this is bbc news, the headlines: kamala harris, the only black woman in the us senate, has been formally nominated at the democratic convention asjoe biden‘s vice presidential candidate. if the democrats win the november electiion, she would become the first female vice president in us history. hillary clinton and barack obama were among those who spoke in favour of the nomination. opposition supporters remain on the streets of belarus, as eu leaders agreed to impose sanctions on those involved in repression and election fraud in belarus. they have described the violence against demonstrators as unacceptable. thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes near the us city of san francisco, as a number of fast moving wildfires swept through the region. police have been going from door to door, urging people to leave. the governor of california has declared a state of emergency.

now on bbc news, it's hardtalk, where zeinab badawi speaks to former singaporean diplomat kishore mahbubani, who believes that covid—19 has fundamentally weakened the west. come to hardtalk with me, zeinab badawi. increasing tensions between united and china have plunged relations to their lowest level in decades. this comes at a time when the world is facing its worst recession in living memory. could this reshape the global order? my guest is one of asia's most influential thinkers, kishore mahbubani, a former singaporean diplomat. he believes that covid—i9 has weakened the west and made china boulder. is he right that this is now asia's century?

kishore mahbubani, in singapore, welcome to hardtalk. why do you believe that covid—i9 will mark a shift in power to a sharp? covid-19 will only escalate the shift of power it was already happening beforehand, so we saw since the yeari until the 1800, beforehand, so we saw since the year i until the 1800, china year 1 until the 1800, china and india were always the largest economies and they are coming back but clearly covid—19 is accelerating it because what is a big shot to the world is that the most competent commentaries in dealing with the pandemic are the asian countries. the number of deaths per million in east asian countries, south korea, asian, others, is less then ten. in europe, it is in the hundreds. in the united states, in the hundreds. why is this happening? i do not know when. it is an indicator. when it

comes to competence in governance, it is shifting to asia. that is a pretty fleeting statement! are you not reading too much into this? it could be that asian countries that had to deal with avian flu and stars in the past 20 years, which has perhaps improved responses and senegal in africa did well because of its response to ebola six years ago and learned important lessons — - sars. and learned important lessons — — sars. that could be a reflection that they are better prepared, you reading too much into this? you are absolutely right. it could be because of the past preparations but i suspect it reflects also something quite deeper, canada has also suffered from sars, as singapore did and certainly, the more competent medical systems in the world were a lwa ys systems in the world were always supposed to be in the west, in every sense of the term and he had much better healthcare systems as well. this is why i am saying it is

very puzzling that the east asian countries have done so well. if you look at the economic picture as well, the first economy to really bounce back from covid—19 is china. you have written many books, you write evidence based and someone but the fact of the matter is when you mention china and how it has responded well, we simply do not know, president macron in france in april when he asked about the response, he said let's not be so naive to say that china has been better at handling this. we do not know. there are clearly things that have happened that we do not know about. the chinese are accused by many of withholding information, you do not get the com plete information, you do not get the complete picture. i'm very well aware of the perceptions of china. i suspect that president macron was making his statement 19 april by in august and september, it would be a different picture he would give today. in the case of china,

you are right, we cannot get all the information but there is data, there are people going down there and my friends have actually gone to china and they we re actually gone to china and they were in shanghai a few weeks ago and they were quite amazed that all the restaurants are full in shanghai! amazing! you cannot get a booking! life is returned to normal. . .. that is what berlusconi said the italian prime minister when italy was deep in economic problems, he said that the restau ra nts problems, he said that the restaurants were all full. very anecdotal. you made your point on china, you will not be swayed. you have a new book on china, one strategically placed over your shoulder there, you have said there about china, that in asia, its neighbours, no—one feels comfortable sharing a small room with an elephant, no matter how benign.

but the fact of the matter is many of china's neighbours do not see it as a benign powers. it isa not see it as a benign powers. it is a new level of concern over china. let's be clear about that, 0k? china used to have an economy one tenth the size of united states, in 1980, isa size of united states, in 1980, is a bigger economy then the united states. it's become much bigger when you become much bigger when you become much bigger it is perfectly natural for the neighbours to be concerned. the big question is most of the time are they getting along with china or are they confronting china? and this is the one thing that you have to give credit to china for. most of the time, they are getting on with china and guess what? for many, even america's allies, in east asia, japan, south korea, philippines and thailand, they do more trade with china than they do with the united states of america. so the chinese have clearly

caused a lot of concern but i believe they are also managing and making mistakes.” believe they are also managing and making mistakes. i was questioning your use of the word benign because when you hear what some of china's neighbours say, particularly pertaining to the fact it has set up military bases in the south china sea, malaysia is very annoyed, vietnam, the philippines, and the malaysian prime minister warned against a new version of chinese colonialism. indonesia, in june this year, sent a letter to the united nations stating that it economic interests are jeopardised by china's territorial gains in the south china sea. i could go on and on with numerous examples. they do not see china as benign, kishore mahbubani.” not see china as benign, kishore mahbubani. i completely agree with you. in fact i agree that that term benign is an oxymoron. china is not benign united states is not benign.

