the effectiveness of lockdown — coronavirus infections in england have fallen by about a third. some of the worst—hit areas see the biggest improvements, but experts warn the figures are still too high. still at 1%, which means one in 100 people that we test randomly has evidence of virus on a nose and throat swab. so clearly that's still too high. we'll be getting all the latest analysis on what the data shows. also this lunchtime... wales faces tougher new restrictions. pubs across the country will be banned from selling alcohol in the run up to christmas. borisjohnson calls for his mps to show "unity and resolve" as he tries to head off a rebellion over his new tier system in england. thousands ofjobs at risk, as sir philip green's retail empire — which includes topshop,

burton and dorothy perkins — verges on collapse. hello, is thatjeffrey? it's michael sheen here. and as a campaign is launched to combat loneliness, we'll be talking to actor michael sheen about how lockdown has made it an even bigger issue. and coming up on bbc news... the fallout to one of the most dramatic scenes in recent formula 1 history, as romain grosjean escapes withjust minor injuries at the bahrain grand prix. good afternoon and welcome to bbc news at one. coronavirus infections in england have fallen by about a third over lockdown, according to a major study. some of the worst—hit areas saw

the biggest improvements, but, despite this progress, cases remained relatively high. the study was carried out by imperial college london and ipsos mori. it says the virus‘s rate of reproduction is below one, meaning the epidemic is shrinking. in wales, new restrictions mean pubs and bars are to be banned from selling alcohol in the run up to christmas. we'll have more on this on the programme a little later, but this all comes as the pharmaceutical company moderna says it's filing requests for its covid—19 vaccine to be authorised for use in the united states and europe, as further promising details have been given about its efficacy. our health correspondent anna collinson reports. lockdown has been described as a blunt instrument. it can damage the economy, mental health. but new research suggests england's most recent one has dented the epidemic. during november's lockdown, 100,000 people from different backgrounds we re people from different backgrounds were tested for covid—19, whether

they had symptoms or not. this is they had symptoms or not. this is the best way to get an idea of how prevalent the virus is and gives us the most up—to—date picture of what's going on. the react study found between the end of october and middle of november, cases of coronavirus fell by 30%. and infections fell by more than half in the north—west and north—east, areas with some of the highest numbers of cases. the findings suggest cases are now highest in the east and west midlands. we are still at 196, which means one in 100 people but we test randomly has evidence of virus on a nose and throat swab, so clearly thatis nose and throat swab, so clearly that is still too high. and in the north, the rates were much higher than that. they were over 2%. north, the rates were much higher than that. they were over 296. the r number tells us how many people one infected person may pass the virus on to. the react study estimates it has fallen to 0.88, meaning the epidemic is shrinking. as the graph

shows, it is the first time it has happened since september. but a great deal of caution accompanies these positive findings. despite clear improvements, cases remain high and there is always a lag between falling infection is translating into hospitalisations and deaths. the data suggests 0ctober‘s tier system and lockdown helped curb infections in some parts, but as we approach a challenging time of year for the health service, many are nervous about the changing rules in coming weeks. there is potential for the relaxation of the lockdown restrictions over christmas to see a real push of cases into early january, and sadly we will see deaths as a result of that. so i appreciate why the government are doing this in terms of giving people the choice about how they want to behave with their families over christmas, but i would really urge people to be very cautious. there is potential good news about one of the vaccines the uk has lined up to

tackle covid. the moderna file for regulatory approval in the us and europe. the jab is said to be more than 94% effective, but even if one vaccine is approved soon, it will be months before they start taking effect. for now, our behaviour will be key in keeping the virus at bay. anna collinson, bbc news. in the past hour wales's first minister has announced that all pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes across wales will not be able to serve alcohol and must close by 6pm from friday. the new measures will be in place until at least 17th december and will be reviewed every three weeks after that. 0ur wales correspondent tomos morgan reports. since march, pryzm, ca rd iff's largest nightclub, has been open for only six days. with a capacity for 3000 usually, current restrictions, table service and social distancing, has limited the venue to just 240. but from friday, alcohol will be banned from being sold in venues across wales, and hospitality will have to shut

