do you think this was afternoon. do you think this was inevitable, given the data we've had? i've been watching what has been happening with other countries gci’oss been happening with other countries across europe because if you cast your mind back to march and april, they were ahead of the curve on terms of numbers then just as now. we have been watching what has been happening in france, germany, we saw belgium become embarrassingly, somewhat for the eu where the headquarters are, the country with the highest per capita rates of coronavirus across the world. so really it was only a matter of time before we saw ourselves going down a similar path again. it is a symptom of the season. the weather has got colder, we have had this return to work, return of schools, universities, the cold weather closing in. all of those factors come together and they make the transmission of virus cases much more likely. if you increase the likelihood and increased contact between people, you get my cases, and you then end up unfortunately

with more people trickling into hospital and ultimately if you are not careful you end up with a rush into hospital and they are trying to avoid that. we were hearing yesterday that the increase in cases in europe has been attributed to an outbreak in spain from a new strain of the virus. is there any indication that has happened here? people are watching this very closely. the coronavirus, unlike other viruses that cause seasonal outbreaks, of course the flu is the one we are most familiar with, coronavirus change only very slowly. people have been monitoring the rate at which this new coronavirus has mutated or evolved since the outbreak began in china injanuary. it changes only very slowly. out of the genetic code of about 30,000 genetic matters, it has made only about two changes per month across the entire 30,000 letters of its code. that is a pretty slow rate of mutation but we have seen some changes that do appear to crop up more commonly than you would expect

at random. and so the virus is definitely evolving, as all viruses do. that it is very early to say that one particular strain is going to dominate or do one particular thing. i don't think we are expecting a sudden shift in the virus in that respect, but it is certainly something people are monitoring because all viruses mutate, all viruses evolve and this is no exception. interesting. what does that mean in the race to find the vaccine? most scientists agree that the changes we have seen so far, notwithstanding the fact they have been small and it is not changing very fast, they haven't effected the antigenicity of the virus, have not affected its appearance to the immune system very much. what that means is the way in which we will vaccinate against it, and assuming the vaccine candidates out there, which are in phase three trials now, quite a few of them which gives us reason to be optimistic that we will get a vaccine, it doesn't appear that

changes in the appearance of the virus would in any way undermine the effectiveness of those vaccines at this stage. that does happen with other viruses but this one, it is happening, and changing only so slowly we don't think it will make a big difference to the way in which a vaccine will protect a person, at least not at this stage. vaccine will protect a person, at least not at this stagelj vaccine will protect a person, at least not at this stage. i wonder if ican bring least not at this stage. i wonder if i can bring you back to the announcement we are expecting, of a national lockdown in england. does this make sense for those areas of england where the prevalence of the virus is low? this was the argument originally set out by the prime minister when the tier system was unveiled, this question was put to him. why is it you have other countries ushering in new lockdown is and here in the uk we are not? i think robert peston put the point of him, saying the numbers we are seeing today are equivalent to the numbers we reported back in march and april when the country went into lockdown. why is this time any different? the argument put forward

was that, unlike back in march and april, the distribution of cases was very patchy. now we have some hot spots and some areas much lower and therefore it did not make sense, two in the prime minister's word, closed and cornwall to prevent an outbreak in manchester. but what is actually similarto in manchester. but what is actually similar to march in manchester. but what is actually similarto march and in manchester. but what is actually similar to march and april is that the rate of change across the country is high everywhere, even though the overall number of cases is now lower. i think what may have tipped the balance is anticipating where this will lead in a few weeks and with an eye on christmas, as well, and hopefully saving the christmas season. it makes sense to act now, more universally, perhaps thanit act now, more universally, perhaps than it did. although i know that most people's minds, they would prefer not to be having to go down this path. none of us would. very good to talk to you, as always. chris smith, virologist at the university of cambridge. thank you. we are waiting for a press briefing

from downing street on a prime minister announcement, expecting that england is to go into lockdown for a month. that press conference has been delayed. we were expecting it at 5pm. we are told there is a delay. we are watching things very closely in downing street and as soon as we see any sign of movement that we will be going straight over there. we are nowjoined by professor neil ferguson, an epidemiologist at imperial college london, who — in march — predicted that up to 500,000 britons could die from covid—i9, which led to the government enforcing a nationwide lockdown. good afternoon to you. thank you so much forjoining us. you are modelling led to the original lockdown and what is your reaction to the fact we seem to be heading now for a second national lockdown? i also at that time suggested we might have to go into lockdown more

