this is bbc news with the latest headlines: cabinet ministers are meeting to consider plans for a national lockdown in england — after a warning that coronavirus is " running riot" across the country. nhs leaders urge the government to move swiftly. it is really important that the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. the prime minister and his senior advisors are due to hold a press conference later this afternoon — we'll bring you that live here on bbc news. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has issued new advice that people should not travel to or from england, except for essential purposes. as the government's furlough scheme ends, there's concern from business leaders on what a second lockdown would mean forjobs. rescue teams search

through the rubble for survivors, after a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece — at least 27 people are confirmed dead. bond. james bond. and tributes are paid to sir sean connery, who has died at the age of 90. tributes are paid by his successors. hello, good afternoon. the prime minister is meeting cabinet ministers and will be holding a press briefing later this afternoon, as the government considers a new "stay at home" order across england. it's thought schools, colleges and universities could be exempt. it comes as official

documents, seen by the bbc, suggest the uk could be on course for a daily coronavirus death toll of more than 4,000 unless further restrictions are introduced, much higher than during the first wave. scientists predict that hospitalisations are likely to peak in mid—december, with deaths rising until at least late december, before falling from early january. a separate document circulating in government, based on nhs england modelling, warns that the nhs may be unable to accept any more patients by christmas, even if the nightingale hospitals are used and non—urgent procedures cancelled. this morning scotland's first minister nicola sturgeon advised people there not to travel to and from england unless essential. 0ur political correspondent, chris mason, reports. stay at home, protect our nhs and save lives... the stark message from spring,

and the stark reality, a similar instruction for england appears imminent again. this is why. the lines here are the projections of different groups of scientists of what might happen if there aren't any further restrictions. the steadily climbing low black line is what was the so—called reasonable worst—case scenario, but all of the projections now suggest things could be much, much worse than that, and compare them with the blue shaded curve on the left of the graph. that is what happened earlier this year. we have been saying for about three or four weeks that it's really important the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible, because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. it's thought schools, colleges and universities will stay open during what could be a month—long lockdown for england. because action wasn't taken earlier,

when it should have been, we are now in a harder place, and the tier 3 approach essentially just levels us off at a bad place. the rest of the country is coming up to that bad place, and it's the recognition of that scenario which is now leading, i think, to what's being discussed today. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, urged people to comply with scotland's current restrictions and said people should not travel to or from england unless essential. wales is already a week into a lockdown. northern ireland's schools will reopen as planned on monday and current restrictions will end a week on friday as planned. in recent weeks in england, the government's focus has been on a regional response to the virus. that, it seems, is about to radically change. chris mason, bbc news. and chris is here now. chris, it was only a few weeks ago,

perhaps even less, but borisjohnson was saying he still didn't want a national lockdown. has he been forced to change his strategy, do you think? yeah, i think he has been forced by the facts, as presented by the scientist. in the last couple of hours the cabinet has been meeting remotely, scientists have been briefing the cabinet. we understand from sources that have there has been quite a lot of pushback from cabinet ministers because there is such a delicate balance here, isn't? . clearly they want to avoid this potential death rate as we head into the winter, but the same time there is an equal amount of concern about the restrictions on our liberties and our livelihoods. you so briefly in my report that the graph that scientists have shown to senior members of the government. i think it is worth looking at this once more because this is the essence of where we are today and why the government in england is being forced to act. as i said in the report, the little blue bit on the left—hand side that is shaded in,

thatis left—hand side that is shaded in, that is a representation of what happened in the spring and we can compare that with the series of projections from different scientists, and yes, there is a significant margin of error, they are projections, not predictions, based on no additional measures being put in place as of now. but evenif being put in place as of now. but even if you take the more conservative projections there, they are suggesting a spike that sooner and is much, much higher than what happened in the spring. so we are talking about roughly, at least as far as talking about roughly, at least as farasi talking about roughly, at least as faras i can talking about roughly, at least as far as i can see it, these peak in the spring was a bad 1000 deaths a day. it peaked at about 1000 deaths. even on the lowest modelling, not predictions, but the lowest modelling, it would be at least 2000 a day? yes, some of the other modelling suggests it could be considerably higher than that. and when you look at the grass close up, there is also the fear that this time the peak lasts for longer and of course what that means in terms of course what that means in terms of the death toll is particularly

