a stark warning from the government's chief scientists — the uk is at a critical point in the battle against coronavirus as the government weighs up further restrictions — sir patrick vallance said the "vast majority of the population remain susceptible" to catching the virus and swift action was needed to bring the numbers down. cases are increasing, hospitalisations are following, deaths, unfortunately, will follow that and there is the potential for this to move very fast. the prime minister will make a statement to parliament tomorrow after chairing a meeting of the government's emergency committee. the alert level for the virus goes

up the alert level for the virus goes up from three to four, but how will ministers propose to slow the spread of the disease? tonight amid warnings the uk is only weeks behind spain in infection rates, we report from madrid, where almost a million people have just been put under strict lockdown conditions for the next fortnight. at the inquiry into the manchester arena bombing families pay tribute to more victims amid praise for the way the city came together in the aftermath. and battling it out for a place on the podium — how a wrong turn for this british triathlete led to a moment of sportmanship from his spanish rival, who slowed down to let him cross the finish line first. coming up on bbc news, leyton orient's league cup match against tottenham is in doubt after they confirmed a number of first—team players have tested positive for covid.

good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six. the message from the government's chief scientists was blunt. if action isn't taken quickly to stop the rapid rise in coronavirus infections, the virus could fast get out of control. sir patrick vallance said there was "no doubt" that the uk was now seeing increasing cases among all age groups. in one scenario — if — and he stressed it was a big if — the current infection rate were to continue there could be around 50,000 new cases a day by mid october and more than 200 deaths a day by november. in the last hour officials have recommended that the covid alert level be raised to level four, that means that transmission is high or rising exponentially. here's our medical editor fergus walsh. the government was makky advisors on a pandemic on the way to deliver a

warning to the nation, that coronavirus, which has been in abeyance for months is very much on the rise and controlling the outbreak involves everyone. this is not someone else outbreak involves everyone. this is not someone else was outbreak involves everyone. this is not someone else was my problem, this is all of our problem. striking the right balance on what restrictions do impose is far from easy. if we do too little the virus will get out of control and we will get significant numbers of increased and indirect deaths and if we go too far the other way we can cause damage to the economy which can feed through to unemployment, poverty and deprivation, all of which have long—term health effects. deprivation, all of which have long-term health effects. it is thought the epidemic is doubling in size in the uk every week. if that was to happen for the next four weeks, we could have nearly 50,000 cases per day, and this wasn't a prediction from government scientists, and it doesn't take into account measures to control covid like the rule of six, which only

came into force of week ago, and it would still be part of the estimated number of cases that we saw in early april —— mac half of the number. government scientists worry that we could be a few weeks behind spain and france, where cases have soared in recent weeks, but in spain and france, covid related deaths have also begun to rise, although much lower level tha n also begun to rise, although much lower level than earlier this year. covid has had a profound impact on the health of many patients who survived the disease, and the message was, unless we do something now, more will suffer. if we look at admissions to hospital in england with a confirmed covid diagnosis, they have been rising for the past

two weeks and now stand at around 200 patients a day. going back to the beginning of april, back then, up the beginning of april, back then, up to 3000 patients were being admitted every day, so we are still admitted every day, so we are still a long way off that figure. it said the resurgence of the virus will be a problem for the next six months and a vaccine will not rescue us this winter. it is possible that some vaccine could be available before the end of the year in small amounts for certain groups, much more likely that we will see vaccines becoming more available over the first half of next year. again, not certain, but pointed in the right direction. the sharp rise in cases has prompted talk of a circuit breaker, a short, sharp period of tightened restrictions such as early closing for pubs and restau ra nts, such as early closing for pubs and restaurants, but would this be enough to stop the serge? sadly i'm not that optimistic that we can suppress the epidemic as much as we would like, and we do need to start

thinking about how we identify and advise and protect the most vulnerable people who are most likely to get severely ill. the challenge now is how to manage the threat of coronavirus throughout the winter, in a way that is sustainable, protecting health and the economy. fergus is here. the alert level is going up. this figure of 50,000 cases a day by next month. compare this to the peak of the pandemic and put it in context. we are ina pandemic and put it in context. we are in a much better place than the end of february, when we were not doing community testing, and there may have been 100,000 cases a day in the community, but 50,000 would be worrying. the difficulty for sir chris whitty and answer patrick balance was that at the moment deaths thankfully are very low, but we know, with this virus, cases, if they double every seven days, we can quickly go from s to very big ones.

