this is bbc news with the latest headlines. after days of controversy about grading, students across england, wales and northern ireland are getting their a—level and vocational results. it means my uni place is secure at northumbria. very happy, yeah. we will see what the royal navy says first, whether or not it is good enough, but hopefully yeah. if you've just got or are about to get your results we'd love to hear from you. are you happy or not with your grades? are you going to appeal based on your mocks results or do you think you might need to take the exams in the autumn? do get in touch at annita—mcveigh on twitter or use #bbcyourquestions.

in other news — investigators are working to identify what caused a train derailment in aberdeenshire in which three people died. coronavirus cases surge gci’oss much of europe, with germany, france and spain all registering a record number of infections. a major study suggests that almost 3.5 million people in england may have already had covid—19 — far more than the 270,000 confirmed cases. warnings of severe thunderstorms are in place across much of the uk — after record—setting high temperatures. good morning. a—level and vocational

results in england, wales and northern ireland are being released this morning, amid continuing controversy about how they are being calculated. almost 300,000 teenagers will get their a—level results. grades have been estimated then standardised, after the coronavirus outbreak forced the cancellation of exams. a 2% rise in a* and a grades this year at a—level has been announced by the exam watchdog. that's close to record levels. about 40% of results will be different, mostly lower, than predicted grades submitted by teachers because of the moderation process. but 90% of pupils will either be awarded the grade the school gave them today, or within one grade of it, according to the education secretary. gavin williamson has said that the "overwhelming majority" of students would know by the end of today if they'd be going to university.

we'll get reaction from our correspondents at schools, colleges and sixth forms in northern ireland, wales and england. but our first report is from our education correspondent dan johnson. after 12 years at school, it all comes down to this, but the stress of results today is multiplied by the added complications of coronavirus. with no exams, teachers have estimated grades, which have been standardised across the country. the who is up and who is down. there's deep anxiety about these unusual results. half of me saying, "yeah, brilliant, i'm confident, and i'm really looking forward to getting the results," but at the same time, because of, obviously, what has happened in scotland, there is a little bit of uncertainty about am i going to get my predicted grade? quite apprehensive but i know that i have done a good job with my preparations, but all of my subjects are exam—based subjects. i think it is all really uncertain, to be honest, like, i'm feeling

happy that i've done well in my marks and assessments. i've done the best i could do, but i was really set on doing the exams. standardised marks in scotland were erased after protests about unfairly downgraded results hitting the poorest pupils. nervous ministers have made late changes in the rest of the uk. in wales, students have been promised at least the grade they scored in first—year exams. in northern ireland, schools will be able to appeal if marks are lower than mock exam results. that's also been added in england, alongside the option to sit an exam in autumn. but btec courses haven't got the same safety net. the education secretary has apologised even before grades are revealed. i apologise to every single child right across the country for the disruption they have had to suffer and the fact that, in a situation where we had to close schools to pupils, other than those of critical workers and the most vulnerable.

i would never have expected to be in a situation where we wouldn't have an exam period. there are signs of significant downgrades and warnings of further unfairness but the regulator in england says the system will be fair to most and overall grades may still be slightly higher. we want a robust, fair system whereby mock evidence can be brought to bear. we will be doing that urgently over the next couple of days. in terms of a student getting their results, we very much hope that they will do as in any other year, and they will move on and be able to take those decisions. and here is where some futures will be decided. clearing is another chance to get a university place. the lines will be busy and the word is, don't panic, there are more places this year because there are fewer international students. will the results be fair? will they stop anyone taking their next step? what to do? where to go? it is all up in the air and there is a real possibility, after all those years of formal

education, these grades may still not be the final assessment. dan johnson, bbc news. lots of you getting in touch. andrea has sent me some details. andrew says his daughter has worked extremely hard but in one of her subjects she got an e in her mark but a subjects she got an e in her mark buta d subjects she got an e in her mark but a d today so i am guessing that is where they will be hoping the school appeals on her behalf. 0livia says i am pleased with my results but i have been marked down in graphic design and i do not have a mop grade, what do i do? meghan says opened my results and i were go and i mostly am happy. either way i made it but my friend who had straight as

