where he's due to spend a third night being treated for coronavirus. he appeared in the back of his armoured car wearing a face mask to wave at supporters. doctors treating the president say he's continuing to recover well. there's been a new surge in fighting between azerbaijan and armenia over the disputed territory of nagorno karabakh, a week after the long running conflict re—ignited. russia has called for a ceasefire. azerbaijan has threatened to destroy military targets inside armenia. public health england says nearly sixteen thousand cases public health england says nearly 16,000 cases of coronavirus have not been added to the uk daily total over the last week due to a computer glitch. some of the unreported cases have been added to sunday's figure of 22,961.

now on bbc news, dateline london. hello, welcome to dateline london. 2020 will surely go down in the history books as one of the most dramatic any of us have lived through. the news of donald trump's covid—19 diagnosis was greeted around the world with shock and, in some cases, disbelief. with joe biden ahead in the polls, donald trump needed to do something to change the narrative in the presidential election. some on twitter initially asked was this diagnosis a hoax. well, once the facts were fully established, the narrative certainly has changed. first, of course, how will mr trump, now in hospital, respond in health terms to the virus?

how might that change his perception of the risks, of mask wearing? how will the american public react/ and what does this all do to the campaign and the election itself? 0ne leader who knows what it is like to be the victim of a pandemic whilst trying to govern your country at the same time is borisjohnson. this weekend, the final brexit deadline draws closer. the uk prime minister is in talks with the head of european commission, ursula von der leyen. there are hopes of a deal but how much each side trusts the other will no doubt be key. finally, a grim milestone this week — 1 million people have been confirmed to have died from covid globally, with many more undiagnosed and not counted. as the northern hemisphere heads into winter, how bleak is it looking and is there any grants for optimism in the numbers? with me to discuss all this are henry chu of the los angels times, and thomas kielinger, author

and long—time correspondent for devout, and here in the studio, i'm joined by hugh pym, our health editor. thanks to all of you very much for your time today. i'm just going to kick off with the story that has obviously galvanised global news cycles in the last 2a hours. and president trump, of course, is not the first us president to suffer ill health whilst in office. woodrow wilson, kennedy, reagan all had documented troubles but covid and how it effects us is still highly unpredictable. and we are just a month from the elections, on november the 3rd. so hugh pym, if i can begin with you, how vulnerable is donald trump? well, president trump is in the most vulnerable category or approaching the most vulnerable category. anybody over 65 is more at risk, if the get covid—19 of becoming seriously ill, and the chances of death increase quite substantially as you get older beyond that. he is 7a. the death rate for 75—year—olds and over is one in 25, with covid—19. so that still leaves a lot of people who get coronavirus, who go into hospital,

who do pull through, we should emphasise that. the president also has a high bmi — body mass index. patients who are overweight and obese are more vulnerable, and also men are more vulnerable than women. so he is very much in a vulnerable category but we should keep stressing that going into hospital does not in any way mean that he has not got a good chance of recovering quickly. henry chu, give me a sense of what you are seeing and hearing from the us. there's been a lot of different responses. they are politically governed to a degree but this has been a real shock, hasn't it? it has. it is the "october surprise" that people often talk about when it comes to american presidential elections. i think you have a mix of reactions. of course, you have

those who are reacting with compassion and sympathy, often on the republican side of the aisle, and those who are feeling the this is some kind of karma or it's poeticjustice for a president who has downplayed this pandemic from the start. in fact, on a thursday night, just a few hours before he announced his diagnosis, he was seen in a pre—recorded video at a charity dinner saying that the end of the academic was in sight. so i think for him, the danger is that his falling ill like this has completely undermined that message that he has been hammering over the past several months, the claims that the us has turned the corner, that this is all going to be behind us soon, and that his administration had done a remarkable job of protecting americans, though we have the highest number of deaths and the highest number of infections in the world. thomas kielinger, international leaders, including angela merkel, yesterday sent their good wishes to the president. what is your perception, how has reaction been in germany and across europe to this? it has certainly been a great shock in germany as well, because it has added another imponderable, another uncertainty to the state of the world we are in at the moment, where nothing can be predicted anymore. this event now upends the american election.

