this is bbc news. the headlines at 3.45pm. the chancellor unveils a new rescue dealforjobs, promising more support for businesses struggling under coronavirus restrictions. we are seeing areas move into tier 2 restrictions and that is having a particular impact on hospitality businesses, which is why we're keen to support those businesses. last quarter, we saw a record rise in redundancies. the chancellor could have done much more if he had acted sooner. the health secretary announces that coventry, stoke—on—trent and slough will move into the tier 2 "high" coronavirus level on saturday. finding out why some people are more likely to die from covid— 19 should focus on more than just ethnicity, urges a government scientific advisor.

you join us for a special programme ahead of a downing street briefing on the day that billions of pounds of extra help for firms and workers, across the uk, hit by the coronavirus restrictions, have been announced by the chancellor. thejob support scheme will pay out considerably more than originally planned, where companies are not legally required to close. rishi sunak is doubling the taxpayer subsidy for employers in thejobs support scheme after a growing clamour from firms in tier 2 areas. employers will now have to pay for a minimum of 20% of a worker's wages. that's down from 55%. this means the government will now fund 62% of pay for hours not worked.

150,000 grants of up to £2,100 for hotels, restaurants, & b&bs will be given as part of a new scheme for businesses not obliged to close. they'll be paid monthly and be backdated. here's our economics correspondent andrew verity, a normally busy restaurant area under tier 2 restrictions. the outlets here may be open but business is so quiet, many are struggling to survive on a fraction of their normal income. in stirchley, in the west midlands, this once bustling microbrewery normally sells barrels to pubs which, under the new restrictions, are not buying like they used to. it's trying to adapt by selling cans directly to customers but its income has been tanking. as soon as we started to see things beginning to return to normal, back to profitability, birmingham was designated a tier 2 area and our revenue was hit massively.

restaurants like this one in tier 2 or tier 3 areas have a problem. they can't claim on the scheme that pays two thirds of wages because they are not legally required to shut, but because of the rule that says two households can't mix indoors, they're seeing a sharp drop in business which makes it harder and harder to keep their staff on. after businesses and unions warned many firms could go under, the chancellor, rishi sunak, met business leaders today to announce yet another change to the government's job support schemes. i've always said that we will adapt and evolve our support as the health situation changes and that's clearly what's happened. over the past few weeks we are seeing areas move into tier 2 restrictions and that's having a particular impact on hospitality businesses which is why we are keen to support those businesses with extra cash grants and a more generous job support scheme, helping them keep those employees in work. thejob support scheme announced a month ago helps firms to cut

the hours staff work rather than letting them go by topping up wages. previously the government paid a third of the hours not worked. now the government will pay 62% of hours not worked with employers only paying 5%. under the scheme announced a month ago, staff would have had to work at least a third of their normal hours. now they will only have to work a fifth of their normal hours or one day a week. the government's critics say it should have happened much sooner. last quarter we saw a record rise in redundancies. the chancellor could have done much more if he had acted sooner. and now we see yet another last—minute move. in manchester, it's not seen as a coincidence that support for businesses suddenly improves after london goes into tier 2 restrictions. why now? you know, why has it taken london to go into tier 2 for tier 2 support to become a national issue? that's the question, isn't it?

it's the government's fourth change to business support schemes in as many months and a tacit admission that thejob support scheme announced less than a month ago didn't balance enough government support against the financial damage done by antivirus measures. in the economic fallout of the pandemic the facts have changed and the government's changed its mind. 0ur economics correspondent andy verity is here now. the furlough scheme, which has been running for awhile now is coming to an end of this month, so how will things change as a result of this? the whole jobs things change as a result of this? the wholejobs support scheme was all about what happened when the furlough scheme came to an end, and thatis furlough scheme came to an end, and that is a week and a half away now. this changes the arithmetic for employers considering making people redundant because they have much less income than they used to because of the restrictions. for example, if a firm has 20% of its previous income, it can now shorten the hours of the employees it has, rather than getting rid of 80%

young, shorten them so they work a day a week each, and then claim back most of the money, nearly two thirds, that would cover the rest of the week from the government. that tilts the balance massively. previously, the scheme announced a month ago, it was required that employers will have to work a 33% of the time, so making a third of your normal revenue for it to work as a company, and also pay in addition about 22% of the hour is not worked, so an about 22% of the hour is not worked, so an employer might have to pay more than 50% even when their employer is only working a third of the time. that didn't create enough incentive, and it was said back then to deter people from letting people go on making people redundant and the criticism that the labour party has made that if you had announced this month ago when we all said this was not generous enough, you might have many redundancies. are there people who are still left out of this new scheme? this is such an

important point. the people left out of this new scheme, and also left out for the last seven months. some of them have had no income at all for six or seven months and they are desperate. it's affecting their mental health and we are having people with suicide ideation, and there is a serious mental health crisis going on with people denuded of their living and given no support. among them are freelancers who set themselves up our limited companies, paying themselves in dividends. there are other people excluded by the various other rules for the support scheme put in place to try and prevent people taking the mickey and claiming when they shouldn't, but nevertheless excluding some people who might be deserving of support who say, we have paid our taxes the same as everybody else, so why aren't we getting the same level of support? andy. many thanks. let's get more on that now with andrew sentance who's a senior adviser to cambridge econometrics and former member of bank of england's monetary policy committee.

good afternoon. what is your reaction to this package that the chancellor has announced ? reaction to this package that the chancellor has announced? it's clearly a n chancellor has announced? it's clearly an improvement on what we had before, buti clearly an improvement on what we had before, but i think there has been a disappointing change in government policy over the last couple of months compared with where we we re couple of months compared with where we were in march and april when we had the most intense lockdown, and actually the government is trying to hold back money rather than provide support for the economy and i think thatis support for the economy and i think that is rather disappointing. so, yes, there is some help for various groups but still some groups in the economy who are not benefiting from this package, like the self employed, as andy mentioned, and i think we need to have a different

approach. actually, ithink think we need to have a different approach. actually, i think this winter may well be worse for the economy than the period that we saw in april and may, so we need to prepare for that and the government should be ready for that. so, fairly lu kewa rm should be ready for that. so, fairly lukewarm praise from you, actually. is that because you feel that the chancellor should have acted sooner? well, i think his winter economic package was a bit of a damp squib. i think independent economists came up with a figure of around 5 billion, what it was worth, and i think most independent economist thought ten, 15, 20 billion would be much more suitable. now, more of that money is being put on the table, but you can see this approach in the negotiations that had taken place with manchester and some of the regional areas. it's not helpfulfor

the government to be holding back on a little bit of money now. government borrowing is going to go up government borrowing is going to go up anyway, up to very high levels. we should do what is necessary to support the economy now and then we should sort out the problem is when the economy has recovered and we are on top of this virus, then we should worry about the financial consequences. that is interesting because that is the big question, how is all of this going to be paid for? but you think that is a question we should not try to answer now? i don't think it's a question we should try and answer now. the uk government is a very reliable borrower in the financial markets, and we know that we can borrow, in difficult circumstances, as we are borrowing now so as long as we can pay back the money, or pay the interest on the money, we will be 0k, and that is what we should be

focusing on a year or two down the track, but at the moment we should be focusing on getting through the crisis. 0k, we will have to leave it there. thank you so much. that is there. thank you so much. that is the senior adviser to cambridge econometrics. thank you. the nhs test and trace system in england has recorded its lowest weekly success rate since it began in may. in the seven days up to the 14th of october, fewer than 60 per cent of the close contacts of people who'd tested positive for covid—19 were reached. and only 15 per cent of those tested at local and regional testing sites received their result within 2a hours. downing street has confirmed it is holding talks with officials in nottinghamshire and west yorkshire about moving the regions into the highest tier of coronavirus restrictions. it comes as more parts of the country face tougher measures. the health secretary, matt hancock, told mps that stoke—on—trent, coventry and slough will move into the high coronavirus level on saturday. today, i'd like to update the house on some further changes that we are

