the west in late afternoon, so, rain moving in through the evening to the western uk. hello this is bbc news with tim willcox. the headlines the entertainer des o'connor— known for his prime—time tv shows — has died at the age of 88. big hopes for the new coronavirus vaccine from the company behind it — but warnings of a hard winter ahead. 11 big impact on the infection numbers this winter. labour calls for the government to force social media companies to remove anti—vaccine content from their platforms. the uk's chief brexit negotiator insists he won't be changing course ahead of a crucial week in trade talks with the eu. oh, what a save! the former liverpool

and england goalkeeper ray clemence has died at the age of 72. now on bbc news. as the nhs in wales deals with one of its biggest ever challenges, many patients are left wondering what it means for them long term. bbc wales investigates follows those dealing with life and death i'm off to hospital today for my fifth session of chemotherapy. my friend kirsty is driving me up. i have been very lethargic and that has frustrated me quite a bit to be honest. simon green is having treatment

for a fast growing brain tumour. kirsty and her five—year—old daughter have been helping him through it. he is a massive part of our family, we call him uncle si si. i've explained to lucia in simple terms. but she doesn't think he's better because he's up and about and doing things. i explained to lucia that si si has got a bad head, and she said, "mummy, i'll give him lots of kisses "on his head, and i'd make him better like i did before." and i said, "yeah, that'd be that'd be a really good." happy new year! two years ago, simon, a keen wheelchair athlete from pencoed near bridgend — was treated for cancer. he was in remission but in march he became unwell. they took me to casualty and gave me a ct scan

and some blood tests, and they said look, we can't tell a huge amount, you need an mri. then i have letter saying it's been cancelled because of because of lockdown for safety reasons. simon had to wait two months to have the scan. they told me that the tumour was back but bigger before on the spread amongst the brain and was not operable. if they scanned me on the original date in march rather than in may, then i think they would have found a tumour a lot earlier because it's quite fast growing. that's not slagging off the nhs because they're overwhelmed at the moment. if i hadn't been so gobby and phoned and insisted, i might not be scanned yet. i believe it's cost me maybe a future. as wales emerges from the second lockdown, the pressures on our nhs

show no sign of letting up. in this programme, we reveal the scale of the disruption the first lockdown has already had on our health service. with further restrictions on the horizon, what next for tens of thousands of patients who've already had life—changing treatments delayed? choir sings. in the cynon valley, christopher mugford joins the local choir rehearsal. in lockdown, it's had to be online. you lose yourself for an hour with the other members of the choir. it's a definite boost to one's mental health. it's kept me together.

for months, he's been worried he may have bowel cancer after showing symptoms. injanuary, he was told he'd need further tests. a date in march was set for the colonoscopy but lockdown meant non—emergency operations were cancelled. i think it's 30, 31 weeks beyond the date that i was supposed to have surgery. and if it's a cancer inside me, it's progressing. my concern is notjust for myself, there were 25 or 30 people in that room, waiting to see a colorectal surgeon. i'm lucky knowing about it, i went to my gp straight away. if any of those people had waited, they could be in an advanced stage of having cancer and not getting

treatment and none of them know. as christopher waits for his tests, he's not alone. during the first lockdown, it's feared thousands of others waited longer for their tests too. this cancer hospital in cardiff sees around 5,000 new cases a year, but in lockdown fewer emerged. there are some thousands of patients who have not come through to the system that usually would have some of those are going to have had cancer, and they will not have been diagnosed now. these are people who, had they been seen earlier, see sooner, may have had a longer life expectancy than they can now expect? yeah, i think cancer outcomes will be worse as a result of this pandemic. we have done some modelling work with england. and it has suggested that between 200 and 2,000 excess deaths will occur as a result

of undiagnosed or untreated cancer in wales. do you anticipate that more people will actually have died from cancer that could have survived than will have actually died from covid? i think we don't honestly know. but i suspect in the long run, that will be the case, because i think the effects on cancer services are going to be here for two to three years in the future. across wales, it's feared thousands of people could already be living with those consequences. simon hasjust had a call from the hospital about his chemotherapy treatment. well, hello. i'm afraid i've had some bad news. my eyes look red, i got emotional earlier, got some bad news. i'm gutted and devastated. the chemo is making me iller,

and too ill to continue. it's lowered my red and white cells which is why i am so tired and why i am feeling like poo to be honest. he's worried about what it might mean for him and the people the cares about. i want to see her grow up. you know, i want to disapprove of her first boyfriend. you know, i want to... buy her drink, you know, a legal drink of course. but there's lots of one to do. and i still hope they can do that. but i have resigned myself that i unlikely will. whether it's six months or a year, i want to make the most of the time i've got left. there's so much i want to do. simon has been to ask his doctor whether a different treatment might buy him some more time.