it throws it totally open and you can't, as a politician or a leading politician like angela merkel or anyone else, for that matter, you cannot really sort of adjust to the situation because it is an ongoing story, an ongoing narrative. you are shooting at moving targets from a moving platform. where can you call it a halt? so we are hoping, of course, that the president will not deteriorate in his health, and something of normality, of a normal election campaign can be resumed but, on balance, as you look at all the factors, this is probably unlikely. we will have a situation where maybe the deputies, the two vice presidential candidates, will come to the fore more and shape the political narrative. but other than that, everything is up in the air, and everything is unknowable. henry? yeah, i actually would slightly dissented from that,

in the sense that i think definitely, in the immediate term, this has thrown the campaign for a loop. the second debate between biden and trump now looks in doubt that is schedules in less then two weeks' time. and the immediate campaign events that trump was scheduled to got to, the rallies from which he derives a lot of sustenance, because of the energy, because of all the cheering, that is going to be put on hold for a while but, if we look at the overall campaign and take a more bird's—eye—view, it is i think an open question right now whether this would make much difference in the overall outcome. and i say that because, if you look at polls, for example, that compare january and september, in terms of the standing of the two candidates, it is remarkable how stable the voters views,

of particularly trump, have been. he's the only president in modern polling history, never to have cleared 50% in his approval rating yet, at the same time, his base of about 40% has remained remarkably strong and absolutely behind him. if you even go further back than that, i think to 2017, in a theoretical matchup between biden and trump, the lead that biden has now is the same as in that poll three years ago. so the reason is that we have an incumbent president going for re—election and, in these situation, almost always, it is a referendum on that president, and this is a president about whom most voters have already made up their minds. and so bar a catastrophic turn of events, in terms of his medical condition, it still remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have on the election outcome. 0k, thomas kielinger. what i would like to add to it though, which makes me more uncertain about the whole story, is that the voters, as it were, opinion of leading figures,

can change to the degree of how they now behave. biden, for example, has done something remarkably sensible like calling off all partisan electioneering. this is a very good step for him who in the presidential debate used a horrible line like, " shut up, man" to the president which i thought was absolutely a statement too far down the denigration scale. america has only one office which matters — the president is both the monarch and he is the political leader and there is an aura about this office, whatever you think about the holder of the office — and certainly biden couldn't care less about trump the man — but you cannot sort of denigrate the mystique of the office and there is an aura you have to respect. so he is doing better now and it adds to his likeability, dare i say, biden, whereas trump will simply be quiet for some time to come.

the psychological mix of the standing off between the two candidates may change in the eye of the voters. let me bring you in, pym, here, because, obviously the uk went through this incredible emotional roller—coaster, i think it is not unfair to say, as we watched our prime minister at the start of the pandemic initially getting it, looking 0k, broadcasting from downing street, on recorded zooms, and then being admitted to hospital and icu. and there's been a lot of comment about whether that has had an impact on boris johnson personally, in terms of his political outlook, his willingness to take risks. we could see a personal impact on president trump as well, depending on how this effects him ? yes, i think that there were criticisms of borisjohnson early on for not chairing key meetings of cobra committee, the emergency committee that was handling the early stages of the pandemic, and appearing to be a bit standoffish. that was strongly denied

by downing street but, having had his extraordinary experience, when he was very seriously ill and in intensive care, there's a feeling he came out with a different appreciation of the risks of covid—i9, and an absolute determination to ensure that it did not get out of control again and that restrictive measures were ta ken. whether it changes donald trump's perspective, we will have to wait and see. there's obviously a bit of a difference. borisjohnson was left in his flat in downing street for a week. there weren't these treatments that the president is now being given available. less was known about covid—i9. he eventually went to hospital on a sunday night was in intensive care 2a hours after. so he was much sicker by the time he got there than president appears to be at the moment, having gone there as a precautionary measure. these things can change very, very fast. henry chu, again there's been so much comment about legitimacy in terms of how the campaign now runs. we are due to see the vice residential debate this week. if donald trump is taken out

