of course we all hope you can have a short one, but given the delays at the start it might last longer, so i cannot really say after four weeks for sure it will be lifted. it might go longer than that. i have because iam go longer than that. i have because i am delighted to be on the bbc, i'm just saying i don't want to keep talking about lockdown is. i am just hoping we can move to a post—covid chat. thank you very much. it is 5pm, you are watching bbc news. the prime minister is due to announce new lockdown measures in england. let's recap on what we know so far. the bbc understands the prime minister will announce a month—long national lockdown in england. nonessential retail and hospitality will be forced to close. schools and universities will be allowed to stay open. i'm going to take it to downing street, where we are waiting for this press conference to start. it had been thought that it would be

around now but we understand there is some delay, so we will of course be keeping an eye on what is going on in the briefing room in downing street and we will be crossing over there as soon as we possibly can. let's take a look at the measures in place in the devolved nations in the uk. wales' first minister mark drakeford said the firebreak there will end as planned and that his cabinet will meet on sunday to "discuss any potential border issues for wales in light of any announcement by number 10". scotland's new tiered system of restrictions will come into force on monday. first minister nicola sturgeon has issued new advice that people should not travel to or from england, except for essential purposes. in northern ireland, pubs and restaurants were closed for four weeks on 16th october, with the exception of takeaways and deliveries. schools were closed for two weeks. well, let's find out how businesses are reacting

to the prospect of a second national lockdown in england. i'm joined now by adam marshall, director—general of the british chambers of commerce. good afternoon to you. we are waiting for the news from downing street, but we have had quite a lot of the detail already. nonessential businesses will be forced to close again in england for probably up to again in england for probably up to a month. what is your reaction? well, there is no getting around the fa ct well, there is no getting around the fact that these new restrictions will be a devastating blow for a lot of businesses clear across england andindeed of businesses clear across england and indeed across the rest of the uk. companies have done everything in their power over the last few months to adapt and to work safely and of course to now hear that many of those businesses, whether in retail, travel, hospitality, and of course in the supply chains that keep all of those businesses going, to hear that they may have to close orface a huge hit to hear that they may have to close

or face a huge hit to to hear that they may have to close orface a huge hit to demand is extraordinarily disheartening and will be crushing for many. it's very difficult because we have not yet had the exact detail, but what sort of help would you be looking to from the government? well, as we said in a letter to the prime minister at just two weeks ago, the best point of departure is the furlough scheme as it existed injuly, the generosity level that it had then, when government was paying 80% of wages for those who were unable to work. we thought that was fair both to employers and employees, help them keep their businesses going. there is also going to need to be some additional support for businesses around cash flow, as well. they will have things like their rent coming due, their business rates coming due, vat, as well. and if companies are unable to operate and those bills are still landing on their doorstep, that will put many into an incredibly difficult situation indeed. the

support that is offered to businesses as restrictions are increased must be commensurate with those restrictions, critically important. so the furlough scheme is due to end today, october 31, to be replaced by the job support scheme. now businesses in tier 3 were given more help. would that be enough help if, as we expect, we go into a national lockdown? well, businesses in tier3, the national lockdown? well, businesses in tier 3, the employers will not have to contribute under the job support scheme, but of course the wages are at 67%. if you look back at the furlough scheme and its generosity back in july, at the furlough scheme and its generosity back injuly, it was at 80%. we think the government is going to have to move further and add more help back into the picture here to help companies preservejobs and livelihoods and also to preserve and livelihoods and also to preserve an element of demand in the economy, as well. we have to remember that all of these employees spend their wages in other businesses around the

economy and keep money moving around. if that is not happening we see further damage. so the level of support that is announced by the prime minister, any additional detail he is able to give this evening and that we hear over subsequent days will be absolutely critical for many businesses. it could be a question of survival or failure. are you by and large supportive of the government's strategy going into a national lockdown, but you fear, naturally, for the fate of businesses, or are you worried about the evidence on which it is taking these decisions? we set out a number of clear tests for the prime minister and the government. one was to set out very clearly what the evidence is for additional restrictions on businesses. we want to see that in the conference this evening and the detail subsequently. given so many businesses have done everything that they can and spend millions and millions of pounds to become covid

