leading belarus opposition figure maria kalesnikova is missing — following more mass protests against president lukanshenko. the european union has strongly condemned the authorities in belarus for what it called arbitary and unexplained arrests and detentions before and after the falsified presidential election in august. two dozen wildfires are blazing across california — one believed to have been started by a firework at a party. the fires have been made worse by a heatwave across the state scientists have recorded the highest ever temperature in los angeles county of forty—nine point four degrees celsius. the latest "big change" in coronavirus infections across the uk is of "great concern", england's deputy chief medical officer has warned. the latest figures show a jump in the number of cases, with just short of three—thousand new confirmed infections in the latest 24—hour period which is far higher than in recent months.

it's half past midnight. now on bbc news it's time for hardtalk... welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. with just two months until the us presidential election the polls show president donald trump trailing byjoe biden by a significant margin. this is an extraordinary election year marked by a pandemic, economic crisis, street protests over alleged police racism and a toxic political atmosphere. my guess is the veteran upholsterer and republican party consultant frank lunt. can donald trump win and should republicans want him to?

franca, welcome to hardtalk. thank you. let others begin by dealing with your meat and drink. that is the polls that you watch like a hot day and night. they suggest right now that donald trump faces the most uphill task of an incumbent president to win this election of any president since george bush senior in 1992. is that the way you see it right now? i think that joe biden has a significant lead. i do not think it is insurmountable. if the election were held today joe biden is the next president but it's not being held today. it's roughly 60 days from now.

and there is plenty of time and three presidential debates until now when voters cast their ballots. do you still see your self as very much a republican pollster in this election? are you a partisan?” don't think so. i've not been a partition for a long time. i know that that frustrates the president, it does not give solace to the democrats. myjob is to see it as it is. not as i wish it to be. i do not take sides. and there are things positive to say about both candidates. and some very negative things to communicate about both candidates. ——. looking at the numbers myself to be honest, scratching my head to see much evidence of this tightening you speak of. so where is a? it is happening in florida, north carolina, it

is not happening in pennsylvania. i don't want to go state—by—state. there are two critical components that viewers should appreciate. number one is that americans do not vote by popular vote. we have a unique and some say antiquated system but it adds the guy has worked for the country. where we choose state— by—state country. where we choose state—by—state and a president as donald trump did in 2016 can lose the popular vote and still get elected. in those king suite swing states and are 11 of them in total. donald trump is about two and a half percent closer to than joe biden nationwide was up and that suggest it is possible that donald trump could lose by three percentage points which is about four—point, maybe four—point to you, for .2 million voters and still be elected president. one of them, you call them a rival or nate silver, a number crunch he says right now biden has a 71%

chance of winning. if you were to give a number what would you give a? oh, i might ever say at this .75%. but nate silver was giving hillary clinton about an 80% chance of winning until roughly a0 hours before the election. you can't make a conclusion or a projection and be accurate about it until there is been at least one presidential debate.” there is been at least one presidential debate. i take your point although i am mindful that you also did predict even on election night that hillary clinton was get a win. so you are not absolved from some mistakes yourself. and it was after the second presidential debate when i said that donald trump was back in the race. and it was the bbc who said to me, i must be a partisan because there is no way that donald trump could be elected president. but he performed well enough without in his opponent performed badly enough that i gave donald trump new momentum. and this is why the debate matter. it is dangerous to make a projection

right now. you have been in this business a long time. you speak with a great deal of experience. and you are known for delving deep into the mindset of american voters of all different stripes. explained to me what is happening on donald trump. because we know he has a very consistent core. 0ne because we know he has a very consistent core. one could even say die—hard support that may be amounts to one third of voters. but of course, he needs to go beyond that if he is to retain that. he does need to retain that. he does need to retain some of the more floating voters. it looks like as his presidency is become ever more controversial, he is turning off those people who would not identify themselves as long—term die—hard trump supporters. would you accept that? i accept that. i actually embraced out. i'll give you three examples. donald trump talks about law and order, the problem is when an american here is that phrase law and order they think police beating up order they think police beating up protesters with text. the american people want public safety. the ability to walk

