welcome to bbc news — i'm lewis vaughan jones. our top stories: back to work — donald trump's doctor says he's completed his course of treatment, and could return to public engagements from saturday. in michigan, the fbi arrests six men in an alleged plot to kidnap the state's governor, gretchen whitmer. more fighting and more deaths in the disputed region of nagorno—karabakh, but peace talks are imminent. and the acclaimed us poet louise gluck wins the nobel prize for literature.

hello and welcome. president donald trump's doctor says the president has completed his course of therapy for coronavirus, and could return to public engagements as early as saturday. here's a memo written by the president's doctor, dr sean conley, released by the white house a short time ago. in it, dr conley says that the president has remained stable since returning to the white house and responded extremely well to treatment. for more i'm joined by our washington correspondent, nomia iqbal. what does this memo tell us? it's interesting what the memo doesn't tell us, to be honest. while he says that donald trump is on the road to recovery and should be able to resume his public duties by saturday, it

doesn't really answer any questions on when mr trump was diagnosed with coronavirus or when he starts to get those first symptoms. we don't know, nothing about his first simple terms or his first positive test, we don't even really know if his tested negative, and those of the questions that people want to know. i'm not a medical expert but there will be some scepticism over how the president is able to resume public duties so quickly. i think it's not a coincidence thatis think it's not a coincidence that is soonest that note came out, donald trump's campaign manager bill stepien who is also tested positive released a statement saying the debate next week, there is much drama going on around that, that it be continued, that it should be held in person. the debates commission wanted to hold it virtually because of donald trump having the virus. one

thing we do know is that donald trump of course loves the rallies, the campaigning, being out there in person. he will certainly want to be out there, and that he is trailing on the polls. he will obviously feel he needs to do something to move the dial on that. that's right. in fact, move the dial on that. that's right. infact, donald move the dial on that. that's right. in fact, donald trump was released from hospital pretty soon after getting coronavirus and maintains he is in good health, is recovering, released a video today appealing to the seniors, which he called his favourite people in the world, and touted his belief that this experimental drug he is on, regeneron, has cured him effectively speaking but yes, he wants to be out there on the campaign trail. next week was a town hall vent and he said he wanted to do it in person, joe biden pulled out eventually, so now we are in a

situation where we don't know if it's going to go ahead and i'm sure we will get an updated some point. there is another debate to be had at some point towards the end of the month but these debates, it's getting close now. we are less than four weeks away from election day and most americans have made up their minds at this stage. thank you, the pace of the new cycle out there means i'm surei the new cycle out there means i'm sure i will be speaking to you in the next couple of hours. staying in the us, 13 men have been charged with an alleged plot to kidnap the governor of the us state of michigan, gretchen whitmer. the fbi says the plot involved six of the men abducting the governor and taking her to a remote location to put her on trial for treason. governor whitmer has accused president trump of encouraging far—right groups by — as she put it — fraternising with domestic terrorists. just last week, the president of the united states stood

before the american people and refused to condemn white supremacists and hate groups like these two michigan militia groups. "stand back and stand by," he told them. "stand back and stand by." hate groups heard the president's words not as a rebuke, but as a rallying cry, as a call to action. when our leaders speak, their words matter. they carry weight. when our leaders meet with, encourage or fraternise with domestic terrorists, they legitimise their actions and they are complicit. we can now speak to irish times' journalist stephen starr who met members of the wolverine michigan militia corps last year. he's in dayton, ohio. thank you for coming on the

programme. so this group that we clearly don't know much about, as in the rest of the world, you've actually been in person to meet them last year. what did you make of them when you saw them up close? just to be 100% clear, this group that has been accused is called the wolverine watchmen and the organisation i met was the michigan militia core watchmen. the link between them is not clear although we can surmise that it clear although we can surmise thatitis clear although we can surmise that it is unlikely there are two separate michigan militia groups both with the name wolverine and the title. i met them at an annual open event they were holding at a restau ra nt, they were holding at a restaurant, in a village called

howell which is half—an—hour from where two of the people we re from where two of the people were arrested last night in relation to the plot, were found. a disparate group of people, i would say, about 20 people, i would say, about 20 people in total, a number of them there for the first time, there were new people who would join the meeting, and were happy with the state of —— unhappy with the state of the country. some of the people we re very country. some of the people were very cagey, not interested in speaking to the press. if i could split them into groups, there were a section of people, there were a section of people, the organisers who spoke about tactics in terms of camping or in terms of outdoor activities and things like that. there was one gentleman was a military vetera n one gentleman was a military veteran who quite outspoken as well and about the state of political leadership. on that point, that grievance in the state of political leadership, given that, how surprised or shocked were you when you heard about this alleged lot to

