welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. with just two months until the us presidential election, the polls show president donald trump trailing byjoe biden by a significant margin. this is an extraordinary election year marked by a pandemic, economic crisis, street protests over alleged police racism and a toxic political atmosphere. my guest is the veteran pollster and republican party consultant frank lu ntz. can donald trump win and should republicans want him to?

frank, welcome to hardtalk. thank you. let us begin by dealing with your meat and drink. that is the polls that you watch day and night. they suggest right now that donald trump faces the most uphill task of an incumbent president to win this election of any president since george bush senior in 1992. is that the way you see it right now? i think thatjoe biden has a significant lead. i do not think it is insurmountable. if the election were held today, joe biden is the next president. but it's not being held today. it's roughly 60 days from now. and there is plenty of time and three presidential debates until now when voters cast their ballots. do you still see yourself as very much a republican pollster in this election? are you a partisan? i don't think so.

i've not been a partisan for a long time. i know that that frustrates the president, it does not give solace to the democrats. myjob is to see it as it is. not as i wish it to be. i do not take sides. and there are things positive to say about both candidates. and some very negative things to communicate about both candidates. a pollster has to be objective. you have claimed in recent days that he see a tightening in some swing states. looking at the numbers myself, to be honest, i'm scratching my head to see much evidence of this tightening you speak of. so where is it? it is happening in florida, north carolina, it is not happening in pennsylvania. i don't want to go state—by—state. there are two critical components that viewers should appreciate. number one is that americans do not vote by popular vote.

we have a unique and some say, antiquated system that has worked for the country. where we choose state by state, and a president, as donald trump did in 2016, can lose the popular vote and still get elected. in those key swing states, and there are 11 of them in total, donald trump is about 2.5% closer to than joe biden than he is nationwide. so that suggests it is possible that donald trump could lose by three percentage points which is about 4.2 million or a5 million voters and still be elected president. one pollster, a rival, nate silver, a number cruncher, he says right now biden has a 71% chance of winning. if you were to give a number what would you give it? oh, i might even say at this point 75%. but nate silver was giving hillary clinton about an 80% chance of winning until roughly a0 hours before the election.

you can't make a conclusion or a projection and be accurate about it until there has been at least one presidential debate. i take your point, although i am mindful that you also did predict even on election night that hillary clinton was going to win. so you are not absolved from some mistakes yourself. and it was after the second presidential debate when i said that donald trump was back in the race. and it was the bbc who said to me i must be a partisan, because there is no way that donald trump could be elected president. but he performed well enough and his opponent performed badly enough that it gave donald trump new momentum. and this is why the debates matter. it is dangerous to make a projection right now. you've been in this business a long time. you speak with a great deal of experience. and you're known for delving deep into the mindset of american voters of all different stripes. explain to me what is happening with donald trump. because we know he has

a very consistent core, one could say even die—hard support, that maybe amounts to one third of voters. but of course, he needs to go beyond that if he is to retain power. he does need to retain some of the more floating voters. it looks like as his presidency has become ever more controversial, he is turning off those people who would not identify themselves as long—term die—hard trump supporters. would you accept that? i accept that, i actually embrace that. i'm going to give you three examples. donald trump talks about law and order, the problem is when an american hears that phrase, law and order, they think police beating up protesters with sticks. the american people want public safety. the ability to walk through your neighbourhood and streets at night and not be afraid. donald trump calls his supporters "warriors." and they see themselves as ha rd—working taxpayers. a warrior is a violent description of a hard—working

taxpayer, is how people feel. or the example, when donald trump says that there is a silent majority, when really what the voters want is to be heard. they want to be listened to, they want the president to be their voice. i believe that donald trump is off in his language, that he's off his messaging. and unless he fixes it between now and the debates then what is currently happening is going to happen, is thatjoe biden will get elected. you've told me you're not partisan. i do know you have visited the white house many times during the course of the trump presidency. i know you are good mates with the interim acting chief of staff, mr mulvaney, and i believe you gave him plenty of advice over many months. are you advising the trump campaign now? i'll take it one step further. mr mulvaney was a guest in my home in los angeles. and i was there on the white house lawn when donald trump gave his acceptance

