this is bbc news. i'm rebecca jones with the latest headlines. the number of new coronavirus cases in england has fallen sharply since the second lockdown began — with some areas down by 50%. some of the northern higher—prevalence regions have had higher drops than some of the midlands and the southern areas but overall we've seen a pretty substantial drop. the prime minister urges disgruntled conservative backbenchers to show "unity" and "resolve" ahead of a commons vote on changes to the tiers system in england tomorrow. ministers say the measures are necessary. we shouldn't stumble at this last hurdle. we've had to take some very difficult decisions. we need to see this through and stick to the course for now. we'll bring you all the latest

political developments, and you can get in touch with your thoughts on this story and the rest of the day's news by contacting me on twitter — @rebeccajonesbbc or using the hashtag #bbcyourquestions the arcadia retail chain is expected to go into administration today, putting 13,000 jobs on the high street at risk. cows m00. the biggest changes to english farming in more than half a century, as ministers publish post—brexit plans to phase out eu farming subsidies and reward enviromental work. environmental work. farmers says the funds dont go far enough. the money available to achieve the objectives of farming for more wildlife is simply not going to be enough for us to deliver successfully. and coming up this hour, formula one driver romain grosjean says he's lucky to be alive after a crash at the bahrainian grand prix.

we'll have more on that in our sports bulletin in half an hour. coronavirus cases are down by almost a third in england, after the latest lockdown restrictions began. the new research comes as borisjohnson is trying to head off a potential rebellion by tory mps over planned restrictions. the highly respected "react—1" study found a 30% fall in infections between 13th and 24th november. cases fell by more than half in the north west and north east, regions with some of the highest numbers of cases. researchers estimated

the virus‘s reproduction rate had fallen to 0.88. this graph shows how the r number has been below one for the first time since september. that means on average every infection translated to less than one other new infection, so the epidemic is shrinking. but overall cases in england remain high. an estimated one in 100 people have coronavirus — double the rate in september. the prime minister is urging disgruntled conservative mps to show "unity" and "resolve". he's publishing an impact assessment to try to assuage their fears over planned restrictions when the national lockdown ends. labour will decide if it will vote with the government tomorrow, after meeting england's chief medical 0fficers later today. this report from rachel schraer.

to get a sense of how many people across england have coronavirus, our best option is to pick a sample of people from different age groups, areas and backgrounds, and test them regularly, whether they have symptoms or not. a study, run by imperial college london, has done just this, and it gives us the most up to date picture of what's happening with covid—19. the researchers swabbed more than 100,000 people between the 13th and the 24th of november while england was in lockdown. they found that during this 12—day period, cases of coronavirus fell by 30%, compared with the last time the imperial team carried out this research. they tested people between the 16th and 25th october, when the country was under a three—tier system of restrictions. and at that point, cases were doubling every nine days. it's not the same across all regions of england. so we've seen some of the northern higher—prevalence regions have had larger drops than some of the midlands and

the southern areas. but overall, we've seen a pretty substantial drop over the period of lockdown. the health secretary, matt hancock, has described imperial‘s findings as encouraging, but he says the country can't take its foot off the pedal yet. the government plans to bring in a new three—tier system on wednesday, this time with tougher rules, and more areas have been placed in the highest level of restrictions. the hope is that this will be enough to keep infections falling, while giving people a few more freedoms and allowing shops to open in the run up to christmas. government scientific advisers have said they expect cases to rise, maybe as much as double, when rules are relaxed over the festive period. so keeping infections under control before then is even more pressing. 0ur political correspondent chris mason is at westminster. the survey showing infections fell by almost a third, normally that would be good news, but how politically awkward could it be for the government? it lends credence to both sides of the argument, it,

because those who want a more liberal approach can point to some headroom, and those who say restrictions are necessary can point out they work. to that extent, i suspect in a political sense, the news this morning is that it probably cancels each other out on both sides. where are this morning in this row at westminster? cutting to the chase, when the vote happens tomorrow, it will pass. the government will be able to introduce in england this tiered system of coronavirus restrictions on wednesday. why do we know that? we know that because in the end i think labour will support the government, and also i think some conservative rebels are being persuaded of the necessity to act, even if they are doing so with a very, very heavy heart. here is the environment secretary george eustice on bbc brea kfast secretary george eustice on bbc breakfast earlier.

well, i think it's fair to say that there's a great deal of frustration with this pandemic. with those, you know, emergency measures that we've been forced to take. i completely understand that. what we have to do as a government is persuade parliament, but also the country at large that we've got a route through this. and i think we do know with the great potential to deploy a vaccine, you know, in short order during the first, you know, three to six months of next year, we will start to get this virus under control and turn the corner hopefully by early summer. mark your card about things to watch out for today, the government will publish an economic impact assessment in to what is coming, and we expect that in the coming hours will stop a senior labour figures will stop a senior labour figures will have a remote call with the chief medical officer will have a remote call with the chief medical 0fficerfor will have a remote call with the chief medical officer for england. no doubt the persuasion job will continue as the government carries on making the case that, yes, they