making. unfortunately, we're seeing rising rates of infection in stoke—on—trent, in coventry and in slough. in all of these areas, there are over 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling around every fortnight and we're seeing a concerning increase of cases among the over—60s. so, we've agreed in partnership with local leaders to move these areas into the high local alert level, coming into force at one minute past on saturday. the central change is that people cannot now meet other households socially indoors. this applies in any setting, at home or in a restaurant or any other venue. the rule of six still applies to any outdoor setting, and although you may continue to travel to open venues, you should reduce the number ofjourneys where possible. i'd like to thank local leaders in these areas for the work that they've done, for their co—operation, and i can assure the people of

stoke—on—trent, of coventry and of slough, that we will support you all the way through, including with the business support that the chancellor announced earlier today, for all areas, with a high local alert level. and we're also formally beginning discussions with warrington about moving into the very high alert level, due to a continuing rise in cases there. 0ur political correspondent jess parker is at westminster. we are waiting for that downing street briefing with the prime minister and chancellor, and the senior adviser, but minister and chancellor, and the senioradviser, but while minister and chancellor, and the senior adviser, but while we wait for that, presumably there will be questions about quite why the chancellor has waited until now to offer this level of support. yes, and the accusation has immediately come from the labour party that there were holes in the scheme that he announced back in late september that he has now updated today, and that he has now updated today, and

that the government should have acted sooner, and it's been a central charge of the labour party has been making in recent months. rishi sunak has been saying that the government is right to adapt to the changes as they come, but i think what this tells us, because it is just a month since he announced the winter economy plan, and now he's updating the jobs winter economy plan, and now he's updating thejobs support scheme before it has kicked in in november, is that clearly the government is not in the position it hoped to be in terms of the rate of infection levels, the way in which they are therefore having to close down or curtail parts of the economy, and therefore the kind of support they are having to offer to businesses who are suffering as a result. is it fairto who are suffering as a result. is it fair to assume that the government, the chancellor, assumed that economy would bounce back more than they had? they are interlinked, because of the virus is more prevalent, the economy can't get going. you were just playing the clip from matt hancock, today, who has announced

more areas are moving into tier 2, the high alert level, stoke, coventry and over our living in the two highest tiers of restriction which is a huge proportion of the population who are living under these extra restrictions which has this impact on business, and i think one of the things we will be hearing about today in the press conference will be linking the two things so the fa ct be linking the two things so the fact that rishi sunak has come out with this announcement today, changes to jobs support with this announcement today, changes tojobs support scheme and cash grants as well, and the tiered system which has had a rocky week after the resistance following ten days of talks with greater manchester and the government eventually announcing a new deadline and then imposing a tier 3 restrictions on greater manchester. i'm going to stop you because here they come. good afternoon. i'm very glad to be

joined today not just good afternoon. i'm very glad to be joined today notjust by sir patrick valla nce joined today notjust by sir patrick vallance but by the chancellor, rishi sunak, who is going to tell us more ina rishi sunak, who is going to tell us more in a moment about our latest package to help this country in its battle with covid. and i want to thank rishi sunak for measures that will protect pupils livelihoods and jobs and which will help us to deliver our overwhelming objective of getting the virus under control while keeping pupils in education and keeping the uk economy moving forward. i know that there are some people who say this economic objective is so important that we should stop all measures to control the virus and stop restrictions of any kind on our social lives and on the way we run our businesses. we can't do that, because, alas, the maths is inescapable, we would face many thousands more deaths, and no, to a nswer many thousands more deaths, and no, to answer one commonly posed question, we would not be able to

insulate the elderly and the vulnerable, not in a society with so many multigenerational households, no country has been able to do that. and an uncontrolled expansion in the number of covid patients would mean that the nhs would have even less capacity to treat heart patients and cancer patients and to deal with all our other medical needs. so, that's why we reject that extreme laissez—faire approach. and then there are others who say, on the contrary, that we need now to lock the whole place down, from john 0'groats to land's the whole place down, from john 0'groats to lands end, turn the lights out, shut up shop, close schools and universities and go back to the same kind of lockdown we had in march and april and may. and i have to say, i don't believe that is the right course now, not when the psychological cost of lockdown is well—known to us, the economic cost,

and not when it is being suggested that we might have to perform the same sort of brutal lockdowns again and again in the months ahead. and not when there is such an obvious variation, unlike last time, between different parts of the country. so, that's why we're going for a balanced approach, a middle course, between another national lockdown, and an uncontrolled virus. a regional and local approach, the same approach that is now being followed by some of the countries that are most successful in their fight against the virus. and so to all those who are enduring these restrictions and who had been enduring them for so long, in all parts of the country, i want to repeat my thanks for your bravery,

for your patience and your public spiritedness, and i repeat, there are spiritedness, and i repeat, there a re clear spiritedness, and i repeat, there are clear signs that our collective actions are working. yes, the reproduction rate of the virus is above one, but thanks to the efforts of people of all ages in following the guidance and the rules, the r is about half its natural rate, and if we follow the guidance together, and follow the rules, then we can get it down. and it's precisely because these measures are burdensome that from the beginning, this government has provided unprecedented support to everyone in this country, support worth £200 billion, to look after jobs and livelihoods and business. and as we adjust our campaign to fight the virus, it's right that we

should now produce a new package of support across the country in addition to the specific agreements we've reached with lancashire, merseyside and others. and because it's far, far better to keep business going now, rather than to let those jobs go for ever in a new national lockdown. we will win this fight against covid because we can see that treatments are getting better and medicines are getting better, and testing technologies are getting better, and we've shown before that we can drive r down. and in the meantime, we need to protect jobs, protect livelihoods and put the uk in the strongest position for an economic recovery. i the uk in the strongest position for an economic recovery. i am the uk in the strongest position for an economic recovery. i am going to hand over now to the chancellor, rishi sunak. thank you, prime minister, good afternoon. 0ur rishi sunak. thank you, prime minister, good afternoon. our plan forjobs will support british people

and businesses, wherever they live and businesses, wherever they live and whatever their situation. and just as we have throughout this crisis, we will listen and respond to people is concerns as the circumstances to people is concerns as the ci rcu msta nces evolve. to people is concerns as the circumstances evolve. earlier today, i announced three new measures. first, iam i announced three new measures. first, i am making i announced three new measures. first, iam making ourjob i announced three new measures. first, i am making ourjob support scheme more generous for employers, who can open safely but who are struggling with the impact of restrictions on their business. instead of employees working at least a third of their hours to qualify for support, they will now have to work just qualify for support, they will now have to workjust one day a week. and the government will significantly increase the contribution it makes towards people's wages, with businesses paying much less, just 5%, towards the cost of hours not worked. this is one of the most generous versions ofa is one of the most generous versions of a short time work scheme in the world. it is betterfor of a short time work scheme in the world. it is better for business, but a jobs and better for the

economy. second, we're doubling the value of the self—employed income support grant, from 20% to 40% of average profits, meaning the maximum grant will increase to £3750. and third, we're introducing a new grant scheme for businesses in higher alert level areas, even if they can remain open. businesses in sectors like hospitality, leisure and accommodation will be able to apply to their local authority for cash gra nts to their local authority for cash grants of up to £2100 per month. and these grants will be backdated to august. this means we are being more generous to businesses and places which have been in higher alert levels for longer. this is our plan, a plan forjobs, for businesses, for the regions, for our economy, for the regions, for our economy, for the country, a plan to support the british people. thank you. thanks