secure and keep welcoming their customers. the evidence is absolutely critical. so, too, is clarity for businesses, as well. we have seen with the different tiers that some businesses have been able to open in some areas, such as liverpool, and in lancashire next we re liverpool, and in lancashire next were the same type of business has not been able to operate. we cannot have that model. businesses must be able to understand what is going on here. i wonder how you feel about the way in which this news has come out. it is coming out in drips and drugs last night. you businesses have been extremely frustrated —— dribs and drabs. business has been frustrated to see so much information, from the press. what we need to see, and was businesses across the country are telling us, isa across the country are telling us, is a clear strategy articulated by the government that also includes an exit strategy, as well. how do we de—escalate, come out of these

restrictions? you had a previous contributor on earlier is that they did not want to be here in february and march talking about repeated lockdown. businesses feel exactly the same. you cannot simply turn them on and off like a light switch and expect that they will continue to function. so the stop start of all of this and briefing by media has to stop. we need clarity and we need honest communication from government. 0k. very good to talk to you. thank you so much. adam marshall, director—general of the british chambers of commerce. thank you so much. some news that has been sent in by our correspondent, our education editor, who says that the classroom teachers union, the national education union, is calling for schools to be closed in the event of any national lockdown in england. the university lecturers union, that also says that any lockdown should lead to all teachings moving online

stock she quotes the general secretary of the classroom teachers union, kevin courtney, who says it will be felt self—defeating for the toa will be felt self—defeating for the to a national lockdown whilst the role of schools is a major contributor to the role of —— spread of the virus. it says the latest figures from the office for national statistics estimate that 1% of primary schools... i beg your pardon, of primary pupils and 2% of secondary pupils have the virus. and there is an echo from the university and college union calling for all teaching to move online. its general secretary says that the health and safety of the country is being put at risk because of this government's insistence that universities must continue with in person teaching. so thatis continue with in person teaching. so that is news just in from our education editor.

we are going to talk to the lets talk now to dr alison pittard, who's the dean of the faculty of intensive care medicine. we are expecting this news conference from downing street. it has been delayed for a while but we are expecting a new national lockdown in england in response to the rise in cases and to the pressure on the nhs. i was wondering if you could just explain your experience of the icu where you work. how are things looking?” experience of the icu where you work. how are things looking? i am here to talk as the dean of the faculty so i can give you a national picture. we all know about what is happening in the hot spots. liverpool and the north west and the north—east, etc. where there are increasing numbers of patients with covid—19 who are coming to hospital

and needing our support and critical care. but at the same time, what we have all been trying to do, is to ensure that we can keep health care settings are safe so that patients, people feel safe to access the care that they need, and also that we can continue to undertake our planned and emergency services, so things like cancer surgery, and for people who need to undergo surveillance for things like chronic ill—health. what we are finding is that we are seeing increased numbers of admissions of patients with covid who then become critically ill and need to come to intensive care. and as our capacity reaches its limits, then that means we cannot continue the same level of our planned care. and so as covid increases in prevalence in the community, that is going to have an

impact on the balance of what we can do in hospitals, and unfortunately, u nless we do in hospitals, and unfortunately, unless we can reduce prevalence and transmission of covid, then that is going to have a negative impact on all that work we are desperately trying to continue. and do you see evidence of pressure on the capacity at the moment? absolutely. we heard in the media and across the country where there is excess pressure on systems. we know that there are areas where planned operations have had to be cancelled, other planned ca re had to be cancelled, other planned care is having to be cancelled, and thatis care is having to be cancelled, and that is the last thing that the nhs wa nts to that is the last thing that the nhs wants to do. we almost stopped all of our normal activity during the first wave and we have seen the consequences of that, and we really need to make sure that we don't have to do that again. and so the only way to do that is to reduce community prevalence and transmission. and anything that can be done to do that will be welcomed.

