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tv   Talking Movies  BBC News  July 28, 2020 1:30am-2:01am BST

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the latest headlines for you from bbc news. the world health organization has said covid—19 is easily the most via global health emergency it has ever declared. tedros ghebreyesus said he would reconvene an emergency committee this week to review its assessment of the pandemic. in brazil, one of the worst affected countries, workers urging the international criminal court to investigate president bolsonaro's government. they accuse of crimes against humanity, over its handling of the virus. over 2.5 million cases have been recorded there. spain's i minister strongly criticised the uk was my decision to impose a quarantine on everyone arriving from his country. pedro sanchez said british tourists were safer from the virus in most regions of spain and they were at home. there is particular anger at the decision to include the balearic and canary islands.
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it is abouti:30am. it is about 1:30am. you are up—to—date on the headlines. time alpha dateline london. hello. welcome to dateline london. i'm carrie gracie. exceptional, existential, expensive, but what does the eu's recovery deal mean? dirty laundry as the british parliament publishes its report on russian influence. and a leader who got brexit done or the one who lost lives and lost the union? we assess boris johnson's first year in downing street.
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our guests on socially—distant screens are a correspondent from the economist, and we are having a technical problem, we are hoping for another commentator as well. in the studio we have the bbc chief international correspondent lyse doucet. welcome, arkady. fingers crossed we can get thomas. last week's european summit on a post—covid economic rescue package was a cliffhanger even by eu standards. germany and france urged exceptional measures. the so—called "frugal four" wanted exceptional to be less expensive. cue arguing for days and nights and even banging on tables, but eventually the deal was done. arkady, i will come to you first. european leaders called it historic. is that fair? it is historic.
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it is short of that hamilton moment when in the late 18th century the us central bank effectively became the main carrier of debts of separate states, but it is a hugely important moment. because let's just think back a few months ago. nobody really thought that the eu could come together in this way. we were talking about how different countries would be left high and dry, how difficult it would be. it is a sign of unity. massive deal — 750 billion euros and what is really important is a lot of it will be given out in grants rather than loans, so it is a real sign of unity and we have lived through and are still living through extraordinary times and they do call for extraordinary measures. lyse, is this a solution to problems or a solution to one set of problems that creates further problems down the line? that is the problem.
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because as arkady said, this was truly historic. never have they agreed to take on so much money collectively. we discuss it time and again, the tension between the so—called frugal states in the north and those in the south. and the drum beat of warnings that the very existence of the union was at stake and particularly for angela merkel in the twilight years of her rule, not just as german leader but european leader, she knew she had to get this consensus, and i think this mattered more than anything else. so it was "ground—breaking", to use the word, but the compromises were breathtaking, and the cost, particularly in the medium to long—term, could actually lead to a breakdown in some of the important values of the bloc, including liberal democratic values, respect for the rule of law and reform.
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gosh, that's a big statement. how do you figure that? why does it lead to a potential breakdown in all of that? certainly starting with a chipping away. there are three areas people are pointing to. this mattered more than anything, especially now in this coronavirus crisis — where from the very beginning italy said we called up everyone and nobody came to our help. and european leaders recognised that they failed to respond in a timely way when there should be european solidarity. in order to get a consensus angela merkel has assured the hungarian leader that she will try to push forward the disciplinary measures which had been agreed by the european parliament out of concern over what was described as systemic damage to the rule of law and to democratic values. viktor orban said he did not want this hanging over his head, so this recovery fund is not linked to the behaviour of states. and there is a concern
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that in the long run this is going to allow some of the members of the bloc who've been drifting away from some of the principles, drifting toward autocratic rule, prime minister orban would say we are doing what hungarians want. number two is the question of monitoring. one of the compromises that was made for the frugal states led by the netherlands was there should be tougher monitoring notjust by the european commission but by the member states. but what about italy? it is one of the most needy states and regarded as needing the most reform and root—and—branch, comprehensive reform. is that going be possible? or is it for years to come or be like the greek crisis? journalists who covered that know it never stopped being in the headlines. and then finally, and the european commission president recognised
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this, there is a smaller european budget post—brexit, and what about the projects which matter? projects which, again, in the climate crisis, health fund, some of the projects also matter to european countries and their future, post—pandemic, if there is a post—pandemic, have either been reduced or cut back completely. mm, lots of good questions there. arkady, your thoughts on all of that? haven't they just broken a bunch of their fiscal rules? does it matter? and where does all of this leave the actual engine of the european economy, the actual business functioning of europe? well, on the rules, yes, i think, in a sense, they have. but covid has broken all the rules. we are not living in the same world in which the rules were made in the first instance. if you do not change your opinion when facts change
