will be vll be: rfi‘twlm vll be: ff’fflglit lit vll be rfi‘twlm lit vll ahead will be difficult. it will require a balanced response between implement restrictions and coexisting with covid—19 as we live our lives. where we have had success in preventing widespread community transmission since march, is where the community and public authorities have worked in partnership. every individual's actions matter in controlling transmission. i have said before that the virus does not spread itself. people spread it. so we are in a period where we need to have each other's backs. this is about saving lives, about protecting the most vulnerable, and about looking after granny and grandad. this is about looking after mummy and daddy. even if you are fit and healthy, think about those who are more vulnerable and more likely to become seriously ill, or even lose their life if your actions lead them to contract covid—19. we urge everyone please comply with

these restrictions, keep washing your hands, keep your distance from other people, will wear a face coverings, download the stock covid app. it's also crucial employers and business owners comply with all the regulations and guidance to protect workers and customers. they can only operate if they should do so safely. the decision to focus the restrictions at this point is guided by the scientific advice and evidence. it currently indicates that the majority of cases are being acquired to household interactions or other informal interactions it. studio: that was a news conference, michelle o'neill announcing restrictions, no mixing of households in homes. you're watching bbc news. a second wave of coronavirus. the country's top scientists say failure to act could lead to 50,000

cases a day by the middle of next month. you cannot in an epidemicjust take your own risks. unfortunately, you are taking risks on behalf of everybody else. it's important that we see this as something we have to do collectively. boris johnson will update mps tomorrow, amid mounting expectation he will announce new measures to curb the spread of the virus. local iockdown restrictions in england will be eased to allow people to look after children from outside their household, so parents can go to work new revelations on secret football deals show chelsea owner roman abramovich had stakes in players outside his club in 2014. the ultimate in sportsmanship — the spanish triathlete who stopped at the finish line to let a british rival through after he'd gone the wrong way.

good afternoon to you. the country's top scientists have given an uncompromising message about the uk's second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. at a televised briefing, professor chris whitty and sir patrick vallance said there could be 50,000 new coronavirus cases daily by mid—october, if the infection rate isn't brought down. but they stressed that's not inevitable as long as people follow the rules to stop the spread of the virus. in the past hour, the health secretary has announced that childcare will be exempt from local lockdown rules. he also announced a new £500 payment in england to help support low income workers to self—isolate.

and it's been confirmed the prime minister will address mps tomorrow as the government consider whether further measures are necessary. our first report this hour is from that warning from the government's chief scientific aids. here's richard galpin. six months after the government ordered a full lockdown across the country to try and stem the rapid spread of the virus, it's now clear we are facing a serious second wave. case rising rapidly. this morning, the uk government's chief medical adviser warning it could lead quickly to a large number of deaths, he called on everyone to stick to social distancing rules. the problem with a pandemic or an epidemic infection like this is if i as an individual increase my risk i increase the risk to everyone around me and then everyone who is a contact of theirs. and sooner or later the chain will meet people who are vulnerable are elderly or have a long—term problem from covid—i9.

so you cannot in an epidemicjust take your own risk, unfortunately, you are taking a risk on behalf of everybody else. already the spread of the virus has led to local lockdown is being imposed in several areas of the country including glasgow, newcastle, belfast, manchester, liverpool and birmingham. more restrictions are due to come into force in the north west of england tomorrow. a graph released this morning by the government advisers shows just how quickly the virus can get out of control. this graph which is not a prediction, is simply showing you how quickly this can move if the doubling time stays at seven days and of course, the challenge therefore is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days. there are already things in place which are expected to slow that. and to make sure we do not enter into this exponential growth. the government is clearly trying to avoid a second national lockdown

to prevent further damage to the economy. but there has been speculation there could be a two—week mini lockdown in england to try and slow infection rates. so far, though, no confirmation of this. personally, i'm expecting there to be another lockdown. to keep us safe so i'm all on board, to be honest, totally on board. i don't think people have seen enough evidence to back up the data and i think they've allowed to be built almost return to normal so i think people will continue to do that, unfortunately. it would be better if there were more restrictions, that way we could actually minimise the risk, of course. absolutely, nobody wants to go back to lockdown but having said that, we concluded a meeting in preparation for another lockdown. the government is warning people there could be further measures if people do not stick to social distancing rules. we do need to make sure we are applying all these measures are indeed we are at the tipping point where we need,

we may need to go further and that is something we would like to avoid, but the data is the all—important thing. a national lockdown will be hugely, hugely catastrophic for the economy, for people, we have got to do everything we can, urgently, to avoid a national lockdown. it's been described now as a critical moment for the country. whether infections can't be brought down or will increase, and that depends on how all of us behave. richard galpin, bbc news. 0ur chief political correspondent vicki young is in westminster and we can speak to her now. we heard from the scientist today, tomorrow is the turn of the prime minister to spell out what all this means for our everyday lives. that's right. this was the scientist laying out what the problem is, and it is of course up to the politicians to come up with some answers. we do know some of the things it won't be.

