the headlines: the white house doctor says president trump is no longer a transmission risk to others after he delivered a speech from the balcony in his first public event since being treated in hospital for coronavirus. the statement did not say whether he tested negative. hours after a ceasefire came into force in nagorno—karabakh, there are reports that the main city has come under shell fire. the truce between azeri and armenian forces came into effect at noon local time, although some violations have since been reported by both sides. amid a rise in coronavirus infections across much of europe new or tighter restrictions are being introduced in several countries. the spanish government has ordered a 15—day state of emergency to bring down infection rates in the capital. restrictions there will be enforced by the police. now on bbc news — dateline london.

hello and welcome to dateline london. i am geeta guru—murthy. it has become the new conventional wisdom that the polls cannot be trusted. in the us the latest polls give joe biden a large lead, as much as 16 points in the popular vote at the last count. perhaps the unwritten story is that the polls may be right. if so then we may be underestimating the scale of a biden victory. in 1980 ronald reagan won a victory over then jimmy carter taking 44 seats to president carter's 6 seats. the spilt in popular opinion was then 51%—41% to reagan, and that is in similar territory to the split now between biden and trump where biden is at around 52% to trump on 42%. the president may yet

recover, of course, which is what he appears to have done from the coronavirus this week. a mere six days after contracting the virus the president is back at work, proclaiming that he has a cure he wants to roll out across america. handling covid is not that easy, though. there have been signs of revolt against restrictions this week in brooklyn in the us, in israel, in madrid and in the north of england, to namejust a handful of places. to make sense of these difficult times, i?m joined today by agnes poirier of l'express in france and jeffrey kofman, the north american writer and broadcaster. and here in the studio at a safe social distance is my colleague, clive myrie. thank you all for joining us today. as they stand, the polls suggest a comprehensive victory for biden in the electoral college of something like 279 to 125. can that really be right?

jeffrey? it is pretty clear that if the election was held today it would be right and it would be said as you said in your intro, it would be much stronger than that. if it was today, it would be reasonable to expect that biden would have a landslide in the complicated electoral college which determines who wins the presidency in the us. that 16 point poll you talk about, the cnn poll, is the largest gap but almost every poll in the last couple of weeks puts biden more than ten points ahead of trump. it is hard to see how trump can turn this around, in fact he has had one of the worst weeks of his presidency. the debate last week was a disaster for him, his bullying did not win him fans and the way he has handled the coronavirus, seeing himself above standard health protocols and dismissing reasonable behaviours has alienated so many more people and in fact what we are seeing now on the polls is a larger spread than ever.

agnes, of course we have been burned by the polls before in the uk and the us and this is still very febrile. could there be the cliche of shy voters still out there, there are lots of trump flags we know across the us, it is dangerous to call it, isn't it? yes, and the margin of error can go either way. it could be a joe biden landslide victory but it could be a narrow trump win. there are a few things that are very positive, for instance the number, it is almost 8 million of american voters who have already cast their ballot by mail and that is the highest ever number at this point in the election cycle. that is one thing. there are little signs that on a personal level at least, joe biden is extremely popular with a very key part of the electorate, that is to say the over—655. that was the case with trump against hillary clinton. we are likely to see a joe biden victory, but we have to be very careful.

also, there is one thing i would like to do, because covering trump, as a political commentator, the last four years have felt so toxic and now it is literally toxic for people going to the white house, we have seen workers in their protective suits, sanitising the white house, if only they could sanitise the whole us elections! and us politics. i think it would be good perhaps to project ourselves into the future and to think about the 4th of november and to see what a trump victory or a biden victory could actually mean for the rest of the world. perhaps we will do that slightly later

in the programme. absolutely we will come back to that in a moment. i want to bring in clive myrie, obviously people could not believe that trump could win last time around and he did, he clearly wants to focus on the economy at least in part, he has been derailed by the pandemic, will his base give him some sympathy on that account? there is a solid 35 heading up to 40% who will back the president no matter what and they see him as the man who has taken on the interest that they do not like, whether it is liberals or the left or in some cases african—americans, foreigners, immigrants... but that is something that they value and donald trump reaches out to those people and he gives them what they want. this election is not over until it is over, there is no question about that and we have to remember that donald trump is an incredible campaigner. what he needs is the other side of the argument, those people who are soft biden supporters, they are not that enthused with him, a lot of people who are not, frankly, but they do see him obviously as an alternative to donald trump, but many are not enthused enough potentially to bother voting at all. what donald trump needs to do and we will see that

with his white house appearance later today, we will see that next week with, he says, with his rallies which will kick off again in florida and we will see him beginning to reach out and i think he has probably learned some lessons, it might be tricky to say that, but i suspect he may have learned some lessons over the last few weeks that he has to go beyond his base, he has to start speaking in more emollient terms. but they've pulled out funding in places like the mid west, wisconsin, suggesting he is trying to shift back to promote his base. the base is the bedrock ofany campaign.