backin quickly go from s to very big ones. back in april at one stage, we had nearly 1000 deaths a day, and they are not suggesting anything like that. they are talking about potentially 200 deaths a day, if we we re potentially 200 deaths a day, if we were to have 50,000 cases. the trouble is, what they see also, and there were no ministers alongside them, quite tellingly, today, is this difficult balance they are leaving for ministers to do, between clamping down on the virus and not doing too much, which would allow the virus to run riot. fergus, thank you. so the prime minister will address parliament tomorrow afternoon after chairing cobra, the government's emergency committee. what will his response to this warning from scientists be? 0ur political editor laura kuenssberg is in westminster. the scientists' faces show that it is serious, but it is the politicians who must decide. behind the door these new lines will be drawn. nothing is final. but it could mean that the taps are turned

off again. with the possibility of shorter opening hours, or even short—term closures, and industry holds its breath. i'm very concerned about the rumours, the speculation, that there will be further regulations forced on this industry ata time regulations forced on this industry at a time when we have onlyjust got back to reopening businesses. we need to socialise. people cannot go through another six months without socialising. better to have people socialising. better to have people socialising in a regulated environment. number ten believes they will have to be some kind of extra limits on our lives. the welcome back signs may soon be out of date. tougher enforcement is on the way, regardless, of the precise nature of any new laws, still subject to debate. we are working on what measures may be necessary and the prime minister will update the house tomorrow with any more action that we need to take. this is moment where we want to come together to

tackle this deadly disease. this virus takes lives and leaves many with long—term debilitating conditions. every reasonable action must be taken to save lives and minimise harm, and keep children in school. it is not a question of if there will be some form of new restriction, but a conversation at the top of government about exactly what, where and when. go too far and i could be unnecessary damage to the economy. don't go far enough, and the virus could spread out of control. ministers are adamant that schools and most workplaces will stay open. this is not a return to march, when the whole country was tall, stay—at—home. remember, 10 million people are already living with tighter restrictions across the uk, a patchwork of local areas with stricter rules including parts of wales, northern ireland and scotland, d. implementing further

measures now is very much, i hope, about controlling this virus while avoiding the need for another full—scale lockdown. avoiding the need for another full-scale lockdown. and while there isa full-scale lockdown. and while there is a national concern, in some parts of the country, the return of the virus is still rare, so for the couple behind the bar at this pub in somerset, any new restrictions would simply feel unfair. on the basis that the numbers are fairly low around here, ithink that the numbers are fairly low around here, i think it is frustrating, because initially it was going to be targeted at certain areas where there was a rise in the virus. it will have an impact on the business and to us, personally. because, if we had to close, then that situation, we are in it again, whereby we have to just get by. there is more political resistance to any tightening of the rules, but the disease itself is a deadly foe. decisions made in the next few hours will shape the next few months of all of our lives. there have been tense discussions on government

today and yesterday about exactly what the right approach is to take with this very difficult balance, just as there have been intense discussions here that have been talks with the different governments between westminster, holyrood, cardiff and belfast. it is looking likely that the government. short of slamming the door shut of every pub and restaurant in the country. it is likely instead they will introduce a new closing time of 10pm everywhere, rather than going for more draconian measures at this stage, and for all of the reasons fergus has been outlining, we are not in the same situation as march, we are not looking at this stage at anything like a national lockdown, but that is also partly because the political atmosphere has changed round here. there are certainly more resistance on the government's own backbenchers to the idea of introducing more restrictions, unless they absolutely have no choice about doing so, but there is also an awareness in government that all of our attitudes

have changed, also, and whatever is introduced next, the public‘s attitude and willingness to obey has changed since all this began, six long months ago. laura kuenssberg, thank you. the latest government figures show the daily number of new infections is slightly rising, with 4,368 recorded for the previous 2a hours. that means the average number of new cases per day in the last week was 3,929. there were 11 deaths of people who'd had a positive covid—19 test in the previous 28 days. on average in the last week there were 22 such deaths per day. that takes the total number across the uk to 41,788. the health secretary in england has announced that in areas under local lockdowns, grandparents and others who provide informal childcare for children under 1a will be exempt from coronavirus rules that prevent households from mixing.

