hello, and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: the past is never dead — it's not even past. a line from american author william faulkner — much quoted in recent days as race protests spread around the world and countries with a slave trading, colonial past debated how that past infects their present. but before we tackle the problem left over by history, let's talk about the one that is brand new for 2020 — covid—19. many of us are already

behaving as if we're finished with the pandemic — but is the pandemic finished with us? my guests — on socially distanced screens — african affairs analyst, vincent magombe, and we are having some difficulty with his lie at the moment but we hope to bejoined by his lie at the moment but we hope to be joined by vincent. and columnist ian birrell. and here in the studio, observing the two—metre rule, the bbc‘s chief international correspondent, lyse doucet. welcome to you all. let us start with you, ian. we were going to start with vincent, but let's start with the middle east. in the early weeks of the pandemic, many countries in the middle east looked as though they were getting off relatively lightly. what is the situation now? interesting to see that we have had a big decline from

the peak in europe where the who said that it has gone down about 80% cents a month ago. at the same time, a big rise in other countries like pakistan, iran, saudi arabia— all showing a big rise. it's fascinating to see a country like israel, which lockdown very early and tightly, has pretty much return to normality. they have opened up schools again and they are having big problems in schools, they are having to close down a lot of skills. essentially, the region is showing that the countries that have an lockdown as there will played by the problem. the countries that did lockdown, like perhaps pakistan, like israel, like perhaps pakistan, like israel, likejordan, like perhaps pakistan, like israel, like jordan, like saudi like perhaps pakistan, like israel, likejordan, like saudi arabia — those countries are seeing another big rise again to stop so it's very easy sitting here where we are to

think, 0k, it easy sitting here where we are to think, ok, it was a problem, it was a nightmare but is beginning to go away. but if you look around what is happening in the world, you can see very clearly lack this pandemic is still a huge global problem. it's still a huge global problem. it's still raging, they cases are still rising in many parts of the world. lyse, the countries that even a mention, also, india has got problems stop we are seeing brazil now overta ke problems stop we are seeing brazil now overtake the uk in a total numbers. this mysterious new virus is continuing to confound everyone, from the scientist to political leaders to all of us trying to decide how to live our lives in the middle of this pandemic. iran was the first country to have a massive outbreak after wuhan in china, and the world was watching. we knew little about the virus then. it was the first to experience a huge spike, and then it started to ease the lockdown. in a bar now, they

don't want to say it is a second wave. this is what all governments fear, they know it is even more dangerous when you come out of lockdown. in iran, there are far fewer people social distancing, far fewer people social distancing, far fewer people social distancing, far fewer people self—isolating. citizens that are around the world for the first time, but they may not be as ready to do a second time. iran, which did bring up the numbers down to mike in the first week of june, they had something like 3000 cases, that is 50% more than a week before when they started to open. they gradually open, enabling mosques, public parks, malls and shops. it's been a mystery— mosques, public parks, malls and shops. it's been a mystery“ why mosques, public parks, malls and shops. it's been a mystery— why was there so much in iran but hardly anything next door in pakistan or afghanistan? now we are seeing an almost terrifying way for the citizens of pakistan and afghanistan where there is so little testing.

india, 10,000 cases a day, in a country of 1.3 billion people. we saw reports from the bbc this week from our correspondence in india talking about how the big cities like delhi and mumbai are warning that they are going to run out of beds and they haven't reached the peak. while we are talking about second waves, a whole bunch of countries have not even hit the first peak and they are really worried. ian, what about the fact that some had hoped that developing countries would be protected by a youthful demographic in population spectrum and the hot climate? are we com pletely spectrum and the hot climate? are we completely thrown away all hope that those might make a considerable difference? no, the thing about this disease is that it is so unpredictable. the head of the cdc urn in china says recently on

television, this is the seventh coronavirus to affect human beings but it is so different from others and it is behaving in a totally different way. that is a really baffling to scientist. so all the presumption is that it would be ok in at the younger populations— that is not true when you suddenly see a very high percentage of people don't show symptoms. we have there also seen studies that they may not show symptoms but they are getting lung damage, the same sort of lung damage that will have long—term consequences. that will have long—term consequences. after for instance, it was said that it has a young population and a lot of it is currently quite hot, but actually, we have seen another big rise in cases, although some of the data is quite perfunctory. we saw it took 90 days to have the first 100,000 cases and only 18 days to have the second 100,000 cases. now countries in africa are seen very high incidence,

places like sudan and algeria, this was a fully biggest rises in recent days we stop even though scientists are brilliantly working to try to understand is, we still don't have any sense of it. every country has the same issue — protecting people with public health concerns and protecting the economy with all by all the precautions taken. india also seeing one figure, which i'm not sure it is correct, but it's terrifying— namely lose 198 million jobs, which isjust staggering figures. on one hand, there are the hospitals, on the other, this incredible economic damage. i think it is still very difficult but every country, every scientist and every individual to fully understand how we deal with this new virus, which is behaving in such an unpredictable

