new warnings about the impact of the second wave of the coronavirus. with predictions of a rise in cases, some scientists warn of the consequences of not bringing in tougher measures. it's quite plausible that by the end of next month, there would be 500 deaths a day. at one covid hotspot, in northern ireland, a fall in cases, but a warning. we are all in this together. if all of us are not in together, there will be lives which will be lost. and you can see it that as soon as the lockdown happened, the hospital admissions did come down. don't cancel christmas — the government says it's too early to say what the covid rules will be over the festive period. we'll have the latest from across the uk and europe.

when you lockdown measures are expected today. also this lunchtime: on the campaign trail. donald trump promises a great red wave, as his rival, joe biden, calls him a conman. the candidates receive a warning on gun control — from a computer—generated image of a teenager shot dead two years ago. yo.. it's me. i have been gone for two years and nothing has changed, bro. as part of black history month, a special report on the struggles faced by black players in the white—dominated world of scottish football. coming up in the sport later in the hour on bbc news: another super league match is postponed, after a covid outbreak at one of the clubs. castleford tigers report 12 positive cases.

good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. as the number of covid infections rises, there are new warnings from scientists that more needs to be done to protect people — and to prevent a much worse second wave. with christmas not far off, the government's also under pressure france and germany are expected to announce tougher measures later today. at one minute past midnight, nottingham will be the latest area to move into tier 3. warrington will also be under tier 3 restrictions, joining manchester where they came in last week and liverpool which has been under tier 3 for a fortnight. imposing restrictions locally is designed to keep the economy open as

much as possible. but with figures rising across the uk and europe, scientists are indicating all of england could be under tier 3 by christmas as the number of infections raise. with our current measures, which are similar but with variations in different parts of europe, there is still evidence there is not as much social distancing as there was when we clamped down on the first wave and so we know that the risk is significant and cases will continue to grow. so it is not unrealistic to think of 25,000 people being in hospital by the end of next month? it is certainly not unrealistic to think about that. the most recent figures show 367 people died in the latest 24—hour period. with over 22,000 confirmed cases. that means on average in the past week, 200 deaths were announced every day. the concern is the number of deaths may not peak as high as much, but they will remain constant for a longer period. things do look very serious indeed. i have been looking at the

desk at we had a very large number reported yesterday, but they are going at over 150 a day and doubling every two to three weeks, so that means it is quite plausible that by the end of next month, there would be 500 deaths a day. in nottingham, where they are preparing for tighter restrictions, not everyone is convinced they will work. my sister is in manchester, whether they have already entered tier 3 and she says it is the same, they still serve food and give you as many drinks as you would like. i don't really think it is going to make a difference. to keep shutting down, the city will go bust. there will be nothing left of it. clothes shops, there isjust going to be nothing left of it, that is the problem. i think there are 28 days for us to be in tier 3, i think we'll will be in it a lot longer. the government believes the evidence still backs local restrictions, when questioned about a national england wide firebreak. no, i don't think thatis wide firebreak. no, i don't think that is right and i don't think that

is consistent with the epidemiological picture we are seeing or indeed consistent with the pressures that are being seen in different parts of the health service across the country. hospitals are feeling the pressure, particularly in the north of england. but admissions are still far below what was experienced in the spring. and there has been a substantial improvement in survival amongst people admitted with coronavirus disease. as treatments have improved and far more is now known about the virus. keith doyle, bbc news. one of the uk's covid hotspots — derry and strabame — was one of the first to introduce local restrictions three weeks ago. the bbc‘s northern ireland health correspondent, marie—louise connolly, has been given exclusive access to altnagelvin hospital's covid and icu wards — hearing how people there have been dealing with the virus. sandra kelly tested positive for covid—i9 almost a fortnight ago. on day eight, her condition worsened and the 58—year—old grandmother was admitted to altnagelvin

hospital. sandra is one of 20 seriously ill patients being treated on ward 21. this used to be where patients recovered after hip and knee operations, but the pressures of the pandemic mean it was scaled up into another covid unit just a few weeks ago — and patients like sandra say they feel lucky to be here. i thought i was going to die. that's how bad i was. the hospital, doctors and nurses, work round the clock to try and save you, and that's what they done with me. it was horrendous. for the staff, it's relentless work, as one 12—hour shift rolls into the next. most have families. laura here has two young boys. i'm exhausted here at the minute. i came on from half seven last night, just finishing. we came in to 15 patients at the start of the night.

