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tv   Coronavirus  BBC News  June 14, 2020 11:30am-12:00pm BST

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officers had tried to arrest rayshard brooks after he failed a breathalyser test — his family's lawyer spoke of his frustration. ican i can see we wantjustice, but i don't know what justice i can see we wantjustice, but i don't know whatjustice is any more. borisjohnson orders a review of the two metre social distancing rule in england, following calls to scrap it. more than 100 people are arrested after a day of violent clashes in central london yesterday, involving far—right activists. a virtual church service is being held to remember the 72 people who died in the grenfell tower fire three years ago. now on bbc news — coronavirus: what next? with coronavirus outbreaks at different stages around
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the world, we explore what might happen as restrictions change and people adjust to a new reality. hello, and welcome to the latest in our special programmes on the coronavirus pandemic. i'm annita mcveigh. on today's programme, the world health organisation says that up to 40% of coronavirus infections could come from people who have no symptoms. plus, how artificial intelligence is helping in the fight against the virus. you can keep up to date with the latest information about the pandemic on our website.
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first, there's growing evidence that a second wave of covid—i9 has hit iran, which was one of the earliest epicentres of the virus, but despite the increase in cases, there is no new lockdown in place yet for the 80 million people living there. some cities have already been announced as red zones for infection. bbc persia has this report. could this be iran's second wave of coronavirus? the country was opened up from lockdown just about a month ago. and this is how it looks like now in one city. buses are being used to transfer covid—i9 patients to the capital of the province. it's one of at least nine provinces where infections are rising rapidly. according to iran's ministry of health, this province in the south—east is now a red zone. the hospitals are full.
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their staff are overwhelmed. last week, iran recorded the highest daily increase in the number of coronavirus cases since the first were reported four months ago. many local officials say this is a second wave of infections. but iran's president insists that the term second wave creates too much fear among people. there are no signs of social distancing here. shoppers and street vendors don't seem too worried. the authorities say this is the reason behind the recent spike, that people have ignored public health advice and travelled to other cities. translation: in last 24 hours, we learned that about 60—70% of the new patients in tehran hospitals have travelled to other cities recently. this has happened during eid al—fitr
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holidays, as we were expecting. as life begins to look relatively normal in large parts of iran, most schools remain closed. but year 12 exams had to go ahead, which according to this student didn't feel safe. translation: they've taken our body temperature, but when we asked them about the results, we were told that the thermometer's broken. then they sent all the students to the exam zone. none of the desks were disinfected. when i wiped my desk with alcohol, the wipe went completely black. iran's official number of confirmed cases is around 176,000 cases, with over 8,000 deaths. but many, including the iranian parliament, believe the correct number of infections is 8—10 times more and the deaths are at least twice as much. the president has warned that
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if people don't follow social distancing, the restrictions may be reimposed. but the economy, already badly hit by us sanctions and corruption, is on its knees. many say that iran can't afford another lockdown, even if the government wants to. the who has admitted there is a big unknown about how many coronavirus infections are caused by people who don't have symptoms of the disease. one of its scientists had suggested it was rare for the virus to be spread this way, but the organisation now says up to 40% of infections could come from people who have no sign of being ill, and that could make the virus harder to stop, as our science editor david shukman reports. this is a message from the government's chief medical officer about coronavirus. if you or anyone in your house... for months, government advice has
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focused on symptoms, how you must isolate if you get them. you should all stay at home. but what about people who don't look as if they have the disease, but are still carrying the virus? like paramedic chelsie mason, who had a test for coronavirus and expected to be clear. i felt absolutely fine. came into work and had the test done, and then a couple of days later i got a call back saying it was positive, so really shocked because i had no symptoms whatsoever. so, how many cases are there without symptoms? a study at addenbrooke‘s hospital in cambridge found that 3% of the staff were positive, but didn't show it. in the us, at a care home in washington state, the numbers were higher. 56% of people with the virus had no indication of being ill. and on the diamond princess, a cruise ship offjapan, as many as 72% of positive cases showed no symptoms at all.