actually kidnap the governor? it's interesting that you mention that because something that you said, and it wasn't a question i asked, they were unhappy with the state political leadership. in one of the made a comment in relation to taxes or infrastructure around michigan, so to what extent we can make a link, if it's one and the same group, we are not sure, but what we can be certain of is the fact that these expect the state political leadership was on their minds. how seriously did you take them and their grievances at the time? it's difficult to say from meeting a group of people, meeting them for a couple of hours. the purpose of the meeting was to recruit new members, and they would ask the media to come along. and kind of sit in on the conversation. i was sent an email thereafter when i was

sent the link, saying they were very unhappy, and they made the point that they would never speak to the media again. some of the people at this meeting wouldn't give their name and in a letter they said, after they read the article, they wouldn't say who they were, making these comments, so it gives a sense at least that there is something to hide. that's interesting. there are reports of communications on social media, what they assumed were closed groups. that they did manage to be tracked, but the idea of secrecy is being picked up idea of secrecy is being picked up as idea of secrecy is being picked upasa idea of secrecy is being picked up as a team. absolutely. one of the cohort, if we can say, a group of young men, smoke —— spoke very little. 0ne group of young men, smoke —— spoke very little. one of them spoke very little. one of them spoke quite disparagingly about the federal government saying

things like the federal government has weapons, what is the reason the federal government has all these weapons and i can't have them? 0ne gentleman was quite outspoken in that regard. the majority of the young men wouldn't speak to me, wouldn't say who they were, why they had come there at all. stephen, great to talk to you, thank you so much for coming on the programme. we will stress that the men named in this particular court case are innocent until a trial starts. but for the moment, thank you for coming on. there's much more on this story on our website, including this breakdown on what the accused men were planning and a detailed look at us militia groups. just log onto bbc.com/news. let's get some of the day's other news. there has been fresh fighting between azerbaijan and ethnic armenians over the disputed region of nagorno—karabakh ahead of talks involving the us, france and russia,

aimed at securing a ceasefire, and averting a wider war. more than 300 people have died and thousands have been displaced since the latest fighting broke out last month. 0ur international correspondent 0rla guerin reports from the city of goranboy. she the newest victim of a conflict decades old — an azeri woman killed in indiscriminate shelling by armenian forces. but both sides are guilty of that. a mourner cries out, "god, kill the armenians!" the community here steeped in its own pain, just like its enemies across the front line. tourian guliyeva, on the left,

was 63 and a widow. her neighbours deep in shock, just hours after the attack. translation: she was a single woman and she wouldn't leave her house. we were asking her, "come to us, stay with us or go to your relatives." she said, "they won't be able to hit us." but they did, at 6:30am. her sister—in—law is anguished but committed to the fight for nagorno—karabakh. "kara bakh is ours", she tells me. "it was ours and it will be ours."

"0ur sons and brothers are fighting now, and i know they will be "fighting to the end." it has already been a long battle for many here. they were driven from nagorno—karabakh during the war in the early ‘90s. they say it's occupied territory and part of their motherland. there is a real sense here of shock, of grief and of anger. this was a woman killed in her own home, in her own bed. every fresh attack, every new death adds to the bitterness here, which already stretches back for decades. as tourian was buried, russia, france and the us were pushing for a ceasefire. for now, there is no sign of that, no respite for those who mourn, here or inside nagorno—karabakh. 0rla guerin, bbc news, goranboy, azerbaijan. stay with us on bbc news. still to come: the debate over the debate. it won't be virtual,

but will the next us presidential match—up still go ahead? this was a celebration by people who were relishing their freedom. they believe everything's going to be different from now on. they think their country will be respected in the world once more, as it used to be, before slobodan milosevic took power. the dalai lama, the exiled spiritual leader of tibet, has won this year's nobel peace prize. as the parade was reaching its climax, two grenades exploded and a group of soldiersjumped from a military truck taking part in the parade, and ran towards the president, firing from kalashnikov automatic rifles. after 437 years, the skeletal ribs of henry viii's tragic warship emerged. but even as divers worked to buoy her up, the mary rose went through another

heart—stopping drama. i want to be the people's governor. i want to represent everybody. i believe in the people of california. this is bbc news. the latest headlines: donald trump's doctor says he's completed his course of treatment for coronavirus, and could return to public engagements from saturday. in michigan, the fbi arrests six men in an alleged plot to kidnap the state's governor, gretchen whitmer. well, as we heard earlier, there are many question marks over the likelihood of a second presidential debate between president trump and his democratic challenger, joe biden. the plan was to hold a virtual

