justin lessler is an associate professor and expert in infectious disease epidemiology atjohn hopkins university. hejoins us now. let's he joins us now. let's look at some of the claims that president trump made that flu is more lethal than covid. i suppose he compared it to the 1918 spanish pandemic, when 675 americans lost their lives. that is true but not since then? no, not since then. any of the flu strange circulating recently look like covid is much as a hundred times more deadly than this. the fact that he thinks he's recovered, again is not really telling the truth because even his medical team he's —— say he's not out of the woods. i would be interesting to see what the longer—term responses to the

treatments he's been given. longer—term responses to the treatments he's been givenli longer—term responses to the treatments he's been given. i don't know the details of his particular court but it is the property of this disease that's of the people of done poorly have appear to recover and ten or so days after symptoms fall offa ten or so days after symptoms fall off a cliff and get much sicker. ten or so days after symptoms fall off a cliff and get much sickeri was looking at dexa methadone, which could lead to a euphoric initial response. looking more widely at this, how dangerous or otherwise is the message that the president is sending out? i think it gives a false sense of security, particularly the don't wear masks, sort of implicit in that message. because that is a critical thing that we can easily do to protect each other, protect ourselves and

protect others. it doesn't really require that much sacrifice on our parts. but i also think in his age group, people like him out there. people are really high risk. if you have... if you're in that group, your chances of dying can be 10% or even higher, and i think sending the message to others in his particular demographic group that there is nothing to worry about is a bad message. what also struck mean just watching him last night, no mention of the 210,000 americans who lost their life. yeah, i think that alone isa number their life. yeah, i think that alone is a number that should make you understand that this is not influenza. even in pandemic influenza. even in pandemic influenza years, we haven't seen this many deaths, certainly nothing

close to the 2009 pandemic. where are we in states with the introductory? —— trajectory. are we in states with the introductory? -- trajectory. overall in the country, some places are going up. i wasjust looking at the numbers today. but it's been pretty sta ble numbers today. but it's been pretty stable and as case numbers are starting to jump now, stable and as case numbers are starting tojump now, i think the big question is what's going to happen as the weather turns colder. people will be first inside. where i live, a lot of people are having social interactions and the part where it's a bit safer. not com pletely where it's a bit safer. not completely safe, but safer. —— the park. those interactions may be forced inside to become far riskier. i worry that we'll see a big update on the fall, but i think it's too early to know. i remember in the white house where president trump was trumpeting the debate fanfare.

the test for the virus in this country, we're having our own problems in testing with the numbers, how is that being rolled out across the states? we have increasing testing availability in more and more access to rapid tests and things that can create tools for control, but i think the thing to remember is no test is perfect. the president had basically put a wall around himself of testing as his way to keep safe, and because we've let there be so many chains of transmission going and going in the united states, the virus managed to break through that wall of testing. testing as part of the story and pa rt testing as part of the story and part of the solution, but needs to be working with other control measures and what we do this test so bring counts down altogether. as an

epidemiologist, how many ways has the states had or is it more consultative now? are we at the end in some areas? you're right. we have as much diversity in our epidemic across the h —— across states. i think overall, we never really had a supplicant think overall, we never really had a supplica nt way because think overall, we never really had a supplicant way because we never really got out of the first wave. it's been sort of the slow simmer for a while, and it's been sort of the slow simmer fora while, and i it's been sort of the slow simmer for a while, and i don't think anyone can really make a claim to be out of the woods yet. only maybe new york city could claim to have enough immunity to be protected from big surges in cases simply by the number of people been infected. other

places, if you look at how much immunity we expect, it's only in the 10% range. maybe a little higher. and that as far as we can tell is not enough to protect the population. justin lester, infectious disease expert atjohn hopkins university. thanks for joining us. the church of england failed to take child abuse seriously for decades, focusing on its own representation and creating a culture where abusers are able to hide. it's report says almost 400 clergy were convicted of offences between the 1940s and 2018. here's mark easton.

