this is bbc news, i'm simon mccoy. the headlines at two... austrian police make more arrests after four people are killed in vienna in what the chancellor called an islamist terror attack. it was an attack of hatred, hatred of our basic values, hatred of our way of life. hatred of our democracy where we are all equal in rights and dignity. we were in the city centre of vienna and we heard shots everywhere and the police, the helicopters were flying around us. we got really afraid so we decided to hide ourselves in the restaurant to hide ourselves in the restaurant to be safe there. the city of liverpool will be the first place in england to trial mass testing for coronavirus. criticism of the government's decision not to allow grassroots sports to continue during lockdown in england. the campaigning is over:

americans head to the polls choose their next president, with nearly 100 million early votes already cast. welsh football manager ryan giggs won't take charge of the team's next three games after being accused of assault — allegations he denies. and tributes to the comedian john sessions — best known for his work on spitting image — who's died at the age of 67. good afternoon and welcome to bbc news. police in austria have made 1a arrests following a suspected islamist terror attack in the capital vienna last night. two men and two women were shot dead, and more than 20 injured. the austrian chancellor sebastian kurz said the victims were ‘murdered in cold blood' — and called it ‘an attack born of hate'.

at least one gunman opened fire in the city centre at around eight o'clock local time. it happened near vienna's main synagogue, as people gathered in bars and restaurants hours before the start of new coronavirus restrictions. a second, shot dead by police, was convicted last year of trying to join the islamic state group in syria. speaking in the last hour, the austrian interior ministry said the attacker fooled the de—radicalisation programme. some viewers may find some of the images distressing in this report from our security correspondent frank gardner. vienna under attack. armed police reacted swiftly to reports of gunmen rampaging through the centre of the city, shooting at people indiscriminately as they sat in cafes and bars. this mobile phone footage shows the moment one of the gunmen opened fire. gunfire. police later shot dead one of the attackers and arrested another. the shooting took place close to the central synagogue. the rabbi saw what happened.

translation: i saw the heavily armed attacker with a rifle take aim and shoot at people outside bars and pubs last night. it was a warm evening and the night before the lockdown, so a lot of people wanted to go out. police have identified the dead gunman as a 20—year—old resident of balkan origin. his home has been searched and material linked to isis recovered. today austria's chancellor made this announcement. translation: it has been confirmed it was an islamic terrorist attack. it was an attack of hatred — hatred of our basic values, hatred of our way of life, hatred of our democracy where all people are equal in rights and dignity. austria's investigation is focusing on who else could have been behind this, the country's worst terrorist attack in 35 years. for residents of this normally tranquil city,

it's been a brutal shock. translation: they need to be punished very harshly. that's not funny, it's unacceptable. translation: it's terrible what happened, but i guess it was foreseeable after everything that's happened in other countries in recent years. all this just days after france suffered its own terrorist attacks — at a church in nice, and before that when this teacher, samuel paty, was beheaded by a jihadist after showing his class cartoons of the prophet muhammad in a lesson about free speech. those cartoons, and the french government's subsequent crackdown on islamist extremists, triggered mass demonstrations in some muslim majority countries. french goods are being boycotted in several places. today austria is in mourning, notjust for those killed in last night's attack but also for the end of a long period of relative calm.

and yet, incredibly, as mayhem reigned last night, the vienna philharmonic were locked in by the police and they played on. classical music plays. a symbol, perhaps, of europe's determination to stand up to terrorism. frank gardner, bbc news. mina al—lami isjihadist media specialist at bbc monitoring — shejoins me now. as frank was saying, we had seen attacks particularly in france but across europe and austria, not immune. yes, austria never really featured in jihadist immune. yes, austria never really featured injihadist messaging per se, but austria would fall under what they call crusaders. crusader countries, infidels, as they are

called. it is not surprising in that sense, however maybe with austria there was that element of surprise, security was beat up in france and belgium, possibly the uk. however, may be forjihadists and operatives there, austria was a soft target. and a filling of the de—radicalisation programme according to the interior ministry. and a rethink about relationships, particularly with the islamic state, where are the figures seem to be pointing at the moment. so far no group has claimed response ability for the attack and certainly from jihadist chatter online, supporters of isr happy with the attack and called the attack as heroes and lions. so far we don't have any evidence far between a link —— for a link between attackers. there has been entered and tackled for in the west of the prophet muhammad

cartoons. and the message they are sending is that islam is under attack and unless muslim men take action, respond, as they say the west will continue to push them around. given that context, that clearly there is a fear of other attacks to follow in europe? jihadists are putting out a lot of excitement at the moment and of course for them, they are going to put out these messages, left, centre and right, hoping someone will catch these messages and go and carry out attacks. the islamic state doesn't have a presence in europe however there are sympathisers and what it does have is that message. the message that is online, constantly there, trying to incite muslims to carry out attacks and for them, a backlash. we have a debate about immigration and political islam. that serves in the interests of

jihadists because they would love for there to be a backlash against muslim communities, so they could then come back and say, see, we told you. islam is under attack, muslims are under attack, and they have to react. they are hoping that would be their recruitment message. when you talk about recruitment and these messages, they are going out to young muslim men? yes. usually on social media, including on very obscure social media platforms, they are most likely addressed at young men and even when you look at the m essa g es men and even when you look at the messages and the attackers, they are tailored to inspire and to appeal to a young audience. good to talk to you, thank you for your time. regular coronavirus tests are to be offered to everyone living and working in liverpool from the end of the week. it's the government's first mass—testing trial involving a whole city. liverpool has one of the highest rates of coronavirus deaths in england. our health correspondent

katharine da costa reports. it's estimated two thirds of us get the virus without showing any symptoms. liverpool's had the highest infection rate. it's hoped by testing the whole city, authorities will be able to monitor the spread of the virus and quickly drive infections down. we know that asymptomatic transmission is a key issue for us, so the more we can help people to understand their personal status, the more we can encourage people to act appropriately and accordingly. from friday, existing swabs and new rapid swab tests — which can provide results within 15 minutes — will be offered to people with or without symptoms every week or so at 30 testing sites around the city. they'll be outside some hospitals, they'll be outside the universities, outside our schools, going to have mobile units going to care homes as well and to other places where we see there is a spike or an increase in covid—i9 activity. around one in 1000 people

will get a false positive, meaning someone's told they've got the virus when they haven't, but scientists say rapid tests could be a game changer. you know, people get pretty irritated when they get told that they passed somebody in the shops and they now have to quarantine for ten or 14 days, and with these tests it should be possible, as we get the system in place, to be able to test those people every two days and they can go about their business, provided they remain negative. 2000 military personnel will be deployed from thursday to help plan the logistics and deliver some of the tests. if this is a success, and i obviously really hope it will be and people in liverpool will get behind it, then we'll be looking to roll this out in other towns and cities and make millions more of these rapid tests available before christmas. the latest weekly figures from national stats agencies shows deaths in the uk are more than 10% higher than expected in the week to the 23rd of october. there were more than 12,000 deaths and almost all the excess, seen

here in red, was linked to covid—19. back in liverpool, the pilot will be closely monitored to see how many people come forward for testing and how many fully isolate when they are asked to. katharine da costa, bbc news. more now from our political correspondent ellie price. the government is under some pressure over the economy and what help they are going to give to businesses, not just in help they are going to give to businesses, notjust in england but across all four nations. yesterday we heard that the further scheme would continue throughout november while this four england white lockdown is introduced, and there would be extra help for people who are self—employed. we will see parity with some of the support they can claim from government, but there has been this row brewing in westminster and beyond about what that means for the devolved governments. different countries and

different devolved demonstrations, different devolved demonstrations, different rules. in scotland there is no national lockdown planned yet, in wales there is a two—week circuit breaker going on that had already started and ended before the england white lockdown ends. the question is, what does that mean for the furlough? can the devolved nations access that if they want to go into access that if they want to go into a national lockdown after england comes out of it? that doesn't seem to be entirely clear. yesterday the prime minister said the further scheme is a uk—wide scheme and those devolved nations can access it in the future, but that doesn't seem to have been total clarity when asked, whether that means england is outside of it. it was asked of the chief secretary to the treasury today in the commons, he didn't directly a nswer today in the commons, he didn't directly answer it but simply said it would be available in the future. it is something nicola sturgeon in scotla nd it is something nicola sturgeon in scotland has been asking the government. she said warm woolly words don't pay people's wages and

that has been the concern here for the opposition parties today. thank you very much. barry mccormick is the director of the centre for health service economics and 0rganisation at the university of oxford and , a former chief economist in the department of health. hejoins me now. good afternoon. we can talk about what the government is doing, but i suspect a lot of people will say it is about the timing of this. do you think the action packed as being enhanced has come too late? personally know. i am not sure that is the case. i was reasonably content with the projections from the warwick group of epidemiologists that were put out about two and a half ago. at that point, it looked as though the projected hospital admissions, deaths, infections were running somewhat lower than the cmo

discussed on saturday evening. so, i think until we have all had a chance to digest that new evidence, i don't feel it is especially late. it is a difficult decision to take, cath bala nces difficult decision to take, cath balances of considerations, but i didn't feel it was especially late. furthermore, i thought we were still getting evidence on the efficacy of tier 3. slight chinks of light coming from the data from the northern cities where there seemed to be some evidence of a flattening of the rise of infections. we are waiting to hear from the patrick valla nce waiting to hear from the patrick vallance and chris whitty, they are giving evidence in about 20 minutes. what question would you want to put from them? i thinki what question would you want to put from them? i think i would like to hear from them about what evidence convinced them that the period since

0ctober convinced them that the period since october 17th convinced them that the period since 0ctober17th of the tier 3 in the northern cities was not working. what convinced them in that relatively short period of time that the evidence made it clear to them we need to do something more? the difficult decision, as you put it, thatis difficult decision, as you put it, that is an understatement of the balance of the damage done to the economy and the balance of damage to people's health and indeed their own lives. it is a political call. i am just wondering if you think it is heading in the right direction? yes. i do. heading in the right direction? yes. ido.i heading in the right direction? yes. i do. i don't think there is reason to believe that ministers are not aware of both sides of that equation. i think i do have a concern that perhaps the epidemiological evidence is not

being wrapped into a broader assessment that is normally done under the government impact assessment every time we make major decisions, and in my own thinking about it, i have made that point. that was something that was asked for by graham brady in the commons yesterday. i am wondering in terms of the figures we saw on saturday night, the criticism would seem to be there was an element of cherry picking, that the grass we saw pretty much backed up the arguments that were put forward by the two government advisers. that were put forward by the two government adviserslj that were put forward by the two government advisers. i think we need to recognise that the cmo is in a very difficult position because the epidemiological models that we are studying, i say we, i am an economist, i don't study them, but are being studied by epidemiologists, are models where there is a great deal of uncertainty on outcome. when there is

uncertainty on outcome and a political leader it says, tell me the trajectory that will make it 95% sure we will not go above that, it could be a very high level of disease that may have to be protected for and allowed for. when you are dealing with models that are not very, very precise, then trying to be reasonably sure that you are containing a disease becomes more and more difficult. i think we have to have moments of understanding for the position that the cmo and patrick vallance are in. it is not easy being an epidemiologist or reporting their work at this time. putting the political on top of that and taking keir starmer‘s argument yesterday that the government should have acted during half term, because theissue have acted during half term, because the issue of education, which seems to be untouchable in terms of some parts of the government, and yet common sense would suggest having children back at school during a

pandemic like this could create problems. well, i do think that the schooling issue is a tough one. i don't agree that on the basis of the projections that we had three weeks ago that it would have been obviously a good decision to return toa obviously a good decision to return to a lockdown of the form that we had in april, may and june. indeed, i think one of the good things about this lockdown is that it has been focused rather more on letting the economy continue to work while closing down unnecessary transmissions in social environments. i think that is the right direction to take it. but on the schooling issue, i think this may be the achilles' heel of the plan going forward because we do have more infections in schools than we had at the last lockdown. and so, undoubtedly, there is going to be more transmissions to all the

members of staff in those schools andi members of staff in those schools and i think we need to recognise they are working without the protected kit that we expect all nurses and clinicians in the nhs to be using at this time. i think there needs to be an element of innovation and creativity here, to think about how we can give school teachers, especially those working with over 14—year—olds, more protection than they might otherwise get. 0therwise, they might otherwise get. 0therwise, the schools will really be unwilling and unable to deliver the services that are needed to keep members of the public in work. thank you very much. my pleasure. so, from thursday pubs, restaurants, gyms and nonessential shops will close for four weeks, which could have a huge effect on businesses around the country. our business correspondent vivienne nunisjoins me now.

we are hearing from business owners right around england about how worried they are going into this four—week lockdown starting on thursday. some of them will be able to move some of their goods online entry that way, but many of those, especially in the service sector, hairdressers for example, will not be able to and that is why we are seeing predictions from analysts in the uk economy. it is likely to shrink around 3% of those four weeks. 0ne shrink around 3% of those four weeks. one of those business owners who is grappling with the challenges ofan upcoming who is grappling with the challenges of an upcoming lockdown is here. she is the head brewer at the brewery called wild card brewery in east london which was set up in 2012. thank you forjoining us. you are a business that owns two byes as well as making beers. sounds like a pretty off—line business normally. how are you feeling going into the second lockdown and are you better prepared than you were in the beginning of the year? it is a very scary time to be honest with you. i think the benefits of this time

around versus last time around is it is not a surprise. we managed to set up is not a surprise. we managed to set up an online shop really quickly la st up an online shop really quickly last time within 24 hours, and we have kept that going, rumbling in the background, kind of expecting something like this to happen again. we are able to basically ramp that up we are able to basically ramp that up and move stuff around and hopefully try to sell as much beer as we can that way because we cannot do it through the bars any more. do you think you will be selling enough beer that way? will you be able to cover costs and turn a profit?l profit? i don't know about that this year. we are going to do our best is the answer, and i think our key priorities at the moment is keeping this... it looks like we have lost you there. never mind. 0h, we are back? no? tell me about your staff.

