borisjohnson is set to announce a second national lockdown for england. new restrictions expected to last until december with schools and universities exempt. the latest scientific advice shows the second wave is set to be more deadly than expected in further measures are imposed. it's really clear that if we don't take action now we will see those hospitalisations and deaths going up ina hospitalisations and deaths going up in a concerning wave. it comes as the total number of uk cases since the pandemic began passes 1 cases since the pandemic began passesi million. also tonight bond. james bond. sir sean connery, the very first screen james bond, has died at the age of 90.

good evening and welcome to the bbc news app six. borisjohnson is expected to announce that from thursday there will be a new month long lockdown across england that will last until the 2nd of december. sources have told the bbc that restau ra nts a nd sources have told the bbc that restaurants and pubs will be closed but take a ways and deliveries will be allowed. all non—essential retail will also close but supermarkets are to stay open. households will not be allowed to mix inside except for child care and otherforms allowed to mix inside except for child care and other forms of support. unlike the first lockdown, schools, colleges and universities would stay open while travel will be discouraged except for work. misery. the prime minister's own

restriction of what a return to lockdown would feel like. but the instruction on its way again for the country to close its doors, after warnings of a second deadly wave of the virus from the government's own scientists. we expect the prime minister tonight to aid people in england again to stay at home, to close buys and restau ra nts stay at home, to close buys and restaurants from thursday for a month. but this time, schools, colleges and universities will be allowed to stay open, alongside essential shops. it is the last thing the government wanted to do but this is what confronted the prime minister yesterday. projections from several groups of scientists are seen by the bbc of the number of people who could die each day if nothing changes. they vary, and there are big margins of error. at one model suggests well over a peak of 4000 daily deaths. all of the projections are more serious than the current worst case scenario, shown here in black, and potentially dwarf the first wave in spring. shown here in blue as a comparison. there are fears of the

implications of that to the entire health service. this document suggests that within ten days capacity in the english nhs will be full in some parts of the country, and as the weeks progress, even if the nightingale hospitals are all reopened and non—urgent care cancelled, the nhs will not be able to a cce pt cancelled, the nhs will not be able to accept any more patients by christmas week. because any extra measures will take time to make a difference to the disease, the window to act is now for the majority of the country. the prime minister cannot say he was not warned. the opposition, some of his own ministers, and some of his own advisers are pushing for a limited lockdown many weeks ago now. he chose instead to hold out under pressure from the treasury and tory backbenchers, choosing instead to try to keep the disease at bay with a patchwork effect, different regulations in different parts of the country, in an effort to try to guide the economy, too. that judgment now looks like it was a

political accident waiting to happen. there was always a risk this could happen again. that does not make the reality any less painful for the public or at less politically problematic for a prime minister who has spent weeks resisting. he is now set to tell england at least once again live life closed doors. laura is with me now. we are still waiting to hear from laura is with me now. we are still waiting to hearfrom borisjohnson, but from what we do know this is a big change of heart from him. but from what we do know this is a big change of heart from himm but from what we do know this is a big change of heart from him. it is and we shouldn't make bones about it. the prime minister has shown time and again how reluctant he was to make this decision. he has resisted this time and again despite calls from political opponents and some of his own advisers. he has been trying to balance for the last couple of months those calls to act more swiftly to get the breaks on the disease with demands from business, parts of his own party, who have said this isn'tjust about health. that is extremely important but it is also about the economy, protecting people's jobs, and but it is also about the economy, protecting people'sjobs, and the

impact of the services in the nhs that others rely on. that is why he has registered a shutdown —— resisted a shutdown like this. while there is a sense of deja vu there are important differences. schools, universities will stay open. that is very different to march and april for millions of families. at the other important distance to lineker difference is it is not clear what other parts of the uk, scotland, wales, northern ireland, will follow the lead of england. that could leave us in a very difficult situation as a country. lots of complexities that they were not in march and april and early days of lockdown. the government clearly hear it does leave themselves very opening to the accusations that people told them he will not listen and he has been dragged and forced to act in the end into a position where he doesn't have a choice. how is this going to go down with the prime minister's backbenchers who