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then you are stuck. i am not too worried about that. i think the cost of borrowing is going to remain very low and i don't think this is going to be economically a huge problem of repayment. it could give the eu extra powers in taxation. the contribution from member states might have to increase but i am not sure in political terms whether this could lead to a break—up. i would question that, actually, because i think what is happening... i didn't say break—up. not break—up, but whether this could lead to more problems down the line. i think there is a new dynamic here, which is that the european commission and the european union is winning hopefully support and legitimacy in individual member states directly. you know, this is a huge
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injection of money and aid. i think it will be much harder, hopefully, for nationalist, populist politicians to appeal to their own electorates in sort of stoking anti—eu, anti—global feelings, as viktor orban has been doing, because there is a direct appeal to the people in those countries and i wonder if this spells potentially quite bad news for people like victor orban. i think the biggest question will be whether southern states like italy can actually manage the structural reforms. i agree that the conflict between the demands of the european union in how this money needs to be spent, how it needs to notjust be kind of splashed around
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on things that we know don't work, how it needs to go towards more climate change, green energy structural reform and so on, et cetera, how that is going to potentially clash with the priorities of national governments. and i do see in that sense conflict there, but i think there is a new party in all this, there is a new sort of bond, if you like, between the european union and electorates in member states. fascinating discussion, both of you. but we are going to leave it there. there will be weeks and months to come back and examine how it is progressing. next topic — the british public has waited many months to hear parliament's verdict on russian influence in their politics. and when it came, the report was a grim read, accusing london of badly underestimating the threat posed by moscow. arkady, i want to come back to you on that. i know you will have read all of that closely. was there anything in it to surprise you?
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well, to be honest, what really surprised me is how thin in detail this report was. i mean, the first reaction was is this something really worth holding up for so long? i mean, what was it they were trying to, the government was trying to keep out of the media? there is not really that much there on the detail of the allegations of russia's interference. we know russia interferes in western states. we know it interfered with the scottish referendum. we know it obviously interfered in the us elections. it interfered in spain and catalonia in that referendum, but in terms of the just concrete evidence, it was incredibly thin. to me that showed the unwillingness of security services to cooperate with the inquiry — possibly because they didn't want to play a part in politics
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— but the feeling amongst those who follow russia, as i do, and russia experts, spook experts, was, is this it, really? i don't think the public got the answer on whether russia really interfered in the brexit referendum. perhaps the most shocking thing was that the government didn't actually want the inquiry to be launched. and that is the conclusion of the report, that we don't know whether russia interfered or not because we never asked. lyse, your initial thoughts on seeing the report? well, just following up on what arkady said, many commented that this has said more about britain than it has about russia, that if you don't ask about something, then you won't know about something. and there haven't been enough tough questions asked about the money coming into london, about what kind of people were coming into london, where they were linked or not to the kremlin,
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what about the financial system, the laws, about money coming in? hence this terrible phrase london a "laundromat" where money is rinsed then of course it is spun in the way this financial engagement has been discussed. and it was also pointed out the intelligence community didn't make it a priority, which is surprising because you talk to individual members of the intelligence community and they always say that counter—terrorism is an important priority but they also cite russia, and they have been doing that for many years. but some felt that perhaps, and obviously for legitimate reasons, counter—terrorism, given the attacks, attempted and actual attacks there in britain, linked to the islamic state and other extremist groups, that that is where their focus had to be. will it be a wake—up call?
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i think big questions are now being asked and as arkady said, why was it delayed for nine months? why did it take changes to the intelligence community for it to be released? that raises questions as well. arkady, you talked about the report but the underlying issues that lyse has been addressing, i am interested in your views on what you see as the motives for this neglect? do you see it as a bandwidth problem, that there was too much going into counter—terrorism to have the space for the intelligence agencies to deal with the russian threat? well, i think — i am not sure it is complete negligence to be honest. i have some sympathy both for intelligence agencies and for the government's foreign policy, because it is true that there is very little human intelligence capacity in britain in russia intelligence gathering and that indeed is a problem, that all the resources
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were directed to the middle east. i think when it comes to cyber, i think the capabilities, britain's capabilities at gchq, are actually quite solid and formidable, and we've seen some quite impressive action in the aftermath of this attempted assassination and the use of the nerve agent how the intelligence services managed to then attribute blame. you remember there was the russian attempt to hack into the hague and the laboratories of the chemical inspection agencies. and that was quite a good, i thought, counterintelligence operation in attribution of blame and exposure of russian military intelligence agents in the uk, the expulsion of russian diplomats and spooks.
