covid—19 is spreading "significantly" faster through england than even the government's own "worst case" plans — according to its experts. they say numbers with the virus needing hospital care were already higher than anticipated — theirfears are backed up by the country's chief statistician. it's very difficult to think that we are going to do anything other over the next few weeks than, very, very sadly, see an increase in deaths. it comes as figures suggest that daily new cases of coronavirus in homes in england jumped by nearly 50% last week. also tonight — a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece — the devastation leaves at least 1a dead and hundreds injured. the us has buried more people with covid—19

than any other country — we look at the pandemic‘s impact on next week's presidential election. have never seen nobby stile! this i have never seen nobby stiles like this before. and nobby stiles, who played in the world cup winning england team in 1966, has died after a long illness, aged 78. and coming up on bbc news — three teams could still win this year's six nations title, heading into the final round of matches this weekend. good evening. coronavirus is now spreading faster through england than the government's own worst case scenario. that's according to a report by the scientific advisory

group for emergencies — which says there are around four times as many people catching covid—19 than it was prepared for. it comes as the office for national statistics estimates that over 500,000 people in england have had coronavirus in the last week, that'si in 100 people. the head of the 0ns, sir ian diamond has described the picture as gloomy — as the virus was "moving very quickly" through the population. 0ur health editor hugh pym reports. tracking the virus. testing of more than 150,000 people with and without symptoms gives a feel for how widespread the virus is in local communities and the data from the most communities and the data from the m ost rece nt communities and the data from the most recent weeks‘ survey suggests it is still increasing. the uk had statistician gave me his assessment of where things stand with covid—19. i have to be fairly gloomy and i do

believe we are continuing and we have to be faultless in everybody following the rules, if not i fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase. the ons estimate immunity to the virus leading up to october 23, most relative to the local population we re relative to the local population were in northern ireland, police in scotland, but there were many variations in england, many more in the north—west relative to the population than in the south—west of england. in the north—east of england. in the north—east of england there was evidence of a slowdown in numbers and a bigger gap with the north west, yorkshire and humber regions. things are going in

the wrong direction. a meeting of the wrong direction. a meeting of the sage advisory committee reveal a pessimistic mood. a paperfrom the group tracking the spread of the virus says in england the number of daily deaths is now in line with those in the reasonable worst case and is almost certain to exceed this in the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario in the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario is 80,000 covid deaths over the winter, although officials say government interventions could help. policymakers in the uk are under increasing pressure to come up with a plan for families to meet over christmas and the first minister in wales had a message for downing street. we need to share information, we need to share ideas, and wherever we can, particularly over the christmas period, i would like to see a common approach as we can craft together, recognising that the state of the virus and response thatis the state of the virus and response that is being made does differ from

one part of the uk to another. in parts of scotland, face coverings will be required in more situations. the latest government figures show there were 274 deaths reported — that‘s people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. it means on average in the past week 237 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 46,229. 0ur health editor hugh pym is with me now. how serious overall is the situation? the r number, the range has come down a little bit, and that, officials say, reflects possibly

some of the measures that have already been taken back to the fact it is still above one shows it is still increasing and we heard that underlined by the 0ns. the mood is gloomy and these minutes of sage suggest a couple of weeks ago when they were meeting they thought the trajectory was going to be worse than where they thought it would be, worse than their worst—case scenario. 85,000 deaths overwinter was that scenario and it is just for planning purposes and if you take action at central and local level it could be lower than that. what happens now? ministers for england are extremely stuck with the idea, sticking with the plan of regional restrictions, this tiered system, because they do not want to penalise people in lower infection areas but increasing calls are for a national lockdown including from the leader

of the council. more areas in england have moved or are about to move into tier 3 — that‘s the highest alert level. it means that by the end of the weekend, almost 20% of the country‘s population will be living under the highest tier of measures. this is the picture across the uk with a range of restrictions across the four nations. today, in england, nottinghamshire moved into tier 3. it means some bars and pubs have had to close, and also betting shops, saunas, tattoo pa rlours and nail salons. west yorkshire is to join them in the highest level on monday, and it‘s thought that tees valley could follow. 0ur correspondent dan johnson has more. last night — nottingham city centre, just before england‘s toughest restrictions took hold across the county. i think i‘m disappointed to see those scenes, but what we really need to do is for everybody to play their part in bringing this virus down, and that extends to everybody in our communities, whether young or old.