have been resisting this? there has been a lot of unhappiness. we have heard privately through the day from politicians, including some senior mps, who are unhappy about how this has been handled. really unhappy about how it has emerged. there is a sense of downing street doing like this, the press conference tonight has been delayed. there is unhappiness that the political handling of it. but i think clearly the way the numbers are moving, the lea ked the way the numbers are moving, the leaked documents we have seen here at the bbc that show what the government now believe the disease could look like injust a matter of weeks if nothing is done. i think that may in the coming days change the balance of opinion over whether oi’ the balance of opinion over whether or not boris johnson the balance of opinion over whether or not borisjohnson had no choice but the do not forget there has to be about this time. back in early spring the governmentjust did this, carried on, a huge degree of political consensus, it is a much scratchy, difficult atmosphere for the prime minister this time round. thank you. so, what more do we know about the reasons for this move by the government?

our health correspondent, katharine da costa, has been looking at the statistics. many still exhausted. some still traumatised. nhs staff know what's to come. they are better prepared than in the spring with my ppe treatment and better understanding of the virus. but this time hospitals are trying to keep other services running whilst seeing rising numbers of covid patients. in april they were nearly 20,000 patients with coronavirus in hospital across the uk. that dropped over the summer but numbers have climbed to nearly 11,000, and with hospital admissions currently doubling roughly every fortnight, hospital leaders are worried. we have been saying, and we have been saying it for about three or four weeks, that it is really important to the government moves quickly and does tough lockdown is as quickly as possible because otherwise the nhs will not have the capacity it needs. the latest estimates show even with the topic here three restrictions in

parts of england, the epidemic is still growing with between 50 and 100,000 new infections every day. it is rising rapidly in the south. health officials want more hospital admissions and deaths will follow. it is all part of the data that has prompted a national lockdown. we know there is economic damage, we know there is economic damage, we know there is damage to people's well—being and mental health of a long—term lockdown, but some kind of short, maybe three to four week national strategy to bring incidents down, allow time for test and strays to get where it needs to be, and hopefully that will enable us to maybe relax a little bit over the winter period, over the christmas period and protect the nhs. locking down now will bring the virus under control. to get through the winter and buy some time to develop mass testing, new treatments and an effective vaccine. the latest government figures show there were 21,915 new coronavirus infections recorded in the latest 24—hour period.

there have now been more than a million cases of coronavirus in the uk. the average number of new cases reported per day in the last week is 22,522. and 326 deaths were reported — that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. it means, on average, in the past week, 259 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 46,555. our health editor hugh pym is with me. we have now had more than1 million cases of coronavirus in the uk. that isa cases of coronavirus in the uk. that is a sobering figure. yes, and even more so when you think that has doubled injust more so when you think that has doubled in just a more so when you think that has doubled injust a month. looking back to the end of august it was about 1000 daily reported cases each day in the uk. it is now more than 20,000. thatjust shows you how

things have escalated. it really seems to start with people coming back from holidays, school pupils and students getting back to go to where their education was. many people said that was likely to happen and as we have been hearing government advisers are due to say late in september that it was escalating beyond what they were expecting and that action was needed. that debate will continue. this lockdown in england will aim to suppress those cases and bring them down. of course there are a lot more than those once i had just mentioned because they include people who have gone to be testing, but many more out there do not know they have got it and don't have symptoms, according to surveys. but of course, sadly, there are people who have already got the virus who will become infected so seriously they will end up in hospital, and some of them, tragically, will not survive. we already know that. that will continue to happen even during this month, because that is what is there in the trajectories the experts have

talked about. more than 200 deaths per day, could well get to 500. the hope is it will bring the virus down, allow the test and trace system to work more effectively, certainly in england, in the weeks after the lockdown, assuming it is being eased. that is a big ask of a test and trace system that has not performed particularly efficiently in recent weeks. one thing i should say, hospital treatment of those with covid—19 has become more effective as doctors have learnt more about the virus, more people are surviving and having gone into intensive care, but certainly the nhs is going to be very busy in the weeks ahead. thank you very much. the prospect of a new national lockdown comes on the final day of the treasury's furlough scheme, which has subsidised the wages of up to nine and a half million employees. the less generousjob support scheme replaces it and business leaders are warning that much more financial help will be needed from the government in the months ahead. our business correspondent

katy austin reports. today was a big date in businesses' diaries because the furlough scheme is closing. this lighting firm will use its replacement, the job support scheme. aimed at keeping workers in theirjobs on reduced hours, it is less generous. the government will pay 62% of hours they're not working and the employer 5%. we used to have 85 staff working in the two warehouses. we think we've only got enough work for about 25 butjss means we can actually keep 45 staff on, working part—time, which means that there's a different version for firms forced to close by law because of restrictions. these schemes and other extended support were announced before a new lockdown was on the cards. my heart sank because it is devastating news for business. the boss of one hotel group told me a further support package would be needed if there's a further england—wide lockdown. the grants need to be reviewed.

