hello, and welcome to the programme that brings together some of the uk's leading commentators and foreign correspondents whose stories are published back home, dateline london. this week, is coronavirus extinguishing not only lives and jobs but also our appetite for polarised populist politics? within days, if the polls are right, we could see the end of the extraordinary trump era. here in the uk, borisjohnson‘s conservative party is 5 points behind in one poll and jeremy corbyn, labour's former leader has been suspended from the party. amidst a crisis do we crave the conventional politics and duller virtues of competance and compassion rather than the swagger and promise of the populist? after the 2008 financial crisis,

angela merkel in germany survived whilst other incumbent governments fell. is that a template for how politics will settle after covid joining me this week is ned temko of the christian science monitor, and coburn, presenter of the bbc‘s politics live. lets begin with the seismic event of this week. the us election is this tuesday november 3rd. but has much of it already happened? over 80 million people have already voted. more have already cast their ballot in texas than did overall in 2016

and we still have polling day to come. if there is a very high turnout what does that mean? but first, the big question — has covid fundamentally shifted the basis for everyone‘s political choices? jeffrey kofman, i am going to start with you on that, if i may. do you think that pete the way people are thinking about who to vote for now is simply not about which grand vision they like that who they think is going to get the immediatejob done? i don't think you can separate this questions. i think clearly for five years we have talked about on this programme when trump would hit that tipping point when the american people would stop believing of accepting what he says, when that teflon presidency would be seen for what it is and i think inaudible... trump insisting even this week the us is turning a corner when there is simply no evidence, the evidence is that things are getting worse so i think there were a number of factors involved. one, people are voting early because of the pandemic, because of social distancing. two,

there is a huge amount of engagement. people are very, very polarised, obviously, on trump and they want to make sure their vote counts. they have heard him talk about trying challenging votes and there are all sorts of talk about making it difficult for people so i think it's fair to say that people are voting for two reasons. they wa nt to are voting for two reasons. they want to voice their their displeasure with trump although i suppose if that is the case and they wa nt to suppose if that is the case and they want to make sure their vote is done ina want to make sure their vote is done in a safer way as possible. and, ned temko, we cannot predict with any certainty he was going to win bass with polling in the past but what is your certainty on whether there is a move away from populist leaders? as for the united states, i think it is remembered noting that polls, although they have got a very bad

image after 2016 were in fact very accurate on a national level and the polling shortcomings were these battle ground states. certainly all the polling and the stability of biden‘s leads, particularly in these key states, makes it look good for biden and kamala harris. the other key indicator, by the way, and jeffrey alluded to it, is that much of the republican focus has been on trying to depress the vote, and if that doesn't work, to challenge votes once they have been passed, so i think all of the kind of litmus indications, without making a prediction, i looking betterfor biden than trump. now, briefly, your other question, i do agree with your point. i think we can't predict the long—term political consequences any more than we can predict the course of covid, obviously, but notjust... the trends in the united states but

recent election results, particularly in new zealand, jacinda arden landslide victory for her labour party, suggests that people do want confidence and, as you said, i think this is often understated, they want compassion in leaders too and the extremists on the left and right aren't great at compassion. the spin, much talk of the trump, borisjohnson sort of link, similarity in sales. if there is a switch at the top and you have met the administration in the white house, how will that change the fundamental relationship between the uk in the us? it may not fundamentally change it in a sense that there will be a relationship but there is no doubt that the boris johnson administration in the uk has started to pivot, at least behind—the—scenes, with a potential biden administration. as you say, we can't say with any certainty what will happen there. they have a

couple of things that i will say. we know already that the democrats don't like brexit and brexit was the fundamental issue for boris johnson at the last election and those negotiations are still ongoing. we have heard rhetoric from nancy pelosi about the fact that they are extremely worried about anything that might threaten the northern ireland peace process, the good friday agreement and a protocol. there is another reason for their not been quite as much diplomatic engagement as you might have expected with an opposition, as we would because call it with the uk, and that is because of sensitivities around a legit russian interference in the 2016 election. so all of that diplomatic work that would have been going on, and if you put covid in the mix too, hasn't been quite at the mix too, hasn't been quite at the forefront you might have expected with the set of an election in us. now, as you have said, much has been made of the sort of personal link between donald trump and borisjohnson

