this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. growing pressure on the uk government for more clarity on coronavirus restrictions in the lead up to christmas after uk deaths hit their highest level for five months. but the environment secretary says the right measures are in place to give people a good festive season. i am sure we will be able to have a good christmas and families will be able to meet but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. a leaked document from the uk government scientific advisors warns that 25,000 people could be in hospital in the uk with the virus by the end of november. in europe, leaders prepare to announce tighter coronavirus restrictions as infections surge

across the continent, with an imminent nationwide lockdown likely in france and bars and restaurants to close in germany. if you would like to get in touch on this story or any of us, you can tweet me or use this hashtag. the head of the uk's vaccine trail says vaccines won't be a magic there's been a second night of unrest in philadelphia after another black man was shot dead by police. looting and violence broke out after hundreds of people took to the streets. and coming up this hour.... we will hear from one of the leading authorities in the world on that formed disease on whether the virus could have crossed to humans from animals.

hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world good morning and welcome to bbc news. there's growing pressure on the uk government for more clarity on coronavirus restrictions in the lead up to christmas after uk deaths hit their highest level for five months. 367 deaths linked to the virus were recorded, as were nearly 23,000 more cases. various papers are reporting new analysis from the uk government's scientific advisory group saying 25,000 people will be in hospital with covid by the end of next month. sage member and former chief scientific adviser sir mark walport says that it is "certainly not unrealistic". the city of nottingham and the surrounding areas of rushcliffe, gedling and broxtowe are moving into the top tier of covid restrictions. the measures come in at one minute past midnight. about 8 million people in england will be living in the tier 3 "very high" alert level by the end

of the week. meanwhile, the leaders of the uk's four nations are being urged to agree on uniform guidance to allow people to celebrate christmas with family and friends safely. the liberal democrats and the alliance party of northern ireland say the governments have a duty to "explore workable solutions" for the festive period. over to mainland europe where a surge of infections is being reported. president macron of france is expected to announce a new four week lockdown. and germany's chancellor, angela merkel, will push for tighter restrictions including the closure of bars, restaurants and gyms for most of november. more on all this to come but first back to the new analysis of coronavirus in the uk. earlier i spoke to our health correspondent nick triggle who told me there is lots of modelling going on behind the scenes which feeds in to government decision making. 0ne reported today by the newspapers is that the number of deaths per day will reach 500 and will remain at that level for weeks, maybe months, which would lead to a higher death

toll, we are warned, than we saw in the spring peak. at the moment we have seen a gradual but sustained rise in hospital admissions and sadly the numbers of people who are dying and it is different from the spring when we had a rapid surge with cases doubling every four or five days, now it is every two weeks or $0. five days, now it is every two weeks or so. but lockdown brought those numbers down reasonably quickly. what is happening now, with the government trying to keep society going, is the rise is slow but much more sustained. at the moment we are seeing around 200 deaths per day on average and 1000 new admissions to hospital every day with a total of 10,000, nearly 10,000 hospital every day with a total of 10,000, nearly10,000 patients in hospital with covid at the moment and this is what sir mark walport, one of the sage members, had to say. 0ne one of the sage members, had to say. one way to look at it is to look at what is happening in similar

countries. france has a similar population to us and currently they have about 16,000 people in hospital, 2500 in intensive care compared to 852 here. and roughly half the icu beds in france are occupied. similarthings half the icu beds in france are occupied. similar things in spain. and these are in spite of these countries taking strong measures as well so the answer is that with our current measures, which are similar but with variations in different parts of europe, there is still evidence that there is not as much a social distancing as there was when we clamped down on the first wave. we know risk is significant that cases will continue to grow. it is not unrealistic to think of 25,000 people being in hospital by the end of next month? certainly not unrealistic to think about that. as was said on television recently, if the reproduction number, if it stays at one it means that every ten

people infect ten or more but at the moment it is higher than that, between 1.2 moment it is higher than that, between1.2 and 1.4 moment it is higher than that, between 1.2 and 1.4 but it varies widely not only according to different age groups but different parts of the country. the warning there could be 25,000 patients in hospital is really stark, that is higher than the numbers are seen at the peak and if we are talking about having these numbers for a sustained period of time, that would put the nhs under huge pressure. we are already seeing some hospitals cancelling some routine work but i would say that none of this is a given, it is dependent on how much infection there is in the community. what we have seen are just some signs that the numbers of cases still increasing but it might be levelling off and that will translate in the coming weeks to admissions slowing and hopefully the numbers of deaths slowing. as fears

of the numbers rising in the coming weeks and months continue, also a big focus on what is going to be happening and possible at christmas. of course, it's notjust christmas — many more celebrations in the coming weeks and months will be affected by the pandemic. for lots of families in the uk, winter festivities usually start with halloween, which is this saturday. this year trick or treating is out of the question in many parts of the uk under tighter restrictions. bonfire night is also looking very different, with organised displays cancelled, or operating as drive—thru events. diwali takes place on saturday 14th november. as it stands, families in most parts of the uk will be unable to come together to celebrate the hindu festival of lights. in december, millions of people in the uk celebrate christmas and the jewish festival of hanukkah. let's speak to our political correspondentjessica parker. the government of course under pressure to try and give people a little glimmer of hope as these festivities are due to unfold and

people want to plan what they are doing that this apparent leaked sage advice on the front pages posing more grim warnings? absolutely and i think that there is now pressure on the government to explain a bit more about what its approach will be over the coming weeks and months given the coming weeks and months given the concern about potentially rising to covid rates and the impact of it and usually people at this time of year wa nt to and usually people at this time of year want to make plans for the festive season, work out which family they might spend time with over christmas. what ministers are saying at the moment is that it is too early to say exactly what will happen in two months' time because covid changes things so quickly but there has been a call from the liberal democrats and the alliance party of northern ireland for a kind of four nations summit so all the leaders of scotland, wales, northern ireland and england can agree a consistent way forward because people will be travelling across the uk. giving his reaction to that

today, environment secretary george eustice. i am sure we will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. interestingly, george eustice saying people might not be able to meet in the larger groups they normally would, a clear suggestion from a cabinet minister that restrictions the like of which we see at the moment, the rule of six for example, could still be in place during the festive season. i also want to pick up festive season. i also want to pick up on the fact that we have had news from rishi sunak who has tweeted saying he will be delivering the 2020 spending review alongside the obr forecast on the 25th of november. yes, the spending review alongside the office for budget responsibility forecast, setting plans for spending for next year, a relatively short review. we knew

that was the likely case because at the moment, planning for the longer term for the government, they are saying it is potentially difficult because of coronavirus and its unprecedented impact on the economy. of course we have already seen the chancellor come out with successive plans for the winter in the last month and a half and having to change tack slightly to adjust to the changing circumstances. he has of course at times been accused by times of groups by the labour party are being too slow to act and not providing enough support but it will be interesting to see what the government spending priorities are in the coming year and whether it is a plant they can stick to over 12 months given how changeable things have already been —— it is a plan. thank you. and in half an hour we'll be getting more on what the latest numbers mean for a second wave of coronavirus with leading statistician professor david spiegelhalter, the winton professor of the public understanding of risk at the university of cambridge.

the head of the uk vaccine task force said there could be ed buxton before christmas but 2021 launch is more likely. she said vaccine could be approved for you soon and the uk was well positioned and told me the first covid vaccines could be similarto first covid vaccines could be similar to current flu jabs in nature, giving a short initial burst of protection but it would need to be updated regularly. they are not 100% protective and they don't provide protection for more than several months to a year. i think what we will end up with is something where we can manage this disease, we need to stop it from being a lethal disease that is causing a global shutdown, to something that is manageable where we can both prevent infection as well as reduce the severity of symptoms if infection actually takes place. when do you think we will get

the information we need on whether vaccines are safe and whether they work? i wish i could give you a firm answer. what i can say is the front running vaccines will have completed 01’ running vaccines will have completed or have completed their clinical trial enrolment. by november, we should have at least the front running vaccines which includes 0xford running vaccines which includes oxford and also the prize back to where they having completed enrolment but the two parts we don't know is whether or not have been sufficient infections in those clinical trials to be able to statistically show that people who have received eight vaccine are protected against those who have not and of course the holy grail question is do the vaccines work. but i have to say that i am optimistic. i think it's important we manage expectations, that this is not likely to be a one and done, a silver bullet that will put everything back to rights immediately. but i do think, based on the data generated so far, we

have room to be optimistic, and we must not rush it. we need to ensure that everything is done safely and properly and we are in a good position, the uk is well positioned. realistically, when can people expect to be offered vaccinations in the uk? if the first two vaccines, either of them, show they are safe and effective, i think there is a possibility that vaccine roll—out will start this side of christmas but otherwise i think it's more realistic to expect it to be early next year. and who would be given them first as a priority? that is a matter for the department of health who works with an expert committee called the jcvi who works with an expert committee called thejcvi the joint committee on backs and immunisations and they advise the government and they have put on that website the initial advice or privatisation obviously in the absence of the final clinical data so it might change, but they

have prioritised the care home residents and workers, front line health care workers, and the over 805. then their priorities go down roughly in age order including those adults with severe underlying diseases. is there not a risk in rushing out to give back seems to people who are already quite vulnerable if they are old or have health issues, given the vaccine has been produced incredibly fast, we ju5t been produced incredibly fast, we just don't know the long—term consequences, a bit like we didn't know about long covid at the beginning. as i said, the safety trials have not been compromised, they have not been ru5hed, no changes to the high standards they have not been rushed, no changes to the high standards of safety have ta ken changes to the high standards of safety have taken place in the development of these vaccines. again, iam development of these vaccines. again, i am not concerned that the safety has been compromised. but we don't know... we might be able to do initial tests on the side effects but we don't know what the side—effects are in a year or five yea rs side—effects are in a year or five years 01’ side—effects are in a year or five years or ten years. no, we don't know and we need to run those

studies to see, but that is why the jcvi has recommended that the people that receive the vaccines are those who are most at risk from infection. yes, we don't know what the consequences might be in five or ten yea rs consequences might be in five or ten years but the fact is that if these vulnerable people have risk of severe mortality or morbidity if they get the infection, i think that is something that each individual person and the government and the jcvi need to consider. but you do need to think about that if you take the mrna vaccine, that is in the body for a very short time before it is degraded. biologically, i think it is unlikely there will be a lot of long—term consequences but of course we cannot say that until we have actually run the studies and looked at them. and given there is a lwa ys looked at them. and given there is always that risk, can you explain to me briefly what the different

vaccines are because they work with different mechanisms, or are any of them live jabs, like you sometimes get a reaction to the flu jab? the two classes of vaccines, one is and add a note vaccine which is a virus that gets into the cells and gets a spike protein conflated by the cells and that's how you make the protein. there are different ways of exploding the body to a viral covid protein. that bias is at the same as the oxford that is what they are as a viable approach. the mrna approach, instead of bringing in the genetic material with a virus, it's literally just injected genetic material with a virus, it's literallyjust injected in so the body makes their own protein. you could just have vaccines where you inject protein itself, that is what the nova backs vaccine is together with the gsk vaccine and you could also have inactivated whole virus

when you literally grow up covid—19 do it in active and that is the vaccine itself. they are all different ways of exposing the immune system to the viral proteins in order to elicit an immune response and we don't know which of any of these vaccine formats will be the most potent, stimulating the strongest immune response, or which may provoke the longest lasting immune response. that is why in the uk what we have done is to build a portfolio of six different vaccines across these four different formats so we can maximise our chances of having a successful vaccine that will work for everybody. it may be that different vaccines will work for different people. the older people's immune system is not as robust, it has got tired compared with eight young person's, so it might be that we might have different vaccines for different people. that was kate bingham

talking to me earlier, who is chair of the uk vaccines task force, fascinating to talk with her to get the latest. a lot of uncertainty in how we progress but a lot of incredibly urgent and important work going on with vaccines. we can move away from covert briefly to the us. —— from covid. there's been a second night of unrest in the us city of philadelphia after the fatal police shooting of a black man. police say officers opened fire on 27—year—old walter wallace there's been a second night of unrest in the us city police say officers opened fire on 27—year—old walter wallace when he ignored orders to drop a knife he was holding. demonstrators say he was having a mental health problem. philadelphia is the biggest city in pennsylvania which is a key swing state in next week's presidential election. mark lobel has the latest. philadelphia — burning... bleeding... and looting. with the white house's blessing, state authorities are welcoming in the national guard, after hundreds of protesters face

down right police for a second night, injuring dozens of officers. with tensions high after another controversial police shooting. it is tiring, how much we have seen it. sincejune we have been saying we will tear the system down if we don't get change but it has been months and months and it's still happening. on monday afternoon, in the neighbourhood of cobbs creek in west philadelphia, this happened. two officers respond to a report of a man with a weapon. he breaks free from his mother after she says she tried to shield him. police say they then tell the 27—year—old to drop his weapon. then this... shooting. he was pronounced dead at hospital. his father asked later why police did not first use a taser.