one of the big differences at this time is that we are going into winter, which is traditionally a difficult time for the nhs. it is, yes. one of the things we have seen isa yes. one of the things we have seen is a reduced incidence in seasonal flu and other illnesses that might occur overwinter. but of course we are still in the very early stages of the winter season. and who knows what is going to happen? all we can do is react and respond to what we are seeing at the moment, and if we don't get covid under control, then going into winter, having to deal with covid, to deal with seasonal flu and everything else is going to be extremely difficult. people will be extremely difficult. people will be wondering about the nightingale hospitals, because we know that three of them in england have recently been put back on alert. there is extra capacity there, isn't there? well, there is capacity in

terms of space, in terms of beds and in terms of equipment, but it is the same story that we had during the first wave, that we do not have more staff. you cannot just first wave, that we do not have more staff. you cannotjust create staff overnight. there is doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, and certainly in terms of critical care, it takes time to train people to be able to manage the critically ill patients. and one of the ways we managed in the first wave was to change the way that we deliver care, so die looting the highly specialised staff that we have and supplementing those with staff who don't normally work in critical care to make sure that we can provide safe ca re to make sure that we can provide safe care and deliver it as part of a team rather than individuals. but that has had a negative impact on staff in terms of particularly their mental health and well—being. so it is not just about the

mental health and well—being. so it is notjust about the nightingale hospitals, it is the staff, as well, and that is one of my concerns. that into this next wave and the fact it is going to last a lot longer than the first wave, that we really need to look after our staff. indeed. very good to talk to you. thank you so much. dean of the faculty of intensive care medicine. thank you so much for your time. thank you. chris mason is back to bring us up to date about the briefing. chris mason is back to bring us up to date about the briefingm chris mason is back to bring us up to date about the briefing. it won't happen anytime soon. originally we understood it would happen at 4pm this afternoon, then we were told it would be 5pm. that has slipped from 5pm. i would would be 5pm. that has slipped from 5pm. iwould not would be 5pm. that has slipped from 5pm. i would not expect it any time before 6pm, and it may well be a little after that. clearly within government there is a huge amount thatis government there is a huge amount that is changing at the moment, a lot of briefing going on, we know the cabinet met at 1:30pm this afternoon and scientists were involved in briefing cabinet ministers and plenty of questions,

some sceptical questions from some cabinet ministers. opposition leaders have also been briefed, given the gravity of this national announcement affecting the whole of england. but, actually hearing from the prime ministerfrom england. but, actually hearing from the prime minister from the chief scientific adviser to the government, patrick vallance, and professor chris whitty, the uk government's chief medical adviser, thatis government's chief medical adviser, that is what we are waiting for. we are going to have to wait a little longer than we originally anticipated. but we do know some of the detail. from several sources, we know know that when we do eventually hear from the prime minister, he will announce that, in england, from thursday, we understand, there will be a month long national lockdown and, in broad terms, it will be very similar to what happened in the spring save for one big, important caveat, and that is that educational institutions will remain open. but what it will mean is that nonessential retail, in

the jargon, in other words lots of shops other than supermarkets, will be closed. the hospitality sector will effectively be shut down, pubs, cafes a nd restau ra nts, will effectively be shut down, pubs, cafes and restaurants, save for those offering takeaway, and we will be encouraged again to stay at home. those who can't work from home will be allowed to go to work in a physical workplace but the encouragement will be to work from home if it is impossible and we will be encouraged to limit travel, certainly for recreational purposes if not for work. and all of this after we have had, for the last month or so, the government every single day in england being absolutely insistent that the better strategy was the opposite, was a regional, localapproach, strategy was the opposite, was a regional, local approach, this cheering system that was announced a couple of weeks ago. these tussles, public and politically awkward tussles between the government and metro males, like andrew burnham, and we source the keir starmer, the

labour leader, suggesting there should be a circuit breaker lockdown at the sage committee advocated as such, and the government decided against it. we saw wales go into the lockdown a week ago, other countries around europe doing variations in different flavours of lockdown, belgium, spain, italy, france, germany and ireland, now england are set to follow suit. so, in a sense, what has changed? the government has been being advised since late september that there should be some sort of circuit breaker, some form of national lockdown? what has changed is the data presented by scientific advisers in the last couple of days, in addition to the fa ct, couple of days, in addition to the fact, which the government has been acknowledging publicly for the last couple of weeks, the situation becoming more bleak. but the big thing that has changed is an examination of projections that the prime minister and the chancellor was shown yesterday. these projections vary quite significantly