i took a photo of the scan in the hospital. that's the tumour what you can see small and that's the small spreading, like an egg cracking. they want to stop that spreading on the brain and further down the body. she said with the radiotherapy, i would give you an extra, two or more good years. i honestly feel that if i had the scan in march, then my prognosis would be a lot better. but it's something that i'll never know. simon's health board, cardiff and vale, says it was unfortunate that it had to postpone some services because of covid and it was done in line with welsh government advice. we've been investigating how many people could have been affected by the disruption to the nhs.

i'm in swansea where the university has been tracking the anonymised health records of the entire population of wales during the pandemic. it's one of the most detailed studies that exists anywhere in the world. we know there's been a very large impact on health services, both for people who were treated and the fact that the health service were then consumed with treating those people and struggle to meet the needs of the rest of the population. we went from 2,500 people a day attending emergency departments to about 1,000 — huge reductions. around april, which would have been the worst of the months, we went from a situation where our surgery dropped by around 80%. the research found that during the first lockdown, nearly 62,000 fewer patients were operated on in wales. that's a drop of 5a%, compared to the same period last year.

there's been signs that it has been recovering. the bit that we're worried about now, as the virus increases that, again, will have a massive knock—on effect on the hospitals and their ability to provide those services. the scale of the changes, we've never seen anything like it. what is the closest thing we've come to this before? um, i think those would have been before i was born. effectively, things like world wars. the welsh nhs has achieved extraordinary things in the pandemic. it's kept emergency treatment going. but for those who need urgent surgery, many are still waiting. 0ur problem then is, who do we prioritize? do we take into account a policeman? whose ability to work properly

affects the society at large? or do we prioritize a person who is in agony all the time and is literally suicidal? some people ring and say, "i feel that death will be better than the pain i'm suffering." how long will those waiting lists extend for? flip a coin, it's that kind of thing. but if we have a complication like a second spike or severe flu pandemic, then you know it could be, who knows, three years maybe more. we asked all health boards in wales how long it might take to clear the patient backlog caused by the pandemic. none of them could put a figure on it. but we've discovered that patients are already waiting much longer than they did before. in september there were more than 19,000 people in wales waiting more than a year for treatment. that's a ten—fold increase on last year.

simon green knows his treatment won't cure the cancer. before his terminal diagnosis, he regularly competed in charity races. today he's at a local event building up his stamina for the big one — the virtual london marathon. knowing that i may only have two years left, this time next year i may not be able to do these events and that's why i want to do them now. the doctors did frown a little bit when i said i was doing this! simon is determined to raise as much money as he can in the time he has left. so if i can raise a million pounds then great, but even if it's only a few hundred, then that's good also because every penny donated will make a difference. 667, ok. i'm already knackered. i will finish, i will finish.

simon completes race. i want to do the 26.2 miles. fingers crossed i will. i've said i'll do it now so i've got to at least try! i'm going to sleep now! before that simon faces radiotherapy to keep his cancer at bay. we've discovered that across wales during the first lockdown, around 3,500 fewer people were treated for cancer with chemo and radiotherapy. that's a drop of 20% compared to the same time last year. there's deep concern amongst cancer specialists. we're currently in most services running at about 60 to 80% of our normal capacity, where really, we should be dealing with 120, i30% capacity, you know, to deal with the backlog of cases.

we're facing an unprecedented tsunami of demand onto the system. another pandemic, but this time a cancer pandemic? possibly. i think initially in a pandemic, all the focus was on dealing with acute covid problems. and that was at the expense of essential non—covid services such as cancer and cardiac and orthopaedic services. the key issue for me is getting health boards to collaborate together to potentially designate whole hospitals as protected sites to be able to maintain diagnostics and elective treatments. did the welsh government understand that at the start of this covid outbreak and did they respond to your concerns? i think there are times where a more directive approach to the nhs to work together to collaborate across organisational boundaries might have helped. the welsh government has spent billions fighting covid while keeping the nhs going.