and new manner. even when you talk to the by scientists, they are still grappling to understand how this disease can infect so many parts of the human body in so many different ways. it is still a nightmare for everyone responsible for taking these huge decisions for their countries. we saw in africa this week, i think the firstly notices come, the prison of brunei. the reports said that he died of a heart attack, immediately on social media, it was said that it could be to you. —— the president of burundi. i heard from our correspondence and africa, they were scrambling to find one ventilator for the president of burundi, they sent a helicopter to get one but it arrived too late. so if the president of burundi doesn't

have a ventilator, spare a fort for the rest of the continent, when it isa the rest of the continent, when it is a question of resources across many countries where they don't have enough testing, not enough laboratories, not enough hospital beds. that is concerned that the cost of the lockdown is much worse than the cost of the disease. i spoke to a biologist in india in recent days, he said that there is the hope that a young country may survive better and that the virus will spread throughout the population, but as we know, hope is not a strategy. from the very beginning of this crisis, this global pandemic, many warned that the disease would spread more slowly in at the parts of the world which we re in at the parts of the world which were least able to cope with the virus, the most fragile and vulnerable countries. just as we are taking a long trip and are hoping the worst is over, others are confronting what could be at the nightmare of their lives. ian,

coming to the question of hope not being a strategy. i want to look at styles of leadership. at this point, we really would have loved to have get more african analysis from vincent but we are still having technical difficulties. we'll come back to africa in more detail on another week. looking at strategies around the world by different leaders, there are strong men are leaders, there are strong men are leaders who often took a very tough line in relation to not wishing to lockdown. egypt, russia, brazil, united states— all those strong men — how does their strategy look now? let's not forget it started in china, and china is effectively led bya china, and china is effectively led by a very strong man at leadership as well, and they try to suppress information and they tried not to shade it. of course, that exploded with dreadful circumstances. one study showed that had china locked

out ina study showed that had china locked out in a wuhan one week earlier, it would have cut cases by 65%. three weeks earlier, when clearly they knew about human transmission, it would have shut down the number of cases by 95%. so we do know what happens we have if they were to share the data. of course, a lot of strong men, we share the data. of course, a lot of strong men, we are share the data. of course, a lot of strong men, we are talking strong men in this case, have seen this as a test of that match your ability, they say they are not going to be cowed by this we can seen that is a stent of the populist leaders in the united states our own country in the uk, we have seen in russia, egypt, hungary. they have all had to be out in very different ways. brazil is still pretending it is not a problem, bolsonaro has even been to protest their against lockdown. president putin has had to finally move on this. they are not showing information on cases, they are going

ahead with the victory but says they had planned early in the year for the anniversary of the end of the war, which they are going ahead with at the end ofjune. a lot of city saying that it will not take place and his popularity has fallen. it is interesting to see what will happen to the style of dictatorial leadership. on the other hand, they have also used it to tighten the power, we seen have also used it to tighten the power, we seen it injordan, azerbaijan, hungary. we even see it ina azerbaijan, hungary. we even see it in a country seen as very democratic, like the uk, which have had to take measures, which in peace time, as it were, would be seen as absolutely outrages in terms of being so autocratic and authoritarian. the question, at the end of the day, when we emerge from this dark time, who then is going to emerge? will this have actually undermined those strong leaders who ignored it or try to suppress it? in russia, we see a couple of technocrats have done very well of

put—in's popularity following, in terms of the prime minister and mayor of moscow. it will be interesting to see what happens there. egypt, where not seen similar in which descent, but we are seeing people being jailed for spreading rumours. so it is being used as a device to further entrench leadership. i think the long—term question, at the end of this, do the populations feel so discouraged by what they have seen that it actually leads to undermine those leaders? in a way, it is too early to tell. i think it is quite possible that in years to come, this will be seen as a very destructive process for some, not all, for some autocratic leaders. line, conversely, there are some saying that it has been a good pandemic, that sort of ridiculous notion, for some female leaders. are

there feminist you so much to advance women at the top of political systems or is there evidence? is interesting with the language of our time. if it is a strong men, it has almost criticism. if you say strong women, it is almost a compliment. i think there are 15 leaders, they go from small caribbean lie in islands, to thailand, germany, new zealand, many nordic countries— they all have the same characteristic and that they respond a fast and firmly. i think it is not like to look at it solely through a gendered lens. angela merkel is a scientist, she responded asa merkel is a scientist, she responded as a very strict scientist, they call hotly up mother. jacinda and hearn in new zealand was there with her big mug of tea, wearing a grey hoodie, say i'm sorry, i'vejust been feeding the baby and i'm

