welcome to you all. last year hong kong was convulsed by months of protest over an extradition bill that risked exposing its citizens to courts in mainland china. now those courts are coming to hong kong along with the mainland's security services and beijing's definition of what constitutes a risk to national security. washington said this legislation would be a breach of international treaty and there'd be consequences if china went ahead. beijing has simply ignored it. so what are the consequences? it's important to understand that hong kong has had a special status and its relationship with washington, separate from the people's republic of china. that is

how people's republic of china. that is now on people's republic of china. that is now on notice. the trump administration has made some gestures, borrowing the export defence materials, some high—tech stuff, some visa... it's hard for washington to go all the way, in pa rt washington to go all the way, in part because the trade relationships between hong kong, china and the us are reciprocal, the impact on hong kongis are reciprocal, the impact on hong kong is particularly reciprocal because the us is one of them —— has one of the largest trade surpluses with hong kong, $31 billion. there isn't an easy answer. trump, in a struggling bed for re—election, it needs to sell agricultural goods to china, china knows that and is tightening the screws. i think what we have seen in hong kong clearly is a reset. we thought it would be this notion of one country, two systems, a more democratic and open system in hong kong that would last 50 years from the handover in 1997. china has moved quickly to change that in the

la st moved quickly to change that in the last year. the us has limited opportunities to really change that. it is moving forward and there can be some gestures, but the us can't stop it. james, how do you say from london's point to be? the uk has been pretty robust in its response so been pretty robust in its response so far, formally declare the new security laws are a legal breach of thejoint declaration, security laws are a legal breach of the joint declaration, the deal done between china and the uk before the handover. they have formally open the doors of the british state to potentially up to 3 million hong kong residents. all of which is pretty consequential. i think the motivation for that is a mixture of factors. apart from people saying it is the right thing to do, there is a sort of residual, not quite gel, but responsibility within the conservative party, that this is unfinished business and they should have offered some of these rights report. on all of the benches, a

growing cultural consensus to be more sceptical, to push back against china more effectively. as ever they will be economic constraints on british behaviour, ultimately. the pointjames british behaviour, ultimately. the point james was just making about the potential offer to 3 million hong kong dollars... —— hong kong peoples. that would be the biggest arrival since opening eu expansion. there is no doubt in my mind the opposition to free movement within the eu was the pivotal issue that led to brexit in the 2016 referendum. now, as you say, potentially huge numbers could be coming from hong kong. it's interesting, borisjohnson was coming from hong kong. it's interesting, boris johnson was asked about this yesterday in an interview and was asked specifically where would they live, what with the do? he couldn't answer. all he could say

was that the numbers aren't as vast, potentially, as those that could have come from the eu. interestingly, he was sort of linking it with free movement any different way. i don't think they clearly thought it through in terms of the practicalities, but i think at this point it is symbolism. as others have suggested, there is very limited leveraged for the uk government. there isn't much for the us government, there is less for the us government, there is less for the uk us government, there is less for the u k government. what can they do? this is an example of something they can appearto this is an example of something they can appear to offer. but i don't think they have worked it through, the office they have no idea how many would come under the circumstances. this is a sort of tentative, symbolic act. as james says, it reflects a growing scepticism about china, a scepticism that i think borisjohnson only partially shares. he always opens his reflections on this by saying, i'm nota

his reflections on this by saying, i'm not a zinno for, and recognises the problem of a breakdown completely in that relationship. because of the difficulties the uk has attempted to achieve this golden area, the invitation to huawei, or a nuclear infrastructure, possibly our rail infrastructure... boris johnson was personally committed to the huawei contract and others in the cabinet were much more sceptical. he is beginning to share some of that scepticism, but my judgment is beginning to share some of that scepticism, but myjudgment is that within that cabinet and the conservative parliamentary party, he is at the less sceptical when of risking a total breakdown with this global superpower. james, the uk has talked about going back to the issue of hong kong itself. of getting some effective coalition together with

