this is bbc news, the headlines: independence day in the us is overshadowed by another big increase in coronavirus cases. the president faces a tough re—election campaign and is eager to mobilize his political base. at the celebrations he defended the nations past heroes. and at the washington monument in the capital, protestors from the black lives matter campaign group and pro—trump make america great again demonstrators have gathered in large numbers, as a fireworks display takes place. 200,000 people are back in lockdown in part of spain's catalonia region, after a sharp rise in infections in segria, a zone that includes the town of lleida, some 150 kilometres west of barcelona. a major easing of the coronavirus lockdown is in effect in england, with pubs, restaurants, and hotels able to re—open. pubs opened for the first time in 3 months, but there are reports that social distancing became harder to enforce as the day wore on.

now on bbc news, dateline london hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. this week: beijing's birthday gift to hong kong. national security legislation that dramatically shrinks the space for political expression. joe biden‘s bid for votes: what does the challenger promise to do different? and build, build, build: boris johnson re—launches his premiership. my guests on socially distanced screens, north american writer and broadcaster jeffrey kofman. british political

commentator steve richards. and here in the studio observing the two metre rule, the bbc‘s diplomatic correspondent james landale. welcome to you all. last year hong kong was convulsed by months of protest over an extradition bill that risked exposing its citizens to courts in mainland china. now those courts are coming to hong kong along with the mainland's security services and beijing's definition of what constitutes a risk to national security. washington said this legislation would be a breach of international treaty and there'd be consequences if china went ahead. beijing has simply ignored it. so what are the consequences? it's important to understand that hong kong has had a special status and its relationship with washington, separate from the people's republic of china. that is now on notice.

the trump administration has made some gestures, borrowing the export defence materials, some high—tech stuff, some visas. it's hard for washington to go all the way, in part because the trade relationships between hong kong, china and the us are reciprocal, the impact on hong kong is particularly reciprocal because the us is one of its the largest trade surpluses with hong kong, $31 billion. there isn't an easy answer. trump, in a struggling bed for re—election, it needs to sell agricultural goods to china, china knows that and is tightening the screws. i think what we have seen in hong kong clearly is a reset. we thought it would be this notion of one country, two systems, a more democratic and open system in hong kong that would last 50 years from the handover in 1997.

china has moved quickly to change that in the last year. the us has limited opportunities to really change that. it is moving forward and there can be some gestures, but the us can't stop it. james, how do you see it from london's point to be? the uk has been pretty robust in its response so far, it's formally declare the new security laws are a legal breach of the joint declaration, the deal done between china and the uk before the handover. they have formally open the doors of the british state to potentially up to 3 million hong kong residents. all of which is pretty consequential. i think the motivation for that is a mixture of factors. apart from people saying it is the right thing to do, there is a sort of residual, not quite guilt, but responsibility within the conservative party,

that this is unfinished business and they should have offered some of these rights report. on all of the benches, a growing cultural consensus to be more sceptical, to push back against china more effectively. as ever there will be economic constraints on british behaviour, ultimately. the point james was just making about the potential offer to 3 million hong kongers, that would be the biggest arrival since opening eu expansion. there is no doubt in my mind the opposition to free movement within the eu was the pivotal issue that led to brexit in the 2016 referendum. now, as you say, potentially huge numbers could be coming from hong kong. it's interesting, borisjohnson was asked about this yesterday in an interview and was asked specifically where would they live, what with the do?

and was asked specifically where would they live, what would they do? he couldn't answer. all he could say was that the numbers aren't as vast, potentially, as those that could have come from the eu. interestingly, he was sort of linking it with free movement in a different way. i don't think they clearly thought it through in terms of the practicalities, but i think at this point it is symbolism. as others have suggested, there is very limited leveraged for the uk government. there isn't much for the us government, there is less for the uk government. what can they do? this is an example of something they can appear to offer. but i don't think they have worked it through, they have no idea how many would come under the circumstances. this is a sort of tentative, symbolic act. as james says, it reflects a growing scepticism about china, a scepticism that i think borisjohnson only partially shares. he always opens his reflections on this by saying,

i'm not a xenophobe for, and recognises the problem of a breakdown completely in that relationship. because of the difficulties the uk has attempted to achieve this golden area, the invitation to huawei, or a nuclear infrastructure, possibly our rail infrastructure... borisjohnson was personally committed to the huawei contract and others in the cabinet were much more sceptical. he is beginning to share some of that scepticism, but myjudgment is that within that cabinet and the conservative parliamentary party, he is at the less sceptical when of risking a total breakdown with this global superpower. james, the uk has talked about going back to the issue of hong kong itself. of getting some effective coalition together with international partners.