very much, rishi. patrick, can we go to you for today's slides, please? yes, cani to you for today's slides, please? yes, can i just to you for today's slides, please? yes, can ijust update you on some of the numbers? this is a slide which i showed you last week, the new numbers come out tomorrow, but it isa new numbers come out tomorrow, but it is a reminder that the number of people in the uk thought to have covid, based on the office for national statistics survey last week, was somewhere between 312000 and 362,000 people over that period. we are expecting the new numbers tomorrow, and this will be higher, i am sure. so, we continue to see an increase in the total number of people with the virus. next slide, please. that is one thing, the prevalence, the number of people with the infection at any one time. the second is the incidence, the numberof the second is the incidence, the number of people with a new infection every day. again, there are infection every day. again, there a re two infection every day. again, there are two numbers there which are from la st are two numbers there which are from last week, which were the estimates looking back from two big studies,

the react study and the ons study. we get the updated ons data tomorrow. but the modelling consensus suggests that between 53000 and 90,000 new infections per day may be occurring. and obviously with that number of infections, you expect to see an increase in hospitalisations as well. so, the numberof hospitalisations as well. so, the number of infections overall across the country continues to increase. next slide, please. this shows the hospital admissions, the yellow bar indicates from a month ago, and you can see an increase in the number of patients admitted to hospital every day with covid, which is up towards 1000 now. and with the numbers of infections, you would expect that to continue to increase. and it is worth remembering that the number of infections leads to hospitalisations a week or two later, and that in turn has the effect of increasing intensive care unit numbers and of course unfortunately the number of people who die as a result of that,

and that will increase a week or two after that. so, we expect to see a delay from the number of infections, through to hospitalisations, through to the very serious consequences, and to death. next slide, please. the number of patients in hospital with covid has increased again. the yellow bar shows a month ago, you can see the number of patients across the uk in hospital with covid. ijust across the uk in hospital with covid. i just want across the uk in hospital with covid. ijust want to make a point that the prime minister has alluded to, which is, one of the reasons that care for other conditions like oncology and cardiovascular decisions gets affected is not the measures taken to stop covid, it is the patients with covid who start to occu py the patients with covid who start to occupy beds. and the more patients there are with covid, the more the pressure on the healthcare system overall, and the more the other conditions get affected because people don't have the capacity to deal with it. so, people don't have the capacity to dealwith it. so, it's people don't have the capacity to deal with it. so, it's very important to keep the numbers of infections down if we are to reduce the numberof infections down if we are to reduce the number of hospitalisations. next slide, please. this is the r value

overtime, slide, please. this is the r value over time, from may through to now. we are expecting an updated value for this tomorrow. what you can see isr for this tomorrow. what you can see is r was very flat over the period of the summer, it was below one, which means the epidemic was shrinking over that period up to august, and then, as measures were released and people started to make more contacts, you can see that the r increased. and it has gone up to somewhere between 1.2 to 1.5, something like that. so it is about half of the natural r, which is around three. so, this definitely reflects the huge effort that people have made to try to adhere to the various have made to try to adhere to the various measures have made to try to adhere to the various measures that are in place, the fact that we're wearing masks, keeping a distance, washing our hands, doing the things that we need to do, to try to reduce it, has brought the r down, but this also means that the epidemic is still growing. as long as r is above one, the epidemic continues to grow, and

it will continue to grow at a reasonable rate, it is doubling perhaps every 14—18 days, unless the r comes below one. so, that is the aim. iwant r comes below one. so, that is the aim. i want tojust say, there are some areas where we begin to see real effects of what is happening. so, there are some indications that amongst young people, the rates are coming down, or flattening off a bit, again, due to the huge efforts that people have made to try to adhere to these changes in behaviour that we need to have in order to get this down. and in some areas of the country, we can begin to see a little bit of flattening, possibly. so, the measures are having an effect, but we need to do more if the aim is to get r below one and to shrink this epidemic. i want to show you a couple of slides on regional pictures now. this is the picture that we have shown before, on the left—hand side, the darker the purple the higher the case numbers. what you can see is the entirety of

england is now purple, so there are cases everywhere increasing, and some areas have got very high numbers, which, if r stayed at one, those would stay at very high numbers. on the right—hand side is the speed with which growth is occurring. so, where it is brown, the numbers are increasing, and the darker the brown, the greater the increase. so, again, in some areas this has slowed down a bit, the rate of growth is not as high as it was in some areas. but overall, this is growing, continues to grow, r is above one, and therefore we should expect to see greater numbers. next slide, please. this is the regional breakdown in terms of hospital admissions, and in keeping with the previous slide, what you can see is that the north—west, north—east, yorkshire and midlands have the highest number of people in hospital. again, some possibility of beginning to see a decrease in the

rate of increase due to the measures that people are taken, and you can see london is increasing, but at a lower level, and increasing on the other areas. so, the lower level, and increasing on the otherareas. so, the regional picture is different, the country is essentially in different zones, depending on the speed of increase and the overall numbers, but you can see there are increases across the country as a whole. thanks very, very much, patrick. let's go to questions from the public. yvonne, from surrey, first of all. the question i would like to ask is, in the event of a national or local lockdown, where specific businesses are ordered to close, what financial help will be available by the government to cover particularly the cost of wages to businesses who have not been specifically told to close, but for whom there is no, or limited, income, because their clients or customers have been ordered to close, and therefore there is no work available? well,

thanks very much, yvonne, i am going to ask rishi obviously to comment on that as well. but we're doing everything we can to support business throughout this crisis, there are all sorts of loans available, grants available, 25 k gra nts available, grants available, 25 k grants have been made available, there is cuts in vat, down to 5%, i believe, business rates deferred, doing all sorts of things we can, to support you and help you, yvonne, but rishi, anything you would like to say to encourage yvonne? there are a few things we've put in place and have announced today that will be of help to people in the situation. if you are told specifically to close, your business will be eligible for grants of up to £3000 per month, and that will last as long as you have been told to close, and then for your staff, the

wages of those staff will be paid by the government at two thirds and all the government at two thirds and all the employer has to do is contribute to the national insurance contributions if they are owing at all, so that is sensible and generous treatment for people in those situations. for people suffering from a supply chain issue, as you are talking about, and you are involved in a supply chain where businesses use a player having a tough time and it has an impact on your business, a good example is in tier 2 areas where restrictions we have in place are having an impact on businesses, even though they have not been told to close but revenues are down. whether that is hospitality or otherwise. we made two announcements today that will help. businesses in the hospitality sector will be eligible for grants worth 70% of the value of the ones i mentioned earlier, so that will be up mentioned earlier, so that will be up to £2100 per month and some of that amount will be made available to the authority to allocate at their discretion so it might be that they choose to do something different but we will size the value

of the grants for the number of hospitality, leisure and accommodation businesses in a particular tier 2 area and those gra nts particular tier 2 area and those grants will be available monthly. secondly, for the wages of staff in those types of businesses, the newly generousjobs those types of businesses, the newly generous jobs support scheme those types of businesses, the newly generousjobs support scheme will really help, so rather than let go of those employees, they can work on reduced hours, down tojust of those employees, they can work on reduced hours, down to just one day a week so they have some work they can do and for the rest of the time those employees will be paid two thirds of their normal wage. the employer just needs thirds of their normal wage. the employerjust needs to pay 5% of that and the government will pick up the rest of the bill, so i think that's as much support as we can provide to help people stay in work, in businesses, even though those businesses are going through a very tough time, so hopefully those two things we announced today coming on top of what we have done will make a real difference. thanks very much. liam from bradford asks, what can and will you do to encourage new and

innovative business to emerge at this time? a critical component of economic growth which seems to have been forgotten. how can we share the risk? again, iwould been forgotten. how can we share the risk? again, i would say that the uk is one of the most creative and dynamic environments to set up a business under any circumstances. we have all sorts of advantages but we now have the advantage as i said to yvonne of an unprecedentedly low business rate, vat, we have low corporation tax and we are putting in fantastic investments now into a lot of the things that businesses will need for long—term growth, investment in skills, infrastructure and gigabit broadband, where we want to be leading the world, giving start—up businesses the basic foundation on which to build, but anything you would like to add to