are you going to further those and be entitled to any government grants? yeah, both of our bars, we are going to be following. that is something positive that boris johnson announced and really great, but with regards to whether we are going to be able to do the same as we did last time, i think it all remains to be seen. with christmas coming up, which is very unknown at the moment, the answer is we are going to do our best and sell as much as we can do our online shop and try to keep our staff in work. 0k, thank you very much forjoining us. we got there. thank you very much. and coming up at around 20 to four today, we'll be answering your questions on how you will be affected by the lockdown sian griffiths who lead the hong kong government's enquiry into sars — and dr chris smith, virologist from the naked scientists podcast will be here to answer your questions. you can get involved

by sending your questions to ‘yourquestions@bbc.co.uk‘ or tweeting us using the hash tag bbc your questions. it's election day in the united states and polls have started to open for the presidential election. donald trump and his democratic challengerjoe biden spent the final hours of the campaign in the swing states that could decide the result. national polls suggest a firm lead for mr biden, but the race is tighter in the key battle grounds. more than 98 million people have already taken part in early voting ben wright reports. across the united states, in person and by mail, americans have voted in vast numbers already. nearly 100 million people have cast their ballots early and more will have their say at polling stations today. for both candidates, monday saw a final sprint for votes around key swing states and both made campaign stops in pennsylvania. lagging in the polls, donald trump has been rallying his supporters at a punishing pace. the president surprised the world

by winning four years ago and believes he can do so again. so get your friends, get your family, get your neighbours, get your co—workers, grab your boss by the tie and say, come on, boss. we've got to get out and vote, get out and vote. and you're going to have a day tomorrow, the likes of which i think people haven't seen in a long time. his democratic rivaljoe biden has also been campaigning intensely in pennsylvania, arguing america must come together and get a grip on the pandemic. the first step to beating the virus is defeating donald trump. car horns blaring. it always matters who sits in the white house, but the choice facing americans today is stark. this feels like the most pivotal presidential election in decades and the huge early voting turnout reflects that. it is also a big test for america's democracy and whether it can peacefully steer this nation

through a deeply polarised moment. # i'm off the deep end. # watch as i dive in. # i'll never...#. tonight, lady gaga joined joe biden at a drive—in campaign event in pittsburgh. after decades in public life, mr biden could be on the cusp of the presidency. donald trump is in the fight of his life, still thrilling his crowds, still predicting possible bedlam after the election. this evening he stopped in wisconsin before wrapping up his travels in michigan. a campaign going to the wire. ben wright, bbc news, washington. how will the us election result affect the country's relationship with the uk — especially during brexit? 0ur reality check correspondent chris morris is here and has been finding out. there are some long—standing relationships between the united states and the uk on things like security, intelligence and defence, which are going to continue no matter who wins the

presidential election. but politics matters. and it's worth asking what the election could mean for this country as it moves into a post—brexit world. officials in some european governments suspect borisjohnson is waiting to see the political outcome in the us before deciding whether to push for a trade deal with the eu this year, or settle for no deal. downing street has denied this — with the prime minister saying specifically: "the two things are entirely separate." but there's not much doubt that while mr trump might be enthusiastic about no deal, and a more radical uk split with the rest of europe, mr biden is not. he thinks brexit was a mistake. and his position will be much closer to the eu, and more specifically the irish view, of what brexit means. mr biden is aligned with the powerful irish lobby in congress, which would take a very dim view of any attempt to roll back the terms of the northern ireland protocol, in the brexit withdrawal agreement. and that matters for the uk's separate trade negotiations with washington. last year the us accounted for 20%

of uk exports and 13% of uk imports. but congressional democrats have said there'd be little hope of an early free trade deal with the uk, if the brexit agreement on ireland isn't respected. donald trump has been pushing to get a deal done — but whether it's a republican or a democrat in the white house, any president is going to strike a hard bargain. and that's one of the reasons why personal relationships matter. donald trump has repeatedly boosted borisjohnson and called him "‘britain trump'. joe biden seems to agree with the description, but in a less flattering way. after the prime minister won last year's general election mr biden called him "a physical and emotional clone" of the president. and plenty of influential democrats still feel the same. ben rhodes, who was barack 0bama's deputy national security advisor when mr biden was vice—president, recently wrote on twitter: "i'm old enough to remember when borisjohnson said 0bama opposed brexit because he was

kenyan." so if mr biden wins, some bridge—building might be needed. but next year the uk will play a big global role — chairing both the g7 group of industrialised nations, and the big un climate summit cop—26. a starring role in restoring cooperation between western allies, and joint leadership on climate change, could mean past disagreements are quickly forgotten. donald trump's views on climate change, on the other hand, might be far more difficult for the uk to manage. so you can find pluses and minuses whoever wins, but under president trump thejohnson government has been america's best friend in europe. if it's to be a biden presidency, though, the uk would be heading into a new relationship with europe with a very different administration in washington as well. you canjoin us tonight from 11.30pm for our us election special results programme on bbc one and the bbc news channel,

or tune into bbc radio 4from 10pm. and you can follow all the expert analysis online as the results come in at bbc.co.uk/news and on the bbc news app. the comedian and actor john sessions has died, aged 67. he was best known for his work on spitting image and whose line is it anyway?. he was also a character actor, appearing in films like kenneth branagh‘s henry the fifth and tv series including itv‘s victoria. the wales manager ryan giggs has denied an allegation of assault — and says he's cooperating with police enquiries — after he was arrested on suspicion of assaulting his girlfriend. and in the past hour it's been announced giggs won't be involved in the upcoming international camp for the wales team. earlier i heard from our sports news reporter laura scott: what we know is that it emerged that

shortly after 10pm on sunday night police were called to reports of a disturbance at ryan giggs‘s home in sa lfo rd. disturbance at ryan giggs‘s home in salford. the former manchester united player was arrested on suspicion of actual bodily harm and assault, but he has been released on bail pending further inquiries. according to greater manchester police, a woman in her 30s, believed to be his girlfriend, sustained minor injuries but didn't require further treatment. a statement on behalf of his representatives says mrgiggs behalf of his representatives says mr giggs denies all allegations of assault made against him but he is cooperating with the police and will assist them in their ongoing investigations. the football association of wales postponed a squad announcement this morning and in the last few minutes, they are saying in the next three games against the united states, finland and the republic of ireland, wales will be without ryan giggs seeing area will be without ryan giggs seeing are a great immediate priority is preparing the team for the upcoming international matches.

the patrick vallance and professor chris whitty are about to answer questions from mps on the science and technology select committee, the chairman is introducing them now. let'sjoin chairman is introducing them now. let's join the committee now. without the proposed new measures, how many deaths a day you expect the peak to be this winter?|j how many deaths a day you expect the peak to be this winter? i think it's very difficult to put numbers on an exact peak and when that occurs. what we can see though is that the are remains above one everywhere and the epidemic continues to grow. if you take the six—week forward projection, part of the modelling where you get the greatest reliability because in any model which relies on data, theory and assumptions the further you go out the more unlikely it is you get the

number exactly right, but as you come near you get more accuracy and those six—week projections which the modelling groups have been looking at for the past number of weeks have turned out to be pretty good in terms of tracking what happens. they look as though over that period you would expect the number of deaths perhaps have nothing changed, we'd expect the number of hospitalisations to preach the first wave number probably towards the end of november and you'd expect the number of deaths to potentially equal the first wave numbers somewhere in mid—december. so that's the kind of range you think of in terms of the trajectory if nothing changed from when it was now. so

before these measures are introduced. yes. can you explain how this relates to the chart you presented which had some different curves from different research groups? when that was presented on saturday, those were scenarios that we re saturday, those were scenarios that were put together to try to look at what a new reasonable worst case scenario might look like and they are from a couple of weeks ago. they are from a couple of weeks ago. they are longer term modelling so they come with all the caveats in terms of the accuracy and what you can see is that there are different groups that have done those scenarios and they have made assumptions and they we re they have made assumptions and they were the r number would be between 1.3 and 1.5 and it might go up 10% over the winter and they modelled on that basis and you can see the

different groups came up with different groups came up with different takes as a result of that. that would be to inform a reasonable worst case scenario. another example would be if you go back tojune there was a reasonable worst case scenario for the winter which came up scenario for the winter which came up with higher numbers at that point. so that curve would lead into the six weeks projections which are the six weeks projections which are the ones which carry more validity in terms of the numbers. but they are still a model so they do project forward for that period and you see quite quickly we reach the similar sort of numbers as the first wave. the six—week ones are integrated across all of the models. is there a consensus view is as to when the peak will be, assuming these new measures than coming? the consensus statement of the six weeks medium

term projections are from all of the modelling groups projected forward over that six—week period. the other graph is something that would come into a reasonable worst case scenario consensus if that is what the contingency wants. at the moment thatis the contingency wants. at the moment that is not a consensus, its independent groups modelling against a series of assumptions. so sage has not come to a consensus view as to what the modelling predictions would be? for the six weeks, yes. beyond that, no. looking at the nhs capacity, without the proposed measures being taken when he would expect the acute bed capacity of the nhs to be used up through coronavirus patients? clearly what the group can do is model forward the group can do is model forward the epidemic. those are then

provided to the nhs and the nhs capacity modelling because we don't have the insights into the bed capacity, but the sorts of numbers if you look at where the six weeks ta kes you if you look at where the six weeks takes you suggests that the first wave peak equivalent is somewhere at a national level towards the end of november with greater pressure thereafter. but that won't be even across the uk so some hospitals are clearly under pressure now and others will be later. so again it's an average. it's also important that the advice i've been given is not based on significant forward modelling, it's based on what has happened and what is observable. if you look at the number of eight ——

in patients on the 7th of september 536 cases but by the time you get to the beginning of october over 2500. as of today it's actually reached 10,000 people in hospital. so you don't need too much modelling to tell you you are on an exponential u pwa rd tell you you are on an exponential upward curve of beds and this is repeated when it comes to the ons data looking at incidents over time which has followed a very clear u pwa rd which has followed a very clear upward trend. what we know with all epidemics is what you get it's a doubling. epidemics are either doubling. epidemics are either doubling or halving in this is currently doubling. it's doubling at different rates around the country and bits of the country are starting at different stages. there are probably two things to say about beds. the first is the starting point in terms of how full they are now is currently very variable. so

there are some hospitals particularly in the north of england which have now reached levels of coronavirus occupancy higher than they have in the first wave and a worry is that although in those areas it looks as if the increase in rates is flattening, it has not falle n rates is flattening, it has not fallen below one. if they carry on going up from this very high base they would get into serious trouble on impatience very quickly. there are other bits of the country like the south—west where the rate of increase is faster than in the north now on the bed capacity is lower so although they look further away at the moment they could hit difficulties relatively quickly. the other thing is there are several different barriers you go through in terms of hitting capacity in the nhs

and the first thing we would start to have to do and are already having to have to do and are already having to do in some areas as cancelling nonurgent elective care. then you go onto starting to impinge on urgent but nonemergency care. then you get into the acute care being constrained and finally into the intensive care capacity being used up. that happens in sequence but we are already seeing in parts of the country having to cancel nonurgent emergency care and if this continues people worry about all the non—coronavirus care being affected and the argument on this is the wrong way and the argument on this is the wrong way round. the way you prevent those services being impinged on and potentially being slowed right down or cancelled is to keep the corona rotavirus rates down. and one of the

slides sir patrick presented on saturday looking at projected bed usage was that the spring peak would be exceeded without these new measures on the 20th of november. the extra beds that would be a few days later and even with the extra capacity that comes from cancelling operations that would be early in december. does that reflect your joint view of what would happen to hospital capacity usage without these measures? there is some evidence of some slowing particularly in the north—east and the north—west. that might push that out in time, but until you start to see rates falling it's a matter of timing. the trouble about things

that double you move from small figures to large numbers quickly. your are advisers rather than decision makers. you give advice to ministers. but is it yourjoint view that without these measures there is a serious risk that the nhs intensive care capacity would be overrun? this slide is from the nhs so this is the nhs view of what would happen. do you agree with it? yes. it's a model but yes. as the chief scientific adviser to the prime minister your advice would be based on this modelling that there isa based on this modelling that there is a serious prospect of the intensive care capacity of the nhs

being overrun within the period to which this graph is? if nothing is done, yes. the importance of the enquiries into these full capacities because to accept ministers decide and advisers advise, in practice if the advice from advisers to the prime minister is that the capacity of the nhs is likely to be overrun within weeks, that is quite difficult advice to go against and thatis difficult advice to go against and that is the reason why there is an interest in understanding the basis of the advice. it's not really optional advice in that sense. that was the forecasting from the nhs and thatis was the forecasting from the nhs and that is what they said. it's what we say from the modelling but we can't