than once, that if we relaxed measures that transmission would research. u nfortu nately measures that transmission would research. unfortunately that is what we've seen this autumn with schools and shops reopening. whilst the tier 3. and shops reopening. whilst the tier 3, tier2 and shops reopening. whilst the tier 3, tier 2 measures are having some effect of slowing the spread it does not seem to be enough and therefore if we want to get what i now very high infection levels down we need to impose my measures, particularly heading to christmas. should this have been done earlier? we know the scientific advisory group was talking from september 22, 21st about looking down earlier. talking from september 22, 21st about looking down earlierlj talking from september 22, 21st about looking down earlier. i think it isa about looking down earlier. i think it is a difficult set of questions because there is an economic impact to all of these measures and business is already suffering. i think there was a justifiable reason to wait a little, to see whether the tiered measures being introduced

would have controlled levels. it doesn't appear that has been the effect. they are slowing infection but not causing case numbers to drop, which is what we really need at the moment. you think it was understandable and justifiable for the government to try the tiered localised measures first?” understand the reasons for doing so. we are epidemiologists, we study disease trends, suggest things which might bring infection levels are down. but at the end of the day there is a balancing act between introducing measures which we think will work effectively but at huge cost, and balancing the impact on the economy. we learned yesterday that on october eight, the scientific advisory group was saying that the projection now exceeded their worst case scenario, so that was three weeks ago. should the government have acted sooner?” think there have been a lot of

discussions on government and obviously we are seeing areas being escalated. of course we are talking about only two or three weeks ago with the introduction of the tiered system, which the government hoped would bring infection is under control. there was always some question as to whether tier 3 measures were insufficient in those hotspot areas to slowing and reversing infection levels. that has proved not to be the case.” reversing infection levels. that has proved not to be the case. i don't know if it is possible for you to a nswer know if it is possible for you to answer this, but can you quantify what difference it would have made if lockdown had been brought in earlier? we can quantify, yes, but it is an important consideration that all lockdown does is reduce infection levels for the period of time it is in force. if we think about where we are going to end up on christmas eve, whether we have a lockdown on, let's say, the

beginning of october or the beginning of october or the beginning of october or the beginning of november and it only lasts for a month, you actually end up lasts for a month, you actually end up in the same place as you would have done at the end of december. lockdown is are effective when they are in force. they reverse infections by a certain amount but then once you release them, infection levels will start going up again. the really important question is, what is going to follow this lockdown? what set of measures will be put in place that allow some economic activity but do not allow virus levels to spike as we approach christmas? if those measures are put in place, is four weeks in your opinion sufficient? it is very difficult to say at the current time. the measures which are being considered are basically similar to march with the big exception that schools and universities are open. and so back in march we got to a

stage where infection levels were roughly halving every week. a little bit more than that. we are unlikely to reach that level of decrease now that over a four—week period we could see a decrease anywhere from 20% to 80% and it is very difficult at the moment, without actually living through it and recording the data, to understand where we will end up at the end of it. that is a question which, you know, lots of scientists will be trying to address in the coming weeks that cannot be a nswered in the coming weeks that cannot be answered now. i notice you did mention, you referenced christmas. might people be able to hope for a christmas that is nearly normal?” very much hope so. personally, as well. i think it will not be fully normal but i think we would all like

to be in the position where we can allow larger groups of people to mingle, to come together for the celebration, if only for a few days. 0k. celebration, if only for a few days. ok. thank you so much for your time. professor neil ferguson from imperial college london. thank you so imperial college london. thank you so much. kevin courtney is in east london and is the general secretary of the national education union. good afternoon to you. we heard a little earlier from our education editor that you are calling for a school is to be closed in event of a national lockdown in england. we are expecting a national lockdown but why do you want that to happen? well, if the prime minister calls for a national lockdown of around four weeks, which is what we are hearing, we don't think it should be a half measure. to have the maximum effect we think schools should be pa rt effect we think schools should be part of that closure. we have been

looking at data from the office for national statistics which shows that the biggest section, the biggest growth rate, is amongst secondary school pupils, where, according to the ons, our analysis of their figures, cases have increased 50 times since september. far higher than any other age group. and so to get the maximum effect of the lockdown it would be sensible to include schools in it. we all want children to be at school, but we also know that if we just take half measure after half measure we end up with bigger and more serious lockdown is, so we think the government should include schools in this period of lockdown, that takes us back to march. we think schools should be open for vulnerable children and children of key workers. and we get the cases falling and we hope the government then uses that time to dramatically improve test, track, trace. we also think that, at the end of that, secondary schools at least should be ona