every superpower will defend its interests. that is the 3000 year rule of politics. they will not change, the united states or china. but you also mention that the malaysian prime minister said in 2019 about a new form of chinese colonialism. guess where he was in april 2020? april 2019, colonialism. guess where he was in april2020? april2019, he was in china for the belt and road initiative, one of the opening keynote takers! the setbacks is a huge flower ship —— flagship policy by xi jinping, in 2012, but it is facing setbacks to build infrastructure projects all over the world because of covid—19, it is meant that there is slow economic growth in china and elsewhere. there are growth and debt issues, high project costs and all the rest of it and a lack of local participation, even local opposition so perhaps things are changing on that score? you

know, it's important to get the timeframe right, 0k? the belt and road initiative is not a one year, two year initiative. it isa one year, two year initiative. it is a 100 year initiative. and the chinese probably have something planned over the next 30 or a0 years and when you ta ke 30 or a0 years and when you take a long journey, there will be setbacks but let me give you one statistic. countries around the world are free to join the belt and road initiative or to reject the belt and road initiative and japan has rejected it, india has rejected it, australia has rejected it that out of 193 member states and the un, 120 have signed up tojoin the belt and the un, 120 have signed up to join the belt and road initiative. if three and four rejected hundred and 20 accept, isa rejected hundred and 20 accept, is a failure or success? no, i said it is suffering setbacks, for reasons that may become apparent as a carry on talking.

but you have also described china is arguably having the most met aquatic government in the world. the british historian max hastings has accused you of letting off chinese authoritarianism and repression of human and civil rights forfar too repression of human and civil rights for far too lightly. aren't you guilty of doing that, kishore mahbubani?” aren't you guilty of doing that, kishore mahbubani? i am not a defender of chinese authoritarianism. i am an objective observer of chinese performance just for your information, the harvard kennedy school has come out with a study injuly 2020, pointing out that the level of support for the chinese communist party in the chinese population, and they did the survey over several years, has been going up steadily. why is that happening? are the chinese people stupid? that happening? are the chinese people stupid ? why that happening? are the chinese people stupid? why are they going from 80% to 90% for support for the chinese communist party because the chinese communist party has

become, and this is what i'm talking about, one of the most met aquatic institutions in the world and i tell a story in my book, and i had a research assistant in my book, a bright young student from china telling me the story of her life, and she was so sad, number two life, and she was so sad, numbertwo in life, and she was so sad, number two in the class and i asked you what's wrong with being number two in the class? and she said only the number one is selected to join the chinese communist party. so you can imagine the aspirations of young people in china, the best people. . .. young people in china, the best people.... you know young people in china, the best people. . .. you know what, kishore mahbubani. .. 0ne people. . .. you know what, kishore mahbubani... one could cite numerous examples and you know that. there was a recent example in the economist magazine thing that many in the chinese communist party resent the brutal campaign by shipping, to eliminate enemies and the degree of opposition he faces is reflected in the number of personnel changes, he is engineered in the military

and hierarchies. plenty of exa m ples of and hierarchies. plenty of examples of his authoritarianism and at home and also in his reduction of autonomy in hong kong —— president xijinping, the treatment of the week population, and many were held in concentration camps —— uighers. i'm glad you mentioned economist because that magazine in 2020 came out with a cover story pointing out quite amazingly, people keep thinking that the chinese economy is going to collapse and have many problems, that the economy cannot recover and economists is one of the most critical of china, saying do not count on china, saying do not count on china collapsing —— the economist magazine is one of the most critical of china. what i'm trying to capture is that as a political analysis you must never engage in

wishful thinking and i understand what you are dealing with and the china we are dealing with today, in 2020, is the most formidable china that has ever been. the chinese people have experienced a greater improvement in their standard of living in the past a0 yea rs standard of living in the past a0 years then they have in the past a000 years. a0 years then they have in the past 4000 years. they have seen that but you know now because of covid—19, slowing global economy, recession, the worst in decades, the imf is now forecasting a growth rate in china of about 1%. 0k, granted there is a drop of 8% in the united states, fireworks, and in india, also a forecast of 8% drop, that china may be doing well but by own standards, 1% growth is really very bad and is what the former australian prime minister kevin rudd, a big watcher of china, six mandarin and all the rest of it set, he said that an already