deal with nhs capacity. say from the modelling but we can't dealwith nhs capacity. but say from the modelling but we can't deal with nhs capacity. but your advice to the prime minister and the government based on nhs data and the modelling data was this is a serious prospect in a serious risk. yes. not inevitable. the action is already being taken by people are having an effect but our view is that it's just a matter of time once the r number is above one it will only go up. do these forecasts and projections include the impact of the tiered restrictions that began in parts of the country on the 14th of october? they won't yet be feeding through fully into the numbers in my view. so it's not a

question of whether, the question might be a question of when. the only part of the country where at the moment i think there is realistic evidence that the numbers have flattened where the r number is approaching one is in terms of regions of the north—east. but it is still as far as we can tell going up, albeit at a much lower rate. so this is quite a widely held view. what you are indicating is that putting exact dates on these things is almost impossible. the government response to the fact they see a problem locally and so neither patrick nor i or anyone advising government would say this is definitely going to happen on this date. people who give that degree of certainty don't agree —— don't understand how this modelling

properly works. but the inevitability that if your r number remains above one, once you've got to the high level of bed usage you've got very little headroom so quite a small r number can take you today. we are looking forward in a bad way to the fact that the most difficult time for respiratory viruses we all know is over the winter months. we haven't fully got into them so the chances thing will improve without action between now and the next few months are quite low. so if you are giving advice to ministers that has to be the advice you give. ministers then have to make decisions, not just you give. ministers then have to make decisions, notjust on that advice, they have to use other things. these are big social and economic impacts. it's only right that elected ministers make these decisions. i think quite strongly

that it decisions. i think quite strongly thatitis decisions. i think quite strongly that it is really important these deeply difficult measures are decided by ministers. deeply difficult measures are decided by ministerslj deeply difficult measures are decided by ministers. i understand that and the point i have made as if the nhs can cope and things can be accommodated then there are decisions ministers can make about the economy. it's more difficult to make choices and decisions if the bottom line is that people are going to be dying in the car parks of hospitals. but there is a specific issue i want to explore. i understand that specific dates are not possible to describe, but given the presentation that was made and the presentation that was made and the analysis that was made that justifies action that the houses of parliament are considering this week, that presentation and analysis

was given on the 31st of october. surely it would be reasonable for that analysis to include an assessment of the prospective impact of measures that were decided many weeks before and became operational on the 9th of october. why is the experience of measures taken and are permitted on the 9th of october not factored in to the analysis that you shared with the country on the 31st of october? it is to the extent the medium—term projections that were approved were approved on thursday so they are the latest estimate on the medium—term projections taking into account all the data they had until that moment. into account all the data they had untilthat moment. so into account all the data they had until that moment. so they include an assessment of the impact of the tiered restrictions. as far as those

have had that impact. they were looking at that date at the data they had at that moment but that data is also backward looking. so they are not going to be able to project everything that happens as a result of changes that are not yet known. we know what those restrictions were and they were chosen on the basis presumably they we re chosen on the basis presumably they were going to have an impact on the prevalence and hospitalisation and death. you must have an assessment of what was likely or what they hoped to achieve and there is at least two weeks of data so were they factored into their projections of the impact on the nhs that was presented on the 31st of october? they are factored in and the forward

projection is the best estimate by the modelling group of what would happen going forward. if you look at the performance of the six week projections over the last month the actual data has tracked very closely to the projections. suggesting that they are pretty good in terms of being able to look forward and taking into account what would happen. but they can't be perfect because no more deliveries. so what has been the impact of these tiered restrictions that were introduced earlier in october? how much have they reduced the number of model deaths by or how far back have the pushed the prospective pig?m deaths by or how far back have the pushed the prospective pig? it is difficult to be confident about how

fartheir difficult to be confident about how far their effect has gone. i am confident that their two has had an effect and that t3 has had a bigger effect. the community in the north and the midlands where most of these are and london in tier 2 have responded remarkably to this. because of that i am confident that rates are substantially lower than they would have been had those activities not happened. but the early indications we have our that this is not achieved getting the r number below one and it is still doubling over a longer period of time. it's not possible to put a fix on that but as i've said we've now got hospitals already, like in liverpool, which are above their previous peak and it doesn't take much increase from that until you

run into serious trouble. so the ability to say let's wait a few weeks and see what happens, the problem is, the people in hospital now were problem is, the people in hospital now were infected several weeks ago so there is a long lead time between taking action and having an effect on reducing the number of people going into hospital and intensive care. therefore, if you wait too long you create a backlog where the rates are still going up and we don't have in my view clear evidence that the r number is below one a nyway that the r number is below one anyway where we have high rates. that is a reality which i think my nhs colleagues in the north of england would say they recognise.” understand that effect on admissions and ultimately deaths, but it's the case in liverpool for example that

the peak level of positive tests was around the time of the introduction of tier 3, the 9th of october, around three and half thousand positive tests a day, and the most recent rolling average has come down since that peak and it about 1900. so falling towards about half of that rate. so does that indicate in your view that the t3 restrictions are working and has that been fully ca ptu red are working and has that been fully captured in the modelling that has been put forward to justify the new national restrictions? looking at the data in the north of england and i tend to look back at a data because i find showed forward

projections difficult and i'm more interested in how the data is playing out in real time and what we are seeing is that the rates are, particularly in younger people, have falle n particularly in younger people, have fallen and that is a combination of probably some slight reduction in u pta ke probably some slight reduction in uptake but also some levelling off. sol uptake but also some levelling off. so i think there is a real effect and an artificial effect. but we are not seeing that reliably in the older age bands as it moved up through the age bands and that's important because the rates falling on people in their 20s will have little impact on the nhs. a few people in the 20s get into serious trouble and more may have more long—term problems but the rates are still steadily tracking up in all the data i have seen in the older age groups who are the ones likely to translate into the

hospitalisations. sol to translate into the hospitalisations. so i think it would be, it would require an extraordinary degree of confidence that the overall data were translating through to say these are still going up in the age groups who are most vulnerable to having severe outcomes and in some cases having bad outcomes. so it's that age differential which is not necessarily captured in the headline figures and people who are spending theirtime figures and people who are spending their time looking at hundreds of data and they see the headline that is going down but it's not reassuring. there is this quite marked aged differential. so you think the fall in positive tests in places like liverpool is not

reflected in the prevalence amongst older people? correct. this is a differential effect. my hope is that it is now levelling off in the older ages and there is some evidence that may be beginning to happen. but it's not to the point where you can reliably say it may be going lower than that because it's not what we're seeing in these older age groups. i would we're seeing in these older age groups. iwould be we're seeing in these older age groups. i would be delighted obviously if the answer was they we re obviously if the answer was they were going down faster than the data currently are showing and there is always a bit of a data lag and if that was the case that would be very good news. but i think it would be very imprudent to work on that basis. so the implication is that these local lockdown is are not working for older people. the implication is that with all the

tiering it has slowed things down from where they would have been otherwise. that would be myjudgment as to where we are and more in tier 2and tieri as to where we are and more in tier 2 and tieri and more in tier 3 events hereto. that is due to the work of individuals taking difficult social decisions for quite long periods in the north and we should not forget how long some of them have been in these measures. but there is no evidence in my view at this point but in the older age groups the r number is reliably falling below one. it may be in some places approaching one and the doubling time is going out in time but that is not the same as the doubling time having and that is what you want to see. people that have suffered restrictions for a long period of time, they would want to be reassured that their experience is being reflected in the

model. would you publish the nhs capacity usage model that leaves behind these figures because it is a pivotal one for the measures? the data i was talking but was not nhs data. they were test and trace data. it's not my data to release but from my point of view it should be open and available. almost all of the key headlines are open. i am trying to avoid promising something i can't guarantee to deliver.” avoid promising something i can't guarantee to deliver. i want to because i want people to see that i'm in favourof because i want people to see that i'm in favour of people seeing the

data. following up on your point about infections increasing in the elderly. what is your thinking criteria? is elderly. what is your thinking criteria ? is it elderly. what is your thinking criteria? is it the rate of infection in elderly people? the rate of infection in elderly people tells you what's going to happen in terms of a small proportion but a significant number of people having severe significant number of people having severe effects. that's the strongest predictor of what will happen in the nhs is what has happened for people over the age of 60. it is much greater for those in the 70s and 80s. but the r number is giving you a sense of is this doubling or is it

having —— housing and at this point in time the r number is either above one or tending towards one but not falling at this point. that is the figure that comes out. maybe patrick is in figure that comes out. maybe patrick isina figure that comes out. maybe patrick is in a better position to talk about that but the r number is a summary figure and what you can see is it's either rising or falling on thatis is it's either rising or falling on that is the key question.” understand the r number is a composite figure but what i'm really act —— asking is there are a lot of effect —— infections amongst older people and hospitalisations so which is the key factor in your recommendation? in the immediate term numberof recommendation? in the immediate term number of people currently infected is of the key thing but the r numberwill infected is of the key thing but the r number will tell you you've got these number of infections now but if you —— if it was 0.8 would be delighted and that would tell me if

i look forward to of three weeks the numbers of people with new cases would be going down. but currently asi would be going down. but currently as i say they are doubling in most places. professor chris whitty said before that for anyone familiar with modelling, it was clear what was going on. the vast majority of people in this country are not familiar with modelling. was it sensible or fair to put forward the graph with 4000 deaths a day without the caveats, pictures tell a much more powerful story than numbers do. that will have threatened a lot of people. —— frightened. wouldn't it have been better both to give the

source starter on that and explain in great detail not that it was modelling, that the figures that had gone into it were six weeks old.” think a position to that end if that didn't come across, i regret that but i positioned that as a scenario from a couple of weeks ago based on an assumption to try and give a new reasonable worst—case scenario, and those figures therefore were not as reliable as the six week figure at which i spent time talking about. there figures were ones done by major academic groups based on those assumptions, and in the spirit of trying to make sure things are shared and open, the things we have seen. it is important that people seen. it is important that people see that. i don't think people see that. certainly, if you look in both the serious broadsheet press and the

more popular tabloids, people have been horrified of the way that was presented. thought it was a biased way of presenting it and not at all clear. you must realise if you put a graph on 4000 deaths a day, that is going to be the message that the vast majority of people to come. do you regret that at all?” vast majority of people to come. do you regret that at all? i think the aim of the presentation was to try and get as much of the information asa and get as much of the information as a kit out there. six week projections were the ones that are important in terms of their reliability. those were models for the reasonable worst—case scenario and that is something people have been interested in, and they were modelled at the time to try and project that. they came from the very significant academic groups and they are no more than a model of the reasonable worst—case scenario based upon assumptions, and the further models go out, the more reliable the

numbers are and the more it becomes a qualitative exercise to look at the shape of things. i think it is important people understand and see what that is being looked at by the modellers who believe these things are important to have in the reasonable worst—case scenario. are important to have in the reasonable worst-case scenario. you don't think you have just frightened people who do not have your scientific background and understanding of models?” scientific background and understanding of models? i hope not. that is certainly not the aim. i will say that in a sense we went through this a bit on the 20th or zist through this a bit on the 20th or 21st of september, when we said that we thought things could be headed towards 50,000 cases per day, if we had a doubling. again it was a scenario, not a prediction, and that deaths might reach 200. the same argument that was somehow there to

scare people was put to those slides, it wasn't there. it was to give a scenario. as it happened, the numbers turned out to be very close to that by the time we got there. it is very difficult to project forward ina way is very difficult to project forward in a way that doesn't inevitably lead to a problem of, is that real? no, it is a model, but it is what we need to understand because this is a disease which is spreading, like all epidemics, in a way that will affect us in weeks to come, but isn't felt today. i think there is a balance between trying to explain what may between trying to explain what may be coming, based on things, as chris has said, as far as possible on what data you have today, which is why things were presented as they were, to say, here is a data from today and what is happening in hospitals today, but giving an illustration of what may happen in the future is an

important part of this. the tendency otherwise is to wait and say, we will find out in a few week's time, by which time you have got another three orfour by which time you have got another three or four weeks of cases. one reason for having a lot done is to save lives, and so you can improve test intros and other parts of the service. in terms of your recommendations, you are very clear in your models, the information you provided, what numbers you want to present to the prime minister and to the public, he always put the caveat on, we are “— the public, he always put the caveat on, we are —— of economic consequences and health impacts. that is never quantified. in the paperon that is never quantified. in the paper on april the 8th, it was a

quantification of some of the deaths that will be caused by the failure to treat cancer. i am not going to go through the full list, and the consequences of poverty on morbidity. why do you not present both sides of the equation in numbers? chris may want to come in. the people you referred to was a paper we asked to come forward from ons and others to look at the overall effect. i think that was a very important paper and that is being updated. that is being updated and chris may want to say more about that. it is very clear that sage is there to provide the science advice and the treasury and cabinet office either to bring in the other parts of the equation, especially on the economy. i don't think it is right to think that sage will be the place

where you integrate all of this and come out with a single number. we have a particular part of this to look after and the rest needs to be integrated at cabinet office level, and ultimately ministers need to look at all those other points. it is an interesting question, the science advice is very clear in the public domain. it is clear the public domain. it is clear the public and you can see it and question it. the other advice is less visible. it is more difficult to a nswer less visible. it is more difficult to answer those questions. the advice is lopsided, isn't it? i would be interested in seeing the updated paper. it projected over 200,000 deaths over a period, not over a year, but over a period of time. ithink over a year, but over a period of time. i think the public would be very surprised to see that was the other side of the equation. at the very least, i can accept that you need economists to do it in all sorts of other specialists, but don't you feel a responsible tea to

