this is bbc news. the headlines at 4.00: cabinet ministers are meeting to consider plans for a national lockdown in england, after a warning that coronavirus is " running riot" across the country. nhs leaders urge the government to move swiftly. it is really important that the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. the prime minister and his senior advisors are due to hold a press conference later this afternoon — we'll bring you that live here on bbc news. that is in our ‘s time. —— one hour's time. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has issued new advice that people should not travel to or from england,

except for essential purposes. as the government's furlough scheme ends, there's concern from business leaders on what a second lockdown would mean forjobs. rescue teams search through the rubble for survivors, after a powerful earthquake hits turkey and greece — at least 27 people are confirmed dead. bond. james bond. and tributes are paid to sir sean connery, who has died at the age of 90. good afternoon, welcome to bbc news. the prime minister is meeting cabinet ministers and will be holding a press briefing later this afternoon, as the government considers a new "stay at home" order across england.

it's thought schools, colleges and universities could be exempt. it comes as official documents, seen by the bbc, suggest the uk could be on course for a daily coronavirus death toll of more than 4,000 people unless further restrictions are introduced — much higher than during the first wave. scientists predict that hospitalisations are likely to peak in mid—december, with deaths rising until at least the end of the month. before they begin to go down again at the beginning ofjanuary. a separate document circulating in government, based on nhs england modelling, warns that the nhs may be unable to accept any more patients by christmas, even if the nightingale hospitals are used and non—urgent procedures cancelled. this morning scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, advised people there not to travel to and from england unless essential. 0ur political correspondent, chris mason, reports. stay at home, protect our nhs and save lives...

the stark message from spring, and the stark reality, a similar instruction for england appears imminent again. this is why. the lines here are the projections of different groups of scientists of what might happen if there aren't any further restrictions. the steadily climbing low black line is what was the so—called reasonable worst—case scenario, but all of the projections now suggest things could be much, much worse than that, and compare them with the blue shaded curve on the left of the graph. that is what happened earlier this year. we have been saying for about three or four weeks that it's really important the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible, because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. it's thought schools, colleges and universities will stay open during what could be a month—long lockdown for england. the cabinet is discussing the plans this afternoon

and the prime minister will hold a news conference at lipm. because action wasn't taken earlier, when it should have been, we are now in a harder place, and the tier 3 approach essentially just levels us off at a bad place. the rest of the country is coming up to that bad place, and it's the recognition of that scenario which is now leading, i think, to what's being discussed today. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, urged people to comply with scotland's current restrictions and said people should not travel to or from england unless essential. wales is already a week into a lockdown. northern ireland's schools will reopen as planned on monday and current restrictions will end a week on friday as planned. in recent weeks in england, the government's focus has been on a regional response to the virus. that, it seems, is about to radically change. chris mason, bbc news. just before i return to chris mason,

let me bring you the latest figures we have had on the number of cases. the uk government's and their public health agencies have recorded 21,915 cases in the 2a hours to saturday. that is a modest fall off on the 21,405 in the 24 hours to friday. and those figures are the latest we have. we do of course get a uk wide figure at some point soon. the number of deaths, and this is the otherfigure we number of deaths, and this is the other figure we have received, number of deaths, and this is the otherfigure we have received, the number of deaths in the 24 hours to saturday, of those who had tested positive for coronavirus at some point in the last 28 days, it was 326 deaths. that is a long way short of some of the figures that chris andi of some of the figures that chris and i will be talking about in a few minutes. bear in mind those figures are modelling, they are not predictions on what will happen in the coming weeks and months, but there is no doubt we are on an

u pwa rd there is no doubt we are on an upward trajectory. chris, that is no great surprise, is it? but on the basis of these figures what are you expecting to hear from the prime minister ina expecting to hear from the prime minister in a little under one hour's time now? this afternoon there's been a cabinet meeting, ministers joining there's been a cabinet meeting, ministersjoining it remotely there's been a cabinet meeting, ministers joining it remotely and scientists, the government's to scientific advisers were part of that briefing. we hear the scientist had quite a tough time, quite a bit of pushback from some in the cabinet, because clearly what the government is contemplating for england is very significant and frankly is a screeching u—turn from where they were as recently as yesterday publicly because for the last couple of weeks they have been advocating this regional approach and with it taking quite a lot political heat. let's bring you right up to date with what we are hearing and expect to be confirmed by the prime minister in one hour's time. we think there will be a new lockdown for england for one month. that will mean that nonessential retail is closed, hospitality, pubs, cad res retail is closed, hospitality, pubs, cadres and retail is closed, hospitality, pubs, cad res a nd restau ra nts retail is closed, hospitality, pubs, cadres and restaurants closed, with the exception of takeaways. but