through your neighbourhood and streets at night and not be afraid. donald trumps calls his supporters warriors. and they see themselves as hard—working taxpayers. a warrior is a violent description of a hard—working taxpayer violent description of a ha rd—working taxpayer is violent description of a hard—working taxpayer is out people fail. example, when donald trump says that there is a silent majority went really what the voters want is to be heard. they want to be listened to, they want the president to be their voice was out i believe that donald trump is off in his language. that he is off in his language. that he is off his messaging. and unless he fixes it between now and the debates then what is currently happening is going to happen. is thatjoe biden will get elected. you've told me you're not partisan. i do know you have visited the white house many times during the course of the trump presidency. i know you are good mates with the interim acting chief of staff mr mulvaney. and i believe you gave him credit we met plenty of advice over many months. are you advising the trump campaign

now? i'll take it one step further. mr mulvaney was a guest in my home in los angeles. and i was there on the white house lawn when donald trump gave his acceptance speech at the convention. yes, i'm very friendly with them. but in the last six months i've actually met with joe but in the last six months i've actually met withjoe biden four times and i've met with donald trump not even once. my job is to know both campaigns, to know both candidates so i can analyse both efforts from the perceptive of the voters was up in one of the rare posters who gets a chance to meet both candidates from across the aisle. i am interested that you said to be just a moment ago, you think donald trumps messaging is off. and you linked it to what we've seen and recent weeks, the deep unease in america of both allegations are a racist policing and some of the protests of course, a limited

number of those protesters have turned violent. kelly and conway who is now departing the white house, but a senior adviser to donald trump set on august 27 she said, the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence rains the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order. that key phrase the better it is, did you find that sickening or not? i found it chilling as the language i would use. because in the end, nobody wants their country to come apart. and i'm very concerned about our democracy. if you want to know where things are as opposed to trying to make me look foolish, we will discuss the state of american democracy. which i believe is at a weaker point and a more dangerous point then at any and a more dangerous point then atany time and a more dangerous point then at any time in my lifetime. and i'm particularly afraid of what can happen on election day. and if you'll allow me, i will

actually enlighten you and your viewers about what i think it's gonna happen. because it's going to shock you. may i? well, you may. i was gonna come to it later but let's come to it right now. because i believe what you are alluding is what appears to be the almost certain problem that because the mailing vote, and there are going to be many millions of them in this election, because them in this election, because the mailing and votes are not can be counted on election night certainly not completely counted. there may be the appearance of one winner on election night itself and that may change radically in the days to come. is that what you're getting at? explain it to me. that is exactly the point. that the voters of donald trump want to vote on election day in the traditional way. the voters ofjob i don't wa nt to way. the voters ofjob i don't want to vote by mail which has been increasingly allowed in the country. there is a battle over that. and so i believe that when they count the machine ballots on election day, donald trump will have a lead in some states it may be

significant. but as they through the mail and as the days go on i thinkjoe biden is going to at this point, he's going to at this point, he's going to at this point, he's going to equal the trump vote and then surpass it. and so you are going to have people on election night on the democratic side angry, feeling that they've been robbed and election victory and as the day goes on it's going to beat the republicans who think that the election is being stolen. i will tell you this, we had this in 2000, i was there, i was doing focus groups during that time. and i watch as the country came apart. it is essential in a democracy the loser to acknowledge the victory of the winter. to go on maybe not to co—operate with them, maybe not to compromise with them but to accept it and then prepare for the next election. so let usjudge the two candidates on whether you believe they are going to be willing to behave with that level of response ability. and let me begin the questioning on that by quoting to you donald trump from twitter in may