philadelphia's mayor called it a tragic incident, pledging a full investigation. this is not only a matter that is being carefully considered by the head of our special investigations unit and the assigned prosecutor, it's a matter that i am looking at personally and carefully. this office has made clear that we believe in fairness, we believe in evenhanded justice. we are not out to cover for anybody and we are not out to get anybody. in a statement released on tuesday, joe biden and kamala harris said... at the same time, they added addressing the looting... as walter wallace junior‘s family mourn the tragic early end of a father, twin and son, they have come forward to call for a stop to the chaos and violence, pleading with philadelphians

to show them and the city some kind of respect. mark lobel, bbc news. a search operation is expected to continue in the english channel this morning, after a migrant boat sank off the coast of dunkirk yesterday. two children aged five and eight were killed, along with two adults. more than a dozen others were taken to hospital, but french authorities believe more could still be missing. 0ur news reporter, simonjones has been in dover and briught us up to dat eon the latest developmenst. there are some pretty grim conditions in the channel this morning, the wind whipping up and it was very much like that yesterday morning when this boat carrying around 20 people set out from northern france. it did not get very far on its journey before it began sinking. that prompted a huge response from the emergency services. they managed to transport 15 people to hospital but sadly four people lost their lives. the big fear has been that other

people might be unaccounted for. the search continued throughout yesterday, it was stood down at around 5pm when light faded. we are hearing from french authorities that they are ready to react to any further information regarding missing people but i think the reality now is that we are now more than 24 hours on since the boat capsized, so if there are more people missing, we are likely to be talking about a recovery rather than a rescue operation. politicians on this side of the channel such as the prime minister and home secretary priti patel have been talking about this terrible event, in their words, saying they will work closer than ever with the french authorities to try to tackle the people smugglers they believe are organising these crossings. and today the clandestine channel threat commander, dan 0'mahoney,

who has been given the task by the government of trying to make this route unviable, is heading to france to talk to counterparts. much to discuss but charities are saying this was a tragedy waiting to happen and they say that action is needed now to stop more lives being lost in the weeks and months to come. clare moseley is the founder of care 4 calais, a refugees crisis charity. shejoins me from calais. it is tragic to see two young children lose their life like this, the family must have been utterly desperate so who do you blame for this latest tragic loss of life?|j really believe, this is horrific but it did not need to happen. these are ordinary people. the parents are just looking for safety for their family, the children just want to go to school and it didn't need to happen. the people smugglers are a problem but they are a symptom, not a cause, of an underlying situation, a cause, of an underlying situation, a situation where ordinary people feel they have no option other than

to ta ke feel they have no option other than to take this terrible journey. believe me, they don't want to. if they had an alternative, they wouldn't do it and that's the problem, there is no alternative. if we created an alternative by having asylu m we created an alternative by having asylum claims heard, they would not do this, and that's the way to solve this problem, to give them an alternative. the policies that we are flowing, we have been following them for years now and nothing has changed. —— we are following. it's evident they are not working and it's time to try something new. isn't the fact that all of these families have come to europe and they could claim asylum in those countries, that is where they are supposed to claim asylum, not in the uk which is not their first port of arrival? the vast majority of them do, there are so many more families claiming asylum in europe and even in france where every year they take three orfour times as in france where every year they take three or four times as many refugees as the uk does ponder the question for me is why the uk should take so many fewer refugees than any other country in europe, so many fewer

than france? i know people in the uk ca re than france? i know people in the uk care about refugees, everything i see in myjob and all our volunteers, people who donate and support us, people in the uk care andi support us, people in the uk care and i know the people in the uk don't care less than people in front so why do we take so many fewer refugees? why can't we take some? we do take huge numbers, we do give homes and safe passage to some people in need but the point is that people in need but the point is that people don't arrive in the uk in the first place. unless there is some kind of uk white agreement, they should not be coming here at all. know, we don't actually take huge numbers of refugees, no matter what table you look at, the uk is pretty far down. at the ones that do try to come to the uk normally have a strong reason because they wouldn't, these are ordinary people, normal families. white honour -- why are they not staying in france and claiming asylum there? the reasons

tend to be either because they have family ties to the uk, because they are such a strong bond, especially when you have been through something as traumatic as war or persecution, sometimes it is due to language or other factors but there is always a really strong reason. you don't get ina really strong reason. you don't get in a boat and you most certainly don't put your children in a boat in that kind of danger unless you have a very strong reason. it's not on a whim, not for something small, they have a strong reason for it or they wouldn't do it. it is only a very small percentage. front is taking three orfour times as small percentage. front is taking three or four times as many refugees every single year than we are —— france is taking to ponder why can't we ta ke france is taking to ponder why can't we take some, the ones with the strong ties to the uk? if you will at —— allow people to apply outside the uk so they did not have to make those perilous crossings, wouldn't you risk getting a huge number of applicants which would overwhelm the country and be extremely expensive? every other country in europe is able to take refugees without having

able to take refugees without having a stretch of water in between them and the refugees. it is possible, the whole of the rest of europe does it, we arejust the whole of the rest of europe does it, we are just unique in the whole of the rest of europe does it, we arejust unique in having this stretch of water. but we have not got to that point yet, not at a point where we are overwhelmed, nowhere near that and it would be great to have the conversation about how many refugees we could take rather than panicking and saying in the future, what if too many come. firstly we need to have a sensible and reasonable conversation about what we can do to help... but immigration has not been debated in a sensible or reasonable terms. we have seen in the brexit debate how divisive it has been. that is the whole problem, that we have been overwhelmed by fear and misinformation and never had an civil conversation. but we are all adults we can have that sensible conversation and that it takes people dying for us to do that? families and children dying for us to have a sensible conversation? claire mosley, founder of care four calais, thank you for your time.

let's turn to the coronavirus pandemic in europe now where, according to the world health organisation, the number of daily deaths has risen by nearly forty percent compared to last week. italian police have clashed with protestors angry at new coronavirus restrictions. and in france, another national lockdown may soon be announced. aru na iyengar reports. the russian foreign minister, sergey lavrov, now self—isolating of the come into contact with someone who tested positive for coronavirus. his country has reached over 16,000 daily cases of the virus. the government is prohibiting opening restau ra nts government is prohibiting opening restaurants at night and making wearing face masks mandatory in public. a similar measure now enforced in the czech republic, which is witnessing a huge surge in coronavirus cases and is introducing a night—time curfew from wednesday evening. with the number of coronavirus cases also rapidly

growing in lithuania, there are fears hospital wards will not be able to cope. translation: the number of patients is increasing everyday. the situation is critical as we are already exceeding our usual maximum capacity of 70%, having reached a bed occupancy level of 80%. with hungary were putting over 2000 new infections in 24 hours, fines for a breach of quarantine are increasingly. —— hungry reporting. to tackle a surge in swiss cases, the government is expected to announce nationwide restrictions on wednesday, as police enforce a new curfew in brussels. the eu commission based there is expected to recommend how to better coordinate the block's testing strategies, contact tracing and quarantining measures. in germany, chancellor angela merkel is excited to propose a light lockdown at crisis talks on wednesday ——

expected to propose put up with the leaders of the country but 16 states, with bars and restaurant likely to shut but the school is staying open. the speculation is also that that france might be heading for another lockdown. emmanuel macron is due to announce their next move after he consulted party leaders. translation: we feel we are moving towards a confinement which will last a few weeks. the government is trying to find ways to protect schools, public services, hospitals and to maintain a semblance of economic life. meanwhile, protests continued overnight in italy at the new restrictions introduced there. hello, this is bbc news. i'm geeta guru—murthy. the headlines:

growing pressure on the uk government for more clarity on coronavirus restrictions in the lead up to christmas — after uk deaths hit their highest level for five months. but the environment secretary says the right measures are in place to give people a good festive season. i'm sure we will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet, but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. a leaked document from the uk government scientific advisors warns that 25,000 people could be in hospital in the uk with the virus by the end of november. in europe — leaders prepare to announce tighter coronavirus restrictions as infections surge across the continent, with an imminent nationwide lockdown likely in france and bars and restaurants to close in germany.

the head of the uk's vaccine trial says there's a possibility a vaccine could be rolled out before christmas. there's been a second night of unrest in philadelphia after another black man was shot dead by police. looting and violence broke out after hundreds of people since the start of the pandemic, questions have continued to be asked as to how the virus began and how it spread. whilst many theories have been circulating, the vast majority of scientists agree that it crossed into humans from an animal species — most likely, a bat. well, we can speak now to professor wang linfa, from the emerging infectious diseases programme at duke—nus medical school in singapore. professor wang is one of the world's leading authorities on bat—borne diseases. he was in wuhan just as covid—19 are starting to spread from the city right across the world. thank you so much forjoining us. incredible you are in wuhan injanuary. did you know about covid whilst you are there? yes, i arrived on the 14th

and in the early morning of the 18th. in those days, it is not called covid—19. it is called novo coronavirus. we thought the worst we would have is like sars 17 years ago. did you realise there was human—to—human transmission? ago. did you realise there was human-to-human transmission? no, according to the official information at that time, it said there was no evidence of significant human—to—human transmission. the other fingers human—to—human transmission. the otherfingers on the human—to—human transmission. the other fingers on the ground, i have been a scientist working in this field for many years and you just don't fear it is as serious as it would be later. so i was there. i mean, the hosts invited me to a restau ra nt mean, the hosts invited me to a restaurant every night, crowded. and i used to go on the subway and i was in the hotel. 0nly i used to go on the subway and i was in the hotel. only on the early morning of the 18th when i left wuhan, the airport was fully guarded. you cannot go to your

check—in, you have to line up one by one and you have to go through a thermometer temperature scanner three times. so that is where you start to realise the city and the authority is making sure that nobody leaves the city if they have a fever already. so that is on the 18th and of course, we all knew later the host city was shut down. what do you believe has caused this virus in the first place, do you think it did come from a bat? i think it originated from bats, but in our terminology, we say the system for viruses from bats, but the immediate virus, we still could not find. we found a virus in bats 96% identical ata found a virus in bats 96% identical at a genetic level, but we need to find another virus which is 99.9% genetic identical and we have not found that. so the theory is a bat virus, but it may have happened long

before the covid—19 started in december in wuhan. when you think it might have started ? december in wuhan. when you think it might have started? oh, it is very, very ha rd to might have started? oh, it is very, very hard to predict from what we have now. so, some theories suggest this virus may jump have now. so, some theories suggest this virus mayjump to humans at least half a year before december 2019 because the virus looks like it has already adapted to human transmission. but in science, you have a theory and you have data, right? we have lots of theory, but we don't have conclusive data to prove or disprove such a theory. to be clear, are you saying it originated in bats, but it might have gone to another species and then to humans? that's right. for most bat—borne viruses we know and i personally have been involved with one in australia and in malaysia and the sars virus in china and the mers virus in the middle east. they all jumped from bats to humans via an

intermediate host. it can be a host, it can be a pig, a camel, but we don't know what that animal is for covid—19. don't know what that animal is for covid-19. so from what you have learned, what is your sense as to how much we can combat the spread of this virus and have new viruses from bats and coming into humans? yes, for the current virus obviously, we a lwa ys for the current virus obviously, we always compare with sars. it is not as lethal as sars, but it is more transmissible. i think without a vaccine, social distancing, wearing masks and certain restrictions of activities, that is the only way to contain it right now. in terms of how to prevent or mitigate a future pandemic with a similar virus, i think really what we need is much more transparent collaboration internationally. i think without any

doubt, covid—19 in the early days, i think the communication and also international collaboration was just not sufficient, to make my view. finally, wuhan now, are you in touch with what is going on at the moment, have they opened up as we have been hearing? have they reduced the transmission completely? yes, i had very close contact in wuhan, i have not been physically there because i am not allowed to travel out of singapore. but within china, i have collaborated with scientists. they have gone from wuhan to shanghai. so within china, i think the border used to have very strict borders across different cities or provinces. now it is all removed. i wish i could touch you for longer. for now, we have to leave it, thank you very much indeed professor wang. thank you.

the uk comes under increasing pressure for more clarity. coronavirus deaths have hit their highest level for months and there isa highest level for months and there is a warning from scientific advisers 25,000 people could be in hospital by the end of next month. the environment secretary george eustice would people may not be to get —— be able to get together in the larger groups they would normally. we can talk more about this now with sir david spiegelhalter, a professor of statistics at the university of cambridge. thanks for your time. when you look at the numbers being bandied around today, 25,000 people in hospital by the end of november in the uk, would you agree with that prediction?m looked very seriously indeed. i have looked very seriously indeed. i have looked at the deaths. will had a very large number reported yesterday, but they are going over 150 a day and doubling every two, three weeks and that means it is quite plausible that by the end of next month, there would be 500 deaths a day. we must remember the

deaths a day. we must remember the death rate for people in hospital has gone down dramatically. treatments have massively improved. and so that also means that actually, the really severe pressure on hospitals is clearly going to happen. so can make you think that with the current measures, we are looking at 500 deaths a day, so what should happen to stop that?|j looking at 500 deaths a day, so what should happen to stop that? i don't say about what should happen, there are measures at the moment and they obviously are having a big effect. rates are going down in nottingham and in other places which have been subject to high measures. but on the whole, they are still creeping up. slowly, relatively slowly, every two to three weeks, it is doubling. and our cases are going up much slower for example than in germany or france or other places. this is not our problem, this is across a wide range of countries. the really big

challenge by this increase. so measures are working, but they are not stopping the increase. in your view, would a nationwide lockdown, is that the only way ultimately to stop the increase because it suggests if these measures are not working, people are not listening to the rules of they are just impossible to totally follow? ok, i am nota impossible to totally follow? ok, i am not a model impossible to totally follow? ok, i am nota modeland i impossible to totally follow? ok, i am not a model and i don't say what would be the effect of different interventions. what is extremely interesting is that wales has gone for a firebreak until november the 17th, i think it was. so that is what statisticians call a natural experiment. we have a comparison now between wales and england and this will enable us really to evaluate quite strongly what the effect of at least a temporary lockdown. 0n the rate of new cases and subsequent hospitalisations and deaths. i am

not going to say now, but that will help us to learn a huge amount from what is going on at the moment. are you surprised to see the numbers do what they are doing? we are getting big regional variations. what they are doing? we are getting big regionalvariations. it what they are doing? we are getting big regional variations. it is massive variations. i live in cambridge and rates around me are very low, i have just cambridge and rates around me are very low, i havejust checked. i go half a mile down the road into central cambridge and the rates are ten times as high as around me at the moment. so the variation just from a very local area is quite extraordinary. but of course, that is what we should expect from something that is an infectious condition and depends crucially on people '5 behaviour. can ijust add one positive know into this discussion? the fact that about flu. normally in a bad flu year as we had a few years ago, there were 22,000 extra deaths in england and normal yet might be seven or 10,000 extra

deaths in england. it is quite possible we will not see serious flu this winter. that southern hemisphere countries, chile, south africa, australia, they hardly had any during their winter which has just passed. although we are just starting the flu season, so far, there is almost non—around at all. and that is a good sign and it is not at all surprising, i don't think, because the measures we are taking which are sufficient to reduce the r, the magic r number four coronavirus from three may be down to1.3, 1.4, four coronavirus from three may be down to 1.3, 1.4, should be sufficient to bring the r four flew down below one because flu is so much less infectious than coronavirus. so the one positive is that we may have a very low flu number this year which may save lives but we are faced with a serious number of deaths from covid. john edmunds said tens of thousand andi john edmunds said tens of thousand and i don't think that is implausible. that is a sombre

warning of course, thank you very much, professor david spiegelhalter. thank you so much. crisis talks take place in germany today to decide what measures should be taken to halt the spread of coronavirus. the german chancellor, angela merkel, is expected to propose that all restaurants and bars be closed down in one week's time. let's talk now to professor dirk brockmann, from the robert koch institute, which is germany's national disease control centre. thank you forjoining us. germany was seen to be doing incredibly well within europe. has something gone wrong? well, that is very hard to say. when we compare it to other countries, there are quite a number of similarities, too. we have all had a first wave and then a comparatively low periods during the summerand comparatively low periods during the summer and then a second wave that is substantially more intense than the first wave. we have seen this in another country —— countries, germany started late into this development and is now seen