we had patients moved to another ward to try and accommodate room in here. we've now 20 patients this morning. this is us full. what really stands out here is the tremendous sense of calm and dedication from every single member of staff. of course, in every case, they're helping people, helping patients, but particularly here in the intensive care unit, they're trying to save lives. so, we had 68 patients this morning here positive on—site and one patient in ed... the bbc was invited in to altnagelvin hospital to highlight the pressures on all aspects of care. at the morning management meeting, the scale of the challenges are laid bare. but there's no real signs that the pressures are going off. 0nly last week, the number of positive cases was so high, derry and strabane was considered one of the uk's hotspots. but as a result of the local restrictions imposed, the bbc can now reveal that the cases of covid—19 have dropped by almost a half.

i'd like to say thank you because, er, we are all in this together. if all of us are not in together, there will be lives which will be lost. and you can see it that as soon as the lockdown happened, the hospital admissions did come down. that does not mean we are out of the woods. so, for now, those working the front line in altnagelvin can cope. the hope is that will continue in the weeks ahead. marie—louise connolly, bbc news. the goverment says it's too early to say what covid rules will be in place by christmas, as it comes under mounting pressure for more clarity in the run—up to the festive period. ministers in england have suggested larger group celebrations may not be allowed. there are also calls for the four nations to agree on uniform guidance — as our political correspondent, jess parker, reports. downing street last december. the day after the general election. before covid caused a dramatic change in the way we live our lives.

what will happen this christmas? ministers warn it is too early to say. there will be undoubtedly frustrations about the restrictions that people are having to abide by, but i think people also understand that we have to control the spread of this virus, we'll have a role to play in doing that. i am sure we will be able to a good christmas and families will be able to meet. but they may not be able to get together in the large groups that they normally would. so as winter approaches, a suggestion for england that there will be no big gatherings this christmas. but with varying grills across the uk, today calls for consistency. the problem i see at the moment is different rules in different parts of the united kingdom. and while i strongly believe in devolution, i think parts of the pandemic response is seen that work well, i think for christmas, there has to be a coordinated plan. so questions about safe travel across the uk, students returning home from university, how many people will be able to gather

together. in normal times, many people will be able to gather together. in normaltimes, it many people will be able to gather together. in normal times, it might seem together. in normal times, it might seem like christmas is just around the corner, only a couple of months away. but in the age of covid, change can come fast and the truth is, a lot could happen between now and december. hallowe'en has not even happened yet, but christmas, for many people, matters much more. it isa for many people, matters much more. it is a case of, do you really want to put the grandparents at risk? by having them around. most likely, immediate family and keep it small. but you never know what rules are going to change. we are going to try and be as safe as possible, but ideally, we want to meet because life is so short anyway. in the summer, ministers faced criticism after sudden rule changes curbed eid in parts of england. many will be desperate to see their families this christmas and ministers will want to avoid setting rules that stretch the limits of public compliance.

nottinghamshire's move into tier 3 has been delayed and is now set to include the whole county. sian lloyd is in nottingham. the confusion doesn't help. no, there is still a great deal of confusion and for people in nottingham city centre and the three boroughs, if i turn the clock back on monday night, they were told they would move into tier 3, the very high risk group, at one minute past midnight tonight. they were told the next day, so yesterday, they were going to get details of the exact financial package and how they could prepare for these changes. these changes didn't come and we understand there were a lot of meetings taking place behind closed doors because of the rise in cases further wide across the county. that they would need to be brought into this tier 3. and that is what we now understand is going to happen. so it

looks like there is a delay for those three boroughs and the city centre to move into tier 3, it will be one minutes past midnight on friday, we think. but also, the whole of nottinghamshire will now come under these more stringent restrictions. so people being told something completely different within 48 hours from what they were being told on monday, so a lot of a nswe i’s being told on monday, so a lot of a nswers wa nted being told on monday, so a lot of answers wanted here in nottingham by people i have spoken to, i have spoken to people out and about. they are quite crass, they are angry and they are certainly confused. thank you very much. —— cross. 0ur health editor, hugh pym, is here. let's ta ke let's take stock, where are we? there are a difficult series of decisions being looked at in whitehall for england on what to do next. and there have been reports about the expert advisory group stage projecting this will be pretty difficult for some time and death numbers will be higher. we heard in key‘s piece earlier two members of

