would shows the impact of what this would be on nhs beds. on the left—hand side is acute hospital beds and, on the right—hand side, is ventilator beds. it is the same care of you have just seen, so the first peak on the left and then the projection on the left and then the projection on the right. so the projections that i have just shown you, when the nhs do their bed calculations, as peak usage being exceeded on the 20th of november, that is obviously not a precise estimate but where this would fall on average, that the extra available beds would then be exceeded a couple of days later, three days later, and, then, extra capacity caused by having to postpone, unfortunately, all the things that nobody wants to postpone, get succeeded sometime later in december. and a similar picture is seen on ventilator beds, where the peak gets reached towards

the end of november, or in december, and the currently available get breached a little bit earlier. so this is a picture of what the nhs pressures would look like under the scenarios that are in the six—week projection. i will hand back to you, prime minister. thank you very much, patrick, thanks, chris. i'm afraid no responsible prime minister can ignore the message of those figures and, whenl ignore the message of those figures and, when i told you two weeks ago that we were pursuing a local and a regional approach to tackling this virus, i believed then and i still believe passionately that was the right thing to do, because we know the cost of these restrictions, the damage they do, the impact on jobs and on livelihoods and on people's mental health, and no one wants to be imposing these kinds of measures anywhere, and we didn't want to be

shutting businesses, pubs, restau ra nts shutting businesses, pubs, restaurants in one part of the country where incidence was very low, when the vast bulk of the infections were taking place elsewhere. and our hope was, by strong local actions, strong local leadership, we could get the rates of infection down where the disease was surging and address the problem, thereby, across the whole country. i wa nt to thereby, across the whole country. i want to thank the millions of people who have been putting up with these restrictions in their areas for so long. i want to thank the local leaders who stepped up and local communities, because, as you can see from some of those charts, you know, the r has been kept lower than it would otherwise have been and there are signs that your work has been paying off. and we will continue, as far as we possibly can, to adopt a pragmatic and a local approach in the months ahead. but, as we have

also seen from those charts, we've got to be humble in the face of nature and, in this country, alas, as across much of europe, the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst—case scenario of oui’ reasonable worst—case scenario of our scientific advisers. whose models, house you havejust our scientific advisers. whose models, house you have just seen, now suggest that, unless we act, we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day, a peak of mortality, alas, bigger than the one we saw in april and, as you have just seen, even the one we saw in april and, as you havejust seen, even in the one we saw in april and, as you have just seen, even in the south—west, where incidence was so low and still is so low, it is now clear, though, that the current projections mean that hospitals in the south—west will run out of capacity in just a matter of weeks, u nless we capacity in just a matter of weeks, unless we act. and let me explain why the over running of the nhs

would be a medical and a moral disaster beyond the raw loss of life, because the huge, exponential growth in a number of patients, by no means all of them elderly, by the way, it would mean that doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would get oxygen and who wouldn't, who would live and who would die. and doctors and nurses would be forced to choose between saving covid patients and non—coded patients and the sheer weight of covid demand would mean depriving tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions of non—covid patients of the care they need and it is crucial to grasp this, that the general threat to public health comes not from

focusing too much on covid but from not focusing enough from failing to get it under control and, if we let the lines on those graphs grow in the lines on those graphs grow in the way that they could and the way they are projected to grow, then the risk is that, for the first time in our lives, the nhs will not be there for us and for our families. and, even for us and for our families. and, evenif for us and for our families. and, even if i could no double capacity overnight, and, obviously, i even if i could no double capacity overnight, and, obviously, lam proud we have massively increased capacity, we do have the nightingales, we have 13,000 more nurses than we had last year, many more doctors, but it still would not be enough, because the virus is doubling faster than we can conceivably add capacity. and so now is the time to take action, because there is no alternative. and, from thursday until the start of december, you must stay at home. you

may only leave home for specific reasons, including for education, for work, let's say if you cannot work from home, for exercise and recreation outdoors with your household or on your own, with one person from another household, for medical reasons, appointments and to escape injury or harm. to shop for food or essentials and to provide ca re food or essentials and to provide care for vulnerable people or as a volunteer. i'm afraid nonessential shops, leisure and entertainment venues shops, leisure and entertainment venues will all be closed, though click and collect the services can continue and essential shops will remain open so there is no need to stock up. pubs, bars, restaurants must close, except for takeaway and delivery services. workplaces should stay open where people can't work from home, for example in the construction and manufacturing sectors. single adult households can

still form exclusive support bubbles with one other household and children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated. if you are clinically vulnerable or over the age of 60, you should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise your contacts with others. i know how tough shielding was and we will not ask to shield again in the same way, but we are asking those who are clinically extremely vulnerable to minimise their contact with others and not to go to work if they are unable to work from home. i am under no illusions about how difficult this will be for businesses which have already had to endure such hardship this year and i am truly, truly sorry for that. and that is why we are going to extend the furlough system through november. the furlough scheme was a success in the spring, it supported people in business is in a critical time. we