secondary schools at least should be on a rota basis. children in school learning physically at one week, at home, following their lessons at home, following their lessons at home the second week. so teachers in school the whole time, and support staff. teachers and support staff in school the whole time but children at school half the time. we think, according to sage, that could have an effect as big as closing the hall of hospitality. we think that is a sensible measure, a balanced measure for the government to look at. we certainly heard during the first lockdown in the spring that there was a very variable pattern of schools providing work for pupils. pupils were off school for five months. some of them were well catered for and some of them very much were not a. absolutely. we think we have learnt a lot. we know there are a sixth form college is currently running on a rota basis. year 12 is currently running on a rota basis. yeari2 is in currently running on a rota basis. year 12 is in one week, year 13 the next. the teacher is in the year 12

class physically, then they go to the room in year 13 and teach remotely. year 13 is then taught every lesson and so that seems to be working in a sixth form colleges. that model, and another mother where half the alphabet are in. half the class i physically taught and the other half are watching remotely and being engaged remotely and the children swap over time by time. that seems to be working in a sixth form colleges where we are aware of that working. children are registering every morning as normal, and there is, from doing that, and impact on the r rate. according to sage's estimate it is as big as closing the whole of hospitality. in secondary schools it doesn't have a big impact on the economy. lots of secondary children could be at home on their own without their parents being there. we are calling for all schools to be in the national lockdown to avoid another half measure which will just

lockdown to avoid another half measure which willjust need to be repeated. to have skills in this lockdown now, use that as time to get dressed during a protest, track, trace organised properly and have skills out and that could be an opportunity to ensure schools are still learning but skills can be a contribution to suppressing the virus. are you drawing a distinction between primary schools and secondary skills because the evidence suggests because young —— that young children do not suffer badly by and large from the virus and are not great transmitters. we are certainly not drawing a distinction between primary and secondary schools, we think the government should not resort to half measures, it should close everything down to try and get the cases down... but, why? sorry to interrupt, but if primary school children are less likely to get it and less likely to transmit, why should they not go to school? the data from the ons suggests that i%

of primary children are carrying the virus, 2% in secondary school children and secondary school children, the rate there is going to exceed university students, it looks like, by the end of next week. so these are high rates and we are not talking here about threats to the children, because even children in secondary school, according to all of our understandings, are not badly affected by the virus, but the point is that these children live in families and live in communities. we are looking at the ons data, we are saying that people who are 25 years, 30 years older than secondary pupils, their parents, the rates are higher there and we suspect that is coming from secondary pupils. this 50 times increase in the rate in secondary pupil since september should be alarming, i think, secondary pupil since september should be alarming, ithink, to secondary pupil since september should be alarming, i think, to all of us and we have to find a way of educating children while not having the rates growing at such a rate. if we got to a place where we could

have rotors, then half the children wouldn't be travelling to school every week. the schools would have half the number of children in them but the children would be being taught every lesson and i think... we think that is a sensible compromise which gets children learning and suppresses the virus. so you would then be catering for them educationally, but what about them educationally, but what about the society that they need, the community, the company? what about young people's mental health?” think the four—week closure is going to be difficult for everyone and we know it's difficult for the economy, we know it's difficult all round, and that is why we are saying don't doa and that is why we are saying don't do a half measure, which means you just have to come back to it again. better to suck it up and like jacinda ardern said in new zealand, go hard and go early. our proposal on rotors, at the end of this lockdown period, we think would get over some of those mental health

questions —— rotas. they are very real, because children would be in school half the time and would be being taught all of the time. i think rishi sunak should be interested in that, because it is a measure which suppresses the virus, we think, as much as closing the whole of hospitality but may not have that degree of effect on the economy, so we think that is very worthwhile, the government looking at and getting sage to look at that and model around that. 0k, very good to talk to you, thank you so much, kevin courtney, general secretary of the national education union. the conservative mp steve baker has said the prime minister has got a very difficult choices to make over the next few days. mister baker was speaking outside downing street following a briefing with scientists. today, what i have had is the opportunity to take a team into downing street, there were three scientists, myself, a data a nalyst. three scientists, myself, a data analyst. we have had an amazing

