the world with shock, and in some cases disbelief. withjoe biden ahead in the polls donald trump needed to do something to change the narrative. was this a hoax? well, once the facts were established the narrative certainly changed. first of course how will mr trump, now in hospital, respond to the virus, how might that change his perception of the risks, of mask wearing, how will the american public react and what does this all to do the campaign and the election itself. one leader who knows what its like to be a victim of the pandemic whilst trying to govern your country is borisjohnson. this weekend as the final brexit deadline draws closer the uk prime minister is in talks with the head of the european commission ursula von der leyen.there are hopes of a deal — but how much each side trusts the other will no doubt be key. finally, a grim milestone this week — 1 million people have been confirmed to have died from covid globally with many more undiagnosed and not counted.

as the northern hemisphere heads into winter — how bleak is it looking and is there any grounds for optimism in the numbers? with me are henry chu of the los angeles times, and thomas kielinger of die welt. and here in the studio hugh pym our health editor. thanks to all of you for your time today. i am just going to kick off with a story that has obviously galvanised global news cycles in the last 2a out ways and president trump, of course, isn't the first us president to suffer ill—health while in office. woodrow wilson, kennedy, reagan all had documented troubles. but covid and how it effects us is still highly unpredictable. and we are just a month from the election on november 3rd. if they can begin with you. how vulnerable is donald trump? well, president trump is in the most vulnerable category or approaching

the most vulnerable category. anyone over 65 is more at risk if they get covid—19, of becoming seriously ill. and the chances of death increase quite substantially as you get older beyond that. he is 7a. the death rate for 75—year—olds are and over is one in 25, with covid—19. that still leaves a lot of people who get coronavirus, who go into hospital, who do pulled through and we should emphasise that. the president also has a emphasise that. the president also hasa bmi, emphasise that. the president also has a bmi, body mass index, patients who are overweight and obese are more vulnerable and also men are more vulnerable and also men are more vulnerable and also men are more vulnerable than women. so he is very much in a vulnerable category. but we should keep stressing that going into hospital does not in any way mean that he has not got a good chance of recovering quickly. henry, give mea chance of recovering quickly. henry, give me a sense of what you are seeing and hearing from the us. there has been a lot of different responses. they are politically governed, to a degree, but this has

been a real shock, hasn't it? it has. it is the october surprise that people often talk about when it comes to american presidential elections. i think you have a mix of reactions, of course. those who are reacting with compassion and sympathy often on the republican side of the aisle and those who are feeling this is some kind of karma or poeticjustice for a president who has downplayed this pandemic from the start. in fact, on thursday night, just a few hours before he diagnosis, he was seen in a pre—recorded video at a charity dinner, saying that the end of the pandemic was in sight. sol dinner, saying that the end of the pandemic was in sight. so i think, for him, the danger is that his falling ill like this has completely undermined that message that he has been hammering over the past several months. the claims that the us has turned a corner, that this is all going to be behind us soon and his administration has done a remarkable job of protecting americans, that we had the highest number highest numberof had the highest number highest number of infections in the world.

thomas, international leaders including angela merkel yesterday sent their good wishes to the president. what is your perception? how was the reaction been across germany and europe to this? how was the reaction been across germany and europe to thi57m how was the reaction been across germany and europe to this? it has certainly been a big shock in germany as well because it has added another and ponder rubble, another uncertainty of the state of the world we a re uncertainty of the state of the world we are in at the moment where nothing can be predicted any more. now, this event now upends the american election and throws it totally open and you can't, as a politician, angela merkel or anybody else, you cannot really adjust to the situation because it is an ongoing story. an ongoing narrative. you are shooting at moving targets from a moving platform. where can you call it a halt? we are hoping, of course, that the president will not deteriorate in his health and something of normality or normal

election campaign can be resumed. but on balance, as you look at all the facts, this is probably unlikely. we have a situation where, maybe the deputies, the two vice presidential candidates will come to the fore more and shape the political narrative. but other than that, everything is up in the air, everything is unknowable. henry. yes, i actually would slightly descend from that in the sense that i think that definitely in the immediate term this has thrown the campaigns fora immediate term this has thrown the campaigns for a loop. the second debate between biden and trump now looks in doubt. that is scheduled for less than two weeks' time. and the immediate campaign events that trump was scheduled to go to, be rallies from which he derives a lot of sustenance because of the energy, because of all of the cheering, that is going to be put on hold for a while. but if we look at the overall campaign and take a more bird's eye view, it is, i think, campaign and take a more bird's eye view, it is, ithink, an