the furlough scheme really needs to be back to where it was in march, where they were covering 80% of our staff's wages. we really need that vat and business rate relief extended for hospitality to come out of this crisis and recover over the number of years it's going to take to repay all the debt. it is unsettling news, too, for this london beauty salon. we had just started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. and the fact that we may have to lock down and close for however long is a real concern to us. we still have to pay rent. i wasn't given a rent period, a holiday period for rent. the british retail consortium says no shops should have to close. the british retail consortium says no shops should have to closem would be a disasterfor all of no shops should have to closem would be a disaster for all of us as customers in the lead up to christmas in parts of the retail industry was forced to close as part of the day ‘s announcement. £1.6

billion a week of retail sales were lost in april, may and june and that would be an even biggerfigure, with the consequences forjobs. business groups are calling for more support. the question is whether that support will be forthcoming from the chancellor and how it would be paid for. katy austin, bbc news. up to now, the government has been committed to its three—tier system. bradford was due to go into the highest tier on monday. luxmy gopal is there. tight restrictions are nothing new in this part of the country, it is three months since parts of the country, including bradford, were put into a local lockdown, reflecting the high infection rates in this area. bradford is in the top 20 in england and the rates are continuing to rise and, from monday, the 2.3 million people across west yorkshire will be moved into tier 3 and some businesses have told me

that those restrictions could push their livelihoods to the brink, let alone this new prospect of an england wide full lockdown. after months of uncertainty and different rules to get their heads around, business owners now face yet another change. the more i think about it, it's like writing a novel without having any ending to it. you try your best to survive, you do what you have to do. unfortunately, we have some very mixed guidelines and this is where confusion is, because i don't think business know really what they have to do. people in bradford were preparing for tier 3 measures on monday. now they are bracing themselves for the prospect of full lockdown again. ijust think lots of people are going to struggle with it, mental health and financially, you know. we need to get a grip of this, so if that's what needs to happen, i'm all for it. is it really necessary?

do we really need to go into another national lockdown? is it good for the economy, do we need to put everything on hold all over again? ishfaq run six restaurants which have already lost around 30% of business under tier 2, which banned households from mixing indoors. we've lost a lot of business and if we go for another lockdown, it's going to really cripple the business and, you know, everyone. months of restrictions have left some businesses here hanging by a thread, unsure if they can survive a winter of tougher lockdown. luxmy gopal, bbc news, bradford. let's have a reminder now of what restrictions are in place around the uk. in wales, the 17 day firebreak lockdown, with people only able to leave their homes for limited reasons, continues. it is currently set to finish on november the 9th. northern ireland first minister arlene foster has said that the current tightened restrictions there will end — as planned — on the 13th of november. pubs and restaurants have been closed, and schools,

which will re—open on monday, were closed for two weeks. scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has urged against all non—essential travel across the border with england. a new five—level system of restrictions for tackling coronavirus will come into force in scotland on monday, which will see travel restrictions imposed on many scots. the james bond star sir sean connery has died at the age of 90. the first actor to play 007 in the james bond films — it was a role that brought him global stardom — and was followed by decades as one of hollywood's leading actors. our arts editor will gompertz looks back at his life. sean connery was the first, and for many, the pre—eminent... bond. james bond. with the inner snarl

of humphrey bogart and the outward charm of cary grant, connery created a charismatic screen legend. a ladies‘ man... looking for shells? no, i'm just looking. ..with a killer's instinct. he went from being a jobbing actor in his early 30s to an international movie star. an instantly recognisable global celebrity. the attention and fuss that came with the fame did not sit comfortably with the no—nonsense working class scot, who had once been a milkman, a model, and briefly, a coffin buffer. i had no awareness of that scale of the kind of reverence and pressure and what have you. i never had a press representative or anything. and ifound it a bit of a nightmare. bond was universally popular, but not with the man playing him. connery felt trapped in 007‘s gilded cage. he wanted out, to test his talents with more challenging roles.