and further north, in mansfield, we found ray, just back from a trip over the border. the bookies is open, because i like a little bet on the old horses... because everything — the bookies are shut here. so you‘ve just crossed... into a new border, yes. that‘s breaking the rules. why ain't i allowed to do that? you‘re not supposed to cross... they didn't tell me that, they didn't tell me that. and pubs are open over there. have you had a pint? i have had a pint. so do you think the rules are not clear? well, the rules are clear, but they're there for breaking. but some are staying in. and the town centre‘s quiet. it‘s not lockdown. it‘s just three, isn‘t it? so it‘s trying to tell the customers to come into the marketplace, get them back down here, because they‘ve got it in their mind that it‘s actually locked down. it‘s not. do you think it‘s panicking people? panicking? it‘s crazy. i would like to understand why i can go have my hair done — which i have this morning,

although it looks a mess — but i can't have my nails done. and the people who rely on that income are feeling short—changed. there‘s no evidence to say that there‘s any transmission of any covid in any salons, so i don‘t understand why they picked on us. these restrictions are mostly in place for a month initially, but what then? could they be relaxed or will they potentially have to be tightened further? and what if life has to carry on like this? what impact could that have? connie‘s feeling it after months of shielding in west yorkshire, where tier 3 will extend from monday. social isolation... you know, it‘s very damaging. it‘s very... it‘s wearing, it‘s tiring, it‘s stressful. back in north nottinghamshire, some want to see more rules. national lockdown. just lock down everything at the minute, just clear the virus up.

there is no point in closing down cornwall if they are fine, but overall, i don't know, i think we need a circuit breaker. with the virus still spreading, the patchwork of rules will roll out further, constraining more communities, more families and more lives. danjohnson, bbc news, mansfield. the government‘s furlough scheme to help businesses and employees ends tomorrow, to be replaced by the less generous job support scheme. there are fears that the end of furlough will create more problems for some communities already hit hard by the pandemic‘s economic consequences. in wales, which has been in national lockdown for a week, the government has said people will be fined if they lie to coronavirus contact tracers. 0ur social affairs correspondent michael buchanan reports now from pontypool. the character of the community shines brightest in times of need. and here, these volunteers are displaying the best of us. whatever the weather they collect food parcels that neighbours have left

out for the local food bank. coronavirus has exacerbated existing economic problems and kindness of strangers is needed more than ever. in times of adversity we need to pull together more than ever. the numbers of people who need our help our growing which is why we cannot stop. we have been doing this for 22 weeks and we think it is probably going to get worse so there is no suggestion we are going to stop doing this and we will carry on. tomorrow may create more pressure. 0n the same day that i had my redundancy notice i had notice of eviction because my landlord is selling. it has been a bad fortnight for this person. her employer was unable to afford her wages. for this person. her employer was unable to afford her wagesm for this person. her employer was unable to afford her wages. it is going to be hard. it is going from

loving on a wage, you live by your means, to then going to level of universal credit. it is all good people saying you should not have bills or netflix, if you cannot afford it, but nobody knew they couldn't afford it before this happened. there have been 70 covid deaths in the local council area and the impact of the pandemic has ripped through other lives. more adults have become homeless, more children need a social worker, rent arrears have increased, applications for universal credit have searched and for everyjob for universal credit have searched and for every job vacancy for universal credit have searched and for everyjob vacancy there are 13 unemployed people. it is a health crisis that is causing a lot of human suffering but it is also a mental health crisis and an economic crisis. there is no shame in struggling especially at a time like this. groups like this food co-op

are likely to be needed in the months to come. the uk government will continue to support employers. some charities will be needed. a major earthquake has struck off the coast of turkey, north of the greek island of samos. at least 1a people are dead. hundreds were injured when buildings collapsed in the turkish city of izmir, and the quake was felt from athens to istanbul, from where 0rla guerin reports. amateur video captured the awful power of the quake. this multi—storey building disintegrated into dust. 0n the streets of izmir, there was fear and panic. shouting. i saw people crying, trying to reach out to their loved ones.

everyone was shocked and it was a very chaotic moment. about 20 buildings were brought down, but newer ones stayed standing — built after the last earthquake here in 1999 that claimed about 17,000 lives. soon, local people were clambering over the rubble — dazed, barehanded, searching desperately for neighbours and loved ones. and there were extraordinary moments. here, a woman emerges from the wreckage. initially, she comes walking out in her bare feet. then she‘s helped the rest of the way. more than 70 people have been

rescued, lucky to be alive. for some, emotional reunions. turkey sits on active fault lines. there‘s always a fear here of the next big one. and this was big enough to be felt in istanbul and the greek capital, athens. and danger came from the aegean, which surged onto the streets. sea levels rising because of a mini tsunami, a disaster movie made real. the impact felt in turkey and the great nations. sharing this moment of loss. 0rla guerin, bbc news, istanbul. our top story this evening: experts say covid—19 is spreading "significantly" faster through england than the government‘s "worst case" plans.