know this is difficult, desperately, desperately difficult, but in their view necessary. i suspect tomorrow, relu cta ntly, view necessary. i suspect tomorrow, reluctantly, we will see the commons support them. my card is marked! 0ur political correspondent chris mason at westminster. we can speak now to the conservative mp tobias ellwood, whose own bournemouth constituency will be moved from tier1 to tier 2. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. before i get to what you think about the tier system and current and potential rules in the future, can you tell us a bit more about what has been happening in your constituency, both in terms of infections and also the impact on livelihoods? here in dorset, in my constituency, we entered lockdown with pretty low numbers, and departed lockdown with even lower numbers. the last couple of weeks of data, we have seen cases dropped by a third, so we were absolutely baffled as to why we ended up in tier 2. the hospitality industry

across the country, but particularly in places like dorset, where it is very much relied on for the economy, has been severely hit, and they were looking forward to this christmas build up to be able to make amends. there has been great economic intervention by the chancellor but i'm afraid we have come to the tipping point where many businesses will close. there is a recognition, the prime minister is very clear, we can't throw away the hard—fought gains. he also talks about unity and resolve, but we have to recognise that every day the tier system will cost the economy almost £1 billion. so if there is any way that any corner of britain can be allowed to have their economies open up then that should be explored. the political difficulty is, as chris mason was saying, the reactor study is showing that lockdown is working and reducing infection rates, but to pick up on your point on boris johnson calling for unity and resolve, will you show that all vote

against your government tomorrow? there are an awful lot of outstanding questions. there is no playbook for any government in the world to follow in dealing with such a scale of pandemic and it's quite right parliament does its oversight role and scrutinises what is being put forward to see if we can advance the proposal is to a better place. the public that understands and respects rules is more likely to follow them. compliance and coordination is so important to get through this. on december 16 we will see the reviews come up again and we need to make sure every part of the country knows what they should be doing in order to get into a better tier. 0nly today are we seeing that cost benefit analysis being shared. 0ne cost benefit analysis being shared. one of the other criteria that is frustrating is the pressure on local hospitals, for example in bournemouth. yes, the number of covid cases are up but we ask ourselves why aren't nightingale hospitals been better used ? ourselves why aren't nightingale hospitals been better used? we have seven brilliant hospitals in england

lying dormant and we have expert personnel from the armed forces waiting and wanting to help out, but we are punishing our economy because we are punishing our economy because we have been moved into a different tier. you say the nightingale hospitals are lying dormant but i know the one in exeter for example has received coronavirus patients for the first time in the last few days, so those beds are filling up, and let's be honest, that may not be and let's be honest, that may not be a good thing. i ask you again, are you planning on voting against the government tomorrow? no, the purpose of this as we have expressed concerns, and a conversation now ta kes concerns, and a conversation now takes place. that's what politics is all about. i hope to meet the prime minister with dorset mps to express what our ideas are. we need to see the cost benefit analysis, that justification as to why an area like dorset, very similar to the isle of wight, ended up in tier 2, but i would also suggest when you have enclaves, areas where there are low levels of covid outbreak, surrounded by large areas, that they are not

punished, and one where you can do thatis punished, and one where you can do that is by having a national lockdown, restriction in movement as such, apart from essential travel and this would allow tier1 areas to be better protected and tier 3 areas to be better targeted with support. tobias ellwood, we must leave it there. i can see you want to assess there. i can see you want to assess the data on what you will be told today before coming to a decision but good to talk to you, thank you. we will be speaking to professor paul elliott, the director of the react programme, within the next half an hour. the mass testing of students for covid—19, so they can go home safely for the christmas break, is starting at many universities across the uk today. if they test negative, many students will leave university in the "travel window" starting on thursday. 0ur education correspondent dan johnson reports.

two of these tests, three days apart, then 2k hours to make it home for christmas. that's the safest route on offer ahead of the holidays. and here in east london, these students are helping manage the tests as well as taking them. i think this is the safest way of doing it. i think by allowing all students and staff to be tested, we can ensure that we keep the r rate down and people can go home feeling confident. you've got to balance the risk, and this just minimizes it a little bit more. so, yeah, iwould be happier knowing that i got the two negatives to go home and see my parents. a positive result will mean confirmation with a lab test, then isolation. we're very confident that we can test everybody. but support is being promised. the wellbeing advisers will contact the students, make sure they're 0k, offer them emotional support. and i suppose the important thing about doing it now, is that there's a ten—day window if somebody does test positive,

so that they can now go back home to their families and loved ones. still get home in time for christmas? yes, absolutely. it's a huge challenge getting this in place at every university, with enough tests available for all students, and the results being delivered on time, quickly enough so that they can all get home as safely as possible. but this is all voluntary. so the question will be, how many students will actually come forward? in scotland, st andrew's started testing on saturday, and students are already getting results. it didn't feel as bad as i expected it to. like, i'd heard some stories about it being, like, really u nco mforta ble, but it was actually pretty all right. obviously, it's really important for many of them to get back and see families and loved ones during the winter break. we want to do all that we can to make sure that that's possible for them, but we want them to do so in as safe a way as possible. and that's why this testing centre is so important. some lecturers have warned this

travel window could be chaotic after a term that's been so tough for staff as well as students. people feel a bit up and down. i think they're a bit worried about going home to places where the restrictions are higher. i think especially when people have had such little opportunity to mix in st andrew's, i think going home and seeing their family is something that people are quite looking forward to. it's kind of awesome that we can still have some kind of normality and some kind of family time, especially if all the kids are away at uni, it's nice to be home and just to be home and get cooked for and get your washing done and stuff. good to know some priorities haven't changed, despite the pandemic. dan johnson, bbc news. the headlines on bbc news... the number of new coronavirus infections in england has dropped by 30% since the second lockdown was imposed. the prime minister calls for "unity" from his mps as he agrees to publish the data behind england's new tiers system ahead of a vote in the commons tomorrow.