exponential increases in the case counts. so does that mean that opening up behaviour, allowing more freedom after that initial clamp—down was a mistake? that is very hard to tell. it could be just that is very hard to tell. it could bejust an that is very hard to tell. it could be just an intrinsic effect that people are getting tired of the corona crisis and they are going back to their normal behaviour. even without noticing it. there was the release of lockdown and people behaved normally and in the summer, they were mostly outside. then the numbers started climbing again and now we have the second wave and eve ryo ne now we have the second wave and everyone is concerned about this. and trying to design measures to contain this. in terms of where germany is compared with other european nations, the numbers are perhaps still better than some of the comparators. what has germany done that we can learn from, what has it done right? i think during

the first wave, it was clear that the first wave, it was clear that the reaction came swift and intense. and that helped us. during the first pa rt and that helped us. during the first part of the pandemic in march and april. and this is potentially one of the reasons why the case count was low during the summer and also the contact tracing was efficient. that was done by public health officials. but now we see an increase again and now the same kind of measures need to be put in place, it seems. so when you said that people might be getting fatigued, that's true of probably most of us. yet we all knew that this winter season was going to be more dangerous commercially governments around the world coming in the northern hemisphere have to be really tough and just say, look, we are going to lock down for a few months? well, there are various different models that all say essentially the same thing. and that is that the earlier we react to this

exponential growth during the second wave, the better. and when we apply a swift but intense lockdown, that only lasts for two weeks or maybe three weeks, the effects would be much, much better and beneficial than having gradual containment measures. because if they don't work and some countries have shown that a mild lockdown doesn't work so well, israel is a good example, then eventually, when the numbers increase even further, we have to impose a strict lockdown anyway. indeed. professor dirk brockmann from the rubber cup institute in germany, many thanks indeed. you're welcome. some numbers coming in from belgium —— the robert koch institute. highest number of hospitalisations in a single day since the pandemic began, and she's taken a 689 admissions, that is higher than during the first wave of the virus. in much the 28th, in

total in belgium, 5554 patients were in hospital —— the 28th of march. not far short of the previous peak in april. so pretty alarming numbers. between the 18 and the 24th of october, an average of 59 deaths per day. belgian of course has struggled in recent months with its covid numbers. some of the world's longest and tightest covid—19 restrictions have been lifted in the australian state of victoria. five million people in melbourne can now return to shops, pubs, and restaurants — for the first time in nearly four months. in recent days, no new cases have been reported. 0ur australia correspondent, shaimaa khalil, reports i now officially declare melbourne restaurants open for business. cheering it's the moment they've waited months for. i'm so excited to enjoy my first pint of guinness. it's been far too long. it feels really surreal.

0n the way here, we werejust like... we're in anuba. yeah, it feels like we're in anuba, but are we allowed to be in anuba? because usually, you're not allowed to go anywhere. so this is like, "oh, what are you doing? !" i hope that we can hang onto this feeling that, you know, we're just grateful for even being able to come to our favourite restaurant, our neighbourhood pub again. this was unimaginable only a few weeks ago. customers flooding into shops that have been closed since august. what an exciting day to be able to open up to our melbourne customers. we've really been awaiting this day for very long, so a big day for us. but getting here hasn't been easy. this was one of the world's longest and strictest lockdowns. it devastated the local economy, but has been credited for containing the virus. it's not clear when people will be able to travel freely to and from victoria.

here in new south wales, the premier says the real test is going to be what happens with case numbers now that things are opening up. victoria was the epicentre of australia's second wave, and it will be a while before things get back to normal. for now, people are enjoying the simple pleasures they used to take for granted. shaimaa khalil, bbc news, sydney. there's less than a week to go in the us presidential election campaign. democratjoe biden has taken his campaign to the state of georgia, normally a republican stronghold but one which they believe could switch allegiance. trump has been in wisconsin and nebraska. in the georgian hot springs town where franklin roosevelt once took treatment for polio, and democrat, joe biden, pledged to heal the

country's wounds. anger and suspicion are growing. and our wounds are getting deeper. and many wonder has it gone too far? that we have passed a point of no return. as —— has the heart of this nation turned to stone? i don't think so. two socially distanced rallies here are being seen as a sign of confidence on the part of the biden team. not since bill clinton back in 1982 has georgia supported a democrat in a presidential election. but polls put the two candidates neck and neck. little social distancing in evidence here by comparison and many at this trump rally were also without masks. donald trump is looking to defend the midwestern states of michigan and wisconsin, states he narrowly won four years ago, and despite

trailing in the polls, he clearly believes history will repeat itself. you are going to see a giant red wave. 0n you are going to see a giant red wave. on tuesday. you're going to see a red wave like they've never seen before and they saw a very —— a very big one, i tell you what, they got a glimpse of four years ago. remember, they said, where did these people come from? where did they come from? a little while later, the trump campaign was dealt a setback when its website was taken over by hackers who claims to have information that discredited the president and the donaldj trump website was off—line completely for 30 minutes and the campaign subsequently released a statement saying it had been defaced and they we re saying it had been defaced and they were working with law enforcement to investigate the source of the attack. that sensitive data had been compromised. meanwhile, americans are already voting in record numbers. nearly 17 million people have already cast their ballot —— 70

million. nearly half the total that voted in the presidential election four years ago. counting might take days or even weeks, to the consternation of donald trump, who repeated his opposition to delaying the outcome in order to count millions of postal votes. he wants a result on election night, setting the stage for a battle that could end up in the courts. the last few months of the year traditionally bring with them times to celebrate and get together with family and friends. but this year, many cultural and religious celebrations have been hampered by coronavirus restrictions. each november, the city of leicester hosts one of the largest diwali celebrations in the uk. geeta pendse has been to find out how the festival of lights will be different this year. the lights are up, but the hindu, sikh and jain festival of diwali will be very different this year. here in leicester,

which is currently in tier 2, no official lights switch—on and no large gatherings. a world away from what the city's golden mile is famous for, usually attracting around 45,000 people for one of the largest celebrations outside of india. from decorations to fireworks, this family business has been going for 40 years, and things are very slow. people are scared to come out. and obviously, people that do come out, it's a lot less than it usually was. i mean, compare that to last year, diwali time the last two weeks, you know, we have so many people who have stopped coming in. obviously, this year is far different. you'll see on the road. i think every store here is kind of struggling a little bit in terms of just with the footfall itself. next door, arinda's boutique is also suffering. she says it's notjust about profit, but the way people are feeling. honestly, there is such a buzz on this road at diwali time, and there's now virtually no—one on the roads. so, yeah, it's affecting our business quite a lot.

in a cafe close by, three generations enjoying a meal out. normally, this time of year would be a chance to connect with family from all over, but with households not allowed to mix indoors, that's not happening and plans are compromised. well, we're a little bit deflated because we can't do all the things that we would normally do and, erm... well, we can still put candles around the house. we could still put candles around the house. the family that are abroad, we had a virtual get—together to celebrate, whereas previously, we've never done that. a lot of families are going virtual celebrations, so maybe a new way of celebrating. it's about spending time with your immediate family. you've just got to adapt and stay safe. so, us mixing and all of that, it's all well and good, but we have to look out for ourselves and be safe and make sure other people don't catch the virus, because that would be devastating. normally, this community centre would be at the heart

of the diwali celebrations, showcasing a form of indian artwork known as rangoli, but this year, it's a covid testing centre — a real sign of the times. but despite this, the city council here are trying to keep the diwali spirit alive by encouraging people to take part in a virtual event. this year, we are unable to offer diwali as we would have liked. so, therefore, we are offering a virtual diwali — a recorded programme, a one—hour video for the people of leicester, so that they can enjoy diwali in their homes, with theirfamilies. but leicester has brought back the wheel of light, a familiar part of diwali celebrations, now made covid—secure. a much quieterfestival, reflecting the world as we know it now. geeta pendse, bbc news, leicester.

and hindus havejust had another festival which was much quieter in the uk and india and right around the uk and india and right around the world. we somehow have to manage in these difficult times. more online, of course. you're watching bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather, with nick miller. hello. most of us will get to see some sunshine at some stage of today, but there are heavy showers around. sunshine at some stage of today, some of those may be thundery, accompanied by gusty winds, and low pressure very much in charge of our weather for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with further spells of rain and wind. this area of low pressure driving our weather today, pushing in these showers on a fresh to strong south—westerly wind. now, because of the wind direction, most of the showers will be towards the south and west of the uk. again, some heavy, thundery, perhaps with hale. some, though, on the wind, will push further east, but we'll see fewe showers towards north—east england and north scotland compared with elsewhere. these are average wind speeds.

quite widely, they're gusting 35 to 40 mph, nearer 50 along some southern and western coasts. it's a cooler day, particularly for england and wales. and really rough and high seas in the west, particularly into western scotland where, into the first part of the night, the showers merge to give a longer spell of rain. clearer skies to the east overnight will allow temperatures to drop away into low single figures. a milder night, though, to the west. and look at all this rain coming in again by the end of the night. that will push north and east across the uk during thursday, so for all bar the northern isles, some of the rain is going to be heavy again. the winds start to pick up once more. and even where the rain clears from a large part of england and wales later in the afternoon, we keep a good deal of cloud. still patchy rain and drizzle, but it will be turning milder. now, this weather front will just wriggle around as we go into friday, before gradually pushing its way southwards. the wriggling, though, will take place, we think, towards wales and north—west england, where another spell of heavy rain — at least, during the first part of friday — will lift the rain totals, bring a risk of some flooding and disruption.

some of the higher totals will be into the hills. that gradually eases its way southwards during friday. behind it, brighter skies for scotland and northern ireland, with a few showers. and a really mild day, despite the cloud, across the east and south—east of england. a bit of a break for a time on friday night, it doesn't last very long. a fresh area of low pressure going to bring in some even windier weather during saturday. and again, more heavy rain. some heavy and perhaps torrential bursts of rain sweeping east across the uk, with strong squally winds as well. very mild start to the weekend, though, with some places still with temperatures into the high teens.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 11. growing pressure on the government for more clarity on covid—19 restrictions in the lead up to christmas — after uk deaths hit their highest level for five months. the environment secretary says the right measures are in place to give people a good festive season. i'm sure that will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet. but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. a leaked document from government scientific advisors warns that 25,000 people could be in hospital in the uk with the virus by the end of november. the head of the uk's vaccine trial says there's a possibility a vaccine could be rolled

out before christmas. this is unlikely to be a silver bullet that will put to rights everything immediately. but with the data generated so far we have room to be optimistic. there's been a second night of unrest in philadelphia after another black man was shot dead by police. there's been a second night of unrest in philadelphia after another black man was shot dead by police. looting and violence broke out after hundreds of people took to the streets. who were furloughed during lockdown have since lost theirjobs — good morning and welcome to bbc news. there's growing pressure on the government for more clarity on coronavirus restrictions

in the lead up to christmas — after uk deaths hit their highest level for five months. 367 deaths linked to the virus were recorded, as were nearly 23,000 more cases. various papers are reporting new sage analysis saying 25,000 people will be in hospital with coronavirus by the end of next month. sage member & former chief scientific adviser sir mark walport says that it is "certainly not unrealistic". nottinghamand the surrounding areas of rushcliffe, gedling and broxtowe are moving into the top tier of covid restrictions. the measures come in at one minute past midnight. about eight million people in england will be living in the tier three — "very high" alert level by the end of the week. meanwhile, the leaders of the uk's four nations are being urged to agree on uniform guidance to allow people to celebrate christmas with family and friends safely.

the liberal democrats and the alliance party of northern ireland say the governments have a duty to "explore workable solutions" for the festive period. the head of the uk's vaccines taskforce, kate bingham, has warned that we might never develop a vaccine against covid—19 and cautioned against over—optimism. writing in the lancet medical journal, she warned that if a vaccine is approved, the first generation is likely to be imperfect, could reduce symptoms rather than prevent infection and might not work for everyone. 0ur health correspondent nick triggle is here — stark news this morning about predictions. tell us what they are. this is modelling that is given to the government by its advisers on sage. at the heart is the fact that we are seeing a slow, gradual but sustained rise in cases, hospital admissions and sadly deaths. they are doubling every two weeks or so.

backin are doubling every two weeks or so. back in the spring peak, we saw cases and deaths rising more rapidly, and what happened was lockdown reduce that. the average number of people and infect in—person passes the virus passes on to fell from three to one. because the government is trying to keep society open, keeping schools and businesses rising, that infection number is around 1.5. what has been predicted by these advisers is a longer peak. but a lower peak. 0ne suggestion is that we could see deaths peak at 500 and they could stay at that level for weeks or months. at moment we are around 200 deaths a day. it is around 200 deaths a day. it is around 200 deaths a day on average. the peak backin deaths a day on average. the peak back in spring was 1000 but it did not last long. the warning that they

speak in this winter could be much longer. currently, when you look at the statistics, it looks like that the statistics, it looks like that the number of cases are dramatically high but the number of deaths the lower. it sounds like that has been providing a kind of false reassurance. providing a kind of false reassurance . yes. providing a kind of false reassurance. yes. when you think backin reassurance. yes. when you think back in the spring, we were not testing anywhere near the numbers of people we are, so we are picking up around 20,000, just over 20,000 infections a day on average. the true level is perhaps double that. some of the government surveillance figures show. the accurate figures in terms of comparing what is happening now with the peak as the hospital admissions. we have heard this morning that there could be 25,000 people in hospital in a matter of weeks. at the moment is —— it is just under 10,000. matter of weeks. at the moment is —— it isjust under 10,000. to put that into context, 25,000 with around one in six hospital beds occupied by

covid patients. hospitals will have to start cutting back on some of their routine back, knee and hip replacements, some of the cancer treatment. that is the last thing that nhs bosses want to do. hospitals in the uk have very little wriggle room, we do not have as many hospital beds as other european health systems so it means that the more covid patients we see, the bigger impact it has on the nhs. which is why there is such intense focus on this modelling and what the government should do about this. what about the nightingale hospitals? they are on standby. the one in manchester is due to start taking non—covid patients this week i understand. but one of the problems with the nightingales is how you staffed them. there is a finite number of staff obviously in the health service. if you take staff out of hospitals to work on the nightingales, that reduces what

hospitals can do. what we have seen with nightingale mane is that they have been used for different things. to have been used for diagnostic tests will stop the one in manchester is starting to take some patience about the nhs is at a very crucial point. —— patients. patience about the nhs is at a very crucial point. -- patients. thank you very much. of course, it's notjust christmas, many more celebrations in the coming weeks and months will be affected by the pandemic. for lots of families in the uk, winterfestivities usually start with halloween, which is this saturday. this year trick or treating is out of the question in many parts of the uk under tighter restrictions. bonfire night is also looking very different, with organised displays cancelled, or operating as drive—thru events. diwali takes place on saturday 14th november. as it stands, families in most parts of the uk will be unable to come together to celebrate the hindu festival of lights. in december, millions of people in the uk celebrate christmas and thejewish festival of hanukkah.

