virtual london marathon. now on bbc news, it's dateline london. welcome to dateline london. 2020 will surely go down in the history books as one of the most dramatic any of us have lived through. the news of president trump's covid diagnosis was greeted around the world with shock, and in some cases disbelief. withjoe biden ahead in the polls donald trump needed to do something to change the narrative in the 2020 election. someone on twitter initially asked, "was this diagnosis a hoax?" well, once the facts were established the narrative

certainly changed. first of course how will mr trump, now in hospital, respond in health terms to the virus, how might that change his perception of the risks, of mask wearing, how will the american public react and what does this all to do the campaign and the election itself? one leader, who knows what it's like to be a victim of a pandemic whilst trying to govern your country is borisjohnson. this weekend, as the final brexit deadline draws closer, the uk prime minister is in talks with the head of the european commission, ursula von der leyen. there are hopes of a deal — but how much each side trusts the other will no doubt be key. finally, a grim milestone this week — 1 million people have been confirmed to have died from covid globally with many more undiagnosed and not counted. as the northern hemisphere heads into winter, how bleak is it looking and is there any grounds for optimism in the numbers? with me are henry chu of the los angeles times, and thomas kielinger of die welt.

and here in the studio, hugh pym, our health editor. thanks to all of you for your time today. i am just going to kick off with a story that has obviously galvanised global news cycles in the last 2a hours and president trump, of course, isn't the first us president to suffer ill—health while in office. woodrow wilson, kennedy, reagan all had documented troubles. but covid and how it affects us is still highly unpredictable. and we are just a month from the election on november 3rd. if i can begin with you. how vulnerable is donald trump? well, president trump is in the most vulnerable category, or approaching the most vulnerable category. anyone over 65 is more at risk, if they get covid—19, of becoming seriously ill. and the chances of death increase quite substantially as you get older beyond that. he is 7a. the death rate for 75—year—olds are and over

is one in 25, with covid—19. that still leaves a lot of people who get coronavirus, who go into hospital, who do pull through — we should emphasise that. the president also has a bmi, body mass index. patients who are overweight and obese are more vulnerable and also men are more vulnerable than women. so he is very much in a vulnerable category. but we should keep stressing that going into hospital does not in any way mean that he has not got a good chance of recovering quickly. henry, give me a sense of what you are seeing and hearing from the us. there has been a lot of different responses. they are politically governed, to a degree, but this has been a real shock, hasn't it? it has. it is the october surprise that people often talk about when it comes to american presidential elections. i think you have a mix of reactions, of course. those who are reacting with compassion and sympathy, often on the republican side of the aisle, and those who are

feeling this is some kind of karma or poeticjustice for a president who has downplayed this pandemic from the start. in fact, on thursday night, just a few hours before he announced his diagnosis, he was seen in a pre—recorded video at a charity dinner, saying that the end of the pandemic was in sight. so i think, for him, the danger is that his falling ill like this has completely undermined that message that he has been hammering over the past several months. the claims that the us has turned the corner, that this is all going to be behind us soon and his administration has done a remarkable job of protecting americans, that we have the highest number of deaths and the highest number of infections in the world. thomas, international leaders including angela merkel yesterday sent their good wishes to the president. what is your perception? how has the reaction been across germany and europe to this? it has certainly been a big shock in

germany as well because it has added another imponderable, another uncertainty of the state of the world we are in at the moment, where nothing can be predicted any more. now, this event now upends the american election and throws it totally open and you can't, as a politician, angela merkel or anybody else, you cannot really adjust to the situation because it is an ongoing story. an ongoing narrative. you are shooting at moving targets from a moving platform. where can you call it a halt? we are hoping, of course, that the president will not deteriorate in his health and something of normality or normal election campaign can be resumed. but on balance, as you look at all the factors, this is probably unlikely. we will have a situation where maybe the deputies, the two vice presidential candidates will come to the fore more and shape the political narrative.