now, there are many people who are in the democratic alliance who are not that keen on kamala harris because of her time as a prosecutor in california for instance, people who are not keen onjoe biden because they do not see him as left—wing enough. if they perhaps are the ones who do not come out and donald trump manages to secure his base, then he has still got a fighting chance. it is fascinating, isn't it, agnes, the turnout question in america, as much as it dominates global interest, only about half the voters show up and that will be a key issue. if we look at the vice presidential debate, how much does kamala harris bring people in? given the age of the key candidates, the vice presidential candidates matter this time, don't they? kamala harris is a left of centre, she is a centrist and so isjoe biden, now as clive is saying, they are not left enough for some of the voters, then good luck to america.

the turnout is key, absolutely. when you think, compared to the presidential elections in france where usually the turnout is in the high 805, of course it is not the same system, but still you would think that americans should care, especially after those last four years. let me be slightly optimistic, i am hoping that at least 60%, that would be good that the americans care to cast their ballots, because otherwise, the whole world is going to be impacted. jeff, i know you have been following the polls closely, and the overall numbers for the democrat party, does kamala harris bring in the african caribbean vote, the indian vote, that is a part of her personal heritage,

because there are other factors, the indian americans were quite pleased by the modi trump alliance, she is seen by the african—american community as a prosecutor, which is not helpful? i would not want to overstate the role or the importance of the vice presidential selection in a race like this, this is really all about donald trump and i would disagree with clive‘s comments about trump reaching out, the base is of course critical, but trump continues to pander to his base and has done absolutely nothing to reach beyond and he does not have numbers with the base alone to win this election, he has got to get older people, women, university—educated white men, those three constituencies are critical to win the election for him, it is what he took from hillary clinton last time, numbers that worked in his favour. everything he has done in the last two weeks and really the last four years has alienated those groups and i do not see any sign of him pivoting in these last 2a days before november three and putting himself in a position where he is going to suddenly get this stampede of people and as agnes pointed out, a number of people, a good percentage of people

have already voted, but i think the sobering number in the poll is that nine out of ten americans have already made up their mind and there are very few people now to be persuaded to change the outcome of this election. what we really need to look at and we should be careful about over—estimating the accuracy of the polls, they were off in 2016 and i think it is fair to say, the social science of polling learns from its mistakes and if you look at the key website, the key places that amassed this data, 538.com, the new york times upshot, there is a broad consensus of where these polls are taking, even if the factors that led to the mistakes of 2016 were put in place. this is really biden‘s to lose with the debate delayed,

it is unclear how many debates we will have, how is trump going to get a broad message out to the american people that will actually change minds? it is pretty hard... if biden wins, by how much, if it is narrow, it could be very ugly, a replay of 2000 and the florida recount but on a much more acrimonious scale. agnes we will come back to you for a quick look and what this could mean, but clive, a right to reply there. certainly those on the trump side would hope that he has learned some lessons over the last three or four weeks. his poll numbers have sunk to some of the lowest levels of his presidency and it has been a challenging time for him and he is looking at defeat straight in the face. if there is ever going to be

a change in his personality, it would have to be now and i think his team have made it clear that he needs to be a bit more scripted, he needs to start reaching out, this is what they are telling him behind the scenes and perhaps covid has helped him realise that he could be leaving the white house in three or four months' time and now is the time to try and make an effort to get those people outside the base that he frankly has not paid much attention to for so long. it does not look like he is changing, agnes, your thoughts and the rest of the world is watching this incredibly closely, what does france and europe want? if trump wins, i think we will see the us leaving nato, leaving south korea, afghanistan, china filling a much bigger role in the world and europe to fend for itself,

which is not necessarily a bad thing. ifjoe biden is elected, no matter how much we would like to go back to the world we knew four years ago, before covid and trump, this is not going to happen, even ifjoe biden is elected. because american society has changed and the world has changed. of course joe biden will probably take the us back into the paris agreements on climate change, back into the iranian deal, but i suspect he is going to be a quite tough president in terms of trade relations with europe, with china and we will not go back to the world order that we had set after the second world war. it is a new generation in power, joe biden is not that new generation but the american administration is. i think it would be a mistake