let's speak to our political correspondentjessica parker. people usually at this time of year wa nt to people usually at this time of year want to make their plans for the festive season. work out which family they might spend time with. 0ver christmas. what ministers are saying at the moment is it is too early to say what will happen in two months' time because covid changes thing so quickly. there has been a call from the liberal democrats and the alliance party in northern ireland for a four nations summit so all four leaders of scotland, wales, northern ireland and the uk can agree a consistent way forward. getting a reaction to that, the environment secretary, george eustace. i'm sure that they will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet. but they may not be able to get

together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. interestingly there people may not be able to meet in the larger groups that they normally would. a clear suggestion from a cabinet minister, the restrictions like we see at the moment, could still be in place over the festive season. in september — the chief scientific advisor to the government sir patrick vallance predicted the uk could face 50,000 cases a day by october without action. he used this graph to illustrate his point — and warned that — that volume of cases would lead to "200 plus deaths per day" in november. yesterday, the uk recorded another 367 deaths — which takes the seven—day average of deaths in the uk to 200. markjit is a professor of vaccine epidemiology at the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine — also a member of the government's sage sub—committee on modelling. what does that statistic tells us

about where we're headed with this? what we are seeing in deaths, each one is a tragedy and it reflects the number of cases we had three weeks ago. the deaths we will continue to have in the coming weeks will reflect what we are seeing with cases in the coming days. that figure that we have been hearing, 25,000 in hospital by the end of november, does that sound about right to you? that's what the modelling has been saying and as you saw from the graphs, so far it has been fairly accurate. 0bviously that assumes that everything continues as it is right now, that nothing changes. and on that front, yes, we are seeing these statistics, obviously with a large number of restrictions already in place. there are predictions that the whole country will be in tier 3 pretty soon. what would you say needs to be

done to deal with the situation?|j done to deal with the situation?” think these restrictions are working because the rate at which cases are going up is a lot slower than it was in march. the restrictions are bringing the rate of increase down. but we don't want a slow increase, we wa nt but we don't want a slow increase, we want a decrease restrictions may not be enough. we need to think about whether we want to wait for areas in the country to get to very high levels of cases and transmission and then go into tier 3 or actually we want to think about whether there is a way to try and stop this in its tracks right now. because as things stand, the predictions are of the second wave being more deadly than the first because, albeit lower numbers, over and more sustained period than we had before, is that how you see it? yes, the reason for that is if you

remember the lockdown, that was very drastic restrictions which brought down the number of cases, the number of transmission is very, very sharply down. right now we have some measures in place which are keeping the rate of transmission low, but because they haven't come right down, we are going to get over this, it will be very slowly. a lot of people are going to get infected in the meantime before we reach the level where cases go down. what do you believe is the right way for the policymakers to be handling this? sam in sage have been concerned that they have been reportedly they have been sidelined in favour of economic considerations. there is talk of and there has been some time about whether you shield the older and the vulnerable now and let the rest of society get more back to normal. 0bviously, what talking about, the

full lockdown which would bring it all down, but is it a price worth paying, what is your view?” all down, but is it a price worth paying, what is your view? i think thatis paying, what is your view? i think that is a value judgment. the decision—makers need to balance things like health, the economy. what i would say is that... under our current circumstances we will have many more cases and many more deaths. so that is something we need to consider. if we want to avert this we may need stronger measures. 0n the economic side, we also need to ta ke 0n the economic side, we also need to take into consideration it is not a direct trade—off. if the number of cases increased, this will have impact on the economy whether or not there are tighter restrictions. thank you very much indeed for joining is. thank you.

the head of the uk vaccines task force, says there's a possibility that there could be a vaccine roll—out in the uk before christmas, but that but an early 2021 launch is more likely. kate bingham says she is optimistic that the vaccine will be approved for use soon and that the uk is well positioned. speaking to my colleague geeta guru murthy — she said that the first covid—vaccines could be similar to the current flu vaccine in its nature giving a short initial boost but it would need to be given regularly. (sot next) boost but it would need to be given regularly. they are not 100% protective and they don't provide protection for more than several months to a year. i think what we will end up with is something where we can manage this disease, we need to stop it from being a lethal disease that is causing a global shutdown, to something that is manageable where we can both prevent infection as well as reduce the severity of symptoms if infection actually takes place. when do you think we will get the information we need on whether vaccines are safe and whether they work? i wish i could give you a firm answer.

what i can say is the front running vaccines will have completed or have completed their clinical trial enrolment. by november, we should have at least the front running vaccines which includes oxford and also the pfizer—biontech vaccine, where they will have completed enrolment but the two parts we don't know is whether or not have been sufficient infections in those clinical trials to be able to statistically show that people who have received a vaccine are protected against those who have not and of course the holy grail question is do the vaccines work. but i have to say that i am optimistic. i think it's important we do manage expectations, that this is not likely to be a one and done, a silver bullet that will put everything back to rights immediately. but i do think, based on the data generated so far, we have room to be optimistic, and we must not rush it. we need to ensure that everything is done safely and properly

and we are in a good position, the uk is well positioned. realistically, when can people expect to be offered vaccinations in the uk? if the first two vaccines, either of them, show they are both safe and effective, i think there is a possibility that vaccine roll—out will start this side of christmas but otherwise i think it's more realistic to expect it to be early next year. and who would be given them first as a priority? that is a matter for the department of health who works with an expert committee called thejcvi, thejoint committee on vaccinations and immunisations, and they advise the government on priorities and who should get it first and they have put on their website the initial advice or prioritisation, obviously in the absence of the final clinical data so it might change, but they have prioritised the care home residents and workers, front line health care workers, and the over 805. then their priorities go down

roughly in age order including those adults with severe underlying diseases. is there not a risk in rushing out to give vaccines to people who are already quite vulnerable if they are old or have health issues, given this vaccine has been produced incredibly fast, we just don't know the long—term consequences, a bit like we didn't know about long covid at the beginning. as i said, the safety trials have not been compromised, they have not been rushed, no changes to the high standards of safety have ta ken place in the development of these vaccines. again, i am not concerned that the safety has been compromised. but we don't know... we might be able to do initial tests on side—effects but we don't know what the side—effects are in a year or five years or ten years. no, we don't know and we need to run those studies to see,

but that is why the jcvi has recommended that the people that receive the vaccines are those who are most at risk from infection. yes, we don't know what the consequences might be in five or ten years but the fact is that if these vulnerable people have risk of severe mortality or morbidity if they get the infection, i think that is something that each individual person and the government and thejcvi need to consider. but you do need to think about that if you take the mrna vaccine, which is the pfizer—biontech vaccine, that is in the body for a very short time before it is degraded. biologically, i think it is unlikely there will be a lot of long—term consequences but of course we cannot say that until we have actually run the studies and looked at them. and given there is always that risk, can you explain to me briefly what the different vaccines are because they work with different mechanisms, or are any of them live jabs, like you sometimes get

a reaction to the flu jab? the two classes of vaccines, one is an adeno vaccine which is a virus that gets into the cells and gets a spike protein translated by the cells and that's how you make the protein. there are different ways of exposing the body to a viral covid protein. the adeno virus is the same as the oxford, that is what they are, a viral approach. the mrna approach, instead of bringing in the genetic material with a virus, it's literally just injected in so the body makes their own protein. you could just have vaccines where you inject protein itself, that is what the novavax vaccine is together with the gsk vaccine, and you could also have inactivated whole virus where you literally grow up covid—19, render it inactive and that is the vaccine itself.

they are all different ways of exposing the immune system to the viral proteins in order to elicit an immune response and we don't know which if any of these vaccine formats will be the most potent, stimulating the strongest immune response, or which may provoke the longest lasting immune response. that is why in the uk what we have done is to build a portfolio of six different vaccines across these four different formats so we can maximise our chances of having a successful vaccine that will work for everybody. it may be that different vaccines will work for different people. the older people's immune system is not as robust, it has got tired compared with a young person's, you know, a health care worker's immune system, so it may be that we might have different vaccines for different people. coming up at 2:20pm, we'll answer your questions on development, trials,

delivery and impact of a covid—19 vaccine. that's coming up at 2:20pm. you can get involved by sending your questions to ‘yourquestions@bbc.co.uk‘ or tweeting us using the hashtag bbc your questions. we have just heard that the whole of the county of nottinghamshire will move into tier 3 from friday. there has been some discussion about well be happening to limited areas of the cou nty were be happening to limited areas of the county were due to move into tier 3 at midnight tomorrow. it was supposed to be... the government had said it was looking at extending the measures and so we have now heard that the whole of nottinghamshire now will be going into tier 3 from

friday. the background to this, nottingham did have the highest figures of covid in the uk earlier this month that the seven day rate of infection has been dropping according to latest figures. in the week to the 24th of october, the city had the 26th highest rate of infection per 100,000. there has been some frustration and disagreement amongst local leaders about the move is being taken and the delays on the information coming through. with the local council leader in nottingham saying nottingham people and businesses deserve clarity in difficult times. this is not good enough for our city. there is no clarity because the whole of nottinghamshire will be going into tier 3 from friday. we will keep you updated with more reaction from that. there's been a second night

of unrest in the us city of philadelphia after the fatal police shooting of a black man. police say officers opened fire on 27—year—old walter wallace when he ignored orders to drop a knife he was holding. demonstrators say he was having a mental health problems. philadelphia is the biggest city in pennsylvania. which is a key swing state in next week's presidential election. with me now is our north america correspondent larry madowo. what has been the latest? there has been protest and looting and clashes with some police where people are mad. this is another black man that they have to commemorate his death andi they have to commemorate his death and i saw some of those protesters in west philadelphia. they have a sense of obligation that they need to be there but in the city specifically, people are losing stea m specifically, people are losing steam but this keeps happening again according to the people i have been speaking to. we have an not date on

the latest on that. philadelphia — burning... bleeding... and looting. with the white house's blessing, state authorities are welcoming in the national guard, after hundreds of protesters faced down riot police for a second night, injuring dozens of officers. with tensions high after another controversial police shooting. it is tiring, how much we have seen it. sincejune we have been saying we will tear the system down if we don't get change but it has been months and months and it's still happening. on monday afternoon, in the neighbourhood of cobbs creek in west philadelphia, this happened. two officers respond to a report of a man with a weapon. he breaks free from his mother after she says she tried to shield him. police say they then tell the 27—year—old to drop his weapon.

then this... shooting. he was pronounced dead at hospital. his father asked later why police did not first use a taser. philadelphia's mayor called it a tragic incident, pledging a full investigation. this is not only a matter that is being carefully considered by the head of our special investigations unit and the assigned prosecutor, it's a matter that i am looking at personally and carefully. this office has made clear that we believe in fairness, we believe in evenhanded justice. we are not out to cover for anybody and we are not out to get anybody. in a statement released on tuesday, joe biden and kamala harris said... at the same time, they added addressing the looting...

as walter wallace junior‘s family mourn the tragic early end of a father, twin and son, they have come forward to call for a stop to the chaos and violence, pleading with philadelphians to show them and the city some kind of respect. mark lobel, bbc news. this will play into president from's law and order message. this plays right into that when you see last night a lot... 0ne walmart was looting. groceries from the store, and clashes with police. for president champ who has to win the state, it is more important for him to win. for the biden harris

campaign, how to condemn the violence yet make sure that they are acknowledging that a black man was killed. the family have said he was having mental health problems. it is another complication and it is an important state. thank you larry. a search operation is expected to continue in the english channel this morning, after a migrant boat sank off the coast of dunkirk yesterday. two children aged five and eight were killed, along with two adults. more than a dozen others were taken to hospital, but french authorities believe more could still be missing. 0ur reporter, simonjones has been in dover and brought us up to date on the latest developments. there are some pretty grim conditions in the channel this morning, the wind whipping up and it was very much like that yesterday morning when this boat

carrying around 20 people set out from northern france. it did not get very far on its journey before it began sinking. that prompted a huge response from the emergency services. they managed to transport 15 people to hospital but sadly four people lost their lives. the big fear has been that other people might be unaccounted for. the search continued throughout yesterday, it was stood down at around 5pm when light faded. we are hearing from french authorities that they are ready to react to any further information regarding missing people but i think the reality now is that we are now more than 24 hours on since the boat capsized, so if there are more people missing, we are likely to be talking about a recovery rather than a rescue operation. politicians on this side of the channel such as the prime minister and home secretary priti patel have been talking about this terrible event, in their words, saying they will work closer than ever with the french authorities to try to tackle the people smugglers they believe

are organising these crossings. and today the clandestine channel threat commander, dan 0'mahoney, who has been given the task by the government of trying to make this route unviable, is heading to france to talk to counterparts. much to discuss but charities are saying this was a tragedy waiting to happen and they say that action is needed now to stop more lives being lost in the weeks and months to come. the police watchdog has criticised the way in which officers in london carry out stop and search — saying it has affected confidence in the force among black communities. following a review, the independent 0ffice for police conduct has made eleven recommendations and says scotland yard must take steps to ensure officers don't make decisions based on stereotypes or racial bias. sal naseem, is london regional director for the independent 0ffice for police conduct — and joins me now from birmingham.