speech at the convention. yes, i'm very friendly with them. but in the last six months i've actually met withjoe biden four times and i've met with donald trump not even once. myjob is to know both campaigns, to know both candidates, so i can analyse both efforts from the perspective of the voters, and i'm one of the rare pollsters who gets a chance to meet both candidates from across the aisle. i am interested that you said to me just a moment ago, you think donald trump's messaging is off. and you linked it to what we've seen in recent weeks, the deep unease in america of both allegations of racist policing and some of the protests and of course, a limited number of those protesters have turned violent. kelly—anne conway, who is now departing the white house, but a senior adviser to donald trump, said on august 27, she said, the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns,

the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order. that key phrase, "the better it is," did you find that sickening or not? i found it chilling, is the language i would use. because in the end, nobody wants their country to come apart. and i'm very concerned about our democracy. if you want to know where things are, as opposed to trying to make me look foolish, we will discuss the state of american democracy. which i believe is at a weaker point and a more dangerous point than at any time in my lifetime. and i'm particularly afraid of what can happen on election day. and if you'll allow me, i will actually enlighten you and your viewers about what i think it's gonna happen. because it's going to shock you. may i? well, you may. i was going to come to it later but let's come to it right now. because i believe what you are alluding is what appears to be

the almost certain problem that because the mail—in vote, and there are going to be many millions of them in this election, because the mail—in votes are not going to be counted on election night, certainly not completely counted, there may be the appearance of one winner on election night itself and that may change radically in the days to come. is that what you're getting at? explain it to me. that is exactly the point. that the voters of donald trump want to vote on election day in the traditional way. the voters ofjoe biden want to vote by mail, which has been increasingly allowed in the country. there is a battle over that. and so i believe that when they count the machine ballots on election day, donald trump will have a lead — and in some states it may be significant. but as they count the ballots through the mail, and as the days go on, i think joe biden is going to at this point, he's going to equal the trump vote and then surpass it. and so you are going to have people on election night

on the democratic side angry, feeling that they've been robbed an election victory, and as the day goes on, days go on, it's going to be the republicans who think that the election is being stolen. i will tell you this, we had this in 2000, i was there, i was doing focus groups during that time. and i watched as the country came apart. it is essential in a democracy for the loser to acknowledge the victory of the winter. to go on, maybe not to co—operate with them, maybe not to compromise with them, but to accept it and then prepare for the next election. so let us judge the two candidates on whether you believe they are going to be willing to behave with that level of responsibility. and let me begin the questioning on that by quoting to you donald trump from twitter in may saying, "there is no way (zero!) that mail in ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent. " that's where he begins. i understand that. and that does concern me.

it's why i'm so afraid, it's why am so upset. as a pollster you cannot look at this election, no matter where you stand personally, you cannot look at this election and feel good about it. you cannot say to your kids in the next generation, this is how they should be waged and this is how it should be won. and you cannot be an example for the world if you are such a mess domestically. and i believe it is a mess. and i believe it is a problem, and i believe that donald trump and joe biden should make a commitment, and we know it's going to be either the first question our last question in the very first debate, will you accept the election results ? and i pray to god the answer is yes. what if it's not? then god help us. barack 0bama said this just a few weeks ago, he said, "this trump administration has shown it will tear our democracy down if that's what it takes to win." is there a part of you that

fears, despite all your connections over decades to the republican party and republican presidential candidates, is there a part of you that believes barack 0bama is right? yes. and you should be so surprised about that? 0r put that question in a way that you — i mean, this is classic hardtalk, which is why i wanted to do this — absolutely! to me... stephen interjects. ..hold on, hold on. to me, the health of democracy is more important than any one candidate. the belief, the faith, the confidence that people have in their electoral process is essential to the health of the democracy. there is nothing more important, not accountability, not impact, the most important aspect of whether people believe that the system is just and fair, is if they believe that the election system is above reproach. and they do in america right now, and that's fundamental. you're making a hugely important point. so the next question for you,

as one of the most experienced political operators in america, is whether in yourjudgement, and you just told me you've had four meetings withjoe biden since your last meeting with president donald trump, in yourjudgement, isjoe biden more likely to accept the legitimacy of the result when it is finally announced, including all the mail—ins as well as the votes cast on the day, more likely than donald trump to accept it? it's not an issue whetherjoe biden or donald trump are likely, the question is the country. this is not about two individuals. and this is where i'm fundamentally both concerned and focused on. to me, the question is, what does the public say? what do the 320 million americans say? what donald trump and joe biden say on this one issue is irrelevant. do we have a country that accepts who governs them, do we have a country that can move on and resolve so many crises that we are facing right now?