has been given bs. it is interesting to get a feel for what is happening with people around the uk so keep your thoughts coming in. welsh pupils are getting their a—level results. 0ur correspondent tomos morgan is in bridgend. really interested to hear about the feeling is from students about whether the results they have got today are an accurate and fair reflection of the work they have done. yes, over the last 24 hours the welsh education minister said that no child in wales but was having a—level results would to get a grade lower than what they got in the es grade last year. i am at one of the schools that has opened its doors for people to come and get

their results. i have some of the pupils alongside me. you have had your results. tell us what you achieved and how that compares to what you had in the as. three a* and two as. you have done very well. you have got your place. at warwick. tell us what it has been like for you. it has been nerve-racking but i am sure it is every year. when you saw what was happening across the other nations...? saw what was happening across the other nations. . . ? it was a bit worrying. i wasn't sure how things we re worrying. i wasn't sure how things were going to play out but the news from the education secretary was comforting. tell us what you got. a*,

comforting. tell us what you got. a*. e. comforting. tell us what you got. a*, e, b, c, and i have one up on last year. you have got your place? in swansea. has it been more stress after seeing what happened? in swansea. has it been more stress after seeing what happened ?|j in swansea. has it been more stress after seeing what happened? i was stressed but it didn't really matter. i am a very stressed person. but most definitely added to the stress. especially seeing the disadvantage so many students were put under in scotland and their results being upgraded. i was wondering if we would get upgraded oi’ wondering if we would get upgraded or downgraded. the news last night was really reassuring. you are the head teacher here. your students have done very well. the first student ever to have got a place in 0xford. the one concern for many teachers in wales and across the uk is is there a parity for the children when they get their place going for university because the

nations are doing something slightly different? i hope everything will work out well. it is important to note that the learners get to go to the place they chose as their first choice and they have shown they can do that. a lot of these have been working on additional qualifications over the summer and participating in summer over the summer and participating in summer school in order to continue with their learning so when they arrive at university is not a gap in their knowledge. they have still worked hard for it and i know they can compete with any student from the home nations and further afield. good luck to you next year. the situation in wales, no child in wales, no pupil, should i say, will be getting a grade lower than what they got last year in the as level. btec results are also out this morning — our correspondent nina warhurst is at a further education college in sunderland. how is the situation different for

stu d e nts how is the situation different for students getting vocational results? good morning. it is different because you probably know that people who study vocational courses like btec are regularly assessed throughout the two years they are studying and so their final grades area studying and so their final grades are a little bit easier to protect and they will be more young people receiving vocational qualifications this summer than a—levels. we are prolonging the torture for me are who is looking to get a place at durham. what have you been studying? children's play and learning. you need distinction, distinction, merit to get into durham. let's open it. bless you for hanging on this long. it would be stuck, wouldn't it? ! we

are looking for a d, l m. distinction, distinction, distinction. even better. iwould like to high five you but we are not allowed. how has it been for you when you have not been able to have for example as much contact with children? really hard. we still had contact with the teachers but it is a lot different. when you look ahead to going to durham it is a brilliant place to be moving to but do you worry you will not have the full university experience because of social distancing? i am not sure. i was more bothered about getting it for now. congratulations. i know you have worked really hard. lucy, who have worked really hard. lucy, who have opened your results and they went well. i am hoping to get a job asa went well. i am hoping to get a job as a teaching assistant in a primary school. when you think about the jobs that are out there, in primary

school things are going to be different. it will be different but lam different. it will be different but i am still hoping i will be able to get one. i am sure you well. let us look at your results because you are hoping for a place with the raf. look at your results because you are hoping for a place with the rafi have got merit, merit, so that is more than i need to get in. ijust need to set a test and go from there. fantastic. congratulations. your place but the raf was already decided? yes, it has been a decision of nine to be in the raf since i was younger. originally it was to be a pilot but as i grew older i grow towards engineering so with me having best i am closer than i have ever being to getting my dream, to be in the royal air force. i am one step closer and i am over the moon but i have got the grades i need.