will not end it, we will extend furlough until december. there will be some differences compared to march and these measures, above all, will be time limited, starting thursday the 5th of november, they will end on wednesday the 2nd of december, when we will seek to ease restrictions, going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends. christmas is going to be different this year, perhaps very different, but it is my sincere hope and believe that, by taking tough action now, we can allow families across the country to be together. my priority, our priority, remains keeping people in education, so childcare, early years settings, schools, colleges and universities will all remain open. our senior clinicians are still advised that school is the best place for children to be. we cannot

let this virus damage our children's futures even let this virus damage our children's futures even more let this virus damage our children's futures even more than it has already and i urge parents to continue taking their children to school and i'm extremely grateful to teachers across the country for their dedication in enabling schools to remain open. and it is vital that we to remain open. and it is vital that we keep provision for non—healthcare groups going. so, please, and this is really important, unless you're clinicians tell you otherwise, you should continue to use the nhs, get your scans, turn should continue to use the nhs, get yourscans, turn up should continue to use the nhs, get your scans, turn up for your appointments and pick up your treatments. if at all possible, we wa nt treatments. if at all possible, we want you to continue to access these services now and through the winter. indeed, it is only by taking this action that we can protect the nhs for you. action that we can protect the nhs foryou. on action that we can protect the nhs for you. on monday, action that we can protect the nhs foryou. on monday, i'm action that we can protect the nhs for you. on monday, i'm going to set out our plans to parliament. on wednesday, parliament will debate

and vote on these measures which, if passed, will, as i say, come into force on thursday. we have updated the devolved administrations on the action we are taking in england and stand ready to work with them on plans for christmas and beyond. we should remember that we are not alone in what we are going through, our friends alone in what we are going through, ourfriends in alone in what we are going through, our friends in belgium, alone in what we are going through, ourfriends in belgium, france, germany have ta ken ourfriends in belgium, france, germany have taken very similar action and, so, as we come together now action and, so, as we come together now to fight this second wave, i wa nt to now to fight this second wave, i want to say something about the way ahead, because people will reasonably ask when will this all end? and, as i have said before, i am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring. it is notjust that we have ever better medicines and therapies and the realistic hope of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year. we now have the immediate prospect

of using many millions of cheap, reliable and, above all, rapid turnaround tests. tests that you can use yourself to tell you whether or not you are infectious, and get the result within ten to 15 minutes. and we result within ten to 15 minutes. and we know from trials across the country, in schools and hospitals, that we can use these tests notjust to locate infectious people, but to drive down the disease, and so over the next few days, weeks, we plan but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests. applying them in an ever—growing number of situations, from helping women to have their partners with them in labour wards when they are giving birth, to testing whole towns and even whole cities. the army has been brought in

to work on the logistics and the programme will begin in a matter of days. working with local communities, local government, public health directors, organisations of all kinds to help people discover whether or not they are infectious, and then immediately to get them to help them to self—isolate and stop the spread of the disease. and i can tell you tonight that the scientists may be a pretty uniformly gloomy about the immediate options that we face, but they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and long term future. we will get through this, but we must act now to contain this autumn surge. we are not going back to the full—scale lockdown of march and april. the measures that i have outlined are less prohibitive and less restrictive, but i'm afraid from thursday the basic message is

the same. stay at home, protect the nhs, and save lives. we are going to leave that press conference now for viewers on bbc one but coverage of this news conference continues on the bbc news channel. what we're saying of the numbers from the southwest this is very clear that the pressure on the hospitals in the south—west is particularly acute and we have got to recognise that although the incidence is low it is growing in

the south—west and we need to tackle it and we need to tackle it now but chris will add to that. the only thing to add, prime minister, is just to reiterate that many of the areas that are lower have some of the highest rates of increase and also some areas, including the south—west, and likely to get pressure on beds really relatively early because of the particular way that the nhs is constructed in areas. thanks very much. let's go to sir alex from london. alex from london asks... well, thanks, alex. one of the many things that we're doing is the £2 billion kick start programme which is designed to help 18 to 2a—year—olds get into the labour market by supporting their employers. to take them man with a contribution from government to the

value of the living wage. —— to take them on. we hope that that will be effective in what will expectedly be tough months ahead. kick—start scheme helping many young people to getjobs across this country. i'm going to go now, since that was obviously a question for me rather than the scientists i am going to go to laura couldn spoke at bbc. thanks very much, prime minister. you was told by your own scientist many weeks ago that you would need to ta ke weeks ago that you would need to take national action in order to save take national action in order to save lives. anti—professor whitty and sir patrick you have always been clear that taking early action would be the best way to control this disease. do you think the people lost their lives unnecessarily because of the delay? let me just say that this is a constant struggle