schools, universities, colleges, educational settings for children, it would appear, will remain open. that is the big distinction to how things looked with that original lockdown in england and across the uk back in the spring. confirmation expected in the press conference at 5pm. it looks like these measures will take effect from thursday of this week, so there will still be a process during the week regularly this has to become law before it can properly kick in. so yes, undoubtedly a complete about turn from the government, presented as it has been in recent days by data from its scientific advisers, which has forced its hand. no question that the options have narrowed dramatically in the last few days. the question, i suppose, people will be asking at home is the government said it didn't want this. did it do all it could to prevent it? that is the big question because there are sa ntas the big question because there are santas who have been arguing, and we know this, the sage, scientists, the group of sa ntas know this, the sage, scientists, the group of santas that advise the

government, that they wanted a circuit breaker lockdown for england, and it was described, over the half term holidays, which they hoped would have a particularly significant effect because the schools were closed anyway. we have seen what countries elsewhere in the uk and more broadly around europe, for instance wales, has been a lockdown for a week already. let me show you the graphs that have informed the government's judgment in the last hours. let's have a look at this graph that contains projections that the government at a senior level have seen from their scientists in the last couple of days. as you said, projections, not predictions. exactly. there is a huge range there. two things to point out. firstly, the bit that is shaded in blue at the bottom left—hand side, that is what happened earlier this year. then the other lines that you see are projections from different scientific groups about what would happen this autumn and winter if there were no additional measures imposed in england. and bluntly,

whilst the variation is significant, it is quite clearly obvious that all of those projections paint a very bleak picture. either compared with the spring or compared with the smooth black line that you can see on that graph, which was what the government described and the scientists described as its reasonable worst case scenario. blu ntly, reasonable worst case scenario. bluntly, all of these scenarios predicted by these scientific modellers are considerably worse than what was the reasonable worst case scenario. and on that basis, coupled with what we already knew in terms of the rate of the increase of the virus, imperial college london, for instance, saying that the data is suggesting that thousand —— a lot more people a day are catching the virus at the moment. clearly a lockdown is the last thing any government would want to do unless it was. do so. in terms of what this will mean, we have for example today happens to be the end of the pella

scheme. thejob happens to be the end of the pella scheme. the job support happens to be the end of the pella scheme. thejob support scheme effectively comes into force from tomorrow, for all intents and purposes, for most businesses next week. there have been real concerns about whether the funding for that is adequate, particularly in scenarios where businesses are forced to close down. that was going to beat in tier 3, but is now going to beat in tier 3, but is now going to beat in tier 3, but is now going to be the whole of england. do you think the chancellor is going to have to go back and look again at the financial package? have to go back and look again at the financial package ?|j have to go back and look again at the financial package? i think there will be huge pressure to do exactly that. some elements of the financial support for businesses that are kicking in as of tomorrow at the start of november were effectively furlough too, but the government does was determined not to use that label because it was making the argument it needed to widen that cistern down. clearly in england we are heading into a very different scenario, it looks like from the tail end of next week, so with that undoubtedly there will be a huge amount of pressure on rishi sunak, the chancellor, who by the way has been one of those within the cabinet are you arguing passionately that where possible businesses should be

able to stay open, not least because he is conscious of the vast amount of borrowing the government is doing at the moment the bills that will at some point have to be paid back. but there is no doubt, there will be big questions asked and no doubt at the news c0 nfe re nce questions asked and no doubt at the news conference around five tonight, round exactly what the financial support will be that is commensurate with the scale of what the government is about to announce. with the scale of what the government is about to announcelj government is about to announce.” suppose the other thing that people might wonder is... i mean, i'm sure there will be frustration in some parts of england where they have been under, for example, tier 3 restrictions. the whole purpose of the regional system was to prevent a national lockdown, so in a sense they have already suffered pain, and then they are going to share and everybody else's pain from next week, but i suppose the question that might be asked is how will we know if this has worked? what will be the criteria we will be able to look at the end of the month to judge it? it is a really good question, in exactly the question that was put to mark crayford, wales's first minister, at the start

