tonight at ten — covid—19 infections in england are outstripping the government's worst case scenario. its advisers say numbers needing hospital care are already higher than anticipated. theirfears are backed up by the country's chief statistician. it's very difficult to think that we're going to do anything other over the next few weeks then very, very sadly see an increase in deaths. with pressure on the government to abandon its localised tier system, we'll be asking if a national lockdown is inching closer. also tonight... a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece — the devastation leaves at least 19 dead and hundreds injured. the us has buried more people with covid—19 than any other country. we look at the pandemic‘s impact on next week's

presidential election. knowing that those people are laying there, people that i've known and they're here because of covid — it's heartbreaking. is the government about to give the go—ahead to a new nuclear power station at sizewell? i have never seen nobby stiles like this before. and nobby stiles, who played in the world cup winning england team in 1966, has died after a long illness, aged 78. and coming up on bbc news, the delayed men's six nations is set for a dramatic finale as three teams enter the final round with a chance of winning the title. good evening. coronavirus is now spreading faster through england than the government's own worst case scenario. that's according to a report

by the advisory group sage, which says there are around four times as many people catching covid—19 than it was prepared for. it comes as the office for national statistics estimates that over 500,000 people in england have had coronavirus in the last week, that's one in 100 people. the head of the 0ns, sir ian diamond, has described the picture as gloomy, as the virus was "moving very quickly" through the population. today's figures will increase pressure on the government for wider, national restrictions. our health editor hugh pym reports. preparing for a bleak winter. hospitals know more covid cases are on the way, some are extremely busy already and the outlook today has got darker. a comprehensive survey by the office for national statistics, testing those with and without symptoms of the virus in local communities, suggests there are steep increases in some areas. the head of the 0ns gave me his assessment of where things now stand with covid—19.

i've got to be fairly gloomy and i do believe that we are continuing to increase. i think we need to be absolutely tireless in everybody across the country following the rules because if not, then i fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase. the 0ns estimates how many people in the community had the virus in the period leading up to october 23rd. the most, relative to the local population, were in northern ireland, the least in scotland, but there were many variations within england, with many more in the north west, relative to the population, than in the south east of england. the 0ns did say that in the north east of england, there was evidence of a slowdown and slight reduction in case numbers and a bigger gap with the north west and yorkshire and humber regions.

but officials say, overall, things are going in the wrong direction and minutes of meetings of the government's sage advisory committee reveal a pessimistic mood. a paper on october 14th from a group tracking the spread of the virus says that in england, the number of daily deaths is now in line with the levels in the reasonable worst case and is almost certain to exceed this within the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario is 85,000 covid deaths over the winter, though officials say government interventions can reduce that. ministers at westminster say the system of local restrictions is the right response. we really need to lean into this and that is the way we avoid the more drastic measures which we don't want to take because of the impact that they would have on the economy. it must be right to take a focused, localised approach where the virus is the strongest, than to have the rather blunt tool of a nationwide blanket lockdown. but there are calls for a national lockdown in england. birmingham is widely tipped to be moved up to the very

high risk alert level, but the council leader says more needs to be done to prevent avoidable deaths. i don't believe that a move to tier 3 is the answer because i don't think it will be enough. i'm of the opinion that england needs to follow france, germany and wales with a national circuit breaker as quickly as possible. in parts of scotland, face coverings will be required for teachers and older secondary pupils in classrooms from monday, described by ministers as strengthened guidance — one more response from a national administration to the spread of the virus across the uk. hugh pym, bbc news. more areas in england have moved or are about to move into tier 3 — that's the highest alert level. by the end of the weekend, almost 20% of the country's population will be living under that top tier of measures. today, it was the turn of nottinghamshire, meaning bars and pubs have had to close, as well as betting shops, saunas, tattoo parlours and nail salons.