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so, why does it matter if people have the infection, but don't have any symptoms? well, for two reasons. first, if someone becomes infected, it may take five days before they show any signs of illness, but for the 48 hours before their symptoms start, they could be passing the virus on. then there's the category of people who catch the virus and at no stage have any symptoms at all, maybe for ten days or more — no—one really knows. and scientists are desperate to find out how much they can spread the virus. one of the first things i thought about really was, "oh, my god, i've done two night shifts, i've come into contact "with six or seven patients per night, i've been "with my crewmate for 12 hours." as much as you minimise the risk, there is still that risk there, and with me being positive and not knowing about it, i could've passed it on. working out if that's going on now is really difficult. the government's mainly testing
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people who may have symptoms. those who don't might slip through the net. so, scientists in norwich want to test the entire city, 100,000 people. they say it's the only way to discover who's spreading the virus. if you don't realise you're ill, as we come out of lockdown, and people are going to have more contacts than they did previously, the risk from those individuals is likely to increase. the upshot is that keeping a safe distance still matters, and where you can't, governments around the world are recommending face coverings in case you've got the virus and don't know it. david shukman, bbc news. almost 300,000 children in india could die due to severe malnutrition and lack of access to essential life—saving services over the next
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six months, according to a study byjohn hopkins university. the rise in hunger has been made much worse by the coronavirus lockdown, with the country's daily wage earners suffering the most. millions have lost theirjobs and are struggling to feed theirfamilies. this report comes from delhi, where malnutrition levels in children were already some of the highest in the world. too much hunger, too little food. withjobs gone, it's a fight for survival. hunger was always an issue here, but this desperation is new. for these children just outside the capital, delhi, even one meal a day now feels like a triumph. shiva isjust one month old. his parents rely on daily wages to buy food, and like millions of others, they lost work after the government announced a lockdown in march.
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translation: we used to cook rice, rotis and vegetables before the lockdown. our children ate well. now they remain hungry because we have no money and no work. phoolmati's kids are too young to understand why this is happening. children under five are vulnerable to severe malnutrition. india is the worst in the world, with one in five children affected, and that might have become much worse. so, this is almost a perfect storm for malnutrition in this region, with a very vulnerable population, a decline in quality and quantity of diet, and without the access to the essential services that children need to prevent and treat malnutrition. for children who were already malnourished, these months have
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been even harder. this two—year—old's mother says she has lost weight during the lockdown, and her condition could worsen as now they have very little government food support. for more than 45 years, the indian government has run a child development scheme to provide essential nutrients and vitamins to children up to the age of six. during the lockdown, most of the more than 1 million centres shut down during lockdown. now, some of them are trying to home deliver a much smaller quantity of food supplements at a time when they're most critical for young child ren‘s development. now it's ordinary citizens who have stepped up. like neelesh singh, who has been distributing one hot meal a day to 500 children since the past two months. but that's hardly enough.
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translation: i can provide one or two meals, but children need breakfast, lunch and dinner. they're not getting the nutrition they need. despite a surge in coronavirus cases, the lockdown is easing. the government has a huge dilemma — how to stop the deadly spread of the disease and protect the most vulnerable, particularly children, from hunger and even starvation. they haven't yet found all the answers. well, the united nations has estimated domestic abuse has increased by 20% globally during lockdown. some vital services have not been reaching people trapped with their abusers, but women all over the world have set up their own grassroots efforts to help vulnerable women in their own communities. megha mohan has spoken with four women in four countries who set up
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projects to help their neighbours in need. alone and together, these women in the west bank are banging their pots and pans in protest against domestic violence. the un says cases of domestic abuse during the global pandemic have increased by 20%. so, now women all over the world have taken matters into their own hands to help other women in their neighbourhoods. during the west bank's eight—week lockdown, people stood on their balconies in the neighbourhood to let vulnerable women know that their homes were open to them. rabab, who's a woman's counsellor, has been using instagram and whatsapp to reach out to vulnerable women who may be trapped with their abusers.
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more than 4,000 kilometres away in india, women have also set up a local phone line to take calls from isolated women. the provinces that make up the area have some of the highest numbers of domestic violence in india. by taking dozens of calls a day, organising food deliveries,
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kavita can check in regularly with these women so they aren't trapped alone. it's impossible to socially distance in built—up poorer communities. brazil has one of the highest rates of domestic violence. government figures suggest that every two minutes, an act of violence against women is committed in the population of over 200 million people. in mare slum, one of the largest in rio, people can live with more than ten people in one house, sometimes with their abusers. eliana is a community leader in mare. she's employed women, who may be in abusive homes, to cook for people who are homeless during the pandemic.