allegations of child abuse in a way that conflicts with its moral purpose. instead of protecting victims it focused attention on supporting alleged perpetrators. alleged perpetrators, men like the dean of manchester, robert waddington, the bishop of gloucester, peter ball, the bishop of chester, victor whitsey, and the trainee priest timothy storey, all known to have sexually abused children. the church, today the's enquiry report finds, created a culture where such abusers could hide. clergy are still allowed to officiate, even after they've been convicted of child sexual abuse, but it sends a really strong moral message if you say, if you have been convicted of child sexual abuse, you are no longer allowed to officiate as a member of the clergy in the church of england or indeed any other church. i think many people would be amazed that they are. i think that's right. the report has found 390 church of england figures have been convicted of abusing children since 1940, and evidence that abuse remains a current

and significant issue. in the year 2018 alone, the enquiry discovered there were more than 2500 safeguarding concerns, and 449 child sexual abuse allegations reported. at church house today, senior clergy said they would support an enquiry recommendation that allegations of abuse should be dealt with by professional safeguarding officers rather than bishops. the church of england filed catastrophically in its duty to care for children and vulnerable people, and in its support for victims and survivors. that has to change, that is changing. we are utterly committed to that change. the church of england insists it will do what's necessary to make amends for its sins, but for the survivors of this pervasive and extensive institutional failure, there are still questions of trust. this man was abused by an anglican vicar in the 1970s but says he has onlyjust come to terms with what happened. now a campaigner for survivors,

he says the church of england has covered up and avoided its crimes too often. how deep a wound is there to be healed here? i think massive. many survivors have walked away limping, you know, bitter, angry. many have, i think, crawled under rocks to nurse their anger, because they've been treated often so badly. i've learnt to be ashamed again of the church. the archbishop of canterbury, justin welby, who appeared before the enquiry last year, has written an open letter apologising for the shameful way the church has acted. for abuse survivors, the test will be whether that contrition turns into action. mark easton, bbc news. you're watching bbc news the time is 839. return to the spread of the coronavirus in the uk. the latest government data shows that there

we re government data shows that there were 14,542 new infections recorded in the past 25 period. that means the average number of new cases a day in the last week is 11900 and 90 for. is 11,994, hospital admissions jumped significantly on sunday now on average 470 people are being admitted every day over the past week. this number doesn't include scotland. 76 deaths were reported that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. that means on average in the past week, 53 deaths were announced every day which takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 42,445. additional coronavirus restrictions to be announced in scotland on wednesday will not amount to another lockdown, nicola sturgeon has said. she'll be making an announcement on potential further restrictions to slow the spread

of the coronavirus, tomorrow. she was speaking as 800 new cases of covid—19 were confirmed across the country, with the number of people in hospital with the virus rising by 44 overnight to 262. we are not proposing another lockdown at this stage. nor even on a temporary basis. we are not going to be asking you to stay inside your own homes, we are not about to impose travel restrictions on the whole of the country for the up we are not about to shut down the entire economy, we are not about to halt the mobilisation of the nhs. apart from the october holidays which are already planned, we are not proposing to close schools. meanwhile in england, the number of people being admitted to hospital with coronavirus has jumped by a quarter in just one day. it's the largest daily figure since the beginning ofjune — and comes as cases soar in hotspots across northern england.

with me is professor debby bogaert — an expert in infectious diseases at the university of edinburgh and also i'm joined by dr chris smith, a virologist at the university of cambridge. welcome to you both. i suppose we can welcome to you both. i suppose we ca n start welcome to you both. i suppose we can start generally, why do you both think we are seeing these spikes regionally? debbie, perhapsi think we are seeing these spikes regionally? debbie, perhaps i can start with you. i think in scotland we have seen the from several weeks ago when the universities were opening up and a lot of students coming to our university towns that that was sort of, exaggerating the increase throughout the country. i think that has been the initial spike that we saw. meanwhile we see a general trickling through of cases towards the more older age groups. that's something to worry about as well is the number of cases throughout the country are starting