from there, danjohnson reports. last night — nottingham city centre, just before england's toughest restrictions took hold across the county. i think i'm disappointed to see those scenes, and what we really need to do is for everybody to play their part in bringing this virus down, and that extends to everybody in our communities, whether young or old. and further north, in mansfield, we found ray, just back from a trip over the border. the bookies is open, because i like a little bet on the old horses... because everything — the bookies are shut here. so you've just crossed into derbyshire... into a new border, yes. that's breaking the rules. why ain't i allowed to do that? you're not supposed to cross... they didn't tell me that, they didn't tell me that. and the pubs are open over there. have you had a pint? i have had a pint. so, do you think the rules are not clear? well, the rules are clear,

but they're there for breaking. but some are staying in and the town centre's quiet. it's not lockdown. it's just three, isn't it? so, it's trying to tell the customers to come into the marketplace, get them back down here, because they've got it in their mind that it's actually locked down, but it's not. do you think it's panicking people? panicking? it's crazy. i would like to understand why i can go and have my hair done — which i have this morning, although it looks a mess — but i can't have my nails done. and the people who rely on that income are feeling short—changed. there's no evidence to say that there's any transmission of any covid in any salons, so i don't understand why they picked on us. these restrictions are mostly in place for a month initially, but what then? could they be relaxed or will they potentially have to be tightened further? and what if life has to carry on like this — what impact could that have? connie's feeling it after months of shielding in west yorkshire, where tier three will

extend from monday. social isolation is... you know, it's very damaging. it's very... it's wearing, it's tiring, it's stressful. back in north nottinghamshire, some want to see more rules. national lockdown. just lock down everything at the minute, just basically clear the virus up. there's no point in closing down cornwall if they're fine there, but, overall, i don't know, i think we need a circuit breaker. with the virus still spreading, the patchwork of rules will roll out further, constraining more communities, more families and more lives. danjohnson, bbc news, mansfield. the latest government figures on coronavirus show there were 274 deaths reported — that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—i9 test. it means on average in the past week, 237 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths

so far across the uk to 46,229. 0ur health editor hugh pym is with me now. just how serious is the situation? well, we should be clear that the crowd who number, anything above one, shows the virus is spreading, anything below one is declining. the range has come down a bit and officials say that could reflect measures already taken but anything above and what word izmir means it's still increasing and we've been told by officials it's not a good place to be. they expect cases, hospital admissions and sadly desk to carry on rising. it's emerged that some senior officials think a two week circuit breaker which was being proposed wouldn't be enough now and it needs something longer and more extensive, but of course officials advise, ministers decide. they have to work out what's best for society asa to work out what's best for society as a whole, people's well—being, and the economy as well as any further restrictions. but i'm told some in whitehall, ministers, are getting

increasingly concerned about what the data is saying. many thanks, our health editor, hugh pym there. 0ur deputy political editor vicki young is at westminster. the government has strongly opposed a national lockdown. are there signs that it's wavering? there is no doubt that pressure is really growing on the prime minister. his approach looking increasingly isolated, really, if you look at what's happening elsewhere in europe, germany, france, belgium, closer to elsewhere in europe, germany, france, belgium, closerto home, wales and northern ireland, introducing measures much closer to the lockdown in spring. so far in england they are sticking to this tiered approach. i think the problem is the virus is spreading very quickly and that system is responding rather slowly. it's proving pretty cumbersome. there are some who think even the restrictions in that tightest tier three are simply not going to be enough. i'm told no final decisions have been made, but there is no doubt over the weekend the government will be

looking very closely at all of the data. one government source saying tonight that the country has reached a crunch point. ministers have said they'll do everything they can to avoid a national lockdown in england, but they have never ruled it out. the prime minister has some very difficult decisions to make and time is not on his side. vicki young, thank you. a major earthquake has struck off the coast of turkey, north of the greek island of samos. at least 19 people are dead and more than 700 were injured when buildings collapsed in the turkish city of izmir and the quake was felt from athens to istanbul, from where 0rla guerin reports. amateur video captured the awful power of the quake. this multi—storey building disintegrated into dust. 0n the streets of izmir, there was fear and panic. shouting i saw people crying, trying to reach