who would that involve and what would it achieve? there's questions about countries like the uk can do when they are squeezed between a declining united states that is led by a spontaneous leadership, let's put it like that, and a rising china, how do they cooperate? is it possible to have a coalition of the welling over specific issues? there was a sense of shared responsibilities. other countries, there has been a push back against china on various issues. the canadians are any dispute, the australian with the chinese. this was seen as britain's issue, that's why they want to form some kind of alliance. is it possible for this issue to be a catalyst for greater cooperation? that is the optimistic scenario. coming back to where

we started this particular conversation, the calculations between beijing and washington, from beijing's point of view at washington, is it calculating? we have seen a range of asserting moods, notjust hong kong, south china sea, border with india, etc, do you think there is a calculation in beijing that the us leadership is currently distracted and politically divided and that provides an opportunity to be assertive? absolutely. i don't think it isjust china. look at russia, it passes referendum extending putin's rule up to potentially 2026. they have just passed a referendum. the chaos in the us is an opening for so many actors. trump's inability to have a coherent response means that, as we know and we have seen every three

and a half years, trump has a very loud bark, but he doesn't have much of a bight, he doesn't follow through. this is something they are acutely aware of. china and russia are taking advantage of this. the chaos in the us with the economy, with coronavirus, with the race issue, there is so much distracting americans and trump and congress, it is a perfect time for china to make a move to change the game in hong kong and to make hong kong simply part of the people's republic of china. staying with you, staying with the us and calculation from the around the world and within the us, we need to look at what a biden presidency may look like, might be different or more of the same? we are only four months which that poll, how is the challenger looking?

four months yesterday, in fact, is election day. it's actually approaching. i think we all know the answer to that, it would be a very different presidency. i think that most americans and much of the world is simply exhausted by trump. biden doesn't have to do very much right now. all of the polls and poll averages give him almost ten points margin on trump, he is ahead in the key swing states by anywhere from 6—10%. sometimes higher. biden, at this moment, the election were held things would change so let's be clear on that. a biden presidency would be more stable, it would be a much more empathetic one, it... and he spent his first four years

as vice president, doing the same, looking out for workers in the contrary, strategically spending money on trying to getjobs back. it would be a very different america —— looking out for workers in the economy. beginning to think about delivering a new deal on health care, justice, climate, do you think that is all realistic? if they can dare to dream in the build—up to autumnal elections, there is no space to dream in politics. the reason i put it like that, it's not that i have doubts about the poles, the polls suggest the democrats are going to do well in november. and that biden appears to be on course for victory. the only scepticism i have is that

dreams, in relation to social causes and to health care, as we know in the past, when the democrats have been any very strong position, haven't always been realised in reality. that is the qualification. my reading of the current situation is that trump is in serious difficulty. it is now fashionable to assume polls are wrong and, indeed, hillary clinton was well ahead in the build—up to the last presidential election. but if they are right, we are in for a massive swing in american politics, with huge changes. whether all those courses you outlined to me in the question will be fully developed and realized, i continue to doubt. jeffrey, a quick one on trump's strategy, it quite interesting to see him in

south dakota already on friday under the presidential statues at mount rushmore and talking really tough, what is that about? he is playing to the base. he is playing to his base, the hard core republican base, they nativist base. he thinks if he can motivate them immobilise them, that will get him going. he loves those cheering crowds, and he craves them and needs them, they are his oxygen. what is very clear, steamed talks about the polls. steve talks about the poles, there are trend lines about attitudes, values, specific cohorts. women and white men who normally vote republican looking to vote for biden because they are fed up.

so, trump's base that he is plays to is not enough to get him over the line. i think it is really about trump is my ego, his narcissism just wanting to feed on his cell. normally presidents go to mount rushmore to talk about bringing the country together on the 4th ofjuly with its extraordinary heritage, to say we are one people, critically at this time given the racial divide in the hardship of coronavirus and the economic collapse. you would think this would be time to stand above it all, but true to form, trump is doing the opposite. james, i want to open this up globally. you spent a lot of time talking to diplomats. are they beginning to imagine a post—trump world ? absolutely, a lot of decisions are on hold but people trying not to cross their fingers and hope one way