of —— mark drake said. at the start of —— mark drake said. at the start of their lockdown is not i think the scientists who are advising all of the governments around the uk and indeed borisjohnson the governments around the uk and indeed boris johnson making decisions around this in this insta nce decisions around this in this instance will hope that within a month you begin to get a sense from the data that the number of people testing positive each day starts to fall and come down considerably, with you then being able to make projections about what that will meana projections about what that will mean a hospital capacity several weeks down the track. clearly, given the lags that we know exist, a couple of weeks between someone being infected and then potentially being infected and then potentially being infected and then potentially being in hospital, a couple of weeks beyond that before the gravest cases end up in intensive care, that they would be able to have some sense by the end of the month that the new cases are within the capacity of the hospital system because that is another element of all of this. separate document circulating in government and the last couple of days are suggesting that hospital capacity could very easily pretty quickly be overwhelmed, even if you

we re quickly be overwhelmed, even if you were to cancel a lot of nonessential procedures. in fact... this is the graphic you are talking about, isn't it? yes, there are a few variations of this. this is quite complicated because it is a lot of lines and dots for people sitting at home. there are a few variations of this that have been circulating within government. and i should say, it is on the bbc news website, so you can have another look at this if you have another look at this if you have got a tablet or your phone with you or you want to login to your computer and dig away at it. it does repay a detailed reading. computer and dig away at it. it does repay a detailed readingm computer and dig away at it. it does repay a detailed reading. it does, but what it effectively gets at is two points. 0ne but what it effectively gets at is two points. one is that there is no pa rt two points. one is that there is no part of england, however low the cases currently might be, that is immune from its hospital capacity being overwhelmed and in pretty short order unless something is done. the various tiers and colours that you can see there depend on whether additional capacity is built—in like the nightingale hospitals and research capacity, which is turning towards into intensive care units that can be

used for covid—19 patients. the bottom line with that graph and the various other variations of it circulating government is the fear that you have an incredibly grim scenario, where the situation is in hospital so bleak that someone potentially calling for an ambulance needing emergency assistance can't get it. that clearly something no one in government would ever want to see happen and is clearly an element of what is driving them towards the announcement we can expect later. he was also in with, for example, the nightingale hospitals is obviously an important part of what was used in the spring or at least prepared in the spring or at least prepared in the spring or at least prepared in the spring and ended up not being used in any great extent, but is presumably at least there and available to come back on stream. but presumably the things that ministers must worry about, as well as these overall modelling figures, is the added complication, which is when the staff for those health facilities themselves become ill with coronavirus and therefore not

only are themselves potentially in danger and only are themselves potentially in dangerand in only are themselves potentially in danger and in hospital and all the best of it, but then not available to help care for others in a situation? exactly, and we are at the beginning of the autumn and winter season. the clear suggestions from scientists is that whilst they remain optimistic about the prospect ofa remain optimistic about the prospect of a vaccine, there's nothing there yet and the whole process of a national roll—out of such a thing, as and when it does exist and is regarded as reliable, will take a very long time. so the period ahead as in the next few months is looking particularly bleak and therefore the nuclear option of a lockdown, which we know because ministers have been saying for weeks is the thing they wa nted saying for weeks is the thing they wanted to avoid at all costs, has now come about or will come about in the announcement from the prime minister shortly, simply because they have run out of better ideas. there are no other options are available short of this that can, in the short term, bring those numbers down, allow for instance the test and trace system, which isn't much use once you get a huge number of

cases, but is much more useful when they are contained. so if we can bring it down again it could potentially become a more useful tool. exactly, and in the meantime during the lockdown you could use that time to improve the capacity of it. this is scheduled to be a lockdown of one month. the question that will be put to the prime minister that in a news conference is what is this doesn't work? what if at the end of the month those figures are more in control, but still going on the wrong direction? exactly, and if you remember back in the spring when the original lockdown was announced at the timeframe was much shorter than it turned out to be. clearly, there was a difference in the spring because we we re a difference in the spring because we were going from an entirely normal life, no social distancing, there was a difference in the spring because we were going from an entirely normal life, no social distancing, very limited limitations on our day to be. clearly, there was a difference in the spring because we we re a difference in the spring because we were going from an entirely normal life, no social distancing, there are limited limitations on our data delay that we have become sadly used to in the last few months of salutary lockdown scenario. this time there have been mitigations and the easing of lockdown would we assume return to a situation where

