my guests, on socially distanced screens, political analyst eunice goes and henry chu of the los angeles times. and here in the studio, bbc newsnight‘s diplomatic editor mark urban. welcome to you all. virus spikes, flight cancellations and a new recession low for the eurozone — it's more grim news for a continent whose leisure and tourism industries hoped to salvage a small something from august's holiday high season after a ruinous first half to the year. that, i think, takes us to you, eunice, what is your assessment of the worries in many european countries that are bound for a second wave? you're talking about a second wave when in reality we're perhaps witnessing the continuation of the first wave and not really a second wave. in southern europe, governments are extremely worried.

i think spain and france are very concerned with the recent rise in cases, and it's been quite a dramatic rise in cases. at the same time, where they are trying to manage the tourism industry, which plays a very big role in their economies — in the case of spain, it's over 10% of spanish gdp, which is now suffering tremendously because britain, france, many other european countries, are imposing bans, so not establishing air bridges with spain. that means a lot of economic worries. it is very worrying and i think the european governments, it is very challenging, because they have to manage with one hand covid—19 and a threat to public health, and it's a massive threat to public health, but also the impact on the economy. and we've already seen that so far, covid—19 has had a catastrophic impact on all world economies, the eurozone in particular.

the european union will suffer a much bigger contraction than it was initially forecast. and we have to manage those risks, because we can be protecting public health from covid—19, but the public health systems will not be able to respond to the challenges if countries are suffering really serious economic depressions. turning back to this question of summer vacations spreading a virus, it looks like that is a problem in the us as well? there definitely has been another surge in coronavirus infections in the us, and we have seen the death toll rising as well. it has been fuelled by a lot of the southern states in what we call the sunbelt, california, texas, arizona, florida. though i would say it is not from summer vacations yet, really.

in many of these states, it was because of aggressive reopenings by republican governors allying themselves with president trump's call to liberate their states, and now they are bearing the fruit of that, unfortunately, with greater rise of coronavirus caseloads in many of these states and they are having to roll back some of the lockdown easing that they had already instituted about maybe a couple of months ago. so we're seeing that they are reaping the whirlwind in many ways. particularly florida, where on thursday, i think you had a death toll of ten people every hour. there is some good news, which is the nationwide caseload seems to be levelling off. there is about 60,000 new caseloads per day, which in the us is not bad, given the population of over 350 million people. what that means is that it's masking where the coronavirus caseload is still rising in some states.

it has now hopscotched from those southern, sunbelt states, to the midwest. so we have the wave of infections that really hit the east coast hard, particularly new york, that is what we saw first. then it started spreading and surging amongst the southern states and it has now moved to the midwest. so there is no room for complacency and many states are thinking about re—instituting lockdowns and many southern states, such as alabama, have reissued mask wearing orders, which they thought they would be able to avoid up to now. and coming to the uk, we learned this past week that what many had been saying for a while, that england had the highest number of excess deaths between february and june in europe. obviously, borisjohnson has taken a firm and fast approach at the moment in terms of slowing down the easing of lockdown,

but is he carrying the country with him? i think what we've learned in the last 24 with these changes that borisjohnson made, is there does not seem to be any political penalty to caution in this. i think he's observed what happens in the early phases, when a lot of people believe he was too slow to lock the country down, and he's also seen how our devolved governments in the uk, in scotland, northern ireland and wales, by taking a more cautious approach, have reaped political benefit. the fascinating thing yesterday is, when he announced he was pumping on the brake pedal, as he put it, to slow down the easing of certain restrictions, and parts of northwest england are now under tighter social—distancing rules again, it was interesting that essentially, the leader of the opposition kier starmer almost immediately came out and said, we support this. it just didn't catch fire in the sense of any real political debate.

so i think he's discovered through hard—won experience that taking a cautious line has both public and political support. and just before we move back to europe on this, about the demographic in terms of the young, because it's a lot of focus now on young people in spain — the hashtag, don't chuck it all away — the suggestion that young people are increasingly spreading the virus with summer parties and so on, can we tell whether that is just a temporary problem which will go away or a permanent covid fatigue? your perspective on this in some degree depends on which generation you're from. some epidemiologists have been saying, naturally, when restrictions started to be eased, the younger working population, say people in their 20s or late teens, were bound to be the one to introduce themselves back into society most rapidly. a lot of older people,