personal link between donald trump and boris johnson and the fact that many people think they campaign in a similar style, it is all about the personality, the big campaign motto is, and it is interesting actually, this idea populist air leadership being under threat by covid because that sort of pandemic doesn't work that sort of pandemic doesn't work that well in a pandemic because you can't campaign against covid so the idea of make america great again, get brexit done, there isn't really an equivalent when it comes to dealing with her pandemic. yes. it didn't stop the government having their slogans but people obviously wa nted their slogans but people obviously wanted to follow the detailed tracking of it in to see that all political leaders are following the detail in that sense. jeff kofman, the one big detail of course conscious of the change in the white house is whether populist leaders globally are, will, i dunno, somehow look and feel different. so if trump goes, does it change the perception of how boris johnson goes, does it change the perception of how borisjohnson is received in the uk? how bolsonaro is received,

as others around the world? what happens in the us does have a profound influence, doesn't it? of course it does. i think there were a number of factors can to consider here. one is i want to believe your earliest question that the kind of extremes earliest question that the kind of extre m es of earliest question that the kind of extremes of populism, the kind of anti—scientific relativity, dismissal of climate change will go with a trump defeat if that is what we see on tuesday night but there area number of we see on tuesday night but there are a number of things that also need to be reined in and social media is one of them. we are in a very different world than we were eight years ago. facebook and twitter claim that they are controlling things but they are not, they really are, it is open season for anyone to say anything and until we figure out how to have freedom of speech without freedom of false information, we still have a problem with this kind of fake news that is populating and polluting so much of

social media. it's misinforming people and it's inciting people so simply changing leaders is not going to be enough. we have to wrestle with how to regulate without suppressing speech. i think that there is a globalfatigue, i think it is fairto there is a globalfatigue, i think it is fair to say that at least on a pa rt it is fair to say that at least on a part of a lot of people these polarising leaders, we see the cost, we see the toll, but it is going to ta ke we see the toll, but it is going to take a lot more than that. you know, bolsonaro is still in place. boris johnson may be behind in the polls here but, you know, he's years away from an election. yes, and ned temko it is really important to say that trump is still full of energy, he is campaigning ona trump is still full of energy, he is campaigning on a number of states this weekend. we should not dismiss his chances of getting a second term. what do you think the potential high turnout does to the balance of the votes? all the indications we hear about the

analysis of early voters is that a disproportionate number of them is drawn from first—time voters, a lot of them are young, so at least past experience suggests they are more likely to lean democratic. it's going to come down, quite frankly, to these three states that trump flipped in 2016 and that's michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania, because if biden was leading in all three with the caveat that the polls could be wrong of course, if biden retains those with a democrat, the fact is he will be the next president of the united states. what do you think of the high turnout? i mean, 80 million plus already voting. what does that do? i think it is really interesting andl do? i think it is really interesting and i respect ned's caution and none of us have a crystal ball and we have all been wrong before and i genuinely believe that hillary clinton would win when you are not actually in the heartland and

travelling the country it is impossible to have a sense of what is really going on but let's be clear, consistently for months now biden has had an eight to ten point lead in the polls in every poll. i mean, fox news this week had biden ahead 9% over trump. that is way beyond the margin of ever end as much as i agree with ned about those three states we are also talking about solely republican states like georgia and texas flipping and if trump loses even one of those it is really difficult to see a route for the white house sol really difficult to see a route for the white house so i think for the anti—tilt people and that is a lot of americans the headline that they relish on wednesday morning's new york post is you're fired with a picture of donald trump or, you know, loser. we may not know how big the margins are. there is a chance that we will see a landslide and we always have to qualify it and we

have to be comfortable about what actually happens but in are strong indications about where we're heading. k. it is going to be a fascinating few days and covid as in the background of all events. to the handling of the pandemic, and this weekend it looks as if europe is moving towards second lockdowns with some political leaders saying they have been surprised by the rate of the increase — but shouldn't they have predicted this? are they always behind the curve playing catch—up? iam going i am going to begin withjoe because we are looking at some changes in the uk, potentially at the moment. nothing fully concerned but certainly a lot of european countries also facing the same challenges. there is an almighty battle going on in the uk, in government. borisjohnson, battle going on in the uk, in government. boris johnson, as battle going on in the uk, in government. borisjohnson, as we all know, is wanting to cling on firmly to his tiered regional approach which we have seen in other european countries too. the idea being why