saying, there is no way brackets zero! that mail in ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent. that's where he begins.” understand that. and that does concern me. it's why i'm so afraid. it's why am so upset. asa afraid. it's why am so upset. as a poster you cannot look at this election a matter where you stand personally, you cannot look at this election and feel good about it. you cannot pay to your kids in the next generation, this is how they should be waged and this is how it should be won. and you cannot be an example for the world if you are such a mess domestically. and i believe it is a mess. and i believe it is a mess. and i believe it is a mess. and i believe it is a problem and i believe it is a problem and i believe that donald trump and joe biden should make a commitment, and we know it's going to be either the first question our last question in the very first debate, will you accept the election results? and i pray to god the answer is yes. what if it's not? then god help us. barack obama said this

just a few weeks ago, he said, this trump administration has shown it will tear our democracy down if that's what it takes to win. is there a pa rt it takes to win. is there a part of you that for years, despite all your connections over decades to and republican presidential candidates, is there a part of you that believes barack there a part of you that believes ba rack 0bama there a part of you that believes barack obama is right? yes. and you should be so surprised about that or put that question in a way that you and this is classic hardtalk, which is why want to do this, absolutely. to me hold on, hold on, to me the health of democracy is more important than any one candidate. the belief, the faith, the confidence that people have in the electoral process is essential to the health of the democracy. there is nothing more important, not accountability, not impact, the most important aspect of

whether people believe that the system is just and fair is if they believe that the election system is above reproach. and they do in america right now and that is fundamental. you are making a hugely important point. the next question for you as one of the most experienced political operators in america is whether in your judgement, and you just told me you've had four meetings with joe biden sent your last meeting with president donald trump, in your judgement, meeting with president donald trump, in yourjudgement, is joe biden more likely to accept the legitimacy of the result when it is finally announced including all the male ends as well as the votes cast on the day more likely than donald trump to accept a? it's not an issue whetherjoe biden or donald trump are likely, that question is the country. this is not about two individuals was that this is where i'm fun to live mentally both concerned and focus on. to me what does the public say, what do the 320 million american say? 0r donald

trump andjoe million american say? 0r donald trump and joe biden say on this one issue is irrelevant. do we have a country that accept who governs them, do we have a country that can move on and resolve so many crisis that we are facing right now? i don't remember a time since 1968 that it is as frightening for the american people. this is the worst in 52 years. if the country accepted, that is what is important. i don't know the a nswer to is important. i don't know the answer to that with 58 days ago. just to dig back into your expertise into the way this election may pan out. you've already talked to me about the chilling impact you feel some of the statements coming out of the trump white house have had on the tensions, the race tensions across america today. it looks from the polling as though it's having mixed effect. ultimately, a small majority of american seals seem to have some some sympathy with the street protests against what is your alleged police

racism. there is also clear disquiet particular months white americans about the level of violence that has ensued. let me give you specific numbers so we can have an informed discussion. which is remarkable to me, 59% of americans still have a favourable impression of the police. 59%, the same number have a favourable impression of black lives matter. 0nly16% wa nt to black lives matter. 0nly16% want to defund the police. and yet the vast majority believe that we need accountability measures and reform. so you can be pro—protest and pro—police at the same time. you can believe that there should be a fundamental changes and not defunding them. and that's why the words are so important. why i'm really the words are so important. why i' m really careful the words are so important. why i'm really careful about what i'm really careful about what i'm saying to you. and i wish that other pendants prognosticators, posters were as careful. how you do find it, determines out the public

reacts. and you can hold both thoughts into your head at the same time. in terms of the politics of this, it seems to me what donald trump and his tea m me what donald trump and his team hope is that their message frankly associating biden and the democrats with anarchy, chaos, socialists, leftist revolution, they are hoping that message will divert a great deal of oxygen and public attention away from what appears by the polls to be the overriding deepest concern of the american public. that is the american public. that is the impact of coronavirus. will that happen? it may happen. it's also about the economy. again, to statistics number one, only 6% of americans are undecided right now. which is why i believe thatjoe biden does have that significant lead. and it may be insurmountable. but not yet, not until the debates. second, there are only 11 states that