out to their loved ones. everyone was shocked and it was a very chaotic moment. about 20 buildings were brought down. the quake was felt as far away as istanbul and athens. turkey is crisscrossed by active fault lines, the danger always lying beneath. rescuers picked their way carefully through the rubble. here, finding a survivor and gently cradling his head. the man was brought out alive, like dozens of others. and, for some, emotional reunions. social distancing swept away by the chaos and the relief. izmir bore the brunt of this earthquake that two teenagers died in the greek islands. and in the midst of loss, there's been a rare display

of solidarity between two nations that are deeply divided. turkey's president, recep tayyip erdogan, thanked greece for offering its help and said turkey was standing with its neighbour in difficult times. this is a glimpse of one mother's terror today. she sprints to the next room for her only child, an 18—month—old, asleep in his cot. she gets him away to safety. but danger also came surging from the aegean sea, sea levels rising because of a mini tsunami will stop there have been about 100 after—shocks. tonight, the rescue

effort is continuing, searching for life under layers of crushed concrete. in turkey there is grief and shock and the gnawing fear of when the next big one is coming. all the gear on, bbc news, istanbul. injust four days' time, america goes to the polls. tens of millions have already voted, partly because of the pandemic which has had a huge impact on the country. many see the vote on november 3rd as a referendum on donald trump's handling of the crisis. the us has the highest number of recorded cases in the world — topping nine million this evening — with 229,000 deaths. the state of arizona is one of those hardest hit, and infections are on the rise. clive myrie has visited one of the state's worst affected communities — the navajo nation — where the death rate is the highest in the us.

in our culture, as a navajo, as a native american, it's something we're not even supposed to do, to deal with death. but dealing with death is michael begay‘s calling, in the worst corner of the worst country for covid—19. with covid patients, we normally don't embalm. we usually just keep them in the body bag. an undertaker, he prepares bodies for burial on the navajo lands of northern arizona.

the numbers are going up again, so we are preparing for another influx of bodies. living in the largest of the native american territories, the navajo have suffered more coronavirus deaths per head of population than any of the 50 states of the union — many hundreds of people. there was that point when i went into our storage unit and ijust saw all those bodies laying there. and i knew two of them. it was a hard time for me, you know, knowing that those people are laying there, people that i've known, and they're here because of covid. it was heartbreaking. a good friend of mine, his son died of covid, and i've known him since he was a little boy.

and i got the phone call, i was talking to him on the phone, and ijust told him, isaid, "i can't imagine what you're going through." you know, i've known him since i was a child, and we both cried on the phone together. americans say their land is blessed by god. now, it's cursed — by covid—19. and there's seemingly no clear strategy to end its hold on the land. navajo nation is one of the poorest parts of america and mask mandates and curfews were introduced early in the pandemic, but the virus had already taken hold and with few health care facilities, many were left at covid's mercy. but that's the american story — that despite its untold riches, millions always struggle.

this is tent city in phoenix — thousands homeless, some losing theirjobs due to the pandemic, and now losing their lives. this pandemic is instant death. meet james wright. he's 62. people dying here in the camp? yeah. yeah, every day. pity would be no more if we didn't make somebody poor. social distancing is tough in tent city. # macho, macho man...# it's tough here, too, at this trump rally. but why? thank you, thank you, what a crowd! we scrupulously kept our distance and wore masks at this gathering in tucson.