he won plaudits for the man who would be king, playing alongside his old friend, michael caine. we've been all over india, we know her cities and jungles and herjails and her passes. and we have decided that she isn't big enough for such as we. he won an oscar for the untouchables. want to get capone? here's how you get him. he pulls a knife, you pull a gun. he sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one i suddenly remembered my charlemagne. might my armies be the rocks and the trees. the birds in the sky. and he won legions more fans in indiana jones. he was a proud scot and a committed member of the snp. he came from humble beginnings, but, through charisma, talent, sheer hard work, became one of the world's greatest actors. and, you know, his achievements are absolutely legendary. i know that across scotland

today we are mourning one of our best loved sons. tell me, do you play any other games? he will always be remembered for playing 007. but james bond didn't make sean connery. sean connery madejames bond. my name is pussy galore. i must be dreaming. a movie icon, established by an intelligent, versatile, exceptionally talented actor. sir sean connery, who has died aged 90. we will be back on bbc one with the full downing street news conference after the news where we are. for now, goodbye. widespread gales with severe gale is likely across northern ireland and western scotland. some heavy rain continuing across scotland and northern ireland, so the combination of rain and gales is likely to cause

some issues, the risk of minor flooding in some western hills so disruption is likely. head online to check out the latest weather warnings. this is storm aidan, it is likely to bring a spell of severe winds to northern ireland and western scotland for the rest of today. some heavy rain continuing here as well. further south after the rain clears will be brighter briefly. one or two blustery showers. the winds, 40 or 50 mph, may be more in exposure. stronger than that around the coasts of the irish sea. 70 to 80 miles an hour across western scotland and northern ireland for a time. by the end of the day, still fairly mild although it will not feel like it because of the strength of the winds. that rain begins to become more showery, then sky is clearfor begins to become more showery, then sky is clear for the many areas will be dry for sky is clear for the many areas will be dryfora sky is clear for the many areas will be dry for a time overnight before the next low pressure system comes in from the atlantic to bring the strengthening winds and outbreaks of pretty heavy and persistent rain.

temperatures will be rising again across the south generally into double figures by around dawn. the new area of low pressure which contains the remnants of what was hurricane zita, will bring another wet and windy day to most areas but again western scotland cluster to that area, which is going to see the strongest of the winds on sunday. we lose the early morning rain, brightening up for a little, but more rain starts to come into parts of northern ireland, northern and western isles and and wales could see some minorflooding western isles and and wales could see some minor flooding as western isles and and wales could see some minorflooding as rainfall totals start to mount up over the course of the day. another windy day, not quite as windy as this afternoon but very windy for western scotland, severe gales likely. turning cooler in the north, ten or 11 sources, but from the midlands southwards, it is going to be very mild. into next week, monday looks quite windy with further rain. turning cooler and more settled as we reach tuesday. the winds will begin to ease down because high pressure will build in. for the rest

of next week it looks drier with sunshine, less windy and it will be called and by night. —— it will be colder. hello. this is bbc news with reeta chakrabarti. the prime minister is due to announce new lockdown measures in england — with the new restrictions expected to last for a month. non—essential retail and hospitality will be forced to close — supermarkets will stay open. households will not be allowed to mix inside, unless for child care reasons. schools and universities will be allowed to stay open. earlier, i spoke to professor neil ferguson, an epidemiologist at imperial college london, who — in march — predicted that up to 500,000 britons could die from covid—19, which led to the government enforcing a nationwide lockdown. he gave his reaction

to a new lockdown for england. they are modelling also at that time __ my they are modelling also at that time “ my my they are modelling also at that time —— my my modelling suggested we might go into lockdown more than once, that if we relaxed measures that transmission would research and that's what we've seen this autumn, with schools and shops reopening. whilst the tier 3 and tier 2 measures are having some effect in slowing the spread it doesn't seem to be enough. so if you want to get what are now high infection levels down, we need to impose more measures, particularly ahead of christmas. so should this have been done earlier? because we that the scientific advisory group was talking from september the 22nd, sorry, 21st about locking down earlier. i think it's a difficult set of questions because there is an economic impact on all these measures. businesses are already suffering. these suggested reason to