would you lock down in cornwall in the south—west of england which has far fewer cases than the north—east of england, and the same with east anglia. it's to blunt an instrument he said, too brutal, and get little in the last sort of day or so we have seen the sort of battles between probably the health secretary and the prime minister, the health secretary looking at the figures that have come out in the la st figures that have come out in the last dose of 36 hours, and modelling that shows the rate of increase in infection rates in parts of england are going at a faster rate than even the worst—case scenario. the caveat that, that is without any further government action. now, ironically, there was over the discussion of a potential national lockdown. boris johnson parked it, but it looks as if they are going to be forced into doing what they said they wouldn't do, they didn't want to do, and i think that the phrases sort of floating around the ether like we

may have to lockdown in november to save december, christmas is looming. and although it might sound a bit frivolous it is actually quite an important consideration. the other two things to remember that in the mix at the moment is the pressure on the nhs. if you remember in the first wave as we call it, the pandemic in march, it was all about stopping the national health service being overwhelmed. well, hospital beds are filling up in parts of the country and we are obviously approaching winter and that is going to bea approaching winter and that is going to be a key consideration for the government, if and when they make an announcement about a national lockdown which would be for a month, by the way, not two weeks if it happens. pressure as you say from other european countries, ireland has been in one form of lockdown for a while, switzerland, francejust re ce ntly a while, switzerland, francejust recently and other countries are taking more stringing measures so it seems like the pressure is building. not least in the other regions of the uk in northern ireland and wales. let's see what is actually announced and what unfolds. so it

looks like borisjohnson is clinging oi'i looks like borisjohnson is clinging on to his tiered approach by his fingernails. jeffrey kofman, when we compare what is going on in europe in the us with what is happening in east asia, is the style of government, this culture, what is behind the stark differences? government, this culture, what is behind the stark difference57m government, this culture, what is behind the stark differences? it is so behind the stark differences? it is so interesting to look at the numbers in places like south korea and taiwan where they have literally had a few hundred deaths. these are large countries and, really, it comes down to a number of factors but most of them cultural. in large parts of asia elderly people are not in care homes, they are living with family, so there aren't these opportunities for the virus to spread through elderly people in the same way. the compliance with face masks is traditional and also i think the saving experience of sars in 2003 prepared these countries

for... it push them to create response units for pandemics and so they were much better prepared and they were much better prepared and the populists understood that this was not a political thing, this was a scientific issue that had to be taken seriously a scientific issue that had to be ta ken seriously and a scientific issue that had to be taken seriously and so compliance and facemasks simply has not been an issue so all of those things conspire and i think when you flip back and look at when it's how it's been handled here in the uk and the kind of mixed messages, one of the things about epidemiology which is very, very clear and we see out of the various national responses around the world is that clear messaging that people can understand and believe it's criticalfor compliance, and on that front it's really been a national tragedy in the uk to see how confusing and complicated. even today, 15 people can go to weddings but 30 people can go to funerals. why? why is that in difference? why is it safe to go to a funeral? so people glass appear to

understand what's the logic. why should i follow the understand what's the logic. why should ifollow the rules understand what's the logic. why should i follow the rules that make no sense? it is interesting the idea of the logic because you are absolutely right, people will put these examples followed in the way we have just heard, including this ten hymn curfew, i may have heard also subtle things like coronavirus can't tell the time so why do you have a ten o'clock curfew rather than 11 o'clock? the government would say it is not about the strict science of some of these measures. they would argue it is about reducing the amount of contact time, the amount of socialising. it is a sort of knowledge. it's the idea, whether that is right or wrong i make no judgment at all, whether that is right or wrong i make nojudgment at all, but whether that is right or wrong i make no judgment at all, but the idea is to stop people perhaps drinking in pubs longer than they would like to, oil, sorry, longer than the government would like them too, then you lose your inhibitions, then you forget about social distancing, then you forget about washing your hands. everything has been about this government trying to