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during the one—month lockdown in houston, texas, a group of students used social media and dressed in denim so women could approach them if they needed help. for a lot of people, staying at home could lead to potentially worse health outcomes and very dangerous situations. ashri and other volunteers delivered food to dozens of vulnerable women who had been in touch. inside are messages telling them where they can get help if they need it. although many global lockdowns are easing, the world health organization says countries must be on alert for a second wave of covid—19 infections. coronavirus has shown us the importance of local community, and for these women, the strength that comes from looking after each other. what role has artificial intelligence played in our response to covid—19, and how could it shape our lives beyond the pandemic?
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well, after identifying the outbreak in wuhan, one canadian company, bluedot, gathered data on people's movements based on their mobile phone use. this was combined with other information, including flight ticket data, to predict the subsequent spread of the virus. my colleague, lucy hockings, spoke to the ceo of bluedot, dr kamran khan, myura nagendran, an intensive care doctor, and to tabitha goldstaub, chair of the uk government's ai council to discuss the role of ai in the fight against covid—19. she began by asking dr khan about the moment he realised the wuhan outbreak might have parallels with sars. you know, this was on the morning of december 31. we had actually been, at bluedot, building what we call a digital early warning system for infectious diseases for the last six and a half years, and we've been using artificial intelligence to extend our ability to pick up news of outbreaks at the earliest moment possible. you know, what we learned during the sars outbreak,
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which is where i started my career here in toronto just before sars hit back in 2003, was that if we wait for official reports from government health agencies, we may not always get that information in the most timely manner, so we've been using online data from the world's media, health forums and blogs and a wide variety of other sources in 65 languages to monitor for early signals of outbreaks around the world and to process all that vast amount of data, to present the metaphorical needles in the haystack to our subject matter experts. so, we did that on the morning of december 31st, and then our platform also connects, as you've highlighted, to the anonymous data on hundreds of millions of mobile devices and their locations as they move around the world as well as billions of passenger—level flight itineraries. and so, this is really so we can start to get a step ahead and anticipate how an outbreak could rapidly spread across the planet. so, that detection is the first step, but how does ai help with all the steps after that?
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we're also increasingly using ai in experimenting and developing tools to use al to try and better predict where outbreaks might occur. diseases spread around the world all the time, and they don't all cause outbreaks, let alone pandemics. so, these are all active areas of research and development that we are engaged in. and this is something that, as you can imagine, every single microbe is different, so there's quite a bit of ongoing research and development that is needed. myura, you've been working on the front line with covid—19 with patients. how do you see that al could be used to help you in the future? so, i think one of the biggest things we've found with the pandemic is the strain on staffing and resources. so, the big promise of ai for the future in medicine is helping to take away some of that burden, so that doctors and nurses and other clinicians can spend more time with the patients. so, to give you an example, with the covid patients, their lung failure means
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that we have to frequently adjust the settings on the ventilators, and there are algorithms that are being developed that would control that in a sort of closed—loop manner which meant that the staff don't have to be as involved. do you think it could also help with health inequality around the world ? yeah, i think that's another big advantage. so, in many countries where the ratio of doctors per head of the population is much lower, ai could have a big role in terms of access to health care and reducing inequalities. tabitha, how quick is all the development around ai? because it has been said that we've seen two years of development injust two months. yes, that was satya nadella, the ceo of microsoft's quote, and we're hearing that around many other business leaders as well. everyone's really feeling like the rush to get everybody online and connected has laid some really strong foundations for al and those sort of technologies
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to actually thrive, and we're quite excited to see how the progress has meant that we can see, as you've just heard before, within health but also within other areas like online learning, deliveries, business as well. give us some more examples of that, about how it can be used beyond the field of medicine. so, within online learning, i know that a lot of my friends have really benefited from support, support for the teachers and support for them, in terms of using adaptive learning, so there's a company called century tech, for example, which provides for example the students with the best next question for them depending on where they are in theirjourney, so that enables teachers to give them much more personalised support as they've gone through their day and theirjourney. kamran, sell to us the potential of ai in the future. as dr nagendran had mentioned, there are many different applications, i mean, even things in assisting diagnosis
