this is bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in the uk and around the world. i'm shaun ley. our top stories... a senior government minister warns the second national lockdown in england could last more than a month amid fears that the rise in coronavirus cases could overwhelm hospitals. the most powerful storm of the year typhoon goni strikes the philippines, bringing wind speeds of up to 225 kilometres an hour. donald trump and joe biden each make a last bid for votes in swing states that could be key to winning the white house. and spain braces itself for a long winter — a week after its goverment announced a six—month state of emergency.

hello and welcome to bbc news. borisjohnson has announced a second national lockdown for england to prevent what he called a "medical and moral disaster" for the health service. pubs, restaurants, gyms and non—essential shops will have to close for at least four weeks from thursday. the senior cabinet office minister, michael gove, has warned the measures could be extended. jonathan blake reports. dreary weather and dire warnings set the scene for what in the end seemed inevitable. a national lockdown for england, the prime minister said, was now the only option. we've got to be humble in the face of nature. and in this country, alas, as across much of europe,

the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst case scenario. and so now is the time to take action because there is no alternative. the last resort had become the only way forward, he argued, and in a matter of days, tough measures would be imposed, severely limiting people's lives. we will get through this but we must act now to contain this autumn surge. we are not going back to the full lockdown of march and april but i'm afraid, from thursday, the basic message is the same. stay at home, protect the nhs, and save lives. the decision marks a complete change in the government's approach. some had argued it should have come sooner but yesterday, acknowledged there were no easy options. the idea that there is some perfect time to act is a complete misapprehension. there is basically no perfect time and there are no good solutions.

mps will vote on the plans this week. some conservatives don't want another lockdown, labour said it would support the measures but ministers should have acted sooner. lockdown will be longer, it will be harder and there is a human cost which will be very, very real. there's no denying these measures are necessary and i'm glad that the government has finally taken the decision that it should have taken weeks ago. this is a move borisjohnson did not want to make but the reality of rising cases forced him to act. his hope will be that in four weeks‘ time, the outlook is brighter. jonathan blake, bbc news. more on the english lockdown in a minute. but first, typhoon goni has hit the philippines with strong rain and winds of more than 225 kilometres an hour. southern provinces of the main island of luzon are currently taking the brunt of the storm and a million people have been moved to evacuation centres. our manila correspondent, howard johnson, has this update.

well, as the hours go on we have seen well, as the hours go on we have seen more well, as the hours go on we have seen more and well, as the hours go on we have seen more and more well, as the hours go on we have seen more and more rain here, the wind is picking up and down on the streets i have seen people getting last minute provisions, getting ready to hunker down before this sta rts ready to hunker down before this starts around 7pm denied. what we've seen starts around 7pm denied. what we've seen through the day is this storm hit very hard around 5am, just before 5am, it hit an island and we saw that there was a massive movement across the land to a nearby province. lots of social media has emerged showing landslides, ash mixing with water close, lots of flooding, there have been reports of casualties as well but not confirmed by the governor. we spoke to the governor, they are confirming and doing due diligence before they put out details of the casualties.

you're watching bbc world news. back to the lockdown in england. it will start on thursday and is scheduled to last a month. under the restrictions, restaurants and pubs will close — but takeaways and deliveries will be allowed. all non—essential retail will shut, but supermarkets will stay open. mixing with other households inside homes, or in private gardens, will be banned — except for childcare and other forms of support. and unlike the first lockdown — schools, colleges and universities will stay open. travel will be discouraged — except for work. the government's chief scientific adviser, sir patrick vallance, has warned that more people could be admitted to hospital in england over the next six weeks than during the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. the latest figures show there were just under 22,000 new coronavirus infections recorded in the latest 24—hour period — taking the total number of uk cases to more than a million.