very clearly, borisjohnson has said time and time again he does not want another return to a national lockdown in the way that we had in the spring, but they're not ruling out some kind of national measures. these could be in the form of a very short period of time, a so—called circuit breaker to try and get the virus under control to break that transmission, or it could be some longer—term measures. the hospitality industry particularly, people are looking at that. we know in other areas of england, there have been cu rfews, in other areas of england, there have been curfews, for example on pubs and restaurants. something like that could be on the cards. also, breaking the transmission between different households. the idea that you can meet up with six people in england indoors and outdoors may be that will change, maybe they will try and reduce that back to where we were, but we do not borisjohnson has spoken to the first ministers of the developed nations. there will be atan the developed nations. there will be

at an emergency meeting tomorrow as well as cabinet, and he will outline what the plans he has are in the house of commons. we heard from the health secretary matt hancock, he and also payment for some of those who have to self—isolate the. and also payment for some of those who have to self-isolate the. £500, but also about childcare. this is been a huge problem for lots of people, particularly in the areas where are local restrictions, where you can have where are local restrictions, where you can have more where are local restrictions, where you can have more than one household meeting. beyond that bubble idea we had before, and this has caused huge problems are people looking for childcare as they try to continue work, and this will be really important if the government decides they won't close down businesses, but they will keep schools open for example. they will keep as much of the economy running in a safe way as they can. this is what matt hancock had to say. we're constantly looking oi'i had to say. we're constantly looking on how we can ensure measures, but bear down on the virus is much as possible while protecting both lives

and livelihoods. i've heard the concerns and livelihoods. i've heard the concerns about the impact of local action on childcare arrangements. for many, informal childcare arrangements are a lifeline without which they couldn't do theirjobs. so today, i'm able to announce a new exemption for looking after children under the age of 14 or vulnerable adults where that is necessary for caring purposes. this covers both formal and informal arrangements. it does not allow for playdate or parties, but it does mean that a consistent childcare relationship thatis consistent childcare relationship that is vital for somebody to get to work is allowed. boris johnson is under pressure in all sorts of ways, not just looking at how under pressure in all sorts of ways, notjust looking at how he can prevent a large loss of life, but also the performance of the economy. there are many very concerned about job losses in the impact that has, and the fact of course that a lot of this might have to be in place for a very long time. chris whitty today

talking about how big to do this for at least six months, until a vaccine is discovered. thank you, vicki. there has been another rise in the number of new coronavirus cases in the uk. there were 4,368 new infections recorded, up from 3,899 yesterday. the number of cases has risen sharply to levels seen in early may. our health correspondent lauren moss is with me. i suppose those figures just underline what the scientists were telling us earlier, the graph is just going up and up on a daily basis. exactly. these numbers, 4368, similarto basis. exactly. these numbers, 4368, similar to what we saw on friday. we have to be careful when comparing these, from where we were earlier in these, from where we were earlier in the pandemic. we were testing people in hospital and not as widespread in the community. whether it's an

increase in cases, increase number of testing, sir patrick vallance said this increase that we are seeing is not down to an increase in testing solely. coronavirus is spreading in the community. the r number is above one, which means it is growing. that's why they talked about this today, if cases continue to double, which is thought they are at the moment, this is a worst—case of what could happen. it's not a prediction. he talked about possibly 50,000 cases by mid october. we're not headed that way at the moment. if you look at the graph, you see a very steep increase. it's only india that experiencing more than 50,000 cases per day. that puts them right at the top of the charts which no one needs to be out. the very start warning today by both the top government advisers around what could happen if action is not taken. professor chris whitty use the

words, we've turned a bad corner that we don't want to be at. in order to stop that increase in cases. we've seen action, just announce and northern ireland, no mixing of households in homes. we don't know what we will hear from borisjohnson tomorrow, but he will announce some sort of new measures, given what the scientist layout. that's right. new measures are coming in at midnight. parts of the midlands and west yorkshire as well. borisjohnson has midlands and west yorkshire as well. boris johnson has been midlands and west yorkshire as well. borisjohnson has been meeting with the first minister in the nations, scotla nd the first minister in the nations, scotland was ‘s first minister nicola sturgeon is expected to announce further restrictions later this week. arlene foster has said extra restrictions on social gatherings are to be imposed a cross northern ireland. she's announce there'll be no mixing of to households, except for single person households, except for single person household couples and certain other exemptions. no more than six people from two household meeting in

private gardens. boris johnson from two household meeting in private gardens. borisjohnson is joining a cobra committing meeting, and there could be a —— an update. we don't have any further details, but nobody wants that upward trend to continue, so perhaps there will be more enforcement measures. we will see tomorrow. thank you very much indeed. four more counties in south wales will be placed under a local lockdown, following what the welsh government describe as ‘a worrying and rapid' rise in coronavirus cases. the health minister vaughan gething made the announcement at the daily government briefing. the rise in cases means we have today made the difficult but necessary decision to introduce further restrictions and all of these areas. to protect people's health and to prevent the spread of coronavirus. these measures will be the same as those that are already in place across these areas. they