or another. there is a lot of thinking going on at the moment. what is interesting is, the assumption is not if biden wins, everything's fine and we go back to a pre—trump era, it is about how life will change. for example, if biden were elected, the expectation is, when the united states makes its foreign policy decisions and it will be also more collegiate, not just announce it on twitter. and will try and build alliances, but it may not change what is trying to do. if i don't want to get elected, he is going to have to appeal to people who previously voted for donald trump, meaning he will have to be robust about trade and trump — and china. he won't suddenly start cosying up to europeans, because that won't win him votes. more positive on climate change, but don't expect america to rejoin the iran nuclear deal,

that sort of thing going on at the moment. fascinating, we have to leave that there. we will be talking about it over the next few months. what about this build, build, build by boris johnson? i don't think it amounts to very much. £5 billion, for capital spending, build, build, build, is tiny. if this was the new labour era of alistair campbell, i think the media would be in an opera about spin. this was a focus on presentation to give a sense of dynamism admits to the pandemic rather than a substantial policy set

of announcements. there is a big economic announcements be delivered by the chancellor next week, so maybe there will be new substance than, but there wasn't really in the speech. it is interesting, i think, that boris johnson speech. it is interesting, i think, that borisjohnson perhaps sincerely feels is more of a keynesian. the challenge for the opposition party. but in practical terms, buildings expensive, and in the uk, they notoriously go original calculations. now it is needed, but ona calculations. now it is needed, but on a much, much bigger scale. and it isn't at all clear where this £5 million is coming from, let alone the bigger numbers that are realistically required.

and jeffrey, all of this in a moment where we are seeing this we can lockdown lifted in england, hopes for northern ireland, scotland and wales. but at the same time, a new local lockdown investor, how do read the moment, this reset against the background? —— the moment, this reset against the background ? —— lockdown the moment, this reset against the background? —— lockdown in leicester. boris johnson should be glad that donald trump is in office, because otherwise he would be a clear candidate for most incompetent leader in the world. the so—called air bridges being opened up for selective countries without a 14 day quarantine, you can go to italy but you can't go to portugal, portugal has a low coronavirus infection rate. the kind of arbitrariness of white and who can open where —— what, two metres being reduced to one metre, they're just what, two metres being reduced to one metre, they'rejust making up the rules and to add insult to injury, his father british law or

recommendations went to greece and shrugged his shoulders, just like you did with dominic cummings. —— he did. so, we are special because we are borisjohnson did. so, we are special because we are boris johnson and did. so, we are special because we are borisjohnson and his friends, we don't have to follow the rules by the rest of you do. written is not buying it and you can see it when you talk to people on the streets. nobody knows what is saved, what is right, it's basically make up the rules according to your own judgement or ignore them completely. i think it's very clear boris johnson has lost the plot. when you talk about relaunching the premiership, the thing that saves him of course is he's got this vast majority that is four years until the next election. maybe he can recover, but at this point he is not recovering. and james, coming back to some of the detail of theirs. the government itself might say, some of the civil service operations are not fit or purpose and have a governance problem and therefore it is trying to re—engineer to make the machinery

as it handles a crisis. that must carry its own risks? what the government announced this week is pretty revolutionary stuff and basically saying with —— we basically saying with —— we basically want to reshape the core of the british state. single, british government is really working, the civil service needs to change and be more sponsor but will out change and be more sponsor but will our responsive to the —— be more responsive to the needs of the country as a whole. so the recruitment process, making sure there are more experts, it's more data focused, you are arts graduates, all that sort of stuff. but on the other hand it is pretty radical stuff in terms of they have effectively sacked the head of the civil service this week, several permanent secretaries are going. we've got the announcement already made that they are going to merge the foreign office and department of international development. so on one hand there is a school of thought saying that, this is really interesting stuff and actually government does need to change and in the example of covid—19, changes

do need to be made. and a crisis may be exactly when to do it? there are that's the point. made use governance and i was change —— my view is that governments can always change. during world war ii, the government for a warfor change. during world war ii, the government for a war for all our national existence as well as thinking about welfare and establishing the welfare state. the risk is it is too violent, too revolutionary and it is just the way the system — this lot used to blame brussels everything, now they blame the civil service. if it goes down that route, then i think the chance of this being very choppy is very real. we on have a couple more minutes. i want to give you all the opportunity to focus on as though we have discussed and feel hasn't got enough attention. steve, go first. i'm going to mention it in passing, focus on it for 30 seconds. if all of the things we were talking about weren't happening, there would be a massive focus of the moment on