sayjust do a little less of all this stuff and then hope that somehow contact will reduce and so will the infection rates. and ned, that's the point, isn't it? in europe in the us governments have said we want to allow a little more flexibility, we want to treat you grown up so flexibility, we want to treat you grown up so you flexibility, we want to treat you grown up so you can flexibility, we want to treat you grown up so you can live your life a bit for as long as possible? well, that may be the intent but we have models for behaviour and notjust in a sage but i come back to new zealand or indeed to new york state after the terrible ordeal at the beginning of the pandemic there, and thatis beginning of the pandemic there, and that is the model that seems to work isa that is the model that seems to work is a firm leadership, asjeffrey and joe both say, clear messaging, and, absent that, you have to rely when you do the small new one still a little this, do a little rat, you

have to rely on broad popular trust in the people who are delivering that message, and one of the problem is that borisjohnson's government faces is that trust has eroded and, ina way, faces is that trust has eroded and, in a way, ironically, a full lockdown might be an easier message to deliver then a somewhat more confused and nuanced fixture. can i just respond to a couple of things ned said. ned is right but the example of new zealand was one of eliminating the virus. now, that is slightly different to sort of suppressing it, to trying to live with it in the way ned was sort of saying that the uk government has tried to do. again, you make a judgment about whether that was the right policy or not. i don't think they were ever pursuing elimination because if you where you would have followed the sorts of policies that jacinda arden did which, she closed off the island of new zealand. can i just, that's absolutely night except

thatis just, that's absolutely night except that is why i raise new york as a parallel. politically the imperative seems to be the same thing. but in free societies where you don't have the china option of basically ordering people to do things, there's the complex challenge of communicating in a way that establishes clarity and trust. south korea and japan are free societies though and they've managed much better than, you know, some european nations, haven't they? but, anyway, we're going to move on to continue our theme of what kind of political leadership we do want at the moment because in the uk this week another really interesting political event. in the uk this week the former labour leaderjeremy corbyn was suspended from the party after failing to fully accept the findings of an independent report by the ehrc into anti—semitism. it was a dramatic, important moment and a sign that sir keir starmer,

the new labour leader, a more sober, serious leader means business when he says the party is under new management. but the british general election isn't due for 11—5 years and if by then we are, hopefully past the covid crisis, will we want quiet focused leadership in the style of starmer, angela merkel orjoe biden, or a return to charisma and vision? jeff — the potential passing on of the trump era, and certainly the suspension for now, you know, moving on from the corbyn leadership, is there something about that in the sign of the times at the moment? this is a really interesting move that has happened in the labour party. jeremy corbyn's model response really pushed the party

into the corner and the fact that he didn't get away with it is really significant. the fact that the party actually stood up to him and said you know what, you can't dismiss this and minimise it the way you are, that's what you did as leader, that was not what helped cost us the election, enough already. i would not expect a national reckoning with donald trump within the republican party. i think that isjust donald trump within the republican party. i think that is just too tall an order, it is not the way politics work. there will be a lot of soul if donald trump loses. i think that a lot of republicans, in fact pretty much every up looking in the senate has sold his or her salt to support trump. —— every republican in the senate has sold his or her soul to support charm. they have been terrified of him and absolutely cowed by him and now the party if they lose has to come to terms with what exactly they have left in terms of moral principles and where they going to take it but i don't think

we're going to see something on that level where trump is pushed out. acknowledge the huge, how they compromised the country in their party. and tempo just for you, that's just again party. and tempo just for you, that'sjust again on party. and tempo just for you, that's just again on the cob in question, the fact that the left are comprehensively pushed out of leadership, corbin refusing to accept the report findings in full and very, very tough action when taken by the new labour leader. does that have international right or wider resonance, do you think?|j think wider resonance, do you think?” think potentially it may down the line but as all of us have said an election reckoning is some distance away. i would say you are right to call keir starmer cautious. he is lawyerly, he is a lawyer. and i think he would have far preferred jeremy corbyn to discreetly shut up when this report came out and to move on, because he is in control of the party out and the party