the average number of new cases reported per day in the last week isjust over 22,500. and 326 deaths were reported yesterday. that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—i9 test. it means on average in the past week — 259 deaths were announced every day, taking the total number of deaths across the uk to more than 16,500. professor calum semple is a virologist at the university of liverpool — and a member of sage the scientific advisory group for emergencies — that advises the government. i should say, professor, you are speaking to us today in your personal capacity, based on your knowledge obviously, as a virologist and the work you have done in this

area. therefore, given this is not a sage decision but is a government decision, and you and your collea g u es decision, and you and your colleagues contributed to the debate over it, what do you make of the timing of this? we have gone to the line and held off as long as possible. this is what i can see between making this important decision. and nobody wants a lockdown but speaking in medical terms, the country is sick and it needs this medicine, nobody likes the taste of it, but it needs it. if we delay it any longer, we would go past a point of no return where it would become inevitable that the nhs would become inevitable that the nhs would become inevitable that the nhs would be overwhelmed by cases of covid, leaving no room for important other treatments such as the car crashes that people need intensive ca re crashes that people need intensive care beds after cancer treatment, or major operations. it's clearly a judgment call in the end, when a decision is made to do this. sage

we re decision is made to do this. sage were advising this should be done perhaps, some members of sage advice and it should be done several weeks ago, the government waited to see itsjudgment of ago, the government waited to see its judgment of all the evidence taken together. what difference, i know this is hypothetical, i appreciate that, but from the scientific modelling, what difference might it have made if this had happened, if we had gone into lockdown may be six weeks ago oi’ into lockdown may be six weeks ago orfour into lockdown may be six weeks ago or four weeks into lockdown may be six weeks ago orfour weeks ago, that's into lockdown may be six weeks ago or four weeks ago, that's the period, before we started to see this big prize? i think it is a mistake to think it is hypothetical, it is well proven, we know this from previous outbreaks in other countries and in the uk, that the earlier you make a decisive intervention, the lower you push the numbers and if you leave that intervention to a later point, because you are at a higher part of the curve, you only come down slightly less so up with these issues, the earlier you act, the better it is for controlling the outbreak. but the challenge is then

balancing the impact on society and other parts of the economy and that's the political decision, and that's the political decision, and that's what we've seen happen, the political decision was to leave it a little later, keep the economy going and try the tiered approach. the tiered approach has been tried, we are now going for a nationwide lockdown, as you said, it's driven in large measure, by the desire to ensure the nhs can cope with the numbers because the numbers are going to come, however we handle this period. in terms of our capacity to deal with that, what is your sense of the ability to maintain service in these circumstances? it's still going to be very challenging and even the tiered approach came later than we would have ideally wanted. the tiered approach in some areas, was showing signs of working and we were seeing a plateauing of cases but

because the tiered approach was brought in relatively late, that plateauing occurred at a higher level so you were having a sort of sta ble level so you were having a sort of stable but high level of activity and that was what was said in manchester and liverpool and causing severe stress in oui’ manchester and liverpool and causing severe stress in our staff in these hospitals. and then, it has to be understood, levels of sickness rise, if we did nothing at all, apart from the stress on the nhs, we would then see other problems in other sectors of society, as general sickness, just goes through the community and then you start to find shifts for then you start to find shifts for the fire brigade and the police service become harder to fill and it just takes one or two isolated insta nces just takes one or two isolated instances of stupidity and then a failure of the fire brigade to be able to attend on time or a police car to arrive on time and then rapidly you get a cascade of bad behaviour or lack of confidence and civic organisations to maintain order. and that is the next phase and that is inevitable if we did

nothing. so, it is difficult medicine, unpalatable, but incredibly necessary.” medicine, unpalatable, but incredibly necessary. i suppose the challenge that has to be made in terms of the debate you have with whether it is the politicians or us, as members of the public, is that it's not necessarily a case of doing this or doing nothing, there were other options that were tried, other things that could still be tried. i mean, how do you deal with that? there will be that residual feeling among a lot of people, saying hang on, we have had this tiered system, not in place very long, the rule of six has been in place a bit longer but people will ask this question, are there other ways we could do this, which is not a case of doing nothing, but something as an alternative to the full england wide lockdown. not today. not yesterday, and probably not last week. we ran out of room to try other things stop we have got into a position where u nfortu nately, we have got into a position where unfortunately, this sledgehammer of lockdown is necessary. and none of

us lockdown is necessary. and none of us like this as a control organism, it is the least worst of solutions. but it is bad. we don't like this. 0ur but it is bad. we don't like this. our experience in managing other outbreaks, particularly in west africa and other localised outbreaks, is that warranting society, it was really only a holding position because when you undo it, matters will go back to the passed state so you have to use it as an opportunity to improve the test, trace and isolation. that is an exit strategy. and until we get mass testing up and running, fast turnaround, it is the fast turnaround, it is the fast turnaround, there is no use having a system that waits five days for a test result to come because you cannot get ahead of the virus. when the prime minister talked a bit about that in his briefing on saturday to journalists, and