slowing economy and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the us i now covid—19 have placed president xijinping leadership under its greatest internal pressure yet. leadership under its greatest internal pressure yetlj leadership under its greatest internal pressure yet. i have enormous respect for kevin rudd and you are right. he is a very good china watcher but at the same time, i also have a lot of other friends who watch china equally carefully added the low matter of context. at a time when no major global economy, not one, can register positive economic growth after this massive global recession, china is registering positive economic growth. and of course china could fail, like i com pletely china could fail, like i completely agree with that, china could fail but if you are a realistic planner, are you going to plan for something that may or may not happen? in the case of china, you have two plants, one may fail but one may succeed enormously and if

it succeeds enormously, guess what? we have a different global world, a very different global world, a very different global chemistry and now we have to do with a new elephant in the room. so i'm trying to help the west and they prepare yourself for something that you never imagined. what tony has accomplished in the past a0 years is something no—one had imagined. the past a0 years is something no-one had imagined. with the covid—19 pandemic we are seeing many countries retreat from globalisation, countries like the uk said we can't even produce our own personal equipment, there is a merchandiser to diversify and shorten supply chains, localise them, and that would operate to china's detriment because of because it has been so plugged into all of this. yes and no. i will give you an example stoppage apartment is financing its industries, —japan is

taking them out of the region. southeast asia benefits. southeast asia benefits. southeast asia's biggest trading partner is trying there isa trading partner is trying there is a circle here. by the way i would say don't rate of globalisation yet, please, because i want to emphasise the reason asian economies are coming back so fast as the biggest beneficiaries of globalisation. nobody in east asia wants to walk away from globalisation, theyjust have to do things differently and be more careful and i don't either story that they will be to globalisation and in east asia, people are not closing the doors. bloomberg has said that evenif doors. bloomberg has said that even if relocations, bringing production back on shore, even if these relocations are small, bloomberg says the chef suggest that the trend of globalisation to localisation is real, but we will have to see. turning to

the united states. just one line. the law of competitive advantage has not changed. if countries that obey the laws of comparative advantage succeed and do well in the countries that don't enclose themselves up that don't enclose themselves up like north korea, they will not do well. the law of competitive advantage is a higher economic law. sticking with the economy, sam sachs from yale in the united states has shown that united states and china are willing to weaponised global trade, both of you technology firms are not global actors. we are now seeing how dominance of artificial intelligence has become a key component of the rivalry of power between the united states and china. that is the real battleground now, isn't it? absolutely. i com pletely isn't it? absolutely. i

completely agree with you. if you ask me, i wish that states and china could have had some kind of basic agreement on what they can or cannot co—operate they can or cannot co—operate the technology field, but there isa the technology field, but there is a major school of thought in the united states, and the united states is trying to suit jo suppressed the rise of china, and they believe the only reason china has succeeded is they are in the american market, and they are trying to decouple china with america, hoping that china would collapse, but i wouldn't bet on that china would collapse, because china has invested so much in its own technology, and there is technology coming that will create lots of competition a lot of countries, but this is an unpleasant reality that we have to live with. it shows how business and economic and trade logic no longer prevails in this relationship between china and the united states. even if it hurts profits, united

states, and donald trump is saying to companies, cut your ties with for example, we chat, the chinese app. even if it causes harm, and this was put to donald trump, he said whatever. we are seeing a real change, a hardening in the position of the united states. that is basically what my book is about, trying to explain why the united states are standing up the united states are standing up to china. at the same time i also hope that the united states will focus on the most important reality of the united states, which is that the average income of the bottom 50% has gone down over a 30 year period, and university economists have described how there is a sea of despair among there is a sea of despair among the white working class, so united states has to revive its economy and make it strong again, and guess what. the most dynamic economies are in east asia. china is one of them, but

there are others over here, so if the united states wants to jumpstart if the united states wants to jumpsta rt its economy if the united states wants to jumpstart its economy and include the world, it has two co—operate with asia. at some point in time it will come back. we are seeing that ship the. apple has only said it is shifting part of its manufacturing of its iphones to india, notjust in china. we are seeing bands of sales of us computer chips to china, and you make it out as though it is just united states, but it is who fired the first shot in this technology war, google, facebook and by china, so there is reciprocal action. you can blame both sides. you can blame both sides but at the same time, let's be fair. the trump administration has been acting erratically, irrationally, without a strategy, henry kissinger told me this. the