numbers needing hospital care are already higher than anticipated. and coming up — france remembers the three victims of this week‘s knife attack in nice. coming up on sportsday on bbc news: alun wyn jones — the record breaker — we hear from the wales captain as he prepares to win his 149th international cap — more than any other player. as the us presidential race enters its final weekend, more than 80 million americans have already cast their ballots. the issue that has dominated the campaign is the coronavirus pandemic, with america suffering many more deaths by far than any other country in the world. in the last of his special reports on the election, clive myrie looks now at how covid—19 has devastated one community in the crucial state of arizona — and how the virus could decide who wins the white house.

in our culture, as a navajo, as a native american, it‘s something we are not even supposed to do, to deal with death. but dealing with death is michael‘s calling, in the worst calling of the worst country for covid—19. —— in the west corner of the worst country for covid—19.

with covid patients we don‘t embalm usually, just keep them in the body bag. an undertaker, he prepares bodies for burial on the navajo lands of northern arizona. the numbers are going up again. so we are preparing for another influx of bodies. living in the largest of the native american territories, the navajo have suffered more coronavirus deaths per head of population than any of the 50 states of the union. many hundreds of people. there was that point when i went into our storage unit and ijust saw all those bodies laying there. and i knew two of them. it was a hard time for me, you know, knowing that those people are laying there, people that i‘ve known command they are here because of covid. it was heartbreaking. a good friend of mine, his son died of covid, and i‘ve

known him since he was a little boy. and i got the phone call, i was talking to him on the phone, and ijust told him, i said, "i can‘t imagine what you‘re going through." i‘ve known him since i was a child. and we both cried on the phone together. americans say their land is blessed by god. now, it‘s cursed, by covid—19. and the seemingly no clear strategy to end its hold on the land. navajo nation is one of the poorest parts of america. and mask mandates and curfews were introduced early in the pandemic. but the virus had already taken hold. and with few health care facilities,

many were left at covid‘s mercy. but that‘s the american story. that despite its untold riches, millions always struggle. this is tent city in phoenix. thousands homeless, some losing theirjobs due to the pandemic and now losing their lives. this pandemic is instant death. meetjames wright, his 62. people dying here in the camp. yeah, yeah, every day. pity would be no more if we didn‘t make somebody poor. if you look to your right they have a big—ass medical centre there but when you get covid—19 so bad ain‘t nothing that can help you, it‘s death, man. social distancing is tough in tent city. # macho, macho man... it‘s tough here too at this trump rally. but why?

what a crowd. we scrupulously kept our distance and wore masks at this gathering in tucson. but in this deeply polarised country, wearing or not wearing a face covering has become a political statement. this is chris and his family. so did you enjoy the atmosphere at the rally yesterday? we did. but the pandemic is still out there. that didn‘t worry you being with all those people yesterday? no. it didn't bother me one bit. if donald trump said everyone should wear a mask, he is following the signs, you would do it? —— he is following the science, you would do it? reluctantly, iwould, probably. do you think it‘s un—american to be forced to wear a mask? i do. i think it's un—american to force anybody to do something that there's no medical reason if you're not sick.

there has been a conflict in all of us during this time, and perhaps more so here in the land of the free. individualism versus collective responsibility. it‘s part of our culture to take care of one another. it‘s always the natives that are wearing masks. and you see that and a lot of non—natives are not that diligent but we as a people are. so this is really the start of covid, they opened this area here. in navajo nation, they had to build a new cemetery to take all the dead. and this is one of your close friends? yeah. covid is why he‘s laying here. ijust think it shouldn‘t have happened. the presidential election is above all a referendum on donald trump‘s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. whoever wins must guide this country out of the darkness to a better

shore reachable from here. clive myrie, bbc news, in navajo nation, northern arizona. france‘s interior minister has warned that more militant attacks are likely and said the country was at war with islamist ideology. his comments follow the fatal stabbing of three people in a knife attack at a church in nice. a memorial has been set up outside the basilica, with flowers and candles lit for the victims. it‘s the second such attack in france in two weeks, and president macron has held an emergency meeting with senior ministers. nick beake reports. at the notre dame basilica, they mourn the murders — a place of worship that became the site of killing. simone barreto silva arrived from brazil more than 30 years ago. the mother of three‘s last words — "tell my children i love them." translation: i want to remember her smile. what characterised simone was her smile.