wait a little to see whether the tiered measures being introduced would have sufficient effect to control infection levels, it doesn't appear to be the case that is the effect. and whilst slowing the infection they are not causing case numbers to drop which is what we really need at the moment. so you think it was understandable and justifiable for the government to try the tiered, localised measures first? i understand that for whatever reasons we are doing so for us we are epidemiologists, we study disease trends and suggest thing that may bring infection levels down but at the end of the day there is a balancing act between introducing measures which we think will work effectively, but at huge cost, and balancing the impact on the economy. we learned yesterday that on the 8th of october, these scientific advisory group was that the

projection now exceeded their worst case scenario, so that was three weeks ago, should the government have acted sooner? i think there have acted sooner? i think there have been a lot of discussions on government and obviously we've seen areas being escalated, and of course we are only talking about back, two or three weeks ago with the introduction of the tiered system, which the government hoped would bring infection is under control. there was always some question as to whether tier 3 measures were sufficient in those hotspot areas to reverse infection levels. that has proved not to be the case. reverse infection levels. that has proved not to be the caselj reverse infection levels. that has proved not to be the case. i don't know if it's possible for you to a nswer know if it's possible for you to answer this, but can you quantify what difference it would have made ifa what difference it would have made if a lockdown had been brought in earlier? we can quantify, yes, but i think it's an important consideration here, that all a lockdown does is reduce infection levels for the period of time it is

in force. so if we think about where we are going to end up on christmas eve, whether we have a lockdown on, let us say, the beginning of october, beginning of november and it only last for a month, you end up backin it only last for a month, you end up back in the same place as you would have done in that, you know, end of december timeframe. and lockdowns are effective when they are in force reverse infection is by a certain amount, but then, once you release them, infection levels would start going up again, we predict. so i think the important question is, what's going to follow this lockdown? one set of measures will be in place which allow some economic activity but do not allow virus levels to spike as we approach christmas? professor neil ferguson who i spoke toa professor neil ferguson who i spoke to a little earlier. let's ta ke let's take a look at the measures in place in the devolved nation. the

welsh first minister said the firebrake will end as planned and that his cabinet will meet on sunday to discuss any potential border issues for wales in light of any announcement by number ten. scotland's new tiered system will come into force on monday. nicola sturgeon has issued new advice for people not to travel to or from england. welcome back to viewers on bbc one. the prime minister is due to announce new lockdown measures in england — with the new restrictions expected to last for a month. let's take a look at what we know so far. non—essential retail and hospitality will be forced to close — supermarkets will stay open. households will not be allowed to mix inside, unless for child care reasons. schools and universities will be allowed to stay open. and chris is here now. viewers can see the door of number

ten downing st just viewers can see the door of number ten downing stjust now and we are of course keeping an eye on what's going on inside that we are expecting this very delayed press conference to take place fairly soon. talk through what has happened this afternoon. not a lot, is the short answer in terms of what has happened publicly. a huge amount has happened publicly. a huge amount has happened privately. if you turned on a few hours ago and you heard me saying the press conference was imminent, it was at the time. the word imminent should always be treated in a rather elastic way when it comes to government announcement and the timing of them, not least because there are clearly big decisions being taken and things are very fluid and things have moved very fluid and things have moved very quickly today. we were originally expecting the news conference at four o'clock, then at five o'clock, then around half past six, which is now, we think it will happen within the next 15 minutes. so we will hear from the prime minister and from chris whitty, the chief medical officer, the government's chief medical adviser, and from sir patrick vallance, the

chief scientific adviser, so the trio we have heard from in all the big occasions during this pandemic reappearing publicly together in this news conference. occasions during this pandemic appearing publicly together in this news conference. we are expecting an england wide lockdown to be announced starting on thursday, running until the 2nd of december with nonessential shops being closed, not including supermarkets. supermarkets will remain open. the hospitality sector closing down with the exception of takeaways, so pubs, cafes a nd restau ra nts the exception of takeaways, so pubs, cafes and restaurants closing. people being able to meet one person outside from beyond their household, so an important detail there, particularly for those who live alone and, crucially, the distinction you reported there, that is different to what happened in the uk in the spring, schools, colleges and universities will stay open. what we have seen today and one of the explanations behind this delay in the news conferences the government being caught something on the hop by reports late last night and in the newspapers this morning

and in the newspapers this morning and on the bbc that this