the arcadia retail chain is expected to go into administration today, threatening thousands of jobs. sir philip green's retail empire arcadia, is likely to call in the administrators — putting 13,000 jobs at risk. sources in the company — whose brands include topshop, burton and dorothy perkins — have told the bbc they don't expect a last—minute rescue deal, as greg mckenzie reports. this could be the end of the road for sir philip green's epic retailjourney, one that has brought him riches, a knighthood, but also infamy. arcadia's brand once dominated high street fashion. its chains have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. but its problems stretched further back than that, as it struggled to keep up with online retailers. the company, which includes topshop,

burton and dorothy perkins, would be the biggest retail collapse of the pandemic. if it went into administration, shops are expected to still trade for now, while they try to find a buyer. the arcadia group has more than 500 stores, employing 13,000 people. topshop alone accounts for 250 shops and concessions in 170 towns and cities across the uk. senior sources at the company told the bbc they do not expect a last—minute rescue deal. the offer of a £50 million loan from mike ashley's frasers group has reportedly been dismissed. there is also the added uncertainty for thousands of arcadia staff, as there is an estimated £350 million hole in

the company's pension fund. the bbc understands he is currently on his superyacht, lionheart, which is docked in monaco's harbour. he has so far declined requests for an interview. greg mckenzie, bbc news. let's get more on this with our business presenter ben thompson. good morning. good morning. we are hearing there in that report about some of the issues and some of the thousands of jobs some of the issues and some of the thousands ofjobs at stake if arcadia does collapse later today. as we were hearing, it is expected the business will continue trading, but the big caveat in that is when those shops can reopen. we know looks shops on the high streets across the country will reopen on wednesday but there are big questions about what demand will be and whether people will go back to them. that's the crux of the problem

here. but there are also many other implications as far as the underlying business is concerned. is this a business that failed to keep up this a business that failed to keep up with changing times? it has been described as an analogue business in a digital world. so many are looking at what parts of the business could be bought up, what can be salvaged, and which could disappear from the high street altogether. we have the thoughts of kirsty mcgregor, editor at drapers. a sad day, if it is confirmed the firm goes into administration. talk me through some of the problems. they are failing to keep up in many respects with many of its rivals. absolutely. as you said, covid—19 has hit the high street very hard and arcadia has undoubtedly been affected by that, but its problems started well before the pandemic. there has been a real failure to invest in some of its brands, they have been allowed to wither on the vine, failed to invest

in online proposition and also the stores and concessions, so they haven't kept up with the customer experience and what the younger customer in particular has come to expect. let's talk about the gaps it would leave on the high street, because we touched on some of the brands like topshop, topman, evans, burton, dorothy perkins, all names we know from the high street up and down the country, potentially leaving a very big hole in a very big number of high streets. absolutely it does. from what we hear, there are interests in these brands if the arcadia group goes into administration today and i think there could be a lot of interested parties in buying up some of those brands but some of the parties might not i severally want some of those stores. —— might not necessarily. so if you were to buy topshop, for example, which is thought of as the jewel in the crown of arcadia, it has huge applications

for the workforce because they would be unlikely to want to buy all of the stores. there are also implications as far as the debenhams deal is concerned. you might have to explain that, with debenhams, a separate business, also going through well—documented problems, but a large number of the concessions within a debenhams are those of arcadia brands, so it could put that potential deal in doubt. exactly. if you walk into a debenhams store you will usually find quite a few arcadia concessions with dorothy perkins, top shop, miss selfridge. if you are looking at buying debenhams, andjd selfridge. if you are looking at buying debenhams, and jd sports is very interested in that at the moment, then it would be with the arcadia concessions in there but once you take those out you literally have an empty hole and you will have less people coming into the shops, so debenhams then becomes a much less attractive proposition.

and just talk to me a little bit about some of the big names that are involved here as far as the people behind these businesses. we know there are some big names and big egos. what's going on in terms of the power tussle at the top? it's quite an interesting theatre to watch unfold. we have sir philip green, who owns arcadia group with his wife, and as we heard in that report, there has been some criticism in the past, he has amassed quite a large personal fortune and part of that has been taking pensions out of arcadia group, so taking pensions out of arcadia group, so people have been critical about that money that should have been invested back into the brand. phrases group have put a rescue deal oi'i phrases group have put a rescue deal on the table, mike ashley is another really big personality in the retail industry, he has bought fraser's and has changed his whole company to be

named after that group. he is interested, and it looks like that rescue deal wasn't taken particularly seriously but he will definitely be waiting in the wings to see what he can snap up if and when arcadia goes into administration. absolutely, it would be fascinating, but we should also remember all the staff that are potentially affected with 13,000 jobs on the line. really good to talk to you this morning, kirsty mcgregor, the editor of draper's. a word on those 13,000 jobs, when philip green sold bhs, there would be concerns about the big gap in the pension fund, around a £350 million deficit in that fund. we are led to believe if the administration goes through today, any sale proceeds would go some way to plugging the gap in the pension fund, so whatever they make from selling these brands to would—be bidders would go to support that, and there is also the pension protection fund, a taxpayer backed fund that will help protect those pensioners in the group so