i don't remember a time since 1968 that it is as frightening for the american people. this is the worst in 52 years. if the country accepts it, that is what's important. i don't know the answer to that with 58 days to go. just to dig back into your expertise on to the way this election may pan out. you've already talked to me about the chilling impact you feel some of the statements coming out of the trump white house have had on the tensions, the race tensions across america today. it looks from the polling as though it's having mixed effect. ultimately, a small majority of americans still seem to have some some sympathy with the street protests against what is alleged police racism. but there is also clear disquiet, particularly amongst white americans, about the level of violence that has ensued. so, let me give you specific numbers so we can have an informed discussion.

which is remarkable to me, 59% of americans still have a favourable impression of the police. 59%, the same number, have a favourable impression of black lives matter. 0nly16% want to defund the police. and yet the vast majority believe that we need accountability measures and reform. so you can be pro—protest and pro—police at the same time. you can believe that there should be fundamental changes and not defunding them. and that's why the language and the words are so important. why i'm really careful about what i'm saying to you. and i wish that other pundits, prognosticators, and pollsters were as careful. how you define it determines how the public reacts. and you can hold both thoughts in your head at the same time. in terms of the politics of this, it seems to me what donald trump and his team hope is that their message

frankly associating biden and the democrats with anarchy, with chaos, socialists, leftist revolution, they are hoping that message will divert a great deal of oxygen and public attention away from what appears by the polls to be the overriding deepest concern of the american public — that is, the impact of coronavirus. will that happen? it may happen. it's also about the economy. and again, let me give you two statistics, number one, only 6% of americans are undecided right now, which is why i believe that joe biden does have that significant lead, and it may be insurmountable. but not yet, not until the debates. and second, is that there are only 11 states that could actually switch between trump and biden, go back and forth. so that means that we're going to spend all these billions of dollars in the campaign and all this negativity and it's going to be for 2.4% of americans. the other 97.6% don't matter.

and as far as they're concerned, the economy is just as important. and the difference between donald trump and joe biden on economic policy is stark. as wide as anything we've ever had. and the democratic party is to the left ofjoe biden. and so i don't think that trump is trying to divert attention, i think trump is trying to do whatjoe biden has not done, which is to be specific on joe biden‘s policies. ifjoe biden won't explain where he stands on taxes, on the budget, on the debt, on government spending, on size and scope of government, then it is the responsibility of the opponent to talk about it, to raise it. similarly, if donald trump won't talk about what's happened over the last six months, thenjoe biden has the responsibility to raise that as well. we have the right to know the truth as a democracy and our candidates have the responsibility to tell us the truth.

and on that issue of coronavirus, i just wonder whether you think it is credible or possible to imagine a president winning reelection having the record that donald trump has, with the more than 6 million cases of infection, the 200,000 or so deaths in the united states, the worse figures in absolute terms of any country in the world. and with a president, frankly, who's peddled some quack theories, who in many people's view has ignored expertise coming from his scientific advisers, is that a track record that over the two months that follow this interview, is going to really hurt president trump? well, if this were ever played in america, the problem is that you set the question up in such a hostile way that it loses its impact. did my question have any factual inaccuracies in it? i'm telling you, as someone who has studied language, that donald trump is going to lose on this issue, thatjoe biden has, i don't know, a 12—point, maybe a 15—point advantage,

and on the issue of race, joe biden‘s advantage is close to 20%. but the viewers of this show want you to present it in a tough way, but in a balanced way and in a fair way. and calling donald trump a quack just loses that sense of objectivity. you are correct, i want to compliment you on understanding the american political process and where things stand. i'm just giving you a little bit of advice. no, it's fascinating to have this discussion. i'm very careful and i did not say that donald trump is a quack. what i said is that he has been heard and seen to peddle what is seen by experts as quack theories, involving bleach, involving some therapeutic treatments which the experts say simply don't work. that is actually what i said, and what the american people are going to have to judge for themselves. and they willjudge for themselves, and donald trump is not going to be helped by that position. and yet, we look at the economic numbers that

were just released within the last 72 hours, it is incredible how fast this economy — which was decimated in april, may, june — how fast it's come back injuly, august, and how many jobs have been recreated. how much economic growth has started up again. if donald trump is to win, he's going to have to focus on where the economy was in march and where the economy is today. and the fact that the same philosophy that went into giving america its lowest unemployment in 50 years, its lowest black unemployment ever, its lowest latino unemployment ever, its lowest youth unemployment in 20 years, these are things not to ignore. and trump's ability on the economy is recognised in the polling. trump only has an advantage on two issues right now, only two. the economy and china. and that's why the debates are going to be so important. if trump doesn't do better on these other issues then he loses, then you are correct.