for europe to think, we are getting the america of before trump, no trump has changed the world and we will now have to take it from there. fascinating. we will be talking more about that in the coming days. well president trump this week returned to the white house "don't let it dominate you, dopn‘t be afraid of it. last month rishi sunak the uk chancellor told us to live without fear. are they right and are they nodding towards or even partly responsible for the types of revolts we are seeing against restrictions? agnes, is president macron facing revolts against the closure of cafes in paris or has he deflected blame by devolving power on this? first of all, i can reassure

you that cafe culture is not dead in france and certainly not in paris, my local cafe this morning was open and actually, as you know, if cafes and brasseries can have their kitchen fully functioning and they can still open and they can take part in the tracing system now, which is probably a good thing, because we have found test and tracing pretty challenging, like in the uk. yes, president macron is not on the front line of covid any more, he is putting his prime minister, jean castex, and the health minister olivier veran to actually be on that front line of covid, because president macron goes is very busy on the european front as well. he is leaving it tojean castex, very much a man of the south west, who is going to deal with it and devolve powers. he is very legitimate, jean castex, when he tells marseille and other cities to actually come up with more restrictions, in order to fight covid. all in all, and strangely compared to what we have seen in madrid or even in berlin or in the uk, there is no

rebellion as it were against the new restrictions and they very much, actually, there is a sense that we have to live with covid, to learn how to live with covid and that a few places have been made sacrosanct, they will be —— he is very legitimate, jean castex, when he tells marseille and other cities to actually come up with more restrictions, in order to fight covid. all in all, and strangely compared to what we have seen in madrid or even in berlin or in the uk, there is no rebellion as it were against the new restrictions and they very much, actually, there is a sense that we have to live with covid, to learn how to live with covid and that a few places have been made sacrosanct, they will be the last to close and that is the schools. i think in france, but also in europe, we have discovered that children need to go

to school, they are not the superspreaders that we thought and parents need their children to go to school in order for them to have some sanity and to be able to work and therefore sustain the economy. agnes, i am just going to bring injeff, we need our children to go to school, i second that completely. jeff, i know you have been to canada this summer, who gets the blame for these revolts against the restrictions, is that human nature or the culture of different countries or is it political leadership? i think it is a fascinating question and the answer is all of the above. i think that one of the things that is very clear when you look at where the revolts are and how they are happening is that a lack of clarity and consistency in messaging

really undermines the authority of the government and that is clearly very apparent sitting here in london, where borisjohnson has really never really recovered from coronavirus himself and what it did to his government, saying that he has got his mojo back, i don't think anyone believes it. i don't even know candidly what the rules are, i know i am not meant to go out with more than six people, i do not know how many people in an office are allowed to gather, the rules, it is a quarantine roulette for travellers, what countries are on or off. you see in france and canada, more consistent messaging and therefore more consistent compliance and adherence, there is a culturalfactor, there is no question, you see that profoundly in the us and in israel where we are seeing revolts and uprisings against the government, the government does not have the moral authority over the people and it has been undermined by the mixed messaging and the very

divided society there. it is all of the above and i think here in the uk, there is a real problem, the government does not have a handle on this and all the bluster and promises, the world beating this and 200,000 tests a day that, no one believes that any more and it is really impossible to feel that you should be a good citizen. i have travelled a number of times out of the country and had to quarantine and they don't even check you at the border when you come in through heathrow, it is astonishing, they give you all the right forms, are they going to make sure i do this or that? no, it does not happen and it really is a quarantine, it is a game they are playing of appearing to do the right thing in this country and people are onto it and they are making up their own rules. all governments politically are going to get punished when they face the election if they face a democratic vote,

because handling this has been complex, they are balancing the economy and health, surely we all know the rules and we have to work it out for ourselves, we cannot keep blaming the authorities? there's a certain amount of personal responsibility and a lot of governments are i suppose, erroneously, in some cases, expecting their citizens to do the right thing and where they believe that might not happen, there will be sanctions and we have seen that brought in in the uk, stiff fines if you are not quarantining when you should be and i suppose in defence of boris johnson he would argue and the government would argue that this is an unprecedented situation and governments all over the world are having trouble dealing with this. the plaudits being levelled at the germans and president macron in the last five or six months, spain, italy, we are seeing an increase in the infections in all those countries now

and obviously, compare britain to the united states, nowhere near as bad as that. we don't know whether we can totally trust the numbers. they have clamped down very hard. but india, the next second most populous country on earth, the numbers are skyrocketing. governments around the world are having trouble dealing with an unprecedented event and they are having trouble finding their feet and it's taking time, but borisjohnson and the government here would argue that they are now talking to local authorities more and have extended the furlough scheme, which during the summer saved hundreds of thousands ofjobs and there are things they have got right. it is now two thirds, not 80% but they have managed to keep businesses afloat and in some parts of the world, that has not happened. clive, thank you. finally in the desperate search for something to lighten the mood as winter sets in at least in the northern hemisphere what has caught your eye this week? agnes, tell me, have you found something to cheer us all up? yes, i have just returned