campaign and take a more bird's eye view, it is, i think, an open question right now that this will make much difference in the overall outcome and i say that because if you look at polls, for example, that compared january and september in terms of the standing of the two candidates, it is remarkable how sta ble candidates, it is remarkable how stable the voters' views of, particularly trump, has been. he is the only president in modern polling history never to have cleared 50% in history never to have cleared 50% in his approval rating yet. at the same time. his base of about 40% has remained remarkably strong and absolutely behind him. and if you even go further back than that, i think to 2017, in a theoretical matchup between biden and trump believe that biden has now is the same that was in that poll three yea rs same that was in that poll three years ago. so be reason is that we have an incumbent president going for re—election and in these situations, almost always, it is a referendum on that president. and this is a president who, about whom

most voters have already made up their minds. so, but a catastrophic turn of events in terms of his medical condition, it still remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have on the election outcome. thomas. what i'm going to add to it, though, which makes me more uncertain about the whole story, is that the voters, as it were, opinion of the leading figures can change to a degree of how they i'iow can change to a degree of how they now behave. biden, for example, has done something remarkably sensible, like calling off all partisan ship. partisan electioneering. this is a very good step for him in terms of the presidential debate using horrible lines like shut up, man, to the president. which i thought was absolutely a statement to fire down the denigration scale. america has only one office which matters. the president is both the monarch and the political leader and there is an aura about this office, whatever you

think about the holder of the office. and biden certainly could not care less about trump the man, but you cannot denigrate the mystique of the office and there is an aura which you have to respect. so he is doing better now. he adds to his likeability, shall i say, biden. whereas trump will simply be quiet for some time to come so the psychological mix of the standing of between the two candidates may change in the eye of the voters. let me bring in hue here. beauty went through this incredible emotional roller—coaster, i think it is not unfairto roller—coaster, i think it is not unfair to say, as we watched our prime minister at the start of the pandemic, initially getting it and looking ok, broadcasting from downing street on recorded zooms and then having to be rushed to hospital at the acu. there has been a lot of comment about whether that has had an impact on borisjohnson personally in terms of his political outlook, his willingness to take risks. we could see a personal

impact on president trump as well, couldn't we? depending on how this affects there were criticisms of borisjohnson early on for not chairing key meetings of the cobra committee, the emergency committee that was handling the early stages of the pandemic and appearing to be a bit standoffish. that was strongly denied by downing street but having had his extraordinary experience when he was very seriously ill and in intensive care, there is a feeling he came out with a different appreciation of the risks of covid—19. and in an absolute determination to ensure it did not get out of control again and restrictive measures were taken. whether it changes donald trump is my perspective we will have to wait and see. there is a bit of a difference. borisjohnson was that in his flat in downing street for a week. there were not these treatments that the president has 110w treatments that the president has now been given. less was known about kevin 19. eventually went to hospital on a sunday night and in intensive care 2a hours later so he was much thicker than the president

when he got there, the president have gone there as a precautionary measure, we are told. obviously, these things can change very, very fast. there is so much comment about legitimacy in terms of how the campaign now runs. we are due to cb vice president debate this week. donald trump is taken out of action on the campaign fund will there be pressure onjoe on the campaign fund will there be pressure on joe biden on the campaign fund will there be pressure onjoe biden to pull back, too? and how ultimately will any decision be made about the worst possible outcome of having to delay the election, for example? possible outcome of having to delay the election, for example ?|j possible outcome of having to delay the election, for example? i think thomas is right in saying that biden has tried to write about this in a partisan point of view. everyone's thoughts and prayers are with the president, he said. he does not wish in any kind of personal ill that way but it is not going to, i think, rein in his campaigning in any way. he still has his events that are on his schedule. he is still going to appear at his schedule. he is still going to appearat campaign his schedule. he is still going to appear at campaign stops. that is not holding at all. super packs are the lobby groups behind him are still proceeding with their