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with analysis of medical imaging. there are many different potentials. i think with respect to some of the work that we're doing at bluedot is really to enhance our ability to monitor and track infectious disease threats in ways that perhaps is beyond the capacity of public health agencies, especially in resource—limited environments, but also to anticipate their dispersions and what kind of consequences may occur. ultimately so that we can be disseminating this type of knowledge faster than the diseases can spread, which we've learned with covid—19 and many other outbreaks can happen very, very rapidly. myura, is there the possibility, though, that we could overhype all of this? i think that's something that we do have to consider. so, obviously there's a lot of enthusiasm when it comes to ai and its potential in health care, but we do need to be careful of the hype, so headlines for example like "ai can spot skin "cancer before your doctor" can make the public think that there's going to be in 5—10 years' time no doctors and ai will have replaced
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everyone, and that's obviously not likely to be the case. i think in terms of how we can improve ai in health care going forward, one of the big factors is more prospective testing and trials of some of these algorithms before they are adopted en masse, and obviously that will depend on the extent to which it's involved in health care. so, for example, an app on your phone that uses ai to monitor your sleeping habits doesn't need as high a burden of proof as something that might be suggesting potential treatments for you. tabitha, what do you see as being the main limitations of ai? i think that it will come down to safety and trust, really. next week, we'll be looking at some of the challenges, but it's obvious that there's been no starker time to see the digital divide than the lockdown. there is so much more that the technical community
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are going to need to do to ensure that we're respectfully serving everybody. i think the biggest limitations are that if we aren't collecting data from vast sums of people, as you said right as we introduced, we will be leaving people out of solutions. kamran, presumably it's notjust those issues that are important, but also that collaboration is widespread, surely, not just within companies and governments and organisations, but around the world, globally? i think this is a really important point. you know, what we need to do when we're responding to these types of threats is we need to turn data into insights, but then those insights have to ultimately be translated into actions. you know, the perspective i take as a clinician who is practising on the front lines is that we need to be empowering the whole of society. so, typically what happens is the public health agencies may first become aware of a potential threat, and then that information gradually trickles down to the front line health care workers industry,
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the public, but sick patients don't end up going to the public health department. they wind up in the hospital emergency department. and so we need to be thinking about ways that we can be translating these insights into actions, and doing this in advance of the emergency, not in the middle of the crisis. and that's it for now. a reminder you can follow me on twitter, or head to the bbc news website for the latest information. thanks for watching. hello there. it's another day of warm, sunny spells for most of us. and some showers, even the odd torrential downpour. we've had plenty of sunshine to start the morning but the clouds being bubbling up. and we've already had some rather persistent clouds near the north sea coast, this is north yorkshire. that's because we've still got this easterly drift coming in off the cool north sea
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with that moist air, that humid air sitting across it. but for many of us, as i said, a lot of dry, settled weather, warm weather as well. but with some big showers brewing up. so the low clouds sitting near the north sea coast could in places be quite stubborn, not clear away. elsewhere, after lots of sunshine first thing, the shower cloud bubbles up, and then we've got the showers coming through, probably fewer than yesterday for the southeast and not as lengthy for the southwest, but there will be some heavy ones, we think wales, the midlands and east anglia, but wouldn't like to rule out the odd one elsewhere. one or two isolated ones for northern ireland, for scotland, as well as that cloud gets burnt back to the coast. but a difference in temperature, 11 on the east coast, probably 22, 23 in the northwest highlands. now, some of these showers will turn out to be slow moving with squally winds near them, hail, frequent lightning, but they will ease overnight.
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and by that stage, we're finding that low cloud coming back in. a warm, humid night, perhaps some patchy rain as well, coming back into eastern parts of england. eastern parts of scotland, because we're just seeing that feed coming in off that easterly breeze that's still with us. that area of low pressure through monday, in fact through monday, tuesday and wednesday, which means a similar setup. but the detail of why the showers will be is quite difficult. so it does look as if we might see another pulse of rain coming back in at some point during the night ahead and into monday across northeast england and scotland. elsewhere, a scattering of heavy showers, heaviest looked to be across the western side of the uk. again, we'll be plagued by low cloud for some coastal areas in the north and the east. come tuesday our low pressure may just reorientate itself a little bit more overhead. so we might see more widespread showers developing going into the afternoon with some heavy ones further east as well. but all the time in the lengthy sunny spells, it's going to be warm temperatures about where they should be for this time of year.
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so into the low 20s. but the unsettled and showery weather, as i mentioned, continues for much of the day. as ever, here's plenty more on our website.
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this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. disturbances break out overnight in the us city of atlanta after a black man is shot dead by police officers. officers had tried to arrest rayshard brooks after he failed a breathalyser test. his family's lawyer spoke of his despair. i don't even know whatjustice is any more, and i have been doing this for 15 years.

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