make sure people know there is another side? i think there is a danger that people watching this will have a misapprehension. most of the additional deaths stack up because you don't deal with covid. there are four different ways in which this causes mortality. i will go through them. i think this is a really critical point which has been wholly misunderstood in some areas. there is the direct desk covid, that is easy to understand. the second group, which hopefully we will not get to, i deaths from emergency services being overwhelmed. we do not have that in the first wave and we have every intention of trying to avoid it in the second wave. the third group are things which happen because of covid putting pressure on the service, you have to cancel elective other urgent care. those

are deaths, that might be cardiovascular or in the medium term cancer. those are on the covid side of the equation and then you have got some which are around a lot done itself, which are things like an increase on mental health problems. the final ones which i the very important ones, i'd economic ones, which counter intuitively immediate effect is not actually negative. in the long term that is important. that is the bit that is on the other side of the equation. if you are in public health, caring about increasing deprivation is central to what you do. it is critical. i have always tried to say that is the other side of the equation, but the cancer deaths and cardiovascular ones are on the covid site. if you don't deal with it, there are going to get worse. one could argue, that because of the pressure of covid, some of the services are reduced,

but some of those services are produced because service is withdrawn, not directly because of covid. it is a more complete it equation than that. my point was shouldn't that somewhere in the syste m shouldn't that somewhere in the system depicted together, whichever side of the equation, and when you do that? you are right, it needs to come together. it needs to come together with the economic analysis and that isn't something that takes place in sage and nor should it. it needs to come together in the cabinet office. you have been very good at publishing at the request of the committee and the others, the evidence that sage has considered. this week shows it would be good to have the real—time integration, but well... can you arrange for that economic analysis to be published in the same way? no, i cannot. his decision is it? you would have to ta ke decision is it? you would have to take that up with ministers. just

one other question, you mentioned several times divisible whiskey scenario. that has been leaked than published. —— the worst case scenario. it is not a document to publish. do think that should be published? i think there is an advantage in having as much published as possible. the point mr stringer was making which i agree with is there is a danger in extreme forward rejections that people then misinterpret them as this is what is going to happen, and as you say, get unduly worried by something which is not intended to happen. the whole point is to say we need to stop this happening. ican point is to say we need to stop this happening. i can understand why it would give pause, i am personally in favour of publishing as much as possible, but i wanted any sense to reflect back the point mr stringer

making, which has some force has to be balanced against it. good afternoon. sorry for the slightly forensic tone, but these are very grave matters. some of the most grave matters. some of the most grave matters. some of the most grave matters we as a member of parliament are of a are ever called to build upon. i want to stay with slide three, one of those he presented on sunday, the one is cold and wintry scenarios. when you look that, that blue line is a clear outlier. it's peak is a must double the level of the next highest scenario. the other three scenarios all have their own peak forecast line within a range of about 20% of each other, so it really is very different in terms of the slide that you present. if you didn't have that blue line, you would have to change the scale. at the time you presented that data to the prime minister, did you yourself understand the assumptions behind the blue line that we now know is the public health england cambridge model?”

think what we try to do when we present data from sage is to look at the integrated spiral outwards and thatis the integrated spiral outwards and that is the six weeks one and in due course, will be the integrated reasonable whiskey scenario. that's light is of independent groups and what they have modelled. as you can see, there is a lot of variability in that slide with most of the groups coming out on the right—hand side and one being left and higher. that is an outlier for the reasons of the way in which they have done the model and assumptions. that is the model and assumptions. that is the reason why we tend to go for integrated views, not to go for individual group projections. do you know what it is in those assumptions that produces that very different shape to that current? the assumptions underlying the models will be published in full and so it will be published in full and so it will be published in full and so it will be possible to look at the

reasons why curbs differ. either in the public domain now before the vote we have to make tomorrow? the intention is to get the information on the models out as soon as possible. i don't know when that is coming out, but very soon. it would have to be today. there are some documents coming out today. they are not ours so they will need to come out from the groups.” not ours so they will need to come out from the groups. i understand that. it would certainly be very helpful to colleagues if it was. when you looked at that chart, it forecasted more than 4000 deaths a day a peak which i don't think any country in the world has seen that rate of deaths, but also if you then bring in that to today and the time you are representing that to the prime minister and his advisers, it would already have been off the curve. it would already have been predicting around 1000 deaths a day at this particular moment in time. can you just remind me how new deaths there were yesterday?”

cannot remember the exact figure. it was 138? mondays are always low. today will be artificially high for the same reason. i wouldn't concentrate on individual days. what we have done is looked at the initial portion of those curves in relation to the data and indeed in relation to the data and indeed in relation to the six week forecast as well, and what you see is the initial portion of those curves for the other projections out there or thereabouts for two of them and higher than the real data for two of them. ultimately dated trans models. sitting here today, i agree with that. -- ultimately dated trans models. would your advice to colleagues be to discard that model, that it is somewhat discredited and we should set that aside when thinking about

whether this is the right quest of action? i don't think it is fair to say it is discredited. these are scenarios that were put together on assumptions to look at what a reasonable worst case scenario might be, anda reasonable worst case scenario might be, and a reasonable worst case scenario is something you do not wa nt scenario is something you do not want to happen but it's something that could possibly happen if things we nt that could possibly happen if things went ina that could possibly happen if things went in a certain direction. i think the right grass to focus on in terms of former —— forward projections are the six week medium—term projections. they have shown to be relatively good of the past four weeks. you would expect them to project forward and they are assuming nothing changes go forward, things may well change. anti—brexit also on the data we have had today, which shows where things are in hospitals at the moment which are filling up. —— and to base it also on the data we had today. these are not forecasts, these are models which will tell you how things can look. they are not forecasts and

they should be looked at, knowing that. would you allow me to add one comment on that? i think if there is someone who's feeling is the between them being supported in these restricted and difficult measures is the difference between 1000 deaths a day and 4000 deaths a day, if that is the case, and remembering if there were 1000 deaths a day, that would imply sniffing to pleasures on multiple bits of the nhs, this becomes a material question —— this would imply significant pressures. i think reaching the peak which we reached in april strikes me as a realistic situation, so people who wish to take a conservative view, i mean that in a small c sense, that would be something that short—term projections would take us to. very helpful, thank you. there is a

particular relevance to that statistic, is there not, in that the nhs did cope with the p class time and one must assume that we have made further improvements during the summer? and so a whole set of other choices are possible if the nhs are not going to be overwhelmed? the difference is actually quite material. yes, and i have to say i feel slightly uncomfortable implying that this is a decision for me as a doctor advising government to decide on 1000 or 4000. actually, all i am saying in response to this question isi saying in response to this question is i think there has been some rather overblown rhetoric on this. people can take different projections if they wish, but getting to the stage we got two in april and if we do nothing, carrying on up from there, is entirely realistic. jeremy hunt and then

donna butler. thank you. ijust realistic. jeremy hunt and then donna butler. thank you. i just want to pick up on what professor whitty has just to pick up on what professor whitty hasjust said. talking to pick up on what professor whitty has just said. talking about 4000 deaths was not overblown rhetoric, it was some slides presented to the public. but if i take your conservative if you —— view that it is not unreasonable that we would reach the same level of deaths as in the first peak, many people would find that very curious. we now have a drug for it, we are much better knowing when to transfer people into intensive care, testing is better at monitoring disease, we had the whole to plan capacity. i think people people are very curious as to why it is we are likely to be seen if we

ta ke is we are likely to be seen if we take no action the same level of deaths as we saw in the spring.” think the points you make about the reduction in mortality is important. dexamethasone, i think uk can be proud we did this for the whole world very fast, will reduce mortality, there is less use of ventilators. there are a number of other medical improvements. but these are going to reduce the mortality, they are not going to ta ke mortality, they are not going to take it right the way down unfortunately. for some people sadly, they will come into hospital and whatever you do, they will die. the idea that there has been a huge transformation in the infection mortality rate would not be supported by the current data. there has been in production, i am confident in that. they might have beena hard confident in that. they might have been a hard thing, i think it is difficult to tell currently on the current data, let's hope that is the

case, but what we are seeing at the moment is numbers of deaths are going up really relatively steadily of the last two or three weeks. given that this is an exponential curve, the idea that this could get from the mid 200s to the thousand mark of reasonable —— over a number of weeks does not strike me as a strong thing to be saying, actually. i think that sounds very sensible. i just don't understand why, because you said it may be that the infection mortality rate is halved, it has certainly come down. i am curious as to why it is we should be looking at the likely prospect of deaths reaching the same daily level as the previous peak? because when you have a doubling incidence, all you have a doubling incidence, all you have a doubling incidence, all you have to do is do one doubling time and even if the mortality is half that, you are still at the same number. if you look at the six-week projections and over the last month,

the death have tracked the projections so that is taken into account in those projections and i don't think the infection fatality rate is necessarily halved. i think the in—hospital mortality rate has gone down. my having is that is the best we can hope for, i think it is less than that. i want to be clear about that. thank you very much. i just wanted to follow up one of the questions that graham stringer was asking to the chief scientific adviser about the two graphs. you show one graph, which were very clear is not a prediction or forecasts, which should deaths could be to to four times higher than the first wave. the very next slide you show, slide four, was the england daily hospital admissions, medium—term production. that showed there was hospital admissions going up, not doubling or tripling or

quadrupling, but going up by 25%. that was the medium—term production. is there not very confusing to show two sides consecutively? one about deaths suggesting we could see two to four times the number of deaths and another about hospital admissions, showing a projection thatis admissions, showing a projection that is just admissions, showing a projection that isjust going admissions, showing a projection that is just going up admissions, showing a projection that isjust going up by admissions, showing a projection that is just going up by 25%? admissions, showing a projection that isjust going up by 25%? they we re very that isjust going up by 25%? they were very different timelines. one isa were very different timelines. one is a longer term modelling scenario and the other is a shorter term projection. and actually, the shorter term projections are rather similarto shorter term projections are rather similar to the upswing in some of the other curbs, at the very best of those curbs. —— at the very base. the slide in three shows the steph speaking at the end of december and the hospital admissions rate is showing that for the week of the 8th of september. —— december. they

might bea of september. —— december. they might be a defence of a week or so, but it is not a massive difference in timeline, is it? if this is confusing, i apologise for that, but the model projections of the six weeks with the things that i was clear that was what we need to concentrate on. those are the things we can have more reliability on in terms of numbers, the others were scenarios a reasonable worst case planning, making it an assumption around what the r would be and making an assumption that it may increase. the projections are a forward look of the next six weeks with a greater degree of reliability, but again still a model. and they shall, in the hospital admissions, that you quite quickly would get, and of these projections, to a hospital level above the first wave peak, somewhere towards the end of november was 3000, and in the deaths move up to several hundred by early december.

and as a cmo hasjust that, with the doubling, and it depends on the dublin rate, that can increase very quickly, depending on what the doubling rate is at that point. the whole aim is to make sure that the doubling rate goes up much further, but ideally it becomes a halving rate. that is what you would want to do in orderto rate. that is what you would want to do in order to get these down. professor said today about preventing that slide three, the slide which talked about the winter scenarios and the potential quadrupling of the death rate, he said he was disappointed that graph was shown. i know professor whitty has previously praised this professor on his insights on how to use statistics. does he have a point? i am second to none in my admiration for him. i would reiterate that i think the two graphs which are important are the six week projection ones. can i be

clear that i have never used anything beyond six weeks in anything beyond six weeks in anything i have ever said to any minister? for that reason.” understand that. i am just curious that you haven't used it with any minister but you were prepared to jointly present it to the public at a very important press conference on saturday afternoon, on a day when the prime minister made a about to turn in his policy. it wasn't important enough for a reliable enough to present to ministers. i was surprised you both decided it was surprised you both decided it was important or reliable enough to present to the public. that graph had also been presented to the net. so we had seen projections beyond six weeks projections? quick question to professor what it then i am finished. i wanted to ask you about the role of test and tracing

as we go forward. you will know the latest figures that we only actually reach about a third of the total number of those who have been infected when you take into account the ons projections of the daily numbers being infected. probably less tha n numbers being infected. probably less than a quarter of those being asked to isolate our actually isolating, and this led sage to say on the 21st of september that the system is having a marginal impact, on the marginal, on transmission. is that your view on nhs test and trace? let me start off with the figures. i think it test and trace have gone from a standing start to actually a really long way down the track, but there are two buts. first is you have very high rates, we have

all said from the beginning, this is most effective when the rates are low. one of the reasons why getting rates low is a very good thing as it gives test and tracing much stronger ability to get things to have a much higher proportion of people picked up. in terms of the numbers you quoted, i think there has been two caveats to the data you have talked about. the first is you would only expect test entries to pick up symptomatic people, the ons data also picks up a somatic. so you don't set them a completely unfeasible target. the second is some of the commentary implies that if somebody has been contacted and doesn't follow exactly every single element of in isolation, they are doing nothing, so they give it an all or nothing approach. actually a lot of people may well be responding to being contacted by changing behaviour very substantially. it is

not an exact replica of what is expected. i am not an exact replica of what is expected. lam not not an exact replica of what is expected. i am not disagreeing, just finessing slightly and understanding the numbers you have just given. perhaps you could explain that though, because as i understand it, what the contact tracing element of test and trace does it contact people who have been in close contact with someone who is confirmed as positive, and asks them isolate. so, it is contacting people who are potentially asymptomatic transmitters of the disease, and thatis transmitters of the disease, and that is why you get overall rather lower numbers. no, the point about picking people up is that the entry point, the first point, the person that picks up the index case, they do it on the basis of symptoms. but then we contacted close contacts? that is the index case you are judging them against in terms of the ons stuff. yes, but we are still only asking to isolate a low proportion of the people who are

potentially transmitting the disease. what you are really saying is you do not disagree with what sage said, that it is only having a marginal impact on transmission, but the reason for that is because we had such high levels of transmission and you think test and trace really likely to be more effective when you have lower levels of transmission. even under optimal conditions, it will do a lot better with lower incidences. all other things being equal, all which is a big if, but all other things being equal, it will probably be now having a bigger effective anything in the areas which are lower in incidence and in the higher incidence areas. that is what most modelling would imply. across europe even effective test and trace systems don't work well.