proper dream come true. well done. these guys are training in areas in the public sector where there will consistently be work but rob takes on apprentices and has done for many yea rs on apprentices and has done for many years but you are concerned about the impact of the recession on the jobs market and how much value will be placed on apprenticeships and workplace learning. be placed on apprenticeships and workplace learninglj be placed on apprenticeships and workplace learning. i think some of the work that apprentices and other students have done during the lockdown has been testament to how good you can be, the potential they have got, so that is where we need to look and carry that through and bring these people through into the industries. i should explain locally giving dashboards for nissan so you are in manufacturing, you are directly affected or will be directly affected or will be directly affected or will be directly affected by the recession begins to bite. i hope not. we have to keep pushing on with showing how good we are in the north—east in

manufacturing, automation. we build a card every minute for nissan, that is how good we are, even in social distancing times. hopefully that shows people around the world that come to the north—east and spend some money and to take us seriously i suppose. absolutely. rob was telling the earlier they will continue to invest in apprentices and they hope the government does the same. the government acknowledges that for a long time practical learning has been undervalued and underfunded and it is time for that to change. that's a lot of excitement about some very well—deserved results but also anxiety about the kind ofjob market they are going to face. she was so brave to open her results on air.|j know. i was holding my breath. on the sly. congratulations to all the students. 0ur correspondent emma vardy explained the system

in northern ireland, from a school in east belfast. well, there's around 25,000 students here in northern ireland receiving results today, and pretty similar to the system in england, here in northern ireland it has been based on predicted grades from teachers which have then been moderated by the northern ireland exam board, and similar to elsewhere there has been widespread concern from school some of those grades might have been unfairly lowered throughout the moderation process and the northern ireland exam board has already admitted yes there may be some anomalies and it is going to take a few weeks for the appeals process to kick in for some of those results to shake down once the individual schools have put forward their appeals, but here at ashfield boys school in east belfast they tell me they feel broadly speaking the results they receive back through the moderation process compared to the predicted grades were pretty much spot on so they feel they have had a sort

of fair set of results, a little bit up here from last year, so one of the unanswered questions here in northern ireland is why some schools feel they have fared better through the system than others. something else, a particularfeature of northern ireland, two of the big universities, queens and ulster, took the decision to open up dozens of places early and unconditionally to local students in part because they were worried about the drop in revenue from decreasing numbers of foreign students coming in this year and wanted to fill their places, so for some students in northern ireland that gives them the assurance they are going on to a university place, but like other areas here today there will be other stu d e nts areas here today there will be other students having to face that appeals process and that is going to take a few weeks to shake down to find out what the picture is for them. a sense of how people are dealing

with this unprecedented results situation. leslie says almost all of my friends and i have got grades lower than we would have got if we sat the exams. we are massively disappointed after such a long and stressful wet. mallory says my grandson got a b last year and this year he was awarded a d mac. it doesn't make any sense. thankfully he has got onto the course he wanted. someone says i am feeling lucky because my university accepted me despite my grades being nowhere near where they should be. edward says i haven't had my results yet as iam waiting says i haven't had my results yet as i am waiting for them to be sent to me via email but i have had the text from my chosen university and ucas online confirming that i have got this place. i am just waiting for my actual results. lots of attention turning to ucas. for some a—level students, today's

results may mean they need the help of the university clearing system. 0ur correspondentjohn maguire is at a hub in bristol. i know some ucas staff are working from home of course but somewhere in the office behind you and they are going to be very busy i imagine. yes, already very busy. we are at the university of bristol, each university has its own clearing centre as well as the central one you described which deals with all the universities across the uk. this time last year they received around 9000 calls. phones have been live since the results came injust 9000 calls. phones have been live since the results came in just after etienne this morning and the phones have been ringing frequently. i want to see if i can interact. marion is one of the call handlers. she is about to be a third—year medical

student here at the university. give us an idea of the type of things people are asking about. as you can imagine it is quite an anxious time for a lot of applicants. we are getting a lot of questions the appeals process which is obviously through school and quite a few calls about clearing on the courses we have so it has been going great. are you able to reassure them? definitely. it is a nerve—racking time. it is more to tell people not to panic and take a step back and have a look at your options and a bit of reassurance goes a long way during these times. we will let you get back to providing that vital reassurance. what is different from the clearing perspective or the university perspective? the single biggest issue is uncertainty and anxiety which we are seeing coming through in the calls. a number of them are students anxious about the

way their results which may not be what they were hoping, how that will affect their ability to get a place. colleagues are doing their best to reassure students but there is no question that is underlying anxiety. no one knows what is going to happen in the next weeks or months, perhaps there might be less overseas students, how is that going to affect the balance we talked about? we certainly hope that we can still attract overseas students who make a huge contribution to the special place at the campus. if they are unable to do so, unable to come over because of logistical problems with travel, we are making it possible for them to start online and then transition onto the campus when possible, but i think many universities will be taking additional home students to make up the gap. you have an extra 596 of uk stu d e nts the gap. you have an extra 596 of uk students that can come that she would not have been able to offer places to before. we have a buffer