talking to you on facebook. she had a different style. the style was different. it is a very small sample, but a good sample. people are saying that perhaps they were good leaders, they have had good results for their people, but they also have a good systems. may be it isa also have a good systems. may be it is a bit ofa also have a good systems. may be it is a bit of a definition that a country that elected women lead up may already have a better system and society which has proven itself to be able to respond to this pandemic. i know this will be something that our viewers will take different views on. if you want to message is on that, tweet me or you can talk to the programme with the hashtag dateline london. the message on the placards is simple — black lives matter. but what started as a street protest in minneapolis has morphed

into a global movement — notjust marches against police brutality in many countries — but a surge of public pledges by police forces, politicians, football clubs and media giants that they will do more to tackle racism. ian, in the absence of vincent, what do you make of all of this? what are you chiefly see... i gave a long list of the things that are happening and the less the less than three weeks since the death of george floyd— but how would you define this moment? it is fascinating, i was in cha rlottesville fascinating, i was in charlottesville three years ago when there was the unfortunate death of a female protester over this issue of the statues. at the heart of it, there was this issue of black lives matter and the historical reckoning and the behaviour of the police. it

is fascinating to see those protests, which in some ways have been familiar in america over recent years because of the sheer volume and numberof years because of the sheer volume and number of people being killed by police officers, the number of black lives are being wiped out. to see it spread around the world has been extraordinary and fascinating. i have no idea, to be honest, as an economist, and not supposed to say that, but i don't understand why it is not —— it is happening now. is it because the video was so graphic, so unequivocal? was it because people are locked down and have more time to focus on this? i have no idea why it has exploded, but the fact it has is so significant, because it shows that these issues which have a very american flavour, but also affect other parts of the world. i think thatis other parts of the world. i think that is what is so significant, that a lot of countries, most countries,

have a form of institutionalised and structural racism within them. finally, people are saying that this cannot go down, this must change. the big question, of course, is will it change? because we miss vincent, we miss the black voice in this conversation which is frustrating. they might, you are going to have to help me understand the argument in the uk over the past few days about the uk over the past few days about the toppling of a statue of a slave trader, and the argument that has raged ever since about whether removing those public pieces of history and memorialisation is a key pa rt history and memorialisation is a key part of the argument or a distraction about the arguments of dismantling structural racism? distraction about the arguments of dismantling structural racism ?m shouldn't surprise us that their arguments about statues because they are happening and society which has deeply divided, in which not eve ryo ne deeply divided, in which not everyone has lived the same story, not everyone has been through history in on the same way to stop less is catalyse, this is lighting a

spark which is getting people to assess a history of racism, injustice, in britain's case, imperialist history. this week, that have been issues of statues, protecting statues, people trying to topple statues in the netherlands, italy, spain, france — in countries which all have a imperial past. in countries which were former colonies, like new zealand and australia. this new phrase is being used, they are talking about the ledger, people's legend of life. when you talk about church aisle, he did so much for. winston churchill, he did so much for britain, but on at the other side of the ledger, he did things which were seen as a body and even in that time. people say, how do you balance them? it is a fantastic discussion, which is why

art is like a have said, put of a slave trader in bristol again, but redesign its who see people pulling down the statues. in the same way the statues were there to make a statement, now the protest are making a statement. many historians are saying that is a difference between history and statues. statues tell us that this was a person of good standing and you should reveal them, it is it literally set in stone. history should be in the museums. perhaps this will catalyse that we need new statues, ones that meet more to more segments of our society. this is an explosive debate, it is good because it means it matters to a lot of people. when history matters, it means we can interrogate history and hopefully have a better future together. but it is those who feel a sense of injustice, their voices have to be heard and get a response and results

much more than they have in the past, i think that is at the moment of reckoning. ian, i know you have done a lot of question around colonial history. do you think that isa colonial history. do you think that is a best practice here? is there a country which really hasn't a good job of its colonial history? does it even matter? lyse suggested it doesn't matter now going forward— do you agree? last week, i do a column for a newspaper, iwrote you agree? last week, i do a column for a newspaper, i wrote a you agree? last week, i do a column for a newspaper, iwrote a piece about retain the's failure to confront its colonial past. just as i finish, confront its colonial past. just as ifinish, and confront its colonial past. just as i finish, and the statue was pulled down which showed me what i was writing about. —— britain's colonial past. they are two interesting examples outside britain or germany, where they have made efforts and acce pt where they have made efforts and accept the fact they were guilty of