brexit. it's as if it is all over, given the proportionate level of coverage these days. but it's not. and the decision made to not extend these talks means that either the is hurtling towards us in the uk. —— the deadline is hurtling towards us and these issues have still got to be resolved. a sickly, that's a couple of months, because after that they have to be ratified by all of they have to be ratified by all of the different parties and they are working full—time, having not seen each other for months because of covid—i9, but this is a massively ambitious objective to get everything sorted out. and in that kind of timescale. if not, that old phrase" no deal." which dominated as a threat before last autumn, it

would be back on the agenda again. and under normal circumstances, this would be causing huge media focus at the moment, but because of everything else, it's a bit subterranean. but it's a massive, massive story. it's about the future of the economy in the uk, and in a lesser way, for the eu. given i am that, it hasn't gone away. thanks for that. jeffrey, what about you? even stole my thunder. i completely agree. i think that's the most important story the uk is not focusing on. and as to what he said about brexit, tuesday, 2:30pm this week, a major milestone because that was the final day to ask for an extension to the brexit transition period. now the clock is really ticking. december 31, dealer cash out and i think afterwards stephen said, the thing that is so insidious about this is that under the cover

of coronavirus economic collapse, which has hammered hospitality and retail, now we're talking about a potential hit on on pharmaceuticals, other areas that are somewhat more resilient to coronavirus. and dominic cummings, boris johnson are driving this tranquil speed with no breaks towards december 31 —— train out will speed —— train at full speed and we could see a massive impact on the economy, blamed on perhaps coronavirus when it is going to be much worse if they don't figure this out. so people have reason to be very, very nervous. james, last thought to you. you want to talk about brexit array something else? very quickly, just keep your eyes on ethiopia and egypt. we have the possibilities of a real water award taking place there was that ethiopia is threatening in coming days to start filling a dam,

restricting water in what is the blue now that eventually ends up in the nile stop —— blue nile becomes the nile stop —— blue nile becomes the nile stop —— blue nile becomes the nile river. there is pressure on the nile river. there is pressure on the un to step in and resolve this dispute, but a very, very real issue that the world is not looking up. not to do with the uk, but it is an issue that will come upon us and be very real. is it one of those issues where we like the kind of international diplomatic coalition of the willing? it's exactly the kind of dispute that is original, that the united nations should be able to get involved in and provide able to get involved in and provide a forum for debate and discussion to ta ke a forum for debate and discussion to take place, for people to take positions and find some common ground. there clearly is a common ground, but at the moment they are failing to find it. because the united nations at the moment is gridlocked and finding it very, very difficult to be useful in these scenarios, it is not performing as

something like that. well, thank you something like that. well, thank you so much for doing that to our attention and thank you to or three other fascinating discussions. —— for your three other fascinating discussions. thank you all for joining and thank you to you for watching. that is it the dateline london this week, we're back next week, same place, same time. goodbye for now. hello, the first half of the weekend was grey and breezy for most of us. the second half of the weekend is looking thoroughly windy, unusually windy for the time of year. expecting gales and places through the day ahead. it should be a bit of sunshine but also some showers. low pressure firmly in charge of the scene. this looks more autumnal than summer. lots of white lines you can see

on the chart, isobars, with the wind is strong throughout the day. a frontal system bringing patchy cloud into the south—east first thing, which will clear quickly, and then a fair amount of sunshine. some showers as well, some of those will be really heavy. particularly across parts of northern england, northern england and scotland. there could be the odd flash of lightning, the rumble of thunder mixed in. these are the wind gusts you can expect. the windiest weather of all across parts of ireland, scotland. gusts of 50—60 miles per hour and maybe stronger winds to the east of the pennines. that could cause disruption to travel, particularly for high—sided vehicles. it will feel relatively cool. as we head through sunday night, you can see further showers in the forecast, particularly across the northern half of the uk. it stays fairly windy. i think the winds will ease a little as we head into the first part of monday. and also it's going to be a slightly cooler, fresher night. temperatures in a few spots getting down into single digits.

welcome to bbc new. i'm lewis vaughan jones. our top stories: independence day in the us is overshadowed by another big increase in coronavirus cases, and president trump defends the nations‘ past heroes. we will not throw away our heroes, we will honour them and we will prove worthy of their sacrifice. and at the washington monument in the capital, protestors gathered in large numbers, as fireworks light up the 11th ofjuly night sky. a major easing of the coronavirus lockdown in england, with pubs, restau ra nts, and hotels able to re—open. more than 200,000 people are back in lockdown in part of spain's catalonia region, to the west of barcelona.