the first polls are about to close in one of the most important elections in our lifetime. can donald trump win four more years in the white house? or canjoe biden pull off a historic victory? the eyes of the world are on this election. and both candidates have spent the last 48 hours in a final dash for votes. donald trump ended his campaign with a rally in michigan — a state he won four years ago by the narrowest of margins. he then headed back to the white house, where he'll give his verdict on the results when they come in. joe biden was in ohio and pennsylvania — midwest states that may hold the key to this election. he has enjoyed a lead in the polls for months,

but that will count for nothing if his supporters don't turn out. here in america, voters have been standing in line since dawn to have their say in an election that's split the country. it looks like turnout will be up on last time — despite the coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than 200,000 americans. jon sopel and nick bryant are with the president and his rival. i'll be live at the white house, where the president is planning a party for 400. whether it will be a celebration or a wake remains to be seen. joe biden announced his first bid for the white house 33 years ago, but is 2020 his moment? at the age of 77, has his time finally come? 0ur correspondents will be live from all the key battle ground states in this vast country. including clive myrie in pennsylvania. so many of the roads that could lead to the white house

forjoe biden and donald trump run through pennsylvania. its 20 electoral college votes could put either man over the top. so all eyes will be on the keystone state, won by donald trump in 2016 by less than 1% of the vote. tina daheley will have regular news updates for us throughout the night. at the touch—screen, keeping track of the votes as they stack up, is christian fraser. this is how it finished four years ago and this is the magic number we need to keep in mind. 270 electoral couege need to keep in mind. 270 electoral college votes or more will give one of these two men the white house. we wa nt to of these two men the white house. we want to hack the vote as it comes in east to west. we will focus in on the crucial battle ground states and i'll project for you the best route these two men have to the white house. in a few minutes' time we

will wipe the slate clean. we are ready for the results to come in. we'll be joined by a team of election experts and strategists from both parties to help us interpret the numbers, and discuss what the outcome means here in the united states and the rest of the world. tonight will be a watershed, a profound moment of history. so, join us for all the excitement of election night in america — here on the bbc. so, katty, an extraordinary election campaign, for in a pandemic, both candidates over 70, in that age group most vulnerable to the virus. 0ne group most vulnerable to the virus. one of them catches it, the west wing of the white house becomes an

epicentre of the epidemic. another candidate seems to spend most of his time ina candidate seems to spend most of his time in a basement. 0utside, america is divided as never before since the vietnam years and tens of millions of americans have gone to the polls to vote in this election. yeah, america has gone to the polls 59 times in peacetime, war, depression, prosperity, but this election certainly feels completely unique. it has at the centre of it of course donald trump, who has made this presidency about him, who has become a source of fascination right around the world, and this election tonight really is a referendum on one person. it's a referendum on donald trump and we will see whether the americans decide to give him another four years in the white horse or whether there is a side four years was enough. there great nervousness and concern across america, illinois

and concern across america, illinois and pennsylvania have mobilised the national guard but it must be said in voting today so far there's been no real trouble at all. it's been as normal, pretty peaceful, let's hope it stays that way. let's go to the bbc‘s north america editorjon sopel bbc‘s north america editorjon sopel, at the white house in washington, dc. what is the mood in the trump camp is the polls start to close 7 the trump camp is the polls start to close? a i think nervous and i don't know any politician who has never been nervous when the polls are about to close. i think there's a degree of apprehension, but i'm also sensing that there is some relief and happiness that the red wave that donald trump promised would emerge oi'i donald trump promised would emerge on polling day has indeed emerged, so we on polling day has indeed emerged, so we went into this election with the early voting, staggering numbers, some 100 million people having voted early, which was thought to have givenjoe biden an edgein thought to have givenjoe biden an edge in some of these key races i'm sure you and katty will be talking about throughout the night, but that

in pennsylvania and in florida and in some of the other key states, it's very, very tight indeed, that the people have come out to vote and maybe that is giving them some relief. 0ne maybe that is giving them some relief. one of donald trump 's key advisers has done a call with reporters and what he has told us is that donald trump is feeling better about this race tonight than he was about this race tonight than he was about the race in 2016. now, that may be talk, we don't have data yet, but that is the mood music. thanks, john, we will be back to you, a lot. we are all waiting for that data, a reminder some of the votes will be counted fast and some of them will be counted more slowly because so many were sent in by post because of course of the pandemic, so we all have to be very patient tonight. nick bryant is that the biden headquartered in delaware. joe biden has tried to become president twice before and hasn't got there. do they feel third time is a charm? i've been speaking to one of his most

senior advisers, katty, and been speaking to one of his most senioradvisers, katty, and he is supremely confident. i'm astonished about how openly confident they are thatjoe biden about how openly confident they are that joe biden will become the president—elect. they are not making any attempt to conceal it, despite the false prophecies that came out of the clinton camp four years ago at precisely the same time in the evening. and they are looking at states like georgia and they are confident of a state like georgia. georgia hasn't gone democrats since 1992. they are even talking about the possibility of winning texas, which hasn't gone democrats since jimmy carter in1976. which hasn't gone democrats since jimmy carter in 1976. i don't think they are with confident of winning florida, they regard that as a toss—up, but they are happy with numbers in north carolina, arizona and the three key rust belt states, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. given what happened four years ago, given that the hillary clinton team we re given that the hillary clinton team were saying the same thing, i am astonished at how confident they are being, but when i said that to the

senior adviser he said, well, i've got no reason not to be confident. well, i think that if they are that confident this early on then we don't know whether they are seeing early data and this is something that happens, andrew, is you get mixed messages from the campaigns at this stage in the evening, right? they are both trying to spin the numbers as they see them and we will be reporting the results as they come in. we won't be reporting the spin as it comes in, but we will be giving you the results and again, patience, this is an unusual election, so many votes sent in by mailand so many election, so many votes sent in by mail and so many different states counting the votes in different ways, some states we may have to wait several days to get a final result. they are both talking up their game because they know a lot of americans have still to vote and they want americans to think if they vote for them... they want americans to think if they vote for them. .. and that is their job. they will be on the winning side, so everything said at the moment we take with a large pinch of

salt. let's cross over to christian fraser at the bbc touch—screen. patients was never my strong suit, i'm impatient, what an exciting night we have ahead of us. this is how it finished for years ago. i'm going to throw lots of numbers at you from the screen, the one you need to keep foremost in your mind is that one there, 270 or more electoral college votes will hand the white house to one of these two men but let's go back to 2016, back to the beginning and remember, the president is in republican red. his challenger, joe biden, is in democrat blue. there are 538 electoral college votes across this map and each state has a set number of electoral college votes. if you win the popular vote in that state you take all the basket of electoral couege you take all the basket of electoral college votes, with the exception of maine and nebraska, but we will park those for a moment. don't be deceived by these big blocks of red or blue. it's not about the

geography of the state, it's about the numberof geography of the state, it's about the number of people that live in that state. so montana is a very good example. i've mentioned it before. it's one of the size of the uk, it only has around a million people living there so it only gets three electoral college votes. a few steers out there who might know colorado, 5 million people in colorado, 5 million people in colorado, nine electoral college votes whereas california, over 40 million people, therefore it's the king of the pile, it gets 55 electoral college votes. the interesting thing about election 2016 was that hillary clinton in fa ct 2016 was that hillary clinton in fact when the popular vote, when all the votes across the country were counted she was ahead by two and a half million but the trick is as donald trump showed in 2016, you need to pile up your support in those states with the most precious electoral college votes and he did that in the midwest, in pennsylvania, in which you can and wisconsin, where he won micro in each state by less than 1%.

christian, you and i have been speaking about the selection for the last four years. i'm last four speaking about the selection for the last four years. i'm very glad we are finally here, that we have something to talk about. tell us about the route through florida and why florida matters so much to donald trump butjoe biden could win the white house without it? donald trump butjoe biden could win the white house without mm donald trump butjoe biden could win the white house without it? it is important to night for two reasons, it is how the vote is counted and when it will be counted. if i am joe biden and i'm sitting tonight in my hq, in biden and i'm sitting tonight in my h 0, in campaign hq, i'm thinking, what do i have to do? i have to rebuild this blue wall around the great lakes in the midwest. i've got to turn wisconsin and michigan blue, which he's been polling well in and pennsylvania, where he grew up, of course, but the thing is about the midwest, he's already 270 if he does that, not a given by any stretch of the imagination but that would take over the magic number, the imagination but that would take overthe magic number, but the imagination but that would take over the magic number, but the thing is there are so many of these mail in ballots that have been sent in and they are not going to count them

all for several days, so we are going to have to be patient in the north. let's reset the map and look at the early vote that comes in and where we might be focusing on the early part of the night. we might be focusing on north carolina, where polls are very tight. let's put north carolina in blue. if we put florida in blue and these two count pretty well, we know all the mail in ballots will go in at the beginning of the count at the beginning of the night, joe biden could be on 276 but florida always on a knife edge, we remember2000. florida always on a knife edge, we remember 2000. what if we put in arizona, which also counts very quickly, 258, then we start focusing oi'i quickly, 258, then we start focusing on the midwest again but joe quickly, 258, then we start focusing on the midwest again butjoe biden very close then. the point i think we need to make his donald trump has to win florida to get into this race tonight. he has to win all these states in the south in order to get into this race. the one thing about florida is no republican candidate has won the white house without florida since 1924 and calvin

coolidge. i love your toy, i'm quite jealous of it, because it gives you the chance to play god with all the different states. we have talked about the states that donald trump might lose stop are there any he might lose stop are there any he might win? are there any you might pick up, ones that hillary clinton w011 pick up, ones that hillary clinton won in 2016. which one are you looking at? i'd probably be looking at nevada, because nevada, the democrats did really well with their ground game, they got out, they registered a lot of people who were democrats, but of course in coronavirus times you and i have talked about it on our programme, they have been running a much lower key campaign and the republicans have ta ken advantage key campaign and the republicans have taken advantage and what you saw in nevada is the polls started to tighten. we might get a result like that, which will surprise us, and we got one of those in 2016 with 0hio, nobody expected that to go red. ohio, nobody expected that to go red. once it went red we were all sitting up and thinking, well, maybe this is donald trump 's night. 0k,

thank you, it's interesting, we are talking much more about the states thatjoe biden might take from donald trump than the states that donald trump than the states that donald trump than the states that donald trump might take from the democratic side. well, we knew he was going to be donald trump ‘s night when the results started coming from florida four years ago and showed that hillary clinton's campaign was in real trouble and florida will be again tonight key to the result. mr trump needs to win it. it's the only route he has to the white house, he needs to take florida. mr biden doesn't, but of course it would help if he does. so, let's go to nomia iqbal in miami. hi, andrew, yes, as you said, florida is a critical swing state. the polls are neck and neck, it's ha rd the polls are neck and neck, it's hard to call as it always is and i'm joined by kevin cooper, a republican who works here in miami. kevin, how

confident are you that your money is going to win tonight? fairly confident, you know, we've seen an out poor of support for this president the like of which we haven't seen ever. we have 30,000 republicans in miami—dade county who are first—time voters and they are coming out to support donald trump, we are seeing that we had 10,000 people coming down to support the president at the airport. there is a level of enthusiasm and support that is difficult to gauge but is definitely out there. why is that enthusiasm for him? other new voters? there are a lot of first—time voters, previously registered who hasn't voted before, they have 30,000 new voters compared to the democrats, only 15,000 in miami—dade county so a lot of voters are supporting the president. you say you are feeling fairly confident that we know florida is always a toss—up, even if a candidate gets 1% it's seen as a landslide. how can

you be so sure that he has got it sealed, given that this state has seen the coronavirus, for example, really affect people? early voting has been very close. but on election day to day is when the votes will really make a difference as to who will put joe biden really make a difference as to who will putjoe biden or donald trump over the top. we have seen a lot of republicans come out strongly. do you think donald trump will accept it if he loses florida? i don't know, i am it if he loses florida? i don't know, lam not it if he loses florida? i don't know, i am not a fortune teller, but if it is close, i do know there will bea if it is close, i do know there will be a challenge. what kind of challenge? in florida, we have a mandatory recount if the ballots are within certain numbers. it triggers an automatic recount. that happened after the 2000 election and we had it last year. so it is possible, but

i think donald trump is going to have a fantastic winter night in the state of florida. it is going to go way beyond recounts. so you don't trust the polls that suggest joe biden is in the lead? we know it is neck and neck in florida, but you don't believe that? in certain states, joe biden is ahead and in certain states, donald trump is ahead. in wisconsin, he is up by 8% in the early voting. thank you so much. the polls will be closing in around 15 minutes' time and we should start getting some early counts in and that will give us a sense of how the presidential race is shaping up. nomia iqbal in miami, thank you. it always seems to come back to florida. anyone with a memory of american politics back in 2000, it was only 537 votes that separated george w bush and al gore. one of them became president and the other didn't. so florida is always tight and this time, i think it is