in terms of her significant the death toll could become and how soon it could happen —— in terms of how. at all of the projections were significantly worse than what was described as the reasonably worst case scenario just a few weeks ago, with a far higher death toll and it happening far sooner than those projections are just happening far sooner than those projections arejust a happening far sooner than those projections are just a few weeks ago. in addition to that, another document circulating within government examined hospital capacity and what was quite striking about that is that we have been reporting in the last few weeks about the sort of patchwork around england of different levels of the virus in different places, and the tier system that was commensurate to that. when you look at hospital capacity, in some of the regions which currently might have relatively low number of cases, such is the acceleration in a number of cases, even in those regions, hospital capacity could be overcome within a few weeks, these projections suggest, unless

something radical was done. so it is those two additional bits of data on top of, frankly, the increasingly bleak picture we have been warned about the last couple of weeks that has led them to this position, where borisjohnson has has led them to this position, where boris johnson has had has led them to this position, where borisjohnson has had to do exactly the opposite of what he was advocating in the house of commons a matter of days ago, the kind of worst—case option, simply because it is the least worst option, as they see it, given the gravity of the numbers we are now looking at. and, yet, it is also going to leave some people absolutely furious, people on his own backbenches, possibly people who are in lower infection rates in parts of england, they will be asking what has changed? exactly, not least because we have had cabinet ministers within the last few days making that exact arguments, why have blanket policies for the whole of england when there are some places where the rates of the virus are considerably less than elsewhere? and, yes, there are those on the conservative backbenches who are irritated in terms of the

restrictions on liberties and also the huge impact on the economy. there are others, privately, on the conservative backbenches absolutely livid as what they see as the botched communication around all of this. journalists managed to ferret out a lot of these details into the newspapers and on the bbc this morning. that is the job of journalists, via sources, to establish that. the frustration on the back benches from some conservatives is, yes, this is a national crisis and we should have been hearing this first from the prime minister rather than effectively waiting for him to confirm the detail of what we have been reporting since late last night, so there is frustration about how it has been managed, frustration about where we have ended up. what is striking as some of the conservative backbenchers who have been sceptical as far as the imposition on liberties has been concerned do seem to recognise now that the data is going to force the prime minister to take pretty drastic action. steve baker,

conservative backbencher, has been into downing street, has been breached, seen the grass and spoken to the scientists and talk to us and acknowledged how difficult the situation is —— has been briefed and seen the graphs. so, yes, there will be concerns on the backbenches in terms of liberty and on the economy, and there is a hulking massive, significant concern but broadly it will be seen that there will be support in the commons for this to happen, with labour making the point ofa happen, with labour making the point of a variation of we told you so and we argued for this weeks ago. chris, many thanks, and we know you will be watching downing street and will be back here as soon as we know the briefing is about to start, chris mason, our political correspondent. sir david king now chairs the independent sage and he joins me now. thank you so much forjoining us. what do you think about where we

are? the government about to announce a new national lockdown in england, is this something which could have been avoided? no, i think, for various reasons, this lockdown is absolutely critically necessary , lockdown is absolutely critically necessary, although we all have to say that our lockdown is a very blunt instrument, but we are left with no other instrument in our hands and i am afraid we have to go into a lockdown again, but let me very quickly say this is what independent sage has been saying, it is what sage has been saying for over a month and if we had gone into a lockdown earlier, it would have been much easier to bring the number of cases down rapidly and that would have had much less impact on the economy and also, of course, on the death rate. and, yet, the government of course has to balance health and economy and people's own feelings about the liberty they should be

allowed and it has to take all of these things into account. there is a false dichotomy between economy and health and number of deaths. those countries that acted quickly in the first place, such as greece and germany and southeast asia and china, have had the lowest impact on their economies and the lowest impact on the number of deaths. it is very simple, if you allow the disease to spread, as we have now done for a second time, then the number of cases in the countryjust keeps going upwards at an exponential rate. that means it is doubling over a certain period and, at the moment, our disease rate is doubling every two weeks. if we had acted four weeks ago, we would have had substantially acted four weeks ago, we would have had su bsta ntially less acted four weeks ago, we would have had substantially less cases per day and are substantially less deaths, but, nevertheless, very much to be welcomed that we go into a lockdown

now and then what we need to be sure of, and this is what you just heard from devi sridhar, is that we need to make sure we have a fully functional, for the first time, a fully functional test, trace, isolate and support system in place, because that is the only way we have to get to an end strategy. this is a very sophisticated instrument. test, trace, isolate and support means you are isolating all of the people who have the disease from the rest of the population and, when you do that, the rest of us can go about our normal business, good for our health, good for our economy, so we have been faced with this really silly. dichotomy for a long time and ijust want silly. dichotomy for a long time and i just want to hammer that —— false dichotomy. then if what we are