appalling behaviour in namibia, but they are still resolving how to resolve that, how to pay reparations. this has been a very live issue in the past few years but at least germany has taken steps towards a recognition that is imperial legacy was a very dark and bad imperial legacy. belgian has also been interesting, because it was perhaps the worst in terms of its activity, particularly in the congo, whether it'sjust unbelievable atrocities they are perpetuated in the name of king leopold. we have seen again a museum trying to deal with this, the african art museum, and try to change the way it has interpret is history. even when they did, people noticed there was still a statue of theirofa noticed there was still a statue of their of a white missionary holding their of a white missionary holding the hand of a black child, with a plaque which says, belgium brings civilisation to the congo. which is

the strange way of a regime which is to cut peoples hands off if they did not fulfil the rubber quotas. i think it's an important issue, in britain, i think britain has always seen britain, i think britain has always seen itself, still, labour leaders like gordon brown and conservative leaders like david cameron keep saying that we should stop apologising for our past. there this idea that the british regime was better, because we only wanted to steal the money and we ended slavery. of course, it doesn't acce pt slavery. of course, it doesn't accept that 41 in 70 years, british people were involved and got rich off the slave trade. —— 270 years. when it was ending, fittingly impounds in today's money was paid to families who are still some of the richest families in this country. — — the richest families in this country. —— £13 billion. nothing we nt country. —— £13 billion. nothing went to the victims. i think britain has failed to come to terms with his imperialist past, it has failed to

come to towns with the atrocities carried out in places like india and kenya, almost in my lifetime, we had to concentration camps and atrocities going on in kenya just two years before i was born. i think there is this failure to accept that britain 's own imperialist past without distorting to the countries and you're still having an impact. it has led to idea that britain is an exceptional country, and a country which is almost still brilliantly ten, and has fed into the debates on brexit, even now, at the debates on brexit, even now, at the press conferences, you hear politicians say about this as it world beating system and we are showing a world beating response, even showing a world beating response, even though britain has one of the worst responses to the pandemic around the world. for me, it is an important issue about the psyche of our country, and our own failure to come to terms with what we did in the past, it leaves a lot to how we

see the past, it leaves a lot to how we see ourselves today. i really want to see changes in our educational syste m to see changes in our educational system because we have a system in which 25% of the kids in schools are now from black and ethnic minority backgrounds, and we owe it to them and their classmates to explain how our country has become the country it is today. i want to mention a little historical footnote, by no means would i ever equate it to the justice of slavery. i come from a kind of day —— canada, in my a ncestors kind of day —— canada, in my ancestors are at kd in. in order yea rs of ancestors are at kd in. in order years of living in britain, i count on one hand a number of people who recognise my accent, nobody knows about it. this is the first case of ethnic cleansing by britain in the 18th century. for years, the arcadia try to get an apology from her

majesty the queen. i saw a small head of the imperial history almost com pletely head of the imperial history almost completely are history. of course, ian was talking about the need for interrogation and understanding and a reckoning of this history. lyse and ian, thank you both very much. we have missed vincent but you two have been absolutely fascinating. thank you to you for watching. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. stay safe until then. goodbye. hello there. a weekend of sunny spells and showers for most, feeling warm and humid as well. that is because we have

low pressure with us, the same area of low pressure that has given us rain this past week and strong winds. we are losing the strong winds as the low pressure drifts northwards towards our shore, so still quite a keen breeze in the north, but most have lighter winds. the showers will be lengthier but the sunny spells will be lengthier as well. as well as that, i mentioned earlier it will feel warm in the sunshine and humid as well. we have picked up a lot of low cloud for the east coast, another feature of the weather in the next couple of days. really stubborn cloud in some places. it will not clear, keeping it quite cool. in the morning, heading across scotland and clearing away from northern ireland for the sunshine to emerge, and then close to this area of low pressure in the south, we have already had clusters of showers, and this is where they are likely to be most frequent through the day. they are developing elsewhere and will turn heavy and thundery. perhaps some of the heavier showers will be across the midlands and wales, western parts of england and north western england as well. a large hail, locally squally winds and lots of lightning. a lot of dry and sunny weather in between.

that sunshine emerging from northern ireland, feeling warm here. that cloud pushes northwards but there will be quite a bit of rain. north—west highlands as yesterday is seeing some sunshine, 22 or 23 degrees here, but with that sea haar across the north and east, the northern isles will be quite school cool. quite squally. that sea haar will be more widespread through the night. there will be evening showers rumbling way, really active showers through this afternoon and this evening, but then it will ease away to be a warm and muggy night with mist and fog again by morning. but this grey weather, this low cloud here is slow to clear away and could persist for the north sea coast. we could have more rain moving into the north east of england and eastern scotland as well. elsewhere, sunny spells, lengthy spells of sunshine, and light winds are warm, low 20s for many places, but some lively downpours around with some hail and thunder as well. it is likely to remain that sort of picture. putting the detail on where showers are going to be is difficult, but monday, tuesday and wednesday,

we will still have that low pressure with us, so there is potential for more slow—moving showers but equally lengthy spells of strong june sunshine. goodbye.

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