going to be tight too. larry sabitzer is professor of politics at the university of virginia. he joins me now. i have here on my phone texts from people close to the biden campaign who tell me they are feeling confident, and texts from the trump campaign who tell me they are confident. who should i believe? you shouldn't believe either, although i have always thought trump had an edge in florida. there are a lot of moving parts, many moving in his direction. it's going to be close, floyd always is. it will drag on. if it is close enough, there will be some kind of recount or legal challenge. anyone who thinks this is going to be over tonight is in fora big this is going to be over tonight is in for a big disappointment. we have access to exit polling, which is when people stand outside the polling stations and they ask people who have just voted about who they are and why they have voted and i

kind of thing. they give us a sense of the demographics of the electorate and what is important to them. i want to bring up one of them, which is asking people what them, which is asking people what the most important issue works. there you see it. larry, what surprises you about those numbers and what does it tell you as an indication of which way voters might lean? i don't think it tells us much, because the economy is the magnet to which a large majority of trump voters go. trump has been emphasising that. it's the main argument that trump voters used to support the president. the other two issues you mentioned are primarily democrat issues, racial inequality in the way the administration has dealt with covid. if you add them up, it's pretty close between the

two sides. larry, we are expecting a big turnout, bigger than normal, perhaps one of the biggest turnouts of modern times, certainly since the second world war. does that help mr trump or second world war. does that help mr trump oer biden? second world war. does that help mr trump or mr biden? it depends where the turnout is coming from. every study we have done so far says that the early turnout is disproportionately democratic, that about 60% plus of the early voters voted for biden. however, those same studies show that 60% plus of those who voted today on the official election day offer donald trump. in the end, a vote is a vote, as gertrude stein might have said, had she been in politics. all votes are equal and we have to wait until we put them together and count them. when you look at the way american demographics are going, it is becoming a younger and more diverse

country, a less white country and are better educated country. a lot more people have college degrees that they had even four years ago. all that would seem to suggest that the demographics are going the democrats' way, yet it still seems at times to be a struggle for them to capitalise on that. why? because many of those groups do not register in large numbers and of those who are registered, they do not vote in large numbers. that is not true in every election, but it is true in many elections. ask hillary clinton. had she had a better turnout among minorities and young people, we would be talking about her re—election battle today. what you said is true. the long—term prospects look good for the democrats, but there is no substitute for organising well and getting your people out to vote. politics is the same everywhere, at least in democracies. larry, thank

you. we will be talking about virginia during the course of the evening because that demographic shift you spoke about, andrew, virginia was the canary in the coal mine. it's where it has already happened. by the way, larry has a double that divines elections. —— he has a crystal ball. pennsylvania is another key swing states, the one that put mr trump over the top four yea rs that put mr trump over the top four years ago. our clive myrie is in pennsylvania. yeah, hi. this state was barely won by donald trump in 2016, something like 44,000 votes, less than 1%. so the biden camp are confident that they can flip this the other way. joe biden has held a steady lead in the opinion polls for the last six months here, well beyond the margin of error,

something like eight percentage points. the mathematics are clear for the biden team. points. the mathematics are clear forthe biden team. keep points. the mathematics are clear for the biden team. keep all the states that hillary clinton won in 2016 and we take the rust belt states, michigan, wisconsin and here in pennsylvania, the keystone state. they are confident about that. what has the president got to do? he has to hope that his voters get out in massive numbers and have done so far today. we are hearing that some precincts reporting something like 90% so lots of enthusiasm, lots of people heeding the call from the president's camp to vote on the day. that is the only way he is going to be able to overturn what seems to be a big advantage in the early absentee ballots and mail votes that predominantly seem to have gone the way of the democrats. philadelphia and pittsburgh is biden country, so the dogfight will be in the suburbs.

i would keep an eye out on the net for erie in the north—west, a bellwether county. these flipped from president president obama donald trump in the senate race, they flipped back. but the big question here is those massive amounts of mail—in ballots, 2.4 million. some states haven't started counting them yet. they will start tomorrow. it will take some time before either man finds out whether or not they have won and we might not even find that out until friday. pennsylvania could be the thing that is keeping us up for days and days, giving us all a headache by the end of the week. with us throughout the night are some of america's finest

political strategists. we'll introduce them as we go along. mary anne marsh is a democratic political strategist in boston, massachusetts. let me pick up on what we were talking about with larry. it is a question a lot in our viewers around the world might have. the demographics of america are shifting in the democrats' direction. donald trump is one of the most unusual and perhaps controversial presidents the country has ever had, and yet this may turn out to be a struggle forjoe biden. what is it about the make—up of the country in this election? as larry sabato said, it depends which states the votes come from. that is why georgia, texas and arizona are in play. democrats have a great shot at all of them. it would be shocking to

wina all of them. it would be shocking to win a place like texas. giorgio looks like it could happen. but ironically, joe biden is also going to rely on the white vote as well. the bigger the share of white votes he gets, the more likely it is that he gets, the more likely it is that he will win, especially in states like florida, believe it or not. if joe biden gets 40% of the white vote in florida, he probably wins friday. florida has always dabbled the democrats and it is a tough state and obama won it, but no democrat has won it since. but those are the things you have to look at. 100 million people in this country voted before the polls opened this morning. 129 million voted in 2016. there are projections that say up to 160 million people will vote by the end of the night tonight in the united states of america, which would break all records and as an american, that makes me feel wonderful. but if donald trump is relying on turnout today, he has to

outperform 15 plus percentage points in every place that matters, those nine states that will decide the election. let me bring in a former adviser to president trump. he is in virginia. brian, isn't the truth that for the president to hold on to the white house, he has to repeat what he did four years ago, he has to win the same states. he has only one route to the white house and its through florida and pennsylvania. lightning needs to strike twice for president trump to win re—election. he has to win florida, north carolina, hold on to georgia, go to pennsylvania and ohio. he could get away with not winning wisconsin or michigan, but he would have to win arizona. the strategy guys feel they have done all they can and there is a general feeling that they are

waiting for lightning to strike again. but here is the point - lightning doesn't strike twice. we will see. we are in for a special night if you are expecting lightning strike twice, but we will be back with our panels. cathy, it is amazing how america changes even in the course of four years. there are 5 million fewer americans without couege 5 million fewer americans without college degrees than there were only four years ago. the country has got much younger. this is now the first election in which the baby boomers are not the dominant demographic. the millennials and generation z are now the biggest cohort. it's a younger and better educated country. it's a more diverse country. these

are all changes that are tough for the republicans. yeah, and that younger generation are much more liberal than their parents were perhaps even at their age. they are more in favour of gay rights, more aware of racial injustice in the country. they are more interested in climate change issues and they are more interested in economic inequality in the country. if you see how they are dragging the country, it is in the democrats' direction. the question for the republican party is, can they either expand on donald trump's base and bring out the vote has donald trump found in 2016, more white, more working class white men? or can they reach out to a different demographic? that will be of the challenge for the republican party in the future, whoever wins. and it becomes a war of differential turnout. mr trump's base is smaller.

he has to squeeze that and get it out. mr biden's base is bigger, but he needs to get it out as well. its 7pm on the eastern seaboard of the united states, six states have closed their polling, georgia, virginia, south carolina, indiana, vermont and kentucky have closed their poles at 7pm on the eastern seaboard. let's have a look at some of these states now there polls have closed. indiana, a strong state, we arejust waiting, closed. indiana, a strong state, we are just waiting, actually, closed. indiana, a strong state, we arejust waiting, actually, i'm jumping the gun here, but actually we've got it now, we can project that indiana is for trump, no surprise there, 11 electoral college votes, he won it strongly in 2016. it looks like he's going to win it strongly again, only 7% of the vote counted but our projection suggests

that he is going to hold indiana. he needs to hold indiana and some of the other states that came out at 7pm tonight, kentucky is too early to project but it's a likely hold fortrump, he is to project but it's a likely hold for trump, he is already a little bit ahead there with only 12% of the vote counted. that is likely, a southern state, to stay in the trump camp before mrtrump southern state, to stay in the trump camp before mr trump it needs to stay in the camp. the key state of the first fix that have closed there polls is georgia, because that is in contention, unlike the other five. georgia is too early to project at the moment. they haven't really started counting. cathy, this is one of these states we were talking about the changing demographics, georgia, a southern state, a deep southern state, solidly republican, a republican governor, republican house, republican senate but because of the growth of atlanta younger

people, more urban and suburban people, more urban and suburban people as well, better educated too, it's now in contention to some degree. yeah, in a way you wouldn't even have anticipated five or ten yea rs even have anticipated five or ten years ago in america stop i want to talk more about george in a second but we do now have some results, which is fun on our electoral couege which is fun on our electoral college barometer. 270, that is the number they need to win, joe biden in blue, in zero, donald trump and red has notched up 11 of those. this does not mean very much at the moment. this does not mean, for example, that donald trump has won the white house again because those two states, as andrew was pointing out, kentucky and indiana, our states, he won indiana by 19 percentage points in 2016, he won kentucky by 30 in 2016, if he had not won them the earth would swallow both of us hold because we would

have been that gobsmacked he didn't win them so these are states we expected him to win. georgia is such an interesting state to talk about, five or ten years ago i wouldn't have thought georgia was going into the democratic column, it's still the democratic column, it's still the south, it played a pivotal role in the american civil war. it feels very southern when you go there, but, as you said, atlantica, main metropolitan area in the whole state, 63,000 people have moved into the city of atlanta alone over the course of this year so in one year they've added 63,000 people, that makes the state more urban, it makes it younger, it has a disproportionately high number of younger people voting, all of those are things that feel more democratic than republican. and it's a young state, 50% of the electorate is now under the age of 40 and that tends to help the democrats, if they can get them out to vote. this has a lwa ys get them out to vote. this has always been the problem. the baby

boomers, you can't get rid of them so boomers, you can't get rid of them so easily. they keep on turning out to vote in huge numbers. speak for yourself, andrew! you are too young to bea yourself, andrew! you are too young to be a baby boomer, you are more like generation said to me, katty! but it's this war of differential turnout. can you get these younger people, who are kind of in the driving seat of the vote, can you get them out. and remember, the margins are tiny, tiny, tiny, we are talking about 10,000 votes in one state that can make all the difference. indeed, very close in the battle ground states. let's go to barbara plett usher in wilmington, delaware, wherejoe biden is. barbara. yes, hello from wilmington. i'm at the chase convention centre, the headquarters for the night for the biden harris campaign and the night is young, the first polls have just closed and with me to get an early take on all of this is tom paris, the chairman

of this is tom paris, the chairman of the democratic national committee. thank you, mr parris, for joining us here. it's an honour to be here on this historic evening. competing with the background music. correct. the campaign is very optimistic, very bullish. what about you? are optimistic, very bullish. what about you ? are you optimistic, very bullish. what about you? are you still cautious, given what happened in 2016?|j you? are you still cautious, given what happened in 2016? i would describe myself as cautiously optimistic because we have multiple pathways to success. success is 270 electoral votes. we have a linear pathway of wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and we won all the state—wide seats in those states in 2018 and we've been working hard for the last four years but there's so many more, there's florida, georgia, north carolina. i spent the weekend in texas which is absolutely in play. we have iowa, we have ohio, we have arizona and what all of the states ijust have arizona and what all of the states i just mentioned have arizona and what all of the states ijust mentioned have in common is those other states that donald trump won. we are playing

offe nce, donald trump won. we are playing offence, he is playing defence, we have multiple pathways. georgia, the democrats haven't ta ken have multiple pathways. georgia, the democrats haven't taken that since 1992. what makes you so confident about george? well, georgia has seen about george? well, georgia has seen a remarkable demographic explosion. georgia, a generation ago, diversity was mostly black and white, today, there is a huge latino population, a huge asian american population, the seven congressional district is a perfect example of that. it's metropolitan atlanta and uc democrats poised to win that house seat. again, 20 years ago or 15 years ago, that would be unthinkable, and it's people like stacey abrahams, the candidate for governor in 2018, she has invested so governor in 2018, she has invested so strategically in registering vote rs so strategically in registering voters and the excitement there, you look at the atlanta area, they exceeded their 2016 totals in the

early vote alone, so everything they've done today is above and beyond their 2016 and i think enthusiasm and turnout, when it's high like it is and its historically high like it is and its historically high this year, that's going to help us. high this year, that's going to help us. and what will you be looking for is the night progresses? you sound quite confident. where will you be looking cautiously and where will you be looking for signs of things going in the direction you don't wa nt going in the direction you don't want it to go? every state has a different answer to that. wants the top priority for you turnout is really key for us. we are looking at latino voters, for instance, in the early vote with latino voters, 8.6 million latino voters voted early four years ago it was 4.2 million, so four years ago it was 4.2 million, so latinos have awakened across this electorate, in texas they have awakened to a huge way. yes, but they are also voting for donald trump. well, actually, our goal is