grave. there is a kind of an element to this where we shouldn't be entirely surprised, should we? the first wave was in the spring. we we re first wave was in the spring. we were coming out of winter, the weather was improving all the time. viruses, we were told, would be much more prevalent in winter conditions. we knew winter would come and we knew we would have to get through the whole of the winter, notjust the whole of the winter, notjust the end of the winter like last time, so in some ways there has presumably been quite a lot of planning gone into preparing for this? yes, and we know because the documents have since been published that the scientific group known as sage, but advised the government, we re sage, but advised the government, were suggesting in the middle of last month that there should be this idea of a circuit breaker lockdown, the idea that you would shut things down around this week, what has been the school half term week, for many parts of england because the idea articulated by some of the scientists is that that would be more significant a lockdown and what we expect the government for england to say in a couple of hours' time

because the schools would be close and anyway, whereas the expectation is that whatever boris johnson and anyway, whereas the expectation is that whatever borisjohnson does have to say later on he went close to schools. so really what the welsh government and northern ireland executive did, building additional restrictions around the half term break? yeah, that is what we knew that the sage scientists were advocating a couple of weeks ago or five or six weeks ago now. the government was absolutely insistent that that wasn't necessary because it was pursuing this regional approach and it could point to other countries around europe and the world who are doing something similar. what has been quite striking when you compare the english approach with the approach elsewhere in europe, and including wales in the uk, is that england was increasingly isolated. we have seen the move by president macron in france, angler merkel in germany, ireland, wales, belgium and elsewhere. england are looking increasingly isolated. the government had always said when we push government ministers, will there be a national lockdown? they said, well, we don't rule out any

particular course of action, but they clearly hope that the regional approach, despite the pain it caused politically, with the tussle between the mayor of manchester and the government a couple of weeks ago, that that was the better option, the argument being there are still significant parts of the country where the case rate is relatively low. but in recent days, even in those areas where it is low it has been increasing at quite a wait. and judging by the figures, even in those areas the suggestion is that the capacity in those hospitals and i was talking to one of our correspondence earlier about the south—west, where there is are less hospital capacity because of rural areas, they would hit crisis areas and points much earlier bourbon in more populous areas. exactly, this is the second document that has been circulating based on nhs england modelling that you are mentioning a few moments ago. the fear would be that the nhs wouldn't be able to accept any more patients by christmas if nothing was done, even if those nightingale hospitals will fully back up and running and their

capacity was maxed out and all nonurgent procedures were cancelled. so from the government's point of view you are staring at a nightmare scenario, a scenario bluntly where someone scenario, a scenario bluntly where someone could call for an ambulance and there wouldn't be one to come and there wouldn't be one to come and collect you or a member of your family. that is the kind of scenario that this picture paints, which is why, despite boris johnson that this picture paints, which is why, despite borisjohnson saying repeatedly he did not want to get to this point, presented with that graph in the cabinet meeting that is concluding around about now, it would appear he's been left with no option. chris mason, correspondence, you know you will be back more for us you know you will be back more for us in the afternoon. thank you very much. we will bring you a special programme with that press conference live from downing street, in a special programme, which will begin later this afternoon and on bbc one as well, because red from az30pm and we will hear from boris johnson well, because red from az30pm and we will hear from borisjohnson at about 5pm, we think.

scotland's first minister nicola sturgeon has told scots not to travel south to england unless essential. writing on twitter, she said the government in edinburgh would contine to consider data on the spread of the virus in the coming days — and take account of any developments in england. 0ur scotland correspondent alexandra mackenzie has been giving me more details. yes, and nicola sturgeon sent out quite a lengthy message on twitter this morning in reaction to the discussions ongoing in london today. one of the things she did say on twitter is people should not be travelling to and from england at this stage, except for essential purposes. by essential purposes, the scottish government usually means things like dental appointments, if you are caring for someone, if you are having to travel for work. so apart from these things, nicola sturgeon has said, "don't travel between scotland and england." the first minister also on twitter said, in her words, in regards to speculation about lockdown in england, "the