there are still limitations in terms of social distancing and face coverings and all the rest of it. but of course we will no doubt be asking the question in 45 minutes about the what if question because of course there is the prospect as you head towards december and the modelling currently suggests that thatis modelling currently suggests that that is when the hospitalisation rate could be particularly high, but it ends up going a little further. just to bring you a bit of additional information i am just receiving from some sources as far as these meetings this afternoon have been concluding, it looks like on the whole business of household mixing in england, people will be permitted to interact outdoors, as it is put, with one person from outside of their household. the ban on mixing will apply to weddings and wedding ceremonies, and there is an acknowledgement that this will have an impact on planned remembrance sunday commemorations coming up, of course, ina sunday commemorations coming up, of course, in a couple of weeks' time. there will be advised that we shouldn't be travelling outside of our area unless we are doing so for work, caring, education or health

care. in short, it looks like a repeat of what we had in the spring, but with the caveat around educational establishments remaining open and, i think, as well, a desire that people can carry on working, from home, if possible, but going to work ina from home, if possible, but going to work in a workplace if needs be, and so in that sense perhaps won't feel as restrictive for people in england as restrictive for people in england as it did in the spring. and some good news there, that you have slipped in for single people, using that lovely old phrase, walking out together. walking out rather than indoors, they can go for a long, romantic walk. and for millions of people living on their own, that is a massive piece of news. chris, thank you very much, i know you will be back a bit later. and we'll bring you a special programme with that news conference from downing street later this afternoon. my colleague, reeta chakrabarti, will be here with live coverage from 4.30. we will bejoined we will be joined by bbc one as well. the downing street news conference expected to begin a 5pm,

but stay with us because you can never rely on the timing of those. no disrespect,, there is a lot going on, but stay with us, we don't want you to miss out. we will bring you all the latest news. we will also bring you some further news. we are actually getting some breaking news from france and ijust want actually getting some breaking news from france and i just want to actually getting some breaking news from france and ijust want to bring this to you now. this is being reported by the reuters news agency quoted the french interior ministry, a serious incident is under way this afternoon in lyons. security forces are on site. according to reuters, they have confirmed that an orthodox priest, don't know if that is greek or russian orthodox, but eastern christian priest has been injured in a shooting in lyons. the assailant has fled. reuters is reporting that the priest was fired on twice around 4pm local time, that would be about three pnr time, as he was closing the church and is being treated on

site for what is described as a life threatening injuries. we will bring you more on that shooting of a priest, who has life threatening injuries. we don't have any more details, but security forces are on the ground there and the pursuit of the ground there and the pursuit of the assailant, who has fled the scene, is ongoing. we will bring you more on that as soon as we have it. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has told scots not to travel south to england unless essential. writing on twitter, she said the government in edinburgh would contine to consider data on the spread of the virus in the coming days — and take account of any developments in england. 0ur scotland correspondent, alexandra mackenzie, has been giving me more details. nicola sturgeon sent out quite a lengthy message on twitter this morning in reaction to the discussions ongoing in london today. one of the things she did say on twitter is people should not be travelling to and from england at this stage, except for essential purposes. by essential purposes, the scottish government usually means

things like dental appointments, if you are caring for someone, if you are having to travel for work. so apart from these things, nicola sturgeon has said, "don't travel between scotland and england." the first minister also on twitter said, in her words, in regards to speculation about lockdown in england, "the "scottish government will also always take account "of any developments." now, as you know, boris is due to speak later today. if england does go into lockdown, the big question is what will scotland do next? there is sometimes a lot of talk about a four nations approach, but as nicola sturgeon also pointed out this morning, scotland does seem to be doing better than other parts of the uk at the moment because of tough restrictions that have been in place, particularly in the central belt. so she has said that things do seem to be

flattening out and the number of cases, the cases are not rising as much as they thought they might be. she also said that one of the things she would be thinking about would be financial support. and if scotland does remain in step with england, would that financial support only be available then? or if scotland takes a different position and possibly goes into lockdown at a later date, would financial support be available for scotland then? so i think there's a lot to think about for the scottish government. the eyes are very much on westminster today to see what they say later on. and alexandra, how much political consensus is there in scotland? because we are seeing less and less of it in england, and in the debates at westminster. how are the opposition parties at holyrood taking the sort of line, as you said, quite tough a few weeks earlier, that the snp government has pursued? haven't seen much reaction to what's going on today, but yes, as you said,

