this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the british government considers plans for a month—long national lockdown across england — in the hope that measures could be eased before christmas. a europe—wide surge in coronavirus cases has spurred a wave of tighter restrictions — with belgium the latest to announce a six—week national lockdown. rescue teams search through the rubble for survivors after a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece. at least 27 people are confirmed dead. just three days to go — donald trump and joe biden campaign in the american midwest — where polls suggest several states could go either way.

hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world — and stay with us for the latest news and analysis from here and across the globe. the uk prime minister boris johnson is considering bringing in a month—long national lockdown for england. documents seen by the bbc suggest that unless further restrictions are introduced, there could be far more coronavirus deaths in britain than during the first wave. a new "stay at home" order could be announced on monday, but schools, colleges and universities would stay open. meanwhile, the united states has set a new record for the highest single day total of new covid cases of any country since the global pandemic began. figures from johns hopkins university show more than 99,000 new cases reported on friday. that has seen the total number of cases in the us surpass the nine million mark.

in the rest of europe, the who reported total cases across the continent have gone over the 10 million mark. the second wave in europe has seen belgium, france and germany move to reinstate full national lockdowns. paul hawkins reports. to stay at home, protect our nhs and save lives. remember back in the spring? "stay at home" was the message and borisjohnson‘s now understood to be considering bringing in that instruction for england again. however, it wouldn't be the same overall. this time, schools, colleges and universities would stay open. official government documents seen by the bbc suggest the country is on course for a significantly higher death toll in the second wave of covid than the first, unless there are further restrictions. that as cases continue to rise. because action wasn't taken earlier when it should have been, we are now

in a harder place and the tier 3 approach just levels us off at a bad place. and the rest of the country's coming up to that bad place. it is the recognition of that scenario that is leading to what has been discussed today. downing street's understood to be looking at a month—long form of lockdown, in the hope restrictions could be eased in time for christmas. we've saying and we have been saying it for about three or four weeks that it's really important the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible, because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. ministers have been defending tiered regional restrictions targeting measures in the worst affected areas, labour has called for a short lockdown for england to get the virus under control. unfortunately the government's kind of dithering on this means we have missed the half term holiday and it

sounds like it is going to be longer thanit sounds like it is going to be longer than it would otherwise have been. last night government sources said that the country was at the crunch point, although no final decisions have been made. but it seems increasingly likely that the prime minister could take the national action that he was so desperate to avoid. 0ur political correspondent helen catt is in downing street. many of the front—pages of the newspapers have also had word of a potential national lockdown, when is downing street going to confirm its plans? well, as you heard there from jessica there is no decision has been taken, not even the whole of cabinet have been briefed on this. but the fact this is even being considered by downing street does mark a significant shift. if you think about everything that's happened since england started to come out of lockdown over the summer, all the measures that have been place like the rule of six and

the 10pm curfew and the regional system of varying levels of restrictions, those we were told we re restrictions, those we were told were all being put in place to avoid the need for a second national lockdown and borisjohnson has been clear that that was not something he wa nted clear that that was not something he wanted to do, he didn't think it was going to be the right solution and concerns about the damage to the economy and the damage to people's mental health. when labour put the idea of a short circuit break, the government said no, that was not the right thing to do, borisjohnson described it as turning out the lights. so the fact it is being considered marks a significant shift. what has caused that shift? it seems it is these documents that have been circumstance lamented in the —— circumstance lated circulated in the last few days. borisjohnson and the chancellor saw these and

discussed them on friday. the documents, there are two sets. 0ne looks at the likely path of the disease and how it is likely to spread. it is thought the modelling looks worse than the first wave and the reasonable worst case scenario the reasonable worst case scenario the government was working on and the government was working on and the oth document warns about the health service capacity and warn it is health service wouldn't be able to a cce pt is health service wouldn't be able to accept more patients by christmas, even if they cancelled all the nonurgent procedures. let's get more on this now with professor david heymann, from the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine. do you think a national lockdown is needed? well what we are seeing now is the accumulation of cases that have occurred since the last