but in this deeply polarised country, wearing or not wearing a face covering has become a political statement. this is chris and his family. so, did you enjoy the atmosphere at the rally yesterday? we did. but the pandemic is still out there. that didn't worry you, being with all those people yesterday? no. it didn't bother me one bit. if donald trump said everyone should wear a mask, he's following the science, you would do it? reluctantly, iwould, probably. do you think it's un—american to be forced to wear a mask? i do. i think it's un—american to force anybody to do something that there's no medical reason, if you're not sick. there has been a conflict in all of us during this time, and perhaps more so here in the land of the free —

individualism versus collective responsibility. it's part of our culture to take care of one another. it's always the natives that are wearing masks. and you see that, and a lot of non—natives are not that diligent, but we, as a people, are. so, this is really the start of covid. they opened this area here. in navajo nation, they had to build a new cemetery to take all the dead. and this is one of your close friends? yeah. covid is why he's laying here. ijust think it shouldn't have happened. the presidential election is above all a referendum on donald trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. whoever wins must guide this country out of the darkness to a better shore reachable from here. clive myrie, bbc news, in navajo nation, northern arizona.

0ur north america editorjon sopel joins me now from washington. jon, covid really is going to be a crucial issue next week? much as donald trump would like it not to be. he keeps saying covid, covid, covid, we are turning a corner, things are getting better, we won't hear anything about it from the 4th we won't hear anything about it from the 11th of november because people will talk about other issues. but the fact of the matter is he is leading —— his leading white house doctor said there is a surge in cases, new infections at record levels, 91,000 yesterday, deaths are rising and so are the number of people being admitted to hospital. there seems to be a gap between what donald trump and his doctors are saying, what science is saying and what is politicians are saying and so coronavirus, far from what is politicians are saying and so coronavirus, farfrom being in the rear—view mirror, is ever present and also he would love to be talking about the economy.

yesterday, record growth figures which he would like to be saluting but today, the dowjones, the stock market, had its worst week since march. those are not the numbers that he would have hoped for and so instead of being able to talk about the economy surging, it is again about coronavirus and what is happening to american jobs. this about coronavirus and what is happening to americanjobs. this is not what he would have scripted for the final weekend of the campaign. thank you. the bbc has learned the government is giving a green light toa government is giving a green light to a new power station. hinkley point in somerset is in year four of a nine—year build. it was meant to be the first of a new fleet of reactors, signalling a new nuclear age. the plan has always been to make a low carbon copy of it right here — sizewell in suffolk. three other nuclear projects have collapsed, so if the government's still committed to new nuclear, which it insists it is, this

is really the only game in town. the government will outline plans next month the uk to get to a net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and had told the bbc they remain committed to new nuclear in order to hit that target. 0ur committed to new nuclear in order to hit that target. our business editor simonjack has this report. this is what new nuclear power looks like — construction on an epic scale. hinkley point in somerset is in year four of a nine—year build. it was meant to be the first of a new fleet of reactors, signalling a new nuclear age. the plan has always been to make a low carbon copy of it right here — sizewell in suffolk. three other nuclear projects have collapsed, so if the government's still committed to new nuclear, which it insists it is, this is really the only game in town. making another will be cheaper, faster, while supporting and creating thousands of high—skilled jobs, according to the people who want to build it. sizewell b just there, and presumably this is where sizewell c will sit? yeah, that's right.

so, nuclear design takes a long time to get approved for each individual country, but the great news is that we've got a design approved of hinkley and we're building it and at hinkley, you can see replication, the copy effect in action. that's what we want to bring to sizewell, we want to bring the known design and that great experience, so that sizewell starts where unit two of hinkley stops. more productive, great uk content and really building skills. this spot right here is where reactor number two of sizewell c will go. it'll take around ten years to build and cost the best part of £20 billion. there are cheaper ways of making electricity and, arguably, there are greener ways, but in the future, we're going to need gigantic amounts of low carbon electricity and once they're up and running, that's what nuclear gives you. just a few miles up the coast, you can find one big reason why nuclear is controversial. if you head out to sea, 30 miles offshore from lowestoft, wind farms like this have been a game—changer. the price of electricity produced by these turbines has fallen by over 70% in the last ten years. a single blade on there is bigger