will come to force from six o'clock on tuesday evening and will apply to eve ryo ne on tuesday evening and will apply to everyone living in the areas. nicola sturgeon has said that additional restrictions will almost certainly be put in place in scotland within days. the first minister was speaking in edinburgh. because of our collective efforts over the because of our collective efforts overthe summer because of our collective efforts over the summer which suppress the virus to very low levels, we are in a much stronger position than we would otherwise be. it's important not to forget that. those efforts meant that many people that might otherwise have succumbed to this virus didn't get it and therefore, we collectively saved a lot of lives. however, with the virus spreading again in scotland across the uk, and europe and accelerating in much of the world, doing nothing in the face of this quite rapid spread is not an option.

fears over further lockdowns have caused shares in hotel, travel and pub companies to plummet. limitations such as table service are already in place, as well as curfews in lockdown areas, but the renewed rise in coronavirus cases means the prospect of more widesperead restrictions are looking increasingly likely. kate nicholls is the chief executive of hospitality trade association, uk hospitality. good to have you with us. we know we will get some announcements from the prime minister tomorrow. how worried are you will will it be a further restriction of the hospitality industry? it is an incredibly anxious time for those in the sector and for the businesses that make up the third largest sector in the uk economy. we are incredibly concerned that we will see further restrictions, either on travel, tourism and socialising, but also more importantly, potentially

national restrictions on the operations of hospitality businesses. with almost a million people still on furlough and hospitality, it's vital we have an extension of government support if there's measures imposed on our businesses in order to protectjobs and livelihoods. and frankly, will quite a lot of businesses simply go under if there are more restrictions? i think that is a very real risk. it will depend on how far the government goes and how extreme the government goes and how extreme the lockdown is. we still have one in five hospitality businesses, but have not been able to open either because they are close by legislation or they don't have the business in part managed a social distance. one in five businesses close, a million people still supported by furlough. there's a very real danger that the lock town... all those jobs and businesses would go. if they look at some lesser restrictions, there will

still be a significant economic hit. if we have the curfews in place in the way they are drafted there, where businesses have to close entirely and empty their buildings by ten o'clock, you will still see 50% of revenues cut from most businesses. that's simply not sustainable in the current marketplace without additional support. is a strange situation. we had to eat out to help out scheme, which was universally praised pretty much. the government was encouraging people to eat out, but it looks like there will now be new restrictions that won't restrict people's ability to go and enjoy social life in places like pubs and restaurants. that's why it's such a bitter disappointment to many within the sector, because we have worked really ha rd over sector, because we have worked really hard over the course of april, may, june to make sure we had the most robust covid secure protocols put in place. we were able

to successfully open and trade at high levels throughout august with eat out to help out without a spike in infections, and now we face the prospect that hospitality businesses will see their trade becoming unviable overnight and having to face significant job losses unviable overnight and having to face significantjob losses when they're not necessarily the source of the infection and the cause of the infection, but we understand that more needs to be done to drive down this disease. but it is a bitter blow to an industry that is clinging on by his fingertips. there isa clinging on by his fingertips. there is a warning that all of this could go on from months. we have to learn to live with this, a lot of people saying. how does the hospitality industry in general learn to live with this virus? i think it's incredibly challenging for us if we're looking at a period of six months. this is why going into tomorrow, there is such anxiety about these jobs that are dependent on furlough. we could face the prospect of this being a two week circuit break, but equally, this could go on for a very long period

of time or it could be that we yo—yo in and out of restrictions. unless we have a long—term strategic plan from the government for the next six months of what support will be made available to the industry, businesses can't make any decisions. they can't plane any investment and it creates a climate of uncertainty and anxiety, which is impacting significantly on our members mental health and teams that work and hospitality. so we do need the government to work with us to map out how we're going to get to the next six months, what business support will be available and to provide some degree of reassurance that businesses will be able to draw down existing support levels. kate, thank you very much. we just heard some news. thank you very much. we just heard some news. thejoint bio—security centre has recommended that the covid—19 alert level for the uk be increased to level four. that means the transmission of the virus is high or rising exponentially. that's

according to the uk's chief medical officer ‘s. also hearing that from laura kuenssberg, our political editor. the covid—19 alert level is rising to level four, and that's in line with what we heard from the government's scientists early on about the rising transmission rate of the coronavirus. the headlines on bbc news... the leaked documents have also revealed how the husband of one of the conservative party's biggest donors was secretly funded by a russian oligarch with close ties to president putin. lubov chernukhin has given 1.7 million pounds to the tories and has paid to meet three successive tory prime ministers. lawyers for mrs chernukhin say her donations to the conservative party have never been tainted by kremlin influence. the conservative party says british russians ‘have the democratic right to donate to a political party'.