apparatus, and i think in a sense he was politically false into this. he said quite explicitly that in drawing a line under this anti—semitism of attempting to draw anti—semitism of attempting to draw a line under the long and tangled recent history of anti—semitic incidents and complaints, he wanted to make sure that we do not underestimate our brush this aside and went clubbing in effect did just that i see he had little option to at least suspend him. —— and went corbyn in affected just that. is this the end of the left, potentially, in the labour party or the start of a civil war?” potentially, in the labour party or the start of a civil war? i think the start of a civil war? i think the start of the civil war might be exaggerated because actually if you look at some of the reaction from allies ofjeremy corbyn yes there has been a response, the estate jeremy corbyn, the suspension is wrong, the former shadow chancellor, i think there is a petition going from some of the former shadow

cabinet members. a key secretary of the unite union a huge backer of the labour party over any threatening to withdraw funding anything perhaps has taken withdraw funding anything perhaps has ta ken away withdraw funding anything perhaps has taken away something like 10%. in years gone by that would have been massive to withdraw funding from the labour party. i think this is actually the fight keir starmer doesn't mind having. it might help him. as geoffrey and ned have both said. there's time. there's time for keirstarmerto unite. said. there's time. there's time for keir starmer to unite. people said. there's time. there's time for keir starmerto unite. people in said. there's time. there's time for keir starmer to unite. people in the party wa nt keir starmer to unite. people in the party want to look forward, they wa nt party want to look forward, they want to take on the conservatives, and this might help him. that's it for dateline london for this week — thanks to my guests ned temko, jeffrey koffman, and jo coburn — we're back next week at the same time, when we might know the name of the next president of the united states. goodbye.

hello. the weather's already being a little bit wild in places across the uk so far today. and there is more to come through the rest of this weekend. more in the way of heavy rain at times and the risk of gales. there is a flooding risk with that rain continuing and of course there's winds, touching 70, maybe 80 mph in some spots, some travel disruption possible too. let's get back to the here and now, though. today it's all about storm aidan, named yesterday by the irish weather service. on the southern edge of that's where you have the strongest of the winds, which will push through northern ireland into western scotland this afternoon, but it does help to clear the rain from western england and wales, brighter afternoon here. strong gusty winds accompanying some pretty intense areas of rain across the eastern half of england, which again should clear by the end of the afternoon. a bit more sunshine this afternoon to the north and east of scotland, but for now widespread gales. strongest this afternoon across western scotland

and northern ireland, with gusts of 70—80 mph. those winds coming from the south, so on the face of it a mild day, but in the wind it will temper the feeling somewhat. this evening in western scotland, it breaks up into showers, quite dry for a time with lighter winds, but later in the night, more cloud, wind and rain arrives. the temperature could drop during the night, rising later on. on as that cloud and rain spills its way in. into sunday, yet another area of low pressure. this contains the remnants of hurricane zeta, it is a bit further away compared with storm aidan today. the winds not as strong. could still touch gale force at times. something brighter developing in the middle of the day in scotland, but more cloud later. staying cloudy and damp in many parts of england and wales, the rain heaviest in the west with ongoing risk of flooding in the hills and smaller rivers. the winds strongest later in the day across the north—west of scotland.

the western isles could see the winds in the evening touching 80 mph yet again. a rather cool day for scotland and northern ireland. a mild night on sunday for england and wales. it will ease through the morning and early afternoon in the south—east on monday, brighter skies developing, a few showers in the west. from there on, the pressure starts to build in, so after a stormy weekend things should turn drier and colder with overnight frost and fog.

cough this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the british cabinet are preparing to meet to consider plans for a national lockdown in england, after a warning that coronavirus is running riot across the country. senior government scientific advisers say such a move could help to slow its spread. not a magic bullet, not a way out of this, but it is a measure you could consider essentially to buy yourself some time. a europe—wide surge in coronavirus cases has spurred a wave of tighter restrictions, with a six—week national lockdown announced in belgium and a partial lockdown in greece. rescue teams search through the rubble for survivors after a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece — at least 27 people are confirmed dead. just three days to go — donald trump and joe biden campaign