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so i think there is thaton the intelligence side. on the foreign—policy side, i think there is a recognition, finally, it couldn't come early enough, there is a problem in russian own set—up, a domestic problem. and the focus on human rights, and the focus on trying to split and separate the kremlin and what it is doing and russian society, which is i think partly is what the magnitsky list is aiming to do, dominic raab‘s policy. and i think it is all quite... there isn't a magic wand. russian attentions have to change, but i think britain is quite good at thinking ahead and thinking long—term. beyond putin and the next three or five years, thinking how we can have better relationships with russia in 30 years' time.
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and quickly, lyse, if you can, to what extent is it fair to single russia out in this way? isn't itjust doing influence operations like anyone else, or is it in a special category? well, for many years now we've been saying, and certainly it was said in the countries where i spend most of my time reporting, from syria, other countries in the middle east, that president putin had a weekend where he played it brilliantly. all this talk about hybrid warfare, political warfare, cyber warfare, conventional military. but when it comes to london, london has been an el dorado or an oasis for people in many countries for a very long time, with people coming here either with hard—earned cash or ill gotten gains, either to flee their countries, persecution in their countries, or to flee justice in their countries. over the years there have been
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investigations into nigerian billionaires' money, pakistani billionaires', chinese, hong kong. estate agents in the past week are being asked who is buying property in london? and they say actually the biggest buyers are from mainland china and from hong kong, coming here perhaps for different reasons. but russia is not the only. but i guess the question is, why are they coming here? is it a for safe place for the money, a safe place for themselves, or is there something more sinister? and given the recent history of russia, with the poisoning and so on, britain, the united states, i think that is why people ask perhaps more questions, they have to, about russia's engagement. before we leave this topic, i want to ask you about that us dimension. because of course the us president is still insisting that the mueller investigation into russian interference was a politically
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motivated witch hunt. how problematic does it make it for the west as an identity, in terms of the liberal democracies and their efforts to have that kind of set of rules in their operations? how hard does it make it when the big power is not on board? well, yes, indeed, it has been a very strange world in which the us, which is the main target in a way of the main sort of russian rival, has pursued this sort of schizophrenic, two—track police. donald trump seems to be arm—in—arm with vladimir putin, there is the mueller investigation, and the institutions and the report is obviously much more detailed than anything we have seen in london. and it is not politically motivated in the sense that trump
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would like us to believe that this was all about whether russia swung elections or not. and we can never prove how effective russian investigations are, but the question was whether donald trump actually colluded or did anything illegal in working together with russia, and that is a different question. what lyse raised is a very, very good question to london. what kind of russians are coming here, and why? and my sense is that a lot of russian businessmen who are investing in the uk are doing so because they are looking for property rights in the legal system, for protection, in a way, and access to the global market. america is a rich enough country to manage on its own, and basically shut out any russian investment. we can't do that. you know, london needs to stay open to global investment.
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but that global investment can only be mitigated, and needs to be mitigated, by very, very strict rules and criteria on what you can and can't do there, what kind of money you bring, can you explain the origins of this money? and all this needs to be followed through much more thoroughly. i'm going to leave that topic again because we've got to move on. and at this point i need to say we can't get thomas's line to work, so we wish you were here but we're going to manage without you and plough on. when borisjohnson arrived in downing street a year ago, he intended to be the prime minister who got brexit done. he didn't want to go down in history as the leader who presided over a pandemic or the one who lost the union. but the uk has one of the highest coronavirus death rates in the world now, and opinion polls in scotland suggests a clear majority for independence.