in the shielding category, weren't going to do that. but i think there is also a fairly fierce intergenerational thing building up here. i was talking through with my son some of the restrictions and our concerns about the fact that we suspect he's not keeping to all the restrictions, and he just let rip with, this is all part of the older generation suppressing us, he said to me. i think that is quite a big factor, in many societies, that young people, almost as an assertion of their own rights and joie de vivre, whatever you want to call it, their desire to be in life and with friends and to associate, want to challenge this as an assertion of generational identity. do you see that in europe? i do see that in europe and i sympathise with mark, my teenage daughter has also suffered tremendously from the lack of socialisation, because of lockdown. we need to sympathise and understand that the lives that young people

are experiencing at the moment are a far cry from what young people expected to live in their past. in europe, i think we see the rising spike, in france, in spain, to a certain extent in portugal, is associated with movements of young people. the opening of nightclubs, the socialisation in beaches, parties and so on, it will mean that there's a much higher transmission rate. and the big worry is, this will continue once schools will open and some universities will open. so it is quite a bit concerning. do you have a sense of where this fits into the global picture? because if this joie de vivre language applies, presumably,

to young people in the developed world, in the developing world, the picture is extremely critical for young people economically, as well as their parents and grandparents, in terms of their life chances. just in terms of the global picture, we've also heard in the last few hours that mexico is moving into third place in the overall deaths from the virus — give us the global picture in a nutshell. the global picture is extremely grim. we are already in the middle of the greatest economic shock of the last 100 years. europe is facing a terrible economic crisis, unemployment is at the moment almost double what it was in january. and the situation will get worse once the state programmes to support employment will close at some stage

later in this year. so the economic consequences are going to be very dire and are going to be extremely dire for the younger generations, especially those who are graduating from university at the moment, or leaving school at the moment, because there is nojobs. and what we know from other periods of economic recession, if you are out of the economic ladder at one critical stage in your life, it is very difficult to get back in. so this is a generation that is really in danger of being scarred for a very long time, for pretty much all their working careers. so i think young people are feeling, what are our chances? what kind of life, what kind of world are we going to wake up to once all of this is over? europe is trying to respond to this. the european union, a couple of weeks ago, agreed a big rescue plan to help the most struggling economies, those who have been most adversely

affected by covid—i9, but also those whose economies are suffering by the lockdowns, those who rely a lot on travel industries. but will this be enough? we do not know. we have been talking a lot about a transformational change to all of our economies. we've been seeing the state changing its role in the economy in a way that hasn't been seen in over a0 years. but will the changes that have been introduced be long lasting, will they result in sustainable, greener and more productive economies? we do not know. those questions will sustain dateline london for years to come. henry, yourfinal thoughts on this topic? this is the challenge for governments in terms of tailoring its messaging. the coronavirus hit different groups of people in different ways, so they need to be targeted with messages that resonate.

for young people, young men in particular who are reluctant to wear masks, they need to hear particular messages that are directed at them. thank you for that very apposite point. ever since 1845, american presidential elections have taken place on the tuesday after the first monday in november. that puts the 2020 vote on the 3rd of november. president trump suggests a delay due to the risk of fraud via postal ballots. but key republicans have already dismissed the idea and a combination of virus, recession and civil unrest are making it hard for president trump to write the news headlines. henry, are you surprised by how fast key republicans quashed this idea? i am always surprised when any republicans go against what trump says because many of them are afraid of alienating his fervent base and many of them are themselves up for election.

i think that is part of the clue as to why some of them came out so quickly against him, because they're up for re—election and have amassed war chests that they are now going through in terms of trying to campaign, they are adverse to any further delay in the polls, and in a sense, by calling into question the american election date, which is set constitutionally, as you mentioned, that also calls into question the capability of america to have a functioning democracy. it didn't surprise me as much as perhaps it might have on other issues for republicans to pile on. but i think we need to be clear eyed about just what was motivating trump in terms of coming out with this tweet. i think he knows full well that he is, himself, as president, unable to effect such a change to the election date. that power rests solely with congress, which right now, in the lower chamber, is controlled by democrats, so it's a complete nonstarter

when it comes to an actual process of trying to change the date. however, he is also a master of political theatre and as we know now, his tweet came outjust in few minutes before the news emerged that the american economy in the second quarter had contracted by one third, which is the greatest contraction in the history of the measurement of the american economy. and also, as you mentioned in the lead up, his message was mostly about trying to cast doubt on the validity of the mail—in votes that we will see in much greater numbers in november. this was, i think, part of his plan to delegitimise the outcome, if it should go against him, and all the polls are showing it will. it's still early days, but yes. 20 years ago, those of us who are old enough to remember, will remember hanging chads in florida and the supreme court having to decide the outcome of that