we need to be really clear. even under perfect conditions test and trace only takes a proportion of the r number. that is all we can reasonably expect. the paper that jeremy hunt quoted from that the syste m jeremy hunt quoted from that the system is having a marginal impact on trusting that mission —— transmission at the moment. even in those conditions it was having a marginal impact. so what assessment have you made in your models of the contribution that test and trace has made? i can't give you the exact proportion because it varies from model to model. you are proportion because it varies from modelto model. you are looking ahead and you are familiar with the plans of test and trace. are you

modelling it with an expectation thatis modelling it with an expectation that is going to make an impact? there is a paperfrom that is going to make an impact? there is a paper from june which looked at exactly this question as to what the impact of different levels of effectiveness of test and trace is on the overall ability to control other measures you have to have in place. but in terms of making sure your projections and modelling for the next six weeks takes account of all of the relevant information, have you assumed that test and trace is going to make an impact on transmission? it will not be an assumption that there is a big impact from test and trace. it's a known fact that lockdown buys this time but it's in no way a solution to anything and what we have to do

is watch our actions. i think you are both contradicting yourselves when it comes to testing and tracing. let me explain what i mean. you have spoken a lot about the r numberand trying to you have spoken a lot about the r number and trying to get the r number and trying to get the r number below one but we know that once you start testing people if you don't get the results back within 24 to 72 hours that has an effect on the r numberso to 72 hours that has an effect on the r number so you can't talk about the r number so you can't talk about the r number without talking about effective testing and getting the results back in time. am i correct in my thinking or wrong in my thinking? you are bringing together two separate important points. the first one is you are right that to reduce r number test and trace systems need to get the results back as fast as possible. that is a critical part of it and one of the

reasons i amongst others are keen not to have test and trace being asked to do more things because it —— the shortening of the time is a critical part. but the calculation ofr critical part. but the calculation of r number does not depend on the length of time, that depends on the number of cases over quite a period of time. the point you make is a perfectly reasonable one but it doesn't affect the r number in terms of how you calculate it. but we must try and reduce those times because thatis try and reduce those times because that is when test and trace has its biggest impact. so in the short-term you will know that infection rate and in the summer we went international lockdown and they were 100,000 people showing symptoms of covid and during the winter that number will rise to 500,000 people a day who show symptoms of covid. they may have covid or flu or something else. so that surely means we need to ramp up our testing capacity to

five —— 500 tests a day. how close are we to achieving that?” five —— 500 tests a day. how close are we to achieving that? i am very cautious about getting into the business of trying to say what proportion of tests should be done on individual people. but the capacity to do testing people who are symptomatic is greater now than it was at the beginning of this month. i'm not going to put an exact number on it because i'm not the right person to answer that question. who is the right person? test and trace other people have the data on that. so are you in discussions with them and do they know how close we are to achieving what we need in order for you to be able to model correctly in regards to what we need going into winter? i

am sure you are aware of the frustration of the public and you have both said previously that in order for us to combat and control the virus we need the public to comply. as you know, the public are very frustrated. these questions are important for the public to understand what's going on and why. so in your estimation how close do you think we are to achieving the capacity, because we need to know numbers. i'm trying to answer your question helpfully. there is varying indications for testing and the point you are making completely rightly his as we go into winter and autumn we are likely to have more people who have symptoms compatible

with covid who don't have covid. but you still need to be tested. part of the key reason to increase capacity for test and trace in my opinion has been exactly to achieve the point you have raised. my hope and expectation is that test and trace will have the capacity to test people who are symptomatic through the winter period. let's pull away from that. let's pick up on this with our political correspondent who joins me from westminster. professor chris whitty making clear that measures should be decided by ministers and they can only advise. absolutely. i guess we already knew that but it's been interesting because professor whitty and patrick valla nce because professor whitty and patrick vallance have been wheeled out every

time the prime minister has made significant announcement on what is going to be done. the government is clear they take into account the advice of scientists and experts on any decision that is being made. plenty on that committee which is still ongoing. they talked for an example about the test and trace system and how test and trace as a system and how test and trace as a system is most effective when prevalence is low and when infection rates are low rather than high. so that gives you some idea as to the extent of the four—week lockdown in england might bring the prevalence down such sober test and trace might start to work. we've been hearing a lot about testing regimes being bolstered and the pilot announced in liverpool where they will be mass testing to see whether that is a way of trying to get some kind of normality within the country. there was also a defence of some of the data that's been presented to the

public both through those press conferences with the prime minister and elsewhere and some criticism and some of the worst case scenarios we re some of the worst case scenarios were quite high. the point the scientists were trying to make was in any of the models being used they will show that the peak of this virus is extremely high and that was the rationale of action being taken. certainly both the chief medical officer and the chief scientific officer suggesting they both think it's very helpful for the public to have all that data in the public domain so that people can start to understand the rationale behind the decision. i think we will get more data released by the government this afternoon. thank you very much. let's talk now to our health correspondent. there were fears and claims that there was an element of alarmism after the briefing on saturday and that was addressed.

definitely. so many of us were watching on saturday and we saw those figures, the worst case scenario that could have potentially happen if measures were not taken. the argument for a lockdown in england. one of those particular areas accused of being alarmist was this 4000 deaths daily figure. professor vallance defended the use of this figure during this committee and said the predictions came from different research groups, or respected, and looked at the reasonable worst case scenario. if you look at the six—week forward projection the most reliable part of the modelling, that all appears to be accurate. so for example people in hospital would pass the first wave towards the end of november and the numberof wave towards the end of november and the number of deaths would equal the numberof the number of deaths would equal the number of deaths somewhere in mid—december. mps question whether these graphics were frightening and

misleading, but professor chris whitty also argued that you don't need this modelling to tell you where we are. he gave quite a grim picture of the uk at the moment and said the epidemic is doubling in different rates around the country. some hospitals are struggling with occupancy. he said while there is some hope of seeing rates in the northeast for example starting to flatten, even they the r number is above one. so the thia system seems to be working. it's too early to know really how well the thia system is working. he says he's confident is working. he says he's confident is helping to bring aces down and bring that r number are closer to one. but if we stayed as we were they both argue that we wouldn't be ina they both argue that we wouldn't be in a place that we needed to be and further restrictions would be needed to get that r number below one and to get that r number below one and to protect the nhs. thursday's

lockdown in england. what's it like on the front line at the moment? can you cope? yes, we are coping. we are well organised at james cook yes, we are coping. we are well organised atjames cook hospital but numbers are going up. we have 95 patients in our hospital with coronavirus and 14 of them are in critical care. that compares to around 150 people at our peak last year. we are two thirds of the way to our peak incapacity but tha nkfully to our peak incapacity but thankfully we are keeping going and we've got our non—urgent service still going. we heard from chris whitty saying some hospitals in

england are already cancelling nonurgent care. how far off is that for you? we had to reorganise some cases and we are very for you? we had to reorganise some cases and we are very flexible. we are changing wards into covid wards which means we have the temporarily close things down. at the moment we are not there. there is a chance that if the peak does continue to rise and we don't follow the rules we could start to wind down other services and that this time is what we don't want to do. when we talk about capacity it's different from your meaning of capacity. a lot of people talk about this word which is overwhelmed. in march we felt we weren't overwhelmed but actually we had no screening, no elective operations, no chronic care going on. this time i think our definition of overwhelmed would be is having to stop vital services, non—covid

services. i use the nhs myself on friday. my son was rushed in for an appendicectomy and he got the most amazing k and went home the next day. that's an example of an operation we don't want to get compromised by being overwhelmed. the morale of the nhs is something thatis the morale of the nhs is something that is being talked about in recent days. it will be different in various trusts but how would you assess what you are hearing?” various trusts but how would you assess what you are hearing? i don't think anybody wants to be in the position we are in now. we want to see less people in hospital, we don't want to see any more than 97. we are already on the brink of having to stop nonurgent surgery. it's a dog in attitude. our nhs is amazing. we are going to work hard, it is tiring, but we will cope. we

would like people to follow the rules. i don't create the rules and it must be a terrible decision that people are having to make but if we stick it together i think the nhs will step up to the mark once more. when you heard on saturday there is going to be another month long lockdown, was there a sense of relief? absolutely. we could all see the numbers going up rapidly. from our point of view we didn't think we we re our point of view we didn't think we were quite the in stemming the tide and getting a lockdown going and a month will give us a chance to get those numbers down and then we can get in control once again. we have a lot more treatments and we should be very proud. we proved some of these treatments and even now nhs patients are getting donald trump's magic

trick. if it works nhs patients will get it. there are amazing treatments out there and recovery is better so we are all working hard and hopefully the locked and is the right thing to do. really good to talk to you. and thank you to all of you. you are watching bbc news. let's get more on that story that broke a little earlier, the comedian john sessions has died at the age of 67. he was best known for his work on spitting image and whose line is it anyway?. he was also a character actor, appearing in films like kenneth branagh‘s henry the fifth and tv series including itv‘s victoria. let's speak now to ian hislop , broadcaster and editor of magazine private eye(0s just when you think 2020 can't get any worse, something like this

happen. he was a brilliant man. yes. he was an old friend but he was also an absolutely brilliant comedian and actor and improviser. it's difficult to do actor and improviser. it's difficult todoa actor and improviser. it's difficult to do a summary. he was a fantastic stage actor. his one—man show about napoleon in the west end. john could do everything. film acting, improvisation, voices. i met him on spitting image. he was an amazing actor and amazingly versatile. he would have been very flattered at the attention he has been given. i was delighted to see him described asa was delighted to see him described as a star because he probably thought he wasn't. but he was. he was the funniest man in real life you could ever meet. was that because of the very quick wit that he had? yes. his great gift was this

ageing intelligence. it was like having google at your fingertips. plus an amazing knowledge of popular culture. he introduced these incredible fusions. he did that on several tv programmes. it was like watching fireworks. an amazing character actor and yet when he was himself perhaps even more alluring. yes. a mutualfriend said he was the funniest man he had ever met. he wasn't greedy. he didn't save it over the screen. he would make you laugh. he couldn't resist in a sense. on the set of have i got news

for you, we all know what he was like on screen but i suspect he was funnier off it. he was a very sweet and generous man. john absolutely loved showbiz. he loved acting. he met anthony hopkins. he could not have been more happy being in a film with robert de niro. he managed to get near his heroes and he was a fine film actor himself. his delight in the business was not matched by elitism or snorting us. he remained modest and unassuming. which is quite an achievement. and a brilliant mimic of his friends. anyone should go on youtube and find the alan rickman impersonation. it's why he was so good on spitting image, he could do everyone. but he

wasn't just an impressionist. image, he could do everyone. but he wasn'tjust an impressionist. he became a really fine actor and he did sort of impressions of every british prime minister in films like made in dagenham or the iron lady. he played absolutely everybody. yes, he did impersonations of everyone, including me. a brilliant raconteur and ina including me. a brilliant raconteur and in a world of very good raconteurs he stood out, didn't he? i once watched him at a literary festival and the poor man said i've got a whole list of questions and i said good luck with that. he asked the first question and then 23 minutes later he got to ask his second question because john just spun off and there was no need. he was a fantastic one—man show. spun off and there was no need. he was a fantastic one-man show. are there any stories that particularly stand out for you ?

there any stories that particularly stand out for you? i was literally, one of the last things he did he was a great supporter of the charity which was a concert that has been cancelled this year and he was recording a poem of the night before christmas and the last time he did it he did it so dramatically that as he said to all good night he managed to hit the mace out of the lord mayor's hands. so dramatic he was. you said he loved films. did he like the gossip side of it as well? no. he liked the shining quality of the actors. he was very much a note of great actors, even though i think he became one himself. he never lost that feeling that these are my childhood heroes. that sort of

delight in the eccentricity and the star power never left him. he could play anything. what do you think we re play anything. what do you think were his favourite roles? he did a series and in the doctor florence jenkins films. he was very good in the recent series of victoria in which she played another prime minister. he got typecast in that. very good in shakespeare. he's in a lot of those great branagh films. he did train at rada and he was part of that golden generation. he was there with kenneth branagh and people like that. he was in the renaissance

crowd with david parfitt the producer. so there was a sense in which he belongs to a great gang of british actors. privately, was he quieter than we might imagine? sometimes. he was thoughtful and kind but he was very generous in trying to cheer you up and make you laugh. i spoke to him during lockdown and he was always funny. for private i once a year in the theatre we do this show and john was theatre we do this show and john was the star and finally he did three minutes of bringing the house down every year for about 15 years. he would come off and say how was i and you would think you must know you we re you would think you must know you were good. really good of you to

share your memories and thank you for your time. the bushfires that raged across australia this time last year caused devastation. as well as claiming more then 30 lives, the country's wildlife was also badly hit. the koala population was decimated — and ever since volunteers on kanagaroo island have been doing their best to help them recover. our australia correspondent shaimaa khalil reports. they survived australia's fires. now these koalas are ready to go back where they belong. it's a very different scene from nearly a year ago. pictures of the badly burned animals shocked the world. hundreds were brought to this wildlife park when the flames tore through the island. as well as being faced with the burns and the starvation and the dehydration, they were also very mentally affected as well. a lot of them were just feeling so terrible that they were just kind of cuddled in a ball,

they didn't have that fight response which a wild animal should. of the 50,000 koalas living on kangaroo island before the bushfire, it's feared most of them were killed. images of the destruction and the loss of wildlife were seen across the globe, prompting millions of dollars in donations. it was just incredible to see how many people from pretty much every country in the world jumped on board to donate to looking after and saving as much wildlife on kangaroo island here as we could. helping koalas survive here is vital for australia's ecology. it's the one place where the animals are disease—free. for months now, hundreds of koalas have been looked after in the wildlife park, and it's been a long and tough journey for many of them. the aim is to get them strong enough to survive on their own here in the wild. and today, one of them is being released. after ten months of care, it's time for merton's big move. ready? are you watching?