at 6pm, which means this place will have to close again. it's a lot of hard work to get everything right, train the staff, get the building sorted out, make it safe and secure for our customers to enjoy. so, yeah, mega—frustrating, and obviously it's costly and we've had no support from the government for nightclubs specifically. so, yeah, it's a major kick in the teeth, really. infection rates, and more importantly, the positivity rate of coronavirus in wales has risen over the past week or so, and in many areas of south wales, its higher now than they were before the recent firebreak lockdown. which has led to the welsh government implementing further restrictions, and another financial package to support the industries affected. we will provide the most generous package of financial assistance anywhere in the united kingdom. this will include £180 million

of new help specifically for tourism, leisure and hospitality businesses, and that's in addition to the various support schemes available from the uk government. along with hospitality, cinemas and indoor entertainment will also have to close in an effort to curb transmission rates. these latest set of restrictions coming into force on friday will be reviewed every three weeks. but with an agreement already in place between the devolved nations of the uk over easing between household mixing over the festive period, it seems unlikely that these latest set of measures in wales will be eased before christmas. tomos morgan, bbc news, cardiff. borisjohnson has called for his mps to show "unity and resolve" as he hopes to head off a conservative rebellion over plans to introduce a three tier system of coronavirus restrictions in england. later today he will publish an official impact assessment

of the measures which will include the economic, social and health costs of the tiers. 0ur political correspondent chris mason reports. the bleak reality of england's second lockdown. it is due to end on wednesday, but there are concerns the tiered system of restrictions that will come next will be painful too. some conservative backbenchers are making the government work hard for their support. it's quite right that parliament does its oversight role, it scrutinises what is being put forward to see whether we can advance the proposal is to a better place. a public that understands and respects the rules is more likely to follow them, and compliance is so important if you want to get through this. a quick reminder of the three tiers coming in england. the lightest tier, tier 1, will only apply in cornwall, the isle of wight and the isles of scilly. 32 million people will be in tier 2, where meeting inside each other‘s homes

will be banned. and 23 million people will be in tier 3, where restau ra nts a nd people will be in tier 3, where restaurants and pubs among other places will have to remain closed. but shops, hairdressers and gyms will reopen across england. we shouldn't stumble at this last hurdle. we have had to take some very difficult decisions. we need to see this through and stick to the course for now, but we will be giving parliament a say on the review of these measures later in january. i am currently in the re sta u re nt january. i am currently in the restaurant at the minute and you can see perspex screens between each table. labour leader keir starmer has been on a virtual visit to a restau ra nt has been on a virtual visit to a restaurant in what will be tier 3 manchester. here we are, with the same old same old, which is restrictions being put in place, but the financial package not being ready to go with it. it is exactly the same. 0ne ready to go with it. it is exactly the same. one of my main criticisms of this government is that they have been very slow in their decision—making but they are not learning lessons. in the end, though, it is highly likely labour

will back the government. the prime minister will get his way, this new system of tiered restrictions in england will come into force. but there is deep restlessness among many conservative backbenchers, real worry about the hospitality industry, deep concern about the wider economic devastation, and fears about how long this squeeze on oui’ fears about how long this squeeze on our liberties could last. the government has clocked that and is seeking to reassure. so, the debate in here will be passionate, even if the outcome won't be a surprise. chris mason, bbc news, at westminster. the mass testing of students for covid—19, so they can go home as safely as possible for the christmas break, is beginning at many universities across the uk today. if they test negative, many students will leave university in the "travel window" starting on thursday. 0ur education correspondent dan johnson reports. two of these tests three days apart, then 2k hours to make it home for christmas — that's the safest route on offer

ahead of the holidays, and here in east london these students are helping manage the tests as well as taking them. i think this is the safest way of doing it. i think by allowing all students and staff to be tested, we can ensure that we keep the r rate down and people can go home feeling confident. you've got to balance the risk and thisjust minimises it that little bit more. so, yeah, iwould be happier knowing that i got the two negatives to go home and see my parents. a positive result will mean confirmation with a lab test then isolation. we are very confident that we can test everybody. but support is being promised. the well—being advisers will contact the students, make sure they're 0k, offer them emotional support. and i suppose the important thing about doing it now is that there is a ten day window, if somebody does test positive, so they can go back

to their families and loved ones. still get home in time for christmas? yes, absolutely. it's a huge challenge getting this in place at every university with enough tests available for all students and the results being delivered on time quickly enough so that they can all get home as safely as possible. but this is all voluntary, so the question will be — how many students will actually come forward? in scotland, st andrew's started testing on saturday and students are already getting results. it didn't feel as bad as i expected it to. i had heard some stories about it being really uncomfortable but it was actually pretty all right. obviously it is really important for many of them to get back and see families and loved ones during the winter break. we want to do all that we can to make sure that that's possible for them but we want them to do so in a safe a way as possible, so in as safe a way as possible, and that is why this testing centre is so important. some lecturers have warned this travel window could be chaotic after a term that has been so tough