about what is essential as we make sure the student and learning experience of those students does not suffer and we are adamant that is not going to happen but the indication is that international students want to come here and fingers crossed they will. good luck to all of you and your staff. look at the banner. keep calm and quiet. designed for exam time, but that message, keep calm, is a good one to ta ke message, keep calm, is a good one to take home today. absolutely. a-level stu d e nts take home today. absolutely. a-level students have been struggling to log on to the clearing website this morning after it crashed following technical issues. we are told the pupils have been on social media to complain about not being able to access the track section of the website leaving thousands unable to find out whether they got the grades needed to head to university. ucas has responded saying ucas track is

running as usual now, we are sorry it was running slowly, we are here to help if you need us. if you try to help if you need us. if you try to get onto it earlier and you couldn't please try again. we are going to continue our discussion in a moment, but one other piece of news. this is from the health service in grampian which says it is investigating a case of covid—i9 connected to a primary school in peterhead in aberdeenshire. it says its health protection teams are working hard to establish which close contacts may be or where they are and advising them to isolate. aberdeenshire council says the reason for closing the school was a public health decision. if we get any more detail we will bring that to you.

returning to exam results. joining me now is our political correspondent jonathan blake. confusion over a few things that gavin williamson was seeing. take us through what he has said about the situation. this is to do with the number of students which the education secretary gavin williamson has assured us this morning will get either the grade they were predicted by their teachers or are within one grade of that. he gave different figures in different interviews this morning so to be clear the department for education has said it is in fact 97% of a—level students in england will get the grade predicted by their teachers are a result within one grade of that. that is clearly the overwhelming majority but of course it still includes a significant number of stu d e nts includes a significant number of students who will see their grades reduced by one. the by one. and a small number will see their grades

resulting in a higher result than the ones they were aborted by their teachers. as the results are coming out this morning a lot of attention on the detail and in the flurry of activity we see this morning as stu d e nts activity we see this morning as students open their results and try to find out if they are getting to the university they want to go to our going on to do the course they wa nt to our going on to do the course they want to do, the government will also be watching the reaction to these results in terms of the national picture for england because as we know there has been so much scrutiny on the system being used and a lot of criticism of the system being used by not only the labour party but teaching unions and others as well. this morning gavin williamson disk defended the standardisation model seeing checks were needed to avoid what he described as rampant grade inflation and he said he would not consider doing what we saw in scotla nd not consider doing what we saw in scotland where the government had to apologise and scrappy

standardisation model and revert to grades predicted by teachers. mr williamson said that would be unfair to the students getting the results this year so he has defended the system being used but it is under a huge amount of pressure and scrutiny given the extraordinary circumstances this year where stu d e nts circumstances this year where students have not taken their exams at all and been given a grade based on the work they had done before that. geoff barton is the head of the headteachers‘ union, the association of school and college leaders. good to have you with us on this really important day for so many students. we are hearing that while a—level, a* and a grades have gone up a—level, a* and a grades have gone up 296, a—level, a* and a grades have gone up 2%, 40% of results are different, mostly lower tha n up 2%, 40% of results are different, mostly lower than those protected by teachers. what is your reaction to that and what sort of feedback have you been getting from head teachers?

i think today, while some people will be celebrating the fact that statistical models appear to be working, this is not about statistics, it is about individuals. it is great to have been able to talk about individuals and see their su ccesses . talk about individuals and see their successes. what my members are seeing is when you look at what that can mean for some of them, those 40% getting a great lower, but does have consequences, so for example a head teacher in the north—east contacted me seeing a young man with a disadvantaged background who will be first generation going to university all three of his a—levels are lower and he wanted to get to durham university and whether he will or not is in the balance. we want to ask questions about the statistics because it is looking a little bet as if you are taking a smaller subject, let's see further maths, compared to the big subject like maths, your centre assessed grades, your teacher grades, have held for