we can speak now to catherine belton, author of the book putin's people . if we can just broaden it out a bit, do you think president putin and the kremlin do use the money that oligarchs have to exert political influence, not just oligarchs have to exert political influence, notjust in this country but in western democracies? i'm afraid it's very difficult to tell, but what we do know and what we stated very clearly in the uk parliament ‘s report, big mrs is in russia are very closely intertwined —— big businesses. so if they were to, they can use tycoons to influence mechanisms. they can use them to funnel money into the... and it very clear that putin is trying

to rip store russia standing on the world stage —— restore russia. u nfortu nately, world stage —— restore russia. unfortunately, he's not very good at that, but what he is good at doing is using tactics through arms of the kremlin like russian tycoons to try and influence and undermine political processes in the us. you are talking about the links between putin and some of those oligarchs. the point is that quite a lot of them, they owe their wealth, it is said, to mr putin in particular. yes, ever since putin came to power, he really has been able to establish a great deal of control over the economy, and he did this sort of piece by piece in his first two terms as president, first by taking down russia's richest man and

throwing him injail. it sent a very strong signal to the rest of russia's tycoons, that they had to... orthey russia's tycoons, that they had to... or they could face a similar fate. his influence grew to a degree that by 2008, one formerly very independent russian tycoons told me if you get a call from the kremlin asking to spend 1 billion or 2 billion on this or that strategic project, you can't refuse. you have to comply. just to quote you, what the conservative party have been saying is there's nothing wrong with british russians wanting to give money to any sort of party they choose to. yes. of course that's true, but we also have to understand more about the source of these british russians wealth, in the case, they are saying their

donations were untainted by any sort of russian influence. but it's also the case that many of these tycoons, they continue to have business interests in russia. they kind of went to through a lengthy court proceeding over one of his businesses, a textile factory, so he can be —— tycoons can preserve their existing business interests in russia as russian tycoons, so we have to understand more about the source of their wealth. off former head of a russian state bank, also deputy finance minister, he left russia in 2004 having supposedly fallen out with the kremlin, but he

did continue to have significant business interest there. we have to understand how these people operate. good to talk to you, catherine. let's just tell you again the news we are hearing about the level of transmission of coronavirus in the uk. thejoint transmission of coronavirus in the uk. the joint bio—security centre has recommended that the covid—19 alert level should be raised from level three, which means an epidemic is in general circulation, to level four, which means transmission is high or rising exponentially. the chief medical officers have recommended all four nations of the uk should move to level four, meaning transmission is high or rising exponentially. that's very much in line with what we've been

hearing earlier on from the government's chief scientist, patrick vallance and chris whitty. we could be heading, if the virus is unchecked, to around 50,000 cases a day. by the middle of next month. so the covid alert level rising there, on the recommendation of the chief medical officer ‘s at the bio—security centre from level three to level four. donald trump's move to replace the late supreme courtjustice ruth bader ginsburg with a ‘very brilliant woman' as soon as this friday or saturday, but certainly ahead of the presidential election is an "abuse of power". that's according to his election rivaljoe biden. as the appointment is for life, many fear republicans will try to tilt the court firmly to the right for a generation or more. gary o'donoghue is at

the supreme court in washington. this is an absolutely pivotal moment for the supreme court? it is a pivotal moment for a court that's already tilted to the right, bear in mind. there's already a five — four majority. in favour of conservatives. now it goes to 5—3. if the president gets his way, that would be 6—3, that would building the conservative majority for potentially decades to come. so there's a lot at stake here. this is one of the huge factors of the conservative republican voters. they're kind of giving up on washington, in terms of its legislative programme, whether things can be done through legislation. making sure the courts and the supreme court which often makes huge decisions, but they are in mine, these are decisions that

affect every american's life, whether that be the right to abortion, right to get married, health care issues, these affect every american. these things do come down right to the most local of levels, who ends up being supreme court justice. it levels, who ends up being supreme courtjustice. it will be fascinating to see what happens. gary o'donoghue, many thanks indeed. let's check out the latest weather and that comes from chris fawkes. hello there. most of us can look forward to sunny skies through the rest of the day today, and it's going to continue to feel pretty warm in that sunshine as well. for northern ireland, staying fairly cloudy here, and scotland, well, we have some rain around, particularly into shetland, but a few patches at times in orkney as well. the highest temperatures toward southeast england, 25 degrees or so, but 20 in aberdeen. that's going to feel quite pleasant with some hazy sunshine here. overnight, rain turns heavier across northwest scotland, moves into highland later in the night as well. for england and wales, with light winds, some mist

and fog patches will form. as so some poor visibility to take us into the first part of tuesday morning, and that low cloud, mist and fog will linger around for a time during the morning. the afternoon looking brighter with some sunshine. ahead of this approaching weather front that will eventually bring rain into the northwest, there will be some strong winds for northern ireland and scotland, and also the far north of england as well. highest temperatures towards east anglia, highs of 26, but then it's going to turn cooler for all of us midweek. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: a second wave of coronavirus — the country's top scientists say failure to act could lead to 50,000 cases a day by the middle of next month, as it's recommended that the uk alert level is increased to level four, meaning transmission is ‘high or rising exponentially‘

boris johnson will update mps tomorrow, amid mounting expectation he will announce new measures to curb the spread of the virus. local lockdown restrictions in england will be eased to allow people to look after children from outside their household, so parents can go to work. new revelations on secret football deals show chelsea owner roman abramovich had stakes in players outside his club in 2014. sport and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre. here from the bbc sport centre. is jane dougall. good 5 hello, here is jane dougall. good evening. hello, ben. leyton orient‘s league cup match against tottenham tomorrow night is in doubt after the club announced the stadium and training facilities have had to close after a number of first team players tested postive for coronavirus. the english football league say they are aware and are awaiting the outcome of discussions between public health england and the club.