sage saying the number of hospital admissions will carry ongoing up and the number of deaths could reach 500 a day, based on what is in place at the moment. members of sage are saying clock back to what they said in september, which was that it needs a circuit breaker, something quite significant nationally for england to try to stop the virus spreading. but clearly, ministers have to look at the economic impacts, whether it is fair to impose something for the whole of england when infection rates are much higher in some parts of the country than others. the issue about the impact on people's well—being. but certainly, it is a tricky really tojudge where to but certainly, it is a tricky really to judge where to go next. the scientific view on sage is that something tougher is going to be required. but it is a complex series of trade—offs that have to be considered. and the numbers certainly are going in the wrong direction right now, whether it is hospital admissions or whether it is deaths, tragic though they are, but

it is worth pointing out as we have heard before that treatments are people in hospital are getting better. people are surviving when before, that was looking less likely. so that is the round—up of where we are now and we will have to watch the data, as always. thank you very much. what's the picture in europe? france and germany are expected to announce new measures today. in a moment, we'll speak tojenny hill in berlin, but first to hugh schofield, in paris. here, the country has been put on notice to expect something pretty drastic this evening when president macron addresses the country again. the word from the is elysee that scientific opinion believes it is out of control and numbers are exploding. the second wave appears more virulent than anybody at the elysee expected and some kind of shock measure is in order. more than 500 dead yesterday in france. nearly

3,000 people in critical beds, that is more than 50% of the critical beds available. and what everyone is expecting tonight is some new form of national lockdown. the last few months, we have had regional solutions being applied, curfews in paris and other cities, a curfew now across two thirds of the population. but even that has not been enough. tonight, we expect him to say there will be another national lockdown, but with a difference, there will be exemptions for schools which will remain open probably and there will bea remain open probably and there will be a looser system for workers so not everyone will be required to work from home. angela merkel in germany has made no secret of the fa ct germany has made no secret of the fact she is increasingly concerned. case numbers in germany are much lower than france of britain but they are rising extremely fast. mrs merkel has a plan. it is not quite a lockdown, but she would like to shut

down bars, restaurants, museums, theatres, fitness centres. crucially, not schools and probably not most shops. but mrs merkel does not most shops. but mrs merkel does not have the power to implement measures like that, that lies in the hands of the leaders of germany's 16 states and she is holding regional talks with those 16 prime ministers and it is likely to be stormy because they don't agree and many would like to implement measures which goes way beyond what mrs merkel suggests and others balk at the idea of a shutdown. this is the country that initially handled the outbreak successfully and other countries looked on with some envy, but we are now seeing debates here similarto but we are now seeing debates here similar to those in the uk. should there be a circuit breaker, should longer term restrictions apply only to the vulnerable ? longer term restrictions apply only to the vulnerable? we will have to wait and see what mrs merkel trashes out with those regional prime ministers, but uppermost in their minds is the time of year. if, the thinking goes, they can get the situation back under control, then maybe, just maybe, that traditional german christmas can go ahead as

planned. our top story this lunchtime: with the rise in coronavirus cases some scientists warn of the consequences of not bringing tougher measures. it is quite plausible that by the end of next month we could have 500 deaths a day. coming up in the sport in the next 15 minutes on bbc news — there's a covid controversey in baseball's world series as a los angeles dodgers player discovers mid—game that he has tested positive, but stilljoins his teamates to celebrate. with less than a week to the us presidential election, the democratic candidatejoe biden has taken his campaign to the state of georgia — normally a republican stronghold. president trump has been holding rallies in michigan, wisconsin and nebraska — promising a giant red wave. 0ur north america correspondent david willis reports.

in the georgian hot springs town where franklin roosevelt once sought treatment for polio, another democrat, joe biden, pledged to heal the country's wounds. anger and suspicion are growing. and our wounds are getting deeper. and many wonder, has it gone too far? have we passed the point of no return? has the heart of this nation turned to stone? i don't think so. two socially distanced rallies here are being seen as a sign of confidence on the part of the biden team. not since bill clinton back in 1992 has georgia supported a democrat in a presidential election. but polls put the two candidates neck and neck. little social distancing in evidence here by comparison. and many at this trump rally were also maskless.