and a balance that any government has to make between lives and livelihoods and obviously lives must come first, but we have to be mindful the whole time of the scarring, the long—term economic impact of the measures that we are obliged to introduce so i do think it was right and rational to go for the regional approach. if we could have got the are down in those local areas in the way that we wanted, get it below one —— got the r down, we got it below in some places, i think that would have been a great way forward. alas, in common with many other parts of this continent we have just seen an overall growth rate in the second wave and that has made it absolutely vital to act now to spare and protect our nhs and to

save to spare and protect our nhs and to save lives. yes, it is true that the course of the pandemic has changed and it is also right that the government should change and modulate its response in accordance andi modulate its response in accordance and i make absolutely no apologies for that, but i will go to other questions, sorry. this is a horrible virus and these are horrendous decisions to have to make and one shouldn't underestimate the impact of lockdown and all the other things that go along with that. there is no doubt from the pier point of view of the spread of covid the earlier you go in the better. —— pure point of view. that is obviously the case for the spread of the disease but people have to take into account other things as well and that is the case for politicians. thank you very much. the only thing i would add is relative to other countries in europe, some have gone early and

some have gone later, france is arguably gone later intended its epidemic curve and these are very difficult decisions of any government. i would difficult decisions of any government. iwould reiteratejust from a health point of view that many of the things that are involved hike significant downlights and therefore we have always had to —— have significant downsides we have a lwa ys have significant downsides we have always had to walk the path of if you do them earlier you have a very significant cost and therefore how do you balance them against one another? thank you very much. sky news. prime minister, you said recently that a national lockdown would be a disaster but many people watching this tonight will conclude that your failure to follow sage advice and the advice of the men standing by your side five weeks ago was the wrong call. we face a longer lockdown, christmas is in doubt, the nhs could be overwhelmed. do you

accept that you should have followed the scientific advice more closely and diva glad that you haven't? if i could just ask professor whitty. .. —— do you regret that you haven't? many people will be worried her themselves and their families, particularly going into christmas. realistically, is it now too little too late to get us to a place where we too late to get us to a place where we will be able to celebrate christmas with our families? thanks, beth. i just really christmas with our families? thanks, beth. ijust really repeat the point i need to lather. we have obviously had to listen to all kinds of scientific advice, some of which tends in very much a different direction from some of the sage advice that you've seen but we also have to balance that scientific advice with the consequences for people's lives, for people's mental health, for people's livelihood that

comes from the lockdown measures and you have heard what david nabarro of the world health organization, a very estimable epidemiologist says about lockdown. there is a range of advice and there is a balance that we advice and there is a balance that we have to strike. i think i would just stress that we are not going back to, you know, we are not closing schools. it is very, very important that we are keeping schools open. construction, manufacturing, we want to keep going. people, of course, should work from home. we want to minimise contact and get the r down and that's the important thing. that's the way to protect the nhs but i am not going to pretend to you that thesejudgments not going to pretend to you that these judgments and incredibly difficult. they are incredibly difficult. they are incredibly difficult and we have to find the right balance and we have to change with the changing pattern of the virus and, alas, what we're seeing

now virus and, alas, what we're seeing now is a pretty surge, notjust in this country but across many of our friends and partners in europe so we have to deal with it. in terms of the timing, the idea that there is a perfect time to act as a complete misapprehension. there is basically no perfect time and there are no good solutions. all the solutions are bad and what we're trying to do is have the fewest, the least bad set of solutions at a time where you actually achieve the kind of balance needs to be struck between all these things that ministers have to make decisions on and in terms of festivities whether it is christmas orany festivities whether it is christmas or any other religious tradition, we would have a much better chance of doing it with these measures then we would if these measures were not being taken away and i —— being taken today being taken away and i —— being ta ken today and being taken away and i —— being taken today and i think let's to see

what happens over the next few weeks. let's go to itv news. prime minister, the route out of local lockdown was supposed to be local restrictions and test and trace. now that these have been shown to be totally inadequate, why do you think that these will help to get a better national lockdown? do you think a long day or month of lockdown will be enough to allow families to be together at christmas and do not leave like the prime minister that things will be better in spring? —— do you believe that things will be better in spring? i talked about what we are going to do with the lateral flow testing, old what we are going to do with the lateralflow testing, old kind of testing that we are going to be rolling out and over the our own rolling out and over the our own rolling out. that work so well if you have local buying, local support, local councils and public health directors, everybody involved

together. —— local buy—in. that was one reason why the regional and local approach was right. the second region, as i say, when you have a situation in which in a very big country with a huge population you have very considerable disparities in incidents it is logical not to treat the whole country the same and you heard that point made by jonathan and others very recently andi jonathan and others very recently and i think that holds a lot of water. the trouble we have got, i am afraid, is that... is that the local leadership and the tears that they we re leadership and the tears that they were in made progress, they did get the r down lower than it would have other beam, no question, they made a huge difference to their sacrifice and their efforts, and perhaps if we