matt hancock said he's introducing the changes because of the "concerns" about the impact of local lockdowns on families' childcare arrangements. bolton in greater manchester is one place that's been subject to much tighter lockdown restrictions for the past fortnight with households banned from mixing and bars and restaurants ordered to close by 10pm. it continues to record the highest rate of infection in england though numbers have started to come down. how do people there view the prospect of further restrictions? our special correspondent ed thomas reports. the warning signs are for all to see... to stop a bolton lockdown... ..and hear. don't mix with other households. you'll be fine if you don't. for six weeks, bolton has faced more and more covid restrictions. no household mixing, essential travel only and now, pubs and restaurants are takeaway only. but still, the town has the highest infection rate in the uk.

well, it should be full of life and vibrant and busy. chris and rebecca had big plans for their new business, and that was before covid and before the local ban here on pubs opening. we have no end in sight of when anything's going to change. what's going to happen if this continues? bankruptcy. we come in here, we work hard, and it mightjust all be over. for weeks, they followed the rules. the importance of self—isolation... and today's corona briefing offered little comfort. i don't know if it'll survive for six months. we're the guinea pigs for the nation, i think. i don't think it's worked, and so what potentially is happening is they changed tack on that, but then theyjust left us sailing in the wind with nothing. we heard that frustration again and again. what has it been like here in bolton? desperate.

we're given so much contradictory information. i'm now at the point where i don't know what to think. despite weeks of sacrifice, many here want to know why cases are still high. people are quite scared to go out. would you support even tougher measures? yeah, i think i would, because something needs to be done. how long have you been shielding for? i've been shielding right since the start of lockdown. david is the leader of bolton council. why are cases dropping in a meaningful way despite the restrictions? things do take time, so we are starting to see the early signs of certainly a decrease in the rate of increase in cases. we are hopefully starting to see the beginnings of those signs plateauing. but exactly when will all this end for bolton? half of the shops here are boarded up already. cleaners like angela and nikki fear unintended consequences. we stick to the rules,

we don't go mingling and things like that, but we're being punished. we can't go anywhere. lancaster, northwest parts of yorkshire, those towns that are already struggling with closures already now have even more things closed. public health leaders hope restrictions here will work. they say it's vital to save lives. ed thomas, bbc news, bolton. well, the prime minister has spoken to the devolved leaders of scotland, wales and northern ireland today and made it clear that rising infection rates are a cause for great concern. in a moment, the latest from our scotland editor sarah smith and our ireland correspondent emma vardy, but first, here's our wales correspondent hywel griffith. sophie, wales is relatively slow to come out of lockdown restriction, now new ones are coming thick an fast, four mother area, added to the list. they willjoin the other, 850,000

people placed under tougher measure, what does it mean? people aren't allowed to travel in and out of the local council areas unless they have a valid reason like going to work, people aren't allowed to meet indoors with anyone not from their households and a 11pm curfew, but talk of a bigger south wales wide lockdown. that could be over taken by anything decided at tomorrow's cobra meeting. in scotland nicola sturgeon says she wants to take fast and urgent action so wants to take fast and urgent action so she will make an announcement tomorrow, to in her words try and bring the virus back under control, in scotland. but a it is up to the scottish government to set their own rule, but the first minister does say it makes sense in these circumstances, to try and have broadly similar rules, across the whole of the uk, even if they are not identical in every one of the uk nation, she spoke on the phone to borisjohnson this nation, she spoke on the phone to boris johnson this afternoon, i am told the two are broadly in the same