donald trump is seeking to defend the midwestern states of michigan and wisconsin, states he narrowly won four years ago. and despite trailing in the polls, he clearly believes history will repeat itself. you're going to see a giant red wave on tuesday. cheering. you're going to see a red wave like they've never seen before, and they saw a very big one, i'll tell you what, they got a glimpse on four years ago, because that was... and remember they said, "where did these people come from? where did they come from?" a little while later, the trump campaign was dealt a setback when its website was taken over by hackers who claimed to have information that discredited the president. the donald] trump website was offline completely for about 30 minutes, and the campaign subsequently released a statement saying it had been defaced and that they were working with law enforcement to investigate the source of the attack. no sensitive data had been compromised, the statement said.

meanwhile, americans are already voting in record numbers. nearly 70 million people have already cast their ballot. that's nearly half the total number that voted in the presidential election four years ago. counting might take days or even weeks, to the consternation of donald trump, who repeated his opposition to delaying the outcome in order to count millions of postal votes. he wants a result on election night, setting the stage for a battle that could end up in the courts. david willis, bbc news, los angeles. gun control is a major issue in the presidential campaign — joe biden wants it tightened. the mass shooting of 17 students at a school in florida two years ago sparked a generation that hadn't been heard before. as nomia iqbal reports, to get their message across in this election, they're using shock tactics — with a voice from the recent past. yo. it's me.

it's guac. a voice from beyond the grave. i've been gone for two years and nothing's changed, bro. joaquin 0liver was murdered at his school in parkland. he's been brought to life by virtual reality. vote for people, not getting shot, bro! i mean, vote for me, because i can't. this is our son. this is his activism. this is his fight. his parents are committed to a lifelong campaign — a voice on behalf of their murdered son. we talked about the vegas shooting after it happened and then we talked about the pulse nightclub in orlando shooting, and he was very disappointed about a system that was not able to fix that. and then, a few months later, it happened to him. 17 people died that day, in one of the most devastating school shootings in america.

but in this election season, if you travel across states like florida and beyond, you find passion about guns and the right to own one still run high. americans own most of the world's civilian weapons. the right to keep and bear arms is protected by the constitution in the second amendment. it's a higher capacity shot gun. and guns are big business. with covid coming about, we had a very, very significant increase of sales. then we had the civil unrest, so that increased sales. now we have an election, which kind of keeps the fire burning. they enjoy lots of habits, like golf and tennis. we spend a lot of money on toys that we play with. we don't necessarily mean any harm. and like the rest of america, president trump and joe biden couldn't be further apart when it comes to gun control. donald trump sastoe biden will take away people's second amendment rights. joe biden says he won't, but wants more gun control.

what happened here in parkland mobilised a generation in a way that hadn't been seen before. this wasn't the first mass shooting, it wasn't the first school shooting, but it took students here all the way to washington. 20—year—old ryan deitsch survived the parkland shooting... we're done hiding! ..and organised a huge protest with other students, calling for tighter gun regulations. as far as the eye could see, just a horde of people. it was a tremendous and amazing experience. two years on, there's been little change. this is going to take a long, long time. i don't even expect it to come, regardless of who wins this presidency. it is not something to be expected, it is something to be fought for. it is something to be lobbied for, it is something to be protested for. and it's a fight that we are willing to have, because it's a fight worth winning. in this deeply divided nation, the issue of gun rights defines which side you're on and, in such a polarising election, it's unlikely any politician will be

able to bridge that divide. nomia iqbal, bbc news, florida. gary o'donoghue is in washington. it looks like a tight race from here, is that how it looks there? actuallyjoe biden and his lead in some key battle ground states is pretty solid. if you look at parts of the upper midwest, michigan, wisconsin, he is eight or nine points ahead and has been for some time and that obviously is well beyond the polling error margin. in pennsylvania it is a bit tighter depending on which aggregate you look at. where you have seen narrowing is in places like florida and georgia where the president has made up some ground. florida and georgia are really a toss up now, north carolina is also very close.