continued it really would have worked in those areas. the problem was that we were just seeing too many cases really taking off across the whole country and it wasn't coming down fast enough in those most badly affected areas and say you have to take a judgment and we have to try now to get this thing, get to the r right under control with the measures that we are setting out and, as i said, to come out of it in december and hopefully people will have something a bit closer to a normal christmas as a result, but, more important than that, we will be able to spare the nhs and save a lot of lives and that is the fundamental objective. on the question she

on the questions you ask me, if we did not act now the chance of the nhs being an extraordinary trouble in december is very, very high. we are trying to ensure it is not an impossible place for the nhs with large numbers of people infected and dying. i large numbers of people infected and dying. lam, however, as the large numbers of people infected and dying. i am, however, as the prime minister said one of many scientists who are much more optimistic when we look forward to spring and that is for multiple reasons, each one of which contributes a small amount but the two biggest ones are, as the seasons move on we the two biggest ones are, as the seasons move on we all know that this is the late autumn and winter period is the period of greater risk for respiratory viruses. that perspective everything, flew another viruses as well, and that will come to our significant advantage when it comes to the spring. —— flu and other viruses as well. also when it

comes to people behaving differently and the temperature. there are multiple shots on goal from science and the scientific effort that is going on is enormous and unparalleled from the uk and national medical research councils and the welcome trust and others and the academics centre is leading that work and also many countries doing the same kinds of activities and all the same kinds of activities and all the pharmaceutical industry is engaged. if you think about that body of work it is steadily going to come on top of this infection just as it has every infection we have had to date and i think it is important always to remember that medical science is remarkably effective but the area that it has been most effective is in tackling infectious diseases, which used to be the predominant cause of mortality and they have now changed, so the expectation that science will bring forward large numbers of

things which cumulatively will get on top of this is not an unreasonable one. that is what you would expect based on all previous experience. and i think there are three concrete things to bear in mind of the advances in science. first, we now know one drug, dexamethasone, that reduces deaths from covid patients requiring oxygen in hospital. second, vaccines and i we re in hospital. second, vaccines and i were in late stage clinical trials and there are many in late stage can or clinical trials showing an immune response. doesn't mean it is going to work but it is an important step along the way. third, the new testing approaches, so the idea faster than the person testing, which has been difficult up until now, and it wasn't certain it was going to get there —— faster in person testing now looks real and as though it is going to come online. you can see those three advances that are going to come into play over the next month and suddenly by next year and in spring and beyond even to see the effect of some of

those. thank you so much. let's go to the sun on sunday. dave, you need to the sun on sunday. dave, you need to meet. you need to unmute. sorry, apologies. if this four week lockdown doesn't do the trick and you have to extend, what sort of length of time do you envisage? another week, another two weeks, another four weeks? can another week, another two weeks, anotherfourweeks? cani another week, another two weeks, anotherfourweeks? can i perhaps ask professor whitty and sir patrick whether they think that four weeks is enough or whether they were pushing for a bit longer? and the other thing i would like to as quickly as is the premier league matches, are they still going to be played throughout this period?|j matches, are they still going to be played throughout this period? i can say yes to the premier league. i think, with authority. on the question of is the period up to the

2nd of december going to be enough, i hope so, we gave you every reason to believe it will be, but we will be driven by the science, and we will look at where we've got to. you know, i'm optimistic because, you know, i'm optimistic because, you know, as i said a couple of weeks ago and as i said again tonight, the r. ago and as i said again tonight, the r, although it is above one, is not that much above one. i think you we re that much above one. i think you were looking at one of the slides that patrick showed us earlier. i mean, it has been coming down. the trouble is, that still means that the disease is doubling. if you can get it below wouldn't then, as you know, it starts having. that is where we want to get and we think this package will do that but we will be led by the evidence.|j this package will do that but we will be led by the evidence. i think the key is getting the r really below one during these four weeks. if we all do what we are supposed to do doing this the r will come down.

if we get the r well below one is starts the half and we will end up ina much starts the half and we will end up in a much better position. but i don't think it is a situation where in four weeks' time everything will be back to normal again. there will still need to be some restrictions over the winter where the new measures coming in spring and the new measures, long but four weeks with a really good reduction of r would make a big difference. just on the period coming up, as it were, to december the 2nd, we will be looking very carefully at what is happening and that tiered areas and working out exactly which tier we will be in and which would be most appropriate as we come and which would be most appropriate as we come out of the stuff autumn measures. let's go to have it from the press association. what is your message to leaders in scotland, wales and northern ireland? de want them to follow your lead and introduce the same measures and if not a considering restrictions on

travel between the