international partners. who would evolve and what would it achieve? —— who would that involve? there's questions about countries like the uk can do when they are squeezed between a declining united states thatis between a declining united states that is led by a spontaneous leadership, let's put it like that, and a rising china, how to take operate? osu is it possible to have a coalition of the welling over specific issues? there was a sense of shared responsibilities. other countries, there has been a push back against china on various issues. the canadians are any dispute, the australian this was seen as britain's issue, that's why they want to form some kind of alliance. is it possible for this issue to be a catalyst for greater cooperation? that is the optimistic scenario. coming back to where we

started this particular conversation, the calculation is between beijing and washington, from beijing's point of view at washington, is it calculating? we have seen a washington, is it calculating? we have seen a range washington, is it calculating? we have seen a range of asserting moods, not just have seen a range of asserting moods, notjust hong kong, south china sea, border with india, etc, do you think there is a calculation in beijing that the us leadership is currently distracted and politically divided and that provides an opportunity to be assertive? absolutely. i don't think it isjust china. look at russia, the app passes referendum extending putting's roll up to potentially 2026 -- putting's roll up to potentially 2026 — — put putting's roll up to potentially 2026 —— put in's rule. they have just passed a referendum. the chaos in the us is an opening for so many actors. trump's inability to have a coherent response means that, as we know and we have seen every three and a half years, trump has a very

loud bark, but he doesn't have much ofa bike, loud bark, but he doesn't have much of a bike, he doesn't follow through. —— much of a of a bike, he doesn't follow through. —— much ofa bite. this of a bike, he doesn't follow through. —— much of a bite. this is something they are acutely aware of. china and russia are taking advantage of this. the chaos in the us with the economy, with coronavirus, with the race issue, there is so much distracting americans and trump and congress, it isa americans and trump and congress, it is a perfect time for china to make a move to change the game in hong kong and to make hong kong simply pa rt of kong and to make hong kong simply part of the people's republic of china. staying with you, staying with the us and calculation from the around the world and within the us, we need to look at what a biden presidency may look like, might be different or more of the same? we are only four months which that poll, how is the challenger looking?

four months yesterday, in fact, is election day. it's actually approaching. i think we all know the answer to that, it would be a very different presidency. i think that most americans and much of the world is simply exhausted by trump. biden doesn't have to do very much right now. all of the polls and poll averages give him almost ten points margin on trump, he is ahead in the key swing states by anywhere from 6-10%... key swing states by anywhere from 6—10%... biden, key swing states by anywhere from 6—10%. .. biden, at key swing states by anywhere from 6—10%... biden, at this moment, the election were held but things change so election were held but things change so let's be clear on that. a biden presidency would be more stable, it would be a much more empathetic one, it... and he spent his first four yea rs it... and he spent his first four years as vice president, doing the

same, looking out for workers in the contrary, strategically spending money on trying to getjobs back. it would be a very different america —— looking out for workers in the economy. beginning to think about delivering a new deal on health care, justice, climate, do you think thatis care, justice, climate, do you think that is all realistic? if they can dare to dream in the build—up to autumnal elections, there is no space to dream in politics. the reason i put it like that, it's not that i have doubts about the poles, the polls suggest the democrats are going to do well in november. and that biden appears to be on course for victory. the only scepticism i haveis for victory. the only scepticism i

have is that dreams, in relation to social causes and to health care, as we know in the past when the democrats have been any very strong position, haven't always been realised in reality. that is the qualification. my reading of the current situation is that trump is in serious difficulty. it is now fashionable to assume polls are wrong and, indeed, hillary clinton was well ahead in the build—up to the last presidential election. if they are right, we are in fora massive swing in american politics, with huge changes. whether all those courses you outlined to me in the question will be fully developed and relax, continue to doubt. jeffrey, a quick one on trump's strategy, it quite interesting to see him in south dakota already on friday under the presidential statues at mount