welcome. thank you forjoining us. tell us about some of the examples that you have found that were based on racial assumptions? thank you for the introduction. we have conducted a review around stop and search because we felt it was really important to recognise the issues that communities were telling as i around and that was around this proportionality and stop and search. we looked at five independent investigations to see what themes and trends they were telling as around stop and search and what a review revealed to us is that we found a legitimacy of stop and search says it were being undermined in key areas. we made 11 learning recommendations to the metropolitan police service. key headlines with the lack of understanding about the impact of disproportionality and particularly their black committee

within london. poor communication from the outset of the encounter and it affected how the encounter took place. thirdly, consistent use of force. 0ver seeking cooperation. this involved the use of handcuffs. fourthly, failure to use body worn video from the outside of the contact and finally continuing to seek further evidence after the initial stop and search were found to be unfounded. essentially fishing for further grounds. when you talk about the lack of understanding of impact of of stop and search, how does that get remedied?” impact of of stop and search, how does that get remedied? i think the first... i think the key question here is really around, you know, police officers understanding around the impact stop and search has on

black, asian and ethnic minority communities in london. wejust need to look at the home office figures that came out yesterday to see that black people are nine times more likely to be stop and searched than you know a memberfrom the likely to be stop and searched than you know a member from the white community. if you bring that back to london, if you are a black person you are four times more likely to be stopped and searched. similarly for asian people. black... members of the black community are overrepresented in this police tactic. would you like that proportion then to be changed and if so how do you achieve that?” proportion then to be changed and if so how do you achieve that? i think the first thing... i was coming to the first thing... i was coming to the point. the point was that officers understanding the impact stop and search has on black, asian and ethnic minorities across london. the metropolitan police service has accepted all of our learning recommendations here. in orderfor

officers to understand the impact, this comes back to issues around training, awareness of the impact and obviously then in terms of their decision—making, to undertake stopping search —— stop and search. again, these are issues which have we have highlighted to the metropolitan police. thank you very much. we are hearing the in plymouth is in the cusp of moving into the tier 2 level of covid restrictions, as the rate of covid—19 cases is increasing and has exceeded 130 cases per 100,000, the council says g that continues it can expect to tern tier 2ina continues it can expect to tern tier 2 in a matter of day, it is hoping issuing an alert to residents asking

them to comply with current restrictions will help to prevent the city hitting tier 2. just this hour we have heard also, that the whole of nottinghamshire is now going to be going into tier 3 from friday. sport and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre, here's 0lly. good morning. liverpool are running out of central defensive options after another injury last night. fabinho limped off in the first half of their champions league match at anfield. it looked to be a hamstring problem. they are already without virgil van dijk, probably for the rest of the season. jurgen klopp says he might have to turn to very young and inexperienced alternatives. at least they won last night, both goals against the danish champions fc midtjlland came in the second half, that from diogojota and mo salah added an injury time penalty. it is like in a marriage, it is in good and in lesser good times you

have to stick together, and that is a moment, that is a tricky one, so, a moment, that is a tricky one, so, a lot of games player after player says goodbye for a while and then we still have to play the next game, and in ourcase still have to play the next game, and in our case we have to win it and in our case we have to win it and we try with all we have, and i am really happy with that. manchester city have no front—line strikers at the moment, but still ran out 3—0 winners at marseille. torres, gundogan and raheem sterling with their goals to make it two wins out of two in their group. northern ireland's women can still qualify for the european championship next year. despite having their keeper sent off, they won 1—0 in belarus and they can still catch wales in theirgroup. the welsh lost 1—0 to norway in cardiff. they're still second in their group, but have only one game left to play to secure a play—off spot. scotland have slipped to third in their qualifying group. they lost 1—0 to finland in helsinki. long way to go in that group though, with four games still to play for the scots

another super league match has been postponed after a covid outbreak at one of the clubs. castleford tigers say they have 12 positive cases and their match at huddersfield is off on friday. but leeds rhinos could be affected — they played the tigers on monday night. the positive cases have come to light after a round of tests yesterday. catalan dragons match against warrington had already been called off this week. england's netballers have made a losing start to their three test series against new zealand in hamilton. it was the the roses first competitive match since march, and they were well beaten 58—45. they've been through a lot to just make the series happen, having to quarantine for two weeks in new zealand and take five five covid—19 tests before being allowed to play. their head coachjess thirlby, never got that far, having to stay behind in the uk following a positive test. the second test is on friday. saudi arabia is set to make its debut on the formula one calendar next year.

a draft list given to f1 teams shows that the penultimate event of a 22 race season will be injeddah on a street circuit. a purpose built track is also being built in qiddiyah in saudia arabiafor 2023. the lawn tennis association says a third of indoor tennis centres could close permanently, without further government funding. they fear the £100 million recently invested in leisure facilities will be spread too thinly to make a difference and they've questioned the logic of the latest restrictions. at the moment you can have a group exercise class for up to 30 people in one of these indoor tennis centres but two people from different hassles cannot take part in a single tennis activity and that seems ridiculous, given the current climate these facilities are operating in.

that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. more in the next hour. with thejob retention scheme coming to an end, a rise in unemployment by the end of this year is widely expected to happen — the bank of england's and the 0br'5 latest forecasts have the unemployment rate rising to 7.5% and 11.9% by the end of 2020, respectively. a report from the resolution foundation finds that one—in—five young people, and over one—in—five ethnic minority workers who were furloughed during lockdown have since their lostjobs — and just one—in—three young people who have lost theirjobs have been able to find new work. our business presenter, sima kotecha, has more details.

yes, this provides grim reading this morning, if you are a young person or if you a person of colour, because it basically concludes you are more likely to have lost your job post lockdown. why? well it says that many people, many bame people and people between the ages of 18—24 are likely to have worked in sectors that have been hit the hardest by the covid pandemic, things like hospitality, and retail. the resolution foundation is an independent think—tank and howdy it ascertain the details? it spoke to 6,000 people, and it concluded that one in five young people are without work and more than one in five bame people are unemployed. to talk to me about the results are and what perhaps could be done to improve this situation is a senior analyst

from the resolution foundation, kathleen hannah than. how accurate do you think this is, do these results project an accurate picture? we think, so i mean, you know, it does tell a worrying friend, while the first stage of the crisis was marked by a big shock and wide scale furloughing ofjob, marked by a big shock and wide scale furloughing of job, we marked by a big shock and wide scale furloughing ofjob, we worries this will tend to see unemployment rising further crucially one of things we found the rise in unemployment we have seen so far isn't because there has been one fell swoop ofjob losses and that is largely affecting things like thejob losses and that is largely affecting things like the job retention scheme but it is because those people already out of work and who are currently losing theirjobs are really struggling to move into a new job, and that struggle is proving even more challenging than it was in the early stages of the financial crisis. well, is that because these jobs simply doesn't exist at the moment?

imean, simply doesn't exist at the moment? i mean, that is one of the really big worries that we found. mine, obviously it seems natural it will be hard to find a job in leisure, hospitality and even non—food retail right now, one of the things that we asked survey respondents was, if you are looking for a job, what sectors are looking for a job, what sectors are you currently looking in? and you know, perhaps surprisingly we found that workers from those hard hit sectors are looking forjobs there, so for instance among those who currently work or previously worked in leisure and hospitality and non—food retail, the top four job search destinations were leisure, hospitality, administrative work, and non—food retail you can see there is a bit of a mismatch and obviously it will be tough to find jobs in those sectors right now. and and what do you think can happen next, mine what do you think should happen next? because the government has made very clear it simply cannot save everyone, it doesn't have a

money tree. yes, so, so obviously, you know, we really do work recent changes to the job support scheme we think may mean moment ho employers hold on to staff. we think that should go some way to staving off the big up take in unemployment we otherwise would have seen but as you say with the best will in the world these policies won't solve everyjob loss, so to that end we think government are really right to push ahead with some job support schemes they announced over summer, so things like the kick—start scheme that will help young people find job, again private sectorjob creation will be tough. we think government should be looking into job creation initiatives to socially desirable sectors could be a good way to look at it in the medium term, there is a huge amount of vacancies in the social care sector, so it is perhaps time to think of

making that role more attractive. finally, you know, people are going to roll off into unemployment soon and that will have a big lit on living standards, we think it is important to protect that. and briefly, because we haven't got much time, how can people keep their moral up, the furlough scheme is coming to an end on saturday so this government support will no longer be there what would you say to a young or bame person who is struggling at the moment, because livelihoods are at stake here, aren't they. yes, they are, and it is a really tough scenario, talk to as many people as you, friends, colleagues, jobcentres for there are some vacancies in the social care sector, so just, for there are some vacancies in the social care sector, sojust, keep your eye out and do the best you can, but everyone needs to recognise

this is a very tough time. thank you kathleen hanahan from the resolution town location, telling us these demographics are incredibly struggling at the moment and as the furlough scheme comes to an end on saturday and that government support is taken away, their situations will become even more challenging in the months i had. thank you. women who underwent controversial bowel surgery in bristol using mesh, have been told they won't able to access specialist help. an independent review held earlier this year, said all those affected by mesh surgery should have the cost of any extra care and support met by the nhs. however they've now discovered that only those who were treated with vaginal mesh will be seen. matthew hill reports. these women are all living with a long—term consequences of mesh surgery. the operations were to to fix a prolapsed or sagging bowel but

for some it made everything worse. mesh can erode and become infected. i can't sit very well. i can't sit for long at all. i have to lie down or stand up. get up in the morning, horrendous pain, but once i'm walking about, it does ease. but sitting down is awful. there is nowhere that is comfortable and i'm ona nowhere that is comfortable and i'm on a lot of medication. it affects your friendships, your relationships, yourjob. three of these women were seen by the bristol surgeon tony dixon who helped pioneer the procedure, later dismissed by the nhs he remains under investigation by thejohn redwood. mr dixon has maintained the operations were done in good faith and any surgery could have complications. —— general medical council. two years ago under pressure, the government ordered a review, in her report, early this

year, lady comber liege recommended they meet the cost of any erextra ca re they meet the cost of any erextra care that is needed. the report was really clear there should be a network of specialist centres to sort outcome play cases with the mesh, but now, it seems nhs england have rode back on that. paula from bristol has set up a support group. ata bristol has set up a support group. at a meeting last months with north of england she was devastated to hear the specialised centres would only cover vaginal mesh, not bowel operations like hers. —— nhs england. they state it does not fall under women's and children's specialist services. however, the new mesh centre also have a co nsulta nt new mesh centre also have a consultant within their for the vaginal mesh, so is that not the same? in a statement, the nhs has

said: but these women urgently need help now, they say they can't afford to wait. i don't know where my future is going, if i could ever be a mother, the options seem to be a stoma or carry on suffering the way you are. i feel completely lost. joining us is clave griffiths who ones a support group online. i know you are in a wheelchair because of the impact of the mesh on you, just explain what the impact has been?m i had my surgery in 2012. my health deteriorated for five years. i suffer with pain every day, there is days i can't get out of bed. i can't walk without assistance. the pain is excruciating in my groin, in my spine. it feels like someone's

pouring hot oil down my legs because of the never damage that is caused. my of the never damage that is caused. my —— nerve, my husband has to get me out of bed to take medication, to ta ke me out of bed to take medication, to take the edge off the painful i can't stand, sit, do anything for any length of time my bladder doesn't work properly. i have a permanent stoma. and most of all, the amount of suffering i have ptsd, health anxiety, you know, somebody‘s taken my life away from me. it is just horrendous, absolutely horrendous. iamso horrendous. i am so sorry to hear you describe what you are, you are enduring. 0bviously, what you are, you are enduring. obviously, it has been going on for yea rs obviously, it has been going on for years for you. what, i mean initially did you know what was the cause of the issues? no. it took me a good year when it started to get really bad to understand what was going on. it was only because i

watched the victoria derbyshire show, that signposted me to it and then i realised the true extent of how many women are suffering daily with this. it must be horrible living with something and not knowing what is cause it but when you find out what is, there is hope it can get fixed, what did you find when you tried to get it resolved? it is very hard, because there is not many clinicians round the country that you know understand mesh, andest complication, so, it was constantly telling the different people, the same story, over and over again, the fact that people don't believe you, they think you are exaggerating the symptoms and think that is the hardest thing because it makes you feel like you are going mad, because is is it really happening? because nobody understands what you are going through, then you starts to think you are making it up in your head, which clearly we are not. which has been proved there are major issues surrounding mesh, and especially this mesh, it is life altering.

there has been a huge change in the understanding of mesh, and you mentioned obviously the work on the victoria derbyshire programme, the raising awareness around it and the change in approach, but people like you with the mesh that you have got are falling through the cracks right now, because you can't get the, the surgery, the help that those with vaginal mesh are getting. how does that make you feel? it doesn'tjust come down to the surgery or the removal of this mesh to be honest bangsit removal of this mesh to be honest bangs it is about having a standardised care plan like vaginal mesh, we need urologist, surgeon, gynaecologists, we feed physio and most of all we need mental health support. so finding out we won't be included in the mesh centres was a massive blow, hence we are campaigning so hard to try and get

inclusion. just explain why it has been so difficult to get it resolved. because i presume your surgery initially was an nhs surgery, if you have complications arising from it, why doesn't it automatically follow you can get that resolved? because these mesh centres they will set up arejust these mesh centres they will set up are just now these mesh centres they will set up arejust now going these mesh centres they will set up are just now going to be based for vaginal mesh patient, they state we don't come under the westminster‘s health umbrella. the issues we have, with prolapse is usually because of childbirth orfault with prolapse is usually because of childbirth or fault faults with our pelvic floor which is ultimately women's health issue, so they are being woolly about why which can't being woolly about why which can't be included. so currently we only have two option, two surgeons in london that are even attempting to remove it. apart from that, we have no other help. and do you believe that you could have a surgery that

would remove the mesh and everyone would remove the mesh and everyone would be fine, what is your understanding of what the possible outcomes are for you? we are never going to be back to normal. a loll lot of the damage that has been caused the permanent. the only thing that the mesh removal would do is stop any further damage, because where they attach the mesh it is attached to the bottom the of your spine using little tack, these tacks have come loose in a lot of people so with me they are embedded in my pelvic wall so things like that need to be resolved but we are never going to be the same people we were and we will always have ongoing issues. and you describe so clearly when we started talking, the pain that you are in daily, and you have just said now, you won't ever be the same person that you were before, you were only 30 when you had that surgery. yes. 38 now, 30 when i had the surgery. you know, people always

think about prolapse being for older women, but we have people in our support group that are as young as 30,32, support group that are as young as 30, 32, and one of the ladies you heard from, she hasn't had her children yet and doesn't know if she he will be able to because of the impact the surgery had on her. and for you, how do you feel about life going forward and how it has changed asa going forward and how it has changed as a result of this? scared. really scared. i was so ambitious, independent, social, and it feels like it rips your entire life away. and the hard thing is, no matter how much you tell people about it, they still don't quite understand or sometimes believe the full extent of what you are going through on a daily basis. claire, thank you for joining u we wish you really all the best with everything. thank you. we've all been valuing our green

spaces a little bit more this year, and as autumn gets under way you may have noticed a spectacular array of colours on our trees. it's particularly vivid this year thanks to the sunny weather of the spring and the rain in september. 0ne beautiful display is in stourhead in wiltshire, so we sentjohn maguire to take in the views. at this time of the year the lake at stourhead offers one of the finest views in the whole of the national trust. but we're in search of a different perspective. one from above. so the best way to appreciate the autumn leaves is to get right in amongst them, 100 feet high, up this tulip tree. i've never climbed a tree this way before. the foot extenders go a little bit longer. there is a little buckle on it. well, it's a lot harder than i thought it was going to be. i'm absolutely exhausted. but as with a lot of things in life, the hard work is met with a great reward. the view above the tree tops here is just absolutely stunning. look at that.