presidential election. judging from what henryjust said, do you think there is a possibility that we are heading towards a supreme court decision again if an attempt to delegitimise the vote is in prospect? everything i read from constitutional experts in washington, dc, and what henry said underlines that, really, is it's quite hard for president trump to get to the area of doubt on this, because the constitution is so clear about his lack of power to set the election. i think it's a very close election, of course, there are various scenarios in which he may attempt to cast doubt on the results. i see he has been suggesting that all the votes be counted and tallied on a single day, various ideas are now flying about. it could come to a legal intervention, but let's face it, at the moment, the polls would suggest it is a fairly hefty defeat that he's heading towards, and then that leads to these interpretations about why is he doing what he's doing. is it purely the interest

of the moment, as henry said, because of a terrible focus about the economy? is he, as some people are saying, just trying to put a brave face on the fact that he's probably going to lose and trying to come up with an explaination before the fact, or is it something darker, is he trying to provoke people, conspiracies on the right, into disorder, which might provide a more intense disruption of voting? eunice, can you talk a bit about the front runner? joe biden is still fairly quiet, but his choice of running mate is going to make a splash — what factors will he be weighing up? well, the advisers ofjoe biden are very concerned that having someone who will be a loyal vice president. there is over ten potential candidates, but i think there are three main candidates. there is kamala harris,

susan rice and elizabeth warren, i think they are the three leading contenders. in the debates about what do they bring to the table, what are the important things forjoe biden? is its experience in foreign policy, the ability to come up with actions on russia and china, the ability to also help manage the pandemic? is it loyalty, is it widening the electoral base ofjoe biden, because he's doing very well with floating voters, the typical centrist, democratic voter, and perhaps less well with younger and female voters, also african—american voters. so i think he's going to ponder around these kinds of issues. and i also think he is very worried with having somebody with he gets along well. he had a very good working experience with president obama when he was his vice president, and i think he would like to see replicated the same type of experience.

one interesting thing is, there's been in the last days, quite a big campaign amongst his donors against kamala harris on the grounds that she's not sufficiently loyal, which is a bit of a strange accusation made to a politician when they were all of them competing to be the democratic candidate to be the president, to run for the presidency. so we'll see. i think we'll know in the next few days, but i think he is going to value above all experience in foreign policy and the ability to widen his electoral base and, of course, someone with whom he gets along well. henry, presumably president trump watching closely, because there is one thing to say sleepyjoe and painting joe biden as a do—nothing grandpa, but it's hard at the same time to present him as extremist. but if the choice of running mate is a progressive,

that becomes easier? that's right. right now, everyone's hanging on this choice, which i think will probably be a woman of colour, because at the moment we're living through, certainly in the us, with the black lives matter movement, but also biden's own commitment to civil rights and the advancements of black americans. but it's still three months to go, anything can happen between now and then. biden has been relatively silent, broadcasting from his basement in delaware because of the coronavirus crisis. we can't forget he has also been prone to gaffes in the past, with the african—american men whom he accused of being not black enough if they didn't support him. anything can happen out of biden's mouth and we need to be prepared for that. trump could also pull off what we call an october surprise, even a military intervention somewhere. the conflict with china, the confrontation with china, is certainly ramping up.

so i wouldn't discount anything happening between now and november. and a wild card really is the coronavirus. if a vaccine were to be found effective between now and then, that could also just throw the race into completely new territory with president trump claiming victory on that. we hear you, we'll be watching closely. britain's spies have a new c — that is, a new chief of the secret intelligence service mi6. the role made famous in the james bond series goes to richard moore — libyan—born, turkish—speaking, with interests including porcelain and cricket. we don't know whether he prefers his martini shaken or stirred, but we do know we live in dangerous times. mark, what does it take to run an intelligence service? i think they've got the perfect candidate, given the workings of the whitehall machine at this particular moment. he had a career as an mi6 officer

running agents, effectively. is that normal, for someone to become an intelligence officer and then become an ambassador? it's unusual, actually, but i have to say, when you talk to people in the service, they now say that a period outside, most recently as political director of the foreign office, is very much a desired characteristic of someone who's got to run that service. they want people to be known around whitehall and in that position, he clearly was, in downing street and all the other key customers, as they see it, for secret intelligence, they want somebody who flits easily, who is not too ingrained in the culture of secrecy and tradecraft and will step blinking onto the stage of being a chief of the service, perhaps ill—equipped to take on all the demands. in terms of his experience and portfolio, there's no doubt, when we look at what's happened in the last couple of months in the uk, that reshaping of intelligence around the chinese target is going to be critical.