lockdown and many countries didn't have an appropriate exit strategy when they left that lockdown. we are dealing with outbreaks when they occurred, trying to find out where transmission was occurring and locking those sites down earlier, as has been done in countries in asia. so we have an assume lacing of cases that —— accumulation of cases that is causing stress on the health service. but the decision is difficult, on the one side inequalities will be increasing, at the same time mental health of young children is important and also important is the mortality that will occui’. important is the mortality that will occur. these decisions can't be made overnight. i'm not privy to all the information going to sage, but it is a difficult decision to make. the confusion is not helpful to behaviour and for people trying to plan their lives and to everyone getting on top of the virus. the

arguments made against a lockdown, why would they have changed with this data? i can't tell you for sure, but i think it's trying to protect the nhs as well as to save lives. but what we often forget is that people have the power to deal with this pandemic themselves. if they understand the messages being provided be i by the government and if they follow those. that is what is happening in many countries especially where asian countries where people do try to protect others and themselves. whether that is occurring in the uk, i can't say. but congregations of young people in social environments are not conducive to decreasing transmission. on the numbers that the bbc seems to have seen, at the height of the pandemic in the spring, deaths reached more than a thousand a day and if no changes we re thousand a day and if no changes were introduced now, deaths could

reach more than 4,000 a day, according to one of the models, that is obviously a vast number, a vast increase, is it plausible the numbers have come as a surprise, given that sage recommended at the end of september a lockdown? well, you know, models arejust end of september a lockdown? well, you know, models are just that, they're estimates based on best possible information that people have today. they always present a worst and best case scenario. the worst and best case scenario. the worst case scenario worst and best case scenario. the worst case scenario what is the government must make their planning on and they're using these to see what really they will be doing. when you talk about what other countries have done, we look at the east, the eastern countries, can we trust the chinese numbers for a start and are there lessons that governments in europe and the uk should be learning from? i can't tell you whether we

can trust the chinese figures or not. but what we can see the countries in asia such as japan, south korea, sing appear, vietnam, hong kong and taiwan all those areas by the end of january were detecting and responding to outbreaks and keeping transmission low and they have continued with that. and they have continued with that. and they have traced back from cases to find where transmission is occurring and then shut those areas and tried to rectify the situation and then open them up again cautiously. that is a good approach. countries in europe we re good approach. countries in europe were behinds in they didn't detect the early cases and now they're trying to catch up and it is a very difficultjob to do so. trying to catch up and it is a very difficult job to do so. would you be critical or supportive of the western approach? because you know, the results when you look at the john hopkins data of total death

rates and look at somewhere like taiwan, which is a small island, but it has 200 days without a transmitted case. the outcomes here are starkly different and it feels to many as though european governments and the us are playing catch up consta ntesly? governments and the us are playing catch up constantesly? -- co nsta ntly. catch up constantesly? -- constantly. yes and they didn't respond early and now they're trying to catch up and it is difficult. it is especially difficult, because during the lockdown in the spring, there were not a lot of plans made to exit safely and keep transmission low and transmission has increased and now we finds ourselves in the situation that we don't want to be, protecting hospitals and trying to save the lives, while at the same time balancing that between the inequalities that will be increasing, because of the lockdowns that are occurring. thank you.