i'm meeting the health minister to ask about the choices they've had to make. while we're dealing with covid perhaps in a plausible way, do you acknowledge the number of people who dying of cancer who wouldn't otherwise have died is at an unacceptable level? because of the choices we've made, it's undoubtedly the case we'll see poor outcomes and that does mean more people having avoidable disability, more people potentially losing their lives with non—covid care. not acting would have meant that the service would have been overwhelmed with very poor care to covid and non—covid patients. but it also would have been disastrous for our staff as well. what is your plan to get the waiting list in all areas back to some sort of acceptable level? well, we're already looking at what recovery could and should look like. but to try to say that there is a plan now would be foolish. so you have no plan? with respect, wyre, we need to get to the end of the pandemic with more certainty to understand where it is. we don't yet know what will happen through the rest of the winter.

to try to have a nailed down plan for whatjune might look like next year would be foolish. as we're hit by the second wave, we know the welsh nhs is rising to the challenge of treating covid patients. but we've discovered it's notjust other physical health treatments and procedures that have been affected as a result. mental health services have been disrupted too. i'm normally good at being positive. i've dragged myself up and picked myself up mentally and physically so many times. i've just been on the, like, rollercoaster of exhilaration, and anxiety too much and you know, constantly scared and in fear. ryan donohue, a marine biology graduate, has had serious mental health issues for most of the past decade.

grateful for help from a psychiatric unit last year, he was having ongoing support in north wales. i'd been waiting, you know, over a year and then i started meeting a temporary psychiatric nurse. butjust days into lockdown he was told his treatment would stop because of covid restrictions. ijust got a voicemail message, which i could hardly hear, and just a very blunt letter, and then you know, when in your head you're just on the precipice, not knowing what's next. i mean, arguably, this is your one branch of medicine, which could be done remotely. so i don't see why it was cut so harshly in this regard, if you know what i mean. ryan was one of 1,700 patients across north wales who were wrongly discharged. the prospect of getting help and feeling better is slow.

it's like a slow rise and as you know it takes a long time of steady progress and i feel like a huge trough now, if you like, just a huge dip, essentially. betsi cadwaladr health board told us it accepts that mistakes were made in its initial response to the pandemic, and it apologises to people who feel they have been let down. it says it tried ? unsuccessfully ? to get back in touch it says it tried, unsuccessfully, to get back in touch with ryan, and was continuing to accept new referrals. if i didn't have my dog, who's my absolute anchor, ifeel like i would have been very much in a similar situation to last year. intrusive suicide thoughts, such heavy despair. the only thing that's been able to lift that was me not wanting to leave her and it not being fair for me to leave her. nearly 33,000 fewer people contacted their gp during lockdown

for help with things like anxiety or depression. that's down 50% on the same period last year. more than 700 fewer sought help for severe mental illness, a drop of 43%. mental health charities, including hafal, say some have struggled to get the help they need. we all have a right to health care. we all have a right to help. so why is it one person in the south of wales gets fantastic support and one another individual in north wales doesn't? it shouldn't be happening. mair says while some health boards kept services going remotely using technology, others were inadequate. that lack of consistency, is very, very worrying. some might become a harm to themselves or danger to themselves.

i worry that some of those people will have a... will spiral downwards, that they will lose their trust and not want to seek help again. in some severe cases i reckon we might see some deaths, unfortunately. who do you hold responsible? welsh government. and whilst i'm willing to say of course, this was a new situation for a lot of us, but you're in thatjob for a reason. you're there to lead. so, where was the leadership? the welsh government has appointed a dedicated ministerfor mental health and invested nearly £10 million extra in services. but is there an unacceptable level of difference in the services provided between health board areas? in terms of mental health, when we're looking at the returns come in from what north wales are doing, there's been some challenge and criticism which every health board is facing. that's one way of putting it, challenges. but we're always clear that mental health was an essential service that needed to continue. we know that there was a mistake that was made in terms