russia, of course, we heard last week about the russia reports in the sense that perhaps the intelligence services had been complacent, that was the accusation from the intelligence and security committee at parliament. and lastly, i think he's bound to bring a focus on the mediterranean region. he is steeped in turkey as a culture, he speaks turkish extremely well, he tweets in turkish as well as english, and he was ambassador there. he will be looking to see how far president erdogan's recent assertiveness might threaten the peace of the region. henry, i want to take up the china point with you, making china the target is all very well, but it is very difficult to get any information out of xijinping's china, or is it easierfor some people? certainly china has its own allies. in terms of pakistan or north korea, we're talking about states with whom china has a very close relationship, there is intelligence sharing going on all the time between those three.

there was a period directly after the 9/11 attacks where the us and china seemed to be in a better footing when it came to intelligence sharing, the overall relationship was better, and that is what we have to remember, that intelligence cooperation is always going to be dictated by the overall state of diplomatic relations between states. right now, as we see the us become increasingly confrontational with china and vice versa, also britain is becoming more and more assertive against china. the idea that they would actually be sharing intelligence, ithink, is beginning to recede further and further. every state will share the intelligence that suits them, that will further their aims, china is no different. when it comes to matters of islamic terrorism, which they tried to pin on the uighers in xinjiang,

who are turkish—speaking people, so people who the new m16 director might have more of an insight, that is a place where they might find common ground. but i think, increasingly between the west and china, it is becoming a more and more fraught relationship. eunice, give us a european's take on this — it is one thing to gather intelligence on societies like china or russia, but obviously, for chinese and russian agents inside open societies, whether the uk, europe or north america, these are much more porous and open places to gather information, surely? europe has hardened its stance on china and russia just this week, the us issued sanctions against russia and china and north korea on cybercrime charges and other activities. and we've also seen the hardening of stances towards china since at least last year. the european commission, in its strategic review, defined china as a strategic rival. so there is a recognition that china

is a very important economic partner for europe but there is a great deal of awareness of the security challenges that it poses. and many european countries, france in particular, are getting increasingly impatient and angry with chinese interference and chinese activities in terms of cyber crime, data collection and so on. so we see a change of attitude. now, the way that europe will deal with china will not be the confrontational manner of the united states, because i think all the economic stakes that are involved. but we've seen that hardening of positions. eunice, henry, mark, we have to leave it there, it has been a fascinating half hour, thanks to you for watching. that's it for dateline london for this week, we're back next week at the same time. goodbye.

hello, it will be pleasant enough today when the sun is on your back, feeling warm enough, when the sun isn't at the cloud are there and the showers come your way. it is going to feel a little of the cool side. there will be a scattering of showers this afternoon, not dissimilar to yesterday but it has been a cloudy start across scotland and northern england, more sunshine in the afternoon. when we do see the showers they could be on the heavy and thundery side but in between them some longer spells of sunshine compared with the morning, cool across western areas. may be 17 or 18 towards the east. more showers across northern ireland and some heavy ones are tracking eastwards across england, but across the

western half of england, wales, compared to the morning view at showers whereas to the east we will see more. we will miss them at times even here, one or two showers close enough to sell best and at times. overall though largely dry picture but if any showers hit the circuit it could add interest. overnight showers and eastern areas will fade but one or two will continue in the west. with clear skies across many areas it does mean with slightly cooler air masses in place, interpreters will drop further tonight, away from the city centre widely into single figures as a start monday. a fresh start to monday, almost between weather systems, one across scandinavia, one which might bring morning rain to the channel islands, clearing away towards the bay of biscay, when approaching from the west. it means the dry and bright weather first thing. more cloud will build up through the afternoon. the odd heavy one but more of you will spend the day dry tomorrow, even if it is not

especially warm. it will feel pleasa nt especially warm. it will feel pleasant enough again when the sun is out. windy weather on the way for all as we go into tuesday and wednesday, these weather fronts sitting across scotland and northern ireland will produce large amounts of rainfall especially for the western highlands. rain at times for northern ireland, some in northern england, west wales on tuesday, the further south and east you are, still windy but a warmer winter. it is going to get even warmer still as we go towards the end of the week. after a call start the week, summer heat could return off the new continent, especially across and good. we will keep you updated throughout the week.

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