to rise. that's exactly why there is currently being evaluating more it measures are needed. just on a wider context, and birmingham have said that the national lockdown was lifted too early and that the regions were sacrificed for the sake of london and getting the economy running. is there any truth or not, do you think? it's very easy to be wise in retrospect, it is in a? the reality is, if you have a population of people that are susceptible to infection, and we think about 90% of the uk possible delete that population remain susceptible derive from antibody testing and estimates on how many with a catas is so far. you can think of this is like a big woodpile which it's nice and dry and if you put a match to it it can flare up. well, the virus never went away. lockdown did suppress the virus but we retained activity in

the population so you've got this big nice would pile a virus which is the fire, but the two together and it very quickly given the opportunity is going to flare up again. that's exactly what we saw. and it's happened in pretty much every country. if you look across europe, this is very difficult to manage and that's why every country has found itself with the same headache on a tan. the existing lockdown locally isn't working. where does this go? wind the clock back to march when we had ferociously highlight rates in our country as did many countries. the lockdown was introduced and i agree that that was a good course of action at the time because we didn't know what we were dealing with. this was one—way to very quickly control decisively. which is what we did. and it suppressed numbers right down. it bought us some very important breathing space was up in opportunity to take stock, to learn and then to evaluate what we should

be doing next. but we had a lockdown, we've bought ourselves that time, we now understand a lot more about the virus, we understand a lot more about how to manage a virus. what we do now need to do is have in place a plan for going forward. what we do know is that we are not going to have a vaccine available anytime soon. hope you like to speak to agree that we are looking at many, many months probably nine months yet before we have any vaccine if were going to get a vaccine at all. that means we have to have some sc kind of strategy for the next nine months. i know chris whitty mentioned six months but we need nine months worth of planning here. and we can't keep walking down the country for nine months. we have to come up with a way to make this work. i think part of this means that we re—evaluate out of this means that we re—evaluate our relationship with this virus and we learn to tolerate a certain level of spread in the population. we can tolerate that as long as long as it doesn't get out of control and overwhelm our systems. at the same time we also have to assume that people are not to put up with us

forever. we also need to have people in our mind and peoples livelihoods and also their sanity. yeah. just looking at scotland to stop nicola sturgeon today was saying it's the most is the difficult decision yet. not a total lockdown. some people talk about this circuit breaker. is that of really gaining control perhaps without a total lockdown? the circuit breaker is an interesting term to use. obviously, to keep in outbreak under control what you need to do is trace back every chain of infection back to its basis. that's why our test and protest, protest trace is based on. it shown to work well of the summer. what you see at the moment is too many invisible chains of infection going forward and part probably because some people are asymptomatic. but then they pop up everywhere. it's hard to trace it

back to the origin. that's why i wa nt to back to the origin. that's why i want to reiterate it is so important to get back to low numbers so our test and protect our test and trace systems test and protect our test and trace syste ms ca n test and protect our test and trace systems can get that control... so it circuit breaker, could that mean for example, over half term, shut of the palms, shutter the pubs keep eve ryo ne the palms, shutter the pubs keep everyone from going out keep eve ryo ne everyone from going out keep everyone in the household the whales model. you stay in your village, you don't travel more than five miles away. that would be so difficult to enforce unless you've got the local population behind you. and be even more ruinous financially, economically. yes. it totally gets back to the fact, we need to get back to the fact, we need to get back to the core of this outbreak. people will follow the rules, need to follow the rules but also get a test when symptomatic. i can't reiterate more than that. sturgeon doesn't want to close the schools which is an important priority. but of course, the midterm break is coming up so that it can be an ideal

moment to say, schools are already close, use that. you get additional measures in place without going to a full lockdown to see whether we can break all these chains of infection. that now go there invisibly to get backin that now go there invisibly to get back in control and head of that virus. which practically would mean perhaps shutting down hospitality, perhaps shutting down hospitality, perhaps some other venues and advise people to travel as little as possible. in the meanwhile not giving that feeling that the whole society goes under lockdown. i feel it can be done but what you say, the community needs to be into this plan. we all need to be into this plan. we all need to be into this plan to make sure that in a short period of time like two weeks, we can get ahead of that virus. and yet each station speaks for itself and has its own policy for sub i wonder also, are we actually covertly winning this fight? we've seen all spite at universities and cut