rushmore and talking release have, what is that about? he is playing... assignment he is playing to his base, the hard core republican base, they nativist base. he thinks if he can motivate them immobilise them, that will get him going. he loves those cheering crowds, and he craves them and eat them, they are his oxygen. what is very clear, steamed talks about the post —— he needs them. steve talks about the poles, there are trend lines about attitudes, values, specific cohorts. women and white men who normally vote republican looking to vote for biden because they are fed up. so, trump is my pace that he is .0 is not enough to get him over the line. —— trump's pace is not enough to get him over the line. i think it is really about trump is my ego, his

narcissism just wanting to feed on his cell. normally presidents go to mount rushmore to talk about bringing the country together on the 11th ofjuly with its extraordinary heritage, to say we are one people, critically at this time given the racial divide in the hardship of coronavirus and the economic collapse. you would think this would be time to stand above it all, but true to form, trump is doing the opposite. when mike james, i want to open this up globally. you spent a lot of time talking to diplomats... you spend a lot of time talking to diplomats, are they beginning to imaginea diplomats, are they beginning to imagine a post—trump world? absolutely, but people trying not to cross their fingers and hope one way or another. there is a lot of thinking going on at the moment. what is interesting is, the assumption is not that biden winning

means everything is fine and we go back to a pre—trump era, it is about how life will change. for example, a biden were elected, the expectation is, when the united states makes its foreign policy decisions it will be also more collegiate, notjust announce it on twitter and will try and build alliances... but it may not change what is trying to do. if i don't want to get elected, he is going to have to appeal to people who previously voted for donald trump, meaning he will have to be robust about trade and china... you will not suddenly start cosying up to europeans, because that won't win him votes. more positive on climate change, but don't expect america to rejoin the iran nuclear deal, that sort of taxation is going on at the moment. fascinating, we believe that there. we will be talking about it over the next few months. talking of new deals, british prime minister borisjohnson promised his own version

of roosevelt when he urged the uk to build, build, build. he's always liked iconic projects from cable cars to airports, but is this about something different, the levelling up he promised voters 7 months ago perhaps? not very much that it amounts to. he referred to a total of £5 billion in his speech, which for capital spending, build, build, build, it is tiny. if this was the new labour era player and alistair campbell, i think the media would be an uproar about what they used to obsess about, spend. that this was a focus on presentation, to give a sense of dynamism and mess the pandemic —— spin. rather than a substantial set

of policy announcements. there is a big economic announcement to be delivered by the chancellor next week, so maybe there will be a new substance then, but there wasn't in the speech. it is interesting, i think, that borisjohnson, perhaps sincerely, feels he is more of a keynesian. the first of this government, remember the poor very much about austerity and spending cuts. he frames himself or any benefits of investment and spending, thatis benefits of investment and spending, that is interesting and a challenge and opportunity for the main opportunity labour party in the uk. in practical terms, opportunity labour party in the uk. in practicalterms, building is expensive. in the uk, notoriously it goes over all the original calculations. it is needed, but on a much bigger scale. it is not at all clear where this 5 billion is coming from, let alone the bigger numbers that are realistically required.

a new local lockdown and lesser, how do you read the moment, this reset against this background ?|j do you read the moment, this reset against this background? i think borisjohnson should be against this background? i think boris johnson should be very grateful donald trump as an office, because if he wasn't, johnson would because if he wasn't, johnson would bea because if he wasn't, johnson would be a candidate for the most incompetent leader in the western world. it is very clear, the inconsistent rows about lockdown, the so—called air bridge is opening up, selective countries without a 14 day quarantine, you can go to italy but you can go to portugal portugal has an incredibly low coronavirus infection rate, the kind of arbitrariness of who can open where 22 metres on the register one metre, there are no rules here they are just making it up. —— the two metres. to add insult to injury, his father defies british law, goes to