could actually switch between trump and biden. 0r could actually switch between trump and biden. or go back and forth. that means that we're going to spend all these billions of dollars in campaign and all this negativity and it's going to be for two point for percent of americans. the other 97.6% don't matter. and as far as they are concerned, the economy is just as important. and the difference between donald trump and joe biden on economic policy is stark. as wide as anything we've ever had. and the democratic party is to the left ofjoe biden. and so i don't think that trump is trying to divert attention, i think trump is trying to deal with my do a joe biden has not done which is to be suspect delete mac specific. ifjoe biden won't explain where he stands on taxes, on the budget, on the debt, on government spending, on size and scope of government, then it is the responsibility of the opponent to talk about it, to raise it. similarly, it donald trump won't talk about what's happened over the last six months thatjoe biden has the

responsibility to raise that as well. we have the right to know the truth as a democracy and our candidates have the responsibility to tell us the truth. and on that issue of coronavirus, i just want to know whether you think it is credible or possible to imagine a president winning reelection, having the record that donald trump has with the more than 6 million cases of infection, the 200,000 or so deaths in the united states, the worse figures in absolute terms of any country in the world. and with a president frankly who's peddled some quack theories, whose in many peoples view ignored expertise coming from his scientific advisers, is that a track record that over two months that followed this interview is going to really hurt president on the trunk? well, if this were ever played in america. the problem is that you set the question up in such a hostile way that it loses its

impact. my western have any factual inaccuracies in a? i'm telling you. if somebody who studied language that donald trump is going to lose on this issue thatjoe biden has i don't know how a 12 point, 15 point advantage, and on the issue of racejoe biden is advantages close to 20%. but the viewers of the show want you to present it in a tough way. but in a balanced way. and inafairway. way. but in a balanced way. and in a fair way. and calling donald trump a quack, just loses that sense of objectivity. you are correct, i wa nt to objectivity. you are correct, i want to compliment you on understanding the american political process and where things stand. i'm just giving you a little bit of advice. it's fascinating to have this discussion. i'm very careful andi discussion. i'm very careful and i did not say that donald trump isa and i did not say that donald trump is a quack what i said is that he has been heard and seen to paddle what is seen by experts as quack theories involving bleach, involving

some therapeutic treatments which the experts simply don't work. that is actually what i said. and what the american people are going to have to judge for themselves. and they willjudge for judge for themselves. and they will judge for themselves without an donald trump is not there to be helped by their position. and yet, we look at the economic numbers that were just released within the last 72 hours with it is incredible how fast this economy which was decimated in april, may, june, how fast it's come back in july, august and how manyjobs have been recreated. how much economic growth has started up again. if donald trump is to when he's going to have to focus on where the economy was in march and where the economy is today. and the fact that the same philosophy that went into giving america at its lowest unemployment in 50 years, its lowest black unemployment ever, its lowest latino unemployment ever, its lowest youth unemployment in 20 years, these are things not to ignore. and

trumps ability and the economies recognise an appalling trump only has an advantage on two issues right now. only two. the economy angina. and that's why the debates and can be so important. if trump doesn't do better on these other issues that he loses. then you are correct. but there is still an opportunity and certain numbers of the economy are favourable to donald trump right now. the reason we have you on is because we want this sort of analysis. but i want to end with the big question which actually moves us even yon the election, the count at your deep fares for the fact that it may be disputed. you as i said throughout this interview, you've been careful to explain your political career, but you have been associated with the republican party for many, many decades. just the other day a really interesting exchange, you are asked by a journalist, what do you think being a republican, and a republican party actually means today? and you could not come up with an