from venice to look at the mose, as they call it, the flood barrier that they have been building for decades, at least it feels like it and i don't know if you remember, there was so much corruption, people behind bars, but it worked. it was an historical day last weekend for venice, because the high tide was prevented to flood venice and it was only a year ago that it was almost two metres high of water completely inundated the historical city. yes, it is a huge relief, huge satisfaction, venice is going to be dry. wonderful, can you compete with venice and paris within the space of a couple of days? i am going to go on a different direction and i just wanted to say between the four of us,

but i have to say, that i have to tip my hat to the producers of the great british bake—off and i know it was bbc, now channel 4, but in the midst of this chaos, there is something very comforting about the fact that they have managed to create a bubble to build a programme together and have the kind of delightful joy and i think the best of british gamesmanship coming through, it is not a vicious nasty competitive show, it is just good wholesome fun and it is done with a sense of humour. there is something really reassuring that you can turn on your television once a week right now and see this slightly inane but playful and really distracting tv show continue as it has for the last decade. that is lovely, lovely to hear. my brother is a channel 4 person, you are allowed to plug them. clive, what has put a smile on yourface? i totally agree with that,

great bbc programme completely nicked by channel 4, but that is how it happens. i will go with the queen's birthday honours list, usually you get political flunkies, you get donors, you get the flunkies of the political world who get these gongs and this year, because of covid, it is nurses, social workers and people like marcus rashford who managed to convince the government to change policy and continue free school meals for 1.3 million children. this is the best birthday honours list for a long time. wonderful to hear that, clive, i completely agree. agnes we were talking earlier about music and i personally am missing seeing live opera and i was thrilled to see the ballet start on stage at the royal opera house and you are telling me that in france they have managed to keep live arts performances alive a bit more. that is what i was going to say, the second sacrosanct places in france apart

from the schools and i think the last to close and in a massive lockdown it is theatres, museums, concert halls and cinemas, because it is places where we do not talk, so we do not spread the virus so much, it is also so vital. films, literature, also music is what has sustained most of us during the lockdown. we need to help the creative industries and france is doing it, italy, germany, but i wish the uk was supporting its artists more, because we need them desperately. jeff, one live thing you would like to see? i would love to go back to live theatre, i agree. i live in london, this is the capital, the world capital of great theatre, and it pains me and i think agnes is right. the hundreds of thousands

of people whose livelihoods depend on this and the skill sets that has been built up over generations, that are just languishing right now, it is devastating and it is not all going to come back and we have got to find ways to bring it back. if we can go to pubs and sit in a pub in london, why can't we sit in a theatre, there has to be a way to do this. i fear for what will happen if this goes to next summer. i went to covent garden for my last live thing and i am so glad i got to that before it all shut down. thanks so much to all three of my guests this week — agnes poirer, jeffrey kofman, and clive myrie. shaun is here next week,see you soon, bye for now.

hello. saturday evening may have brought some fiery skies across some parts of the uk, but perhaps a sign of something drier and brighter for sunday. that will be the case for many. still stays on the chilly side, though, and a definite cool start. but, whilst there could be a touch of frost in 1—2 rural areas, a lot more sunshine around. a bit more in the way of cloud though, once we get into northern ireland, wales, southwest and northwest midlands, a few showers here. a few of them during the afternoon. north of scotland, eastern districts of england, though, showers continue through the day, and it's here where the breeze will be the strongest — making it feel cool once again. but whilst it will be cool across many central and western areas, with a bit more sunshine, lighter winds than saturday, won't to feel quite as chilly as it did. temperatures will drop quite quickly as we go into sunday evening, particularly

through central and eastern areas where skies are clearest. cloud, though, rain rolls in towards the west, that will lift the temperatures into monday morning, double figures for some. but expect cloud and rain to spread eastwards across most parts as we go through monday, strengthening winds into tuesday, rain for england and wales especially, and staying chilly.

welcome to bbc news. i'm lewis vaughan jones. our top stories: the white house doctor says president trump is no longer a transmission risk to others, but hasn't said whether he tested negative for covid—19. his rivaljoe biden says he's tested negative and tells the president to encourage mask wearing and social distancing. the main city in nagorno—karabakh comes under shell fire, hours after a ceasefire between armenia and azerbaijan takes effect. in brazil, more than 150,000 thousand people have now died from covid—19 — the second highest number after the united states.