that? liam, you are absolutely right and we are lucky in this country to have fabulous entrepreneurial start—up companies and they will help drive the recovery, so they haven't been forgotten. i would point you to one particular intervention we made early in the crisis which was to create something called the future fund. you heard the prime minister talk about the various loan grants and guarantees made available through the crisis, and they worked quite well for traditional businesses which had cash flow and profits before but they weren't well—suited start—ups like the ones you describe who were before the pre—revenue stage. so what the future fund did was share the risk, as you mention, between the risk, as you mention, between the government and investors in what we said is that we will match the investment, the private investment put into the start—up companies, whether that is in a series a round, oran angel round, whether that is in a series a round, or an angel round, anywhere from a couple of hundred thousand pounds, all the way up to five million and that fund has proved to be really successful and has been warmly

welcomed by the entrepreneurial community across the country and it has funded just under 1000 companies so farand as has funded just under 1000 companies so far and as you said, i'm hopeful that will provide them with the financing they need to survive through the crisis, share the risk with the taxpayer and that they will emerge stronger on the other side and help drive our growth and recovery. brilliant. let's go to laura kuenssberg of the bbc. firstly, chancellor, the problems of the first version of yourjobs support scheme that you rewrote today were obvious to people in industry from the start. why do you keep underestimating the help that people really need? sir patrick, can i ask if you agree with the scottish chief medical officer who has told families there is no question of anything like a normal christmas and they should plan to celebrate digitally. prime minister, to you, this week you have been to war with leaders in the north of england and you are still leaving workers on two thirds of their wages or telling them to claim benefits and cases of coronavirus keep on rising. is this

really the kind of leadership you think the country deserves?” really the kind of leadership you think the country deserves? i think it's a perfectly fair question to ask about the timing of this. if you think back to the summer when we designed the jobs support think back to the summer when we designed thejobs support scheme in conjunction with business and business groups and unions, at that point we were looking forward to the economy reopening and restrictions being lifted. what we have seen in the last, especially last four or five weeks, is as the new restrictions have been put in place the impact it is having on the ground has been highly significant, particularly to businesses in the hospitality sector, in these tier 2 areas and it is a cumulative weight of restrictions, if you speak to anyone in the industry, they see it in their numbers declining significantly in the past few weeks and that is why, as we've always said, we will adapt and evolve our response as the situation changes. as health restrictions have changed, that has had an impact on the economy, it's right we respond pragmatically and flexibly to that

because ultimately what we are trying to do is protect people's jobs and income and the measures we put in place today i am confident will dojust that, put in place today i am confident will do just that, and this will be in place for a while to come and i think is effective and generous support. i think the numbers speak for themselves. they are increasing and they will not decrease quickly and they will not decrease quickly andl and they will not decrease quickly and i think it's likely that some measures of restrictions are going to be in place for a while to try to get the numbers down. obviously the quicker you get the rh bill 01, the quicker you get the rh bill 01, the quicker numbers come down and things give some room —— the r rate down to one. at the moment the numbers are heading in the wrong direction but there are some signs in some places

ofa there are some signs in some places of a potential slacking off of that and we need to monitor the number is very, very carefully. laura, i must strongly reject what you said about me being at war with local leaders. that's not the case. we've had great conversations with local leaders, the mayors, and others in liverpool, lancashire, yorkshire and the west midlands. and south yorkshire, i should say. london and everybody has come to the table and shown leadership and stepped up to the plate and agreed to help bring the r rate down in that particular area, which is what we need to see and i'm grateful to andy burnham in greater manchester where he has agreed to bring the r rate down with a package of measures in tier 3 and as patrick has said, thanks to the efforts of

people across the country, we are starting to see some progress, although it is early days, and it will be tough, but i really think people do think across the country that this balanced approach, avoiding another full—scale national lockdown and avoiding letting the virus rip is the right way forward. that is what we are pursuing. balanced, nuanced courses, relying on local cooperation and i must disagree. we've had fantastic and extensive local cooperation and yes, it is tough, but we will certainly get through it very well. let's go to beth rigby at sky news. get through it very well. let's go to beth rigby at sky newsm get through it very well. let's go to beth rigby at sky news. is the backdating to business support today an acknowledgement that you were not supporting parts of the north of england properly four weeks during the summer. andy burnham is right when he says that you have neglected the north, and isn't this

announcement today an attempt to right that wrong? sir patrick, at a meeting on may the 1st of the sage committee agreed at least 80% of contact would be needed in the test and tray system to make it effective, but the test and trace scheme is contacting less than 60% now. how disappointing is that, and what are the applications of it in terms of tackling this disease? the issueis terms of tackling this disease? the issue is one of basic fairness is between the parts of the country that are having to experience regional restrictions and that's what we were trying to achieve in the last ten days, and what we are doing now is bringing forward measures that are designed to help businesses that cannot trade as they normally would, but are experiencing a fall normally would, but are experiencing afall in normally would, but are experiencing a fall in income and that is what we are doing, and doing it across the whole country and it is backdated, as you know, to august.|j

whole country and it is backdated, as you know, to august. i would just echo what you said, prime minister, because this is simply about fairness and treating people the same wherever they live and whatever their situation. all the interventions we have put in place are they on a national basis, and as different parts of the country experienced different restrictions at different times, the various support measures, whether its grants for businesses or thejobs support scheme will be there to help them in their businesses and support their wages at whatever time that is, but we approach everything from a position of wanting people to have equal support wherever they are, not just in england, but every part of the uk as well. thank you, ben. let's go to lbc. sorry, patrick. on the test and trace, it's undoubtedly the test and trace, it's undoubtedly the case that test, trace and isolation becomes more difficult to have an impact when numbers are high and it's much more effective when numbers are low, that's the first point. the second point is that the

testing system has ramped up the numbers they are able to do quite effectively, but it's really important to concentrate on numbers of contacts, isolate as quickly as you can, and getting things back as quickly as you can to get the whole process done in 48 hours, and it's very clear there is room for improvement in all of that and that will be diminishing the effectiveness of it. but the effectiveness of it. but the effectiveness of it. but the effectiveness of test and trace is less when numbers are high than it is when numbers are low. thank you very much. lbc. you need to unmute, or somebody needs to unmute you. can you hear me now? yes, god true. following up on that issue, because countries like germany, south korea and taiwan have shown there are alternatives to the restrictions that much of the uk are underand restrictions that much of the uk are under and that is a functioning test and trace system. we are testing more people than ever but clearly something is going wrong. for example, injune, you said you

wanted 100% of test results to be backin wanted 100% of test results to be back in 24 hours and today the current figure is just 15%. back in 24 hours and today the current figure isjust 15%. so back in 24 hours and today the current figure is just 15%. so what do you think has gone wrong there and when can you assure the british public that the system will be effective enough to start to control the virus as it in other countries? and quickly to the chancellor, unprecedented times and clearly unprecedented times and clearly unprecedented spending is needed to support people but with uk debt hitting the 2 trillion, the highest since the 1960s, how long do you believe that can go on for and how concerned are you about the figure? first of all, on your point about nhs test and trace, i share peoples frustration and i understand totally why we need to see faster turnaround times, and we do need to improve it, and we need to make sure the people who get a positive test self—isolate. that is the absolutely crucial thing if this is going to

work in the way it can. but i would stress to you that the achievements of the testing operation have been colossal. they have moved from a capacity of 3000, 2000 tests today, to about 300,000, and we have tested 26 million times, more than any other country in europe, and they are on track to reach a capacity of 500,000 by the end of this month. and the technology is improving the whole time. but the crucial thing to get nhs test and trace to work, that is if you test positive, you've got to self—isolate. and don't forget that there is a £500 to help you with the cost of that, but also a £10,000 fine for not doing so. the thing depends on people self isolating and breaking the transmission. it is helping a bit