for staff as well as students. people feel a bit up and down. i think they are a bit worried about going home to places where the restrictions are higher. i think especially when people have had such little opportunity to mix in st andrews, i think going home and seeing their family is something that people are quite looking forward to. it is kind of awesome that we can still have some kind of normality and some kind of family time. especially if all the kids are away at uni, it is nice to be home and just to be home and get cooked for and get your washing done and stuff. good to know some priorities haven't changed despite the pandemic. dan johnson, bbc news. sir philip green's retail empire arcadia is likely to call in administrators today, putting 13,000 jobs at risk. sources at the company — which owns retailers including topshop, burton and dorothy perkins — say they don't expect a last—minute rescue deal. our business correspondent emma simpson reports. in liverpool, shop workers arrive early, wondering what the future holds. the arcadia brand is run so

many high streets and town centres, like here in hull and cheshire, and lockdowns have hit this business hard, but it was failing long before the pandemic. topshop, though, which was the jewel in the crown, has struggled to survive against disruptors like struggled to survive against disru ptors like online struggled to survive against disruptors like online boo—hoo group, and on the high street, primark have come in with different offers, more value lead office and a better conversation with the consumer of today. 0vershadowed by online rivals with boo—hoo already snapping up other failed online rivals with boo—hoo already snapping up otherfailed high street brands. could topshop soon be next? from what we are hearing there is interest in these brands and if the group goes into administration today there will be interested parties interested in buying up the brands but some of the interested parties may not necessarily want those stores. part of the problem arcadia have had is stores have not been profitable and they have not been able to get out of the long leases they are signed up to. sir philip green is in monaco, but there was no

sign of him today on his superyacht. he made his fortune from retail, but he tarnished his reputation. hauled in front of mps to fix the huge hole in the bhs pension schemes after it collapsed. it is resolvable, sortable, we will sort it, we will find a solution, and i want to give an assurance to 20,000 pensioners, i am there to sort this. but will he do the same for the arcadia pension scheme and its £350 million deficit? eithersir scheme and its £350 million deficit? either sir philip puts his hand in his pocket and writes a big trick for him, or they stay in the government lifeboat of the protection fund and they will get compensation representing not their full pension, but the majority of it. it all looks pretty festive, but there will be little to celebrate this christmas for the 13,000 or so workers. you can this christmas for the 13,000 or so workers. you can see some this christmas for the 13,000 or so workers. you can see some of them are in the stores today getting

ready for the reopening stop so many retailjobs ready for the reopening stop so many retail jobs have already ready for the reopening stop so many retailjobs have already been lost, but this will be the biggest failure yet, and down the high street it could have wider implications. debenhams is caught up in this too. debenhams is caught up in this too. debenhams and arcadia are intertwined because arcadia is the biggest concession partner inside debenhams was up as things stood last weekjd sports was closing in ona last weekjd sports was closing in on a deal to acquire debenhams but now it is now in doubt given the arcadia ownership question. mike ashley has been after debenhams for a long time and let's see, he is probably the last man standing. covid is accelerating the changes on our high streets, and it a turbulent end to the year. emma simpson, bbc news. our top story this lunchtime... the effectiveness of lockdown: coronavirus infections in england have fallen by about a third. and still to come — fewer cows, more trees, meadows and wetlands, as the government outlines its plans

for the future of england's countryside after brexit. coming up on bbc news... fresh calls for concussion substitutes to be introduced in football after a collision of heads sees one player hospitalised with a fractured skull and the other allowed to play on. back in march, italy was seen as being the global epicentre of the pandemic as cases and deaths there soared ahead of other european countries. after a strict lockdown, infection rates and the numbers of new cases fell sharply. but now the country is in the grip of a second wave. mark lowen has been to see how calabria — one of italy's poorest regions, which has long been beset by mafia corruption — is coping under the pressure. the resuscitation of italy's nightmare. we were shown the carnage of a pandemic they thought they were beating.