they should receive may be not all but the majority of what they are owed, but nonetheless absolutely fascinating, and it tells you quite a lot about the state of the high street right now when businesses are finding it so businessjust street right now when businesses are finding it so business just to open, never mind trade and make a profit. thank you, ben. cancer research scientists have raised concerns that advances in the field could be delayed by nearly 18 months due to the coronavirus pandemic. a survey of more than 200 scientists at the institute of cancer research found that research could be put back by up to six months because of reduced laboratory capacity. it claims other issues — such as charity funding being shifted to tackling covid—19 — may mean major advances are delayed by an average of 17 months, but says long—lasting damage can be avoided with an increase in government support or charity donations. french rescue teams have been searching for a british woman, who has gone missing

in the pyrenees. esther dingley was on a month long solo hiking trip through the mountain range. she was expected to end her hike on wednesday but has not been seen since. ms dingley has spent the last six years travelling around europe in a minivan with her partner and she was last in touch with him a week ago. criminal charges have been brought in new zealand over the deaths of 22 people in a volcanic eruption last year. the white island volcano erupted in december 2019, while tourists were visiting the site. new zealand's health and safety regulator said ten organisations and three individuals had failed to meet their obligations. argentine prosecutors are investigating diego maradona's doctor for possible manslaughter following the footballer‘s death four days ago. police have searched the house and private clinic of leopoldo luque in buenos aires

as they try to establish if there was negligence in maradona's treatment following surgery. the 60—year—old died of a heart attack at his home where he was recuperating. dr luque has not been charged and says he had done all he could to save the life of a friend. as we've been hearing, the latest data from the largest community coronavirus testing programme in england, react, has shown a 30% fall in infections nationally. professor paul elliott is the director of the react programme and chair in epidemiology and public health medicine at imperial college london. hejoins us now. good to have he joins us now. good to have you with us. before we go further, i wa nt to with us. before we go further, i want to clarify something with you so want to clarify something with you soiam want to clarify something with you so i am clear in my own mind. the infection rate has fallen by 30%. is this due to the second lockdown, or the tier system that went before

that, or is it a combination of both? it looks to be a bit of a combination of both because we saw the largest falls in the north of the largest falls in the north of the country, actually over 50%, and particularly in the north—west and north—east, where they have had restrictions, so we think that the lockdown has certainly been effective so far, clearly we are not through the whole of lockdown yet, and samples were collected up to last monday, one week ago, so we are still collecting samples all the way through the lockdown period. but, yes, 50% or more reduction in the north of the country, and actually levelling off, but not so much of a reduction, in the rest of the country. interesting, is it possible to bore down to the data to get any more detail as to why there is a difference in different parts of the country? clearly the north was at very high levels. i should stress we

are still at a high level. although it has come down, and that is really good news, by 30% or so overall, we are still at 1%, meaning one in every 100 people we test randomly has evidence of virus in a no sense throat swab. clearly that is still too high. —— in a nos and throat swab. in the north, the rates were much higher than that, over 2%, so it's a combination of local measures, lockdown, people paying more attention, and also the fact there have been stresses on the nhs. i think that has made people more aware. what have you find out about which groups of the population are more affected? we see some variations with people living in the most deprived areas have higher prevalence of stop those in very large households have higher prevalence, and also the asian community have higher prevalence. we have seen this quite consistently

through the data. we have been carrying out these surveys now since may, since the end of the first lockdown. why do you think that might be? maybe you didn't hear that question, i wondered why you thought there was higher prevalence amongst some of those communities you mentioned. i think it's a combination of what we might call, if you like, structural inequality, with people having to... if you live ina hard with people having to... if you live in a hard household there is more opportunity for social interaction within the household, people having to go to work. we do, for example, see also higher rates in people who work in the health care sector. it's a combination of all these things. what we need to do, as members of the public, is pay attention to the

public health message of social distancing, hand washing and face cover is because we know how the virus is transmitted, it's transmitted through social contact. how much confidence do you have in that, given the national lockdown ends on wednesday, so how confident are you that the tiered system that will come into play will keep the infection rate low, or lower? it's really important that we remain vigilant and it really is up to us as individuals, listening to the tier restrictions, because we know how the virus is transmitted, through social contact and interaction. it is a nasty virus and we have to do everything we can, not only to maintain levels but actually get it down because it is still too high, at 1%, one in every 100 people. as we go to random sections of the population, this isn'tjust

people who have symptoms, it includes people who are asymptomatic as well as symptomatic people. professor paul elliott, director of the react programme, and really good to talk to you and thank you for your time this morning. now it's time for a look at the weather with carol kirkwood. hello again. it's a fairly cloudy day for many of us today with some patchy rain sinking south, but behind that, what you'll find is it will brighten up quite nicely. we've got the cloud and patchy rain moving south across england and wales, at times it will be heavier across wales and south—west england, but we see brighter skies following on into northern england, through northern ireland and scotland, with just a few showers in the north and also down this north sea coastline. as we head on through the evening and overnight, we continue with a brisk wind down the north sea, blowing in some showers, a lot of clear skies as the rain gets into the channel islands, and then our next system brings some thick cloud and patchy rain and drizzle in from the west. tomorrow, that's how we start the day, a lot of clear skies,