we understand that if orient are unable to field a team for the third round fixture against tottenham, the game would be awarded to spurs, because scheduling makes it almost impossible to rearrange. in a statement, orient said they had also informed their three most recent opponents in the league. the players who tested postive are self—isolating, but the club has confirmed that the stadium and training facilities will be closed until further notice. meanwhile, manchester city have confirmed that midfielder ilkay gundogan has tested positive for covid—19. the club say he‘ll self—isolate for ten days, in accordance with government guidelines. it means gundogan will miss three matches for manchester city, including tonight‘s premier league game away at wolves. he‘s also likely to be left out of thursdays carabao cup match against bournemouth and sunday‘s game against leicester city. queen‘s park ranger‘s director of football, les ferdinand, says the message behind taking a knee has been lost. the qpr and coventry city players didn‘t take a knee before their game in the championship on friday — the first time it‘s happened in a televised match

since football re—started in june. ferdinand said in a statement that it had ‘reached a point of" good pr‘ but little more than that“. manager mark warburton said he felt it was lip service and wasn‘t going to affect real change. last week against nottingham forest, first game of the season, both players had done it numerous times before and very similar to the client free carriers come at what point do you lose, dilute the power the message? we were not sure what we should do. nothing happened last week. but because it is a televised game now, far week. but because it is a televised game now, far more eyes week. but because it is a televised game now, far more eyes and far more attached to it to it but it it was no lack of respect, it was really what is the directive, are we doing it for the first home and away game, is it the first five games, is now a permanent fixture for every league fixture? there has to some directive otherwise we end up with this. england women start their t20 series against the west indies in derby this evening. it‘s the first time they‘ve played

international cricket since march because of the pandemic. captain heather knight says it‘s been "a long time coming", and is pleased that one of the games will be free to air. the reach the bbc can give is slightly different, so that is hugely exciting and to have that primary site on saturday as well is great and hopefully we can go out and inspire some young girls committed such an important thing to be able to do, that visibility and woman‘s four hasn‘t been as visible this summer because of the pandemic sol this summer because of the pandemic so i think is hugely important that the sport continues to be visible and pliable to see it. —— are able to see it. now we don‘t always see this in competitive sport — sportsmanship. this is british racerjames teagle, who was on course for third place at a triathlon in spain, when he made this mistake near the finish line. a spaniard called diego mentrida overtook him, but noticed the mistake and stopped to allow teagle to cross first —

saying he deserved it. the organisers awarded him honourary third place and the same 300 euros prize money as teagle. i shook his hand straight afterwards, and once i realised that that was the finish line and we had gone over it, and yes, just thanked him, thank you very much. it was an absolutely incredible thing to do. and we were whisked away by the covid security measures, so actually, next i spoke to him was on instagram, and i sent him a couple of messages saying, thank you, that‘s incredible. and then obviously, the world got hold of the video and it has gone viral. very kind. we‘ll have more for you in sportsday at 6.30. many thanks. so the prime minister has been talking to his cabinet over the weekend — considering what measures, beyond the current local lockdowns, might be necessary to halt the rise in infections, and when they

might come into force. he‘s holding a cobra emergency meeting tomorrow morning, and will make a statement in the commons at lunchtime. so what might we expect, i‘m joined by the political correspondent at the guardian, kate proctor and katy balls — deputy political editor at the spectator. katie, you first, we pray for the scientist today and it was pretty grim listening frankly talking about possible daily, 50,000 cases a day by the middle of next month. what do you think boris johnson by the middle of next month. what do you think borisjohnson could announce tomorrow?|j you think borisjohnson could announce tomorrow? i think today what we heard from chris woody and patrick vallance about laying the ground almost from that and that is tomorrow from the prime minister, a pre—justification in some ways for what the government is planning to do. —— chris whitty. i think we still need to see what is eventually

decided by some of the options under consideration include that 10pm cu rfew consideration include that 10pm curfew nationwide, probably apply to licensing so the times that pubs and restau ra nts ca n licensing so the times that pubs and restaurants can be open but also things pacifically on pubs, if a pup only says alcohol into the surf boom they could come under a specific receptions, that is one thing they‘re looking at. we know the prime minister is clean the schools they open and i think there are questions about other things, interesting we heard chris whitty and patrick velits me, talking about socialising in ways you can cut down on that. the idea having friends around you your house can something that can be cut the next two mess because that balance of the economy in the health crisis means that some of the first measures will be those which will be socialising does it benefit the economy in a direct sense of lease. that is the tight rope that the prime minister and the government are walking out the time, the balance with the economy could other virus. how much political