opportunity to robustly scrutinise the arguments, the data, the forecasts of where we are going and what i would say to people is the prime minister has got very, very difficult choices to make and i would encourage all members of the public and all members of parliament to listen extremely carefully to what the prime minister says today and over the coming days. i think my colleagues, like me, need to cast their minds forwards several weeks and think what might happen to the nhs, but that won't make any sense to them until they have heard from the prime minister, until they have had some briefings. i'm expecting them to see some of the data i've been looking at today, i'm expecting that to be shown to members of parliament and i hope they reflect very carefully on what it will mean for their constituents as we go forward. conservative mp steve baker. chris mason is back with me, we have been waiting for this press conference from downing street for quite a while, any information? conference from downing street for quite a while, any information7m was scheduled for lipm, pushed back to 5pm and then we were told it was from 5pm, which hinted at the

prospect of a minimal delay and it is now looking like it will be at around, andi is now looking like it will be at around, and i am underlining the around, and i am underlining the around, 6:30pm, so it looks like within the next a0 minutes or so but, given that delay has not exactly been unprecedented this afternoon, there is at least the scope that it might be delayed yet again. what are we going to hear from the prime minister? we will hear that, from thursday this week until the 2nd of december, so almost a calendar month, there will be a lockdown across england, with nonessential shops closing, so that is most shops. supermarkets remaining open. the hospitality sector being told to close, so restau ra nts, pu bs sector being told to close, so restaurants, pubs and cafes, except those that can offer a takeaway service. people will only be able to meet one person outside from outside their household, but that is an important detail for the millions of people living alone, they will be able to see people outside during this period starting on a couple of days and, crucially, as you were

reflecting on your conversation with kevin courtney, schools, colleges and universities remaining open, even though there are those within the teaching unions making the argument that they should close. i will bring you one detail about the process via which we have found out what is happening, because for those of us who have been watching the conversation over the last hour or so will see the whole process has been delayed. they will also be conscious that there is the oddity that we are talking about what the prime minister is going to announce before the prime minister announces it and there are some who might reasonably ask why didn't we hear that from the prime minister first? it is thejob that from the prime minister first? it is the job ofjournalist to find out what is going on in government, thatis out what is going on in government, that is what you will have read in the newspapers this morning things that hinted at where we are going and have heard it on the bbc news as well. the prime minister has written to all conservative mps to reflect on their frustration at how this has been communicated, given that we are ina been communicated, given that we are in a national crisis and some might have hoped that the first you would have hoped that the first you would have heard about this was from the prime minister, rather than from

others. we can bring you some extracts from the e—mail that was sent to conservative mps by boris johnson. he says, folks, so sorry that you had to hear about all of this from the newspapers, let me assure you this was not a leak from assure you this was not a leak from a number ten briefing and, indeed, we have launched an inquiry to try and catch the culprit. leak enquiries, as you know, they happen quite often in whitehall and more often than not they do not find the culprit. it goes on to say, the prime minister tells his mps, that he had hoped to make this announcement in parliament on monday but, given the reporting in the newspapers and elsewhere, he will now be doing this news conference this evening. i suppose 6:30pm does count as this evening. he then says that downing street will be making all of the data available to conservative mps to try and talk them through what we will be shown in this news conference coming up in the next hour or so, and he is doing what he is doing, he says in this memo to his colleagues, "because we believe it is in the best interests of the country and to ensure that

the nhs is not overwhelmed in a way that could cost many thousands of lives. there is a clear way out of this with better medication and rapid testing and the genuine prospect of a vaccine. our country will recover well, but i'm afraid there are no easy short—term options." and he signs it, "best, boris." so an insight to the prime minister's thinking and an insight into how he is having to manage the frustration and anger in some quarters and conservative backbenchers. i am conscious that all of that does sound like process rather than actually what really matters, but it is the process that leads to the outcome that the prime minister will announce and offers you some explanation as to why we spent some of the day saying this news co nfe re nce spent some of the day saying this news conference would happen at apm, some of the day saying it would be 5pm and we are now saying it will probably happen at roughly 6:30pm. and process is important, isn't it, because it is —— if it is not handled properly, it may feed into a perception that the government is just not as on top of this as it

should be. yes, and there has been frustration from supporters of the government on the conservative backbenchers who want to see the prime minister succeed and you speak to the labour party, they say they wa nt to the labour party, they say they want the prime minister to succeed ina want the prime minister to succeed in a national crisis, why wouldn't they? but there has been frustration from conservative backbenchers who are from conservative backbenchers who a re often from conservative backbenchers who are often sent out to defend the government line, but they will do that with gusto because they are loyal to the government and, if you area loyal to the government and, if you are a conservative mp, that is your natural inclination, only to discover there are briefings going on at the same time that lead the government to change its mind. clearly, from the government's perspective, this is a rapidly changing situation with new data being presented every day. what has clearly changed minds in downing street in the last 2a—hour is, in a picture that was already looking increasingly bleak, and we knew that because ministers were articulating that concern, is two things. one is a series of projections from a range of scientific advisers, all of which we re of scientific advisers, all of which were pointing, even when you build in the margin of error that these