a cold start, quite a brisk breeze along the north sea, and then in comes this cloud, moving steadily eastward through the course of the day. the sunniest conditions in parts of the south and east, also around morayshire and aberdeenshire, top temperatures of ten. hello this is bbc news. the headlines: the number of new coronavirus cases in england has fallen sharply since the second lockdown began with some areas down by 50%. some of the northern higher—prevalence regions have had higher drops than some of the midlands and the southern areas but overall we've seen a pretty substantial drop. the prime minister urges disgruntled conservative backbenchers to show "unity" and "resolve" ahead of a commons vote on changes to the tiers system in england tomorrow. ministers say the measures are necessary. we shouldn't stumble

at this last hurdle. we've had to take some very difficult decisions. we need to see this through and stick to the course for now. the arcadia retail chain is expected to go into administration today — putting 13,000 jobs on the high street at risk. cows m00. the biggest changes to english farming in more than half a century — as ministers publish post—brexit plans to phase out eu farming subsidies and reward enviromental work. sport and for a full round up, we have a report from the bbc sport centre. good morning... we will start with events yesterday from bahrain. romain grosjean, the formula one driver, lucky to be alive, after the worst crash in the sport in six years. his car hit a barrier at 140 mph and was immediately engulfed in flames, with the frenchman caught inside. formula one driverjules bhianci died back in 2014 from injuries

sustained in a race, leading to the introduction of the halo system which protects the driver's head, undoubtedly saving grosjean's life in this crash. here's our sports correspondentjoe wilson. the bahrain grand prix begins. 20 cars race, each with a halo — a titanium bar protecting the cockpit, protecting romain grosjean. and a big fire there! fla mes insta ntly surrounded the driver. that should not happen. it will be part of the investigation. but with medics attending, grosjean, hands burning on the metal, was able to force his own way out, an escape which seemed miraculous. grosjean was able later in hospital to reflect on how the car's improvements had saved his life. ijust wanted to say i am 0k, well, sort of 0k. thank you very much for all the messages.

i mean, i wasn't for the halo some years ago, but i think it's the greatest thing that was brought to formula one. without it, i wouldn't be able to speak to you today. at the circuit, the teams watched the replays. lewis hamilton tweeted that the crash was a reminder of the risk — the extreme danger that is still there. as soon as the grand prix resumed, another collision. a car upturned. lance stroll was the driver pulled out unharmed. a safety car finally led the racers home after another incident. lewis hamilton won but 20 drivers came to bahrain, 20 lived to drive again. joe wilson, bbc news. the brain injury associaion — headway — have criticised arsenal's decision to allow david luiz to play on following a sickening clash of heads with rauljimenez which left the wolves striker hospitalised. jiminez needed oxygen as the game was stopped for ten minutes. he suffered a fractured skull and has undergone successful surgery. luiz was bandaged up but carried on playing again before being taken off at half time.

arsenal, who lost the game 2—1, say they followed the rules around concussion. protocols dictate a player is immediately withdrawn and assesed. headway say football is not protecting it's players. a view echoed by alan shearer. football needs to get real, it needs to wake up. it needs to get serious. not next year, not next month, not next week. now. how on earth is he allowed to come back onto the pitch with a wound that is bleeding through the bandage, dripping down his face? we're talking about life or death here. and players‘ careers, career ending. it's just not acceptable. the fa will investigate a deleted social media post by manchester united striker edinson cavani, which contained a spanish phrase that is offensive in some contexts. he deleted it, once told how it could be seen in the uk. it's after he came on to score twice as united came from 2—0 down at southampton to win 3—2.

their eighth away win in a row. tottenham drew 0—0 at chelsea to go top of the league. after being knocked out of the scottish league cup, celtic fans gathered outside their stadium to protest against recent results. celtic have just two wins from ten and five defeats. fans threw missiles at the team and manager neil lennon as they left the ground, and clashed with police. celtic have condemed the protests and said the players were shaken. police scotland added that two officers were injured. tonight, the joint lowest ranked team left in the fa cup, marine, who play in the eighth tier on england, could be drawn against the likes of liverpool or manchester united when the third round draw takes place. they knocked out havant and waterlooville in extra time yesterday, a classic goal in the 120th minute from captain niall cummins — went for a header, and came off his back. the draw is on bbc one from 7pm. it doesn't matter, they all count

and they will be hoping for more of the same depending on who they get in the third round. what a story they are becoming. that's all the sport for now. lovely, see you later. new restrictions to combat the spread of coronavirus in wales will be announced by the first minister today. since the end of the recent 17—day lockdown the number of cases have begun to rise and hospital admissions remain high. indoor entertainment venues will close and new rules will be introduced for the hospitality industry on friday. 0ur wales correspondent tomos morgan has more. we know it will be based around restrictions on the hospitality sector, a sector that's already been hit very hard over this entire year, really, during the pandemic. it's thought, it's been rumoured, that the model could be may be based on the model could be may be based on the restriction seen on the toughest areas of scotland. so may be a

restriction and a bringing down of closing times, early in the evening. potentially a restriction on the sale of alcohol, as well. we will find out the detail at 12:15pm. there will also be a financial package in place to help that sector. but we know it will mostly be based on the hospitality sector today. they will be no restriction on people meeting up on the other things due to close will be cinemas although gyms essential and nonessential shops will remain open in the lead up to christmas. the bbc has seen new research that suggests long—term unemployment in wales could increase fourfold to an estimated 114,000 people, as a direct result of the covid—related economic crisis. the research, carried out for the programme bbc wales investigates, predicts that the number of people out of work for at least a year in wales could be much greater than during the 2008 financial crisis. wyre davies reports.