the smaller subjects as opposed to the smaller subjects as opposed to the larger ones and there is something in that because if you are ina something in that because if you are in a centre which is able to run smaller classes i wondered if the statistical model has not downgraded ina similarway statistical model has not downgraded in a similar way and what members are seeing is they feel this need and in some cases furious when they see the consequences for some people. this and furious because they live and breathe this their students, the go through the emotions. we have all been anxious and we have absolutely backed the government because we know that you need standardisation. you want to know that a grade e is the same given by another school. what we are seeing is we have to look at the consequences of this because a government which talks about social mobility, some young people who could have been the first one is going to university but have been punished by something going wrong, we have to get to the bottom of that

quickly. a last—minute intervention talking about mock results counting has spooked everybody and the fact teachers will be meeting students who will say i want to have an appeal based on my mark, a school leader will have to see i have no idea because we have no guidance. that is not good enough.|j idea because we have no guidance. that is not good enough. i would like to ask about two specific things the education secretary has said this morning. he said 97% of pupils will be awarded the greatest goal gave them all within one grade of it. all the flexibility that universities have been asked to give stu d e nts universities have been asked to give students compensate for those differences in grades? and when gavin williamson says the overwhelming majority of students will know by the end of today if they are going to university, do you think that is the case? on the first one, i think there is going to be an undoubted spirit of generosity from the university sector partly because they recognise these are

unprecedented times and partly pragmatically there are going to be more spaces. if you are that young man who has got lower than expected grades, the chances are you may be able to get into university, particularly if your school contacts at university and says you are going to miss out on someone really good. you could still look at that, though, and see in life later when i look back at the grades i got that day, whereas i think in an examination yet i would have got those higher grades, this year even though i got into university there will still be a sense of dissatisfaction inevitably and that is the times we are in. the second question, i think the majority of young people will know by the end of today, they might look at clearing before making a decision, but they will know by the end of today if they have a place or not. do you have concerns around the different positions of students in

scotland, compared to other parts of the uk, if they are chasing the same course, the same place at university? do you think students in scotla nd university? do you think students in scotland will have an advantage everywhere else because there was results, they are able to base their results, they are able to base their results on what the teachers predicted? yes, it is bizarre, isn't it, to see such strange anomalies across the uk. i think that's two things we learned. if you look at wales and northern ireland, where as—level grades continue to stand, that has helped the teacher assessment process significantly, and england is the outlier, in terms of not getting that assessment under the belts early on. scottish greats, you could argue it both ways, some young people would have got a great ain young people would have got a great a in scotland, and in england they would have got a couple bravo. in the short term, that might be an advantage to them. arguably, you could argue that a university would look at a grade b, that was

predicted a a in england, think, thatis predicted a a in england, think, that is the student i'm going to take. it is unhelpful we have those disparities, but we have got them. good to have your thoughts on that. jeff boutin, thank you very much. let's return to our main story this morning. a level and vocational results in england, wales and northern ireland are being released, amid continuing controversy about how they are being calculated. they're up this year by about 2% for top a* and a grades. this could be the highest ever proportion of a*s and as, exam boards are checking to confirm. let's have a look at the breakdown. 9% of entries were a* — that's up from 7.8% in 2019. 27.9% were a* and a — that's up from 25.5% last year. 78.4% of entries were a*—c — up from 75.8%.

0n downgrades in the moderation process, 36% of entries were downgraded by one grade, compared with grades predicted by teachers. 0ur correspondent dan johnson is at a sixth form college in hull for us. i'm wondering if those details that we have just read out, i'm wondering if those details that we havejust read out, obviously you're just getting your head around those as well, are they reflected in the school where you are? well, perhaps not. because although the overall message is that grades are slightly off, there do seem to be a lot of disappointed students here this morning. although, of course, many have got lots to celebrate, there are some who have been surprised by what they have found in their envelopes and are now looking at what their options are, in terms of appealing or trying to get a different place at university through clearing. it's been a busy morning, with lots of people coming in to find out what their results are. this is probably the first time

they have been in the building since they have been in the building since the lockdown really happened. an interesting morning, with lots to consider, lots to work out. let's chat with a couple students. holly, tell us about your results, you're pretty please? yes, i got a b in psychology, got a distinction star in theatre, and i'm still waiting for my music raid, but i got a rundown of what i got and i got distinctions in each of the units. do you know why you are still waiting for the music grade? think they had technical difficulties, but they had technical difficulties, but they should get it sorted. how are you feeling about how it has been run, do you think your results are a fair representation?” run, do you think your results are a fair representation? i think so, i did btec, so a lot of the work is based on coursework. so it's the stuff i have been graded on throughout the two years. my psychology, i got bs in my mock exams, so was psychology, i got bs in my mock exams, so was expecting a b. i'm glad it didn't go down. now i'm