let's speak to dr mike tildesley from the university of warwick. he's an expert in the modelling of infectious diseases and sits on one of sage sub committees. do you think there should be a national lockdown now for a month? well, i think it is clear looking at the day that that unfortunately —— data, that cases are rising and we need to get away from the fact that incidence in certain parts is lower than others, but the r number is greater than i every where, even in those regions that have gone into tier 3. so the danger with this of course is if we wait then what we are going to see over if next couple of months is most parts progressing into higher tiers. the only way to counter act that is to have a national strategy. i think it needs to be fixed term. because one of the difficulties is of course, as was

talked about, there are other implications of that. we no there is economic damage and damage the people's well being and mental health. but a short, maybe three to four week strategy to bring incidence down, allow time or the test and trace to get to where it needs to be and that will enable us to relax a bit over the winter, over the christmas period and protect the nhs ata the christmas period and protect the nhs at a time when it is very vulnerable. will it be safe to keep schools and universities open during this period? i think it is difficult. i've always said we should keep children in school where possible. i think the long—term damage to children's education, that is, that can be significant. the reason we were pushing for a circuit breaker over half term was to try to minimise the impact on schools. if children stay in school that will increase the r number, but if we can

be stringent every where else, hopefully we can get it below i. for universities, the problem is stu d e nts universities, the problem is students are on campus and if we we re students are on campus and if we were to close universities, you have to send them home and there is a risk there. so the only thing we do is try to minimise risks on campus and get out the message that stu d e nts and get out the message that students need to keep seeking tests and isolate ing. should children in classrooms be wearing masks? as scotla nd classrooms be wearing masks? as scotland has indicated that the older teenagers should wear masks? yes this is a difficult one. i will say from the point of view of learning i have been against the idea of masks in classrooms, particularly maybe children that are more shy or are struggling, a mask may prevents them from engaging with the class. i would be reluctant to bring that measure in, particularly

at primary school for those reasons. it may bring the risk down a bit. but i hope with the measures we have in place with the bubbling and these things in schools, hopefully we can minimise the risk. in terms of time limits a lockdown, we haven't had anything confirmed, what happens at the end of that, that is when the numbers may still be going up of hospitalisation and mortality given the time lag. will it be plausible to lift restrictions? you're right, this is always the criticism of a circuit breaker and of course when you pull the plug, cases start to go up you pull the plug, cases start to go up again. so it is not a magic bullet, or a way out of this, but it isa bullet, or a way out of this, but it is a measure you could consider essentially to buy yourself time. we are already seeing evidence in the north of england that hospitals are coming under threat in terms of getting to reaching capacity. it enables us to bring that down. but

we need to think about what we do beyond that and we need to get test and trace working and to get to the level so we can rapidly identify co nta cteds level so we can rapidly identify contacteds and we need of —— contacts and we need the isolation measures to work. we need to discuss an exit strategy. the danger is as you say, cases go up again and in two two three months time we are having this conversation again. just looking at the data that we have seen, suggestions that death tolls could reach more than 4,000 a day, at the height of the pandemic in the spring it was about a thousand a day. is that a realistic number that looms if restrictions are not imposed? you have to remember that with this realistic worst case scenario, it was never a prediction. the scenarios are put in place to guide the government to make sure

they're prepared for the worst case. of course there is a concern, because what we seeing exceeds that worst case scenario. because what we seeing exceeds that worst case scenario. it is difficult to put an exact number on what we might expect to see in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but the numbers are going up and this is the concern, if we don't act, whether it exceed s the number is difficult to tell. but we will see hospitalisation and deaths go up in a concerning way. if the government had imposed a lockdown, a full national lockdown earlier in the autumn, how many lives could plausibly have been saved, is it possible to work that out? the weekly death toll has been rising already. yes, it is very hard and i a lwa ys already. yes, it is very hard and i always try and veer from talking about how many lives might have been saved. it is, because of course, it is not, as i said, it is not an exit strategy, it is not you do the

lockdown and save everyone's life. the important thing with control is you need to act as quickly as possible, a controlled strategy for a disease has maximum effect if you put it in place as soon as possible and it ills most effective in the parts where incidence is lower. so in the shorter term it does protect the nhs and save lives, but of course what you need to do is be responsive and once you lift strategies you need to put other measures in place to keep it down. when you said you had pushed for a lockdown earlier, what was the response from government to that? did you get one? i mean of course you need to remember, i don't sit on sage, i'm on the scientific group for modelling, we put in our work that gets considered at sage and i accept the government, as david hayman discussed, the government