here goes the koala. 0h, here he goes! for dana, it's a bittersweet separation. there's no better feeling watching someone that you've helped either raise from a joey, or get through all of that treatment, and then get them back out to the wild, watching them climb back out of a tree, where they're meant to be. it'll take years for the island to recover, but it's hoped koalas like merton can still thrive in a much changed habitat. bye — bye. bye—bye, koala. bye — bye, koala. shaimaa khalil, bbc news, kangaroo island. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen willetts good afternoon. there were some

spectacular autumn colours out and about and we should get the weather to go out and about in the next few days because it has been very stormy. following on from yesterday's rain there are still flood warnings in force but they should be coming down in the next day or two because high pressure is being invited in from the atlantic for wednesday, thursday and friday. so perhaps three or four days of dry u nsettled so perhaps three or four days of dry unsettled weather. for the rest of the day there are still some lively showers. the early morning rain is clear —— clearing but some sleet in the hills in the north and it does feel chilly for all despite the wind being lighter. the wind will continue to ease end of that ridge of high pressure over night. for england under way it will be our first widespread frost of the season. temperatures widely to zero or below in the countryside and even in some towns and cities. not quite as cloud across scotland but seven

scotla nd as cloud across scotland but seven scotland pretty chilly. they could be some mist and fog first thing tomorrow morning. once that clears away there will be fewer showers. the main chance of showers across the northern isles and the western isles. temperatures are recovering a little bit tomorrow because you have lighter winds and more sunshine. as we going to thursday, another cold start. you can see that cloudy weather in the north again with much of scotla nd weather in the north again with much of scotland escaping a frost. at another cold night further south. but fog becomes our main issue. thursday could be quite dense and widespread particularly for england under is. at this time of year it can linger until late morning and in some places lingered all day. so here it will be called but for most of us outside the fog nine to 11 degrees. a little bit warmer across scotla nd degrees. a little bit warmer across scotland because you have that south—westerly effect. as we

progress towards the end of the week that fog is likely to become more of an issue for scotland and northern ireland. hopefully that drier weather hanging on to the first half of the weekend and then it's potentially more change.

this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines... austria's chancellor describes last night's shootings in vienna as an islamist terror attack that was born out of hatred for democracy. police have made 14 arrests following the attack — four people were killed and another 22 were injured we were in the city centre of vienna and we heard shots everywhere and the police, the helicopters were flying around us. we got really afraid so we decided to hide ourselves in the restaurant to be safe there. as parliament prepares to debate a second lockdown for england, the country's senior scientific advisors stress to mps the covid rate must be kept low in order to protect the nhs. if you don't, then that is going to

erode the nhs's capacity to do not just the covid care, but non—covid ca re just the covid care, but non—covid care as well. criticism of the government's decision not to allow grassroots sports to continue during lockdown in england. the campaigning is over: americans head to the polls to choose their next president, with nearly 100 million early votes already cast. welsh football manager ryan giggs won't take charge of the team's next three games after being accused of assault — allegations he denies. and tributes to the comedian john sessions — best known for his work on spitting image — who's died at the age of 67. good afternoon and welcome to bbc news.

14 people have been arrested in austria following a suspected islamist attack in the capital vienna last night. two men and two women were shot dead, and more than 20 were injured. the austrian chancellor sebastian kurz said the victims were ‘murdered in cold blood' — and called it ‘an attack born of hate'. the attack happened in the city centre at around eight o'clock local time near vienna's main synagogue, as people gathered in bars a nd restau ra nts hours before the start of new coronavirus restrictions. a gunman was shot dead by police. he was convicted last year of trying tojoin the islamic state group in syria. the austrian interior ministry said the attacker fooled the de—radicalisation programme. some viewers may find distressing some of the images in this report from our security correspondent frank gardner. vienna under attack. armed police reacted swiftly to reports of gunmen rampaging through the centre of the city, shooting at people indiscriminately

as they sat in cafes and bars. this mobile phone footage shows the moment one of the gunmen opened fire. gunfire. police later shot dead one of the attackers and arrested another. the shooting took place close to the central synagogue. the rabbi saw what happened. translation: i saw the heavily armed attacker with a rifle take aim and shoot at people outside bars and pubs last night. it was a warm evening and the night before the lockdown, so a lot of people wanted to go out. police have identified the dead gunman as a 20—year—old resident of balkan origin. his home has been searched and material linked to isis recovered. today austria's chancellor made this announcement. translation: it has been confirmed it was an islamic terrorist attack. it was an attack of hatred —

hatred of our basic values, hatred of our way of life, hatred of our democracy where all people are equal in rights and dignity. austria's investigation is focusing on who else could have been behind this, the country's worst terrorist attack in 35 years. for residents of this normally tranquil city, it's been a brutal shock. translation: they need to be punished very harshly. that's not funny, it's unacceptable. translation: it's terrible what happened, but i guess it was foreseeable after everything that's happened in other countries in recent years. all this just days after france suffered its own terrorist attacks — at a church in nice, and before that when this teacher, samuel paty, was beheaded by a jihadist after showing his class cartoons of the prophet muhammad in a lesson about free speech.

those cartoons, and the french government's subsequent crackdown on islamist extremists, triggered mass demonstrations in some muslim majority countries. french goods are being boycotted in several places. today austria is in mourning, notjust for those killed in last night's attack but also for the end of a long period of relative calm. and yet, incredibly, as mayhem reigned last night, the vienna philharmonic were locked in by the police and they played on. classical music plays. a symbol, perhaps, of europe's determination to stand up to terrorism. frank gardner, bbc news. well, last night, maximilian fischl was in a nearby restaurant with friends when the attack started, he told us his

experience. started, he told us his can tell you this was one of scariest i can tell you this was one of the scariest moments in my life, i couldn't believe what happened. we decided with some friends to meet up for a pizza and have a nice evening before the second lockdown takes place in austria, but we couldn't have a nice night, as you can imagine. it was crazy what happened. we were in the city centre of the nr and wejust we were in the city centre of the nr and we just heard shots everywhere, and we just heard shots everywhere, and the police, the helicopters were flying around us, and we got really afraid so we decided to hide ourselves in the restaurant to be safe there. my condolences to the family of people who died, it's really unbelievable, and we also have to thank the police and everybody who tried their best to support, and the people outside who risked their lives to save our lives, and we have to stay strong

together. regular coronavirus tests are to be offered to everyone living and working in liverpool from the end of the week. it's the government's first mass—testing trial involving a whole city. liverpool has one of the highest rates of coronavirus deaths in england. our health correspondent katharine da costa reports. it's estimated two thirds of us get the virus without showing any symptoms. liverpool's had the highest infection rate. it's hoped by testing the whole city, authorities will be able to monitor the spread of the virus and quickly drive infections down. we know that asymptomatic transmission is a key issue for us, so the more we can help people to understand their personal status, the more we can encourage people to act appropriately and accordingly. from friday, existing swabs and new rapid swab tests — which can provide results within 15 minutes — will be offered to people with or without symptoms every week or so at 30 testing sites around the city. they'll be outside some hospitals, they'll be outside the universities, outside our schools,

going to have mobile units going to care homes as well and to other places where we see there is a spike or an increase in covid—19 activity. around one in 1000 people will get a false positive, meaning someone's told they've got the virus when they haven't, but scientists say rapid tests could be a game changer. you know, people get pretty irritated when they get told that they passed somebody in the shops and they now have to quarantine for ten or 14 days, and with these tests it should be possible, as we get the system in place, to be able to test those people every two days and they can go about their business, provided they remain negative. 2000 military personnel will be deployed from thursday to help plan the logistics and deliver some of the tests. if this is a success, and i obviously really hope it will be and people in liverpool will get behind it, then we'll be looking to roll this out in other towns and cities and make millions more of these rapid tests available before christmas.

the latest weekly figures from national stats agencies shows deaths in the uk are more than 10% higher than expected in the week to the 23rd of october. there were more than 12,000 deaths and almost all the excess, seen here in red, was linked to covid—19. back in liverpool, the pilot will be closely monitored to see how many people come forward for testing and how many fully isolate when they are asked to. katharine da costa, bbc news. the government's chief medical officerfor england, professor chris whitty has been told mps this afternoon that the coronavirus epedemic was doubling very quickly. he said some hospitals in the north of england had already reached a higher covid—19 occupancy than during the previous peak. the starting point in terms of how full they are now is currently very

variable, so there are some hospitals, particularly in the north of england, which have actually now reached levels of covid occupancy higher than they had in the first wave, and our worry is in those areas, it looks as if the increase in rates, r s flattening, it is not below one, it is still going up. if they carried on going up from this high pace, they would get into serious trouble on impatience very quickly. there are other bits of the country, in the south—west, where the rate of increase is faster than in the north now, and the capacity is lower. although they look further away at the moment, they could hit difficulties relatively quickly. the other thing, to make in a novice point, i hope to this committee, but i think it is worth for those watching. there are several barriers eagle through in terms of hitting

capacity for the nhs. the first thing we will have to do is cancelling nonurgent elective care, then you go to starting to impinge on urgent nonemergency care, then you get into the acute care being constrained and finally the intensive care capacity been used up. that happens in sequence, but we are already seeing parts of the country having to cancel nonurgent emergency care. if this continues, people worry, rightly, about all non—covid care being affected, and the argument on this has gone slightly the wrong way around. there where you prevent the services being impinged on and potentially being dragged down or in some cases cancelled, is to keep the covid rates down. rebecca brayshaw is the owner of the bar and events venue little bolton town hall in bolton,

greater manchester. thank you for it sticking to us. from your point of view, a case appear we go again. it is a little bit feeling like that. we have been through every tear so far, one, two and three in the space of three weeks, so this is our third lockdown in bolton, so unfortunately i feel a little bit too comfortable in the position we are in now. because you have got into a routine of opening and expecting to close again? yeah, opening up and the cost is huge that goes with that every time, the frustration of closing back down again, the cost that goes with that, again, the cost that goes with that, a lot of it literally is a beer down the drain. and it is very frustrating, it is a real roller—coaster of emotions. draining and exhausting, to be honest. do you understand the reasoning behind it?

do you think that has been communicated well enough?” do you think that has been communicated well enough? i think it snack i mean, i am a little bit over watching slides on the news if i am honest with you. i do understand that it honest with you. i do understand thatitis honest with you. i do understand that it is about the overall health and looking after people who are vulnerable and helping not overwhelm the nhs, i understand that. from our case, where we are in bolton, i am not sure at the lockdown worked before. we are still very high in numbers, soi before. we are still very high in numbers, so i don't know whether ten weeks of this in and out of tears and markdowns is actually proving what we are hoping for it to print. —— lockdowns. now we are almost on an even keel, i would rather be locked down and everybody in the same boat and hopefully this gets over sooner rather than later, then in an out of restrictions and people not really understanding what is going on with anybody. you presumably have fixed costs that continue regardless of whether you

are open or not. how do you manage that? well, to be honest, the problem we are facing right now is that we are realistically looking at about 12 months of no income, because we are already hitting december time really before we are even likely to be able to open the doors again. i am not 100% confident that will be the case, if i am being honest. we are looking at the new year, january and february are difficult months for hospitality anyway, which is why christmas usually gets you through. the honest a nswer usually gets you through. the honest answer is we are relying on loans. i own the company so i am personally propping it up, there is only so long that can continue and there isn't a lot longer left if i am going to be honest. it is the loans we have had, and the difficulty i am now facing its once those loans and the vat and everything kicks back in in the new year, we have no income

for nearly 12 months. how do i get back on an even keel to strapping that back, let alone propel myself forward and try and continue through the rest of next year? —— to start paying that back. it is worrying at the moment. rebecca, thank you very much for being with us. we will keep our fingers crossed for you and your fellow business owners. hopefully, people will put the effort in in january to get out and drink and eat keep you all in business. please! concerns about a lockdown extend throughout all aspects of society: many of the uk's religious leaders have made representations to the government to say that collective workship should continue to be allowed. our correspondentjohn mcmanus joins me now. we talked a bit about this over the weekend on the news channel, but if anything, without putting it too

strongly, the anger seems to be growing in all states. we said on sunday that the leader of catholics in england and wales had come out very quickly and very strongly against the government's plans to ban communal acts of worship from thursday in england. he said, where is the evidence that covid—19 can spread in church services? he said he hadn't seen any evidence in particular because churches and other places of worship have worked very ha rd to other places of worship have worked very hard to make sure their premises are covid secure and people can worship safely there. well, that backlash has continued. the cardinal wasjoined by backlash has continued. the cardinal was joined by the muslim council of britain who also said they wanted to talk to the prime minister about this. they were very unhappy, particularly because in islam, there are particularly because in islam, there a re really particularly because in islam, there are really only communal acts of worship. you don't drop in for private prayer, as you might do any church for example. so, they wanted

a nswe rs church for example. so, they wanted answers as well. this morning we had answers as well. this morning we had a coalition of leaders, church pastors and ministers from smaller evangelical churches, which nevertheless represent tens of thousands of questions, saying we're going to ask for a judicial review of this if the government doesn't change mind. and then this afternoon a joint letter from change mind. and then this afternoon a joint letterfrom the change mind. and then this afternoon a joint letter from the cardinal and the archbishop of canterbury and york, urging the government to change their mind and say look, worship provide such an important pa rt worship provide such an important part of people's lives. it is not an added extra, and they want the government to change its mind on this. so far the government have not responded. that is john mcmanus there. thank you for that update. some strong words in that statement. they talk about being disappointed by the line the government is taking and they do not accept the evidence. we will see how that debate continues in the coming days.