but there is still an opportunity, and certain numbers in the economy are favourable to donald trump right now. the reason we have you on, frank, is because we want this sort of analysis. but i want to end with a big question which actually moves us even beyond the election, the count and your deep fears for the fact that it may be disputed. you, as i said throughout this interview, and you've been careful to explain your political career, but you have been associated with the republican party for many, many decades. now, just the other day in a really interesting exchange, you were asked by a journalist, "what do you think being a republican, and the republican party, actually means today?" and you could not come up with an answer in the age of donald trump. isn't that fundamentally dangerous for the future of the party that you've worked for, and i dare say had a great deal of sympathy for over decades? it's not the sympathy of the party that mattered.

it was a philosophy of smaller government, of less spending, of less taxes. and the fact is we've got a debt now that is bigger than it has ever been. it is expanding at a higher percentage rate than any government has ever spent money in the us. and these are things that i believed and still continue to believe is important, is essential, that you don't pay for what you cannot afford. that you don't create a situation where you have a largesse, and then our next generation has to pay for it. i don't think that's fair and i don't think that's just. i believe in the advice of thomas jefferson, that you should not leave a debt for your kids. that you have a responsibility to live within your means. but i believejoe biden and the democrats would be even worse. so, in essence... if i many, frank, and we are almost out of time, i just want to push you on this issue of the republicans and theirfuture. because frankly, the democrats don't regard you as their

friend so much as the republicans do. and if you're saying that the republican party has sold out its core beliefs, that its ideology is to become the party of trump, i'm just asking you what long—term payback you think there's going to be? and i don't know how to answer that. and i'm being honest and candid and blunt with you. i don't know where the party goes from election day. and i don't know where the democracy goes from election day. and this is a time of deep reflection for me. i got sick at the same time the country got sick. and we are both dealing with it right now. i want to be accurate, i want to be honest, i want to be candid with that which is why i love this programme more than any other in any english—speaking television. and i'm telling you, all that i know right now is that the future of the gop is unclear and undefined. but so is the future of america. and that's what concerns me.

well, frank luntz, we really wish you the very best with your health concerns, and we will be tapping into your insights, i hope, for years to come. thank you very much indeed forjoining me on hardtalk. it's an honour. thank you. hello. it will be a fairly mild start to wednesday across most parts of the british isles for some of you but some will have to wait before you see skies like that particularly in england and wales where you are close by this weather front. won't have an a lot of rain but there will be a fair amount of cloud. that takes a time to pull its way a little way further towards the south

with a skull in northern ireland far north of england drier, brighter perhaps one or two showers coming through and a notice of breeze across the north of scotland. elsewhere you are in for a pretty dry day. eventually we break up the cloud in the south and it rain dies away. while the human still across the south we temperatures mid teens to about 20 degrees. through the evening and overnight willjust drag the last of that cloud away towards the near continent. that sorta time of year the nights are we bit longer the skies are clear the winds are fairly somwhere across the english side of scotland it's going to get down to three or 4 degrees. so a cool start to thursday. thursday is shaping up to be a decent day for many parts. certainly to start with this area of high pressure just nosing in. there is no disguising the fact that a little bit further to the north and west and closing on the northwestern british isle eventually will be enough cloud to rob you of your sunshine in northern ireland. may be a passing shower and certainly more in the way of wet weather into the north and the northwestern parts of scotland.

temperatures notjust as high after that chilly start. as they would've been in the first part of the week. that weather front gradually works its way in across northern parts of the british isles in the first part of friday. and then staggers its way a wee bit further south weakening all the while. before it does that, it will deliver quite a bit of rain into a good part of scotland and northern ireland and eventually across the border. further south it's a dry enough day top about 20, 21. things turn a wee bit more showery and breezy across the northwest scotland to finish out the day. that's the way you start the weekend in that neck of the woods. notice the number of isobars and quite windy. for the northwest and isles and north of scotland. high pressure trying to dominate many areas it doesn't keep the front at bay for the north north and west of scotland. elsewhere try and find weather with some sunshine.

this is bbc news — with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. my name is mike embley. the entire senior police leadership for a city in new york state resigns over the death of a black man in custody. as fears rise of another global spike in covid cases, the uk announces it will ban gatherings of more than six people. one of the leading opposition activists in belarus rips up her passport to avoid being expelled from the country as the president insists he's not stepping down. a senior british politician admits in parliament that government plans to change the brexit agreement would break international law.