that‘s what she‘ll leave to her children and to all people of nice. vincent loques was the churchwarden. he dedicated his life to keeping the place safe. but both they and a 60—year—old woman were defenseless yesterday morning. this was the moment police confronted their attacker. he‘s been named as 21—year—old brahim al—aouissaoui. he arrived in europe only recently from tunisia, where today his family said they had no idea what he would do. translation: when we talked that night, he said he had just arrived in the area and it‘s getting very late here. he went into the city by train at 6.30am the next morning, just hours before the attack. an extra 4,000 officers have been protecting french churches and schools, although many streets are deserted after the highest covid restrictions were brought back. france is once again in lockdown, and yet again in grief. this is the third terror

attack in barely a month. the country is fighting an invisible virus. and today, the government said it‘s a war against another enemy — islamist ideology. and the extremists are a shared enemy of the millions of muslims in france, according to one prominent community leader. translation: this terrorist act is an affront to our faith and our religion. i have asked the muslims of france to cancel all celebrations marking the prophet's birthday today and to mourn the victims. but in lebanon, france was condemned — elsewhere too, including in bangladesh, where there‘s still fury over president macron‘s defence of the right to publish cartoons of the prophet muhammad. back in france, no explanation for this latest attack, just a profound sadness that has become all too familiar. nick beake, bbc news, paris. the former england and manchester united player nobby stiles has died

my my pub labour leader sir keir starmer has said there‘s no need for a civil war starmer has said there‘s no need for a civilwar in starmer has said there‘s no need for a civil war in the party after the suspension ofjeremy corbyn. action was taken against mr corbyn because of his response to a report on anti—semitism within labour in which he said the scale of the problem had an overstated. the unite union leader len mccluskey has urged his members to stay in the party. the former england and manchester united player nobby stiles has died aged 78 after a long battle with illness, his family announced this evening. stiles played every minute of england‘s victorious 1966 world cup campaign. and he would go on to win a european cup with his boyhood club, manchester united, two years later. our sports correspondent andy swiss has been looking back at a remarkable career. he was one of sport‘s more unlikely heroes — the world cup winner with the toothless grin and the dancing feet. i have never seen nobby

stiles like this before. thatjig of delight on thatjoyous day in 1966 ensured nobby stiles‘ place in footballing folklore. but his talent had been a long time in the making, from his early years growing up in manchester through to a debut for england‘s schoolboys at 15. and in 1960, manchester united came calling. goal! what a goal! i used to walk over the bridge at old trafford when i was a kid with my uncle peter and be there, and also with my brother when we got older, and imagine that the tannoy was going to announce that there was a player short and "would norbert stiles come and get changed?" i could imagine it. stiles onto it now, and can he get a shot? he gets it! while stiles certainly had his attacking qualities, it was his defensive steel that marked him out. but his fearlessness brought him to england‘s attention. in 1965, he was called up by sir alf ramsey — and in february 1966, he scored his first and only international goal.

but stiles scored! a few months later, he was part of the team hoping to take england to world cup glory. and stiles‘ brave and often brilliant challenges helped england to become champions. the image of him dancing around wembley — trophy in one hand, false teeth in the other — is one he, like everyone else, could never forget. it‘s nice because people remember you for it. and they say, "oh, yeah, i remember yourjig," and they pass it onto their children and whatever. and so when it‘s seen, it‘s nice because, teeth or no teeth, it doesn‘t matter. you know, it was just the total enjoyment which i was doing. stiles never enjoyed the riches his achievements deserved, ultimately selling his medals to raise money for his family. but while others may have attracted more headlines, few inspired as much affection as nobby stiles, the man whose pure euphoria once captured a country‘s imagination.

time for a look at the weather. here‘s stav da naos. good evening. we are really in for a rough ride this weekend, many of us experience in gales and heavy rain. it's experience in gales and heavy rain. it‘s going to be quite stormy with a risk of severe gales in place is likely to lead to some disruption. through this evening and overnight it will stay quite cloudy and damp across parts of england and wales. the rain will become heavy and persistent as it moves north through the night. strengthening winds. it will be mild across england and wales, mid teen celsius by dawn. still quite chilly across the north of scotla nd still quite chilly across the north of scotland under clearer skies. the deep area of low pressure that arrives for saturday is being named @ storm aid and by the irish met service, this is where we are going to see the largest impact. further impacts across the irish sea, western parts of britain through the day, as winds really pick up. we will see a band of squally rain

moving eastwards. behind its guys brighten up. it stays quite wet across the north—west of the country. but widespread gales wherever you are, gusting up to 70 miles an houraround wherever you are, gusting up to 70 miles an hour around some irish sea coasts, likely to cause some disruption. despite that the wind and the rain, there will be quite a lot of milder air and the rain, there will be quite a lot of milderairaround, temperatures around mid teens celsius. it might not feel like that because of the strength of the wind. another feature for part two of the weekend, almost back to square one. another round of rain and gales, clearing away from the north and east of the country and then it‘s a widespread windy day with sunshine and blustery showers, these showers merging together through sunday afternoon produced longer spells of rain in the west. tending to stay sunnier in the east. mild in the south—east, cooler further sunnier in the east. mild in the south—east, coolerfurther north sunnier in the east. mild in the south—east, cooler further north and west. we have numerous yellow in force for rain and gales this weekend. likely to cause minor flooding and some disruption in places so stay tuned to weather forecast.