some breaking news — the home secretary priti patel has raised the uk terror threat level to severe. this follows attacks in several cities in europe(read on —— vienna in recent days and france as well. our security correspondent frank gardnerjoins me now. this has happened in the last few seconds and minutes that britain is now in the second highest tier, which pits it at severe, meaning that an attack is thought highly likely. before that we were on what is called substantial, meaning an attack was likely. which isn't especially encouraging or comforting either. but this is really in response to what we have seen in vienna and before that in france. it is not in response, we are told, to any specific threat in the uk. so it is precautionary? exactly, it would be remiss of the government not to raise it. the dice for this isn't

made by the ministry swimming the advice. it is made by thejoint terrace analysis centre and that is a fusion centre of expertise that sits inside m15 headquarters in london, that are separate from them. he puts together analysts from transport, health, intelligence, military, mod and they constantly analyse the ongoing threat to uk citizens anywhere in the world. they have had a look at what is going on in vienna, they have looked at the postings by jihadists in vienna, they have looked at the postings byjihadists from isis and al-qaeda, exhorting people to carry out attacks. there is a lot of anger in many parts of muslim communities over the cuttings, and that has been exploited by extremists who are encouraging people to carry out attacks. hence the raising too severe. we have seen international protests after president macron had said about the attacks in france. i

wonder what you made of the tone of the austrian chancellor sebastian kurz‘s room marks. —— remarks. this wasn't a conflict between christians and muslims, but a way of life. he says it was a barbaric approach. it seems to be a message held consistently by governments crossed western countries. it is popular with the home audience, but it can bea with the home audience, but it can be a touchpaper, a bit of a red flag, to people in other communities. remember, this is a battle of hearts and minds. when things are calm, it is very hard for jihadists and extremists, and right—wing extremist, far right extremists, let's not forget them, because that is a fast—growing terror threat in this country, and generally especially and the united states, when things are calm it is harderfor states, when things are calm it is harder for them states, when things are calm it is harderfor them to be states, when things are calm it is

harder for them to be great. the attacks tend to breed other attacks and reaction and overreaction. the weight france has been at it is largely popular at home but has triggered a war of words with turkey, it is the french reaction that has generated protests in bangladesh and gaza and libya and syria, and by cutting of french goods. —— boycotting. syria, and by cutting of french goods. -- boycotting. words matter. people have to be careful with the language so as to not make things worse than the already are. we hope will be hearing from the priti patel sometime in the afternoon. and now on the bbc news channel, it's time for your questions answered — and you've been sending in plenty of questions about the planned four—week lockdown across england.

here to answer some of them is emeritus professor at the university of hong kong, sian griffiths — she also lead the hong kong government's enquiry into sars — and dr chris smith, virologist from the naked scientists podcast. what are the latest rules going to be to support the vulnerable in the forthcoming november 5th lockdown? as we plunge into the second england locked in, we have a host of questions. mike says what are the latest rule is going to be to support the vulnerable in the lockdown in england? we are waiting for more guidance for those who are exceptionally vulnerable, but in general people who were classed as vulnerable last time i've been told to be careful, to stay home, wash their hands, but also to go out and exercise and be involved in social interaction, because last time around, there was some damage from

social isolation, there was just as much anxiety and the balance is that you can carry on as you are now, but ta ke you can carry on as you are now, but take care. chris, iwant you can carry on as you are now, but take care. chris, i want to join two questions together. when asked why are schools not closing and jazz asks, if adults can work from home, why can't children? first of all, why can't children? first of all, why keep this place is open and why can they be open safely? you can regardless like a seesaw. we want to keep the sea salt balance, that's when the spread of the virus is under control. if we waited down at one end, we increase the risk by keeping schools open. we need to counterbalance it and hopefully that is what the lockdown is going to achieve, it is going to enable us to provide important educational services by reducing the risk of transmission in other sectors. overall, it adds up to a balance.

this question from emily, she says my white lives in plymouth, i live in staffordshire. wiese formed a support bubble as we live alone, the guide means support bubbles should be local where possible but the appears to be no restrictions on distance. i presume this means we can drive to each other‘s houses and stay over? yes, you can because you area stay over? yes, you can because you are a bubble and it says, where possible, if you are separated for reasons of work, you can still drive to see each other. chris, what happens, this is from julie, what happens, this is from julie, what happens to people who were previously shielding? although there is no formal notice to people to shield again, chris mitty at the announcement at the weekend, at the press briefing, pointed out that people who were shielding last time remain vulnerable and they may want to take extra precautions. the government will be writing to people with some extra guidance. the shielding will not be the same as it

was last time. they acknowledge some things went well last time but some things went well last time but some things went well last time but some things went less well, including reading people feeling isolated. we expect now that the environment, because of various measures to make workplaces, to make public areas more covid—19 secure, the environment is safe at this time than previously and therefore some of the measures taken last time will not be necessary this time. but we should wait for the government to make those formal notices later this week with the extra precautions some will take. they are saying, extra precautions. that means be on your guard if you know people who've got this, don't go and hang with them. that picks up a question about whether you need to isolate. the a nswer whether you need to isolate. the answer is at the moment, we don't think so? no, there is no guidance formally at the moment that people should be isolate themselves. the phrase used was should take extra precautions. i think that is people being sensible and being on their guard, but reassure people that many

parts in the country, the risk remains low and there has been enormous efforts made by schools, workplaces, shops and other public spaces to make themselves covid secure. the risk is not what it was for people going out back at the beginning of the year which is why the guidance has not been formally to reintroduce the shielding that was taking place in the way it did previously. at least for now. maria asks, why can you meet people from ten plus different families potentially because you work with them, but not at home? what is the difference? hopefully, environments at work are covid secure. precautions will be taken to minimise the risk of transmission. it is much more difficult in your own home, when you have people in, the ventilation will probably be worse and in the winter we have to come inside. people will be touching and close than social distance

required, services may get contaminated, and it isjust a high—risk environment in your own home. we have seen from the epidemiology, we have seen that within hassle transmission, it is one of the immediate modes of transmission. —— household. forthe current time, we are being asked not to have people outside our households into our houses or guidance. deborah wants to ask, i assume this is in her interest, can she still fly from northern ireland into england and back again when england is locked down? at the moment, some of the other countries, i was listening to nicola sturgeon's press briefing this lunchtime and she was urging people in scotland, for example, please don't travel to other parts of the united kingdom and vice versa. i don't think at the moment you are being banned from doing that, i think you are being advised not to. the whole point of these regulations is to try and minimise the transmission of the virus by minimising the contact between people. if you need to make

essential journeys for work, between people. if you need to make essentialjourneys for work, the study, to do important essential family business, then you need to make those journeys, but where possible, we are all being urged not to travel, to work from home if we can and minimise contact with other people to the greatest extent possible because that robs the virus of the routes of transmission it would be exploiting the contacts with other people. we have two questions to end with. one about exercise. rick asks, will we be able to drive a short distance to take our outdoor exercise? yes, you can. there is no constraint on the distance you can drive. and especially if you are going to be taking exercise, but you should try to stay as close to home as possible, so if you have good exercise facilities nearby, try and use them but otherwise yes, you can drive to take exercise. last question from our us. i am a personal trainer who works with clients in my garden and their guidance, will be still be allowed

provided i mean social distancing? outside is much safer than inside, so if you are doing your work outside a meeting one client at once, at the moment the rules suggest that one person eating one other person outside with physical distancing between them, that is perfectly acceptable and so that would extend to you being able to carry on with your important job as well. i think there is no problem with that whatsoever. thank you both very much. i am sorry it was a brief and snappy this afternoon. we have got quite a few other things we have got quite a few other things we have got to get through, but we are grateful to both of you and look forward to speaking to you again. let's return to the breaking news about the threat level. patel has raised the threat level to severe. there were attacks in several cities in europe and the threat level is

the second highest, and it believes the second highest, and it believes the attack is highly likely but there is no specific intelligence of an imminent incidence. this is what the home secretary has to say. that is right. this afternoon the threat level have been changed across the united kingdom from terrorism from substantial to severe. the british public should be alert but not alarmed, this is a precautionary measure for allowing the terrible incident is that we have seen in france last week and the events we saw in austria last night. the first and most important duty of the government is to protect the british public and we are doing that, and we will continue to do that the 3d measures and the tools we put in place in terms of dealing with terrorism and terrorist activity. this particular stage, if the public have any concerns, i would ask them to report anything of concern that they may have to the police, but as i have said, this is a precautionary

measure in light of recent events we have seen. what can you tell us about the work going on to counter the threat level? we have made the judgment going on to counter the threat level? we have made thejudgment in light of recent events in france and austria that the salute should go up. in terms of countering activity, we work with our outstanding intelligence and police forces across the country and our intelligence agencies to put the preventative measures in place and that will continue. of course the public will see more visible policing across the country and that is right in light of the threat going up, but as i've said the public should not be alarmed. this isa public should not be alarmed. this is a precautionary measure. that was the home secretary talking to us

earlier. sport and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre, here'sjohn watson. good afternoon. the super league season will be shortened following ongoing diusruption brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. clubs will no longer be expected to fuilfil all of their regular season fixtures. an expanded play off series means it will at least be played to a conclusion. our sports reporter adam wild joins me. adam, the ongoing issues around the pandemic and an escalating number of positive tests of players of all clubs forcing organisers into a rethink. i don't think it will come as a huge surprise to anyone given the state of affairs rugby league finds itself in. we've been talking about these potential changes for the last few weeks and in the last hour things have been confirmed by the rugby league authorities. hull kingston rovers this morning with the latest clu b to

rovers this morning with the latest club to report some failed tests for coronavirus after club to report some failed tests for coro navi rus after tests club to report some failed tests for coronavirus after tests at castleford yesterday came back negative. rovers are bottom of the super league so want to be troubling the end of season play—off system and that is where the season will jump and that is where the season will jump to after this weekend's fixtures. two final games of the regular season, both at headingley. that will decide who wins the shield, either wigan or st helens. following that the play—offs will begin early and the requirement for clu bs to begin early and the requirement for clubs to play 15 games has been abandoned now. the top six teams will be involved, the seventh place which will either be salford or huddersfield, will remain on standby. the top two will set out the first round, third to sixth going to elimination games and the winners of those will play the top two tea ms winners of those will play the top two teams with the winners of that going the grand final on the 27th of november. as you say, i think this

isn't the culmination of the season the authorities want but they have been forced into it. at least it does preserve some integrity in the league. thank you. the wales manager ryan giggs will not be involved in his side's three up coming matches after he was arrested on suspicion of assault. a statement from the welsh fa says coach robert page, with ryan's support, will take charge for the next three matches against the usa, republic of ireland and finland. giggs denies all the allegations. wales were due to announce their squad for those matches today, but will now wait until thursday. scotland manager steve clarke has recalled celtic striker lee griffiths to his side for their euro 2020 play—off final with serbia later this month. griffiths hasn't appeared for his country since 2018, but clarke believes he can make a big difference.

i think when you look at him over the years he has always been a goal—scorer. he is dangerous in the 18 yard box. i think the goal he scored against aberdeen a few weeks ago shows you what he's all about. sometimes you need a goal and with him in the squad he can give us that option. the more options i've got the better and he is one of those options. the champions league continues tonight with liverpool up against italian side atalanta and ahead of the game liverpool managerjurgen klopp is under no illusions about the challenge his side will face in italy. for sure so far the biggest challenge in the champions league because atalanta with all they have donein because atalanta with all they have done in the last two or three years, they are very settled team and difficult to play against. very special their approach. slightly

similarto special their approach. slightly similar to leeds organisation wise. it will be a tough one. and british number one dan evans has failed in his latest attempt to beat stan wawrinka. the swiss had won their last four meetings and he came out on top again at the paris masters, winning a tight match in straight sets. it was a blow for evans, who's reached the semi—finals at the last two atp events. that's all the sport for now. it's election day in the united states and polls have started to open for the presidential election. donald trump and his democratic challengerjoe biden spent the final hours of the campaign in the swing states that could decide the result. national polls suggest a firm lead for mr biden, but the race is tighter in the key battlegrounds. more than 98 million people have already taken part in early voting ben wright reports.