greece and he sought and shrugs his shoulders, just like you did with dominic cummings. the sort of exceptional, we are special, we are borisjohnson and exceptional, we are special, we are boris johnson and his friends, we don't have to follow the rules for the rest of the day. britain is not buying it. you can see it, when you touch people on the streets, no one knows what to say, what is right. it's basically make up the roles according to your own judgment or ignore them completely. it's a very clear borisjohnson has ignore them completely. it's a very clear boris johnson has lost the plot. when you talked —— when he talks about relaunching the premiership two the thing that saves him, of course, he has got a bass majority and it is not for years till the next election, so maybe he can keep recovering, by this point he is not governing —— vast majority. coming back to some of the detail of the government itself might say that some of the civil service operation is not for poor service, and therefore the government is trying to re—engineer to remake the machinery as it manages a crisis? that must carry

its own risks? potentially, what the government has announced this week is pretty revolutionary stuff. basically saying we want to reshape because of the british state. they wa nt to because of the british state. they want to essentially cut essentially saying british government isn't working, the civil service needs to change, and needs to be more responsive to the needs of the country as a whole. on one hand, very sensible stop, move official site of london, more broad in the recruitment process, more expert, more data focus, slightly less arts graduates, all that sort of stuff. on the other hand, pretty radical stop, in terms of, the effectively sacked the head of the civil service this week. several permanent secretaries going a little bit earlier. the announcement already made that they're going to merge the foreign office and the department for international development. on the one hand, a school of thought saying this is really interesting stuff and actually government doesn't interchange. may be a crisis is exactly once a day? -- and

actually the government does need to change. the government in the second world war, but an all—out war of national existence, but thinking very cleverly about how to establish welfare and the welfare state. the risk, though, is that it is too violent and way of the system trying to cut all this lot is to blame us for everything, now they are blaming... —— all this lot used to blame brussels for everything, now they want to blame the civil service. we will see... story you think isn't getting enough attention? may we mentioned in passing, but i will talk about it for 30 seconds. it all the other things we are talking about when happening, they would be a massive focus on brexit. it is as if it is

all over, given the proportionate level of coverage these days. but it is not. the decision made to not extend these talks means that a deadline is hurtling towards us in the uk, and indeed in the eu, to resolve the many issues which have still got to be resolved. basically, thatis still got to be resolved. basically, that is a couple of months, because after that they have got to be ratified by all the different parties. they are working full time, having not seen each other for months because of colgate. —— covid—19. this is a massively ambitious objective to get everything sorted out in that kind of timescale. if not, that old phrase no—deal, which was dominating asa phrase no—deal, which was dominating as a threat before last autumn, wade bis back on the agenda again. under

normal circumstances —— is back on the tenth again. this would normally be under huge media focus, but because of everything else, it is subterranean, but it is a massive story. keep an eye out on this, it has not gone away. jeffrey, what about you ? has not gone away. jeffrey, what about you? he stole my thunder because i can put the agree, that is the single most important story that the single most important story that the uk is not boxing on. to add to what he said about brexit, to stage and 38 this week marked a major milestone, —— tuesday, june 30, the final day to ask for a transition to the brexit transition period. now the brexit transition period. now the clock is ticking. december 31, deal or crash out. to add to what they've said, the thing so insidious about this, under the cover of coronavirus economic collapse, which

has hampered hospitality and retail, now we are talking about potential hits on manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, otherareas hits on manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, other areas that are somewhat pharmaceuticals, other areas that are somewhat more pharmaceuticals, other areas that are somewhat more resilient under coronavirus, and dominic cummings, borisjohnson are coronavirus, and dominic cummings, boris johnson are driving the train full speed with no breaks towards december31, and under full speed with no breaks towards december 31, and under the cover of coronavirus, we are in danger of seeing an even further economic massive impact on the economy, perhaps blaming coronavirus. it is reason to be very nervous. when my class up to you, james. very quickly, keep your eyes on ethiopia and egypt. we have been possibilities of a real water were taken prisoner. possibilities of a real water were ta ken prisoner. if possibilities of a real water were taken prisoner. if the about, ethiopia is threatening —— ethiopia