all that james has ever wanted to do is to fly and nearing the end of a two year pilot training course that he paid for himself with a £100,000 bank loan, the skies are empty and james knows his prospects of beginning a career in aviation now have been grounded. for most of us at the start, we didn't really realise how much of an impact the sort of pandemic would have had on the industry. the loan is bonded to my parents‘ house, so it means there is that added extra bit of pressure on top just to meet those repayments, just to make sure that, sort of, it doesn't affect my family as well as me. as james tried to find work, even shelf stacking in a supermarket, to help pay off his loan, the picture across the uk economy and particularly in wales is bleak. this is a water heater going to slovenia. this bridgend—based engineering company specialising in high—tech green energy products had a full order book at the start of the year. and then, of course, coronavirus came along and everything sort of stopped. we've had to cut staff

down to about 15 now. how difficult was it to let people go? that was very painful. um, you don't build up the team to then go and lay them off. there's already been a a1% increase in unemployment in wales this year. twice the rate of increase in england. and new research suggests that long—term unemployment next year in wales could increase four fold. it could go up to either between 29,000 or 67,000 people being long—term unemployed. so, a mid range of that is about 44,000. now, what that compares to is that kind of blows out of the water 2008 financial crisis in terms of long—term unemployment numbers. it takes us back to the early 1990s and the kind of recession then. the welsh government acknowledges the scale of the looming crisis but says it is investing millions injobs. no forecast has been rosy. we are confident that we have the plans, the policies,

the schemes in place, to, again, prevent the sort of devastating, devastating long—term scars that mass long—term unemployment can inflict on a country. crumbs of comfort for those sectors on which wales is particularly reliant, like tourism and hospitality and they're just struggling to stay afloat. many of these businesses say guidance from the welsh government was often too little, too late. i worked out that i'd lost over 200,000 that i would normally have had in income and i've furloughed over 80% of my staff, so everybody else was off. it was an absolute nightmare trying to make sure everything was still done because we were completely flat after 24—7just trying to stay on top of things. the welsh government says it's done all that it can, but many already—overstretched businesses won't survive. and with hundreds of millions of pounds needed to retrain, for the thousands who will lose theirjobs, the challenge is daunting. wyre davies, bbc news. so, how are businesses who normally rely on the festive trading period coping? well, we can speak now to steve hughson —

the ceo of the royal welsh agricultural society and who also sits on the welsh government visitor economy covid taskforce. welcome to bbc news. i want to ask you, first of all, what impact have the restrictions had on the events that you look after? well, behind me today, rebecca, you will see an empty showg round and today, rebecca, you will see an empty showground and today should be day one of the royal welsh winter fair, a two event and we should have over 35,000 people here. trade stands celebrating the best of welsh produce, welsh livestock are people buying presents you can't get on the high street and more than that, people coming together at this time of crisis. it is ever more relevant. the impact on us is huge. we have lost nearly 80% of our income this year and the event sector has been in restrictions from the start of this pandemic. as you said, some hospitality sectors have gone in and

out of restrictions and we are waiting to hear what the welsh government will announce today. for the event sector, we have never been able to trade at all since march, april, and we continue to look forward to an uncertain 2021. the early pa rt forward to an uncertain 2021. the early part of 2021, as we speak. help us with some figures. as well as your winter festival, you help us with some figures. as well as your winterfestival, you have had to cancel two other events this year. what impact has that had in terms of income and jobs? huge. we have worked really hard to protect thejobs in the have worked really hard to protect the jobs in the area. we employ on the jobs in the area. we employ on the showground over 30 people but that increases to over a couple of hundred during the event and we also have over 1000 stewards. the royal welsh show is the largest agricultural show in the uk and ta kes pla ce agricultural show in the uk and takes place over four days in agricultural show in the uk and takes place overfour days injuly, bringing together over 200,000 people on the showground. from all over the uk and across the world. it isn't just about agriculture, 60% of the people who come here are not from an agricultural background and we provide entertainment and

produce. a huge opportunity for people to taste and feel the best of wales. that didn't happen this year. we also have our festival, smallholding and countryside festival, in may. notjust that, the showground is festival, in may. notjust that, the showg round is an festival, in may. notjust that, the showground is an event destination. we are one of the biggest showgrounds in the uk, we have events showgrounds in the uk, we have eve nts fro m showgrounds in the uk, we have events from antique festivals to dog shows and rallies and the list goes on and on this site and this year none of those events have taken place. we have lost all of the income from those events and through the support of our members and others, we we hope will continue, it is challenging having lost over £5 million in our own income —— which we hope. we contribute over 50 million to the economy of wales. that is what you are talking about, it is the wider economy that has been badly affected by this pandemic. the welsh government says it is investing millions injobs. what are you hoping to hear from the first minister later today? well, look, today is all about tourism, leisure and hospitality and it is all about christmas and looking to