of discharging people and the health board recovered that and went back and did the right thing. the thought of future lockdowns and what radiotherapy may mean for the time he has left is worrying simon. i just can't sleep. i'm terrified to be honest about how it's going to affect me. i want to live as good a life as i can. i want to see people, i want to get drunk, i want to go away and see people who don't live in my area. go away and visit family. i'm frustrated, i'm lying in bed but i should go to sleep, so yes, my light‘s going off. simon's big day has finally arrived. he's about to do the virtual london marathon, but storm alex has hit. so many times in the past people

have written me off and so many times i've proved people wrong, so i'm more determined than ever to get these events done. he did say, "oh i don't know whether i can do this, kirst, "i'm not feeling myself. i'm feeling sick." three hours in and simon is seriously struggling. 0nly halfway through, he doesn't know if he'll get to the finish. as simon is battling, lee has finally had his hip surgery. hey, lee, how did the operation go? christopher has had his cancer test results back. i've now got a malignant tumour. and in less than two weeks, i'm having major surgery to remove most of my colon. it'll take me six months, maybe longer, to recover. am i annoyed about it? well, that's an understatement. the thing about it is the medical team have been absolutely brilliant.

what i blame are the politicians and the management. those in charge insist they are doing their best. christopher's health board, cwm taf morgannwg, wouldn't comment on his case, but says it's working to national guidance to maintain cancer services and says urgent cases are still being seen. it understands longer waiting lists cause distress and it's looking for alternatives to support those waiting for elective surgery. the health minister says in the weeks and months ahead it's vital we all play a role in fighting the pandemic. things could get worse. the biggest factor in all of that are the choices that we all have about how we live our lives, the choices we make have real world consequences for people waiting, regardless of what their health care need is. and it's ourjob in running

and directing the system to try to balance all of those needs. as wales emerges from the "firebreak" lockdown the race is now on notjust to save people from the virus, but from knock—on effect it's had on every other part of our health service. i do think we need to be more bold and ambitious. we were able to build field hospitals in 2—3 weeks. we need to have that approach now to catch up with the backlog of cases. we're still not sure whether we may face third and fourth waves in the future. we need to have a really clear plan for how we increase the capacity of the system to deal with this backlog. do what you can now rather than put off till tomorrow, next week, next month, because next week or next month might not come. simon knows he won't beat his cancer, but he's determined to beat

the odds and finish his marathon. the way he's been feeling, he's smashed it again. the way he's been feeling with the radiotherapy, he'sjust conquered it again. he'sjust one of a kind. so inspirational. seven hours and 26 gruelling miles later, and simon is on the home straight. he's finally achieved what he set out to do and raised thousands more for charity. i'm shattered. three cheers for simon! they cheer. and it's finally stopped raining! but yeah, and tomorrow radiotherapy again. i hope what's happened over the last few months is a massive learning curve for everyone.

but right now i'm ticking off my bucket list, i intend to live to see the end of this virus and for the world to get back to normal. and hopefully adding to this collection and winning more medals like this one. so, thank you and goodbye. hello. things are looking distinctly stormy along the south coast at the moment. choppy waters here at christchurch in dorset. those powerful showers pushing their way along. these are the bright, white areas you see on the satellite here, this is the main rain band that's now swinging away to the east. still some more persistent rain

to come in the next few hours further north and northern england and scotland, but the showers to the south, i think, pack all the power. the gustiest of the winds here, a risk of some coastal flooding. there goes the tail end of the rain band out into the north sea into the early hours, but showers do follow on for scotland and northern england. it's a mild enough night, with the breeze, lows of 6 to 9 degrees, and then, for monday, a little bit of a breather, a brief ridge of high pressure will ease back the winds. still quite a breezy day, biggest difference, though, largely dry for the majority of the uk during daylight hours. but our next frontal system will start to approach the west in late afternoon, so, rain moving in through the evening to the western uk.

scientists behind the first covid vaccine to be successful in early trials say its full impact will be felt next year. they call for mass vaccination programmes to get normal life back on track — but warn this winter will be hard. the bigger impact won't happen until the summer. the summer will help us anyway because the infection rate will go down in the summer. prince charles and the duchess of cornwall become the first royals to attend germany's national remembrance for victims of war and tyranny. i've kept a list of the insults against des 0'connor... farewell to one of our best known entertainers — des 0'connor has died at the age of 88. that's for all the kids out there who dream the impossible.