debate because of mr trump's treatment for covid—i9, but the president said that would be a waste of time. we'll have more on how the debate schedule is likely to pan out, but first here's our north america editor jon sopel on last night's vice—presidential debate. applause never before has a vp debate been so important, and there's a reason for that. with both presidential candidates well into their 70s, the old phrase about the number two being only a heartbeat away from the oval office has never seemed more relevant. in the debate between mike pence and kamala harris, covid was centre stage, although divided by plexiglass. the american people have witnessed what is the greatest failure of any presidential administration in the history of our country. but i want the american people to know that, from the very first day, president donald trump has put the health of america first. whatever the vice president is claiming the administration has done, clearly, it hasn't worked. but when you say what the american people have done

over these last eight months hasn't worked, that's a great disservice to the sacrifices the american people have made. this debate had none of the histrionics and shouting of last week, in what felt like a 0—0 draw. to be honest, the most exciting bit came when a very black fly landed in mike pence's very white hair, and stayed there. president trump and i stand with you. it ended with this trail—ahead. the second presidential debate is next week on october 15th — a town hall—style debate in miami. but this morning the independent commission that runs the presidential debates ruled that next week's encounter should be virtual. the president's reaction — a furious "i' no, i'm not going to waste my time on a virtual debate. that's not what debating's all about. you sit behind a computer and do a debate — it's ridiculous. and then they cut you off whenever they want. joe biden, who has agreed to a virtual debate, was today throwing up his hands. we don't know what the president's going to do — he changes his mind

every second. so, for me to comment on that now would be irresponsible. i think i'm going to follow the commission's recommendations. if he goes off and he's going to have a rally, i'll... i don't know what i'll do. the strategy of the president pre—illness had been to change the subject away from the pandemic. now he seems to be embracing it as a gift. i think this was a blessing from god, that i caught it. this was a blessing in disguise. jon sopel, bbc news, washington. you code eight out of nine us elections correctly and he would say nine out of nine ona and he would say nine out of nine on a technicality. we will give you the 100% record because we haven't got time to go into details. you very much for coming on the programme. we will get to your predictions,

they are remarkable, in a second. i want to get your thoughts on these debates, the fa ct thoughts on these debates, the fact they are being postponed, delayed, virtual, not virtual, happening, not happening, what you make of it all? i cannot understand why donald trump wa nts to understand why donald trump wants to avoid the debates. looking at conventional analysis, it is way behind. he needs to change the game. avoiding debates won't do it. and by the way, there is a precedent in essence for a virtual debate 60 years ago, one of the kennedy— nixon debates was held virtually. nixon, kennedy and the moderator were at remote locations and they had a screen with the two of them together, certainly there is less opportunity to interrupt and bully, if that is what trump wa nts to bully, if that is what trump wants to do, but they did not serve him well in the first debate. interesting for -- interesting. how much influence do you think these debates can

have? none at all. there is no predictive value in the debates. hillary clinton 13 debates. hillary clinton 13 debates according to scientific polls quite handily, she still lost. barack polls quite handily, she still lost. ba rack 0bama polls quite handily, she still lost. barack 0bama was trounced in the first debate in 2012 by mitt romney, but he won. john kerry, be george w bush in the 2004 debates, he lost. i am not against debates, they are important moments, but in terms of predicting elections, forget it. let's go to your predictions than. you predicted donald trump were not many people dead, and you got a little memento for your prediction. indeed. would you like to see it? yes, go on, show it to us. yes, indeed. this is a note that donald trump wrote to me after his election on the washington post, where i predicted his win. as you can see, it says

"professor, congrats. good call." and in big sharpie letters, donaldj call." and in big sharpie letters, donald j trump. wonderful. thank you very much for showing us that. the thing is, he is right. it was a good call. did you feel quite lonely making that prediction for —— four years ago? were you nervous about it? i'm 73, i have been doing this for 40 yea rs, have been doing this for 40 years, i get butterflies in my stomach every four years. unlike nate silver, i don't give you probabilities, i tell you who is going to win. nate silver says there is a 71% chance hillary clinton will win, then when trump wins he says, see, i told you. 29% chance, just can't be wrong. i tell you, predicting trump last time did not make me popular in 90% democratic washington, dc. but i have a different prediction this time. shall we

go through it? what is your prediction this time? my prediction this time? my prediction is this time donald trump will become the first sitting president since george hw bush in 1992 to lose a real action bed. it is based on my 13 keys to the white house, which gauge the strength and performance of the party in power. and if six or more of the keys go against trump, he isa the keys go against trump, he is a predicted loser. well, at the end of 2019, he had only four keys against him, but then we had his ineffective response to the pandemic and to the cries for social and racial justice, which cost him three more keys. the short—term term economic key, measured by an election year recession, the long—term economic care, the cost of the nation's growth, antisocial unrest gear because of what is raging across the land. the is now seven keys, one more than needed to protect