already to break transmission, about 1 million people, as i say, 1 million contacts have been reached, but there is more than it can do if everybody complies if they are contacted by nhs test and trace. ben, you are about to highlight the unprecedented increase in borrowing which is happening this year and the consequent rise in our debt levels close to 100% of gdp, and those are unprecedented numbers, in unprecedented numbers, in unprecedented times. whilst it is right to act with scale during a crisis like this to try to protect jobs and employment, and ultimately protect the economy in the long run, it is also right that because of those numbers that you highlighted, that we also have one eye on the long—term public finances, because we want to make sure that we are careful with that. it's clearly not sustainable to carry on acting in this way for ever. so, as we

continue intervening in the economy, it is right that that is targeted and effective and done in a way that we will not always be able to do absolutely everything that everyone would like us to do, and it is because of the things that you highlighted that that will be the case, we have got to have one eye on the long—term health of the public finances, and make sure that once we get through this, we can return those public finances to a strong and sustainable position. thanks very much, rishi. let's go to chris smith, of the times. thank you. chancellor, firstly, just picking up on your last point, given that the government strategy now is to suppress the virus until a vaccine is found, and having accepted the need for more support to date and saying it will be in place for a while to come, can you guarantee that this level of help will continue to be available until a vaccine is in widespread use of? and then to the prime minister and sir patrick, on test and trace, you said that it patrick, on test and trace, you said thatitis patrick, on test and trace, you said that it is more effective when the numbers are low, and it diminishes in effectiveness as cases rise, so have we now effectively missed out

moment, are the cases nowjust increasing too quickly to keep up?” will let the prime minister and patrick comment on the vaccine and the part that that plays or doesn't in the medium—term strategy, but what we wanted to do was to give businesses and employees some certainty and ability to plan through what is clearly going to be a difficult winter period. so, what we have said is that the job support scheme, which starts on the 1st of november, when fellow finishes, will la st november, when fellow finishes, will last for at least six months, through until the spring. there will bea through until the spring. there will be a review point in the middle so that we can have a look at it and make sure it is working well, but that support will be there through this difficult period, through to the spring, to give people that certainty. as the prime minister said a while back, this is something which will be a fact of our lives for some months to come. i more broadly, most of the economic interventions we have made also now have that predictable a tea through to the spring, whether it is the business rates, holidays, changes in the loan programs, or the vat cut

for hospitality, all of that will provide cash support to businesses and people throughout this period. but i will let the prime minister and patrick talk about the medium—term outlook. and patrick talk about the medium-term outlook. well, i would just add one obvious point, chris, to what rishi has just said, and thatis, to what rishi has just said, and that is, clearly, what this amounts to is billions more are going in to support the uk economy, to support jobs and livelihoods, and that is right, it is far better to do that and keep the economy going, because we are going to have to pay this money back and we want to be in a position where the uk economy, where companies are kept alive, jobs are supported, people's skills and energies are maintained, so that the uk can bounce back as strongly as possible once, as you say, we get the virus back under control. and thatis the virus back under control. and that is the objective. and i think

that is the objective. and i think that if you look at the way the science is changing and you look at the improvements in treatments, in therapies, in drugs, look at the changes we're seeing in the improvements in... and some changes in the mortality rates, i am confident that we will get through this very well in due course. but for the moment, improvements in testing technologies, as i said last week, really interesting improvements in testing technologies... but for the moment, we have to use the same tools that we've got, which is, the social distancing measures, all restrictions that we have put in place, and we have to do that at a local and a regional level, because thatis local and a regional level, because that is the commonsensical thing to do. and if we do it together, in the way that we can, and we follow the guidance together, in the disciplined way that we can... and

by the way, the way that people of all age groups seem to be doing across the country, then we will drive that r down again and we will get it under control. and in the meantime we will have supported our businesses, kept them alive, kept jobs going, and we will be in a better position to come out of it. that is what we're doing. patrick. on vaccines, things are progressing well, there are vaccines that produce an immune response, they are in phase three clinical trials, we should be seeing some data readouts over the course of this year, but i remain of the view that the possibility widespread use of vaccines is not going to be until spring or so next year, by the time we get enough doses and enough understanding of the outputs, to use them. we may get a few doses this side of christmas, maybe something could happen, but i think we should mores the stickley be looking at the spring, and of course, there are no guarantees until the studies are read out. but there is good progress in terms of the vaccines. in terms

of test and trace and the number of cases, test and trace will work effectively across parts of the uk where cases are lower, that is when it can work most effectively. it has much less of an impact in the areas where you've got very high levels, and that's why additional measures are taken, that is why additional isolation measures, having to take difficult decisions around premises that need to be shut and so on, that is why they need to be taken, because at that point, you can't really control it any other way than by stopping contacts. stopping contacts in environments in which transmission is most likely to take place. and then what test and trace does above that, and isolate, is to try and remove from circulation as faras try and remove from circulation as far as you try and remove from circulation as faras you can try and remove from circulation as far as you can those people who are infectious. and as new testing methods come on train, that may be possible more widely, but at the moment it is very difficult to re move moment it is very difficult to remove everybody who is infectious from a situation where you've got high levels, which is why it's so

important to get them down. and why it is so important to self—isolate if you get a positive test, because if you get a positive test, because if that doesn't happen, then obviously a lot of the force of test and trace is lost. let's go to richard partington of the guardian. thank you very much. question for you, prime minister, and the chancellor. i wanted to ask why the government was prepared to go to the wall earlier this week over 5mm in pounds with andy burnham —— £5 million — when you were preparing to announce billions more support today, through this expansion in the job support scheme. the chancellor and the community secretary were pictured meeting business leaders in london this morning. does this mean that london is of a higher priority than the north of england, for the government? and then a second, if i may — why wait so long to announce

these major reversals in policy, when business leaders will have been making decisions about what to do when the furlough scheme ends for several months now — does this not have a dutch mental effect on employment and should the government not have acted quicker? -- detrimental effect. sorry, richard, i think you directed the question at both of us but i will quickly say my bit. look, this was... of the negotiations between regional leaders, metro mayors, was all about fairness, that is what that discussion was about, about making sure everybody got the same package. what we're trying to do now is to address a national issue, which is that obviously since the virus started to come up again, there has been much more concerned, particularly amongst the business community, about people's ability to protect jobs and community, about people's ability to protectjobs and livelihoods because of the effects of the virus. and as the campaign adjusts, the fight against the virus changes, and obviously, we change our response.

that is only logical. yes, i would echo that, prime minister. when we designed the job support scheme, together with businesses, that you mentioned, and unions, it was done over the mentioned, and unions, it was done overthe summer mentioned, and unions, it was done over the summer with a view to the economy being opened and restrictions being lifted. obviously the last few weeks, that has not been as those businesses had expected, those restrictions were coming back, they were having a community of effect on the ground, particularly in tier 2 areas, particularly in tier 2 areas, particularly in tier 2 areas, particularly in hospitality, and thatis particularly in hospitality, and that is the cooler to weight of the changes and the impact on consumer confidence, and that is why we have beenin confidence, and that is why we have been in discussions to try to see what we could do what we wanted to do which was to try and protect jobs and employment at this difficult time. in regard to the meeting this morning, you're right, iwas meeting together with the community secretary with representatives from businesses, unions and indeed in particular the hospitality sector. there were plenty of people on zoom as well, indeed, from merseyside and

north yorkshire, as well as other places around the country. so i wouldn't take anything from the fact that the meeting happened to be held in london. and you're right, it was held ina in london. and you're right, it was held in a restaurant that was close to the public at the time and was used as a meeting place for us. it is important that we highlight the particular impact of what is happening on the hospitality sector, and that is why we were there, to bring that issue to light. that is what we were discussing, how these social destructions are impacting on hospitality businesses like that across the country, and how can we adapt and evolve our support to try to help those businesses protect as manyjobs as to help those businesses protect as many jobs as possible? to help those businesses protect as manyjobs as possible? 2 million people who work in that sector, i have said repeatedly that those people typically are younger, ethnic minorities, on lower pay, and it is a matter of socialjustice that we do what we can to try to protect as many of those jobs as possible. thanks very much. let's go lastly to jane kirby of the press association. you need to unmute, jane. sorry.