activities, as are the trump campaigns. i mean, he as the president may not be at these events but those who are his proxies and the organisations that are trying to get him re—elected are still going full steam ahead. but in terms of actually postponing the election, you know, trump himself bandied around that possibility a couple of months agojust say around that possibility a couple of months ago just say that the pandemic asa months ago just say that the pandemic as a whole, not because he was suffering from it, warranted a delay. and even members of his own party poured cold water on that idea. there is no easy mechanism for that to happen. the constitution sets the fact that congress is in charge of when the election takes place and that is now set by law. so you would have to have some kind of extraordinary legislative action for that to happen sol extraordinary legislative action for that to happen so i do not see any kind of delay to the election taking place. now, what might happen is that, if tom should lose, he certainly has an excuse to say,

well, it is because i got sick. i was 011 well, it is because i got sick. i was on the comeback trail or i was doing very well and nfl ill. but i think the election was to go ahead as we expect it to. of course, these claims of legitimacy, as we have been hearing coming from the trump tea m been hearing coming from the trump team already before all this. do you think, again, it is very unlikely that the election will be delayed? what if, god forbid, present trump becomes incapacitated ? constitutionally this cannot happen and there is a major step congress to change the law but the law demands the election is set now. that is not going to change. the question is, of course, if trump deteriorates, severely, in his health, then it is not so much a question of the delay of the election but you will have to push forward , election but you will have to push forward, as i said before, the two deputies. the two vice presidents to be on both sides to play a greater role. for one thing, if the president is incapacitated, the vice

president is incapacitated, the vice president will have to take over. there is a regency model like you have bitten by the monarch is incapacitated by ill— health, have bitten by the monarch is incapacitated by ill—health, george iii once was in the early 19th century, then the next in line would ta ke century, then the next in line would take over as regent. and sol century, then the next in line would take over as regent. and so i can envisage a situation where, for some time, before the election, even, thatis time, before the election, even, that is to say if the health situation deteriorated for president trump, mike pence might come forward and take hold of the reins of government for the time being. we will have to see how long that will la st will have to see how long that will last but i think he will be called upon to be, as it were, the regent, to carry on the business of government. i imagine there will be great reluctance from the white house, from donald trump does make team, for that to happen. henry, can i ask ahead of this vp debate this week, how do both these figures poll publicly across the us? well, the

vice presidency in general is not particularly considered an important post. the debate is often a sideshow except, interestingly, when biden had his vice presidential debate in the second election for obama there was widespread belief that biden's performance actually helped pull obama out of a funk that obama himself had not done very well in his first presidential debate and as vice presidential candidate he was able to help revive the campaign. here, harris is a very experienced debater. she is a such sharp questioner in the senate and mike pence knows from the senate. there will be fireworks that we will see and people will pay attention to that. i do not know that anyone will be looking at that debate thinking of mike pence necessarily as the president in waiting because the constitutional mechanisms don't actually, when it comes to a candidate, immediately say that he

becomes the candidate should president trump die before the election. so people will be watching it with interest but still, the main event is between biden and trump. 0k. event is between biden and trump. ok. we will leave that therefore now because, obviously, it is very much in flux and regardless of politics i think everyone does wish the president and his wife good health as fast as possible. it almost went unnoticed this week, but the eu moved to sue the uk as it breached the internal markets bill, overriding the withdrawal treaty. this weekend borisjohnson is having a virtual meeting — talking online — to ursula van der leyen as the final brexit clock at the end of the year draws closer. thomas, how would you describe relations between these two leaders as far as we know? well, relations are really coming to a crunch, as it were. they having to improve, between the two of them, they had to find the mode of talking and solving

the conundrum that we have found in the conundrum that we have found in the negotiations. and the fact that they are going to talk, and this is going to be an essential sort of meeting, albeit virtual, it means that there is hope in the air because, as you look at the outstanding issues, it isjust about a level playing field, government aid, and it is fisheries. fisheries, in terms of gdp, a very small matter indeed both in the economy of great britain and the economy of the eu but with one exception. there is present macro of france who is the elephant in the room who is looking at as we election in 2022 and he does not want to stand before his people and he sold out the fishery rights of french fishermen so there has to be a compromise. that is the