but other than that, everything is up in the air, everything is unknowable. henry. yes, i actually would slightly dissent from that in the sense that. i think that definitely in the immediate term this has thrown the campaigns for a loop. the second debate between biden and trump now looks in doubt. that is scheduled for less than two weeks' time. and the immediate campaign events that trump was scheduled to go to, the rallies from which he derives a lot of sustenance because of the energy, because of all of the cheering, that is going to be put on hold for a while. but if we look at the overall campaign and take a more bird's eye view, it is, i think, an open question right now whether this will make much difference in the overall outcome and i say that because if you look at polls, for example, that compare january and september in terms of the standing of the two candidates, it is remarkable how stable the voters' views of, particularly trump, have been. he is the only president in modern

polling history never to have cleared 50% in his approval rating yet, at the same time, his base of about 40% has remained remarkably strong and absolutely behind him. and if you even go further back than that, i think to 2017, in a theoretical matchup between biden and trump, the belief that biden has now is the same that was in that poll three years ago. so the reason is that we have an incumbent president going for re—election and in these situations, almost always, it is a referendum on that president. and this is a president who, about whom most voters have already made up their minds. so, bar a catastrophic turn of events in terms of his medical condition, it still remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have on the election outcome. 0k, thomas. what i'm going to add to it, though, which makes me more uncertain about the whole

story, is that the voters, as it were, opinion of the leading figures can change to a degree of how they now behave. biden, for example, has done something remarkably sensible, like calling off all partisanship, partisan electioneering. this is a very good step for him in terms of the presidential debate, using horrible line, like, "shut up, man," to the president. —— who in the presidential debate. which i thought was absolutely a statement too far down the denigration scale. america has only one office which matters. the president is both the monarch and the political leader and there is an aura about this office, whatever you think about the holder of the office. and biden certainly could not care less about trump the man, but you cannot denigrate the mystique of the office and there is an aura which you have to respect.

so he is doing better now. he adds to his likeability, shall i say, biden. whereas trump will simply be quiet for some time to come, so the psychological mix of the standing off between the two candidates may change in the eye of the voters. let me bring in hugh pym. the uk went through this incredible emotional roller—coaster, i think it is not unfair to say, as we watched our prime minister at the start of the pandemic, initially getting it and looking 0k, broadcasting from downing street on recorded zooms and then having to be rushed to hospital at the acu. —— and icu. there has been a lot of comment about whether that has had an impact on borisjohnson personally in terms of his political outlook, his willingness to take risks. we could see a personal impact on president trump as well, couldn't we? depending on how this affects him. yes, there were criticisms of borisjohnson early on for not chairing key meetings of the cobra committee, the emergency committee that was handling the early stages

of the pandemic and appearing to be a bit standoffish. that was strongly denied by downing street but having had his extraordinary experience when he was very seriously ill and in intensive care, there is a feeling he came out with a different appreciation of the risks of covid—i9, and an absolute determination to ensure it did not get out of control again and that restrictive measures were taken. whether it changes donald trump's perspective, we will have to wait and see. there is obviously a bit of a difference. borisjohnson was left in his flat in downing street for a week. there were not these treatments that the president has now been given. less was known about covid—i9. he eventually went to hospital on a sunday night and was in intensive care 2a hours later, so he was much sicker than the president when he got there, the president having gone there as a precautionary measure, we are told. obviously, these things can change very, very fast. there is so much comment about legitimacy in terms of how the campaign now runs. we are due to see the vice president debate this week. if donald trump is taken out of action on the campaign

front, will there be pressure onjoe biden to pull back, too? and how ultimately will any decision be made about the worst possible outcome of having to delay the election, for example? i think thomas is right in saying that biden has tried to rise above this from a partisan point of view. everyone's thoughts and prayers are with the president, he said. he does not wish him any kind of personal ill that way. but it is not going to, i think, rein in his campaigning in any way. he still has his events that are on his schedule. he is still going to appear at campaign stops. that is not halting at all. nor are the super packs, where the lobby groups behind him are still proceeding with their activities, as are the trump campaigns. i mean, he, as the president, may not be at these events but those who are his proxies and the organisations that are trying to get him re—elected are still going full steam ahead. but in terms of actually postponing the election, you know, trump himself bandied