his defeat, never before in the history of the united states has the party holding the white house ever suffered such a dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune injust dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune in just a dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune injust a matter of dramatic and sudden reversal of fortune in just a matter of a few months. never happened before. alan, absolutely fascinating. will you promise to come back on after the election to see if you make it ten out of ten? absolutely. i am always willing to take the accolades and my losses if i am wrong. alan, thank you. take care. we will leave the us and move on. four hostages have flown into bamako airport in mali after being released by their islamist captors. they received a jubilant welcome from family and supporters. french aid worker sophie petronin was welcomed by her son. she had been held

almost four years. malian opposition politician, soumaila cisse and two others, both italians, were also freed. it's not known how they gained their liberty, but it follows the release of more than a hundred islamic militants at the weekend. now, one of america's leading poets — louise gluck — has been awarded this year's nobel prize for literature. the swedish academy praised her unmistakable poetic voice and its austere beauty — but added that her work was also full of biting wit. she's only the sixteenth woman to win the prize. the bbc‘s tim allman reports. it came to me one night as i was falling asleep, that i had finished with those amorous adventures to which i had long been a slave. finished with love, my heart murmured. the words of louise gluck, read by the poet herself. a writer

exploring familiar themes like love, ageing, death and humanity. her work had already won plenty of awards, but now it would win the biggest of them of. the nobel prize in literature for 2020 is awarded to the american poet, louise gluck, for her unmistakable poetic voice that with austere beauty makes individual existence universal. louise gluck has published more than a dozen works of poetry and essays. her voice described as unmistakable and compromising and candid, always striving for clarity. this is a great resource when treats grey topics with radical change, a lea p forward topics with radical change, a leap forward is made out of deep loss. presented with a national humanities medal by paracki national humanities medal by pa racki 0bama national humanities medal by paracki 0bama in 2016, was said to be surprised by the award ——

barack 0bama. she was already the us poet laureate. you can reach me on twitter. i'm @lvaughanjones. hello there. when the sun came out yesterday, we saw 19 celsius, temperatures above where they should be. and they have been for much of the week. but we will swing now to feeling colder for the next few days, probably with temperatures dipping a little bit below where they should be. we will still see some sunshine like we saw on thursday between the showers, this was the rain that moved away, the showers came in, but this next little area of low pressure comes in, giving some quite heavy rain actually through the night as it crosses scotland, northern ireland into the northern half of england and wales. you can see the wraparound here, the area of low pressure, a brisk north—westerly bringing heavy showers, frequent showers following that rain. so, as we go through the day, there will be early brightness in the south and east, but the rain will eventually reach here by lunchtime. still some heavy rain upon that weather front and we still have

that wraparound left around the area of low pressure and rain in the north—east of scotland, northern isles and elsewhere, sunny spells and showers. quite a brisk breeze, gusty near those showers, and temperatures will be down, it is colder air, so we will do well to reach about 13—14 in the south, more like eight to 10 degrees in the north. some of these showers could be heavy with hail and thunder. they will continue through the night into saturday morning as well with further bands of showers going southwards, but the air is colder, so where we see the clear spells, it will turn quite chilly as temperatures fall fairly close to freezing in the glens of scotland. so, it's because we have this cold air mass coming down on that north—westerly breeze. but again, we have high pressure to the west and that will tend to start to see the showers easing away through the second half of the weekend, but we're going to keep a close eye on this area of low pressure, as always it's going to include the risk of showers or even into next week some longer spells of rain, but for saturday, bands of showers will make their way southwards on that north—north—westerly airstream, probably more showers in northern and western areas, but they could at times fall further east and again, temperatures as on friday, well down, except in shelter.

13 or 14 if you shelter from that northerly breeze. and that wind is still with us on sunday, but probably lighter, the high pressure starting to build in from the west, probably fewershowers, but again, always going to be more of a chance near the low pressure in the north sea, so closer to the eastern parts of england and wales. so, into next week, some uncertainty on where that area of low pressure is going to go. as ever, we will keep you updated.

this is bbc news. the headlines: donald trump's doctor says the president has completed his course of therapy for coronavirus and could return to public engagements as early as saturday. in a memo, dr sean conley said the president has remained stable since returning to the white house and responded extremely well to treatment. the democratic governor of the us state of michigan has accused president trump of encouraging right—wing militia groups after 13 men were charged with an alleged plot to kidnap her. in a statement, gretchen whitmer said that when leaders fraternise with domestic terrorists, they legitimise their actions. there has been fresh fighting between azerbaijan and ethnic armenians over the disputed region of nagorno—karabakh ahead of talks involving the us, france and russia aimed at securing a ceasefire and averting a wider war. more than 300 people have died since the fighting broke out last month.