of action on the campaign front, will there be pressure onjoe biden to pull back and how ultimately will any decision be made about the worst possible outcome of having to delay the election, for example. i think thomas is right in saying that biden has tried to rise above this, from a partisan point of view, to say that everybody's thoughts and prayers are with the president and that he does not wish him any kind of personal ill that way. but it is not going to i think reign in his campaigning in any way. he still has his events that are on his schedule, he is still going to appear at campaign stops — that is not halting at all — nor are the super packs with the lobby groups behind him, are still proceeding with their activities as are the trump campaigns. i mean, the president may not be at these events, but those who are his proxies and the organisations that are trying to get him re—elected are still going full steam ahead but, in terms of actually postponing the election — trump himself banded around that possibility a couple of months ago, just saying that the pandemic is a whole — not even obviously because he was suffering from it — warranted a delay and even members of his own party poured cold water

on that idea. there is no easy mechanism for that to happen. the constitution sets the fact that congress is in charge of when the election takes place and that is now set by law. you would have to have some kind of extraordinary legislative action for that to happen so i do not see any kind of delay to the election taking place. what might happen is that, if trump should lose, he certainly has an excuse to say, it is because i got sick. i was on the comeback trail, i was doing very well, and i then fell ill but i think election will still go ahead, as we expect it to. these claims of illegitimacy

coming from the trump team already before all this, thomas kielinger. would you think again it is very unlikely the election will be delayed and what if, god forbid, president trump does become incapacitated and becomes severely ill? as henry said, constitutionally this cannot happen, unless the major step is taken by congress to change the law but the law demands an election on the day set now, so that is not going to change. the question is, of course, if trump deteriorates severely in his health then it is not so much a question of delay an election but he will have to push forward, as i said before, the two deputies, the vice presidents to be, on both sides, to play a greater role. for one thing, if the president is incapacitated, vice president pence will have to take over. it is sort of a regency model like you have in britain. when the monarch is incapacitated by ill health, as george iii once was, in the early 90s century, then the next in line will take over as regent. so i can envisage a situation where, for some time, before the election even, that is to say if the health situation deteriorates for president trump, mike pence might come forward and take hold of the reins

of government for the time being. we will see how long that would have to last but i think he will be called upon to be as it were the regent to carry on the business of government. i imagine there's going to be be great reluctance, obviously, from the white house and donald trump's team for that to happen. henry, ahead of this vp debate this week, how do both these figures poll publicly across the us? the vice presidency, in general, is not particularly considered an important post. and the debate is often a side—show, except, interestingly, when biden had his vice presidential debate in the second election for 0bama, there was widespread belief that biden's performance actually helped pull 0bama out of a funk that 0bama himself had not done very well in his first presidential debate and, as a vice presidential candidate, he was able to help revive the campaign.

here, kamala harris is a very experienced debater, she is a sharp questioner in the senate. mike pence knows her from the senate. these are two familiar sparring partners. i think there will be some fireworks that we will see, and people will certainly pay attention to that. i did not know that anyone will be looking at that debate thinking of mike pence necessarily as the president—in—waiting because the constitutional mechanisms don't actually, when it comes to a candidate, immediately say that he becomes the candidate should president trump die before the elections, so people will be watching it with interest but still, the main event is between the biden and trump. we'll leave that there for now, because obviously it is very much in flux, and i think regardless of politics everybody does wish the president and his wife good health as fast as possible. it almost went unnoticed this week, but the eu moved to sue the uk as it breached