joe ashman is a tree surgeon and looks after the estate's most precious resource. joe, so this is your office, this is where you hang out? it is, yeah. i look after the trees, basically. managing trees and managing the form and the structure of the trees, you can prolong its life considerably really. so as they grow older, they do kind of get too big for themselves. they can start falling apart as they get older. so we can reduce weight here and there. the trust had predicted a spectacular autumn for leaf colour and the trees haven't disappointed. the weather this year, so problematic for so many, has proved golden for leaves. very often it's quite difficult to predict autumn colour, but it tends to be the years when the trees are happy. i mean, it's a strange word to use for trees, but when they have had a lot of sunshine during the summer, there is plenty of water in the soil, so they're not stressed. you get that complex chemistry

going on in the leaves, creating all these lovely pigments that we've got around us now. the tree is shutting down for the winter. and part of that process is a controlled loss of leaves, and it needs to withdraw some of the valuable chemicals and sugars back into the tree before it loses them. covid has meant a cap on numbers here at stourhead, and at properties and gardens across the trust's estates. it'll mean a fall in revenue of around £200 million. and there is another disease causing major problems. ash dieback is ravaging ash trees throughout the uk. we are climbing again, this time using the 205 steps inside king alfred's tower to give us a bird's eye view of the forest. oh, you can see forever! you can. if we look outside of the tower you can see the effect it is having to the surrounding landscape. i don't think it's going to be particularly devastating to the garden. but where it will make a big difference is on our tenant farms. for the last 30 or 40 years,

it's been used as hedgerow planting, because it doesn't shade out the crops, so it's been very useful for that. it's going to be as bad as dutch elm, i think. that's what the prediction is going to be. green spaces have been vital in helping so many people to cope with the pandemic. and as some of the green turns golden, or red, there is still so much solace thanks to the beauty of nature. john maguire, bbc news, wiltshire. kim kardashian west has been accused of being "tone deaf" after spending her 40th birthday on a private island with a large group of family and friends. she posted a string of pictures on twitter, taken with friends and family, on a party held on a private island. she wrote that she asked all of her guests to quarantine and undergo multiple health screenings, before springing the surprise on them. ms kardashian west said she wanted to "pretend things were normaljust for a brief moment in time." none of the guests wore masks — although if you look carefully

you can see what appears to be a member of staff covering their mouth and nose. among the activities, were dancing, riding bikes, swimming near whales, watching a movie on the beach and kayaking. she said she was "humbly reminded of how privileged my life is." now it's time for a look at the weather with nick miller. hello. savour the sunshine, when you get to see it today. don't get soaked in the showers, some heavy and thundery ones. a chance of hail. most frequency in the south and west, although some will push further east in the strong gusty winds. i think north east england towards north east scotland seeing fewer showers compared to elsewhere. it's a cooler day, particularly into england and wales, winds gusting widely 30 to 40 mph, 50 nearer some southern and western coasts, rough and high seas in the west as well, particularly into western scotland, where showers merge to give a longer spell of rain into the first part of tonight.

clearer spells to the east overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into low single figures. look at the rain coming into northern ireland, wales, south—west england by the end of tonight. this will push north and east across the uk during thursday, some of it on the heavy side, just the northern isles stay dry. behind that, we dry up over parts of england and wales into the afternoon. we keep plenty of cloud, patchy rain and drizzle, but a milder day here.

this is bbc news, the headlines: the bbc believes the whole of nottinghamshire will enter tier 3 on friday. it comes as the government faces calls on more clarity for covid—19 restrictions before christmas. the environment secretary says the right measures are in place to give people a good festive season. i'm sure that we will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet. but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that they normally would. the head of the uk's vaccine trial says there's a possibility a vaccine could be rolled out before christmas.

this is unlikely to be a silver bullet that will put to rights everything immediately. but with the data generated so far we have room to be optimistic. with six days before the us elections, donald trump and joe biden continue on the campaign trail. welcome to bbc news. tier 3 restrictions for nottingham and other counties have been delayed by one day. it will, in a minute past midnight will now apply to the whole cou nty of midnight will now apply to the whole county of nottinghamshire. that is

more than1 county of nottinghamshire. that is more than 1 million county of nottinghamshire. that is more than1 million people. pressure is growing on the government for more clarity on restrictions on the lead up to christmas. 367 deaths linked to the virus were recorded as we re linked to the virus were recorded as were nearly 23,000 5. new analysis suggests 25,000 people will be in hospital with covid—19 by the end of next month. the head of the uk vaccines task force said there could bea vaccines task force said there could be a vaccine rolled out before christmas. we have heard the whole of

nottinghamshire will go into the new level of restrictions. that is certainly what we understand. there isa certainly what we understand. there is a huge amount of confusion here and not to come because to remind a little bit and take you back to monday. 0n little bit and take you back to monday. on monday we were told our nottinghamshire city centre and a few other areas would be entering that very high risk group from one minute past midnight tonight. that was because of the huge amount of cases, they were going up in most of the age groups although they were dropping slightly in the under 22s. there was a great deal of hospital admissions. we were told that yesterday we would get the detail of the financial package that would be available to compensate people with business support. however, none of that detail was actually released yesterday and it seems to be that in the meantime there were a number of other meetings going on behind closed doors about the other boroughs in nottingham county area.

the cases have been rising significantly they are and know what we understand is that these other boroughs will alsojoin we understand is that these other boroughs will also join nottingham city centre and the other three into adjoining tier 3. that will not happen until one minute past midnight on friday morning. the leader of nottingham county council missing to me yesterday that they wa nted missing to me yesterday that they wanted to have today and tomorrow to get people prepared. but they haven't been able to get them prepared so that information hasn't been made public about what support they are going to get yet. i have been talking to people in the city centre here and they are very cross that they have not had that information and they are extremely confused at the moment.” information and they are extremely confused at the moment. i was going to ask you more broadly about the reaction. 0bviously to ask you more broadly about the reaction. obviously there were other areas that were not expecting to go into tier 3 that are now pulled into

this? mansfield, ashfield, the shaba district, they have been told on monday that they were not going to be into entering into tier 3. now it appears they will be entering. just within a space of 48 hours things shifting very, very quickly. and peoples lives being affected. people are being asked to give up freedoms, people are being asked to change their businesses and jobs and yet there is no clarity. there certainly hasn't been proper confirmation but this is what we understand is happening. thank you very much. in september — the chief scientific advisor to the government sir patrick vallance predicted

the uk could face 50,000 cases a day by october without action. he used this graph to illustrate his point — and warned that — that volume of cases would lead to "200 plus deaths per day" in november. yesterday, the uk recorded another 367 deaths — which takes the seven—day average of deaths in the uk to 200. they are dabbling. what happened was locked down reduced that. the average number of people in infect that person is the virus onto, fell from three to one. what has happening now because the government is trying to keep society open, keeping skills and business running, that number is around 1.5. what has been predicted by these advisers is a lower peak but a longer peak. 0ne suggestion that has been put forward is that we could see deaths peak at 500 and they could stay at that level for weeks, even months. at the moment we are seeing around 200 deaths a day, it was higher yesterday after delays reporting at

the weekend. the peak back in spring was 1000 but that did not last long. the warning as they speak in this winter could be much longer. as things stand, the predictions are

the second wave being more deadly than the first, albeit lower numbers but over a more sustained period than we had before, is that how you seeit? than we had before, is that how you see it? yes. the reason for that is what we saw in march was really very drastic. you remember the lockdown, that was very drastic restrictions which brought down the number of cases, the number of transmission is very, very sharply down. right now we have some measures in place which are keeping the rate of transmission low but because they have not come right down, if we are to get over this, it will be very slowly. a lot of people will be infected in the meantime before we reach the level where cases will go down. what do you believe is the right way for the policymakers to be handling this? sam in sage have been concerned that they have been reportedly, they have

been sidelined in favour of economic considerations. there is talk about, and there has been for some time, whether you shield the older and vulnerable now and let the rest of society get back to normal. there is what you are talking about the full lockdown which would bring it all down, but is there a price worth paying? what is your view?” down, but is there a price worth paying? what is your view? i think thatis paying? what is your view? i think that is a value judgment. politicians and decision—makers need to balance things like health and the economy. but what i would say is that... and our current circumstances we are going to have many more cases and deaths so that is something we need to consider, if we do want to avert this we may need stronger measures. 0n the economic side, we also need to take into consideration it is not a direct trade. if the number of cases continue to increase this will have an impact on the economy whether or

not there are tighter restrictions. 0ur political correspondent jess parker said the pressure on the government is increasing. people, usually at this time of year, want to make their plans for the festive season, work out which family they might spend time with over christmas. what ministers are saying at the moment is really it's too early to say exactly what's going to happen in two months' time because covid changes things so quickly. but there has been a call today from the liberal democrats and the alliance party of northern ireland for a kind of four nation summit, so that all foreign leaders of scotland, wales, northern ireland and england, can kind of agree are consistent way forward, because people will be travelling across the uk, giving his reaction to that today, the environment secretary george eustice. i'm sure that we will be able to have a good christmas and that families will be able to meet, but they may not be able to get together in the sort of larger groups that the normally would. so, interestingly there, george eustice saying that people may not be able to meet

in the larger groups that they normally would. a clear suggestion from a cabinet minister that restrictions, the like of which we see at the moment for example, the rule of six, could still be in place in the festive season. the head of the uk vaccines task force, says there's a possibility that there could be a vaccine roll—out in the uk before christmas, but that but an early 2021 launch is more likely. kate bingham says she is optimistic that the vaccine will be approved for use soon and that the uk is well positioned. speaking to my colleague geeta guru murthy — she said that the first covid—vaccines could be similar to the current flu vaccine in its nature giving a short initial boost but it would need to be given regularly. i think what we will end up with is something where we can manage this disease,

we need to stop it from being a lethal disease that is causing a global shutdown, to something that is manageable where we can both prevent infection as well as reduce the severity of symptoms if infection actually takes place. what i can say is the front running vaccines will have completed or have completed their clinical trial enrolment. by november, we should have at least the front running vaccines which includes oxford and also the pfizer—biontech vaccine, where they will have completed enrolment but the two parts we don't know is whether or not have been sufficient infections in those clinical trials to be able to statistically show that people who have received a vaccine are protected against those who have not and of course the holy grail question is do the vaccines work. but i have to say that i am optimistic. i think it's important we do manage expectations, that this is not likely to be a one and done, a silver bullet that will put everything back to rights immediately. but i do think, based on the data generated so far, we have room to be optimistic,

and we must not rush it. we need to ensure that everything is done safely and properly and we are in a good position, the uk is well positioned. i think it's important we do manage expectations, that this is not likely to be a one and done, a silver bullet that will put everything back to rights immediately. but i do think, based on the data generated so far, we have room to be optimistic, and we must not rush it. we need to ensure that everything is done safely and properly and we are in a good position, the uk is well positioned.

realistically, when can people expect to be offered vaccinations in the uk? if the first two vaccines, either of them, show they are both safe and effective, i think there is a possibility that vaccine roll—out will start this side of christmas but otherwise i think it's more realistic to expect it to be early next year. and who would be given them first as a priority? that is a matter for the department of health who works with an expert committee called thejcvi, thejoint committee on vaccinations and immunisations, and they advise the government on priorities and who should get it first and they have put on their website the initial advice or prioritisation, obviously in the absence of the final clinical data so it might change, but they have prioritised the care home residents and workers, front line health care workers, and the over 805. then their priorities go down roughly in age order including those adults with severe underlying diseases. coming up at 2:20 we'll answer your questions on development, trials, delivery and impact of a covid—19 vaccine. that's coming up at 2:20. you can get involved by sending your questions to ‘yourquestions@bbc.co. uk' or tweeting us using the hash tag bbc your questions. charities have renewed calls for the government to allow asylum seekers to apply for refuge in the uk from outside its borders, after four people died when a migrant boat sank off the coast of france.