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lyse, you first on this. borisjohnson went to scotland last week. how did that go? well, especially in the polarised — arkady is smiling. in the very polarised environment we live in and a fractured media environment the answer will depend on where you stand in those quite gruelling cracks, if you like. but the message from boris johnson was that this was, to use his phrase, to show the sheer might of the union and how they would survive this coronavirus pandemic. and he chose the moment marking his one year in power and he went to the orkney islands, which of course is north of scotland. as beautiful as they are, it's not the beating heart of scotland. and mthe fact that nicola sturgeon didn't meet him to stand shoulder—to—shoulder to say yes,
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the great, sheer might of the union, said a lot. and so did the opinion polls, which were, many would say, the backdrop to this, showing steadily increasing... polls can be fickle, and it's a long time to the election in scotland next year. but they've nudged above 50% of support for independence in scotland, six years after the referendum, and nicola sturgeon showing very high opinion polls, after what has been regarded as a very steady, competent, reassuring public health message during the coronavirus. so why did boris johnson, why did the prime minister, go to scotland ? was it because he's worried about that sheer might of the union? he of course said, this is the thing about the pandemic, it is true, as he emphasised, that it is westminster which was responsible for the economic policy, so the furlough scheme which he said saved 900,000 jobs in scotland. but the public messaging was mainly the responsibility
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of the devolved governments, and they were very different, as we know, during this crisis and still are different. lyse has set out some of the problems. what do you think his strategy will be to nicola sturgeon‘s calls for a second referendum? do you think he willjust carry on saying no? do you think he'll try to make a persuasive argument to scots? or will he try to turn on the johnson charm? arkady has frozen. do you think it's my multiple choice question? arkady, can you hear me? did you hear all that? i heard a little bit of it, not all of it. can you hear me? i was basically saying is he going to carry on saying no?
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is he going to make a persuasive argument or try to charm the scots? well, i defer to lyse. what i saw this morning i thought was quite interesting. the polling in the times published, and it was tweeted by ruth davidson, talking about independence as number seven on the list of priorities in scotland today. that people are much more worried about jobs, about covid, about the health system. i wonder whether, you know, nicola sturgeon might be thinking this is the moment. it's true she's had, in a way, a better lockdown, better coronavirus, better pandemic, than borisjohnson. but i'm not sure — and again this is my guess, and i defer to those who know scotland much better — but i somehow wonder whether putting this back on the agenda now would be actually helpful.
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again, you know, in financial terms, scotland does need money from the central government. you know, the covid moment will pass, hopefully, in the next few months. i think it will hang on for boris johnson, but i don't think this will be the basis on which... simply because the lockdown measures were better coordinated, organised, the messaging was better in scotland, i somehow doubt that will become the trigger for a new movement towards a referendum. and we've really only gotjust got a few seconds left on the programme. i want to get a couple of sentences from each of you on your assessment of boris johnson's first year in power. arkady, sum it up. well, i think he's actually coped better in some ways than i thought. i think, as you say, he arrived to play a certain role.
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i think history has thrown things at him. and i think in the beginning, at least, he was showing some leadership, notwithstanding all the... arkady, you've had your sentence. like any politician, he's had his ups and downs. this is a moment when questions are being asked, and he needs to give answers. thank you both so much and that is it. we are back at the same place, same time, next week. goodbye.
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hello. such a wet and windy start to the week, and it is looking blustery for tuesday, but not as wet. there will be showers around, and longer spells of rain. the far north—east of scotland, more especially to the northern isles, where he has some winds will be gusting 50, 55 mph. gusty winds elsewhere with a few showers in scotland, north—west england, north wales. a few to the midlands and the odd one elsewhere for england, south wales and northern ireland, but many places he will stay dry, and if you do catch a shower it moves through quite quickly on the wind, and it will be another cool day for the time of year. the wind eases a touch as we go into tuesday night and into wednesday morning stop it stays wet for some of us in the far north of scotland and the northern isles, and temperatures a little bit lower as wednesday begins. that's a day that brings an area of high pressure, so day that brings an area of high pressure, so things that link down a bit, but still quite blustery and northern ireland and the northern isles, with showers. the odd shower can't be ruled out elsewhere but many places will be dry on wednesday. the cloud increases the west, there may be a bit of patchy rain into northern wales, and northern ireland to
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start the day.
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this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. my name is mike embley. as the number of confirmed covid—i9 cases passes 16 million, the world health organization calls it the most severe emergency they have ever faced. and the pandemic continues to accelerate. in the past six weeks, the total number of cases has roughly doubled. spain's prime minister strongly criticises the uk's decision to impose a quarantine on everyone arriving from his country. health workers in brazil, what of the worst affected countries, accused the government of crimes against humanity, calling for an international investigation. remembering a civil rights icon. don lewis's funeral

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