chinese do have a plan and they are working according to it, and so, if the united states wa nts to and so, if the united states wants to enhance its own interests, and i'm not saying that the united states should act its against its own interest, the united states should be doing, cooperating with the world in the united states walked away from the transpacific partnership that it had been negotiating for yea rs, it had been negotiating for years, a geopolitical achievement which trump through away. henry kissinger told you that there is no proper strategy. a slightly long quotes strategy. a slightly long q u otes to strategy. a slightly long quotes to give to you but one by the former mi6 chief, the british obviously, speaking in july of this year. we must be careful not to turn china into an enemy, as you are just saying, we need is engagement in crucial issues such as

climate change and regulating international trade, but china's leadership must also understand they will pay a price if they try to impose the system and standards on other countries, either through the belt and road initiative by manipulating economic leverage for political ends or by more forceful military and intelligence actions. so, there is also an onus on china to be mindful of what has just been outlined their. china is not interested in exporting communism to the rest of the world, so mike pompeo is wrong on that. the second point is the americans believe that the american society, the american example is universalise more, so anyone can become an american, you and i can become americans, and they would love it if we became americans toner is different. china, the chinese view is that chinese civilisation is good, but it is for the chinese are. the chinese are trying to

strengthen togolese civilisation to make it once again the strongest but there would be very puzzled and said cani would be very puzzled and said can i become trainees, they would say no, you are not chinese. us secretary of state, talking of america and chinese ties, we have seen a real deterioration you could argue because of what has gone over taiwan and the us health secretary pays a visit to taiwan, the biggest visit in a0 yea rs, taiwan, the biggest visit in a0 years, makes inflammatory state m e nts years, makes inflammatory statements about taiwan, and we have seen recently military exercises in the region by china. so, there is real concern now that is the foreign minister of tony awards, — china warns they are pulling back from touching upon redlines of the relationship, of course taiwan a big redline for china. might we actually

see an escalation in relations between the us and china? a military confrontation possibly? i am very worried because i fear there are some people in the drug administration who believe that the only way to get donald trump elected now because the polls so thatjoe biden is leading, the only way that they get donald trump elected is to start a small naval skirmish in the south china sea, and then there is a rally around the flag and their donald trump gets re—elected. that would be very very dangerous, and as you know when you start the sort of naval skirmishes, especially within two nuclear powers, it can get out of hand, things can get out of control, so i hope there will be a senior, wiser voices saying please don't do that, and i was happy to learn that, and i was happy to learn that the defence secretary of the united states may be going to china in the nearfuture, and if that happens that will be very good for the world because at the end of the day,

these two powers have to talk to each other, and they have to talk to each other. thank you very much kishore mahbubani in singapore for coming on hardtalk. my pleasure. southern parts of ireland are feeling the full force of storm ellen. here in the uk, also very blustery. the winds will increase in many parts of the uk over the next couple of days or so. it's likely to be very unsettled with this storm closely spinning by. now the worst of the weather has gone over southern parts of ireland, where the destructive winds

in places have been. we're just to the east of the storm, so winds will be pretty strong around the coast of cornwall, western fringes of wales, but it will be particularly windy in northern ireland, too. now having said that, the weather actually doesn't look too bad at all for most of us on thursday. there will be some rain in the morning across parts of scotland, but once that clears through, apart from a few showers across western areas, blustery ones the weather is looking mostly sunny. so it'll be a weird day where we have quite strong winds, but also with that, some strong sunshine and decent temperatures. in fact, look at the values in east anglia, up to 26 celsius, 22 in newcastle, and into the 20s where we have these blustery conditions out towards the west, as well. now through the course of thursday evening, the rain becomes more widespread across western fringes of the uk, and the winds will strengthen once again. a bit of a lull with that warmth and sunshine in the afternoon. because by the time we get to friday, what is left of storm ellen will be barreling across the uk — and that means,

more generally speaking, it'll be a windy day right across the uk. now gusts of wind inland friday into saturday could exceed 50 mph — and this time of year, that's not good and could prove very troublesome during the summer where the trees are in full leaf, a 50 mph wind could bring down a weaker tree. so be prepared for some disruption as we go through the course of friday and into the weekend. now saturday will still be blustery because what's left of the storm is still with us. frequent showers out towards the northwest of the uk. take a look at these winds a0—50 mph, that is unusually windy for august. to the south of us, it won't be quite so windy but breezy enough, with temperatures getting up to the low 20s. sunday will be a calmer day.

this is bbc news. i'm david eades with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the democratic party formally nominates kamala harris as vice presidential candidate forjoe biden's us election bid, as she addresses the party convention. it is not aboutjoe biden or me. it's about you. and it is about us. people of all ages and colours and creeds. former president barack obama accuses donald trump of treating the us presidency as though it were nothing but a reality show and calls on people to vote forjoe biden and kamala harris. 170,000 americans dead. millions ofjobs, gone. while

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