colleges around the country poor stu d e nts colleges around the country poor students having a miserable time. lockdown freshers the first experience of university. but is that slowly building up some sort of herd immunity which is another way of getting through this? cynics could say that actually by putting students in university, locking them up students in university, locking them up and halls of residence and letting them do what they're doing which is infecting each other in some circumstances, yes we are building a natural immunity... are you a cynic on this one? am i encouraging this, no but i can certainly see the benefits that are going to emerge from outbreaks and universities because those students can account for christmas knowing perfectly well that there probably immune and they're not going to pose any threat to their family. but i think putting all that to 1's side, we need a long—term strategy here. keeping on shutting the academy two weeks is not enough to break the chain meaningfully. it took months for the lockdown to bite and drive the cases right down to the level

that we are saying we need to have it out so we can have an effective tracking and tracing system. two weeks does not go to cut it. we need a plan b. and that plan b are really ought to be we need to know who the most mono people are, we think we know they are, we need a plan to protect them and we therefore need a way of enabling other people to go about their business unencumbered. and to make their own riskjudgement in my view as to whether or not to go out and about. if that doesn't work then we have to reevaluate. at this stage i don't think we can carry on in the situation of limbo. it's going to put so many people out of business. the appeal is fast becoming far worse than the ill in my view. a debate which has been raising across the countries in so many different sectors of society ever since this lockdown was carried out. thank you very much indeed for joining us. the renowned british mathematician, professor sir roger penrose has been named as one of three

recipients of this year's nobel prize for physics. he received the prize for his groundbreaking work into black holes — regions of space where gravity is so strong that not even light can escape from them. sir roger shared the award with an american astronomer and a german astrophysicist. earlier sir roger explained some of the circumstances that led to his discoveries i had ihada i had a lectureship at that time at college. i was walking towards where i worked and i was in a conversation with mr robinson who was a very able and distinguished mathematical physicists he's english but he worked at dallas, texas. it was a short brief visit we had a conversation he was talking to me, he was a wonderful talker. he talked to me. we reach this little road as we cross the road, the conversation

stopped and that we got to the other side and started up again. but when he left i had the strange family leave that feeling of elation and i couldn't figure out what that was. i went through all the things that happen to be during the day when i have a breakfast and so on and so forth. then i sort of came back to this occasion when we cross the road. it ended up when we cross the road. it ended up when we cross the road i had this image which i come of the conversation had obliterated. but then i retrieved this which was the notion of what i call a trap surface. this was the criterion which would help me without any assumptions of cemetery or anything like that at all, so you didn't need to assume it was symmetrical. it tells you roughly speaking when you've got to a point of no return. and you had to do some mathematics to see why this really was a point of no return. and why you got something of the nature of what we've now got the black hole. a p pa re ntly we've now got the black hole. apparently it was just what he was having a shower. you are watching

bbc news. sad newsjust to bring you up bbc news. sad newsjust to bring you up in the last couple of minutes. that is that eddie van halen the guitarist with the group van halen has died. at the age of 65. in a statement put out on twitter his son wolfgang said his father died on tuesday, i can't believe i'm having to write this. my father his real name edvard van halen has lost his long and arduous battle with cancer his morning. the best father says wolfgang, i could ask her. every moment i shared with him on or off stage was again. my heart is broken. i don't think i will ever fully recover from this. the duchess of cambridge has visited first—year students at the university of derby to hear how the coronavirus pandemic has affected the start of their undergraduate life. during the visit kate asked students about not being able to attend lectures and how they have felt during the pandemic.