you have to remember these are states that the president took last time and needs to win this time in order to retain the white house. if he loses pennsylvania for example it is very hard to see how he would pick up enough votes elsewhere to make up the difference. those 20 electoral votes. if you lose florida which we should hear about on election night itself, then it is pretty much game over. but still a few days to go and the voters are absolutely voting en masse, 71 million votes already cast and that is more than half of the total votes cast in the entire election last time around. gary, thank you. some of the world's longest and tightest covid—19 restrictions have been lifted — in the australian state of victoria. around five million people in melbourne can now return to shops, pubs, and restaurants — for the first time in nearly four months. in recent days no new cases have been reported.

heathrow says it's no longer europe's busiest airport and has announced losses of one and a half billion pounds for the first nine months of the year. passenger numbers betweenjuly and september were down 84% on the same period last year. heathrow is urging the government to embrace testing for coronavirus at uk airports. a long—awaited report by the nhs in scotland has revealed that 123 people were moved from hospitals to care homes during the first three months of the pandemic — despite having tested positive. lorna gordon is in glasgow. what reaction to this? this report is long—awaited and states more than 3500 people were discharged from hospitals into care homes in scotla nd hospitals into care homes in scotland between the start of march and the 21st of april. some of those people tested positive, many of them we re people tested positive, many of them were not tested at all. the report by public health scotland says the clinical advice at the beginning of the pandemic was that people who did not have symptoms should not be tested and it also states they were

valid reasons for not testing such as an inability to consent and end—of—life situations. but of those tested, 78 were discharged into care homes with coronavirus. it has to be taken in the context of course that the virus has had a devastating impact on care homes, more than 2000 residents of care homes in scotland died with coronavirus. but the report states that taking on its own they may appear to be a link between patients with the virus been transferred to care homes and subsequent outbreaks. but when other i’ subsequent outbreaks. but when other r factors subsequent outbreaks. but when other rfactors are say it is not statistically significant. it also states account they say it is not statistically significant. it also states that care homes the size had the strongest association with outbreaks of covid—19. nicola sturgeon has said the report is likely to offer little comfort to the the size had the strongest association with outbreaks of cover i9. association with outbreaks of cover 19. nicola sturgeon has said the report is likely to offer little comfort to the families of those who died in she pointed out that there is now routine weekly testing of. she pointed out that there is now

routine weekly testing of care home insisted her government is working to continue to improve safety in ca re to continue to improve safety in care homes. lorna, thank you. for many young black footballers growing up in england in the late 80s and early 90s, finding a player they could relate to wasn't too difficult withjohn barnes and ian wright being some of the biggest stars. but in scotland, such figures were few and far between. chris iwelumo and kevin harper were both black players who came up through the system. as part of our ongoing coverage to mark black history month, they have been telling the bbc‘s jonathan mckeith — a former dundee united youth player himself — about the barriers they faced. i remember walking out for st mirren against dundee, and there was a father, he had his son and daughter in his hand, and the names that he was calling me. he was calling me the big black bu this and.... how old were you? i was 17, 18 years old. even though this was just at the start of chris iwelumo's professional career, racial abuse coming up in the scottish game was all too familiar. and it wasn'tjust on the terraces.

i'd scored an absolute peach of a goal, but my first touch had put their striker through and the manager's went, "you big black b." a person of authority, someone that you had complete respect for, speaking to you like that. i never played against another black footballer from under 12s to under 18s. ian wright, john barnes, that's who i was, out in the playground, you know. when i came into english football, you realise where you've been, how you were very much on your own, north of the border. when you delve into the history books, there is something which isn't widely known. it was scotland which in 1881 gave football its first black international player. andrew watson, depicted here in recent weeks to preserve his legacy, and alljust a short distance from scotland's national stadium. watson captained the country in a landmark 6—1 victory over england, but it would be more than 120 years before another black player represented the men's team. this month, the scottish football

association launched a number of initiatives to combat racism and promote equality. former hibernian player kevin harper believes it should be a priority. at that time, there wasn't many black scottish kids that came through the ranks. for there not to be as many coming through in football, there must be, there must be an issue there. to have that steady stream of good quality players, there has to be a grassroots thing. pulling on thejersey, you know, singing the national anthem, the goosebumps. and you felt you could just cry. it's the greatest honour for any footballer. pioneers come from different beginnings and show us what can be achieved. but they're also a reminder of how far the scottish game has to go. i'm black. i'm scottish. i'm proud of who i am. jonathan mckeith, bbc news. time for a look at the weather.