but the second wave has hit harder than the first, says dr demetrio labate. and here in the south, they're struggling to cope. this is calabria, italy's — and one of western europe's — poorest regions. intensive care numbers aren't yet out of control, but the country's weakest health care system is on red alert. translation: my staff are truly heroes on the front line and giving it their all. we're fighting this like lions, so as not to keel over. if cases continue to rise, it'll be a disaster for the whole of italy, and not just for us. this ward can take 18 people. there were 12 patients here until about an hour ago, when one of them died. beds filling up, a shortage of staff. italy thought it had left these horrible scenes behind. but once again, it's been caught on the back foot with the second wave. and this time it's not

just the wealthy north that's been overwhelmed, but here, too, in the country's most impoverished corner. italy's southern toe has been overtaken and plundered by its mafia, the ‘ndrangheta, infiltrating health care. looted by criminals, indebted hospitals were abandoned. so this was one of the closed hospitals. a doctor who exposed corruption five years ago, says he was silenced. translation: our finances were a mess. we couldn't pay creditors and there were fake bills. so even with fewer covid cases, we've gone into meltdown as the mafia got rich. we now have no hospitals, no health care system. we're in an emergency. just days ago, a police operation arrested a top local politician for laundering money through pharmacies in exchange for mafia support. the ‘ndrangheta's tentacles a re everywhere.

when this award—winning chef refused to pay extortion money 12 years ago, he was threatened and customers stayed away. now, covid lockdown has again emptied his restaurant — history repeating itself in more ways than one under me. translation: the 'ndrangheta and covid are both pandemics. we'll destroy the virus with a vaccine, but the fight against the mafia will take longer. for now, my heart cannot see the light in this darkness. but we will rise up and defeat both. calabria is battling to pull through. but in this scarred region, the virus has exposed its fragile heart. mark lowen, bbc news, calabria, southern italy. the leading infectious disease expert in the us, anthony fauci, has warned that there could be a "surge upon a surge" in coronavirus cases after the thanksgiving holiday. millions of people ignored medical advice and travelled home

for the celebration. 205,000 cases were recorded in the country on friday. plans to help low income familes will be unveiled by snp leader nicola sturgeon when she address the snp's annual conference later this afternoon. our political correspondent nick eardley is in glasgow. what are we expecting to hear? the backdrop to so much of scottish politics just now is a series of polls which suggest a big increase in support for scottish independence. nicola sturgeon was saying this weekend that she wants to hold another referendum in the early years of the next scottish parliament if, as looks likely, she retains power in may. that has led to some criticism from opposition parties who say in the middle of a pandemic focusing on the constitution is a distraction. have a listen to the first minister on bbc breakfast this morning. my first, last, and in—between focus right now is on the pandemic. i spend all of my energies on that,

and i think even my worst critic would have to concede that is the case. and that will continue to be the case for as long as is required. i do think for scotland, having the ability to build a country that we want, not one in the image of borisjohnson and his brexiteers, and having all the powers and tools at our disposal to do that, is a really important question for us. the first minister is going to announce a £100 million programme this afternoon designed to help disadvantaged families through the winter months. it will include a £100 grant for many of them. policies like that are in part designed to draw a contrast with westminster, to say we can do things differently if we have the power. the treasury can turn around and say a lot of this is coming from emergency funding that can only happen as part of the uk. it is worth remembering as well that boris johnson has said he won't to grant

permission for another referendum, as nicola sturgeon wants, even if the snp win the election in may. it was also interesting this morning that ms sturgeon was refusing to rule out legislation for a new referendum and seeing if the uk government challenges it in the courts. thank you very much. more trees, meadows and wetlands — and fewer sheep and cows — that is the government's vision for the future of england's countryside once the post—brexit transition period ends on the 31st of december. the seven—year plan will phase out subsidies to farmers based on how much land they own. instead, they'll be paid for such things as preventing floods, planting woods and helping wildlife. our environment analyst roger harrabin reports. farming is a toughjob. and in parts of the uk, farmers are struggling to stay afloat. good boys, good boys. in sussex, martin hole is focused right now on a visit from the vet. come on, chaps. come on.