pressure would you say that boris johnson is under from pressure would you say that boris johnson is underfrom his own mps who don‘t want to see further tightening and restrictions?|j who don‘t want to see further tightening and restrictions? i think he sent hera tightening and restrictions? i think he sent her a huge amount of pressure. the health secretary matt hancock has given a statement in the commons this afternoon about some of the things they intend to do. —— i think he is under. he is getting a lot of criticism from backbenches, some of them are saying we need to make sure there is liberty come other people are saying we need to make sure there are some form of social life, that is a condition of being a human, you must be able to socialise. for a lot of conservative backbenches, it is going very ideological for them and going to the heart of the principles that they have. in terms of how society should be, so do are very frustrated soi should be, so do are very frustrated so i also think the number of meetings borisjohnson is having we understand he is speaking to backbenches and speaking to ministers and he is in conversation all the time, and i think it shows

probably what is about to come next, probably what is about to come next, probably going to be quite unpalatable for some members of his party, but he will say that he is doing it to keep the public safe from this terrible virus. unpalatable for some members and unpalatable for some other ministers do you think? we read the cabinet is pretty split about what to do next. yes. i think there is that constant tension, partly dependent on... you would expect the health secretary to be the most focus on the specific demands of nhs. i know the implications were at the chancellor, rishi sunak, he is often said to be making the opposing argument to matt hancock, clearly focused on the i ministers who will be reluctant to do anything drastic and it seems to bea do anything drastic and it seems to be a debate going on all over the weekend and i think one of the problems borisjohnson weekend and i think one of the problems boris johnson is weekend and i think one of the problems borisjohnson is that if you look at the public, not particularly in terms of confidence in the government handing of

coronavirus with the public to often appearfairly coronavirus with the public to often appear fairly supportive of national lockdowns and cu rfews appear fairly supportive of national lockdowns and curfews but his party and his cabinet generally speaking are and his cabinet generally speaking a re left and his cabinet generally speaking are left comfortable with that. and his cabinet generally speaking are left comfortable with thatm is difficult the government not to appeara is difficult the government not to appear a bit stop go, for example had to eat out to help out scheme trying to boost the hospitality sector, potentially now there will be restrictions on the hospitality sector. i do think this handbrake turn is really difficult for people to get their heads around. it is just a few weeks ago that people we re just a few weeks ago that people were being a curse to go out for meals and now suddenly there is so much language about you having personal responsibility and you shouldn't really be socialising and it is all you really to manage the risk to others and i think that is difficult perhaps for the public to ta ke difficult perhaps for the public to take on board, that is set set a shift but when it is so sudden and so quick, despite the fact that borisjohnson said they so quick, despite the fact that boris johnson said they would have this kind of walkable approach to

things, i think it does loosen the credibility of what you're being asked to do. that's a whack a mole. the stop start nature of it, it is difficult. personally i've always assumed that we would have this kind of brief summer period up freedom and then we would go back into a lockdown period but ijust think if at all of the seem to have changed in about two and half weeks is quite ha rd in about two and half weeks is quite hard to take. having said that, i suppose from a pr point of view if nothing else, the government have paved the way for whatever boris johnson does announce tomorrow. we had the two scientific advisers with that live televised news conference and wejust that live televised news conference and we just heard from the officials that the covid—19 alert level is being raised there and they are recommending from three to four, which means that the virus is spreading exponentially. it paves the way for whatever the prime minister will announce. yes. you can see they are laying the groundwork for this. the big game right now. you can see from the think next in

terms of higher punishments and penalties so financial penalties if you don‘t self—isolate and get caught leaving your house after you have made to a country which is not the air bridge, they are trying to get people to obey the law, notjust the guidelines, and i think it is also important they take the public with them. in this mix of carrot stick approach you can see the day—to—day, forecast and all aimed at trying to show why it should be doing this. you had chris whitty saying it is everybody‘s problem. but i think it will be a problem here because people have got used to being able to do various things. i think there will be a big issue in some sort cities and how does the government police that? i don‘t think they have the capacity for some of these things to go around making sure everybody is behaving so they need the public to want to go along with it. great to talk about the you. thank you both so much.

many thanks to both of you. now simon mccoy has been taking at look at what you‘ve been asking about the pandemic, testing and restictions in bbc your questions answered. national measures which could see hospitality sectors should have been looked at by the government. a short period of tighter restrictions lasting a few weeks could be announced as early as this week. schools in most workplaces are likely to be kept open during this time. matt hancock and said the government is prepared to do what it ta kes government is prepared to do what it takes against covid—19. to answer all your questions, we‘rejoined by dr sarah pitt, a virologist from the university of brighton, and dr elisabeta groppelli, a virologist and lecturer in global health at st george‘s university in london. thank you both for joining us once again.