than a football pitch and the tips might not look like it, but are moving at more than 200 miles an hour. a single rotation can power a home for two days, and as these turbines have become bigger, so they've become more efficient and the cost has come down, making this one of the greenest and cheapest ways of making electricity. the government wants to see tens of thousands of new and bigger turbines around the coast of the uk, enough to power every home. it can be done, says the operator here, but it's a formidable target. there has to be a colossal investment into the grid to get it ready. what you can't do, and we can't afford to do as a country, is build the wind farms, electrify all the cars and electrify all the heating and then find you can't plug it into the system. wind power is cheaper than nuclear but the wind doesn't always blow, which is why blunt comparisons with nuclear are unhelpful, according to energy experts. simply, an either/or discussion is quite a crude way of trying

to work out how to get over the next 30 years from here to there. nobody thinks that nuclear is going to solve all the problems, but then it's quite hard to work out how offshore wind could solve all the problems and, indeed, neither of them claim that to be the case. unions say there is compelling industrial logic to transfer jobs, skills and new opportunities from somerset to suffolk. local reaction is divided between jobs and disruption, but the government insists new nuclear will be part of a low—carbon mix, which is why sizewell c looks increasingly likely to get a green light to be part of a green energy future. simon jack, bbc news. tens of thousands of people have demonstrated across poland to protest against a court ruling banning almost all abortions. they defied government orders to march in the capital warsaw in nine straight days of protests, with anger focused on the governing right—wing law and justice party, whose lawmakers asked the court

to make the decision. the ruling bans abortion in all cases except for rape, incest and where the mother's life is in danger. france's interior minister has warned that more militant attacks are likely and said the country was at war with islamist ideology. his comments follow the fatal stabbing of three people in a knife attack at a church in nice. a memorial has been set up outside the basilica, with flowers and candles lit for the victims. it's the second such attack in france in two weeks, and president macron has held an emergency meeting with senior ministers. nick beake reports. at the notre dame basilica, they mourned the murdered — a place of worship that became the site of killing. the last words of mother of three simone barreto silva were, "tell my children i love them." she'd moved to france from brazil 30 years ago.

here, she's filmed taking a cookery course, enthusing about the secrets of southern french cuisine. a friend, miriam, said she would be hugely missed. translation: i want to remember her smile. what characterised simone was her smile. that's what she'll leave to her children and to all the people of nice. vincent loques was the churchwarden. he dedicated his life to keeping the place safe. but he and the other victims were defenceless, yesterday morning. this was the moment police confronted their attacker. he's been named as 21—year—old tunisian brahim al—aouissaoui. at the family home in tunisia, relatives told the bbc they believed he was looking for work in france. his mother said he had previously struggled with drink and drugs. translation: his answer was he was

quite when god wanted him to. then nearly two and a half years ago, he began to pray. he would leave home to go to work and back. he stopped using drugs. france is once again in lockdown and once again in grief. this is the third terror attack in barely a month. the country is fighting an invisible virus and today the government said it is a war to another enemy, is a islamist i liotta g. her —— ideology. translation: this terrorist attack is an affront to our faith and religion. i have asked the muslims of france to cancel all celebrations marking the prophet's birthday today and to mourn the victims. but in lebanon today, anti—french protests. elsewhere also, including bangladesh, where there is still fury over president—macro and's defence of the right to publish

cartoons of the prophet muhammad. backin cartoons of the prophet muhammad. back in france, no explanation for this latest attack, just a profound sadness that has become all too familiar. nick beake, bbc news, paris. the former england and manchester united player nobby stiles has died aged 78, after a long battle with illness. stiles played every minute of england's victorious 1966 world cup campaign. and he would go on to win a european cup with his boyhood club, manchester united, two years later. our sports correspondent andy swiss has been looking back at a remarkable career. he was one of sport's more unlikely heroes — the world cup winner with the toothless grin and the dancing feet. commentator: i have never seen nobby stiles like this before. thatjig of delight ensured nobby stiles' place in footballing folklore. it's nice because people remember you for it. and they say, "oh, yeah, i remember yourjig," and they pass it onto their children and whatever.