70% of latinos across the country, that's what barack obama got. when you win in the aggregate, when you wina you win in the aggregate, when you win a community by 40 points, that's kind of a blow out up that is our goal. i think we can do it. donald trump, the day he walked down the escalator of trump tower was disrespecting mexican americans, latinos generally come he wanted to trade puerto rico for greenland and what he has done at the mexican border, people in texas are remembering that, the disrespect he has shown, and that's why i gain, when you ask your question, what are we looking at, we are looking at turnout among key constituencies and what we are seeing in the biden coalition is a combination of hard—core coalition is a combination of ha rd—core democrats, left—wing democrats, independent voters and john mccain republicans. that's an

addition, it's a broad coalition, donald trump 's is very narrow. thank you very much, we will leave it there, done para —— tom harris of the democratic national committee. lets go back to our panel of experts, we have amanda renteria, a former political director for hillary clinton in california and ron christie, former special adviser to george w bush, in washington, dc. ron, iwant to george w bush, in washington, dc. ron, i want to start with you. i mentioned earlier to our viewers we get these exit polls which tell us the kinds of things people are interested in. they also tell us quite a lot in granular detail about the demographics of people who have voted this time around and we have exit polling from georgia that andrew and i were talking about earlier. i want to bring you the types of people who have been voting for donald trump in georgia can because we are seeing some interesting shifts there. it runs through them, people you say they

are republicans, white evangelicals, white men, etc. here's what i want to talk about, the people who are white evangelicals, the we know they have been a core constituency for donald trump, they really drove him to the white house in 2016 and if donald trump wants to win the white house again he's got to hope he's got good turnout again amongst white evangelicals. in georgia, white evangelicals. in georgia, white evangelicals make up about one third of the electorate, but, look at this. he's getting 84% of them, it might sound cracking but it's 8% less, down eight percentage points compared to 2016. can donald trump win the white house again if wife white evangelicals don't turn out for him in big numbers in 2016, ron? good evening to you, katty. i believe he can win in georgia. this isa believe he can win in georgia. this is a really difficult state for republicans, in 2016 and previous election cycles. there are more younger people, more diverse people there, but keep in mind also we have

two senate races, not one. two senate races on the ballot tonight. we have an incumbent republican senator fighting a strong democratic challenger and we have an open seat with the incumbent kelly loeffler who is fighting to hold on. the question to me becomes can the republicans make significant inroads in communities of colour and we seem polling that indicates the president has been doing better with people of colour, and how can he make inroads with younger voters? if you can do that and still get the percentage of the evangelical voters you mentioned, donald trump has a good path to win the state of georgia fazio it's interesting you say about people of colour and african african—americans and latinos, who might be attracted to donald trump 's message. he spent a lot of time in the course of his presidency, particularly courting african—american men and latino voting men as well. is there a natural home, do you think, for some of those voters in donald trump?

yes, katty, ithink of those voters in donald trump? yes, katty, i think actions speak louder of those voters in donald trump? yes, katty, i think actions speak louder than words and a number of people of colour from around the united states before coronavirus hitters recognised we have the lowest number of unemployed since 1979, similar with latino voters and if i'm a person of colour, which obviously i am and i look at this and say who has delivered in less than four micro years hunt who has been making promises for 40 some odd years you might want to give donald trumpa years you might want to give donald trump a chance, i think there is a path for him. interesting, ron, thank you. let's go to amanda renteria, whojoins us now. amanda, we are putting georgia into the toss—up category, which is probably the first time we've done this for a long time in a presidential election night. normally we would think of it is going pretty solid republican because it only went 5% for mr trump in 2016, but i suspect as a democrat you will be encouraged that georgia tonight is in contention?”

you will be encouraged that georgia tonight is in contention? i am incredibly encouraged, but i have to say 2018 it was also closer, when stacey abrams ran for governor she was two to three points away so it's moving in this direction, there's beena moving in this direction, there's been a lot of work behind the themes on infrastructure, etc, to get out younger voters, communities of colour and i have to say while we wa nt colour and i have to say while we want to talk about economics and i understand that's certainly what republicans want to talk about, what's happening on the ground and a lot of these communities is the effects of covid not only are black and brown communities part of essential workers but they are being affected by covid in their own families and that has really made it very difficult for whether you are talking about trump or any of the senate candidates to say they actually care about this growing community out of atlanta and the suburbs around atlanta and that's what we're seeing make a real difference and it was already moving in the direction so adding in the impact of covid has really changed

up, not only now but going into the future as well. except when you look at who has moved to the biden column, the change in the share of the vote, the share of black women and black men has actually come down and black men has actually come down a bit according to our exit poll, but he's gained most among graduates, up 10% in share, and those earning under 50,000, but he seems for some reason to have lost the under 30s. it's a pretty mixed picture as to how the route to victory has been, and of course we don't yet know it is a bit —— if it isa don't yet know it is a bit —— if it is a victory. it's a toss—up and we can't yet call it. yeah, what will be interesting as they've done a lot of work within the colleges all throughout georgia, really stacey abrams started that work in her governor's run and has continued its free. the other piece that has been interesting is the two senate races has garnered quite a bit of attention, john safe has really built out his own base and i think

you are seeing that as well in the numbers in terms of who is coming out, where they are falling, and i think there's another aspect here, which is trump now has a record so people are taking a different look than they were in 2016 and wondering what's happening in georgia —— jon ossoff. i'm curious to see these numbers come in, what do those atla nta numbers come in, what do those atlanta suburbs look like and how the strategies around college educated, around educated communities, really moving the needle in georgia. amanda and ron, thank you. katty, the fox news network is projecting virginia for joe biden, no great surprise there, but the interesting thing is it was a southern state, it used to be very red, went purple, is now pretty blue, is pretty solidly in the blue column, and! blue, is pretty solidly in the blue column, and i guess that's what the democrats hope that this may be the start tonight, if they get georgia, of georgia following in the path of virginia.

they are quite similar states. virginia had a big role in the civil war. there are rural areas of virginia that still feel very like the deep south of the united states, and yet there are these big northern suburbs outside washington, dc with far more hispanics and asian americans, a lot more college—educated women who have moved into the area. all those groups that vote democrat. when we spoke to larry sabato at the university of virginia, it was an area that used to be associated with that white southern institution. i have a son who studies that it is full of hispanics, asian americans and people from all over the world. that is how virginia has changed. it is also how georgia is starting to change as well. let's get our correspondent in charlotte, north carolina, perhaps another state that is changing as well. north carolina

is changing as well. north carolina isa is changing as well. north carolina is a state that barack obama won but went back to donald trump in 2016. do the democrats think they can get it back this time, larry? they think they can get it back, but it's really complicated. as you mentioned, barack obama won it but only once, because they also voted for mitt romney in 2012. north carolina has picked the president three out of the last four times. this time, the polls are really tight. some of them have joe biden leading really narrowly. this time, one poll out had donald trump with a very one poll out had donald trump with a very narrow one poll out had donald trump with a very narrow lead, within the margin of error. this state has 15 electoral college votes. joe biden has been here three times. they are all hoping they can take north carolina. if president trump loses north carolina, there are lots of warning lights across the dashboard because it should have been a solid state for him. i have got two

conservative voters who support president trump with me. my namesake larry is vice—chair of the conservative voices of north carolina, and kimberly marshall is a charlotte resident and runs the conservative group on facebook. what is important to you in this election? the issue that is important to me is the black agenda as well as safety, school choices and health care. and kimberly, what mattered most to you in this election? what is most important is that i fear in america, period, our liberties and freedoms are being threatened by a socialist agenda. donald trump is the person that will help keep that from happening. that was very help keep that from happening. that was very important to me. what do you worry about most about a socialist agenda ? you worry about most about a socialist agenda? to me, socialism

ta kes socialist agenda? to me, socialism takes away the incentive to be productive. it is a form of wealth redistribution. and ifeel productive. it is a form of wealth redistribution. and i feel that productive. it is a form of wealth redistribution. and ifeel that that has hurt the black community. welfare is a form of socialism, which doesn't mean there shouldn't be social safety nets, i believe in that, but the way our system is set up that, but the way our system is set up descent devises production —— d incentivises production. it has taken fathers out of homes and then you have fatherless desk. so when you have fatherless desk. so when you take away the incentive for productivity, it really does hurt the family and it hurts the community at large. what appears to you about president donald trump is a black man in america? well, he is a black man in america? well, he is a businessman. he is an opportunist.

he knows about politics and how to negotiate, but he also comes in not knowing anyone anything. as a result, you can be your own man. knowing anyone anything. as a result, you can be your own man! lot of democrats have criticised president trump for race baiting and racist dog whistles and some of the statements he makes. they say african americans, people of colour should not support him. african americans, people of colour should not support himlj african americans, people of colour should not support him. i disagree. he has done more for the black community than any president i have known in my lifetime. again, he is who he is, we can't deny that. but he is not answerable to any one group. who is winning north carolina? trump will. the polls are really tight. you think he has got it? yeah. even though charlotte is blue, the rest of the state is very red. there is a huge turnout in the rural areas. we will see what

happens. kimberly and larry, thank you. an indication of how tight this might be from the trump campaign's point of view. the president has visited that state 11 times in recent weeks. he needs to hold it. watch were they travel, it is sometimes defensive and sometimes offensive. the spin is also interesting. the republicans are sounding more confident about florida and the democrats are now sending more confident about georgia because it is looking better for them there. that is not how we would have started the night. we would have started the night. we would have thought the real problem would be florida. but there is a consolation prize. if the democrats lose florida, then georgia is not a bad consolation to have. we should keep reminding people that we have the on the day votes that might be counted very fast in some states,

and then 100 million americans voted early. a lot voted by post. it is terribly time—consuming. each ballot comes in, it has to be taken out of the envelope, sometimes a second envelope. it has to be opened up and scanned and the signatures need to be checked. you need two people because no one person is allowed to because no one person is allowed to be left alone with a ballot at any time. it can take a long time to go through all the votes that have come in by post, and that is why we might get a state looking like it's going one way and then it can change during the course of the night, which is why andrew and i are going to be here for hours and hours. and we will be careful as we call the states. so valve, we have only protected indiana. iam joined now by mary trump, psychologist and author and a relative of donald trump. welcome. we have no idea who is going to win this election, but if mrtrump

is going to win this election, but if mr trump loses clearly, there can be no doubt about it, how will he ta ke be no doubt about it, how will he take it? that is the only good scenario in this election. he will be so statistically injured by a decisive biden victory that he will have no choice but to spin it in such a way that he can save face, perhaps by saying he was the best thing that ever happened to america since he didn't win, we don't deserve him or something like that. who will he blame? everybody but himself. i would who will he blame? everybody but himself. iwould not who will he blame? everybody but himself. i would not like to be one of his closest advisers in the event that he loses. but generally, he will blame the american people. how much credence do you give to the speculation that if he loses but narrowly, and there is a difference between the people who voted on the day—to—day who vote for him and the

mailing votes that are counted later, how much credence do you put on the speculation that he may not leave the white house, he may dig in and say, i won on the day, that is the result that matters?|j and say, i won on the day, that is the result that matters? i don't know what will happen in terms of his having to leave, but he will do everything in his power in the meantime. we have 79 days to live through between the election and inauguration. he will do everything in his power to get the voting to stop and he has a lot of powerful people in his corner to help him. let's not be mistaken here. if the opposite happens and it is a close loss for him, he will want the vote to continue. if it's a close win for him, he will want the vote to stop. he has no problem with hypocrisy

here. we have to hope it's a decisive biden victory so there is no question of illegitimacy. and thenif no question of illegitimacy. and then if donald doesn't accept the results, it doesn't matter because it is not up to him. as i say, we have no idea what the result is going to be. it could be that he will be re—elected, as most sitting presidents tend to be. only two in recent times have not been. but if he has lost, what will he do for an encore? what does a post president trump do in the rest of his seventies? well, the new york attorney general in the southern district of new york will have some say in how donald spends his retirement because from what i understand, he has some potential crimes to answer for and that will be in his future. and do you think

it is possible that if he has lost, infour it is possible that if he has lost, in four years' time he could seek the republican nomination again? do you think he has now got politics in his system? the most of his life, he has not been a politician at all. do you think he will be so wounded by losing that he could well run, which he would be entitled to do under the constitution, in the 2024 election? it has happened before. i think it is extraordinarily unlikely. he would be 78 by then. there are is 78 and he may well win. ——joe biden is 78. but joe biden seems like a healthy person who takes care of himself. donald trump doesn't exercise, has a horrible dad and never sleeps so far as i can tell, based on his twitter account that mackie has a horrible diet. sol don't know if he would have the stamina andl don't know if he would have the stamina and i don't know what will go on in the next four years for