hearing is this lockdown is going to be with schools open, our calculation on independent sage is, with schools open, it will take something like five to six weeks to bring the number of cases in the country down to 5,000, which is roughly where we were injuly this yearand, at roughly where we were injuly this year and, at that point, we should be able to have a test, trace, isolate and support system in place but we won't get it in place unless the government announces tonight what it is doing to create a much better test and trace and isolate the system. so i think, for me, that's a priority. otherwise, we will simply go from one lockdown to the next without managing to shift across to this much more sophisticated instrument. i have even heard people arguing that it is the older people and the people who are at risk from dying if they get

covid—19 who ought to separate. this is simply putting the whole thing the wrong way around and, by the way, that's an impossible objective, because many, many of us are a bit older, living close by with children, younger people and so on, so separate out, but let me stress the support side of test, trace, isolate and support. it is quite, absolutely necessary to see that a really high level of people who have got the disease but also who have beenin got the disease but also who have been in contact with people with the disease are fully isolated, and that is not going to happen unless we provide a support system with finance, with possible alternative accommodation. we need, for example, to requisition hotels to do that. all of this needs to be put in place by government and i think, as well, and this is critically important, we need to hand it over to local

directors of public health to operate the whole system. we need to engage local people such as gps and the 44 molecular virology labs in the 44 molecular virology labs in the test and trace system, so as we move forward, let's see that the lead on test, trace, isolate and support is given over to nhs england and taken support is given over to nhs england and ta ken away support is given over to nhs england and taken away from the companies that have so far not been able to deliver, and then see that we engage top tier local authorities and, of course, gps. you are a former chief scientific adviser, you have set up independent sage, this alternative to sage, if you like. have you had any to sage, if you like. have you had a ny co nta ct to sage, if you like. have you had any contact with government, have you managed to speak to them about what you say? no, we put our reports in to government and, no, we don't actually speak to them except of course, every friday, we have a public meeting, a very large number of people now regularly attend our

friday meetings and we are very happy to speak to anyone in government, but, really, the door has to be open at both ends for that discussion to take place. 0k. has to be open at both ends for that discussion to take place. ok. but sage and independent sage, over the last four to five weeks, have been singing from the same hymn sheet. in other words, there is really a good correlation between our position today and the position that sage is holding and, as i said earlier on, if we had gone into a lockdown four or five weeks if we had gone into a lockdown four orfive weeks ago, if we had gone into a lockdown four or five weeks ago, when we should have, and, by the way, there is no surprise about where we are now. i'm not going to agree with the comment that it all looks a lot worse than it looked a month ago. we were predicting very, very precisely where we are today and i'm afraid we are very where we are today and i'm afraid we are very confident in our predictions, for example, on death

rates because, well we have got, today, 360 new deaths being reported what we are sure of is that, in two weeks' time, that figure is going to be more like twice that and that is because the deaths follow what happened weeks ago and not today in terms of the number of new cases. 0k, terms of the number of new cases. ok, thank you very much indeed, sir david king. the prime minister is due to announce new lockdown measures in england. we are waiting for a briefing from downing street. let's recap on what we know so far. the bbc understands the prime minister will announce a month—long national lockdown in england. non—essential retail and hospitality will be forced to close. schools and universities will be allowed to stay open. dr chris smith is a virologist at the university of cambridge, hejoins me now.

good afternoon to you. good afternoon. do you think this was inevitable, given the data we've had? i've been watching what has been happening with other countries across europe because if you cast your mind back to march and april, they were ahead of the curve on terms of numbers then just as now. we have been watching what has been happening in france, germany, we saw belgium become embarrassingly, somewhat for the eu where the headquarters are, the country with the highest per capita rates of coronavirus across the world. so really it was only a matter of time before we saw ourselves going down a similar path again. it is a symptom of the season. the weather has got colder, we have had this return to work, return of schools, universities, the cold weather closing in. all of those factors come together and they make the transmission of virus cases much more likely. if you increase the likelihood and increased contact between people, you get my cases, and you then end up unfortunately

with more people