there has been an awful lot of discussion holyrood this week, discussion about the five tier system that scotland is due to move onto on monday. there will be some changes throughout the country. for much of the central belt that will remain the equivalent of tier 3, which is the highest anyone is in. no one is in tier 4 at the moment, which is more like lockdown. those changes are due to come in on monday, big changes on monday. but we will be thinking, well, is that going to change now, depending what comes out of westminster later today? that was alexander henderson talking to me from glasgow a short time ago. —— mike alexandra. the welsh government has said a two—week firebreak

there will still end on 9th november, regardless of a potential lockdown in england. ministers in cardiff meet tomorrow to finalise post—firebreak rules. first minister mark drakeford took to social media to reiterate that any downing street announcement, "will relate to england." he also said that wales is pursuing its own agenda on this question. latest figures show a further 1,301 new cases have been reported in wales and another 13 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus. northern ireland first minister arlene foster has said that the current tightened restrictions there will end, as planned, on the 13th of november. pubs and restaurants have been closed, and schools, which will re—open on monday, were closed for two weeks. a bbc news special with reeta chakra barti ahead of the prime minister's coronavirus

briefing at 5.00 shortly, but first sport and for a full round—up from the bbc sport centre, here's gavin ramchurn. good afternoon. the final weekend of the six nations is under way. after a long break due to coronavirus — with england facing italy at quarter to 5, whilst ireland can seal the title in paris later, with a bonus point win over france... not such a positive afternoon for the 2019 champions wales — despite alun wynjones earning a record 149th test cap. they led 7—6 at half time against scotland, but the scots fought back in llanelli. this try from stuart mcinally, and late stuart hogg penalty earned them a 14—10 victory. so nothing at stake really with that one, but everything to play for this afternoon. england, ireland and france all still in the hunt for glory. england are second in the table and play italy in rome in the next half hour. knowing a bonus point win will give them the best chance of another six nations crown. following that — it's top of the table ireland against france. by that point, both sides will know what's required to win the title.

england captain 0wen farrell says all they can do is concentrate on themselves. we need to go out there and put ourselves in the best place possible. come kick—off, first, and then we obviously need to be disciplined in the way that we play. 0bviously all of the... normally, all of the good stuff that everybody wants to see comes off the back of the hard work that goes on early doors, so we have got to make sure that we do the basics really well. manchester city are back into the top half of the premier league table after a 1—0 win over sheffield united in the lunchtime kick off. kyle walker's goal proving the difference, scoring with this long range effort on his 100th league appearance for city, against his boyhood club. sheffield united remain without a win this season — and in the relegation zone with just one point from their first seven games.

into the second half at turf moor and chelsea have the lead against burnley. hakim ziyech and kurt zouma with the goals. later, liverpool can go back to the top of the premier league, with a win over west ham. just two matches in the scottish premiership under way. dundee are 0—0 against ross county. and livingston 0—2 motherwell. all eyes at hampden park at 5 o'clock, for the first of the scottish cup semi—finals, the edinburgh derby between hearts and hibs. valtteri bottas will be on pole for the emilia romagna grand prix tomorrow. the finn was just less than a second quicker than mercedes team—mate lewis hamilton, with red bull's max verstappen third fastest. mercedes could win a seventh consecutive constructors' title tomorrow at imola — which is hosting it's first race since the 2006 san marino grand prix. great britain's women were held to a 1—1 draw by belgium before winning the shoot—out in their pro league clash in brussels. all square after the 4th quarter it went to a shoot—out. britain won it 3—1 with

tesss howard clinching victory. gb received two points with just the one for belgium. england captain heather knight smashed 83 from just 39 balls to help sydney thunder to victory over adelaide strikers in the women's big bash. knight hit three sixes and 11 fours to record her highest knock in the competition as sydney won by 58 runs to leave them top of the early standings. that's all the sport for now.

the prime minister is to announce a month—long lockdown in england as uk records its millionth case of covert. boris johnson records its millionth case of covert. borisjohnson will hold a case in the next half an hour. it comes after new scientific advice warns more than 4,000 people could die each day, unless tighter restrictions are brought in. nhs leaders urge ministers to act quickly. it is really important that the government moves quickly and does tough lockdowns as quickly as possible because otherwise the nhs won't have the capacity it needs. scotland's first minister,

nicola sturgeon, has issued