put packages in place. for the event sector, we need more support and a sector, we need more support and a sector specific package. we welcome the culture recovery fund, which has been administered at the moment. we are looking forward to the erf, the economic recovery fund which is to be announced linked to this current closure. for us, we operate outside of the welsh government's 21 day decision—making cycle. if we plan events for 2021 on the scale of the royal welsh show, we need to plan now. it is that uncertainty and inability to make clear decisions in the absence of real knowledge. i don't suppose anyone really knows. but we need to plan and we need security. if we can't hold a fully operational event in the early part of next year, we will need further support. like the whole of the event sector. it is notjust the showground, it sector. it is notjust the showg round, it is sector. it is notjust the showground, it is the theatres, the stadiums, the arenas. the event sector is very diverse. the whole sector is very diverse. the whole sector hasn't had any income at all this year and is looking at an

uncertain start to 2021. thank you so much forjoining us on bbc news. my so much forjoining us on bbc news. my pleasure, thank you very much. the scottish first minister, nicola stugeon is expected to announce a £100 million pound hardship fund to support low income families overwinter. as part of the scheme, families with children who are entitled to free school meals will receive a £100 payment. the money is coming from so—called "covid consequentials" — a share for the scottish government of the extra money being spent by the treasury. the snp leader will address her party's conference with more details later today. the amount of taxpayer money that farmers receive will be much more dependent on the contribution they make to the environment, under new plans by the government. it will mean traditional subsidies in england will be reduced from next year and payments to protect nature will be introduced. our environment correspondent roger harrabin reports. cows moo.

farming is a toughjob. and in parts of the uk, farmers are struggling to stay afloat. there, good boys, good boys. in sussex, martin is focused right now on a visit from the vet. come on, chaps. come on. it seems to have spooked some of the cattle. but the future of the countryside as a whole is far more worrying for livestock farmers like him. that's because for two decades, martin's farm has been kept in business thanks to grants from the european union. the system is frankly bizarre. the richer you are, the more land you own. the more land you own, the more taxpayers' money you get. but that is going to change. it's brexit that's driving the shift. soggy fields are great for wildlife, and the uk government says in future, taxpayers will reward farmers for bringing birds to the countryside and encouraging woodlands to soak up carbon emissions. so basically, martin will be

paid to help nature. but will the grants be enough to keep him in business? i think there's a very real concern throughout the industry that the money available to achieve the objectives of farming for more wildlife, is simply not going to be enough for us to deliver successfully, because delivering wildlife from a farm is an expensive business. it's been announced that farmers will lose half theirformer eu grants by 2024, and all of them by 2028. farmers who embrace the new policy and farm sustainably and make space for nature on their farms, and who want to improve their profitability, so invest in new equipment, they will all benefit from the new policy. there will be incentives for farming sustainably, grants to help space for nature, and grants as well to help farmers buy new equipment. some farmers may object, but the future of britain's

countryside will be fewer sheep and cattle, and more birds and trees. roger harrabin, bbc news, east sussex. let's get more now on the story that sir philip green's retail empire arcadia, is likely to call in the administrators — putting 13,000 jobs at risk. sources in the company — whose brands include topshop, burton and dorothy perkins — have told the bbc they don't expect a last—minute rescue deal. nina warhurst has been outside topshop in liverpool this morning. at around seven o'clock this morning some staff arrived here at topshop here in liverpool and gathered for a team huddle. i asked one of them if they were aware for the plans for the company, they said yes but didn't want to comment further, quite understandably. you can't underestimate the importance of the arcadia group for the high street. there will be very few of you watching who don't have an item of clothing from topshop, dorothy perkins, burton, and even few of you watching

who are older than the group. dorothy perkins more than a century old. but these businesses are on the brink of collapse. the administrators are probably being called in at lunchtime today, meaning they are looking at what is salvageable for the business. let's remind ourselves of the size of the arcadia group, we have topshop, dorothy perkins and miss selfridge among others. there was a major restructure last year, which meant they closed down international outlets but 13,000 jobs remain in the uk. despite the problems of the company, sir philip green, its owner, has an estimated personal wealth of more than £900 million. every empire has its day, but this is an extraordinary fall for the man once dubbed the king of the high street. brash, brave, brilliant. bully. whatever your view, sir philip green is undeniably one of the big beasts of british retail.

it's going to be about old—fashioned shopkeepers, old—fashioned operators, there's no more financialjinks, this is going to be about knowing your business. from miss selfridge to dorothy perkins, his clothing brands are on every high street. but it is topshop and its links with high fashion that's driven the group's success. it's just a label, isn't it? yeah, but it's the style of clothes! it's kate moss! yeah, it's kate moss! it's kate moss! everybody wants to be like kate moss! it's kate moss, she's gorgeous, man, she's stunning. it matters that much? beautiful figure, tall, beautiful. but it's just a label. it's kate moss! but it's the same thing as with designer clothes, why do they say you can spend £500 on an outfit? because you know this designer's designed it. and we're all so shallow in this day and age that we don't care. because it's got a label that says armani, gucci, whatever. and you think you might look like kate moss at the end of it? i'd hope so! laughter. british home stores, or bhs, made his name, and tarnished it. he bought the tired chain