"scottish government will also always take account "of any developments." now, as you know, boris is due to speak later today. if england does go into lockdown, the big question is what will scotland do next? there is sometimes a lot of talk about a four nations approach, but as nicola sturgeon also pointed out this morning, scotland does seem to be doing better than other parts of the uk at the moment because of tough restrictions that have been in place, particularly in the central belt. so she has said that things do seem to be flattening out and the number of cases, the cases are not rising as much as they thought they might be. she also said that one of the things she would be thinking about would be financial support. and if scotland does remain in step with england, would that financial support only be available then? or if scotland takes a different

position and possibly goes into lockdown at a later date, would financial support be available for scotland then? so i think there's a lot to think about for the scottish government. the eyes are very much on westminster today to see what they say later on. and alexandra, how much political consensus is there in scotland? because we are seeing less and less of it in england, and in the debates at westminster. how are the opposition parties at holyrood taking the sort of line, as you said, quite tough a few weeks earlier, that the snp government has pursued? haven't seen much reaction to what's going on today, but yes, as you said, there has been an awful lot of discussion holyrood this week, discussion about the five tier system that scotland is due to move onto on monday. there will be some changes throughout the country. for much of the central belt that will remain the equivalent

of tier 3, which is the highest anyone is in. no one is in tier 4 at the moment, which is more like lockdown. those changes are due to come in on monday, big changes on monday. but we will be thinking, well, is that going to change now, depending what comes out of westminster later today? alexandra mckenzie. the welsh government has said a two—week firebreak there will still end on 9th november, regardless of a potential lockdown in england. ministers in cardiff meet tomorrow to finalise post—firebreak rules. first minister mark drakeford has taken to social media to reiterate that any downing street announcement "will relate to england only". northern ireland first minister arlene foster has said that the current tightened restrictions there will end, as planned, on the 13th of novermber. on the 13th of november.

pubs and restaurants have been closed, and schools, which will re—open on monday, were closed for two weeks. rather than one week. the number of deaths in turkey has risen to 25, following the earthquake that struck in the aegean sea on friday. rescue teams in the turkish city of izmir are continuing to search through the wreckage of collapsed buildings for survivors — as these astonishing pictures show. somebody pulled out of the rubble and massively on her way to hospital. —— mercifully. this is the moment a woman and her three children were pulled from the rubble in the city of izmir, more than 18 hours after the quake. bbc turkish's esra yalcinalp is on the ground in izmir, and gave us this update. search and rescue efforts have been going on since the earthquake that happened yesterday at about 3:30pm. initially there were 17 buildings that were completely collapsed. right now, nine of the efforts have been completed. after 23 hours of the earthquake,

two young people were rescued from the rubble of an apartment building. this gave a lot of hope about other people who are missing at the moment. the efforts are being continued at eight buildings still. many people are still reluctant to go back to their houses because there are a lot of after—shocks happening. there have been more than 500 after—shocks since yesterday. at 8:30am this morning, local time, we felt one that was 5.0 scale on the richter. still the efforts to fight the coronavirus also very active in turkey, and in izmir. so the government agencies, as well as the local municipality workers are also distributing masks

and sanitary objects to fight against the coronavirus. people are in the dilemma about whether to stay at home and risk the earthquake, the after—shocks, or risk going out in the city and risk coronavirus. so that's the dilemma that the local izmir people are facing right now. that was our reporter at izmir in turkey reporting. the headlines on bbc news... cabinet ministers meet as the government considers a month long lockdown for england — — after a warning that coronavirus is ‘running riot‘ across the country. the prime minister is due to hold a press conference later this afternoon — at 5pm.

tributes are paid to formerjames bond actor — sir sean connery — who has died at the age of 90. before all that, the james bond of the bbc sport team. gavin is here. that is too great a condiment, great to see you and yes, the final weekend... wales are playing scotland right now, with alun wynjones earning a record 149th cap. absolutely incredible from him, and in this one wales lead 7—6 at the break, the only try of the first half coming through, and you can watch live coverage now on bbc one.