two children aged five and eight were killed, along with two adults. more than a dozen others were taken to hospital, but french authorities believe more could still be missing. searches have not yet resumed this morning. 0ur reporter, simonjones has been in dover and brought us up to date on the latest developments. there are some pretty grim conditions in the channel this morning, the wind whipping up and it was very much like that yesterday morning when this boat carrying around 20 people set out from northern france. it did not get very far on its journey before it began sinking. they managed to transport 15 people to hospital but sadly four people lost their lives. the big fear has been that other people might be unaccounted for. the search continued throughout yesterday, it was stood down at around 5pm when light faded. we are hearing from french authorities that they are ready to react to any further information regarding missing people but i think the reality now is that we are now more than 24 hours on since the boat capsized, so if there are more people missing, we are likely to be talking about a recovery rather than a rescue operation. politicians on this side of the channel such as the prime minister and home secretary priti patel have been talking about this terrible event, in their words, saying they will work closer than ever with the french authorities to try to tackle

the people smugglers they believe are organising these crossings. and today the clandestine channel threat commander, dan 0'mahoney, who has been given the task by the government of trying to make this route unviable, is heading to france to talk to counterparts. much to discuss but charities are saying this was a tragedy waiting to happen and they say that action is needed now to stop more lives being lost in the weeks and months to come. ican i can confirm that there has been an increase from 17 yesterday. 85 people are in intensive care, three more than yesterday. i regret to say a further 28 deaths were registered with patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days and that takes the total number of

deaths to 2754. national records of scotla nd deaths to 2754. national records of scotland has also published its weekly up date which you know includes cases where covid is a suspected or contributory cause of death. today's date shows that the total number of deaths linked to covid was 4482. 106 of these deaths we re covid was 4482. 106 of these deaths were registered last week, that is 31 more than in the week before. of last week's deaths, 82 occurred in hospitals, 18 in care homes and six we re hospitals, 18 in care homes and six were at home or in another non—institutional setting. we can never obviously see these deaths simply as statistics and i think it is important for me and for all of us to remember that every single one represents the loss of a unique and

irreplaceable human being. 0nce again, iwant irreplaceable human being. 0nce again, i want to send my deepest condolences to everyone who has been read during the course of the pandemic and especially at this moment those who have lost a loved one in more recent times. i have a couple of specific points i want to date on today, they relate to care homes and to the protect scotland app. before i do that let me acknowledge that the scottish government's new approach to tackling covid was considered yesterday by the scottish parliament and parliament last night voted unanimously for the motion submitted by the scottish government. tomorrow we will formally confirm which areas of scotla nd we will formally confirm which areas of scotland will be in which level of scotland will be in which level of the framework from the 2nd of november and work to finalise these decisions will take place over the course of today and this evening, where i will receive advice from the government's clinical advisers and

the cabinet will reach a conclusion. i will take account of ongoing consultation with local authorities. we publish tomorrow more detailed ta bles we publish tomorrow more detailed tables on the different levels mean for children and people who are shielding over the spring and summer. before then let me take the opportunity to say thank you to the other political parties for their constructive suggestions they have made about the framework and all organisations who have spoken to the scottish government in recent days. we will work closely with partners as the framework is implemented and we will improve and refine it wherever we can and is acknowledging and understanding experienced of the virus continues to evolve. it is also an opportune moment to just say and to recognise again that the position we are in right now is really taff. and everyone is starry sick of it. that has been the case

for some time but as the nights get darker as we head to enter and as our attention turns to christmas, that becomes a heavy one for us. u nfortu nately however that becomes a heavy one for us. unfortunately however much we might like to, we cannot magic covid away. there is simply no alternative to all of us to work together to stop overwhelming as, to stop it overwhelming as, to stop it overwhelm thing our national health service and stop it taking lives if we can. the other thing it is worth remembering, not because it makes us feel that much better, but to give us all perspective is we are not alone in this. scotland is not uniquely living through covid. many of our european neighbours right now are struggling with situations even more severe and in some cases even significantly more severe than the one we are facing. this does not make what we are going through any easier but it is a reminder that this is a global pandemic. itjust

happens that our generation is u nfortu nately happens that our generation is unfortunately the one having to live through it. we will get through it, thatis through it. we will get through it, that is the one thing we can be reasonably certain of. but the journey through it and will continue to be difficult for people. it is important for me to acknowledge that and acknowledged the sacrifices people are making and take the opportunity to thank you all for that. let me turn now to my two specific updates. the first relates toa specific updates. the first relates to a report commissioned by the scottish government which has been released by public health scotland. the report looks in some detail at discharges from hospitals into care homes during the early months of the pandemic. and the extent to which people work tested before discharge into ca re people work tested before discharge into care homes and examines whether these discharges were associated with outbreaks of covid in care homes. the report's authors together with the chief nursing 0fficer are holding everything forjournalists later this afternoon. i will not go

into all of the details of the report this morning but i think it is worth highlighting that because the report uses some fairly detailed statistical modelling it is not a lwa ys statistical modelling it is not always a straightforward read. the other point i want to make before it sing a little bit about the conclusion of the report is that nothing in it detracts from the tragedy of the deaths that have occurred in care homes over the course of the pandemic and nothing ever will detract from the heartbreak of those bereaved. and it doesn't take away either from the duty of government which is one we rightly feel acutely, to learn and apply lessons. all of that said though, the report has some clear findings and recommendations, and you can access it yourself on the public health website. it concludes that once we allow for other factors such as the size of a care home, hospital discharges were not found

to have contributed to a significantly higher risk of an outbreak. it is probably worth me quoting direct from the report rather than seeking to paraphrase it. the report says, " the analysis does not find statistical evidence that hospital discharges of any kind we re that hospital discharges of any kind were associated with care home outbreaks. " what they mean by any kind is discharges when a person tested negative before discharge to a care home or tested positive were not tested at all. it is important for me to point out that the level of certainty about that conclusion differs in each of these three scenarios. but the overall conclusion is as i have stated that there is no to statistical evidence that hospital discharges of any kind we re that hospital discharges of any kind were associated with care home outbreaks. i understand this is similarto outbreaks. i understand this is similar to the findings observed by

public health wales. as i said at a moment ago, this report is important and important for accountability and learning. but it is of no comfort and it never would be of any comfort to those who lost a loved one. so we will be public —— like supporting public health scotland to take further work and analysis so we have a detailed understanding of the outbreaks that take place in care homes and of course we will continue our work of the last few months to further improve safety measures in ca re further improve safety measures in care homes. as you know we now do wreak —— routine weekly testing of ca re wreak —— routine weekly testing of care home staff and we intend to extend that testing to designated visitors and a wider range of professionals who enter care homes regularly. we are also considering the findings of the report so we can better mitigate against the potentially effective care home size in seeking to prevent covid infections and the health secretary will set out more on that in a statement to parliament next week on

social care planning for the winter period. and where the conclusions highlight the need for further measures, we will take that on board. we take that seriously and lastly on this subject, i think it is appropriate for me to convene my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one to the spinous and in particular to those who have lost loved ones who were resident in care homes. the second point i want to cover is related because it is to do with covid but it is a different issue and that is to highlight a further improvement to the protect scotla nd further improvement to the protect scotland app. since it was launched, it has been downloaded by more than 1.5 million people across scotland andi 1.5 million people across scotland and i can tell you it has already notified more than 10,000 contacts, so positive cases with advice to them to self—isolate. that is important because in some cases of

course these people would not otherwise have been notified because they would have been people that the positive case might not have known that they were in close contact with. in most cases the notification would have been quicker than in manual contact tracing because it was done automatically through the app. the improvement that has now been made to the app is about interoperability. it means that as of now the app works in both northern ireland and jersey. if you had to travel to either of those locations on essential business, you can continue to use the app. you do not need to shift to the app in these places and you will be notified if you are in close contact with someone with covid. that is a mutual thing so the northern ireland that market as a result there. this is the result of extensive work that nhs scotland has done to develop a server that allows different apps to work together. it will also be able

to handle information from other apps in due course, for example the english and welsh app is due to updated in the next few days. we have reached an agreement that will be able to join the nhs scotland server once that his updated. it should be able to function in england and wales from early next month and vice versa and we also expect that it will be able to function in gibraltar if anybody is travelling there. discussions are under way about ensuring the app can operate in other countries across europe. this demonstrates that we continue improving the app to enhance its capabilities. ultimately it's enhance its capabilities. ultimately its usefulness is down to all of us. there are two things i want to continue to urge people to do. if you have not already done so and you are able to, please download the app is more than1.5 are able to, please download the app is more than 1.5 million of us know, it takes less than two minutes to do

it. as the numbers i have reported demonstrate, it does make a difference. 0nce demonstrate, it does make a difference. once you have downloaded the app, if you test positive for covid, please make sure you enter the code you will be given when you test positive. that sounds basic at the evidence we have so far suggests not everyone remembers to do that part. entering the code is essential in orderfor people part. entering the code is essential in order for people that you have beenin in order for people that you have been in close contact with to be notified that you have covid. if everybody not only download the app but remembers to enter the code, then the app will make a bigger difference. those are the two specific issues i wanted to update you on today. let me close before we ta ke you on today. let me close before we take questions by reminding you of the current rules and guidance. if you live in lothian, lanarkshire, in greater glasgow and clyde, do not travel outside the area you live in u nless travel outside the area you live in unless you have a clear need to do so and do not travel to these areas from other parts of scotland unless

it is necessary. none of us anywhere in the country should be visiting each other in our homes. when we do meet people from other households outdoors or in public indoor places like cafe is, the maximum group size should be six from a maximum of two households. in addition, please avoid car sharing unless it is essential. i have had people contacting and asking me if it is important. according to our most recent figures, more than 1000 people who tested positive for covid in the previous week reported sharing a car. that does not mean that that is where they got the virus. we have gone through this before. it is possible that some of these people got the virus from some day they were sharing a car well. work from home if you can and as i have already covered, download the

app if you have not already done so. finally, remember the five rules that will keep as also. we are face coverings, avoid places with crowds of people, clean hands and keep a two metre distance from people from another household and get tested if you have symptoms. it is by following these rules that we can protect ourselves and protect those we love but it is also by following these rules that we can protect our nhs. iwant these rules that we can protect our nhs. i want to end by emphasising this point. it is a point we made frequently and regularly and people responded too magnificently at the outside of the pandemic. as we see hospital admissions rise again, it is vital yet again to make sure that we protect our nhs so that it can protect those who need treatment for covid but also those who need treatment for other illnesses and conditions as well. by following all these rules we can save lives and that right now is the most important

thing of all. my thanks again to everybody for all your efforts for doing all of that. it is deeply appreciated and if we all continue to pull together to do these things then hopefully we will continue to see the progress we need to make to get through this virus. thank you very much and i will now move to questions. thank you first minister. you said that there are talks going on with local authorities i understand that will include scottish borders council about the levels you will announce tomorrow. if you look at your own statistics, new cases per week for example, percentage of positive tests, the expected demand on the health board and you look at those for scottish borders council as published, they all suggest that for scottish borders council, a level one would be appropriate,

because of those figures, have they not got a case for being at that level, when at the moment the recommendation is for level two? local authority also have views they wa nt to local authority also have views they want to feed in and we listen to that, i think it's going to take all of usa that, i think it's going to take all of us a little bit of time to understand how this process works, and to understand that the role and it is an important role, that you know, the hard statistics play in reaching decisions, that also involve applying judgment to those statistic, and it is not an easy process , statistic, and it is not an easy process, it has taken me a while as a non—clinician, non—expert to get an understanding of that. i will try and explain some of that, just in a bit more detail. gregor will probably want to add. the first point to make, which is relevant to this moment in time, and i say this in parliament yesterday, as we first migrate on to this new system, we will apply a degree of caution at

the outset, just to make sure that as we move to a new system we are not taking risks that are greater than we should be, so there will be a bit more caution applied, at the moment, as get used to this new system and get used to making the judgments. but more substantively, the reason why it is important to look at the statistics that you set out, but it is important that we don't see that as leading automatically to a given outcome, is there are wider context eventual issues we have to taken to account. that is where the judgment that we have to apply to this comes in. for example, the statistics that you have quoted me, absolutely rightly and you have taken them from the scottish government paper, one of thejudgments we scottish government paper, one of the judgments we have to reach scottish government paper, one of thejudgments we have to reach is that a sustainable position or is that a sustainable position or is that something we are seeing one week next week we think may have gonein week next week we think may have gone in the wrong direction? so have

we seen a sustainability to the low levels that the numbers are suggesting? secondly, and this will be more relate vanity to other parts of the country than necessarily to the border, what are the interdependencies and interactions between different parts of country? so one area may have lower levels than neighbouring areas, so may well go to allow level, but we have got to ta ke go to allow level, but we have got to take into account that people even with advice not to do that, if people are travelling in and out of those areas for work for example, they may be taking the virus in and out er or if you have a situation which is at a lower level, if pubs are open do we have people coming in and risking the low level, and thirdly, the final point before i hand over to gregor, one of the indicators and you mentioned it is looking at actual and projected hospital capacity. that is also

where no local authority is absolutely self—contained, so deferent, because there are a number of local authorities within the same health board area, inverclyde for example, that has i think lower prevalence than other parts of greater glasgow and clyde. they rely on the overall, the same overall health network, so the same hospital beds and icu beds, so in some cases we might have to be more cautious, because allowing a level to go an area to go to a low level and risking and increase when the hospital capacity might be strained may not be the most sensible thing to do. so i am probably contributing to do. so i am probably contributing to everybody‘s initial confusion about how all this work, what i am trying to demonstrate is that the raw statistics are not unimportant, absolutely not unimportant. but we have to take account of wider context eventual issues in coming to balanced judgments, and that, that

is harder to explain than just the raw statistics which is why we will set out the reasoning for these decisions, we will develop that as we go through and hopefully, over the next few weeks people will develop a greater understanding of exactly how these decisions are arrived at. in all of that the views of local authorities are important because they know the local area, they have an understanding of travel patterns we might not always have so this is why the process of consultation is such a vital one. the range of data is available to us now, to help to guide us with decisions is greater than we have had before. iwant decisions is greater than we have had before. i want to at this point pay tribute to our colleagues from the analytics professions who continually serve this data to us. i think it is really important we don't get drawn into an over mechanistic process, when we take these decisions and that need for judgment that the first minister has described there, is incredibly important, so that we understand first of all all the nuances of data

but take into account the other aspects of local intelligence that feed into that decision making too. when we speak to public health community and the members of the national imt in relation to date that they are working with, one of the features that we get when in those discussions is the need to make sure that we have stable data and we are consolidating a safe position before we begin to make change, that is important because in strict public health term what is we have traditionally done, as we have been observing a response to an outbreak, we traditionally use incubation cycles to see how that response is beginning to stabilise overtime. response is beginning to stabilise over time. that has been anything up to two incubation cycles before we start to make decision, in this case in covid we have tended to use a period of stability before we begin to make any change, so that we can be sure ourselves that actually the figures we are seeing are first of

all reliable and stable and they reflect the real position in the community but also we don't start to get simply an oscillation of those cases where we could have a situation where local authorities oscillate between levels on too regular a basis, i oscillate between levels on too regulara basis, ithink oscillate between levels on too regular a basis, i think that would not be beneficial to anyone if that was the case, this is about eensuring we have a very stable consolidated picture and that it is same safe to be able to make those decisions to change the restrictions that are in place. none of us have interest in keeping scotla nd none of us have interest in keeping scotland with a liefrling of restriction than is necessary, all of us have an interest of keeping scotla nd of us have an interest of keeping scotland as safe as possible. if that occasionally means as we will do, erring on the side of caution, thatis do, erring on the side of caution, that is about saving lives and trying to stop people becoming sick, so these are all factors that will be taken so these are all factors that will be ta ken account so these are all factors that will be taken account of in the judgments we arrive at. laura alderman from

stv. first ministerl first we arrive at. laura alderman from stv. first minister i first minister i want to go back to that delayed report from on the discharges from nhs hospitals into care homes, that report found that thousands of discharges were not statistically significant, if a care home is large, or if they have certain characteristics, so is the scottish government washing their hands of this problem and blaming staff, and do you still main they you didn't know about this practise at all, until that newspaper investigation exposed it? laura, thankfully people watch and listen to what i said about this and nobody, i hope could have reached the conclusion that what i said equated to washing my hands of it. i find thatjust a, well, look, iwill let hands of it. i find thatjust a, well, look, i will let it go, that is not the case, i take this extremely seriously, how i feel about this, and i will talk a bit