the internal markets bill, overwriting the withdrawal treaty. this weekend borisjohnson is having a virtual meeting, talking online to ursula von der leyen as the brexit clock at the end of the year draws closer. well, thomas, how would you describe relations between these two leaders, as far as we know? well, the relations are coming to a crunch, as it were, so they are having to improve. between the two of them they will have to find a mode of talking and solving the conundrum that we have found the negotiations in. the fact that they're going to talk, and this is going to be a very essential sort of meeting, albeit virtual, means that there is hope in the air, because when you look at the outstanding issues, it's just about the level playing field, about government aid, and fisheries. now, fisheries is — in terms of gdp — a very

small matter indeed. both in the economy of great britain and the economy of the eu. with one exception. that is president macron of france, who is the elephant in the room. he's looking at his probably re—election in 2022, and he doesn't want to stand before his people to say he sold out the fishery rights of french fishermen. so there has to be a compromise. that is the key issue here they have to solve. britain is proposing a sort of zonal attachment, a modus vivendi, by which you have a transition period of three years in which both sides can get used to the new quota of fish that they're allowed to fish in europe. but i don't think the fisheries issue is going to be the one that will wreck four years of negotiations. both sides cannot afford to fail in this dialogue.

think of the coronavirus, the damage it does to the economies, both on the continent and both in britain, you don't want to shoulder another crisis like the brexit no deal, to add to the economic, the huge economic problems that both sides feel. the european union, i call it a "european union of covid," we are struggling to meet our government responsibility. we are hugely in debt all over and so is britain. i think for that reason the covid issue is going to drive us towards a solution and towards a deal before the end of the year, that is my prediction. well, as much is made of a us—uk trade deal, boris and trump seeming to have good personal relations, but ifjoe biden comes in that

could also change the whole dynamic between the us and the uk governments? that's right. i think that the us—uk trade deal is actually on hold at the moment. it's not what is in the forefront of the minds of the leaders and government at the moment, obviously, it is the election. and then it will depend on who emerges victorious from that election. trump has promised a uk deal, but there have been some reservations on behalf of his administration, and he will also be looking still to see the kind of economic deals he can cut in other parts of the world. so i wouldn't imagine that the trade deal with the british is going to be top of the priority list of either a biden administration or trump mark can ijust quickly bring in hugh on this as well? because this applies to all governments, all government departments, the civil service, the people behind the scenes have been drawn into covid, haven't they, from other departments? so is it likely that time on brexit and other matters would have been squeezed?

i think so. this domestic crisis for the uk, covid—i9, is the biggest that's been seen in generations for any government, then you've got the issue of brexit as well, and the exact terms of departure with all the problems we've just been hearing about. i mean, whitehall, the centre of the civil service and advisers for the british government, they're pretty exhausted there with the huge challenge of covid—i9, having to deal with all these restrictions on people's everyday lives, get that right, and look at the spread of the virus and how the nhs copes, plus these talks on brexit, they're two huge challenges and i think the whole government machine is extremely stretched. 0k, well, back to covid, i'm afraid. and i million deaths were recorded around the world this week from coronavirus, with countless more not diagnosed. there are of course fears of a recession this winter too, and balancing health and financial risks has been the core tension for governments around the world. here, borisjohnson was criticised from both sides, those wanting more or fewer restrictions, and for failing

to steer a clear path. but is that fundamentally unfair, given constantly changing evidence and the understandable dilemma at the heart of all these decisions? hugh, the numbers in the uk, first of all, we've seen this i million number, which did sort of feel like a bit of a landmark, didn't it, and of course, untold more that we don't count? yes, i mean, first of all, you've got the way of measuring deaths. the official account each day from the british government is deaths within 28 days of somebody contracting covid—i9, it doesn't cover those who've picked it up earlier. it doesn't cover a certain number of deaths in the community. so there's that issue. and what we don't know