around that possibility a couple of months agojust saying that the pandemic as a whole, not because he was suffering from it, warranted a delay. and even members of his own party poured cold water on that idea. there is no easy mechanism for that to happen. the constitution sets the fact that congress is in charge of when the election takes place and that is now set by law. so you would have to have some kind of extraordinary legislative action for that to happen, so i do not see any kind of delay to the election taking place. now, what might happen is that, if trump should lose, he certainly has an excuse to say, "well, it is because i got sick. i was on the comeback trail or i was doing very well and then i fell ill." but i think the election was to go ahead as we expect it to. —— will still go ahead.

of course, these claims of legitimacy, as we have been hearing coming from the trump team already before all this. do you think, again, it is very unlikely that the election will be delayed? what if, god forbid, president trump becomes incapacitated and becomes severely ill? constitutionally this cannot happen unless there is a major step by congress to change the law but the law demands the an election on the day is set now. that is not going to change. the question is, of course, if trump deteriorates, severely, in his health, then it is not so much a question of the delay of the election but he will have to push forward, as i said before, the two deputies. the vice presidents—to—be on both sides to play a greater role. for one thing, if the president is incapacitated, vice president pence will have to take over. there is a regency model, like you have in britain, by the monarch is incapacitated by ill—health, as george iii once was in the early 19th century, then the next in line would take over as regent.

and so, i can envisage a situation where, for some time, before the election, even, that is to say if the health situation deteriorated for president trump, mike pence might come forward and take hold of the reins of government for the time being. we will have to see how long that will last but i think he will be called upon to be, as it were, the regent, to carry on the business of government. i imagine there will be great reluctance from the white house, from donald trump's team, for that to happen. henry, can i ask ahead of this vp debate this week, how do both these figures poll publicly across the us? well, the vice presidency in general is not particularly considered an important post. the debate is often a sideshow except, interestingly, when biden had his vice presidential debate in the second election for obama, there was widespread belief that

biden's performance actually helped pull obama out of a funk. that obama himself had not done very well in his first presidential debate and as vice presidential candidate he was able to help revive the campaign. here, harris is a very experienced debater. she is a such a sharp questioner in the senate and mike pence knows her from the senate. these are two familiar sparring partners. there will be fireworks that we will see and people will pay attention to that. i do not know that anyone will be looking at that debate, thinking of mike pence necessarily as the president—in—waiting because the constitutional mechanisms don't actually, when it comes to a candidate, immediately say that he becomes the candidate should president trump die before the election. so people will be watching it with interest but still, the main event is between biden and trump. 0k. we will leave that there for now because, obviously, it is very much in flux and regardless of politics i

think everyone does wish the president and his wife good health as fast as possible. it almost went unnoticed this week, but the eu moved to sue the uk as it breached the internal markets bill, overriding the withdrawal treaty. this weekend borisjohnson is having a virtual meeting — talking online — to ursula van der leyen, as the final brexit clock at the end of the year draws closer. thomas, how would you describe relations between these two leaders as far as we know? well, relations are really coming to a crunch, as it were. they are having to improve, between the two of them, they have to find the mode of talking and solving the conundrum that we have found in the negotiations. and the fact that they are going to talk, and this is going to be an essential sort of meeting, albeit virtual, it means that there is hope in the air because, when you look at the

outstanding issues, it isjust about a level playing field, government aid, and it is fisheries. fisheries is, in terms of gdp, a very small matter indeed, both in the economy of great britain and the economy of the eu, but with one exception. there is president macron of france, who is the elephant in the room, who is looking at his re—election in 2022 and he does not, want to stand before his people to say he sold out the fishery rights of french fishermen, so there has to be a compromise. that is the key issue here that they have to solve. britain is proposing a sort of zonal attachment, by which you have a transition period of three years in which both sides can get used to the new quota of fish that they are

allowed to fish in europe. but i do not think the fishing issue is going to be the one that will wreck four years of negotiations. both sides cannot afford to fail in this dialogue. think of coronavirus. the damage it does to the economies, both on the continent and both in britain. you do not want to shoulder another crisis, like the brexit no deal, to add to the huge economic problems that both sides feel. i mean, the european union — i call it a european union of covid. we are struggling to meet our government responsibility. we are hugely in debt all over and so is britain. and i think, for that reason, the covid issue is going to drive us towards a solution and a deal before the end of the year. that is my prediction.