is threatening to fill a dam there. there's been talk about this for yea rs, there's been talk about this for years, but it is coming to a head. there is a huge response ability for the united nations to come in and try and resolve this dispute. a very real issue that the world is not looking at. nothing to do it london or the looking at. nothing to do it london orthe uk, but looking at. nothing to do it london or the uk, but a real issue that is suddenly going to come upon us and can be very important. is one of thoseissues can be very important. is one of those issues where we lack the kind of international diplomatic coalition of the willing? it is exactly the kind of dispute that is regional, the united nations should be able to get involved and to provide a forum for debate, discussion to take place, for people to sort of take positions, find some common ground. clearly it is a common ground. clearly it is a common ground, but at the moment they are failing to find it. because they are failing to find it. because the united nations at the moment is gridlocked, and finding it very difficult to be useful in the scenarios, it is not performing as some people would like to at the moment. thanks so much for drawing

that our attention. thank you to all three, anotherfascinating discussion. can we do see you all backin discussion. can we do see you all back in the studio, geoffrey and steve. james, thanks for being here. thank you to you for watching. that is set for dateline london, we are back next week, simply same time. goodbye for now. —— same place, same time. hello there. if you cast your minds back to last weekend, you'll remember we had an area of low pressure which brought some wet and rather windy weather to the british isles. this weekend looks even windier and unusually windy for the time of year, particularly into sunday, with a risk of widespread gales and all of us will see some rain at times as well.

before we reach that very windy spell, it looks like it will be a breezy day for saturday. winds coming in from the west and south—west, driving a lot of very warm and humid air off the atlantic. going to be a rather cloudy and muggy day today, thickest of the cloud always across the western hills of england, wales and scotland, a bit of low cloud, some murk as well through the afternoon. across the east, bit of shelter could see a brightness, certainly east of the high ground, some sunshine which will make it feel quite warm, around 20 celsius. mid to high teens further north. the wind picks up this evening and overnight and turns gale force across the north west, heavy rain sweeps its way westwards, bouts of rain also sweeping across england and wales. initially, it will be quite a warm and muggy night but fresh air will start to move in as the winds begin to pick up. sunday looks very unsettled, it is a very deep area of low pressure forjuly. lots of isobars on its southern flank, indicating strong winds and this is the cold front that should be spreading across the uk.

eventually clearing the south—east early on sunday, then it is a bright day, plenty of sunshine for england and wales, particularly further east, lots of showers into the north and west of the country, some heavy scotland, northern ireland, northern england, and it is here, swathes of very strong winds, 50 to 60 mph gusts which could cause disruption and damage in places. further south, 30 to 40 miles an hour, so very blustery indeed forjuly, it will feel more like autumn. slightly fresh feel to the air, temperatures generally around the mid to high teens. as we head on into next week, that deep low pushes off into scandinavia, we start to see high—pressure nosing in from south—west, that will gradually settle things down. monday and tuesday, will be on the cool side with north—westerly winds but there should be fewer showers around. that said, monday is still a blustery day, not as windy a sunday and the wind is still driving in a few showers across central and eastern parts of the country but it will be drier further south and west, closer to that area of high pressure.

it will feel on the cool side, temperatures of 17 to 20 degrees.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. a major easing of the coronavirus lockdown comes into effect in england — with pubs, restaurants, hotels, and cinemas all able to re—open. it is going to be a bit touch and go figuring out how we are going to make everything as safe as possible, but i am pretty reassured by the systems we have got in place. some hairdressers in england have been open since midnight. businesses will have to have new rules and procedures in place. a local lockdown comes into force in the city of leicester. hospitality businesses aren't allowed to open and social gatherings and overnight stays are banned. president trump, speaking at an event celebrating