place when i comes to what they are planning so we could maybe expect similar announcements tomorrow. last week, localised restrictions we re last week, localised restrictions were brought in here in post codes where cases of infections were highest we now those restrictions are being widened to cover the whole of northern ireland. so it means from tomorrow evening people will not be able to visit other people homes, indoors with a few exceptions for things like childcare but it will feel like a significant step back from where we were. now, ministers here at stormont held an extra meeting to make the announcement, and it come against a backdrop of concern over house parties in the student areas of belfast, controversy over a pitch invasion at a g after ae match and police trying to crackdown on those breaking the rules. thank you all. our top story this evening. a stark warning from

the government's chief scientists — we are at a critical point in the battle against coronavirus. and still to come. the act of sportsmanship on the finish line of the sa ntander triathlon. coming up on sportsday on bbc news. play gets under way in england women's first international match in six months. they are up against the west indies in the first of five t20 matches in derby. the inquiry into the manchester arena bombing has been hearing from more families of the 22 people who died in may 2017. the husband of one victim has thanked the people of the city for coming together in the wake of the attack, and "restoring his faith in humanity". tony kiss was paying tribute to his wife michelle. 0ur north of england correspondent judith moritz reports. start making your way towards the city centre, please. in the aftermath of

the manchester arena attack, news cameras captured some of the chaos and horror. but they couldn't tell the whole story — only the hurt and the bereaved can do that. like the family of michelle kiss, whose murder leaves three children without a mother. on that fateful night, michelle was just waiting for our daughter. she wasjust being a mum. michelle died, but somehow my daughter survived. amazingly, so, so thankfully, she was physically unscathed. however, the horrors she must have witnessed in the aftermath of the explosion are fully known only to herself. in the days after the attack, the people of manchester stood together in grief. michelle's husband described the comfort he got from that city—wide support. they demonstrated in the most incredible way that choosing love can be the more powerfulforce. for this, i say thank

you to the wonderful manchester people, for restoring my faith in humanity during the hardest time of my life. through pictures, video, music and anecdotes, little by little we are getting to know each of those who died, through the tributes their families have created. some come to court to speak in person, others to watch, as their words are read out orfilms shown. hi, i'm elaine mciver‘s sister, linda. "do a pen portrait", they said. the mcivers said that pictures would paint a thousand words for them, and opened their family photo album in tribute to elaine. thejones family came the court and also chose to show photos, explaining that 14—year—old nell lit up their days with energy and passion. afterwards, the inquiry chairman spoke directly to them. what comes over most strongly

is the sense of loss that everyone feels at her death. and my overwhelming impression is, what a waste. elaine, michelle and nell were remembered as embracing life. not thought of as victims, but with love, as a sister, a sweetheart and a soulmate. judith moritz, bbc news, manchester. when they made their stark warning this morning, the government's chief scientists used france and spain as comparisons, saying the uk could be heading the same way without urgent action. spain is the hardest hit country in europe after a huge rise in cases. today almost a million people in the capital, madrid, have been placed under a new partial lock down. from there, guy hedgecoe reports. a new lockdown for madrid... ..three months after the last one ended. this time, restrictions are only in certain areas,

particularly lower income districts of the capital, such as here. and for now, at least, the police are informing people, rather than fining them. but the new measures are already having an impact — albeit on people's pockets. this restaurant is just inside one of the zones with restrictions, reducing its clientele. translation: we have to close at 10.00 at night and that's too early for us to serve supper, and for the next two weeks we are going to lose customers at lunchtime, because a lot of our clients are from outside this area. the areas of madrid where these new measures have been introduced were chosen by the local authorities because of their particularly high rates of infection. but many of the local residents in those zones are unhappy at the restrictions, seeing them as discriminatory. if the restrictions are here, it should be all around marbella, not only in poor areas like this one

and other neighbourhoods very close to these. "100 metres away, there are no restrictions," explains this man, "but here there are. "these measures won't work at all," he adds, "we're just going to waste two weeks and eventually the whole of madrid will have to go into lockdown." translation: there are many elements which make the madrid region unique, and that is why it is simple time to have a special plan for madrid. for now, that plan consists of this localised partial lockdown. with hospital admissions starting to climb, the true test for this latest attempt to thwart coronavirus will be whether it manages to ease the pressure on the local health care system. guy hedgecoe, bbc news, madrid. the shadow chancellor, anneliese dodds, has accused the government of mismanaging billions of pounds of public money in its response to the coronavirus pandemic. ms dodds, who was speaking to labour