good afternoon. sir patrick, just picking up on what you were saying about vaccines, if we get a decent level of roll—out by next spring, how soon after that can people expect to stop having to social distance and wear masks, or do you think that those measures are going to be in place for much of the rest of 2021? prime minister, if circuit breakers in wales and northern ireland are shown to be more effective than three—tiered restrictions, which some of own advisers have said, will you change your mind? do you want to go first on the vaccines? i am not going to speculate on how effective the vaccines are going to be. we will see the readout on the clinical trials over the next months, hopefully some of them in the next couple of months, and once we know how effective the vaccines are, then... and how applicable they are two different groups, then you can start working out how to use them best, but you can't do that until

you have seen the results of safety and efficacy. once you have seen that, then you can start tojudge what will happen. but clearly the aim of vaccination is to try to take most of the load of the infection spread onto the vaccine in order to be able to release other measures, and that has got to be an aim that we would all wish for. that is why so many companies around the world are working on vaccines and why there has been such remarkable progress, and it is remarkable. if you look at history up till now vaccines have never been made in anything like this timeframe, it has been at least five years, and so, to been at least five years, and so, to be where we are now is remarkable. thanks very much. i really hope that we do make progress with vaccines, and it is wonderful that patrick is so optimistic, if i can put it that way, about them. but we can't, jane, in my view, rely on that, we've got to keep going. it may happen a few

working flat out to ensure that it does, but we can'tjust count on that, and that is why we have to do all the other things that we're doing. and you ask the same question everybody is asking, should we just go back into another national lockdown, and then possibly have another one after that, and another one after that? and i think that that really would be economically, socially, psychologically, really very damaging and difficult for the country. we all remember what it was like in march and april, there were lots of costs, particularly costs to kids who were kept out of school, there is a big social injustice, there's damage to people's mental health, to say nothing of the economic consequences of that kind of lockdown. so, that's not why we are going for that approach. we do think that the local measures are, andi think that the local measures are, and i repeat my gratitude to local leadership across the country,

people who are helping to get the r down, get the virus down, in their neighbourhoods, amongst their electorate should either. and we've seen plenty of great local leadership. and that is what we are going to continue with, we're going to continue to work with people across the country, but it is down to all of us to full of the guidance, hands, face, space, do the... we haven't said that yet, this press conference. hands, face, space, do the essential stuff that you know makes sense. take a test if you know makes sense. take a test if you have symptoms, self—isolate if you're contacted by nhs test and trace. that's the way we can do it together, we can get the r down, keep kids in school, keep our schools open and keep our economy moving, and bounce back more strongly. and the package that we've

outlined today is about doing just that, keeping our economy moving, keeping jobs, supporting jobs and livelihoods throughout the pandemic. thank you all very much. the prime minister bringing to an end of the latest downing street briefing and defending his strategy of avoiding another national lockdown tiered restrictions across the country. listening into that was jess restrictions across the country. listening into that wasjess parker, our political correspondent, so what stood out for you? i thought it was interesting because at the top of the downing street press conference borisjohnson the downing street press conference boris johnson talked the downing street press conference borisjohnson talked about clear signs of collecting action working and if people follow the guidance we can get the our number down, and behind that there's been a lot of questions this week about this area, that area going into tier 2 and other areas like liverpool, lancashire, greater manchester going into tier 3, but how do they get

out? the government has been unable or reluctant to set out specific criteria or benchmarks and i think borisjohnson criteria or benchmarks and i think boris johnson probably just trying to provide a bit of encouragement for people that if they stick to the rules and bring the r number down, there is hope going forward but still not being specifically told on how areas can get out of tighter restrictions. what did you make of the distinction he drew between the row that was going on with northern leaders and specifically andy burnham earlier this week, last week, in fact, burnham earlier this week, last week, infact, and burnham earlier this week, last week, in fact, and this announcement today. he was asked about the timing and why this offer from the chancellor had been made so late, and he said that was about fairness between the metro mayors, but this isa between the metro mayors, but this is a national issue. yes, and i think people will pick that apart a bit and the greater manchester labour mayor andy burnham has been expressing his anger today at some of the measures announced. they will be retrospective so they will help

areas like greater manchester, and that was made clear to him earlier in the week and that would have made a difference, but borisjohnson defended the strategy saying it was about fairness and behind the negotiations they did get pretty messy, but the government argued it could not give more help to one area than another and laying out that a lot of it applies on a national basis. so really defending the approach, and more broadly as we heard, defending the approach of regional restrictions. not wanting, as borisjohnson regional restrictions. not wanting, as boris johnson has regional restrictions. not wanting, as borisjohnson has put it before, letting the virus rip, but not having a national lockdown because of the damage it could bring. but taking this regional approach, trying not always succeeding, to get a buy in from local leaders hasn't led to some messy and public rows over the last couple of weeks —— has led. what about the feeling that the chancellor is coming back within a month of his winter rescue plan to

layout these further measures? rishi sunak was asked about that because there is a suggestion of why he didn't see this coming. the government's defence is that it's a changeable situation and they are adapting as they go. i thought it was quite interesting, and it seems an obvious point, that clearly today what the government had announced was spending even more money than they were before and one of the questions that consistently gets asked,is questions that consistently gets asked, is how will this be paid for. borisjohnson asked, is how will this be paid for. boris johnson that asked, is how will this be paid for. borisjohnson that it is right to keep the economy going, as we —— he put it, but we will have to pay the money back. it seems like an obvious point but it's interesting to hear the prime minister acknowledge they could be paying down the line in terms of footing the bill for the enormous sums of money being spent. 0k. enormous sums of money being spent. ok. thanks very much. that'sjessica parker, our political correspondent in westminster. our health correspondent anna collinson is here now. the chief scientific adviser, sir

patrick vallance, gave a lot of information about exactly what the virus, the prevalence of the virus at the moment, so run us through that. first of all, boris johnson, it's important to point out his focus in that press conference, dismissing calls about allowing the virus to run its course, saying we would not be able to protect the elderly or vulnerable and it could lead to thousands more deaths and also dismissing those who called for also dismissing those who called for a national lockdown, saying it could have serious psychological and financial damage to people, and there are variations across the country. some areas in the country will benefit from it but there are areas that wouldn't. basically he has called his tiered system a balanced approach, particularly as there are variations, but while coronavirus cases and hospital admissions and deaths are rising, the pm claims that what has been put in place is working. as you mention, the chief scientific adviser to the government, patrick vallance, has shown is a series of slides and we can go through a few of them. the

first one is an estimate of the percentage of people testing positive for covid—19 in england, and as you should be able to see there was a big dip over the summer, but as we move closer to the winter, infections have started to rise again. cases have risen from 312,002 between that and 362,000 in the week between that and 362,000 in the week between the 20th of september and the 8th of october and we will get some new figures from the office for national statistics tomorrow regarding infections which will give us an even clearer picture, but patrick vallance said that we should expect to see that trend continue. the next slide, this shows the number of patients admitted to hospital with covid—19 on a daily basis in the uk. that starts in september. the yellow bar marks about a month ago and now you can see there is an upwards trend towards 1000. it's very likely again that this trend will continue for at least a few weeks because as cases

are rising, this often takes a week or so to translate into hospitalisations and from there that can go into cases that unfortunately in some situations lead to death. there's also a similar trend with patients in hospital with covid—19 in the uk, and that is at around nearly 7000. and this final slide we will look at is the r number, or reproduction number, and that stretches back to april. the r number is linked to the growth rate of the epidemic. if it goes above one, it means the virus is growing so the aim is always to keep it below one. an update is announced tomorrow but currently the number is between 1.3 and tomorrow but currently the number is between1.3 and 1.5, tomorrow but currently the number is between 1.3 and 1.5, and this means ten people in the uk will infect between 13 and 15 others. as you can see, it was flat over the summer meaning the epidemic shrank but as the measures were relaxed it started creeping up again stop patrick valla nce creeping up again stop patrick vallance was keen to point out that the r number is still half of the natural one which would be around