across the united states, in person and by mail, americans have voted in vast numbers already. nearly 100 million people have cast their ballots early and more will have their say at polling stations today. for both candidates, monday saw a final sprint for votes around key swing states and both made campaign stops in pennsylvania. lagging in the polls, donald trump has been rallying his supporters at a punishing pace. the president surprised the world by winning four years ago and believes he can do so again. so get your friends, get your family, get your neighbours, get your co—workers, grab your boss by the tie and say, come on, boss. we've got to get out and vote, get out and vote. and you're going to have a day tomorrow, the likes of which i think people haven't seen in a long time.

his democratic rivaljoe biden has also been campaigning intensely in pennsylvania, arguing america must come together and get a grip on the pandemic. the first step to beating the virus is defeating donald trump. car horns blaring. it always matters who sits in the white house, but the choice facing americans today is stark. this feels like the most pivotal presidential election in decades and the huge early voting turnout reflects that. it is also a big test for america's democracy and whether it can peacefully steer this nation through a deeply polarised moment. # i'm off the deep end. # watch as i dive in. # i'll never...#. tonight, lady gaga joined joe biden at a drive—in campaign event in pittsburgh. after decades in public life, mr biden could be on the cusp of the presidency. donald trump is in the fight of his life, still thrilling his crowds,

still predicting possible bedlam after the election. this evening he stopped in wisconsin before wrapping up his travels in michigan. a campaign going to the wire. ben wright, bbc news, washington. how are the candidates spending tuesday, the kind of critical day in many ways but a day when they can do very much? that's right. all of this money and effort and campaigning and passion on the two sides has brought us to this point. president trump has kicked off his day as he did in 2016 by speaking to friends and he spoke to them on election day and

spoke to them on election day and spoke about his campaign and how we felt they had done enough not only to win but actually improve on his electoral college total of 306 from four years ago. of course, thejoe biden campaign tried to turn this into a referendum on president trump in many ways and one would say in a sense they have been pretty successful in doing that certainly in terms of the campaigning. it does really co m e in terms of the campaigning. it does really come down to a decision for many americans and whether or not the like are happy with the direction the country is heading in and happy with president trump at the helm. but as you say, for the two men themselves, there is not much they can do today. what about the perspective on white america and what is happening in washington? the us is influential today and the economies of central and south america. it's a place of dreams for many migrants. what have the last four years been like and how important is the selection to people

there? i can't recall an election that has been scrutinised so closely in the wider region as this one. i came here from cuba, watching events u nfold came here from cuba, watching events unfold in cuba and the cuban—american vote is key in south florida. so the way the trump administration has gradually ramped up administration has gradually ramped up the sanctions on cuba isn't part ofan up the sanctions on cuba isn't part of an effort to garner those votes. of course as you mentioned, central america and the migrant question, mexico is well, the president of mexico is well, the president of mexico said the administration would be ready either way no matter who wins today. it is an extremely polarised presidency. it has divided people and across the region that is true. for my money, the cubans are watching this so carefully because they could be the difference between four more years of economic sanctions or return to the policies they began to enjoy under president

0bama. after one of the most divisive presidential campaigns in decades, polling day has finally arrived in the united states. nearly 100 million americans have already voted by postal vote and a high turnout is forecast. with me is ameshia cross, political commentator and democratic strategist, who joins me from washington, and ren brewster, who is a political commentator and member of the republican party. the democrats wanted to make this a referendum on president trump's for yea rs referendum on president trump's for years in office. what has he been trying to achieve during this campaign in terms of defining not only what he's done but what he would like to do if he wins for the next four years? he wants to continue on this economic growth and create more jobs of course and he

also wants to build on what he has in the last four years. a strong economy, strong border, strong military and a good future for americans. he feels he can recover from this pandemic and help america recover from this pandemic and from this pandemic and help america recoverfrom this pandemic and move forward in the next four years to have an even better economy. do you think thatjoe biden has succeeded in that ambition and has he banished the reservations there are about him asa the reservations there are about him as a nearly man of american politics? fresh exciting new faces only happen in politics of food —— every few decades. that's not exactly what many voters are looking for. what they want is somebody who is sound and makes good judgment calls. somebody who is a uniter not a

divider. somebody who understands race relations and why we need to change things. someone who has the experience and is ready to step forth and create a healthcare plan that works for everyone. there is a pa rt of that works for everyone. there is a part of america that is so emboldened by the 0bama coalition. that is why we see so many people coming out and be excited forjoe biden and barack 0bama on the election trail. but for those who have propagated a ransom of the things that have been said by the trump campaign aboutjoe biden, i personally don't think that a career in public service as anything to throw a shoe at. that is something many americans are proud of. a career in public service means you have a devotion to this democracy. that is not something we should talk negatively about. it's a calling. when you take a role in government and you have devoted your life to

serving the people that is something that should be respected. both of you will be pleased to see just how many people want to vote in the selection. the turnout is up significantly. it's worth reminding ourselves over the side of the atla ntic ourselves over the side of the atlantic whoever wins this election won't take office until the end of january next year. that leaves plenty of time for argument over the result. how do you think we can best judge it? is the measure really to compare donald trump as my performance to four years ago where he won through the electoral college but didn't win the popular vote? is the test this time to win the popular vote? he wants to win the popular vote? he wants to win the popular vote? he wants to win the popular vote but he's also focusing on winning florida, north carolina, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan. if he wins those, these —— this election

is over. the popular vote is skewed because you have a huge population in california and in new york and massachusetts and that skews the popular vote. the popular vote does not determine who wins the presidency and it never has. it wasn't brought up until hillary supposedly won the popular vote four yea rs supposedly won the popular vote four years ago. we had similar arguments in 2000. this is the american system. a lot of people don't grasp that the american system is not about the vote of everybody having the same value in determining who becomes president. it's not about one man and one vote as becomes president. it's not about one man and one vote as it is elsewhere. you are correct. what we

know in america is that the electoral college carries a lot of weight. but we have to understand the historical president of why the electoral college was created in the first place. the electoral college came out of the fight for african americans to not be able to have their votes counted at the same rate as white landowning americans post slavery. the electoral college is not something that was created as a theatre of democracy. it was created out of discrimination. questions about whether we should continue with the electoral college are very valid. the popular vote, we had decades of it not making a difference, but donald trump is not trying to push for the popular vote. he lost it by a lot the last go around. where he knows his path leads is possibly through

pennsylvania. he has said time and again pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. other battle grounds, they are a lot closer. when you have those close states that he is poised to lose this time, it puts his campaign on the defence and we have seen out on the campaign trail sparking these rallies and getting excited but knowing that is not showing up in the vote totals. for joe biden campaign is excited about winning some states the democrats haven't stood a chance in the three decades. my biggest fear is that should donald trump lose, he has done the most he can to try to shut down the results of this election. he said he is going to claim victory before the votes are called in many states and i think he is deftly going to do that. this is a president who is dead set on trying to create a win for himself even though the votes won't be in.

if donald trump were to lose this election, might that be a positive thing for the republican party? they would be up against 70 —— the president is 70s who might only serve one term. might it be a good election to lose? it's never a good election to lose? it's never a good election to lose? it's never a good election to lose. what is going to happen is donald trump will win the next four years and then mike pence is ready to run for president in four years. one thing about donald trump and worrying about him not succeeding but saying there are going to be problems if he doesn't win, right now there are certain major cities were boarding up their business districts. that is not in

case the republicans lose tonight. that's because if the democrats lose there is going to be more carnage on our streets in major cities. and if joe biden loses tonight, presumably he will accept the result and concede. do you think he will do that will he be tempted to the result? joe biden will make sure that every single vote is counted. he will do what has always been done in this country where we make sure every vote is counted. if it is that tight, like we saw in 2000, we will see those challenges. that is the american way. what we do know is that this is going to be very

interesting election cycle. with so many people having voted early, it sends a great signal tojoe biden andl sends a great signal tojoe biden and i think his camp right now is very excited about what's going to happen tonight. thank you both for joining us. you are in for a long day and an even longer night. thank you both. the wales manager ryan giggs has denied an allegation of assault — and says he's cooperating with police enquiries — after he was arrested on suspicion of assaulting his girlfriend. and it's been announced giggs won't be involved in the upcoming international camp for the wales team. our sports news reporter laura scott has the latest. shortly after 10pm on sunday night police were called to a disturbance at ryan giggs' home in salford. the former manchester united player was

arrested on suspicion of actual bodily harm and assault but he has been released on bail pending further enquiries. according to greater manchester police, women in the 30s believed to be his girlfriend sustained minor injuries but didn't require further treatment. a statement on behalf of giggs' representatives said mr giggs denies all allegations. he is cooperating with the police and will assist them in their ongoing investigations. the football association of wales postponed the squad announcement this morning but in the last few minutes they have said the next three games against the us, finland and the republic of ireland, wales will be without ryan giggs and they say their priority is preparing the team for the upcoming international matches. another child has been rescued from rubble in the turkish city of izmir after friday's earthquake.

there were shouts ofjoy as the 3—year—old girl was pulled from a collapsed building. she'd been shielded from serious injury after being trapped behind a washing machine. her mother is believed to be still trapped beneath the rubble. 100 people are now known to have died following friday's quake, the vast majority in the city of izmir. aged 67. he was best known for his work onn spitting image and whose line is it anyway?. he was also a character actor, appearing in films like kenneth branagh‘s henry the fifth and tv series including itv‘s victoria. efforts to refloat more than sixty pilot whales stranded off sri lanka's west coast have paid off. the country's navy, with help from environmental protection officers, police, and local residents, have saved all of the whales except for one.

it's thought to be the largest stranding in sri lanka but the cause is currently unknown. a marine biologist said the whales, which measure about five metres long, were clearly exhausted by the long ordeal. the bushfires that raged across australia this time last year caused devastation. as well as claiming more than 30 lives, the country's wildlife was also badly hit. the koala population was decimated — and ever since volunteers on kanagaroo island have been doing their best to help them recover. our australia correspondent shaimaa khalil reports. they survived australia's fires. now these koalas are ready to go back where they belong. it's a very different scene from nearly a year ago. pictures of the badly burned animals shocked the world. hundreds were brought to this wildlife park when the flames tore through the island. as well as being faced with the burns and the starvation and the dehydration, they were also very mentally affected as well. a lot of them were just feeling so terrible that they were just kind of cuddled in a ball, they didn't have that fight response

which a wild animal should. of the 50,000 koalas living on kangaroo island before the bushfire, it's feared most of them were killed. images of the destruction and the loss of wildlife were seen across the globe, prompting millions of dollars in donations. it was just incredible to see how many people from pretty much every country in the world jumped on board to donate to looking after and saving as much wildlife on kangaroo island here as we could. helping koalas survive here is vital for australia's ecology. it's the one place where the animals are disease—free. for months now, hundreds of koalas have been looked after in the wildlife park, and it's been a long and tough journey for many of them. the aim is to get them strong enough to survive on their own here in the wild. and today, one of them is being released. after ten months of care, it's time for merton's big move. ready? are you watching? here goes the koala. 0h, here he goes!

for dana, it's a bittersweet separation. there's no better feeling watching someone that you've helped either raise from a joey, or get through all of that treatment, and then get them back out to the wild, watching them climb back out of a tree, where they're meant to be. it'll take years for the island to recover, but it's hoped koalas like merton can still thrive in a much changed habitat. bye — bye. bye—bye, koala. bye — bye, koala. shaimaa khalil, bbc news, kangaroo island. now it's time for a look at the weather. there are some spectacular autumn colours about at the moment. following on from the rain yesterday and overnight they were still flood warnings in force but they should be coming down in the next day or two because high pressure is being

invited in from the atlantic for wednesday, thursday and friday and saturday for some. so maybe three or four days for dry unsettled weather. for the rest of the day there are still some lively showers. the early rain is clearing but these showers will produce some sleet in the north. it does feel chilly for all of us despite the winds being lighter. the winds continue to ease overnight and for england and wales it will be our first widespread frost of the season. temperatures widely to zero or below in the countryside and even in some towns and cities. not quite as cold across scotla nd and cities. not quite as cold across scotland but you can see southern scotla nd scotland but you can see southern scotland and northern ireland pretty chilly. mist and fog first thing tomorrow to watch out for. once that clears the way they will be far fewer showers. the main chance of showers across the northern isles in the western isles in far north of ireland scotland. still wintry on

the hills. temperatures recovering a bit tomorrow because you have light winds and a bit more sunshine. as we going to thursday, another cold start. you can see that cloudy weather in the north again with much of scotla nd weather in the north again with much of scotland escaping a frost. at another cold night further south. fog becomes our main issue. it could be quite dense and quite widespread particularly for england in way is. at this time of year it can linger until late morning and in some places linger all day. so here it will be called where the fog lingers but the most of us outside the fog nine to 11 degrees and a little bit warmer across scotland. as we progress towards the end of the week, that fog is likely to become more of an issue for scotland. hopefully the dry weather hanging on until at least the first half of the weekend and then it's potentially all change.

this is bbc news. the headlines. the uk's terrorism threat level has been raised to "severe". the home secretary says it is a precautionary measure — following recent attacks in europe. this is a precautionary measure following the terrible instances that we've have seen in france last week and the events that we saw in austria last night. austria's chancellor describes last night's shootings in vienna as an islamist terror attack that was born out of hatred for democracy. the campaigning is over — americans head to the polls to choose their next president, with nearly 100 million early votes already cast. he will take office injanuary next year. as parliament prepares to debate a second lockdown for england, the country's senior scientific advisors stress to mps the covid