about that in his briefing on saturday tojournalists, and members of the public, which was broadcast around the uk, of course, and will have been seen also by people internationally as well, would have looked at what he was saying, and compared the experience to their own countries, is that something where with a system, the sort of system he was talking about, we are getting close to having that capacity or are we still some way from? we are still some way from it but technology is coming online. there is a technology called lamp which is showing great promise. the testing capacity has been supported by universities which i think is a good thing because universities have laboratory skills and space so the combination of improved logistics and universities working in civic partnerships and there are some really good examples of that, work that is helping to support health and education and the local economy in a civic partnership, that is working really well and i have hope for that. that

isa well and i have hope for that. that is a devolved process, sometimes called distributed resilience and thatis called distributed resilience and that is a model for outbreak control, tested and proven, whereas centralised testing intelligence usually falls down because it doesn't have the nimbleness to control this so i see optimism, we are seeing really good civic leadership in the regions, improved capacity through local intelligence. are you kind of more optimistic that because of the lessons we have learned in the spring, in terms of treatment of patients, including those who were more seriously affected by covid, that the kind of experience of patients will be in hospitals, as good as it possibly can be in the circumstances? those who have the condition and end up having to be hospitalised? there's two aspects to this, first of all, the treatment has got better and we have a drug which is cheap, readily available and works when it is used so as available and works when it is used so as that drug is better adopted

and that drug does need to be fully adopted still, that will save lives. the overall case fatality rate in hospital has come down from one in three to one in six and that is incredible. if i give you any other disease and said we will cut the death rate by half in six months‘ time you would laugh at me. that‘s been done by really good research in the uk. that is the good news. the staff, they are experiencing groundhog day. they are seeing rising cases in the community because of the delay in effective community interventions. staff are exhausted. they are getting sick themselves. and it‘s really tough in these hospitals and we mustn‘t put them ina these hospitals and we mustn‘t put them in a situation where they have to decide do we take a 20—year—old who has come through some chemotherapy into a bed or do we ta ke chemotherapy into a bed or do we take a 50—year—old who has covid and what about that emergency operation? we cannot put them into the situation of literally choosing, who lives or dies because they have not

got enough beds. that damages the health and mental well—being of our doctors and nurses and physiotherapists and physiologists. that is what we must try and avoid now. and if we fail to do that, you will then see other problems in the fire brigade, the police service, the telecommunications sector is because we let it out of control. let‘s not just because we let it out of control. let‘s notjust think because we let it out of control. let‘s not just think this because we let it out of control. let‘s notjust think this is about protecting the nhs, this is protecting the nhs, this is protecting society. there is no winery decision between the economy versus health at this point. the virus is out of control. and we have to get the nation healthy. professor, speaking to us on a personal capacity this morning, thank you for speaking to us on bbc news. my pleasure. labour‘s shadow health secretary jonathan ashworth says the prime minister hadn‘t acted fast enough. he should have done it sooner. his

own expert scientists advised him to do it on the 21st of september. we looked at the evidence as well, in the labour party, we offered to work with him in the national interest and introduce a short, time—limited circuit break back in early october. he knocked us back, he ridiculed us, he said it was not a sensible policy. meanwhile, the death rate continued to climb, the hospital beds continued to fill. the ventilation beds continue to get worryingly filled up as well. and the prime minister has now been forced to act. we are pleased that he has finally acted but i‘m just so sad that we‘ve had weeks of dither from the prime minister which has meant people have lost their lives and people have become seriously ill. he should have acted sooner. the shadow health secretary. i‘m joined now by our political correspondent — helen catt.