him, most of it not particularly good. so i don't know if there would be any incentive. it has been clear to me for some time now that he doesn't enjoy being in the oval office. it doesn't suit him. i think he enjoys the protection it affords him, but that's about it. mary, there are an unusual number of people who have left this administration who have written tell all books about being in the white house. you are his family member and you have also written a tell all book. in president trump's response to the people who used to work to him and to you is that they are just disgruntled people. why did you write a book about your uncle, did you just have an axe to grind, where you just have an axe to grind, where you are disgruntled member of the trump family? no, although i had a fair reason to be. but no, if that had been the case, if i had been writing this for revenge or to cash in, icould writing this for revenge or to cash in, i could have done it ten years ago when he was still quite a public

person with a very high profile, and it would have been a lot safer. i wrote this book as a concerned citizen. i knew donald was going to doa citizen. i knew donald was going to do a lot of damage to my country. but i did not anticipate that 100% of the republican party would support him at every turn it seemed like every day, things were getting worse and i felt it was my responsibility to help the american people understand who he was, how he came to be this way and what we could anticipate in the future and give them information they did not have in 2016 so nobody could go into the voting booth today and pretend they don't know who donald trump is. mary trump, thank you for being on this bbc us election special. my pleasure. let's get more from christian fraser, who was at the touchscreen. he even has a few results to plug in for us.|j touchscreen. he even has a few results to plug in for us. i have some colour on my map. for those of

you who are not familiar with the electra college, this is to show you how it works. indiana has been called and projected for donald trump. so 11 electoral college votes go into his column. that is the numberone of go into his column. that is the number one of these men has to get to, 270 or more gives you the keys to, 270 or more gives you the keys to the white house. i want to show you some interesting things. we have been talking about the changing face of america. virginia was the quintessential bellwether state, but these days it is much more in the democrat column. it has been getting more and more democratic since 2008. i want to talk about absentee voting because in this state, you will see over half of the vote was early and it skews heavily towards the democrats. so you are going to see joe biden's leader start to extend over donald trump here and there is every over donald trump here and there is eve ry reason, over donald trump here and there is every reason, looking at the pre—election poll and that figure, to suggest that tonight, virginia is going even more democrat than it was

under hillary clinton. let's talk about georgia. they mirror each other in so many ways, as katty said. there is an important figure to show you. through the course of the evening, you might get donald trump going more into the lead as the in—person vote is counted. georgia has already said it will probably take two days to count the ballots that came in early mother mail—in ballots. but look how much of it was early ballots, 78% of it. this is why andrew was saying the democrats are feeling good about georgia. this is why, because when you look at how this is skewed towards joe you look at how this is skewed towardsjoe biden, you look at how this is skewed towards joe biden, as you look at how this is skewed towardsjoe biden, as that is counted over the next day, you are going to start seeing joe biden catching up with donald trump in the poll. there is some other information i want to show you here as well. we have already talked about indiana. important senate race

there tonight. mitch mcconnell is up for re—election but those three are ru by for re—election but those three are ruby red. i am also seeing some data i can't show you yet because there are polls which are still open for another half— hour florida, but are polls which are still open for another half—hour florida, but some of them closed at seven o'clock eastern. they have already counted 5196 eastern. they have already counted 51% of the vote in florida. that enormous early vote in florida, and ican enormous early vote in florida, and i can tell you it is on a knife edge. it is neck and neck, with half of that ballot already counted. i can't wait to get more on florida, it's the one state i'm getting m essa g es it's the one state i'm getting messages close to the trump campaign and they are telling me they feel very bullish about florida on the republican side so let's see when we can dig more into the numbers after the polls close. indeed, the republicans are getting a bit excited about it. i think partly because they think they've done

better—than—expected in dade county, which is the miami area that's normally democratic territory so for them to do well there means they think they are in with a chance, but it's a very diverse state and penn ellis, another county which you might have expected to get republican, mr biden has been doing well, so as always with florida until you've counted the south and the middle, the tampa bay corridor and so on, you can't be sure what the result is. but we are across it. somebody once described florida to me as alabama in the north, new jersey in the south and alabama across the middle, it is that different. a bit of cuba in the south as well. a little bit of sulphur. we are across it and we will bring the projection the moment we feel we are able to do so, but not before. let's get the latest news with tina daheley. thank you. counting in the us presidential election is under way in several southern, midwestern and eastern

states, as people choose between the incumbent, donald trump, and his democratic rival, joe biden. so far, president trump is projected to win indiana, a traditional republican state. other states are still too close to call. after criss—crossing the country in the last few days, the president is back in washington and will watch the results come in at the white house. earlier, he said winning was easy but losing was not, whilejoe biden has pledged to restore what he called decency and honour to the white house. will grant reports. billions of dollars spent, months of campaigning, and almost 100 million votes cast before polling day itself. this has been a race to the white house like no other, all at the of it against a backdrop of a global pandemic that has claimed 230,000 american lives. for some, election day has been a chance to pause, to reflect. suddenly president trump's challenger has prevented this vote as a referendum

on the unpredictable presidency, on the four years of deep polarisation and division. joe biden, often mocked by the president for his advanced age, made his final call for votes from his childhood home in the crucial battle ground pennsylvania. the state of pennsylvania. cheering president trump's path to victory is narrow, narrower even than in his unlikely win four years ago, but he has upset the odds in the past and insists he hasn't prepared a speech eitherfor insists he hasn't prepared a speech either for victory insists he hasn't prepared a speech eitherfor victory or insists he hasn't prepared a speech either for victory or defeat. winning is easy, losing is never easy, not for me, it's not. so it all boils down to these coming few hours and the question which the united states, indeed, the entire world watching on, is asking. have the american people opted for four more yea rs the american people opted for four more years of donald trump, or consigned him to becoming the first

one term president since george bush senior? will grant, bbc news, washington. americans are also casting ballots for seats in the us congress and are choosing new governors in 11 states. most eyes are on the third of seats up for grabs in the senate. opinion polls suggest the democrats have a chance of capturing the upper house after six years of republican majorities. if they do, it would help mr biden's legislative programme were he to win the presidency, and hinder mr trump's plans if he gets a second term. the house of representatives is expected to stay under democratic control. in other news, the government of austria has confirmed the attack in vienna was carried out byjust one gunman. he's been identified as a 20—year—old son of migrants, with dual nationality, who had previously been jailed for trying tojoin a jihadist group in syria. four people died after he opened fire on monday evening. an elderly man and woman, a young male passer—by and a waitress, while another 22

people were wounded. police have since carried out a series of raids and made 14 arrests. argentine football legend diego maradona is to have "routine surgery" for bleeding around the brain, caused by a head injury — in the next few hours. the 1986 world cup winner, 60, was admitted to ipensa clinic in buenos aires on monday, suffering from anaemia and dehydration. and here he is being transferred to the olivos clinic in la plata, where the operation will take place. doctors say they expect him to make a full recovery. the government of poland has delayed bringing in a ban on abortion in almost all circumstances. it comes following two weeks of mass protests since the high court ruled that terminations due to defects in the foetus were illegal. a government spokesman said there was a need for peace, and more discussion around the judgment. hurricane eta has lashed nicaragua and honduras, leaving widespread damage in its wake.

the category 4 storm, with winds gusting at 140 miles per hour — that's 225 kilometres per hour — has caused several buildings to collapse. there are warnings of life—threatening storm surges, flash flooding and landslides. there is of course much more bbc news online and on your mobile. you can use our live results map to see all the votes in every us state as they come in. that's on our website or the bbc news app. that is the latest bbc news. now back to us 2020. its just passed 7:30pm on the east coast of the united states. at 8pm we will get quite a lot more states that close their polls, then we'll be able to get a few more results

coming in, we hope, as well but let's ta ke coming in, we hope, as well but let's take a quick look at where we are so faron let's take a quick look at where we are so far on that move towards 270. remember, they need remember, they are so far on that move towards 270. remember, they need 270 to win the white house. donald trump has 11, that's 11 electoral college votes that's 11 electoral college votes that he's scored with wins in indiana and kentucky, joe biden so far has zero, the night is very young. don't read anything too much into that, we will start filling that in as the hours rolled by and eventually one of them we hope tonight while we are unable get to 270, but we can't promise you that because of this tonight while we are unable get to 270, but we can't promise you that because of this extraordinary election when some of the votes were cast today on polling day but lots more, 100 million, were cast early, either in person or by post, and all of those have to be counted as well and it's terribly complicated. some of the counts, some of the states count them today, some of them have been counting them for weeks, and some of the start counting them tomorrow. it couldn't get more complicated. not if you tried to

make it so and sometimes i think they've intentionally tried to make it so. i blame the constitution, i know you are not meant to do that and talk about the constitution, but the constitution gave the states to put the power to set the election rules and that's why we've got so many different election rules. there is one state that i currently forget that has 1600 different counting areas and 1600 differently designed ballots throughout the state. it mean if you wanted to make it more complicated you would struggle to do that. the early results, we projected indiana, no surprise, for mrtrump. projected indiana, no surprise, for mr trump. others are projecting kentucky for mr trump, it would be in real trouble if he didn't win that, and vermont has been projected for that, and vermont has been projected foer that, and vermont has been projected for mr biden, that, and vermont has been projected foer biden, again, that, and vermont has been projected for mr biden, again, no surprise there in any of these, mr biden taking vermont, the home state of bernie sanders. 65% of the vote counted in florida, mr biden isjust

a little ahead at 50.4, trump at 48.7, but as you are saying, katty, as you move further north as the votes get counted it becomes more republican which is why the republicans still think this is their state, but it won't be until their state, but it won't be until the votes are counted. now, a state that mr trump won quite comfortably in 2016 was ohio, one of these other midwestern rust belt states. this time it's still been leaning towards mrtrump, but it time it's still been leaning towards mr trump, but it is in contention, so let's to anna foster. she is in clevela nd, so let's to anna foster. she is in cleveland, ohio. this is the bellwether state, andrew. it's predicted every president correctly since 1964, and here is something the republican campaign will really be focusing on tonight. no republican has ever won the white house without winning ohio. that's not to say it can't be done, but it means if donald trump manages that he will be rewriting history at the

same time. this was comfortably won by donald trump last time round and an 8% victory, around 445,000 votes. the states to really look at tonight when you drill into it and look at the different counties, i'm in cleveland, solidly democratic. what joe biden needs to do here is really build on that, he needs to pick up some of the votes hillary clinton lost here in 2016, but it's worth watching places like stark county in east ohio, where back in 2016 donald trump turned a not .5% loss into a 17% victory, so seat these are some of the areas that we will be focusing on in the next few hours. you mentioned the 100,000 votes which have already been cast, some of them are behind me here in these blue bags, arranged upon the shelves here stop ohio is fortunate to be one of those states that's allowed to start looking at them in advance. these have all been scanned, they've all been loaded into the computer, and in around 15 minutes' time the first results will start to come

through and they will be looked at very carefully by both campaigns, no doubt. ok, anna foster there. i love all those blue bags behind her at the polling station, there's been a lot of criticism over the course of this year, andrew, about the polling service, the posting service in america because at one point it was chronically slow. i would send a letter or parcel to my daughter in chicago, it could take ten days to get there so everyone was saying the postal service isn't up to it, we are ina postal service isn't up to it, we are in a pandemic, the postal service has to be quicker and the postal service said we can handle this fine, we can handle christmas every year, so let's see there have been concerns in the last few days. even today that was a ruling by a judge that some of the polling stations, the posting stations that we re stations, the posting stations that were post offices performing badly, they had to tighten up their act and get better by the end of polling times today so the postal service under a bit of scrutiny at the moment. let's talk again to mary

anne marsh, democratic political strategist in massachusetts, bryan la nza, strategist in massachusetts, bryan lanza, who worked with donald trump on his campaign in 2016 also with us. mary anne, let me start with you, iam us. mary anne, let me start with you, i am sure you are getting m essa g es you, i am sure you are getting messages from the campaign as we have been on air. what are you watching? what are you seeing? what should we be focused on at this stage in the evening?” should we be focused on at this stage in the evening? i think in many ways unless we get a surprise out of georgia, which looks like their results are going to be delayed because of a water main break somewhere, or arizona, something like that, we may be in for more of a traditional evening that we might have thought otherwise. i think when you look at the country... what do you mean by that? well, so the easiest route for joe biden is to hold out and christian said this earlier in the evening, to hold all the hillary clinton states and add one point to wisconsin, michigan and