a nswer you could not come up with an answer in the age of donald trump. isn't that fundamentally dangerous for the future of the party that you've worked for andi party that you've worked for and i dare say, had a great deal of sympathy for over decades? it's not the sympathy of the party that mattered. it was a philosophy of small government. unless spending, less taxes and the fact is we've got a debt now that is bigger than it has ever been. it is expanding at a higher percentage rate. than any government has ever spent money in the us. and these are thing that i believed and still continue believe it is important. it is essential that you don't pay for what you cannot afford. that you don't create a situation where you have a la rgess create a situation where you have a largess and then our next generation has to pay for it. i don't think that's fair andi it. i don't think that's fair and i don't think that's just. i believe in the advice of thomas jefferson that you should not leave a debt for your kids. that you have a responsibility to live within your means. but i believejoe

biden and the democrats are even worse. in essence. . . biden and the democrats are even worse. in essence... if i'm a friend, ijust want to push you on this issue of the republicans and their future. frankly, the democrats don't regard you as their friend so much as the republicans do. and if you are saying that the republican party has sold out its core believes that its ideology to become the party of trump, i'mjust ideology to become the party of trump, i'm just asking you what long—term payback you think there is going to be?” long—term payback you think there is going to be? i don't how to answer that. and i'm being honest and candid and blunt with you. i don't know where the party goes from election day. and i don't know where the democracy goes from election day. and this is a time of deep reflection for me. i got sick at the same time the country got sick. and we are both dealing with it right now. i want to be accurate, i want to be honest, i want to be candid with that which is why i love this programme more than any other in any english

speaking television. and i'm telling you, all that i know right now is that the future of the gop is unclear and undefined. but so is the future of america. and that's what concerns me. well frank, we really wish you the very best with your health concerns with that and we will be tapping into your insights i hope for yea rs into your insights i hope for years to come. thank you very much indeed forjoining me on hardtalk. it is an honour. thank you. hello there. although for many of us monday was a cloudy day, we did have some rain as well across northwestern areas. we also had a few brighter moments. one of those captured

towards the end of the day across parts of devon. 0n the charts for a tuesday we've got low pressure to the north of the uk high pressure to the south and this front working eastward. this area is called a warm sector that's going to be moving right across the uk. bringing warm air, yes but increasing humidity. all that's going to do is taking the cloud up and bring some outbreaks of drizzle, mist and fog patches forming. will turn increasingly murky of the next few hours. a few spots of drizzle, no great amounts butjust some dampness in the air across the west. starting off with the day on tuesday we start off with that extensive cloud. best of the sunshine north and east of scotland northeast england also starting off sunny as well. elsewhere there could be a few breaks coming along in the cloud but it's always going to be a struggle to break the cloud against the west. staying quite grey. despite that, temperature still into the 20s. rain moves into the northwest

of scotland becoming persistent the end of the day for that if we do see any lengthy clear breaks some sunshine, it will feel warm, it will fill humid. that rain will continue to push southwards as we go through tuesday night. cold front extends towards england and wales, taking this rain with it. the front itself is moving towards high pressure so the front is weakening all the time. as it takes its cloud, rain and interns increasingly patchy as it works towards the south and east. temperatures on wednesday, lower and about five degrees lower across the north and east. you will notice that change. across the southeast, we're stilljust about hanging onto that warm air. temperature still around 22 or so in london. it will turn a bit fresher on thursday it will be fresher but of course in the sunshine it still september, it is still warm. after a sunny start cloud on thursday will tend to spread across the sky particularly across northern and western areas. a few showers to brush into the northwest of scotland. temperatures for many of us

around 15, 19 celsius we finished the week with low pressure moving and bringing wet and windy weather to the northwest. again the front weakens as it pushes through the southeast. that's your weather.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. i'm mike embley. a leading opposition figure in belarus is missing, amid more mass protests against president lukashenko. two dozen wildfires blaze across california as the heatwave sees los angeles county hits its highest—ever temperature. typhoon haishen has lashed south korea's east coast, causing landslides and bringing down power lines. hundreds of rohingya refugees land in indonesia after spending six months at sea. hello, peter. and pepper the "culturally aware" robot — the answer