keyissue has to be a compromise. that is the key issue here that they have to sell. britain is proposing a sort of zonal attachment by which you have a transition period of three years in which bedside can get used to the new quota of fish that they are allowed to fish in europe. but i do not think the fishing issue is going to be the one that will wreck four years of negotiations. bedside cannot afford to fail in this dialogue. think of coronavirus. the damage it does to the economies both oi'i damage it does to the economies both on the continent and both in britain. you do not want to shoulder another crises like the brexit no deal to add to the huge economic problems that both sides feel. i mean, the european union are calling a european union of covid. we are

struggling to reach a government responsibility. we are hugely in debt all over and so is britain. and i think, for reason, the covid issue is going to drive us towards a solution and a deal before the end of the year. that is my prediction. much was made of the us uk trade deal. boris and president trump seem to have relations but ifjoe biden comes and that could also change the whole dynamic between the us and uk governments. that is right. i think that the us uk trade deal is actually on hold at the moment. it is not at the forefront of their minds of leaders and government at the moment, obviously. it is the election and it will depend on who emerges victorious from that election. trump has promised a uk deal but there had been some reservations on behalf of his administration and he will also be looking still to see the kind of economic deals that he can cut in other parts of the world. sol economic deals that he can cut in

other parts of the world. so i would not imagine that the trade deal with the british is going to be top of the british is going to be top of the priority list of either the biden administration or trump mark two. can ijust quickly coming on this because this applies to all governments. all departments, civil serva nts governments. all departments, civil servants by the scenes, have been drawn into covid from other departments. is it likely that i'm a brexit and other matters will be squeeze? i think so. this domestic crisis for the uk, covid—19, is the biggest that has been seen in generations for any government. then you have got the issue of brexit as well and the exact terms of departure with all the problems we have just been hearing about. whitehall, the centre of the civil service and advisors for british government, they are pretty exhausted, there, with the huge challenge of covid—19, having to deal with all these restrictions on peoples' everyday lives. get that right and look at the spread of the virus, and how the nhs copes, plus these talks on brexit. they to huge

challenges and i think the whole government machine is extremely stretched. government machine is extremely stretched. one million deaths were recorded around the world this week from covid with countless more not diagnosed. there are of course fears of a recession this winter too and balancing health and financial risks has been the core tension for governments around the world. here boris johnson is criticised from both sides — those wanting more or fewer restrictions — and for failing to steer a clear path but is that fundamentally unfair given constantly changing evidence and the understandable human dilemma at the heart of all these decisions?(hugh — the numbers in the uk and around the world? we have seen this 1 million we have seen this1 million number, which did feel like a bit of a landmark, didn't it? and of course i'm told more that we do not count. yes. i mean, first double you have got to be a way of measuring deaths. the official count each day from the

british government is deaths within 28 days. of somebody contracting covid—19 does not cover those who picked it up earlier or a certain number of deaths in the community so there is that issue. what we don't know if the full extent of people who have got seriously ill and had not survived because they did not get medical treatment because the national health service were so focused, understandably, and covid—19 back in march, april, may, and clearing hospitals to allow space for covid—19 patients. are those who were just worried about going in for treatment. therefore they missed out on crucial diagnostics and scans and so on. and isa diagnostics and scans and so on. and is a growing view that you could almost get to a point of having as many deaths from people who did not have covid—19 but other causes which we re excess have covid—19 but other causes which were excess to what you normally get. excess deaths is what we want to see in terms of the data and that would take a little time to actually be fully apprised. henry, president trump is my position has of course put covid right back front and centre if it had ever gone away.

200,000 deaths and many more affected in the us. absolutely and alsojust looking affected in the us. absolutely and also just looking around the world, one remarkable figure that stuck out to me this past week or two is about that india which is now number two in terms of the total number of infections, it went from 3 million and 22 6 million in barely a month. that is a remarkable figure. some of thatis that is a remarkable figure. some of that is due to greater testing. but just the fact that you could have that kind of a jump in so short a time shows us that this coronavirus is not going away anytime soon and we are indeed, the northern hemisphere, moving into wintry season and so there has been talk of what they call it it wind. you've got the coronavirus but also the usual flu season coming around. what is interesting is that some of the data coming out from southern hemisphere countries that have already gone through a winter with the coronavirus and the fluid is actually shown that, in places like south africa and australia, flue incidents has actually been quite low and that is because, they are