pennsylvania. that is the easiest route for joe biden. pennsylvania. that is the easiest route forjoe biden. there are a bunch of other combinations that he could do versus donald trump, which is won and done, he loses any of the south—west states or he has to win one of those in michigan and wisconsin look like they'll go to biden in my estimation, so it could be several days when we look at the states that really matter here, so for all the talk of winning it georgia may be, ora for all the talk of winning it georgia may be, or a texas, for all the talk of winning it georgia may be, ora texas, georgia is still sitting there, i don't know about texas but everyone is going to be looking at north carolina in the hours to come, east coast, that will bea hours to come, east coast, that will be a big deal. that's a state that donald trump is to win so that's what you are starting to see, versus a big new different map. bryan la nza, a big new different map. bryan lanza, former adviser to president trump, in alexandria, virginia. if you are on the defensive in georgia, i don't say you've lost it but it's clearly in contention and virginia is now pretty much in the blue

corner, it used to be in your corner, it used to be in your corner, not now, north carolina seems to be in contention too, what does that say for the republican southern strategy? you are losing all struggling to hold onto states that you used to be able to count on as night follows day?” that you used to be able to count on as night follows day? i mean, it's not richard nixon popp republican party a ny not richard nixon popp republican party any more, that's for sure. the dynamic of georgia coming into play provides a lot of challenges for the trump campaign, in for them to win they make of the georgia ground. the easiest place is probably going to be either wisconsin or michigan, i think michigan is out of reach, i think michigan is out of reach, i think wisconsin is probably in play, but it's probably leading towards biden so they need a huge surge. florida is going to go trump, north carolina to jump florida is going to go trump, north carolina tojump on, for trump to get their has a very thin line he has to follow and he has to be error free through most of the night and the first threshold was florida. it looks like they are going to hit

that. there's going to be a hiccup in georgia but they can make it up in wisconsin but north carolina is critical in the next couple of hours, it's either going to be a long night forjoe biden or a short night for donald trump. does it not trouble you as a republican strategist that america is becoming younger, more diverse, more college educated, and your party has real trouble with young votes, you don't get them, ronald reagan got a majority of the under 30s in 1984, you have a real trouble with non—white votes as well, and you have real trouble with college educated. in other words, the direction the country is going in is exactly the opposite of the direction the republican party stands for. the party has to adapt. they have to have more diversity in the party. i met and that he knew american. —— i

myself am a latina american. as they adapt the message, they will be able to deliver that message. i am now here on the bbc, which was not the case ten to 15 years ago. so the party is adapting and delivering the right messengers. why would you not have been on the bbc 15 years ago? asa have been on the bbc 15 years ago? as a latino republican, there were not as many of us out there. now it is different. now you see more african and latinos carrying the republican banner. we have a larger candidate pool to appear.” republican banner. we have a larger candidate poolto appear. ijust wa nted candidate poolto appear. ijust wanted to check that it was your fault and not our fault. default is mine. 15 years ago, we would have been delighted to have you. marianne and brian, let's leave it for the moment but we know you are not going away. katty, we can now project.

vermont is projected forjoe biden. only three electoral college seats in the mountain state. it was always going to be for mr biden. he has won co mforta bly. going to be for mr biden. he has won comfortably. this is a fund slide to look at because it is only 5% of the vote counted and yet we are still projected forjoe biden. some viewers might say, how are you calling it, that seems reckless. but it is because we know vermont is heavily democrat. it went for hillary clinton and barack obama. also, you might want to know where those votes are if they are coming from big populated areas, they would suggest how the rest of the state is going to go. anyway, vermont has been called for those three electoral college votes to joe biden. that speak to martin luther king iii, human rights advocate in atla nta, king iii, human rights advocate in atlanta, georgia, the son of dr martin luther king. during the

course of this year, several things have dominated the headlines in the united states. there has of course been the coronavirus. there has been a collapse in the economy, there have been fires in california, but there has also been, throughout the course of this year, after the killing of george floyd, racial protests, some rioting and looting, but a lot of focus on race and police brutality in the united states. how much has that been a factor on people's mines as they went to the polls today?” factor on people's mines as they went to the polls today? i certainly think that is a huge issue, certainly in the black community and communities of colour. but if you look at all the demonstrations around the nation and the world that occurred after george floyd, it clearly says that this issue is important to many americans, i would say most, frankly. the issue that may end up being the most important

is what the pandemic is doing to our nation and the world, what will happen to the economy. but right behind that is racial reconciliation. i think people want to see racial reconciliation. given that, if this evening we don't see a large turnout amongst african—americans, would large turnout amongst african—america ns, would you large turnout amongst african—americans, would you feel disappointed that we went through that moment in america where everybody seems to be caught up in the focus on police brutality towards african—america ns, particularly african—american men, would you expect them to turn out and if they don't, will you be disappointed? when you speak of african—american men, i think it is clear that there has been some concern about participation levels. but i think that african—american

women overwhelmingly would have shown participation. and i think african—american men will not be too far behind. could there have been more? we will have to evaluate that. lam certainly more? we will have to evaluate that. i am certainly disappointed a lot in the leadership of president trump, or some would say the lack of leadership, whether it's a randy pandemic, the issue of climate control —— pandemic, the issue of climate control — — whether pandemic, the issue of climate control —— whether it is around acknowledging that science exists. those things have been disappointing. and yet mr trump has made a big effort to try to reach african—american men in particular. this is a voting group that he has made a point of courting notjust during this campaign, but during his presidency as well. i missed your question. mr trump has been reaching out to african—american men. do you think we could see a swing amongst

african—american male voters towards donald trump compared to last time? i don't think you are going to see a significant swing. yes, he has been courting african and there is a population of conservative african—americans who are certainly going to support president trump. there may be a few points, but i think overwhelmingly, african—americans and men will support the biden harris ticket.” just want to bring up a poll which asks if the justice system treats people fairly. this is a change from last time,

more people think black people are treated unfairly in the united states. do you think the issue of black lives matter could have an impact amongst white voters? do you think more white voters than last time might say this matters to them too? absolutely. that may be one of the factors. again, if the biden harris ticket is successful, that is one of the factors that made it successful, because you saw so many young white people voting who are supporting the biden harris ticket. when i was covering those protests, one of the things that civil rights leaders said to me was that it was so different this time around because there were a lot of white people taking part in those protests. but what doesn't seem to have happened in this election is that the emphasis on racial equality in the country hasn't increased.

look at this exit poll. there is no difference in the turnout of black men and black women. to get back to what we were saying, the black lives matter movement has not got like men and black women to the polls in greater numbers than in 2016. you are using exit polling, i assume. yes. i think we have to wait and see the numbers. polling is not always correct. we will have to wait until the end of the day to see. i also believe that when you add all of the other dynamics, like seniors, some have left president trump. when you add suburban women, some have left president trump. if you add all of this coalition together, it perhaps will create a victory forjoe biden and kamala harris. mr martin luther

king, thank you forjoining us from atla nta, king, thank you forjoining us from atlanta, georgia, a state we are focusing a lot on tonight. although there has been a bit of a hitch over there. it was mentioned earlier with one of our guests. there has been a burst water pipe. who would have thought something so mundane would get in the way of american democracy, but it is delaying the final count in one of the key counties, part of atlanta. a tenth of all georgians live there and it looks like the count is being delayed because a water pipe burst. but officials say the good news is that no ballots were damaged. i am sure that will not stop the lawyers beginning to slavery at the prospect. that is the second hitch of the day because in north carolina, we should have already brought you the polls closing over there. they were meant to close at 7.30 on the east coast, but because some polls opened late, and i'm not sure why that was, they have had to

add another 45 minutes to their polling time, which means we couldn't bring you north carolina closing a few minutes ago. 8196 of the vote has been counted in florida. joe biden is now on 49%. 82% of the vote has now been counted, it is rising as i speak. donald trump is on 50%, joe biden on 49. the new york times is now giving donald trump a 95% chance of winning florida. they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't think it was true, so it does seem to be moving his way. but to remind you, winning florida is not enough for mr trump to remain in the white house. he needs to win it, but that alone does not guarantee that he stays in the white house. what would be a big help would be to in florida and pennsylvania, but we don't know

about that yet. michelle fleury is in philadelphia. let's go to her.” am here with rebecca and kevin belmont, two republican voters who have come from just outside philadelphia. so much has been made this election about suburban women vote rs this election about suburban women voters who may be key for biden, perhaps clawing back the state from donald trump, who won it in 2016 by the slimmest of margins. what is it about him that has you backing him? the main reason i am backing him is for his policies. the economy has been so much better during the trump administration versus the obama administration, and i fear i biden administration, and i fear i biden administration would be the same as the obama. the first election, i voted for him as well. and the reasons we re a voted for him as well. and the reasons were a bit different. i

thought we could use a strong businessman to run the country. i actually voted for ross perot in the early 90s, who was also a businessman but didn't make the cut. sol businessman but didn't make the cut. so i have always had that thought process for an outsider. you said in 2016, you are more of a silent trump voter. yes, i did not tell anybody. but this year, you got together women in your area or a woman for top micro—sign. women in your area or a woman for top micro-sign. yes, i had already planned on voting for trump again and my bottom line was better for it. when the whispers down the line of socialism started to come in and get a little louder, i started to fear that we were losing our country, our freedoms and the

american dream. kevin, what is your top issue this election? well, the economy is pretty big. the democrats make a big deal of the coronavirus. what he has done, not being a doctor listening to the scientists as it evolves, so did his story evolve on how we were going to handle it. but the economy, how it has rebounded, our businesses have not suffered so bad. kevin and rebecca, thank you. the polls close shortly here in pennsylvania, but mail—in ballots will not start counting until later this evening. it will be days before we get any results from here. thank you for that. katty, every time i look at the results screen here, there is another percentage point inside of the votes being counted. it has just moved again. by 50%, trump 49. trump 50%, biden 49.

it has just moved again. by 50%, trump 49. trump 5096, biden 49. this is why we can't give you the results yet. at the top of the hour, 16 more states will have their polls closing, so hopefully we will learn some more. it is 8pm on the east coast of the united states and we do have 16 more states where the polls will be closing. that means we will have 16 more states where we will start to get the results coming in, and some of those states are the big ones, those battle ground states. they include florida, pennsylvania. we hope we may get some of those results from pennsylvania quickly and florida quickly, because they have been counting those early mail—in votes for weeks now, so they should be well versed at this. also, florida, interestingly, they have a history of voting by mail and voting early. and you know why, andrew?”

don't know. because of hurricanes. we talk about what domain bursting up we talk about what domain bursting up they voted early because of hurricanes. so everybody is used to it and they have a very well oiled machine in terms of early vote counting. maybe not in 2000, but they have this time. let's see what we can get out of this. new hampshire, pennsylvania, maine, delaware, connecticut and new jersey. newjersey delaware, connecticut and new jersey. new jersey is delaware, connecticut and new jersey. newjersey is too early to project. i think we can put newjersey in the biden @ not a shocker. massachusetts as well, 11 electoral college votes and newjersey, we will put that in the biden column as well but again, and oklahoma coming up too, and oklahoma we are putting ruby red, it is staying with donald trump. and what this means is that so far we

still do not have a state that has changed from one to the other, and thatis changed from one to the other, and that is what we are really waiting for. so let's look at what this means for the electoral college so far with the results in. as cat he was saying, no battle ground state has changed hands and every result so far has been relatively pretty much predictable. it givesjoe biden 44 electoral college votes, mr trump has 26 electoral college votes, as things stand stop one needs 270 to win here and we are obviously a long way off my coat way off my win here and we are obviously a long way off my coat that and florida needs to be resolved before we then start moving north, katty, to these rust belt states, as we call them, which were the key to mr trump's victory last time round, but we —— wearing some of them he seems to be ina bit wearing some of them he seems to be in a bit more trouble, katty? let's try and get more from florida, because, as you say, that's key for

donald trump. he's not going to win the white house unless a miracle happened and he swept away a whole lot of other democratic states but he's not going to win the white house have left the winds florida. the polls have closed there. christian at the bbc big board, what do you have for us at the touch—screen? do you have for us at the touch-screen? i've been trying to pay attention to you and andrew but this has been taking my attention for the last half an hour. when i put this up literally about ten seconds ago donald trump had a lead in the vote of about 11,000 votes and suddenly i'm looking at my screen here, biden has a lead of 24,000 votes, it's literally back and forwards. why is it changing? well, i want to show you this, i talked about this earlier in the evening, that's a huge early ballot. in fact there are around 2 million more votes in florida this time than they were in 2016, and three quarters of the ballot was early and it skewed heavily towards the democrats and that was tipped into the voting machines right at the

beginning of the night, sojoe biden had a lead in the poll earlier on what they are counting now with that bigger turnout is the in—person votes, and that is why it's so close, because we know in republican counties in florida there's been very good turnout, the president talked about it today, so i think we are going to see this back and forth, all the way through the course of the next hour, 84% of the vote counted so far. i also want to talk about ohio, because this is really interesting as well. it gives you an impression of the other way around. in ohio, in fact, this is what i was talking about a minute ago in florida, that when you tip into the voting machines, the early ballot, which you can see in ohio skews heavily towards biden, you will see that there, 45%, ten points towards biden, they counted that first and that's why you see in a normally republican state biden with a19