much was made of the us—uk trade deal. boris and president trump seem to have good personal relations but ifjoe biden comes in, that could also change the whole dynamic between the us and uk governments. that is right. i think that the us—uk trade deal is actually on hold at the moment. it is not at the forefront of the minds of leaders and government at the moment, obviously. it is the election, and it will depend on who emerges victorious from that election. trump has promised a uk deal but there have been some reservations on behalf of his administration and he will also be looking still to see the kind of economic deals that he can cut in other parts of the world. so i would not imagine that the trade deal with the british is going to be top of the priority list of either a biden administration or trump mark 2. can i just quickly bring in hugh on this? because this applies to all governments. all departments, civil servants behind the scenes, have been

drawn into covid from other departments. is it likely that time on brexit and other matters will have been squeezed? i think so. this domestic crisis for the uk, covid—i9, is the biggest that has been seen in generations for any government. then you have got the issue of brexit as well and the exact terms of departure with all the problems we have just been hearing about. whitehall, the centre of the civil service and advisors for british government, they are pretty exhausted there, with the huge challenge of covid—i9, having to deal with all these restrictions on peoples' everyday lives. get that right and look at the spread of the virus, and how the nhs copes, plus these talks on brexit. they are two huge challenges and i think the whole government machine is extremely stretched. one million deaths were recorded around the world this week from covid with countless more not diagnosed. there are of course fears of a recession this winter too and balancing health and financial risks has been the core tension for governments around the world.

here boris johnson is criticised from both sides — those wanting more or fewer restrictions — and for failing to steer a clear path but is that fundamentally unfair, given constantly changing evidence and the understandable human dilemma at the heart of all these decisions? hugh, the numbers in the uk first of all. we have seen thisi million number, which did feel like a bit of a landmark, didn't it? and of course untold more that we do not count. yes. i mean, first of all, you have got the way of measuring deaths. the official count each day from the british government is deaths within 28 days of somebody contracting covid—i9. it does not cover those who picked it up earlier, or a certain number of deaths in the community, so there is that issue. what we don't know is the full extent of people who have got seriously ill and have not survived because they did not get medical treatment because the national health service was so focused, understandably, on covid—i9

back in march, april, may, and clearing hospitals to allow space for covid—i9 patients. others who were just worried about going in for treatment. therefore they missed out on crucial diagnostics and scans and so on. and there is a growing view that you could almost get to a point of having as many deaths from people who did not have covid—i9 but other causes which were excess to what you normally get. excess deaths is what we want to see in terms of the data and that would take a little time to actually be fully apprised. henry, president trump is my position has of course put covid right back front and centre if it had ever gone away. 200,000 deaths and many more affected in the us. absolutely. and alsojust looking around the world, one remarkable figure that stuck out to me this past week or two is the fact that india, which is now number two in terms of the total number of

infections, it went from 3 million and 22.6 million in barely a month. —— and doubled to six million. that is a remarkable figure. some of that is due to greater testing. but just the fact that you could have that kind of a jump in so short a time shows us that this coronavirus is not going away any time soon and we are indeed, in the northern hemisphere, moving into wintry season and so there has been talk of what they call a twindemic. you've got the coronavirus but also the usual flu season coming around. what is interesting is that some of the data coming out from southern hemisphere countries that have already gone through a winter with the coronavirus and the flu, is actually shown that, in places like south africa and australia, flu incidents has actually been quite low and that is because, they are theorising, the same kinds of preventative measures you would take against the coronavirus, wearing masks, keeping socially distanced, are of course effective against the flu as well. and so as much as that people can actually stick to these guidelines, that can also keep the flu infections down. but we are still in a very tricky