i will go straight to the questions. we have this one from judith, who says, if we had a mild form of covid, would we be infectious generally, or when experiencing this recurrence, would we have immunity? sarah? yes, you would be infectious, and even a mild form of covid, you are still actually shedding virus, which means you could pass that onto other people, and in terms of immunity, actually, the evidence suggests that the milder you experience the infection, the less likely you are to produce a lasting protective immune response, so the answer to the question about immunity is possibly not, although it is not terribly clear—cut. you are less likely to make a good immune response, because part of the symptoms of the more serious disease is related to your immune response to the virus rather than the virus itself.

we have all heard of the term herd immunity, yet we hear from the scientists today that nine out of ten people still have not had this virus? absolutely, yes. in some places, it is actually only 8% or maybe a little bit higher, which means that this is the antibody test that can tell us if people have been exposed to the virus, and that is quite a small minority. 92% of us are still susceptible, and we can obviously get infected and transmit the virus, so it is absolutely important that we tackle the spread and transmission right now. when i use that phrase herd immunity, you reacted, sarah? sarah, it was just saying, when i used the phrase herd immunity, you reacted to it. yes, could i interject? herd immunity is really misunderstood. people are using it in completely the wrong way.

herd immunity is something which is only used in a very specific context, which is by epidemiologists who are deciding what level of vaccine to give to people. it is not relating to... it cannot be applied to natural infection of anything, so whatever it is we are talking about here, it is not herd immunity, and it definitely cannot be achieved by natural infection for anything, but it definitely will not be achieved for this coronavirus, because as we have seen, at the moment, even in hot spots in places like spain where they have actually gone and done antibody testing of people, health care workers and so on, in retrospect where up to maybe about 10% of people who have evidence of antibody, and some of that will be lost anyway over the months. but even in something like measles, we still have to vaccinate against measles, and measles is very infectious, and much more

infectious than covid—19, and you actually do produce long lasting lifelong immunity from measles, and even then, you don‘t do herd immunity from natural infection. so i would really appreciate if people stop using that term, because they are misusing it. i‘m glad we cleared that up, because i saw how you reacted when i used it, so forgive me! let‘s go to another question. no, it is not you! jason barker has asked, i am shielding because i have got covid. my question is, what is happening to the shielders of this country? yes, the guidance has only recently been updated. shielding was advised during the early stages of the pandemic but has not been required right now, however, there is quite a lot of attention about the fact that the situation is quite dynamic.

of course, as we know now, this situation right now is quite critical, so there is the possibility, of course, the shielding advice might change. also, nhs digital has a nice secure list of all the people who have been asked to shield during the peak of the pandemic, so the idea is that, should the guidance change, they will be immediately informed about the increased risk, and of course, the need of shielding. i have this question from someone anonymous, who i suspect has some knowledge about this. how do we ensure that the pcr swab testing is not picking up non—infectious people who still have dead virus rna in their nose or throat from being infected some time ago? perhaps we should start by explaining exactly what the pcr swab is. a very interesting question. pcr stands for preliminary chain reaction. that is the technical name for the test they are doing. they have a swab collected, it goes to a lab, and that is just

the technical name of the test they used to detect the virus. as this questioner says, they are mentioning rna, which is the genetic material of the virus. rna does not tend to hang around for too long in the human body. we tend to have processes which will make it decay, so you are unlikely to have virus or evidence of virus hanging around from infection from a long time ago, but if you are at the very, very end of your fortnightly or three weekly infectious period, it is possible that you might have a low level of virus that the test will pick up but you might not be infectious to other people. however, they get around that by setting the parameters of the test so that if they decide something is positive, one or two copies of the genetic

material or the virus would not be reported as a positive test, so it is the way they set the test up which makes sure that does not happen, or is less likely to happen. but also, the person can rest assured that rna does not hang around for months and months, so that is also kind of unlikely as well, but that‘s what they do. they set up this test in a technical way to account for that possibility. i hope that helps. the test just tells you if you have got it or hasn‘t doesn‘t it? it doesn‘t tell you how strongly or how infectious you might be? well, it can do. we could do that. we don‘t, because at the moment, we are just deciding do you have it or do you not. but the way the testing system works is the same way, it is the same test we used to test whether someone with something like hepatitis b or hiv, whether the drugs they are on are actually working,

and we do look for a thing. some of your viewers might be aware of a term called viral load, which is the amount of virus you actually have. the pcr test can actually look at that, but in the case of covid—19 testing, what we‘re doing at the moment is just, you either have it or you do not. we can set a threshold to make that decision, so if there are a couple of copies it hanging around, we might call that negative. thank you for that. and this one from david johnson. if immunity to coronavirus faded over months, how will this impact the potential success of vaccination? a very interesting question, and yes, a natural infection might generate a short—term immunity, but the vaccines might actually work differently, and also, because they are specifically designed to generate immunity, they tend to take that into consideration. so without going into the details, the vaccine is actually very