normally republican state biden with a 19 point lead. now they are going to stop counting the in—person votes and what you think i'm a 30% counted so far is donald trump catching up in ohio. turn out really important to ohio, about a million more people. however, i'm looking at the exit polls for ohio, remember, trump won it by eight points in 2016. it's narrower this time. the gamble that democrats took in the primary season when they chose an elderly man like joe biden, someone who could talk to blue—collar workers in the midwest, was could he get white men to vote for him? and in ohio, looking at the exit polls, he has got 8% more white men voting for him than voted for hillary clinton. that's not to say that he's got white men overall voting for him in ohio, this is a writer, older state, but he is doing better than hillary clinton and that could be key for him of course when we start talking about these other midwest states, pennsylvania,

michigan and wisconsin. remember, the president only won by 34,000 votes, 11,000 in which you 20,000 in wisconsin, so he doesn't have to do a great deal, joe biden, with the white men, just get more than hillary clinton got and that could be enough for him in those crucial battle ground states. christian, bring up mitch higuain and see what's going on there because that isa what's going on there because that is a state where there's been quite a lot of discussion about when they could start counting and lawyers have got involved in that already over the course of the past few months. what is going on in mitch higuain? this is average polling because as you were saying earlier until we get 5% of the vote counted we don't get a vote share on the screen so i can't tell you an awful lot about that at the moment, we will get that in the next few minutes. the thing to lot about that at the moment, we will get that in the next few minutes. the thing to say about mitch higuain was that back in 2016 a quarter of mitch higuain was that back in 2016 a quarterofa mitch higuain was that back in 2016 a quarter of a million people voted for a third party candidate and what was really obvious around detroit, around wayne county, was that hillary clinton wasn't getting people out as barack obama had got

people out as barack obama had got people out. i'm looking at the exit poll here, a million more people have voted in mitch higuain, and if that white man syndrome we were just talking about in ohio rents true through michigan that is why you are going to see i think positive numbers for joe biden going to see i think positive numbers forjoe biden which reflected in the average polljust before the election day. if it's like that then i thinkjoe biden will feel very confident about wisconsin and michigan. ok, christian, thank you, it's interesting that white male vote issue was always the theory of the case of the biden campaign. there he was, remember back in the democratic primaries at a time we could travel to primaries and all be together and there were dozens of people upon the stage and there were people of all ethnicities and younger people and people far to the left ofjoe biden. it wasn't the most popular candidate, had a terrible time in the iowa caucuses, had a bad time in new hampshire, i rememberstanding with one of his top advisers at a

new hampshire rally and it felt like a weight for his political career, then he was saved in south korea and became the candidate and stuck to the same message, i am the candidate who is the centrist, i can peel away some of the white working class male voters who switch for the democratic party to donald trump and he basically made that his campaign and he didn't really change the whole course of the year. that has been the joe course of the year. that has been thejoe biden course of the year. that has been the joe biden model, course of the year. that has been thejoe biden model, it's been interesting to see tonight whether that pays off for him. he seems to be doing well among white voters but doesn't seem to have done so well among hispanic voters in florida, which is why mr trump is marginally ahead. republicans are indicating they are getting ready to call the state for donald trump, but there isn't much in it so they had better be careful before they do. let's speak to francis suarez, the mayor of miami, the biggest town in the state and the core of dade county where so many votes are there in florida. why is mr biden underperformed among hispanic voters

in your state? it's pretty clear that the argument against socialism is one that has taken hold and has been influential. you have to understand that hillary clinton won miami—dade county by 30 points. right now as it stands early voting and absentees and being counted, right now is about eight point margin, donald trump is only losing dade county by about eight points and in the state of florida where previously donald trump won by 100,000 votes he has ended the day to day in voting with about 190,000 vote margin state white so he has to do very well to win florida with the independence and that will be the determining factor as to whether or not he wins florida. are you saying that it's the composition of florida's hispanic population, whereas other states like texas or arizona are overwhelmingly the hist ivanic —— the hispanic population is

mexican—american, in florida and cuban—american american, nicaraguan american, colombian american and because these are people who may often have fled or left socialist countries that makes them more republican. is that your argument? that's exactly what's happening. you have three of the four of the nationalities you mentioned were former, people who came or fled from a communist country, so cubans of course, nicaraguan sun venezuelans, so particularly the new arrivals are from those countries, are definitely trending republican. we've seen that in the vote, in the turnout, so that is certainly a reason why he is over performing significantly in dade cou nty performing significantly in dade county by a 20 point margin and if he wins florida it could be because of miami—dade county. he wins florida it could be because of miami-dade county. other indications mr trump hasn't done as well as last time among seniors? you have plenty of seniors in florida as well as plenty of hispanics. they

we re well as plenty of hispanics. they were uncomfortable, unhappy, at the way he has handled covid, and he hasn't got a good turnout among them as he did four years ago?” hasn't got a good turnout among them as he did four years ago? i think that's true. i think the fact he has been criticised heavily and made a lot of decisions that people have not particularly like some covid, certainly hasn't helped him among those populations. ithink certainly hasn't helped him among those populations. i think what they call the quarter of tampa which went for obama call the quarter of tampa which went forobama in call the quarter of tampa which went for obama in 2008 and trump in 2016 could also be decisive so i think if you are looking at florida used to be looking at orlando and tampa, particularly pinellas county which has a tendency to choose the winner in florida historically and also the performance of miami—dade county. i think it will be close but if he does win florida it could be because of those areas. your states also had an influx because of the hurricane of puerto rican is that you mentioned, the tampa corridor up there, i think a lot of them have settled on the i4 corridor. have

they tended to vote for mr biden? yes, i would say they are heavily democrat, you have two antagonistic forces, you have the i4 quarter, heavily voting for joe forces, you have the i4 quarter, heavily voting forjoe biden and you have a lot of venezuelans and new arrival cubans have a lot of venezuelans and new arrival cu bans that republicans have a lot of venezuelans and new arrival cubans that republicans also register i think a million more people over the course of this year, so you also have all that sort of coming together and again, in dade cou nty coming together and again, in dade county there is a lot more republicans voting. i don't know how that's going to play against other parts of the state and we will find out shortly. can you say hand on heart donald trump has been good for hispanics in your city? well, look, i think he's spoken to some other issues that they care about and i think that's why he's getting that support. again, hispanics down here have fled socialist and they are traumatised by that. they have lost everything they had all a great

example was the second wealthiest country in the world and 90% of the people live in poverty so cuba, the same, so what's happened is that message, particularly, has resonated and we are also seeing the republicans over performing as well. mr mayor of republicans over performing as well. mrmayor of miami, thank republicans over performing as well. mr mayor of miami, thank you for joining us on the bbc on this very special election night. i'll turn now to see 90% of the vote in florida has been counted, katty, and donald trump is one percentage point ahead. that's it, it's donald trump is one percentage point ahead. that's it, its 34,000 votes so far. i think this is what we could call a knife edge.” so far. i think this is what we could call a knife edge. i reminded you, didn't i, at the beginning of this, back in 2000, how many votes was it? it was 537, that separated the two candidates, so i hope we are not in for that kind of recount but iam not in for that kind of recount but i am looking at miami—dade county

where 86% of the vote has been counted, biden is ahead, 54—45, but hillary clinton won miami—dade by 30 percentage points, biden less than ten percentage points ahead. that's getting super granular but it's worth keeping an eye on because those are the kinds of places that will decide where florida goes. we have a few more projections we can give you, none of them are what we would not expect. tennessee has gone to mrtrump, oklahoma, would not expect. tennessee has gone to mr trump, oklahoma, new would not expect. tennessee has gone to mrtrump, oklahoma, newjersey, massachusetts, maryland, washington, dc and delaware, all stay in the democratic column so let's go to delaware because it isjoe biden's home state at the moment. chris combs is the democratic senator for delaware, in wilmington. thank you very much forjoining us. you are very much forjoining us. you are very close to joe very much forjoining us. you are very close tojoe biden, you and joe biden have shared the train to washington, dc more times than i'm

sure you can count. what are you hearing from the campaign? what are they feeling about the numbers they are seeing tonight? optimism. i am hopeful that if every vote that has been cast discounted that joe hopeful that if every vote that has been cast discounted thatjoe biden and kamala harris will be the next president and vice president. we've had a record turnout both in terms of early voting in person and by mail, more than 100 million, and the reports coming in across the country tonight are quite encouraging, but i will remind you here in the united states our elections are called not by candidates but by states and counties, and we've got a long way to go yet until every vote is counted over the next couple of days. senator, you're up against a president who was impeached, against a president who has stoked emotions on the left that i have never seen in this country in the modern era, whose reputation around the world has diminished america's reputation around the world. if you look at

justin black and white on the sheet, it shouldn't even be close, yet it is. is biden not the right candidate, are democrats not offering the right message? why is it as close as it is? i thinkjoe biden is exactly the right candidate for this moment in our nation's history and i'm optimistic that this election will prove that out. donald trump has misled as in his response to the pandemic. he has divided as by his view, his approach to the american people, where he sees a division he cracked it open even wider for his own benefit and his bungled mishandling of the pandemic has made the recession worse and longer than it should have been. joe biden who by his personal experience, his character, his dedication to bringing people together, is the right candidate for the democratic party at this moment and the results tonight will show that.

if not for the pandemic, donald trump may well have won real action and he may win it anyway. what would joe biden actually do differently? he's not going to be able to become elected and then wish the pandemic away. i fear the senator is not hearing us. we will try and come back to you. i apologise for that. it is worth pointing out that he is one of the people whose name is being mentioned as a potential secretary of state ifjoe biden wins. but it is that question you had earlier in the evening, andrew. you look at all of the reason that donald trump should perhaps not be re—elected, the fact that he got impeached, the economy has crashed, more than 200,000 americans are dead from this pandemic, the polls show america's standing in the world has declined, and yet we are clearly looking at a tight race tonight. declined, and yet we are clearly looking at a tight race tonightm does puzzle me where the democrats

find it such an uphill struggle, because when you look at the trends in america, it should be going their way. it is a younger and better educated country, a less white country than before. 5 million people, white people who voted for donald trump in 2016, are dead, so they won't be voting again. it's also a president who has not made much attempt during his presidency to reach out to those people. he has continuously appealed to the base of his party. you do it during his campaign. i don't think anyone in the republican campaign would deny that his focus is on that base of people. he has not been particularly interested in expanding beyond that, which has perhaps been a problem for him. there are 5 million fewer people even than just four years ago in america without college degrees. they tend to vote for mr trump, so

there are 5 million fewer. there are 13 million more minorities and white americans with college degrees. they tend to vote democrat, and yet here we are, katty, still looking at something of a struggle. the democrats are still not able to get florida. we don't know yet, but even if they do, it's a struggle. and there are other states where it is unclear what's going to happen. and one of the exit polls we had earlier said the economy has been an important issue for voters and where does donald trump do well? he does well on the economy. i suppose a lot of people watching from abroad will wonder, it is still a relatively young country, why has it got two old white men in their seventies as

the choice for the american people for a country where half the people in georgia are voting who are under the age of 40's the hispanics and the age of 40's the hispanics and the asian—americans are going quickly, and yet even if it hadn't beenjoe biden, quickly, and yet even if it hadn't been joe biden, one quickly, and yet even if it hadn't beenjoe biden, one of the alternatives was bernie sanders for the democrats. he is in his seventies. elizabeth warren is in her 70s as well. people are puzzled that this is the choice that america ended up with. ifjoe biden is the next president, he will be the old est next president, he will be the oldest president ever to enter the white house at the age of 78. one of the states that is in contention around the great lakes is wisconsin. yalda hakim is in the city of milwaukee. as you have been

reporting, a record 100 million people have voted in this election either by mail—in or early voting. almost 2 million of those were cast here in wisconsin and officials here have been counting those votes. they started at 7am and we are being told that that will continue through the night. whatever results we now see coming in from on the day voting that has taken place today could be slightly misleading because those 1.9 million votes remain in the wings. donald trump won this state with a narrow lead, just 23,000 votes, less than one percentage point, in 2016. a part of his story here in wisconsin and within much of the midwest is the noncollege educated white voter. i travelled up to rural wisconsin, where we met many people who say they will

continue to support donald trump. so it's a mixed picture across wisconsin. with me isjesse, the opinion editor at the capital times. asi opinion editor at the capital times. as i was saying, the working class voter here in wisconsin is very much pa rt of voter here in wisconsin is very much part of donald trump's story. that is true. we have seen a real cementing of the real urban versus rural divide and a focus on the rural divide and a focus on the rural areas of our back, who feel the government has not served them well in the past, whether that is here or in washington, dc. donald trump tapped into that. one difference between 2016 and 2020 is that hillary clinton is a candidate was not necessarily skilled at speaking with blue—collar voters. that is something that joe speaking with blue—collar voters. that is something thatjoe biden can do well, so that could change things. but as you said, a lot of vote rs things. but as you said, a lot of voters who supported trump last time, despite things like trade