going to hull university. thanks for talking to us. different picture for you, you got a nasty surprise?” talking to us. different picture for you, you got a nasty surprise? i was happy that i got a distinction star in engineering, maths, i got a happy that i got a distinction star in engineering, maths, i gota d, arti in engineering, maths, i gota d, art i got a d, physics, in engineering, maths, i gota d, art i gota d, physics, i in engineering, maths, i gota d, art i got a d, physics, i got in engineering, maths, i gota d, art i gota d, physics, i gota e. that doesn't really make sense, because in engineering, which is maths and physics, i got that distinction star. the one that reflects all of the work that i've done over the past few years, i got the highest grade i could possibly get. it seems that has been some unfairgrading, get. it seems that has been some unfair grading, downgrading. disappointing. i'm not used to failing, so when i opened them i had a bit ofa failing, so when i opened them i had a bit of a cry. i was really upset, i couldn't speak, really. i was

really upset. are you feeling any karma about it now? not really, i didn't get into the uni that i wanted. that is definite. you missed out? i missed out on a place in durham to do engineering, i didn't get into my insurance, sheffield, to do engineering. i'm going to have to go through clearing or resit the exams. so that is it for me, really. this is not just exams. so that is it for me, really. this is notjust about grades on the record, this will decide your future? my future has been set back completely. i will have to wait one or two mackerel years now to go to uni and that will set me back. and then three years at uni. so, i mean, i could be in a job by the time i'm going to my first year of university. but now i can't do that, all because i didn't get to sit the exams, which wasn't my choice, i have sat the exams. it was up to the government. there were bubbles, there were options. are you angry? definitely, there have been loads of

people crying, not getting the results they wanted. and it is just down to... i mean something that wasn't our choice, really. it's a pandemic, what could we do about it? we have no decision. you think you have lost out and you are suffering because of the way things have been run? definitely. the only one i actually got my actual grade in was engineering, and it just actually got my actual grade in was engineering, and itjust goes to show, i got a top grade and something that i put the hard work into and it got recognised, but everything else, i didn't. clearing, does not give you a chance? everything else, i didn't. clearing, does not give you a chance7m everything else, i didn't. clearing, does not give you a chance? it does, but i had my heart set on durham. and it's now not an option for clearing, because there is no clearing, because there is no clearing for my course. so it is either second—best or re—try again. and i don't want to settle for second best, really. i've worked so hard. to go with my first option. thank you for talking to us after such a difficult morning. we hope it works out one way or another. let's talk to colin, the principal. are those stories are representative of

the students this morning? absolutely, classic case in point. you can look at the overall data on think on average everybody is passing, but the anomalies within the system are not right. abby is a good student, a really good student. that is inconsistent. that is not looking at the date of the teachers have put forward thinking about it on cases. it's ok planning on average. i know it's difficult to do this for the government. but if you look at individual cases, smaller class sizes, surely look at the ability of the students, you don't look at last year's students because they are different. is that what has happened? the time they have had, the ability to look at particular colleges, you can apply an average toa colleges, you can apply an average to a large number of students to some extent, where you have smaller courses, they don't seem to have done anything with that. i am also seeing anomalies of grades that do not make sense to me. applying new grades that we got last year to stu d e nts grades that we got last year to students this year, that is lasting them for the rest of their life, and thatis them for the rest of their life, and that is not right. abbie is a prime example of many students we have seen this morning who have tried and left here really upset. in my 22

yea rs of left here really upset. in my 22 years of teaching, i've never seen such a negative feeling. that can't be right. watch it happen? are we going to see appeals? should there bea going to see appeals? should there be a bigger rethink?” going to see appeals? should there be a bigger rethink? i think you will see lots of appeals, but that will see lots of appeals, but that will lead to a bigger rethink. if we are seeing this across the board, there is something wrong. that's not about appealing, this is about the government back are looking at this properly and thinking, what has gone wrong, let's be honest about this, let's get it right, and let's look at the data again. look at scotland. what is going to happen here? it