for £200 million at the turn of the millennium but the good times weren't to last. it was sold forjust £1, 15 years later before going bust with a massive hole in the pension fund. really sad. i've been here 27 years. sir philip's anger was clear to see when he was questioned by mps. sir, do you mind not looking at me like that all the time? it's really disturbing. but he did agree to add hundreds of millions back to the pension pot. fashion comes, fashion goes. in recent years, his empire has struggled to keep up with cooler, digital rivals. so could this be the final chapter in the philip green saga? right, you're out of here. a six—year—old boy with brittle bones who captured the hearts of tv viewers when he shared his dreams ofjoining a space mission has received a special invitation from nasa. adam king appeared on the late,

late toy show, a special christmas edition of ireland's longest—running tv programme, and since making his debut his profile has rocketed. let's take a look. # rocketman.# ten, nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two, one. liftoff. we have liftoff. it's been a very, very emotional, overwhelming and humbling 48 hours in our lives. we have had contact from just some people who are outstanding in theirfields in the world in terms of space travel. out of the world. out of the world, yeah. # i'm a rocketman.# it'sa bumpy landing. it'sa bumpy landing!

i was proud that adam was on it. i thought he was really good. i think it was the best toy show there has ever been. i have landed, i have landed safely, captain, reporting for duty. he doesn't wake up in the morning and try to be inspirational, hejust is who he is. he has a fantastic personality and he's got a really positive attitude about life. would you have liked to have been an astronaut at some stage? well, i can't be an astronaut because i have brittle bones. i enjoyed it really much. it was really full of excitement. we're absolutely over the moon. we love adam to bits. he is a wonderful child. the world is seeing what we are seeing and everyone has seen in adam since the moment he was born. he is a wonderful kid. what you want to be when you grow up? capcom in nasa. it's captain of ground control. it's the best—paying job in nasa, other than an astronaut. all about the money, is it?

# and i think it's going to be a long, long time.# when you are a capcom, who are you sending into space? my brother, danny. because danny knows a load about space. i saw you on the late late toy show and i loved your smile and spirit and determination and especially your love of space. like you said, there are a lot of cool things you can do at nasa, like being a capcom that you don't have to be an astronaut to do. i would love to see at nasa someday but whatever you do, i wish you all the best. keep dreaming big and thank you for inspiring us all. one of the things that heartens me from it is people like that, reaching out to ourfamily and reaching out to our little guy here, i think it reminds mejust that people like that see the importance of children having a dream and holding onto that dream and pursuing it.

we really are grateful to them and we would like to say thanks to all of them. # and i think it's going to be a long, long time.# the whole thing has been humbling and overwhelming but it's always very heartening and warming to hear it and to feel the response from people in the community and we have had such a wonderful response from the people of east cork and the wider community of ireland. and the wider community of ireland as well and i think adam might have to come to terms with the fact now that he is part of a more global community now, aren't you, adam? yeah. now it's time for a look at the weather with carol kirkwood. hello, again. the weather this week is looking a bit more changeable than many of us had at the weekend. what we have today, though, is a lot of cloud, once again. patchy rain, which is sinking steadily south and behind that band of rain, we will see a return to some brighter skies. it is this cold front that is producing the rain and watch how the isobars veer towards more

of a northerly. a brisk wind down the north sea coastline and across the north and west of scotland. but a lot of cloud ahead of the weather front eventually we see the patchy rain arrive and the rain heavy at times across wales and south—west england. but brighter skies for northern ireland, northern england and scotland, apart from a few showers coming down the north sea coastline. temperatures 6—11 degrees. through this evening and overnight, eventually that band of cloud and rain get into the channel islands. behind, a lot of clear skies. brisk wind down the north sea coast lines. still with us, some showers here. you can already see the next system coming in from the west, introducing thicker cloud and some patchy light rain and drizzle. in western areas, it's not going to be as cold as it will be across central and eastern parts of the uk. tomorrow, that cold air will be in place, but gradually it will be usurped by milder air coming in from the atlantic, represented by the yellows. to put that in graphics, a lot of sunshine to start the day for central and eastern areas. it will be cold. especially if you are exposed

to the northerly breeze. but all this cloud and patchy light rain and drizzle will be moving east through the course of the day. the sunnier skies for the longest will be the murray firth, aberdeenshire and parts of central and south—eastern england. temperatures 6—10 degrees. as we move through tuesday evening and overnight into wednesday, this next front comes in from the north—west, sinking south. one look at those isobars tells you the wind will strengthen strengthen in the north west. here is the weather front sinking south. with its cloud and increasingly patchy and light rain. behind it, brighter skies, some sunshine, they went picking up behind it, brighter skies, some sunshine, the wind picking up in the north—west and a plethora of showers in northern and western scotland, some getting into northern ireland. snow in the highlands above about 300 metres. it will feel cold in the north and that theme continues through thursday and friday with rain at times. some could see some snow mostly

in the hills in the west. this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. the number of new coronavirus cases in england has fallen sharply since the second lockdown began, with some areas down by 50%. some of the northern higher—prevalence regions have had higher drops than some of the midlands and the southern areas but overall we've seen a pretty substantial drop. the prime minister urges disgruntled conservative backbenchers to show "unity" and "resolve" ahead of a commons vote on changes to the tiers system in england tomorrow. ministers say the measures are necessary. we shouldn't stumble at this last hurdle. we've had to take some very difficult decisions. we need to see this through and stick to the course for now.