policies and tariffs that may have heard things for them a bit, they still want to support him. what about the virus? wisconsin is one of the worst affected states in the country. it is. it has played a huge role. we have seen an overwhelming majority of disapproval of the way donald trump has handled the virus here. we had a record number of new cases between yesterday and today in wisconsin. it was almost 6000 new cases, 52 deaths yesterday. and that has been the trend lately. there was some of that at state level, but at the end of the day people look at the end of the day people look at the top to see how it was handled and we think it was in the high 60s in terms of disapproval of how the president handled it. what breaks up the metropolitan urban areas and the rural areas? obviously, the liberal strongholds are milwaukee and

madison, the two largest cities in the state. there are a lot of mid—sized communities in the 70,000 population range that swing a bit more. the suburbs around milwaukee are known to be a conservative stronghold but by ship population, they do turn out a lot of democrat vote rs they do turn out a lot of democrat voters as well. there are a handful of counties which are rural that sometimes go blue. the polls here showjoe biden sometimes go blue. the polls here show joe biden leading, sometimes go blue. the polls here showjoe biden leading, so it will be interesting. in 2016, the polls showed hillary clinton ahead too, so i don't think any democrats are counting their chickens before they hatch. they are not confident yet, but they are in a solid place. we know wisconsin has been one of the states that is important to donald trump and he obviously thought it was winnable on some level because he has visited four times in the

la st he has visited four times in the last week. that's right. earlier when he pulled out some of those advertising dollars, people saw it asa sign advertising dollars, people saw it as a sign that he was giving up on wisconsin, which has not been the case. he has been back. it is easier for him to get the media and not spend those ad dollars, because he packs in crowds. the fact that he was able to flip the state for the first time in 30 years in 2016, he is going to want to do that again, not to mention the electoral votes which will be crucial to him winning. thank you forjoining us. as we were saying, wisconsin is one of the worst affected states in the country and that will certainly be on the ballot as people continue to vote. the polls will be closing shortly here in wisconsin. yalda, thank you forjoining us. the state was hit by the 2008 recession

and has now been hit again during the pandemic. manufacturing has been hit because everything has been shut down. we are able to project west virginia for donald trump, winning co mforta bly virginia for donald trump, winning comfortably there. no surprise, as he won it in 2016. it is probably the second most republican state in the second most republican state in the country. it is a poor white state, dependent on the fossil fuel industry and trump territory. not a big population, five electoral couege big population, five electoral college votes. the counting in florida is continuing, 92% county. mrtrump is florida is continuing, 92% county. mr trump is still one percentage point ahead, but that is almost 200,000 votes ahead. so it does look like he's heading into pole in florida. and of course, republicans will be delighted by that. so mr trump. but we should remember, after speaking to the republican mayor of miami, the reason may be related to

the nature of the hispanic population in florida. it is more republican than hispanic populations in states like texas, arizona or new mexico. that may therefore not be releva nt for mexico. that may therefore not be relevant for mr trump's performance in wisconsin, where we just work, or pennsylvania, ohio and so on. so there is some context. let's cross to christian fraser at the bbc board. i think you're right, i would be feeling good if i were in donald trump's camp about florida. it is a 200,000 vote lead. he won it by 100,02016 and they are counting the on the day ballot, which tends to be more republican. they like to vote in person. so this lead is stretching. when andrew was talking about miami, looking back at my research for the 2018 senate race in florida, which bill nelson, the

democrat senator, lost to rick scott, he put vote share on in counties that hillary clinton had won, but he lost vote share to republicans in miami dade. it went 8% more republican and he lost by 0.2%. but it was in miami dead where he lost it. a senate race is not a presidential race but there are echoes of that war we are now seeing in the adventuress this time. so florida is starting to lean towards the trump camp. let me show you a couple of the other southern states and some interesting information. let's talk first about north carolina. it is becoming more urban and there are metro areas around charlotte and raleigh will decide this election. here you see biden jumping into the lead because the absentee ballots have been counted first. but look at the absentee ballots. 78% of the vote is early

and excuse to joe ballots. 78% of the vote is early and excuse tojoe biden by ten points. so if you are in the democrat camp and you are looking at north carolina, that is going to be really close tonight. but maybe it is tilting towards the democrats, albeit narrowly. georgia, we talked about earlier but if you are just joining us, let me remind you, 18% of the vote has been counted. they are counting the in—person vote. it will take them two days to count the absentee ballots but again, look at it. over three quarters of it is heavily leaning towards joe biden. so what does that mean? could we be looking at something interesting down here in the south? i am going to put back up the map from 2016. florida stays in red. we said

florida stays in red. we said florida had to stay red to get donald trump into the battle. but if you are looking at that ballot in north carolina, what if you put north carolina, what if you put north carolina, what if you put north carolina in blue and georgia in blue? we might not know for a couple of days because it would democratic time to count the ballot. arizona, which is polling well towards joe arizona, which is polling well towardsjoe biden, arizona, which is polling well towards joe biden, we arizona, which is polling well towardsjoe biden, we will get in the next hour or so. look at that, 274 and we have not even talked about the midwest. that is why georgia and north carolina are so crucial. even though the trump camp will be celebrating about florida, they won't like the picture of those two other southern states at this moment. christian, thank you for that update. let's get a quick check on the news with tina daheley. thank you. counting in the us presidential election is under way in several southern, midwestern and eastern states as people choose between the incumbent,

donald trump and his democratic rival, joe biden. none of the key battle ground states have been called for either candidate. in florida, with 29 electoral college votes, the counting is extremely close at the moment. after crisscrossing the country in the last few days, the president is back in washington and watching the results come in at the white house. earlier, he said winning was easy but losing was not, whilejoe biden has pledged to restore what he called decency and honour to the white house. will grant reports. billions of dollars are spent, months of campaigning and almost 100 million votes cast before polling day itself. this has been a race to the white house like no other, all of it against a backdrop of a global pandemic that has claimed 230,000 american lives. for some, election day has been a chance to pause, to reflect. suddenly president trump's challenger has presented this vote as a referendum on the unpredictable presidency, on the four years of deep polarisation and division.

joe biden, often mocked by the president for his advanced age, made his final call for votes from his childhood home in the crucial battle ground pennsylvania. the state of pennsylvania. cheering. president trump's path to victory is narrow, narrower even than in his unlikely win four years ago, but he has upset the odds in the past and insists he hasn't prepared a speech either for victory or defeat. winning is easy, losing is never easy, not for me, it's not. so it all boils down to these coming few hours and the question which the united states, indeed, the entire world watching on, is asking. have the american people opted for four more years of donald trump, or consigned him to becoming the first one—term president since george bush senior? will grant, bbc news, washington.

americans are also casting ballots for seats in the us congress and are choosing new governors in 11 states. most eyes are on the third of seats up for grabs in the senate. opinion polls suggest the democrats have a chance of capturing the upper house after six years of republican majorities. if they do, it would help mr biden's legislative programme were he to win the presidency, and hinder mr trump's plans if he gets a second term. the house of representatives is expected to stay under democratic control. in other news — the government of austria has confirmed the attack in vienna was carried out by just one gunman. he's been identified as a 20—year—old son of migrants, with dual nationality, who had previously been jailed for trying tojoin a jihadist group in syria. four people died after he opened fire on monday evening — an elderly man and woman, a young male passer—by and a waitress, while another 22 people were wounded. police have since carried out a series of raids and made 14 arrests.

hurricane eta has lashed nicaragua and honduras, leaving widespread damage in its wake. the category four storm, with winds gusting at 140 miles per hour — that's 225 kilometres per hour — has caused several buildings to collapse. there are warnings of life—threatening storm surges, flash flooding and landslides. the government of poland has delayed bringing in a ban on abortion in almost all circumstances. it comes following two weeks of mass protests since the high court ruled terminations due to defects in the foetus were illegal. a government spokesman said there was a need for peace, and more discussion around the judgement. argentine football legend diego maradona is to have "routine surgery" for bleeding around the brain caused by a head injury in the next few hours. the 60—year—old world cup winner was admitted to a clinic in buenos aires on monday, suffering from anaemia and dehydration. he's now been transferred to a hospital in la plata,

where the operation will take place. doctors say they expect him to make a full recovery. there is of course much more bbc news online and on your mobile. you can find the latest details and analysis by our correspondents. you can also use our live results map to see all the votes in every us state as they come in. that is the latest bbc news. now back to us 2020. it's just past 8:30pm here on the east coast, we will get a whole load more polls closing in about half an hour's time and hopefully more of those votes. we've been looking at georgia, a state where it is tight,

but the polling data processing process has been tied up there because of a water main pipe bursting in one area, so actually there is a whole on that so we can't get some of the information. we were hoping to get some of that earlier. let's look at where we are on the electoral college, the numbers are starting to be filled in, 42 for donald trump, and just ahead of him, 44 forjoe biden, so at the moment it feels a little bit like this race, doesn't it, andrew, it's tight, it's tight between the two men and we are waiting to get some more of those states. more of those men and we are waiting to get some more of those states. we won florida, georgia, north carolina, we wa nt florida, georgia, north carolina, we want those states to give us some kind of results because that when we will get a sense of where it's going. at the moment we keep updating you on florida, that is the big one to watch. it looks like it is still holding for donald trump, but if it doesn't hold for donald trump he needs to win it in order to get to the white house but it looks

like it's good for donald trump. what we don't want, katty, is any more burst pipes. and there is some sort of counting delay in virginia sort of counting delay in virginia soi sort of counting delay in virginia so i don't know what's happening around america this evening, whether it's burst pipes or broken air conditioners, things are going slower than we expect. a spot of do it yourself i think. in florida, mr trump leads by 230,000 votes so it would seem as the night goes on that florida is going to be in donald trump ‘s cam. the republicans are already claiming it. we don't, we don't do that on the basis of what parties claim, but there is no question it is going his way. gary o'donoghue is at the white house in washington, dc. hejoins us now. the trump team will be obviously very relieved that they look like they have won florida, looked like they have won florida, looked like they have won florida, looked like they have won it, but as they look at some of the early results coming in from the rust belt states, which

they also need to win, the night is clearly not over for them yet by a long chalk? by no means, florida is first base for trump campaign, they have to get to that to be in the game whatsoever and as things are going it's looking increasingly like that with those votes coming in from the panhandle, where donald trump tends to do better in florida in particular, so that really is the beginning of building a number of votes that gets them to 270. of course at the top of the next hour we will start to see results coming in from places like michigan and wisconsin, the old blue wall as it was called, and that's where the real nail biting will start for the trump campaign but then obviously pleased with what's happening in florida. we are hearing also not officially at all but through some previous had viruses like kellyanne conway who is suggesting the president may actually decide to say

something from the east room later tonight, he has had invited guests, several hundred people are supposedly coming for a party, he may say something from that, we are told they are possibly going to be screened and tested at the trump hotel before they come in but that would be an interesting moment. that will be the moment people are waiting for, to see whether the president tries to make some kind of claim about the election before the data bears it out and that is going to bea data bears it out and that is going to be a difficult moment for the nation if he does that. just to clarify, gary, we think the president might speak to the nation even before it's clear who has won, because if he does that, that would certainly be an unusual development on an election night? well, that's certainly been some of the reporting on the last few days, that he was planning to do that. we know, andrew, he's been talking about the idea that all the votes should be counted on election night, you should know who has won on the night and we know that's not the reality

of the way it works here, particularly with all these mail—in ballots and some states like pennsylvania and others not counting those mail—in ballots until today, so the results can look very skewed at this point of the evening and in the next few hours, but the president has been talking about that and potentially trying to claim victory, but we will see what he does. the campaign on a call earlier on were a bit more circumspect about the claims he would make and when he might make them. i think trying to sort of dampen down that speculation and suggest they would go on the basis of the data, but of course there will be enormously contentious moments particularly in the rust belt states where the lawyers may have to get involved. all of these things are ahead of us at the moment but as we said at the beginning of this, getting to that first base with potentially taking florida as we get towards the end of the counting there will be a huge moment

for this white house, who felt that the evening of course could have been overa the evening of course could have been over a lot earlier for them if that hadn't happened for slight indeed it would have been over a whole lot earlier, gary, gary o'donoghue there at the white house. as he is saying, they need to win florida but it's not the end of the night for them, it simply allows them to continue through the night to see what other states they need to see what other states they need to pick up. yeah, and worth keeping an eye on what gary was mentioning there, about whether either president biden or president trump orjoe biden and vice president biden, comes out and decides they are going to speak early this evening because there is a sort of game of chicken going on about each camp trying to ward the other off from claiming victory can early. they remember what happened back in 2000 and the democrats felt back then that al gore conceded too early and they've decided this time around they will take a very different tactic. it will be much more