three and he has praised people for the measures put in place to stop the measures put in place to stop the number growing, things like social distancing, wearing masks, but he says the academic is still growing, doubling between every 14 to 18 days currently. thank you very much. so, as we've been hearing, the chancellor, rishi sunak, has announced changes to thejob support scheme — it will now pay up to nearly a half of workers' wages, instead of 22 percent and grants up to £2,100 for firms in a high coronavirus alert level areas in england. it comes as stoke—on—trent, coventry and slough are the latest areas of england to be moved to the high coronavirus alert level. how has that gone down with people struggling to run businesses? trish o'brien is the manager of the orange tree pub in chelmsford and the owner of the queens head pub in soho who are both in tier 2 areas,

and an king who runs a cafe bar that is about to move into tier 2 —— an king. thank you for waiting. i know you have been waiting and listening to the press briefing. i wonder if i could go first of all to trish. you are going into the tier 2 restrictions. what do you think of the support that the chancellor has announced today? it's very welcome, actually, because it was quite worrying. i mean, since we went to the curfew at 10pm business obviously suffered a little bit, but with this one household per table, obviously we will suffer a bit more, so this is quite welcome, this funding he has announced today. have you been in touch with people who

would normally come to you? do you detect a nervousness about coming out? how are your customers feeling? hundred percent. footfall has gone down enormously and especially since the numbers of covid—19 has been rising, so you can almost predict it will happen every time there has been a surge in cases. yes, we have less people coming in. most people come to the pub, they come with friends, and that has all fallen away because if you're not from the same household, you can't sit at the same household, you can't sit at the same table. so i think a lot of people are staying at home now. maybe that's it, just not coming out. that is very difficult for you. anne, you run a cafe bar in longton and you are going into tier 2. how do you feel about that? nervous. it

was something we had half expected. hello? hello? keep going. what we tended to find... i am sorry, i will just wait a little bit and put a question tojoe just wait a little bit and put a question to joe and just wait a little bit and put a question tojoe and we will come back to you. joe curran, you own the queens head pub in soho. how hopeful is the new scheme going to be to you? —— helpful. is the new scheme going to be to you? -- helpful. the two parts of it that will help our business and our employees, so we will be able to keep them and change the futures of some of our employers who we had given notice to that their employment with us would come to an end, but now it looks like they may be able to stay on through november as we wait for trading conditions to improve. so that is potentially very good news for people who were expecting to lose theirjobs. they

may now not. absolutely and we've had a few phone calls today with some individuals and we will speak to more later this evening and it will make a massive impact to their lives heading into november and december, to do that without a job is very daunting and i have had some text messages from stressed staff, so we can alleviate some of that stress. the grants for us, we missed out on the first round of grants because our business rates were over the threshold for the grants, so this is the first cash that will arrive into the business. we had some relief in terms of the business rates and being able to access the bounce back alone, but this is the first time cash has arrived to help us with fixed costs that will not turn into a debt we have to pay in future years, so this is some good news for the business. it's been a very ha rd news for the business. it's been a very hard week since last week when we got the tier 2 restrictions, that

was devastating, and we could have done with the news at the same time as we started making the changes to our business last week. you feel it has come late? it's been a very hard week to look at the sales figures coming in overthe week to look at the sales figures coming in over the weekend and sales halving from friday to saturday, and, you know, you are thinking what is the future? and this relief package has come a week later, and that said i can't complain compared to the areas you are talking about in the north where they have waited four weeks. can i go back to you, trish? how cooperative have people been when they come to your pub and you are asking them to adhere to the rules ? you are asking them to adhere to the rules? are people happy to play along? yes, they are. they are very good, actually and they know the

distress the staff is under with the table service and everything we have to do to adhere to the rules, and they are very adaptable, actually. they are really supportive and really good. you know, we have the odd few who coming and just behave as if nothing is going on, but when you talk to them and explain to them that you really have to stick to the rules, they just that you really have to stick to the rules, theyjust do. and people want to stick to the rules as well. we find that if someone is sitting at a table and somebody else comes in and there are people that they know, and they just want to jolly up and there are people that they know, and theyjust want to jolly up and sit with them, they will say no, you are not allowed to sit here. they like to stick to the rules and they do stick to the rules and i think it's a case of everybody wants to be safe. nobody wants to get infected, and if this stops the spread, they will stick rigidly to it. they are very good. ok. thank you. anne, i

think we have you back. so you are going into tier 2. you welcome this help that the chancellor is giving you, but i suppose there is the big question about what your customers will think and whether they will in fa ct wa nt will think and whether they will in fact want to come. that's it. every time we've seen them... we automatically see a drop in trade, and whether that affects them or not, we will see a big difference over the coming days. we took full use of the furlough scheme. we are doing our best with your line, but it just really isn't doing our best with your line, but itjust really isn't working. i'm so sorry. i wonder if i could bring in joe curran again for one more question. joe, your pub is in soho, the centre of london, it's been in

tier 2 restrictions since last saturday. what effect have those restrictions had in the last few days? it devastated the business. if you walk around the area, the pubs are empty. this is now looking really grim looking forward to the winter. pubs, we are hearing about pubs that are considering shuttering up pubs that are considering shuttering up again and there just isn't enough trade to support these pubs. so, yeah, that had a brutal effect and andl yeah, that had a brutal effect and and i and the government were surprised about the effect level two would have. it is interesting, because we've spoken before during the restrictions and you have previously sounded more upbeat. you sound more sombre today. just in terms of the trade levels, i did not

expect the trade to drop in the numbers that they have, and then having gone around and spoken to some of the other operators, we talk about, you know, sales figures and numbers that come through the door, and it's really not good. we're hoping, we're always optimistic, that people will react. we saw after the ten o'clock curfew, the first weekend was awful, then people did start to change their social habits, come out a little bit earlier. and maybe if people can't meet their friends in pubs, maybe it is still nice to go and enjoy a drink with your housemate in a pub. it's not going to be as many people, maybe just being in the house for that long during the cold winter nights will be a bit boring, so maybe people welcome out. but we were shocked by the sales this weekend. well, we wish you all the best,

that's joe curran, well, we wish you all the best, that'sjoe curran, the owner of the queen's head in soho, and also trish o'brien, the manager of the orange tree in chelmsford. thank you very much indeed. now, attempts to find out... attempts to find out why people from minority ethnic groups are more likely to die from covid—19 shouldn't focus entirely on race, according to a scientist advising the government on ethnicity. dr raghib ali says that focusing on factors including obesity and housing would help more people. our community affairs correspondent adina campbell reports. this is my late brother and myself... remember his brother, six months on, since he died of coronavirus. as a family we think, asa coronavirus. as a family we think, as a hospital or government, could doa

bit more dr peter tun was a specialist in neurological rehabilitation at the royal berkshire hospital in reading. his family says he had concerns about the lack of ppe while at work and died in april after catching the virus. an investigation into his death is ongoing, and the royal berkshire nhs foundation trust says it is waiting for the results of the report. today, the government has published new findings on covid disparities and given more details about how it's going to improve health outcomes for people from ethnic minority backgrounds. they include recording ethnicity on death certificates in england, as a way of tracking which groups are more at risk. it's also going to spend £25 million on a new community champions scheme, to help protect the most vulnerable, and workplace risk assessments for everyone, to improve health conditions and reduce the number of deaths. so why are people from ethnic minorities more at risk of dying from coronavirus? they are more likely to live in poorer areas, with limited access to the health care they need and, because of this, they may be in shared housing,

meaning there is a greater chance of catching the virus, and we know people from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to have underlying health conditions linked to higher coronavirus death rates. but one government adviser who's just been appointed to look at this issue more closely says we shouldn't solely concentrate on ethnicity. look at the actual risk factor that's causing it. look at their overcrowded housing, their deprivation, their occupation, etc, and then you'll capture everybody. how do you hope that this report will reassure those communities? deprivation is one of the risk factors which we have ta ken into account. we are doing this across the population for those people that we believe are vulnerable. i think that we have a responsibility to show that they are not being left behind and, as a black woman, that's something that i have personally taken an interest in. for those who have lost loved ones, today's report has come too late. the hope is it could help other families avoid similar tragedies.