it seems to have spooked some of the cattle. but the future of the countryside as a whole is far more worrying for livestock farmers like him. that's because, for two decades, martin's farm has been kept in business thanks to grants from the european union. the system is frankly bizarre. the richer you are, the more land you own. the more land you own, the more taxpayer's money you get, but that is going to change. it's brexit that's driving the shift. soggy fields are great for wildlife and the uk government says in future taxpayers will reward farmers for bringing birds to the countryside and encouraging woodlands to soak up carbon emissions. so basically martin will be paid to help nature. but will the grants be enough to keep him in business? i think there is a very real concern throughout the industry that the money available to achieve

the objectives of farming for more wildlife is simply not going to be enough for us to deliver successfully because delivering wildlife from a farm is an expensive business. it has been announced that farmers will lose half their former eu grants by 2024 and all of them by 2028. farmers who embrace the new policy and farm sustainably and make space for nature on their farms and who want to improve their profitability so invest in new equipment, they will all benefit from the new policy. there will be incentives for farming sustainably, grants to help space for nature, and grants as well to help farmers buy new equipment. some farmers may object but the future of britain's countryside will be fewer sheep and cattle and more birds and trees. roger harrabin, bbc news, east sussex.

almost 300,000 people in the uk — including 120,000 children — have been plunged into poverty as a result of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. that's according to analysis by a free market think tank. the legatum institute also said an additional 700,000 people had been prevented from falling into poverty by the chancellor's temporary £20—a—week boost to universal credit, introduced in april to help claimants cope with the extra costs of the pandemic. the singer rita ora has apologised for holding a 30th birthday party celebration at a restaurant in west london on saturday with a group of friends in breach of coronavirus restrictions. posting on instagram, the singer described it as an "inexcusable error ofjudgement". the metropolitan police confirmed that they were called to the casa cruz restaurant in notting hill to investigate a potential breach of covid regulations and officers were seen this morning at the venue of the party. with millions of people staying at home throughout the lockdowns, loneliness has been a growing issue in the uk.

a new initiative, set up by the jo cox foundation, is urging people to contact those who might be living on their own or shielding. one of the celebrities who supports the campaign is actor michael sheen, who joins us now. good to see you. loneliness is nothing new, sadly, but this christmas is going to be like no other. well, it has been a year like no other, hasn't it? so certainly christmas won't be any different. it isa christmas won't be any different. it is a difficult period of time for a lot of people in what we would call normal circumstances but it is going to be really challenging this year. i know we have got hopeful signs now because of the positive news around the vaccines that may be on the way but we have still got some cold and dark months to get through first. so this christmas together campaign is asking people to do what they can to try and make sure that people don't feel alone over christmas and particularly on christmas day. you can help in two ways. one is to reach out to someone you think might

like to hear from you over christmas. we all know someone, a neighbour who might be on their own or shielding, a family member you haven't been in touch in for a while. have a call, have a chat. i know a lot of people are doing christmas games online, my family are doing that, maybe invite someone into that too can be included. or if it is an option, go meet up and go for a walk locally if that is option. you can be matched with someone who would really appreciate feeling a connection with someone through the nhs volunteer responder programme for people in england. you can go to the website. if you are in wales, scotland or northern ireland, you can also get the information on how you can volunteer in your area as well. you have been hitting the phone yourself? yes, i had a fantastic conversation yesterday with a gentleman, geoffrey, 79 years

old. i'm not sure who enjoyed the conversation more, me or him. he told me some fantastic stories about his life and around the club that he used to go to with his wife, he met his wife there 56 years ago, i think. they used to go dancing there every saturday night. his wife sadly passed away just over every saturday night. his wife sadly passed awayjust over a year ago and he was talking about how he was watching dancing with the stars on the weekend and the memories of his wife and the years that they spent together and the dancing and how much they enjoyed watching the programme together came flooding back. he said that he has were rolling down his face and his little dog cut badger came and licked that tea rs of dog cut badger came and licked that tears of his face which was a touching story. jeffrey is feeling very well because of his loss and there are a lot of people out there who are feeling incredibly anxious, i think, about the prospect of being on their own over this christmas

period. if we can just try and keep in our minds, when everything else is going on over christmas, i know it is busy for everyone, just to reach out. you really can change someone's outlook and really make their christmas by connecting with them. really good to talk to you. thank you very much forjoining us. thank you very much forjoining us. thank you. a group of thieves have been caught on camera stealing more than 300 christmas trees from an outdoor store in south london. the trees were stolen from pines and needles in wimbledon on friday. shop ownerjosh lyle said he was "sickened" by the theft of more than £3,000 worth of stock. the met police, who are investigating the theft, said they have not yet arrrested anyone. i wonder if special branch are involved. time for a look at the weather. here's chris fawkes. very good. since this morning, we

have seen rain pushed down from