england, ireland and france all still in with a chance of winning the title on the final day. england are second in the table and play italy in rome this afternoon — knowing a bonus point win will give them the best chance of another six nations crown. following that — it's top of the table ireland against france. by that point, both sides will know what's required to win the title. england captain 0wen farrell says all they can do is concentrate on themselves. we need to go out there and put ourselves in the best place possible. come kick—off, first, and then we obviously need to be disciplined in the way that we play. 0bviously all of the... normally, all of the good stuff that everybody wants to see comes off the back of the hard work that goes on early doors, so we have got to make sure that we do the basics really well. manchester city are back up to 7th in the premier league — after a 1—0 win over sheffield united in the lunchtime kick off. kyle walker's goal proving the difference — scoring with this long range effort on his 100th league appearance for city, against his boyhood club. sheffield united remain without a win this season — and in the relegation zone with just

one point from their first seven games. chelsea have not long kicked off against burnley kicked off against burnley at turf moor. goalless there. mason mount, hakim ziyech and tammy abraham are in for frank lampard's side today. later, liverpool can go back to the top of the premier league, with a win over west ham. just two matches in the scottish premiership under way. dundee 0—0 ross county. and livingston 0—0 motherwell. all eyes at hampden park at 5 o'clock, for the first of the scottish cup semi—finals. the edinburgh derby between hearts and hibs. valtteri bottas will be on pole for the emilia romagna grand prix tomorrow. the finn was just less than a second quicker than mercedes team—mate lewis hamilton, with red bull's max verstappen third fastest. mercedes could win a seventh consecutive constructors' title tomorrow at imola, which is hosting its first race since the 2006 san marino grand prix.

it's halloween today and many of you may be dressing up, even if it's just at home. well, the british heavyweight derek chisora has got involved at the weigh—in for his fight with undisputed world cruiserweight champion 0leksandr usyk. chisora wore halloween face and body paint, with the word ‘war‘ daubed on his chest, as the pair went head—to—head. we'll see if those scare tactics will have any effect on his opponent, who's considered one of the best fighters on the planet. it is boxing, you don't know this is a heavyweight game. and i hope he is ready because we are bringing... bringing, bringing violence and boxing and everything, we're going to chuck so much stuff at him. adam peaty has suffered a rare defeat in the latest international swimming league match in budapest, but his london roar team have still won the second match of the series. peaty was beaten into second place in the 100 metres breaststroke, but the london side still finished out in front to make it two wins out of two. england captain heather knight smashed 83 from just 39 balls to help sydney thunder to victory

over adelaide strikers in the women's big bash. knight hit three sixes and 11 fours to record her highest knock in the competition as sydney won by 58 runs to leave them top of the early standings. that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. that's bbc.co.uk/sport. that's all for me. there you go, if you, shocks, but definitely no horror. thank you very much. —— a few shocks. the prospect of a new national lockdown comes on the final day of the treasury's furlough scheme, which has subsidised the wages of up to nine and a half million employees. the less generousjob support scheme replaces it , and business leaders replaces it, and business

leaders are warning that much more financial help will be needed from the government in the months ahead. our business correspondent katy austin reports. today was a big date in businesses' diaries because the furlough scheme is closing. this lighting firm will use its replacement, the job support scheme. aimed at keeping workers in theirjobs on reduced hours, it is less generous. the government will pay 62% of hours they're not working and the employer 5%. we used to have 85 staff working in the two warehouses. we think we've only got enough work for about 25 butjss means we can actually keep 45 staff on, working part—time, which means that butjss means we can actually keep 45 staff on, working part—time, which means that we've got those 45 skilled staff when the work comes back in the new year. there's a different version for firms forced to close by law because of restrictions. for them, the government will fund two thirds of workers' wages. but overnight, the landscape has changed. my heart sank because it is devastating news for business. the boss of one hotel group told me a further support package would be needed if there's a further england—wide lockdown. the grants need to be reviewed. the furlough scheme really needs to be back to where it was in march, where they were covering 80% of our staff's wages. we really need that vat and business

rate relief extended for hospitality to come out of this crisis and recover over the number of years it's going to take to repay all the debt. it is unsettling news, too, for this london beauty salon. we had just started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. and the fact that we may have to lock down and close for however long is a real concern to us. we still have to pay rent. i wasn't given a rent period, a holiday period for rent. if a second national lockdown does happen, the big questions now are whether the chancellor will have to announce another round of financial support and how that would be paid for. katy austin, bbc news. michelle 0vens is the founder of small business britain which campaigns for millions of firms across the country — shejoins me now. thanks very much for talking to me on bbc news. is there a slight feeling of sadness that the furlough