is the full extent of people who've got seriously ill and haven't survived because they didn't medical treatment, because the national health service was so focused, understandably, covid—i9, back in march, april, may, and clearing hospitals to allow space for covid—i9 patients. others, who were just worried about going into treatment, therefore they missed out on crucial diagnostics and scans and so on. and there is a growing view that you could almost get to a point of having as many deaths from people who didn't have covid—i9, but other causes, which were excess to what you would normally get, excess deaths is what we want to see in terms of the data, and that will take a little time to actually be fully appraised. henry chu, president trump's position has of course put covid right back front and centre, if it had ever gone away. we know 200,000 deaths, many more affected in the us? absolutely. and also, just looking around the world, one remarkable figure that stuck out to me this past week or two is the fact that in india, which is now number two in terms of the total number of infections, it went from 3 million and doubled to 6 million in barely a month. now, that is a remarkable figure. some of that is due to greater testing, but just the fact that

you can have that kind of a jump, in so short a time, shows us that this coronavirus is not going away anytime soon, and we are indeed, in the northern hemisphere, moving into winter season and so there has been talk of what they call a 'twindemic,' you know, you've got the coronavirus but also the usual flu season coming around. what is interesting is that some of the data coming out from southern hemisphere countries that have already gone through winter with the coronavirus and the flu, it has actually shown that in places like south africa and australia, flu incidence has actually been quite low, and that is because, they're theorising, that the same kinds of preventative measures you would take against the coronavirus, wearing masks, keeping socially distanced, are of course effective against the flu as well. and so as much as people can actually stick to these guidelines, that can also keep the flu infections down. but we are still in a very tricky period with this coronavirus. we have not turned a corner,

the end is not in sight the way trump has said. i would say that one bright spot does seem to be the possibility in coming months of a vaccine of some sort. its effectiveness we won't know for some time to come, but there might be glimmers of hope, at least, in ourfuture. thomas, whether the numbers are giving us any glimmer of hope here is the question that some will be looking at, whether there was a slight fall in the rate of growth, certainly in the uk this week? just to add to what henryjust said, and we are all discussing the perilous situation the world is in, in view of this uncanny illness, it's doubly important that we not allow our economies to deteriorate even more than they normally have. the economy of the world, the world economy, is in dire straits, and if we allow our divisions and political fevers like brexit to make it more difficult for business to act and to operate in europe, in this case britain and the eu, i think nobody

will forgive the leaders, in this case, will forgive boris johnson and the european leaders in brussels, to have not seized the moment and come to an agreement. we need to focus on the economic well—being of the world. lots of people are going to be threatened by unemployment. there's going to be misery spread all over the place, unless we really move forward where we can. and in brexit i think we can do that, but it must be done, we cannot afford to allow more dissent to make the economic business of the world and our countries more difficult than it already is. gentlemen, we will leave it there, at this very dramatic point, it feels, in all our countries' positions and our futures. thank you so much, thomas kielinger, henry chu and hugh pym, thank you very much indeed. that's it for dateline london this week. i'm back at the same time next week. bye for now.

hello there. it was an extremely wet weekend pretty much across the whole of the country, thanks to a vigorous area of low pressure which parked itself across the uk, so we still have dozens of flood warnings in force across the country. but the good news is through this new week, it is not going to be quite as wet, although it will remain fairly unsettled, thanks to low pressure always nearby, which will produce more showers. 0ur area of low pressure isn't in a hurry to go anywhere fast. it will be across the country through the course of today, but a slightly weaker feature, although we'll see a weather front reinvigorate again across western areas, bringing some more persistent rain to northern ireland, wales and the south—west. elsewhere across the country, it's sunny spells and scattered

showers, and some of the showers could turn out to be heavy and thundery. a little bit warmer across the wall, particularly in the south—east, where we could see 16 or 17 degrees in the sunny spells. it's a similar picture on both tuesday and wednesday with further showers and sunshine — again, some of the showers could turn out to be heavy and it will turn windier in the south.

this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm james reynolds. our top stories: remarkable scenes outside the walter reed medical center, as president trump takes a short ride to greet his supporters. the convoy comes back in this direction, and about six feet away from me, the president is waving. mr trump is being treated for coronavirus, earlier doctors said they were pleased with his progress. if he continues to look and feel as well as he does today, our hope is that we can plan for a discharge as early as tomorrow to the white house where he can continue his treatment.