have things they need to consider when putting in a policy and they need to consider people's well being and economic aspects and covid. there are all these things that need to be weighed up when coming to making a decisions. i'm several stems from directly communication —— steps from directly communicating with policy. thank you. rescue teams in the turkish city of izmir have spent the night digging through concrete blocks looking for survivors of the earthquake that struck in the aegean on friday. 27 people have now been confirmed dead, and at least 800 were injured. the quake also struck the greek island of samos, where two teenagers were killed. 0rla guerin reports. amateur video captured the awful power of the quake. this multi—storey building disintegrated into dust.

0n the streets of izmir, there was fear and panic. i saw people crying, trying to reach out to their loved ones. everyone was shocked and it was a very chaotic moment. about 20 buildings were brought down. the quake was felt as far away as istanbul and athens. turkey is crisscrossed by active fault lines. the danger always lying beneath. rescuers picked their way carefully through the rubble. here, finding a survivor and gently cradling his head. the man was brought out alive, like dozens of others. and for some emotional reunions, social distancing swept away by the

chaos and the relief. izmir bore the brunt of this earthquake but two teenagers died in the greek islands. and in the midst of loss, there has been a rare display of solidarity between two nations that are deeply divided. turk‘s president, recep tayyip erdogan, thanked greece for offering its help and said turkey was standing with its neighbour in difficult times. this is a glimpse of one mother's terror today. she sprints to the next room for her only child, an 18—month—old, asleep in his cot. she gets him away to safety. but danger also came surging from the aegean. sea levels rising because of a mini tsunami, which there has been 100 after—shocks.

the rescue effort is continuing, searching for life. in turkey, there is grief and shock and the gnawing fear of when the next big one is coming. 0rla guerin, bbc news, istanbul. french media are reporting that another man has been detained for questioning in connection with thursday's deadly knife attack at a church in nice, which killed three people. he is the third person to be held in relation to the incident. the attacker — a 21—year—old tunisian man — was shot and injured by police following the assault, which is being treated as an act of islamist terror. security has been tightened across france. president donald trump and his democratic rivaljoe biden have been campaigning in the american mid—west, which is home to some of the most closely contested states in the us election. with just three days to go,

both candidates are trying to gain support in a last ditch effort to win over undecided voters. 0ur north america correspondent peter bowes reports. the final weekend. for donald trump, a final sprint around the country, as he tried to secure a second term in the white house. the president is focusing on the battle ground states that could decide the election. but, at a stop in minnesota, thousands of mr trump's supporters were prevented from going to a planned rally in the city of rochester, when state officials limited the size of the crowd because of covid—i9. only 250 people were allowed to attend. the president protested, and blamed local democrats. they thought he would cancel — a word they are very familiar with. cancel. cancel culture. but i said no way, i will never abandon the people of minnesota. i will come up. during his speech, the president

repeated his view that america was rounding the turn on the pandemic, even though the number of new cases has again reached a record high for a single day, more than 90,000. mrtrump mr trump accused doctors of trying to profit from the virus. our doctors get more money if somebody died in covid. you know that right? so they say, sorry, everybody dies of covid, but in germany and other places, if you have a heart attack, you catch covid, they say you died of cancer, you died of heart attack. with us, when in doubt, choose covid. joe biden seized on these comments. the president accuses the medical profession of making up covid deaths so they make more

money. doctors and nurses go to work to save lives every day, they do their job. to save lives every day, they do theirjob. donald to save lives every day, they do their job. donald trump's to save lives every day, they do theirjob. donald trump's should stop attacking them and do hisjob. with tensions running high, businesses in some us cities have begun to board up their premises, in case the election leads to civil unrest. in los angeles, early voting has been taking place at the dodgers' stadium, days after the team won baseball's world series. voting should be fun, and this is fun. and so that's why i'm here. and the dodgers won the world series. and i am super stressed out about the election, and i could use a little fun. surreal scenes as america braces for an election day like no other. reuters is reporting the greek prime minister has announced a partial shut down for a month in greece,