a surge in coronavirus cases in recent weeks has led to thousands of students having to self—isolate in their halls at universities across the uk. the national union of students has warned that undergraduates being "trapped in halls" could exacerbate mental health issues for the thousands who have begun their degree studies. hundreds of musicians have gathered in london and birmingham today to protest at a lack of government support for professional musicians who are freelance. they held a two minute silence saying they've been abandoned during the pandemic and urgently need help. our arts editor will gompertz reports. classical music plays. as makeshift orchestras go, this one would take some beating. 400 of the country's leading professional musicians tuning up in parliament square. they've come to make their case to the politicians gathered in the building behind them.

it's difficult to overestimate the impact that the pandemic has had on britain's live performance sector. musicians specifically have been hit really, really ha rd, having loads of gigs before and almost none afterwards. something like 30% of musicians are talking about leaving the profession altogether. 70% are earning a fraction of what they were earning this time last year. the players performed a brief passage of mars from gustav holst‘s the planets. the musicians' union said that around 85% of their 32,000 members are freelance, many of whom have been unable to claim adequate income support. there needs to be more concerted effort, whether that be through philanthropy or government funding or a combination of the two, that actually targets money towards the freelance community, because it's enormous, we rely on it, and they are being left out. when times are good and when it all comes back, actually, a huge amount of money is generated by music and entertainment. we are the destination, really. when you go to see a show

in the west end, perhaps you don't think about the people in the pit, but that's the freelancers. the musicians fell silent, both in london and in a corresponding event in birmingham, to make their point. the department for digital, culture, media and sport said it was working flat—out across the government to help the arts through covid. will gompertz, bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather with louise lear. good evening. tuesday's been a showery day, but the further east, a little more shelter and fewer showers means a little more sunshine, as you can see across north yorkshire. threatening—looking cloud though for much of the day. in parts of west wales, rough seas as the winds just close to gale force along the exposed coasts. —— gusted. we started off with sharp showers, particularly out to the west. some of those drifted their way steadily eastward through the day. they will ease down and we'll see a window of finer weather

developing for wednesday. however, just want to point out this mass of cloud across the atlantic. more rain to come across parts of england and wales in particular for thursday and friday. so the showers will ease overnight. we keep 1—2 sharp showers to the far northwest of scotland. but where skies continue to clear, temperatures may well get down into single figures. it could be a chilly start to wednesday, but a good deal of sunshine will be around. we keep that brisk northwesterly wind feeding the showers here and, as we go through the afternoon, the sunshine turns increasingly hazy with patchy rain pushing into southwest england and south wales. ahead of it though, temperatures widely peeking into the mid teens. but it's through wednesday evening and overnight towards thursday morning that we will see a spell of yet more heavy and persistent rain. we will need to keep an eye on that after events that we had over the weekend. that will gradually drift its way steadily eastwards, but this weather front may well linger for a time, bringing the potential for further pulses of wet weather particularly across parts of southern england.

so we start off on thursday morning on a wet note, hopefully that frontal system leaves away. —— thursday morning. we need to keep an eye on that and how quickly it eases away, allowing for some brightness depending on the temperatures. if we get more sunshine, we could see 17 celsius — the showers and the cooler feel continuing in the far northwest of scotland. friday still brings the risk of yet more rain, particularly across england and wales. but the weekend shows signs of improvement — and that's because we have an area of high pressure just slowly pushing in from the atlantic. it means that for the start of the weekend, we could see some wetter weather running down through east coast, but a northerly wind will keep kicking, meaning it will feel noticeably cooler as well as we had towards the weekend. fewer showers but a brisk, cold wind.

this is bbc news. washington in the time of covid. the virus is spreading in the white house, the senate and now the pentagon. the president is back home in isolation but itching to get back on the campaign trail. which is where his opponent, joe biden, already is. with pennsylvania a key battleground state, the democratic candidate is shoring up his support. wall street tanks after president trump tweets that he's ending negotiations with democrats on a pandemic stimulus bill. also in the programme.... boris johnson tells the conservative party's virtual conference that the country will have a brighter, greener future when the pandemic is behind us. and the teenager from texas who only realised she had the longest legs on the planet when she discovered there were no