projections inevitably include, all of which were pointing towards a spike in cases which will be much higher and much sooner than what was known as the reasonable worst case scenario, that was the basis of the government'sjudgments scenario, that was the basis of the government's judgments over the last couple of weeks. presented with that, alongside additional data that suggested that hospital capacity would very quickly be overwhelmed, evenin would very quickly be overwhelmed, even in areas of the country where rates of the virus might be declining rapidly but are currently quite low, has forced the government to ta ke quite low, has forced the government to take what it has been saying until, well, literally today was the thing it wanted to avoid. it felt its regional approach was more sensible, got the balance right between lives, liberties and livelihoods, presented with this data by the scientist in the last 2a—hours, they have been left with no option but to go for the nuclear option, the very thing they didn't wa nt to option, the very thing they didn't want to do. i have been talking to a string of experts this afternoon who say lockdown, fine, they will commit

but that in itself is not enough, there has to be something else to the strategy. yes, and there is a lwa ys the strategy. yes, and there is always the concern that the lockdown doesn't solve anything, it merely delays things from happening. clearly, if you are delaying the prospect of people getting the virus and delaying the prospect of some people being in hospital and bluntly postponing the potential that some people could die, and postponing it to the point where you have medication and vaccines that could prevent it from happening, clearly thatis prevent it from happening, clearly that is a strategy worth pursuing but there will inevitably be questions in this news conference about what do you do at the end of this period, particularly given that, in the spring, there was talk ofa that, in the spring, there was talk of a lockdown lasting for a handful of a lockdown lasting for a handful of weeks and it lasted much longer. chris, thank you very much indeed. now it's time for a look at the weather. hello, some turbulent weather across the uk this weekend, with torrential rain and gales, though strong winds really whipping up the waves across southern and western coasts and in

some, an excess of 25 millimetres of rain, well overan inch, in some, an excess of 25 millimetres of rain, well over an inch, in places. for others, the rain has been clearing in places, and some respite from the rain for a time because there is more in the forecast as we head into sunday, coupled with further gales, a number of met office weather warnings in place and you can find all details on the website. the wet and windy weather has come courtesy of storm aiden, pulling away northwards as we head through the night but waiting in the wings is another area of low pressure and a frontal system pushing further rain eastwards. initially into northern ireland and then after something drier for the rest of the uk, more rain pushes into western scotland, the western side of england and parts of wales and transfers eastwards as the night wears on. still some gusty winds, not as strong as they have been in places but they will strengthen through tomorrow, particularly across the western side of scotland. temperatures not much lower than seven or eight celsius across the northern half of the uk, 8—ii further south. sunday, we have this area of low pressure to deal with.

notice on the southern flank how closely isobars are together and that will bring some very strong winds across western scotland. still another wet and windy day for many, that rain still on the way for northern ireland but clearfor that rain still on the way for northern ireland but clear for most through the morning, leaving spells of sunshine and a scattering of showers before more rain starts to pile on from the west, likely to be most persistent across the northern parts of england, northern ireland, wales, the midlands and again some gusty winds, particularly for western coasts and especially so western coasts and especially so western scotland, where it will likely exceed 70 mph. temperature —wise, io—ia across the northern half of the uk and up to 17 further south and we keep the rain going through tomorrow evening across the northern half of england into the midlands and wales, likely to see some flooding here and again we have those warnings in case from the dash place from the met office. the weekend weather continues into monday for some, still wet, blustery and if not windy day and the rain sta rts and if not windy day and the rain starts to ease on tuesday, as does the win. then high pressure takes

charge, so as we head through wednesday and the latter half of the week, it looks drier, less windy but it will be colder, particularly overnight. anyone

borisjohnson is set to announce a second national lockdown for england. new restrictions expected to last until december with schools and universities exempt. the latest scientific advice shows the second wave is set to be more deadly than expected in further measures are imposed. it's really clear that if we don't take action now we will see those hospitalisations and deaths going up ina hospitalisations and deaths going up in a concerning wave. it comes as the total number of uk cases since the pandemic began passes i cases since the pandemic began passesi million. also tonight bond. james bond. sir sean connery, the very first screen james bond, has died at the age of 90.