theorising, the same kind of preventative measures you would take against the coronavirus, wearing masks, keeping socially distance, are of course effective against the flu as well. and so as much as the people can actually stick to these guidelines, that can also keep the blue infections down. but we are still in a very tricky period with coronavirus. we have not turned a corner. the end is not inside the way that trump has said. i would say that one bright spot does seem to be the possibility, in coming months, ofa the possibility, in coming months, of a vaccine of some sort. it's effectiveness, we want to know for some time to come but there might be glimmers of hope at least in our future. whether the numbers are giving us any glimmer of hope here is the question that some have been looking at. whether there is a slight fall in the rate of growth certainly in the uk this week. just to add to what henryjust said, we are all discussing the perilous

situation the world is in in view of this illness it is doubly important that we not allow our economies to deteriorate any more than they already have. the economy of the world, the world economy is in dire straits and if we allow our divisions and political feelings like brexit to make it more difficult for business to act and to operate in europe, in this case, britain and the eu, i think nobody would forgive the leaders and in this case would forgive boris johnson and the european leaders in brussels, to have not seized the moment and come to an agreement. we need to focus on the economic well— being of the need to focus on the economic well—being of the world. need to focus on the economic well— being of the world. lots of people are going to be threatened by unemployment. there is going to be misery spread all over the place unless we really move forward where we can and brexit, i think, we can do that. but it must be done. we

cannot afford to allow more sense to make the economic businesses of the world and our country is more difficult than it already is. we we re difficult than it already is. we were there. this very dramatic point, it feels, and all other countries positions and their futures. thank you very much. thank you very much. thanks to all my guests. that's it for dateline london for this week — i'm back at the same time next week. bye for now. hello there. we have got a lot of rain to come this weekend across a good part of the uk. rain that is likely to lead to some localised flooding.

some transport disruption and the rain accompanied by strong winds for some of us as well. now, take a look at the satellite picture. this is storm alex, that brought strong winds to france and severe flooding actually across south—east france. we are getting rain clouds now moving in from europe and you can see the rain has been gathering really across england and wales and scotland over recent hours. a few showers for northern ireland, but it is of course the far west of the uk that we have the best chance of at least keeping some dry weather. we have got met office amber weather warnings, though, for wales, the west midlands, south—west england and also across eastern areas of scotland. it is these areas that could see about 120 millimetres of rain up over the higher ground and that really is cause for concern. it is an awful lot of rain. the problem with this rain band is once it has moved in it really isn't going to move very far very fast, with the rain persistent in scotland, england and wales. northern ireland brighter skies for much of the day, maybe an odd isolated shower. temperatures with the cloud and rain about 12—14 , but as the rain shifts away from the south—east we could see some brighter weather here and temperatures maybe around 15 or 16 degrees, but for most of us it is

cool, wet and increasingly really windy as well. overnight, we have got more rain to come, the rain turns heavier across eastern scotland, with easterly wind strengthening are really shoving the rain into the mountains around the grampians and aberdeenshire, we could see some flooding impacts overnight as the rain slowly pushes its way across into northern ireland. here sunday's weather forecast. you can see we have got more rain around as well. in the centre of the low pressure we have got sunshine and a few heavy showers, so not exactly dry, but around the area of low pressure we have still got our band of rain and increasingly strong gales of wind into sunday. let's take a look at the forecast for monday now, and the same area of low pressure still on the charts. in fact it is going to be loitering across the british isles as we head through monday, tuesday and even into wednesday as well, so it stays unsettled. monday sees further outbreaks of rain. yes, there will be some sunshine in between these bands of rain, but it stays on the cool side and of course any extra rain could just exacerbate any flooding that we do have that develops through the course of the weekend. so heavy rain this weekend.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. president donald trump is taken to hospital less than 2a hours after testing positive for coronavirus — he shared a video message before being admitted. i'm going to walter reed hospital. i think i'm doing very well, but we are going to make sure that things work out. the first lady is doing very well. so, thank you very much. i appreciate it. i will never forget it. thank you. more aides to the president test positive, including longtime adviser kellyanne conway and his campaign manager, bill stepien. the president has received a number of treatments to slow the progress of the virus — including one not yet approved by regulators. today's other news — in the uk, liverpool, warrington,