period with coronavirus. we have not turned a corner. the end is not in sight the way that trump has said. i would say that one bright spot does seem to be the possibility, in coming months, of a vaccine of some sort. its effectiveness, we won't know for some time to come but there might be glimmers of hope at least in our future. whether the numbers are giving us any glimmer of hope. here is the question that some have been looking at. whether there is a slight fall in the rate of growth certainly in the uk this week. just to add to what henryjust said, we are all discussing the perilous situation the world is in in view of this uncanny illness, it is doubly important that we not allow our economies to deteriorate any more than they already have. the economy of the world, the world economy is in dire

straits and if we allow our divisions and political feelings like brexit to make it more difficult for business to act and to operate in europe, in this case, britain and the eu, i think nobody would forgive the leaders and in this case would forgive boris johnson and the european leaders in brussels, to have not seized the moment and come to an agreement. we need to focus on the economic well—being of the world. lots of people are going to be threatened by unemployment. there is going to be misery spread all over the place, unless we really move forward where we can and brexit, i think, we can do that. but it must be done. we cannot afford to allow more dissent to make the economic businesses of the world and our countries to make it more difficult than it already is. we will leave it there. at this very dramatic point, it feels, in all other countries' positions and their futures. thank you very much indeed.

that's it for dateline london for this week. i'm back at the same time next week. bye for now. hello there. we have already seen a lot of rainfall this weekend. more wet weather to come through the day today for a number of areas. those rainfall totals have been really mounting up. over the last three days, winchcombe in gloucestershire has had more than a month's worth of rain. more than a months worth in parts of aberdeenshire and parts of hampshire and berkshire as well. the weather has been particularly wet, all down to this slow moving area of low pressure with a stuck weather front right over the british isles, bringing rain

for many of us through saturday, overnight, and it is still raining at the moment as well. that said, we are starting to see something of an improvement in eastern areas but with the met office amber weather warning still in force right the way to the middle part of the day, across wales, the west midlands and south—west england, we could see further issues building in here. as well as his persistent band of rain, it will be windy particularly around coastal areas. the rain pivoting away from the south and east of scotland but brighter weather here and we should see sunshine for northern england across north wales, into parts of the midlands, maybe norfolk, but with sunny skies, we are also seeing some heavy showers. the rainfall has been mounting up with the accumulations of rain building will have a number of flood warnings in force across parts of scotland and england. —— we now have. once you have factored in today's rain, we could see the number of warnings increase for a time.

overnight tonight, the rain will tend to clear away for most areas, with the exception of south—west england where it will continue to rain through much of the night. overnight clear spells and heavy showers, particularly for northern england and scotland as well. low pressure then, this is the low that has been bringing rain through the weekend. that is still on the chancery monday, tuesday and into wednesday as well. a particularly slow—moving area of low pressure. weather—wise, it means we are staying on the unsettled side but it is turning a little bit less grim for some of us. scotland, england and wales brighter skies, sunshine but some potentially heavy, thundery showers, particularly in the east. outbreaks of persistent rain returned to northern ireland during the day. tuesday, another showery day but at this time the showers across england and wales could merge together to bring longer spells of rain for a time. further showers at times for northern ireland and scotland. temperatures continue to be below par but the rain is cause for concern, we could see further flooding today.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. in a video message from hospital, president trump says he's doing well but that the next few days will be crucial as he continues his treatment for coronavirus. i'm starting to feel good. you don't know, over the next period of a few days, i guess that's the real test, so we'll be seeing what happens over those next couple of days. more members of the president's inner circle are also testing positive. they include his campaign adviser, chris christie, who's checked himself into hospital. i'm ben brown in london with the other main stories. the uk prime minister, borisjohnson, warns there could be "a very tough winter" ahead, as the country deals with coronavirus.