announcing restaurants, bar and gyms will close, effective november 3rd. more online about the coronavirus restrictions. the uk government is close to giving the green light to a new nuclear power station in sizewell, which is in suffolk. officials say the government "remains committed to new nuclear" energy, and talks with contractor edf have intensified in recent weeks, after the collapse of other projects in anglesey and cumbria. our business editor simon jack has more. this is what new nuclear power looks like. construction on an epic scale. hinkley point in somerset is in year 4 of a nine—year build. it was meant to be the first of a new fleet of reactors, signalling a new nuclear age. the plan has always been to make a low carbon copy of it right here — sizewell in suffolk. three other nuclear projects have collapsed so if the government's still committed to new nuclear,

which it insists it is, this is really the only game in town. making another will be cheaper, faster, while supporting and creating thousands of high—skilled jobs, according to the people who want to build it. sizewell b just there, and presumably this is where sizewell c will sit? yeah, that's right. so, nuclear design takes a long time to get approval for each individual country, but the great news is, we've got a design approved for hinkley and we're building it, and at hinkley you can see replication, the copy effect in action, and that's what we want to bring to sizewell. we want to bring the known design and that great experience so that sizewell starts where unit two of hinkley stops. more productive, great uk content and really building skills. this spot right here is where reactor number two of sizewell c will go. it'll take around ten years to build and cost the best part of £20 billion. there are cheaper ways of making electricity and arguably, there are greener ways, but in the future we're going to need gigantic amounts of low carbon electricity and once they're up and running, that's what nuclear gives you.

just a few miles up the coast, you can find one big reason why nuclear is controversial. if you head out to sea, 30 miles offshore from lowestoft, wind farms like this have been a game changer. the price of electricity produced by these turbines has fallen by over 70% in the last ten years. a single blade on there is bigger than a football pitch and the tips might not look like it but are moving at more than 200 miles an hour. a single rotation can power a home for two days and as these turbines have become bigger so they've become more efficient and the cost has come down, making this one of the greenest and cheapest ways of making electricity. the government wants to see tens of thousands of new and bigger turbines around the coast of the uk, enough to power every home. it can be done, says the operator here, but it's an formidable target. there has to be a colossal investment into the grid to get it ready. what you can't do and they can't afford to do as a country is build the wind farms, electrify all the cars and electrify

all the heating and then find you can't plug it into the system. wind power is cheaper than nuclear but the wind doesn't always blow which is why blunt comparisons with nuclear are unhelpful, according to energy experts. simply an either/or discussion is quite a crude way of trying to work out how to get over the next 30 years from here to there. nobody thinks that nuclear is going to solve all the problems but then it's quite hard to work out how offshore wind can solve all the problems and indeed, neither of them claim that to be the case. unions say there is compelling industrial logic to transfer jobs, skills and new opportunities from somerset to suffolk. local reaction is divided between jobs and disruption but the government insists new nuclear will be part of a low carbon mix which is why sizewell c looks increasingly likely to get a green light to be part of a green energy future. simon jack, bbc news.

now it's time for a look at the weather. we are not allowed to trick or treat, well not too much. what is it going to be like. at the moment it is pretty windy. here are some of the wind gusts in the last hour p up to 50 in scotland. the strong winds are with us. some intense bursts of rain reaching east anglia and the south—east this afternoon. but sunshine will come out this afternoon in england and wales. western scotland and northern ireland stick to the cloud with further rain. and the strongest winds touching 80mph. there could be some travel disruption and some minor flooding some travel disruption and some minorflooding from some travel disruption and some minor flooding from the rain. some travel disruption and some minorflooding from the rain. there is more rain back through the night as we go into tomorrow morning and another mild night as well. tomorrow, it is another windy day.

not as windy as