what about the reaction in the conservative party? there is a fair amount of unhappiness on conservative backbenchers at the moment. part of that, we‘ve seen over recent weeks, a number of conservative mps who have been quite resista nt to conservative mps who have been quite resistant to a lot of restrictions, things like the rule of six, they weren‘t sure the evidence was really there to bring that in and when it comes to another lockdown, that is only going to intensify because there are a number of mps who just think it is too destructive for the economy and they think what is the endgame? how are we going to get out of this? they are reluctant to go into another lockdown without really knowing where it ends or what the strategy is and there is of course, a libertarian element as well in the conservative party and you have to remember, though we have got used to having restrictions, but on our lives, actually, if you step back and think, a government telling you if you can leave your house or not isa if you can leave your house or not is a huge move and so there are mps who say if you are going to do that,

put that level of restriction on lies, you need to make sure there is a really compelling case. they will be looking to see, borisjohnson clearly thinks there is a compelling case, however reluctantly, he seems to look at the figures which have come out over this week, believes there is a compelling case to take that drastic step now, will his party be convinced ? that drastic step now, will his party be convinced? there is unhappiness not just about the party be convinced? there is unhappiness notjust about the nuts and bolts or even the principle of lockdown, but about the government ‘s handling, which is causing frustration. that presumably will not have been made any easier by the admission from michael gove this morning that actually, it is for weeks now but there is no guarantee that those four weeks will not be extended, just as the original lockdown ended up being extended far beyond what anyone originally expected to be? exactly, then back to the originally three weeks, and thenit to the originally three weeks, and then it was extended and extended. so there is always a possibility. borisjohnson had so there is always a possibility. boris johnson had suggested so there is always a possibility. borisjohnson had suggested at the press conference yesterday, it was four weeks and then a return to regional restrictions but, you know,

i think the assumption was always its four weeks that work and there is the issue around christmas, trying to get the levels down so there could be some form of christmas gathering although boris johnson did one yesterday it could be very different. helen, thank you. the furlough scheme which began in march had been due to end yesterday. the government had gradually reduced its contribution, but the programme is now being reinstated at its original level as our business correspondent, katy austin reports. this was the zim braai restaurant in bournemouth in august, busy with eat out to help out diners. from thursday, it will, alongside all other pubs and restaurants in england, have to close for a month and, once again, put staff on furlough. a lot of businesses didn‘t — onlyjust came out of this, you know, this last lockdown. a lot of businesses won‘t come out of the second lockdown. furlough will help the employees, it will not save businesses.

there will need to be more grants, vat, rates. the furlough scheme had already cost £40 billion. it‘s difficult to tell just yet what the cost of this extra month will be, but, again, it‘s likely to run into the billions. for businesses in england which are legally forced to close, there will be grants worth up to £3000. mortgage holidays for homeowners are also being extended. there hasn‘t been additional support announced for the self—employed above two further winter grants from today that were previously announced. but helena, who started her ice cream business in cardiff in august last year, says she‘s among those who haven‘t been entitled to any financial help so far and still won‘t be. all of my scheduled work was cancelled and i‘ve lost an entire peak season because ice cream is very much a seasonal business. so it‘s been an incredibly worrying time for me and, of course, i don‘t know if or when i‘ll be allowed to return to work properly again.

a more severe lockdown, something like we saw back in the first part of this year, will mean that millions of self—employed people cannot work at all. they are not going to be able to survive on the 40% figure that's being offered at the moment, and we would urge the government to look at that very closely. a treasury spokesperson said the amount of profits covered by the self—employed grant had been increased from 20% to 40% and that unlike the furlough scheme it provided three months of support. katy austin, bbc news. we can talk now to helen dickinson, chief executive of the british retail consortium. hello, good morning to you. devastating members, i guess, for your members again with the prospect of shutting their doors. unless they are essential businesses. they are essential, for themselves, of course and for customers, but according to the government definition. as you

say, absolute nightmare dust in the lead up to christmas. this drawing ofan lead up to christmas. this drawing of an arbitrary line denying us and all the members of the public access to what is essential to me ought to you, in the lead up to christmas particularly, is likely to be different. particularly as a recent sage report highlighted that closing nonessential retail would have a minimal impact on transmission of the virus. that really, i think, is thanks to the investment in resource, time, and in millions and millions of pounds around ensuring that shops up and down the country, warehouses that support them, have been and are safe places. in terms of the period of managing this month, there is obviously all the different forms of financial support we heard about and i don‘t want to go into too much of that detail with you now. just in abroad rush, what