different genetically, and also looks a little bit different, and it is often administered with some chemicals that actually can boost an immune response, and also, there are two types of immunity that are actually required against the coronavirus, and it's very important that the vaccines do stimulate both arms of the immune system, so actually, both of them are involved in what is called the memory, so immunity can build up when we come into contact with the virus after vaccination. so different technology, natural immunity, not necessarily long lasting. sometimes, when it comes to virus vaccines, unfortunately, the vaccines are not that good and need to be administered every year, for example, and this is the case for the flu vaccine. it is notjust about the virus being different,

but also needing to boost. so there is good hope, certainly, for all the technologies for the vaccines that are being developed, but only one thing will tell, which is actually time, if we want to know how long something biological lasts. we are going to have to wait. sarah, you were nodding. yes, and i think it is worth bearing in mind it is quite likely, i think, that we may have to have annual boosters or six monthly boosters, at least in the short term while we‘re waiting for the virus to kind of settle down and hopefully go away altogether. just because of the very nature the vaccines themselves and the body‘s immune response to them. let me pick up on that, because the next question from stephen evans asks, will the virus ever die out naturally of its own accord? well, you see, the 2002 sars did, and the reason for that was we had very stringent infection measures which actually stop transmission

of the virus from person to person, and we managed to get rid of it that way. so it is entirely possible that we could stop it passing from person to person, but what that requires is for us to be really strict about our social distancing measures and to stop the transmission spreading around and also, because we know now that some people are infectious but do not have any symptoms, they can spread it to other people, which in sars one was not very common whereas in sars two, it seems to be common. and also, sars one did not spread around the whole world to the same extent that this one has. so it is entirely possible, and i think it is in humanity‘s hands to do that, but whether it is actually logistically possible is another question, i think. but i would like to see us get rid of it altogether. yes, looking at how things

are at the moment, that is just looking like a wish? yes! unfortunately, that seems to be the case. the thing about this novel coronavirus is that it spreads very efficiently, and as sarah has pointed out, it can also spread before or without symptoms, and that makes it very difficult to tackle, and a public health threat. and i would point out that the only two times, actually, that we have managed to make two viruses disappear are smallpox and an animalvirus, which was because we had fantastic vaccines and also a global vaccination campaign which was very, very efficient. so i certainly hope, but right now, it doesn't look like it is the case, so we are bunkered down to the good old measures of keeping distance and washing hands. doctor pitt, this one from ray. can the covid—19 test distinguish between types of flu and covid, and if so, how?

well, i think it is worth bearing in mind that covid—19 is not a type of flu, and in terms of the viruses, they are completely different, so the covid—19 test that we are using at the momentjust tests for covid—19 and nothing else. so, as we said earlier in the programme, it is looking for the genetic material which is like the unique bar code of that virus, and it will only pick that up, so if the person has a flu or another type of respiratory infection, it won‘t come up positive on the covid—19 test as it stands at the moment. as we go forward into the winter, what the hospital laboratory certainly will be doing is, they have a form of the pcr test where you can test for lots of different viruses all at once, and this is standard practice. we have been doing it this way for quite a number of years now, that you have one swab or one throat swab or sample, and you put it in a test tube and you can test for lots and lots of different

respiratory viruses all in one go. and because you are looking for the unique bar code of each virus, it can tell the difference between influenzas, various, influenza a, influenza b, and it can tell another respiratory virus which is particularly common in children, and it would be able to tell the difference between the covid—19 virus. some setups will also distinguish normal common cold coronavirus is as well. so the question can rest assured that we can tell the difference in the laboratory between all these different viruses quite easily now. the technology is there and the science and the expertise is definitely there to do that. hello there. most of us can look forward to sunny skies through the rest of the day today, and it‘s going to continue to feel pretty

warm in that sunshine as well. for northern ireland, staying fairly cloudy here, and scotland, well, we have some rain around, particularly into shetland, but a few patches at times in orkney as well. the highest temperatures toward southeast england, 25 degrees or so, but 20 in aberdeen. that‘s going to feel quite pleasant with some hazy sunshine here. overnight, rain turns heavier across northwest scotland, moves into highland later in the night as well. for england and wales, with light winds, some mist and fog patches will form. as so some poor visibility to take us into the first part of tuesday morning, and that low cloud, mist and fog will linger around for a time during the morning. the afternoon looking brighter with some sunshine. ahead of this approaching weather front that will eventually bring rain into the northwest, there will be some strong winds for northern ireland and scotland, and also the far north of england as well. highest temperatures towards east anglia, highs of 26, but then it‘s going to turn cooler for all of us midweek.

a stark warning from the government‘s chief scientists — the uk is at a critical point in the battle against coronavirus as the government weighs up further restrictions — sir patrick vallance said the "vast majority of the population remain susceptible" to catching the virus and swift action was needed to bring the numbers down. cases are increasing, hospitalisations are following, deaths, unfortunately, will follow that and there is the potential for this to move very fast. the prime minister will make a statement to parliament tomorrow after chairing a meeting of the government‘s emergency committee. the alert level for the virus goes

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