emotively before i return to your very legitimate question, how i feel about it has, is nothing compared to people who have loved ones in care homes and particularly those who lost loved ones in care homes, but i have said this before, and i will say it again because it is true, for as long as i live, the, the, agonising over decisions we have taken in the pandemic, but particularly those which have affected in care homes will live with me hand is right and proper, because this is a significant responsibility, but the idea i washed my hands of any of this could not be further from the truth. we ta ke not be further from the truth. we take this very seriously, this is a report you described it as a delayed report, it is complex drink bringing together lots of data sets and public health scotland have done it in their way on their timescale and discussed the timing of wit the authority who were satisfied with what they were doing but it has been

done independently, the authors of this report, it is by public health scotla nd this report, it is by public health scotland and renowned academics so it is independent of government. and it is independent of government. and it reaches that conclusion. that there is no statistical evidence that discharges when you take account of the factors at play, no statistical evidence that discharged from hospitals to care homes increased the risk of outbreaks. that is the independent conclusion. that is the independent conclusion. that doesn't mean there weren't outbreaks and it is the outbreaks we ta ke outbreaks and it is the outbreaks we take seriously. people died in those outbreak, we have to continue to understand them better, continue to understand them better, continue to understand them better, continue to understand the factors that drive them. just because we have a finding that one particular factor didn't particularly drive them, it doesn't mean we don't have work to do to better understand what did. and to make sure we are taking all of the right protective action. we have already done some of that, in the

change approach to testing that is a wealth of work done around infection protection and control, in care homes, and we continue to do that, and asi homes, and we continue to do that, and as i said, the health secretary will particularly address next week in parliament one of the things the report does seem to find, which is the, the most significant factor in outbreaks was the size of care home. that is not blaming care homes, and it is not blaming staff. it is simply recognising that bigger care homes, there are perhaps more interactions, perhaps more of a risk of community transmission getting in, so we have to think about how we work with and support larger care homes, to better mitigate that, so this is about understanding what the driver are, it ex—colluding some is one part of that, or, if not excluding completely, let me be clear this does not say that hospital discharges in all circumstances, was no factor at all, it just says

circumstances, was no factor at all, itjust says it circumstances, was no factor at all, it just says it wasn't a significant statistically significant one but that doesn't drake from the need for us to learn what happens in care homes so we can make sure we make the changes that are designed to minute mine and mitigate that for the future. nicola sturgeon with her daily covid—19 briefing. while we were watching that we had breaking new, a police officer who strangled his long—term lover after she exposed his affair to his wife has been jailed. dorset she exposed his affair to his wife has beenjailed. dorset police officer timothy bremer killed her in a car park on 9th may. they had had a car park on 9th may. they had had a secret relationship for more than ten year, bremmer has beenjailed for ten and a half years, thejudge in sentencing, said he was sentencing on the basis that he had lost self control following the sending of the text message to his wife rather than on the basis there was no intention to kill or cause

really serious harm. 0n was no intention to kill or cause really serious harm. on 9th may. they had had a secret relationship for more than ten year, bremmer has been jailed for more than ten year, bremmer has beenjailed for ten for more than ten year, bremmer has been jailed for ten and a half yea rs, been jailed for ten and a half years, thejudge in sentencing, said he was sentencing on the basis that he was sentencing on the basis that he had lost self control following the sending of the text message to his wife rather than on the basis there was no intention to kill or cause really serious harm. thejudge said "i am sure that you did deliberately take claire parry by the neck, applying significant force with your forearm or the crook of your elbow for a period of time while she struggled, there by causing severe neck injuries." the evidence from the pathologist was that those injuries which she described as significant force to the neck for a period of minimum ten to 30 seconds, possibly longer. the judge said as a trained police officer it must have been obvious that she was not breathing, yet, he did nothing to help evidence from the pathologist was that those injuries which she described as significant force to the neck for a period of minimum ten to 30 seconds, possibly longer. the judge said as a trained police officer it must have been obvious that she was not breathing, yet, he did nothing to help her, thejudge sadded "you did not ask her how she was, that is because you knew how she was, you could not have thought as you said in your police interview she was

simply taking a breath, you must have known her body has gone limp after your assault on her." so he has been jailed for ten—and—a—half yea rs: has been jailed for ten—and—a—half years: now the head of the uk vaccines task force says there is a possibility there could be a vaccine roll out before christmas but that an early 2021 launch is more likely. kate bingham says she is optimistic that the vaccine will be approved for use soon and the uk is well positioned, she has been speaking to my colleague about the first covid vaccines o taken halle being similar to the current flu vaccine. being needed to be given regular will. they don't provide protection for more than you know, several months toa more than you know, several months to a year, so, i think what we will end up with is something where we can manage this disease, we need to stop it from being a lethal disease thatis stop it from being a lethal disease that is causing a global shut down, to something that is manageable, where we can both prevent infection as well as reduce the severity of

symptoms, if infection actually ta kes symptoms, if infection actually takes place. when do you think we will get the information that we need on whether vaccines are safe and whether they work?” need on whether vaccines are safe and whether they work? i wish i could give you a firm answer. what can can say is that the front running vaccines will have completed or have completed their clinical trial enrolment, so by november, we should have at least the front running vaccines which does include 0xford, running vaccines which does include oxford, in includes the pfizer vaccine, where they will have completed the enrol. . the bit we don't know is whether or not there have been sufficient infections in those clinical trials, to be able to statistically show that people who have received a vaccine are protected versus those who haven't, and of course, the holy grail question is do they work? but i have to say i am optimistic, i think it is important we manage expectation, that this is not likely to be a one

and done, a silver bullet that will put everything back to rights immediately, but i do think based on the data generated so far, we have room to be optimistic, and we mustn't rush it. we need to ensure that everything is done safely and properly, and we are in a good position, the uk is well positioned. but when realistically can people expect to be offered vaccinations in the uk? well, if the first two vaccines or either of them show they are both safe and effective, i think there is a possibility that vaccine roll out will start this side of christmas, but otherwise i think it is more realistic to expect it to be early next year. and who would be given them first? as a priority? that is matter for the department oflet who works with the expert committee, which are the joint committee, which are the joint committee of vaccination immunisation and they advice the government on priorities and who should get it first. they have put

on their website their initial advice obviously in the absence of the final clinical data, so that advice may change, they have prioritised care home residents and worker, front line health care workers and the over 805, then down roughly in age order, including those adults with severe underlying diseases. is there not a risk in rushing out to give vaccines to people who are already vulnerable, if they are old or have health issues, given this vaccine has been produced very fast, we don't know what the long—term consequences are, like we didn't know about long covid at the beginning? the safety trials have not been, have not been compromised, they have not been rushed, no changes to the high standards of safety, have taken place in the development of the vaccines, so i don't, again, i am not concerned that the safety has been compromised. we don't know, we might be able to be do initial tests

on side effects but we don't know what they are in a year or five yea rs or what they are in a year or five years or ten year, do we? no, we don't and of course we need to run those studies to see, but, that is why we, the jcb. those studies to see, but, that is why we, thejcb. it has recommended that the people that receive the vaccines are those who are most at risk from infection, so, yes, we don't know what the consequences might be in five or ten years, but the fact is, if these vulnerable people have risk of severe mortality or morbidity, if they get the infection, then i think that is something each individual person and the government and thejcbi need to consider, but you need to think about, if you take the mmra vaccine, thatis about, if you take the mmra vaccine, that is in the body for a very short time before it is degraded, so, biologically it is unlikely there are biologically it is unlikely there a re lots of biologically it is unlikely there are lots of long—term consequences but we can't say that until we have

run the studies and look at them. given there is that risk, can you explain for me briefly what the different vaccines are, because they work with different mechanisms, are any of them live, you knowjabs as we know sometimes you get a reaction to the flu jab, don't you. yes, we have the two front running vaccine, the two class, one is a virus that gets into the cells, and gets in the spike protein translated by the cell, and that is how you make the protein, there are different ways of exposing the body to a viral covid protein, so there is a viral, one virus is the same at the oxford, so thatis virus is the same at the oxford, so that is a viral approach. the mrna approach, instead of bringing in the genetic material with a virus, is literally injected in, so then again the body makes their own protein, you would just have vaccines where

you would just have vaccines where you inject the protein itself, that is what the nova vaccine is, you can have inactivated whole virus, that is where you grow up covid—19, render it inactive and that is the vaccine itself. so they are all different ways of exposing the immune system to the viral protein, in order to elicit an immune response. we don't know which if any are going to be the most potent at stimulating the strongest immune response, or, which may provoke the longest lasting immune response, and so that is why in the uk, what we have done is to build a portfolio of six different axe have as across the four different formats so we can maximise our chances of having a success vaccine maximise our chances of having a success vaccine that will work for ebb, it may be that different vaccines will work for different people, so, the older people's immune system is not as robust, it has got tyred compared with a young

person's immune system. it may be we will have different vaccines for different people. that is really interesting. let me bring in some questions we have had from our viewer, we have a few here, i will rattle through them if i can. i will start with glenys's question. she ask will a vaccine help to improve the health of those suffering from long covid? so that is a really good question. i think it might do, so, a vaccine interfering with early infection and disease might presthraent long covid, which is thought to be some sort of immune disease. now we don't know enough about it but i think it mightjust have some benefit, but again, we need to run the experiments to see. biologically it could be possible, yes. thank you. anita asks, is the virus mutating and if so, will the vaccine be of any use? there are lots of mutations aren't there there there aren't really. there is one

main mutation and that is the predominant form of covid—19. and we haven't seen this virus mutate very rapidly, but equally the virus isn't under pressure, because we are not, we don't have drugs and vaccines at the moment trying to eliminate it. so it is possible that it will mutate further, like flu, but at the moment we haven't seen a lot of mutations, if it does mutate sufficiently far away from its current form, then we will need to develop vaccines again, but again, the fact is we are in a very good position, in terms of our speed of being able to develop new vaccines because of the work we have put in on this pandemic. quickly, do viruses upon stains youly become less pathogenic? no they will mutate across all aspects of the generals, and then it is darwin, so survival

of the fittest, so they will mutate until they can continue to reproduce, and not get eliminated by drugs or vaccines. but this is a very long virus, so i think that because we haven't seen a lot of mutations yet, i am hopeful this won't be a rapidly mutating virus. let me bring in a question from anne. what are implication fors the vaccine if antibodies drop off? that isa vaccine if antibodies drop off? that is a good yes. what we are seen and she is referring to this react two study which shows that neutralising antibodies come off quickly, but the reality is we do not know the rules of long lasting immunity, we do know that antibodies to flu drops off but we know that even in the cases of flu, people that get infected have reduced symptoms, after their vaccine, so i think where we will

end up, it is likely we need both antibodies and t—cell, antibodies are basically parts of the immune system that bind the virus and stop them getting into cells and then the t—cells go in and mop up after anything where viruss have gone got into cell, they go in and eliminate the infected cells, so, just looking at antibodies is probably not the full wick or char and of course you have the —— picture, the underlying cells that make the cells and they are called memory cell, fundamentally that is where we will need to look as to can we stimulate those memory b and t—cells to make sure we can retain that recognition of the virus. i wish we had more time. i will bring in another question. how come china is using a sort of vaccine, why are we logging

—— lagging behind sort of vaccine, why are we logging -- lagging behind they have three vaccine, two are inactivity visited a and another is a viral based reaction. the inactivated virus vectors are, i think likely to work, they are now in their big phase three clinical studies, they have not reported any phase three efficacy data yet. they have got ahead early in this form of vaccine, because they had the facilities to grow these nasty virus, we have invested in one in scotland. they will produce whole inactivated viruses shortly, and so we will have our own form of virus like that, but the two chinese vaccines are definitely ahead on that type of vaccine. then they have another vaccine. then they have another vaccine derived from the virus that caused the common flu, or the common cold, and the reason why that i think is less likely to be after ——

effective is most people have had colds and therefore most people have antibodies against that particular virus. there are heavy showers, some may thundery with gusty winds, and low pressure very much in charge of our weather for the rest of the week, and into the weekend. further spells of rain and wind. this area of low pressure driving our weather today, pushing in the showers, on a fresh to strong south—westerly wind. now because of the wind direction, most of the showers will be towards the south and west of the uk, again heavy, thundery, perhaps with hail, some on the wind will push east but we will see fewer showers to north east scotland. these are average wind speeds, they are gusting 35—40 meryl, nearer 50. so wind speeds, they are gusting 35—40 meryl, nearer50. so cooler day, particularly for england and wales, and really rough and high seas in the west, particularly into western

scotland, where into the first part of the night the showers merge for a longer spell of rain. clearer skies to the east will allow temperatures to the east will allow temperatures to drop away into single figure, a mild night to the west, look at this rain coming in by the end of the night. that will push north and east across the uk during thursday, so all were the northern isle, some rain will be heavy, the winds pick up rain will be heavy, the winds pick up and even where the rain clears later in the afternoon we keep a good deal of cloud, still patchy rain and drizzle but it will be turning milder, this weatherfront will wriggle round as we go into friday before gradually pushing southwards, the wriggling will take place we think towards wales and north—west england where another speu north—west england where another spell of heavy rain at least during the first part of friday will lift the first part of friday will lift the rain total, bring a risk of flooding and disruption, some of the higher totals will be in the hills, that gradually easing southwards during friday, behind it brighter skies for scotland and northern ireland with a few shower, and

really mild day, despite the cloud in the east. bit of a break for a time on friday night. doesn't last long, fresh area of low pressure going to bring in windier weather during saturday and again, more heavy rain, some heavy and perhaps torrential bursts of rain, sweeping east across the uk, with strong squally winds as well, very mild start to the weekend, though, with some places still with temperatures into the high teens.

new warnings about the impact of the second wave of the coronavirus. with predictions of a rise in cases, some scientists warn of the consequences of not bringing in tougher measures. it's quite plausible that by the end of next month, there would be 500 deaths a day. at one covid hotspot, in northern ireland, a fall in cases, but a warning. we are all in this together. if all of us are not in together, there will be lives which will be lost. and you can see it that as soon as the lockdown happened, the hospital admissions did come down. don't cancel christmas — the government says it's too early to say what the covid rules will be over the festive period. we'll have the latest from across the uk and europe.

when you