advice would you offer your members? because some of this they have been through before, some of them had been through all the different tiered approach but in terms of the concrete steps they need to do to make sure they are in a position to weather the next month? one of your earlier guests talked about groundhog day and that is a bit like what it feels like for many. back in april and may, those non—essential shops that were forced to close lost £1.6 billion of sales every week. and that number is going to be a bigger loss during the course of november because the last quarter is a much bigger quarter than the second quarter of the year, just because of the function of it, being in the lead up to christmas. it‘s great that the furlough scheme has been extended so obviously, you know, many retail businesses will be

going back to take advantage of that. but the challenge is they have other costs as well as those people costs stop they are facing the cliff edge of business rates being reinstated next april. so decisions around how many stores to put into that hibernation and how many actually will be forced to close for, end of. with the consequent impact onjob for, end of. with the consequent impact on job losses rather than people being on furlough, that is thejob people being on furlough, that is the job they will be working through and my inbox this morning is full of some real emotion of businesses, in terms of some of the really difficult decisions that they are going to have to take. and if you we re going to have to take. and if you were to offer a word from where you sit, your sector of the economy, to

ministers, what would it be?” sit, your sector of the economy, to ministers, what would it be? i think the most difficult thing for the industry as a whole is this arbitrary line that has been drawn around different types of business. so that line is going to determine which businesses come out of this stronger and which businesses come out of it either weaker or may not survive at all. and i think that has been the most difficult thing for those people to be able to accept so i think, it those people to be able to accept so i think, it big those people to be able to accept so i think, it big message, those people to be able to accept so ithink, it big message, well there are two big messages, one is depending on what happens after the end of november, whatever we do, don‘t draw arbitrary lines across the whole industry because there is no way that there is a solid line between different types of business

and the second, just really think about the breadth of that support. the furloughed scheme is great, there is a much wider need and we need to look at the totality of it and how it supports different sizes of business, and different types of business, and make sure as many ongoing, viable businesses, whether it‘s in retail or hospitality or leisure or any of the other sectors that have been impacted a lot, really do get the support that they need because we absolutely need to ensure that we have an economy that can ensure that we have an economy that ca n recover ensure that we have an economy that can recover quickly and people are able to retain theirjobs because if they cannot, then the knock—on consequences will be that much greater. helen dickinson, thank you very much. daniel tomlinson is senior economist from the resolution foundation. daniel, lets talk, if we can, since

helen brought this up, in a bit more detail about the furloughed scheme. it is kind of saved at the last possible moment! what do we know about how it will apply for the month of the lockdown as compared to how it‘s been used over the few months since it was first introduced, six months since first introduced? the furloughed scheme was saved from closing on the last day. it was meant to be in operation for. it was meant to finish at the end of october and be replaced by new and slightly less generous and a bit more complex scheme from the start of november. but instead, it‘s been extended and it‘s being put back to the terms that it was in place on in august. that‘s where employers have to contribute a small amount towards the cost of the furloughed wages stop only really small amount, they have to pay

pensions, national insurance contributions on that. broadly, it puts the scheme back to where it was when we were more towards the peak of this pandemic and its providing sufficient support to businesses to make it worthwhile for them to use it and it‘s also opt, it has maintained the support for employees at 80%, it was set to fall to two thirds of their wages but now it will stay at 80% for this next month. daniel, in terms of the impact that it is believed to have had during the first lockdown, in terms of sustaining jobs that might otherwise have been lost, has it been possible to make any calculation on that? yes. we have seen, the government has published statistics showing that. 90% of those who have come off furlough since it was introduced back in march have moved back into work, that‘s really good news, protected nine in ten of the jobs that were on

the scheme and people, particularly in retail, back injuly when the retail sector was opening up, 500,000 people in that month alone who worked in retail moved off furlough and back into work but the flip of that is there are some people and some particular groups that had been more likely to come off furlough but sadly move into unemployment so we know, for example, 20% of young people aged 16-25 example, 20% of young people aged 16—25 who were on furlough, have now moved into unemployment. and that is why it is still really welcome, the government has maintained the furloughed scheme but they also need to continue to think about the support for those who move into unemployment because that is where the income hits are the largest, thatis the income hits are the largest, that is where people who struggle the most and manage their finances, at the moment, it‘s a welcome boost to universal credit, support for lots of out of work families, it is set to phase out at the end of march so set to phase out at the end of march so it would be good for the government to commit to keeping that

in place. is there