aggressive and much more assertive, aggressive and much more assertive, a lot more lawyers hired on the democratic side than in 2000 and they say if it comes to a legal fight they are prepared to go the whole way but in a way you might set the tone for it with the president coming out early and even if he doesn't come out early and say he is claiming victory and has been re—elected, the fact that he comes out early in the east wing of the white house and the east room of the white house and the east room of the white house and makes a statement that sounds confident and victorious, that could be enough already to kind of tips of the mood music you were talking about earlier. we are not there yet, as gary says, but we could get there and that would be unusual. let's go tojoe biden's and that would be unusual. let's go to joe biden's headquarters and that would be unusual. let's go tojoe biden's headquarters in delaware and nick bryant is there. nick, we're hearing there from the white house that they are feeling good about florida, perhaps even feeling good enough for the president to come out and speak to the nation early this evening, before all these results have been

counted even possibly. what are you hearing from the former vice president's camp? is joe hearing from the former vice president's camp? isjoe biden planning to address the nation tonight, whatever happens? this is what we... the original plan that joe biden would come and address his supporters, they are having a driving event here in delaware, in wilmington, his hometown. they haven't let the car is in we are stood in the middle of this massive empty car park right now. but that was the plan. but earlier todayjoe biden said he wouldn't be speaking unless he had something definitive to say, so we are not quite sure at the moment. we could have a very full car park of hundreds of cars waiting to see joe biden, that we don't know whether they will see him not. interesting what they are saying about florida. when i spoke to that super—confident biden adviser earlier in the evening it was interesting in the states that he was suggesting we look at florida wasn't one of them. they always thought that florida was a toss—up. they are not pinning their hopes on

florida. they wouldn't have loved to have won it of course because it's a knockout punch, without florida it's ha rd knockout punch, without florida it's hard to see a path donald trump after the white house, but their calculations are not based on florida. they are saying look at north carolina, georgia. if i had a dollar for every time a biden person said about georgia i could definitely buy a round of coffee is! they are saying georgia, look at mitch michigan, wisconsin. the biden campaign has more routes to 270 than the trump campaign does, but if we we re the trump campaign does, but if we were going to see a big blue wave sweeping across the country that perhaps would then help them flip the senate as well, should we have started to see it by now? florida is such an interesting state, isn't it? so many democratic hopes have been dashed in florida over the years. they had such great hopes for the

state in 2018 in the governors race in senate race, hillary clinton four years ago, their hearts were broken in florida in 2000, george w bush won the state in controversial circumstances by 537 votes, so they've learned their lesson in re ce nt they've learned their lesson in recent times. don't pin your hopes on florida and they will be looking at other states. they are outperforming hillary clinton in places like young stan in ohio, maybe that's indicative because it's such a rust belt community, the sort of people thatjoe biden such a rust belt community, the sort of people that joe biden was basically hired to win back, so maybe that is indicative. florida is such a clear real estate now, like i say, the democrats have learned the lesson from the past —— a curious state. they do not pin their hopes on florida any more. nick bryant in delaware, it will be so interesting if we get to the end of this night and we find thatjoe biden has done

better amongst white voters, perhaps even particularly working—class white voters, than we might have expected, and donald trump has done better amongst minority voters, latino voters and some african—american voters than we might have expected as well. it could flip. there are indications of that because we have seen mr trump doing well among hispanics in florida. and some early results, mr biden is doing well among white voters in ohio. that could be the upset that we had not anticipated. as i was saying earlier, that is exactly why joe biden made the pitch during the primary campaign. he looked donald trump's coalition, he looked at where hillary clinton lost. she lost amongst white working class voters in michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. and he went to the democratic party and said, if you wa nt to democratic party and said, if you want to get rid of donald trump, i'm the one who can win back some of

those voters. i can hold together enough of the african—american, latino voting coalition. the young voters will come to me, but i can peel away some of those voters from donald trump. if he does win tonight, that may well be why he does it. let's go back to our panel of experts. amanda venti area is a former political director for hillary clinton piedmont in california. why is it such a struggle for you, amanda? why can't you even when florida these days? florida has always been hard and the biden campaign actually started the morning saying it would be nice to get florida, but it is not the necessary path to victory. the florida latino community is very different, particularly the new folks who have come in but also, there have been years of connecting socialism to democrats and that has

beena socialism to democrats and that has been a difficult message to break. and we are seeing that again. anyone in democratic politics knows that you don't put your path on florida, it is an extra. this campaign has been incredibly disciplined about the march to the midwest, making sure he brings home those voters. and as you do think about the latino community going west, it's a different community. the mexican american community in a place like texas and arizona, you see that differently. we know the latino community in florida is different from what it is in texas or new mexico. there are fewer mexican—americans in florida, but even so, for a party that has the demographics going with it, up against a president that your base hates, doesn't just against a president that your base hates, doesn'tjust dislike but hates, doesn'tjust dislike but hates, to be able to struggle in

this way to win florida suggests... you are probably still favourites to win, but there is no blue wave, is there? you are not sweeping the country. there is no blue wave in florida. i think there are still a lot of states to go. we will see what happens in wisconsin. when you think about our senate candidates, you have north carolina looking very good right now. you have races that we have yet to see throughout the state. and again, the east coast, we always know the first couple of hours is tough for the democratic party because the tone does get set by florida. but ask anyone in democratic politics and we know the path to victory is bringing home a lot of the states we have had in the past. and biden has done an incredible job in the midwest. i think you are going to see this. you have seen it in north carolina and we are going to continue to see it

throughout the evening. we all want some of those votes to come in. ron christie, former special adviser to george w bush, we have been skirting around the senate. we ought to remind viewers, there is the race for the presidency going on, but there is also the race for the senate and house of representatives. the race for the senate, at the moment republicans have 53 senators. democrats have 47 senators, they have got to flip depending what happens in the presidential election, either three or four seats. why is the senate race important? if you are watching this programme in singapore or in the south of england and you have stayed up south of england and you have stayed up all night, good for you. why should you care about the senate? the reason the senate race is so critical for republicans, should they be able to hold on, is that the president of the united states under the constitution has the ability to appoint senior officials to the government, but they are appointed

with the advice and consent of the united states senate. president trump for example has appointed three justices to the united states supreme court. they can appoint senior administration officials. if mr biden wins this evening and it flips over control of the united states senate to the democrats, that will give the ability for the democrats to run the table. they can appoint who they want to the court. they can appoint these senior officials and the republicans will be powerless to stop them. that is why republicans are anxious this evening. they are looking at this and saying, we have got to hold on and saying, we have got to hold on and be able to put a brake on democratic power if mr biden wins. are you getting a feel on how the senate is going, one way or the other? i have heard that susan collins in maine, her people are feeling increasingly confident, which would be a huge win for the republican party. we have to open seats in georgia, katty. there is

going to be a long, anxious evening for those republicans who are saying, can we at least put the brakes on, should joe saying, can we at least put the brakes on, shouldjoe biden saying, can we at least put the brakes on, should joe biden win? ron christie and amanda, thank you. we will be back with you later. let's talk to larry sabato, professor of politics at the university of virginia in charlottesville. we spoke about an hour ago. what are you feeling at this stage? donald trump scored a big win in florida. it hasn't been formally called yet, but most of the florida experts i know on both sides believe trump will indeed carry it. not by a big margin, but florida never goes by a big margin to anybody. remember, that was the circuit breaker that biden was hoping for. if he had won florida, trump's victory for re—election became nearly

impossible. well, now he has got it and the pressure is on biden to win and the pressure is on biden to win a big swing state. maybe he will do it in north carolina, may be in georgia, but he hasn't done it yet. and when you look at the numbers, is there a reason he hasn't done it? if we had expected a big, resounding repudiation of donald trump's presidency and a big blue wave for the democrats, wouldn't we have already seen a sign of that by now? not necessarily. we are very, very split. the vote is very partisan, which is exactly what we expected. even a big win for biden would probably be 6% or 7%. so the answer is no. this night hasjust begun the next phase of the campaign has just begun we have got tonnes of races yet to decide. even talking

about control of the senate at this point is ludicrous. then you will have to forgive me for being impatient. we have been waiting and waiting, you know what it's like. what are you reading into the exit polling data in terms of the groups of people who have showed up? donald trump needed to make sure the white evangelicals and white men turned out in big numbers. there are bad and want to make sure the democratic base turned out for him. i reading anything into the numbers in florida —— are you reading anything to show whether each side is getting out the numbers they need ? whether each side is getting out the numbers they need? well, for hispanics, you have to say that donald trump is doing better this time than he did in 2016, so that is a plus for him. he is doing two or three percentage points better with

african—americans. he is doing worse with senior citizens by two or three points. so we are seeing small changes. people have been invested in their choice since 2016, and our own survey in their choice since 2016, and our own survey showed that 85% of americans who were likely to vote we re americans who were likely to vote were decided on this race six months ago. they haven't changed. only 4% we re ago. they haven't changed. only 4% were undecided. so anybody expecting a lot of change will be very disappointed. and yet throughout the year, the polls have been consistent and joe biden has been consistently ahead. if he doesn't win tonight, should the entire polling industry be fired? if he doesn't win once the counting is done, which will take days, then i would think we are going to take a big sledgehammer to the polling industry. i certainly will swing two or three times. so yes, but it's too soon to judge whether that is true. i take your

point, it is too soon to judge and not all the votes have been counted. andrew, we have to remember that some of these votes have been mailed in and the voting takes a very long time. so whilst we may not be getting the results now, that doesn't mean much, itjust means we all have to wait. we can now protect arkansas for donald trump, a solid republican southern state and the home of bill clinton, where he was governor at one stage. he is pretty farahead. only governor at one stage. he is pretty far ahead. only 13% of the vote has been counted, but those that have been counted, but those that have been counted, but those that have been counted are pretty representative. it means arkansas stays in the republican camp. florida, they are still counting. 94% done now. mr trump is on 51%, mr biden on 48. it's a big lead of 261,000 votes. it is even a bit of a swing from democrat to republican

compared to 2016. we are not yet projecting that because florida is a complicated state. even with 93% in, we are not prepared to stick our necks out and projected for mr trump, but it is looking good. let's go back to miami. nomia iqbal is there. i don't think it was going to be that easy, was it? i am sure the democrats would have loved to have won florida because if they had, it would have delivered the first round knockout punch to donald trump and joe biden's path to the white house would have been smoother. i am joe biden's path to the white house would have been smoother. lam here in miami—dade, and what could have gone wrong? if you look at the cuban—american population, particularly in miami, they make up nearly half of it. that message that donald trump has been pushing about the claims thatjoe biden is a socialist, that has really pushed

through. last month, iwas socialist, that has really pushed through. last month, i was here and there was a bus tour that donald trump there was a bus tour that donald trumerdid around there was a bus tour that donald trump jr did around florida, there was a bus tour that donald trumer did around florida, calling the democrats socialists and communists. that kind of thing really sends alarm bells firing up for cuban—americans. not all of them, i spoke to one woman outside a polling station on the last day of in—person voting and she said to me, actually, i'm scared of donald trump. he reminds me more of latin american dictators, especially when he refuses to commit to a peaceful transition of power seemingly. but as you say, the votes are not 100% counted yet. but as your previous guests have said, the democrats you have a difficult relationship with florida, so ifjoe biden doesn't win here, they will be looking to the rust belt. thanks for that, nomia. katty, if florida goes to mr trump,

it is obviously a huge victory for him. but because of this distinctive hispanic vote in florida, i wonder whether it doesn't mean that mr trump can therefore think he will repeat what he did in the rust belt states last time stop he came out of florida last time and suddenly started picking off michigan and pennsylvania, wisconsin and so on. the early figures from their are not so good for him. i think you're right. it doesn't follow that what happened in 2016 is going to happen tonight. and it also doesn't follow that the latino vote in florida is going to be copied in places like texas, georgia and arizona as well because as you said, they are very different. those cu ban—america ns because as you said, they are very different. those cuban—americans and venezuelan americans tend to vote much more republican. and there are more venezuelan americans than there used to be, so that could be another

voting bloc that will be important for donald trump. we are still watching florida, but it doesn't follow that it is going to go the same way, you're right. it is 9.00 on the eastern sea board of the united states. 14 more states have closed their polls. let us have a quick look at them. polling has closed in michigan, wisconsin, minnesota, arizona, colorado, new mexico, texas, various others, interesting states there, which we will come to many minute. this won't shock many people but new york is projected forjoe biden. it is worth 29 electoral college vote, that is the same number of votes that it looks mr biden is not going to get in florida, that is going to go to donald trump, but gets new york, which he was always going to do. texasis which he was always going to do. texas is another big state, it has

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