adina campbell, bbc news. two pieces of news to bring you that we have just had two pieces of news to bring you that we havejust had in. first two pieces of news to bring you that we have just had in. first of all, the daily coronavirus figures show that there were 180 deaths recorded in the last 24—hour period. that is down from 191 the day before. and there were 21,242 new infections recorded today, and that is compared to 26,688 the day before. so, a drop of several hundred thousand in terms of several hundred thousand in terms of the new infections. and there is also news that has come in from the transport secretary, grant shapps, who has added several countries to the safe travel list from england, from the 24th of october. you can see it there. so, he says that the ca nary islands, the see it there. so, he says that the canary islands, the maldives, denmark and the greek island of

mykonos have been added to the travel corridors list, which means that you will no longer need to self—isolate and quarantine if you arrive from those destinations from the 25th of october. well, as we've been hearing, firms who are not legally required to close such as those in tier 2 areas like birmingham and coventry will get additional subsidies to pay workers. phil mackie is in coventry. so, today's announcement from the chancellor will be really good news for businesses, especially in the hospitality sector here in birmingham, which is in tier 2, which will be really struggling and which will be really struggling and which will be concerned, as the furlough scheme came to an end, what kind of support they were going to get. they are going to get a lot more and that will really help. but also we've heard today that other parts of the west midlands, coventry in particular, is going into tier 2 restrictions and we know that the numbers are still steadily going up, not as badly as they are further north, but there is still a steady

rise. i have got the mayor of the west midlands with me, what is your reaction? i am very pleased with today's announcement from the chancellor. when we went into tier 2 last week, we knew it would make a real difference to the hospitality business is here, so we were very quick to say to the chancellor that there has got to be more support and there has got to be more support and the two together things we were talking about, discretionary grants and a more generousjob support scheme, both have come through. you are quite critical of the government because it had not announced that, and it has suddenly happened, andy burnham, your counterpart up in manchester, has said, why couldn't we have known this a bit earlier, why has it suddenly happened now?|j why has it suddenly happened now?” think to be fair it's a very fast changing situation. when the chancellor announced his winter economy plan, he did not expect london and birmingham to be at the tier 2 level of restrictions, but they have moved quickly, once the case was made, and they've listened to the voice of hospitality across the country. and it's a really big, important part of the city, isn't it? we have got more michelin stars in birmingham than any other city

outside london. a lot of those businesses are threatened with closure, some might not have been able to reopen at all, do you think this is enough to save those businesses? i do think this will make a genuine difference, it won't change the fundamental point about the level of patronage they have got coming through, given the restrictions. just to explain, if you are a tier 2 area, people from outside your own household can't meet you in a pub or restaurant. so, that really dense their businesses. but there is practicalfinancial support here that we hope will help them through until we can return to normal. and the figures are still going up across the west midlands, not massively rapidly, but they have not massively rapidly, but they have not even started to plateau yet, is there a point where birmingham goes into tier 3? it could be, is the a nswer to into tier 3? it could be, is the answer to that, to be really clear, there are no current intention is for any part of the west midlands to move into tier 3. but if the members do continue to rise, of course that will have to be considered with government. so, my message to anyone in the west midlands would be to

follow all of the rules as fiercely as you can to prevent us going into tier 3. thank you very much. and what i have heard notjust from andy but from some of the council leaders as well as a frustration that those numbers are going up. the outbreaks at universities are starting to come down but elsewhere, the numbers are going up they fear because people have become blase maybe about some of the restrictions and are not obeying those basic instructions to wash your hands, maintain social distancing, which would see the figures come down hopefully by christmas so that there may be a chance of some relaxation. scots should prepare for digital celebrations this christmas, according to the national clinical director in scotland, jason leitch. he said that people should get their digital christmas ready. the government has insisted that the latest covid—19 restrictions are having an impact on the spread of the virus.

the prime minister has said that there are clear signs that our collective actions are working. speaking at the downing street press conference a short while ago, he reiterated the importance of adhering to restrictions alongside further support for the economy which the chancellor announced today. i know that there are some people who say that this economic objective is so important that we should stop all measures to control the virus and stop restrictions of any kind on our social lives and on the way we run our businesses. we can't do that, because alas, the maths is inescapable, we would face many thousands more deaths, and no, to a nswer thousands more deaths, and no, to answer one commonly posed question, we would not be able to insulate the elderly and the vulnerable, not in a society with so many multigenerational households, no country has been able to do that.

and an uncontrolled expansion in the number of covid patients would mean that the nhs would have even less capacity to treat heart patients and cancer patients and to deal with all our other medical needs. so, that's why we reject that extreme laissez—faire approach. and then there are others who say, on the contrary, that we need now to lock the whole place down from john o'groats to land's the whole place down from john o'groats to lands end, turn the lights out, close schools and universities and go back to the same kind of lockdown we had in march and april and may. and i have to say i don't believe that is the right course now. not when the psychological cost of lockdown is well known to us, the economic cost. and not what it's been suggested

that we might have to perform the same sort of brutal lockdowns again and again in the months ahead. and not when there is such an obvious variation, unlike last time, between different parts of the country. so that's why we are going for a balanced approach, a middle course between the scilla of a another national lockdown, and the charybdis of an uncontrolled virus. a regional and local approach, the same approach that is now being followed by some of the countries that have been most successful in their fights against the virus. and so to all of those who are enduring these restrictions, and who have been enduring them for so long in all parts of the country, i want to repeat my thanks for your bravery, for your patience, and your public spiritedness. and i repeat, there are clear signs that our collective actions are working.

yes, the r, the reproduction rate of the virus, is above one, but thanks to the efforts of people of all ages in following the guidance and the rules, the r is about half its natural rate. and if we follow the guidance together, and follow the rules, then we can get it done. that was boris johnson speaking at the downing street briefing a short while ago, alongside the chancellor rishi sunak outlining measures to suport workers in part of england under tier two restrictions. since then, we have had our daily update of the figures, the uk recording 180 deaths on thursday, down from 191 the previous day, and the cases are also down, 21,242 cases recorded today, compared to 26,688 the day before. so, that is

down by about 5000 cases. george alagiah will be next with the news at six. in the meantime, you've been watching a bbc news special. borisjohnson has said changes to the programme which replaces furlough next month is aimed at keeping as many people in work as possible this winter. the alterations to thejob support scheme allow employees to work fewer hours to qualify for government support and companies can make smaller contributions towards hours not worked. speaking at this afternoon's downing street press conference, the chancellor, rishi sunak, said the package of support was "one of the most generous" in the world. our economics correspondent andy verity reports. a normally busy restaurant area under tier 2 restrictions. the outlets here may be open but business is so quiet, many are struggling to survive on a fraction of their normal income.

in stirchley, in the west midlands, this once bustling microbrewery normally sells barrels to pubs which, under the new restrictions, are not buying like they used to. it's trying to adapt by selling cans directly to customers but its income has been tanking. as soon as we started to see things beginning to return to normal, back to profitability, birmingham was designated a tier 2 area and our revenue was hit massively. restaurants like this one in tier 2 or tier 3 areas have a problem. they can't claim on the scheme that pays two thirds of wages because they are not legally required to shut, but because of the rule that says two households can't mix indoors, they're seeing a sharp drop in business which makes it harder and harder to keep their staff on. after businesses and unions warned many firms could go under, the chancellor, rishi sunak, met business leaders today to announce yet another change to the government's