scheme is passing? well, i think small businesses have known for a long time that this date is coming up long time that this date is coming up and we have seen quite a lot of change over the last few weeks. actually there was an announcement a couple of weeks ago and followed up by an announcement last week, so the landscape does continue to shift and of course small businesses are not one sector and there are different situations across the country, whether you are in tier 2, tier 3, mandated to close, so there is a lot going on at the moment. it is a lot for small businesses to get their heads around. and the furlough scheme, it was pretty well understood, i think it is fair to say, certainly as the months went on, but thejob support scheme is materially different. what are the concerns that it raises for you?m is, and the biggest concern for me actually is that a lot of small businesses are not fully aware of it, so the latest update to thejob support scheme, which was onlyjust a week ago, actually, just over a

week ago, announced, which is this top up scheme, which you just mentioned in the video. as long as you start on 20% of the time, you can geta you start on 20% of the time, you can get a top up from the government which essentially get them to about 73% of their salary. so we have had a lot of confusion actually from small businesses over the last week. lots of them think itjust applies to hospitality or tier 3. actually it applies to all businesses, which is actually really good news for small businesses, but the challenge is that there is so much happening and so much cane change coming so fast, small businesses struggle to keep up with a really fast change. this is effectively two different schemes that are achieving the same objective, trying to maximise the number of people who remain in employment, even if their workplace for one reason or another is shot, whether it is mandated to close or restricted because of the nature of its business to what it can safely do. i was talking to a small business owner only first thing this morning today when i went into their business, who was saying to me,

look, this has all been great, but there is one fundamental problem or businesses are having to deal with, almost, who one way or another lease their premises or rent it, and don't necessarily own the freehold of the building they operate in. he said his landlord hasn't cut any slack for them at all throughout this year. i know there have been a lot of good landlords and i'm sure a lot of good landlords and i'm sure a lot of your members have good stories to tell about landlords giving them some grace, perhaps helping them spread their payments or giving them short holidays, but that is a big question, those overhead questions are ones the government can't get around in the businesses can't get around, can they? know, that is true. a lot of businesses don't necessarily have an office space, they might trade online work from home. but rent has been a massive challenge and we saw a lot of landlords that gave flexibility for the first three months of the first lockdown earlier this year, but of course that is not sustainable for them either and this was really a

big target of the local authority gra nts big target of the local authority grants that were, that we had during the first lockdown and actually we have to some degree now, actually. so both in tier 3 for businesses that are mandated to close and in tier 2 for hospitality, hotels, etc, it has got a lot of complexity around it, but we are seeing some of those grants, and that are really targeted at some of these fixed costs businesses can't get out of. presumably one of the big continuing problems for small business is that the much promised business rate reform we have heard about from successive chancellors has never happened and you are still tied to the rateable value, often which is a notional rateable value that bears notional rateable value that bears no relation to what actually your costs are no relation to what actually your costs a re in no relation to what actually your costs are in the building, if, as you say, you work from a space? yeah, the conversation around rates has got pushed back a bit this year because they have been... because they have disappeared a bit of the landscape, but a lot of these

grants, these local authority grants are based on your rateable value, so that kind of pegs you in a certain place or another and you get a big challenge for small businesses in central london, for example, they are effectively priced out of grants because they rateable value is so high, soi because they rateable value is so high, so i think that this will inevitably lead to a review of that because we are seeing further downstrea m because we are seeing further downstream impacts of these rateable values. when we do see rates come back in, and you know, one thing i would say is that we have seen all the way through the pandemic, every time we get an update on the science, it changes to the pandemic. we very soon afterwards get an update from the treasury. the chancellor has said a number of times that they will keep responding and we have heard a lot of times that he winter package will get amended, should the situation change, so i wouldn't be surprised if there are more changes coming down the line in the near future.

and i think in the meantime, for us in most important thing is for the general public to really think about how they can support small businesses because it is notjust about government support, it is about government support, it is about all of us supporting small businesses through what is going to bea businesses through what is going to be a really tricky winter. we know from our research with the american express , from our research with the american ex press , we from our research with the american express, we know that 60% people are now spending more with small businesses than they ever have before. we need to carry on doing that. indeed. that is the upside and let's hope we can focus on some of the upsides and as you say we may hear more from the chancellor. michelle 0vens of small business britain, thank you very much. michelle 0vens was talking about change and it is one of those roles that changes every few years and it is the role that made his career. sir sean connery has died aged 90. the first actor to play 007 in the james bond films,