members at the party's online conference, accused ministers of a "cavalier" approach to public spending during the crisis. as chancellor, i would ensure that public money was always spent wisely. targeted, where it's needed most. not splurged where it isn't. new leadership, with proper oversight of government contracts so they deliver value for money every time. testing every single budget line against the goal of net zero carbon emissions. chelsea owner roman abramovich secretly owned stakes in players at other clubs, an investigation has discovered. one of the footballers played against chelsea in two 2014 champions league games, which meant mr abramovich had a stake in 12 players on the pitch. mr abramovich‘s spokesman says the deals were lawful and did not breach rules or regulations at the time. former chairman of the fa lord triesman says the now banned practice of third party ownership

casts a shadow right across football. richard bilton reports. this is the story of a football match. chelsea against sporting lisbon in 2014. secret files show chelsea owner roman abramovich had a stake in not 11, but 12 players on the pitch. in 2016, a bank identified more than a billion dollars of suspicious payments involving offshore shell companies owned by roman abramovich. this includes four payments made by roman abramovich companies in cyprus. what's important is where mr abramovich‘s cash ends up. leiston holdings, in the british virgin islands, got $156 million, and that is a controversial company. the company was accused of being involved

in the now banned practice of third party ownership. that is when someone other than the player's own club buys a financial stake in them. someone else who may own, if you like, half of you, that doesn't really make sense to me, because that's nothing do with football, and their interests are purely financial. from a moral point of view and from the integrity of the sport point of view, when you sign for a club your integrity and your loyalty should be to that club 100%. this is the winger andre carrillo. he played for lisbon that night, creating a goal. but he was half owned by roman abramovich‘s company. leiston also owns stakes in two other lisbon players. they didn't play against chelsea, but the portuguese club owed roman abramovich‘s company 2.6 million euros. third party ownership was banned by the fa in 2008, but wasn't banned by fifa until 2015. i don't think it can possibly be

properfor the owner of a football club to own players in other football clubs. that is precisely why third party ownership is banned. it casts suspicion and a shadow right across football. 0n the documents i've seen, i would have wanted, as chairman of the fa, to investigate them. mr abramovich‘s spokesman said the suspicious activity reports do not contain allegations of wrongdoing, and no action was taken against the chelsea owner. they also said the deals relate to the period before fifa changed their rules. but no—one knew until now that roman abramovich had a stake in more players than just the ones in blue. richard bilton, bbc news. and you can get more on this story in panorama, "banking secrets of the rich and powerful" on bbc one at 7pm tonight. it's being hailed as a heart warming

act of sportsmanship. a british triathlete was moments away from a place on the podium at a race in spain — but metres from the finish line — on the final turn — he misread the signs and went the wrong way. his rival — just behind him — spotted his error— and his reaction surprised many asjoe wilson explains. it's remarkable where a wrong turn can take you. james teagle's mistake gave third place to diego mentrida. but watch. he didn't take it. the spaniard stopped, waited. he believed teagle deserved third, and thus the santander triathlon went global. as a person, itjust shows massive integrity and great sportsmanship. i think people have really taken it to heart. it's gone all over the world, and it's incredible, just to see that, and people valuing that sportsmanship. we've seen fraternity in the triathlon before. here's alistair brownlee making sure his brotherjohnny finished — ahead of him. goodness me! what an incredible conclusion here.

david wyeth and matthew rees were strangers on a street when rees told wyeth he could finish the london marathon, and made sure he did. olympic games, 2016, new zealand's nikki hamblin. american abbey d'agostino fell, and then devoted the rest of their race to helping each other. suddenly no longer opponents. it requires moments like these to prove that sport retains humanity. what happened in santander was a little thing, but in these days, let's be honest, it goes a very long way. joe wilson, bbc news. time for a look at the weather — here's chris fawkes. i think it is fair to say we will be feeling the distant effects of a hurricane, but not as you might imagine. and the hurricane in question is a long way from our shores, here it is, hurricane teddy. you probably haven't heard much because it has not been causing too many problems but it will bring rain