tonight at ten, a stark warning from the prime minister — the uk should prepare itself for no post—brexit trade deal with the eu. despite months of attempting to get a deal, borisjohnson said there was now a strong possibility that talks would fail. i stand ready to talk to anybody, ourfriends and partners in the eu, whenever they want. at the moment i have to tell you, in all candour, the treaty‘s not there yet. for many uk businesses, with just three weeks to go before the new arrangements, the uncertainty is overwhelming. it's really hard, because all the time there's that feeling, like, are we doing the right thing, is there something more we should be doing than what we are doing, are we missing out on something, are we going to be ready? we'll be asking how the prime minister's blunt assessment is going down in brussels. also tonight...

secondary school children in parts of england with rising coronavirus cases are being urged to get tested. two of the babies who died at a scandal—hit nhs trust — a review finds some mothers were blamed for their babies dying. a special report by george alagiah on the economic impact of covid—19 on some of the world's poorest countries. and hollywood star viola davis tells us about her new role as the pioneering blues singer, ma rainey. coming up in sport on bbc news, arsenal make it six from six in the europa league group stage, helped by this mohamed elneny wonder strike against dundalk. good evening. after ten months of trade

negotiations with the eu, the prime minister has said this evening that there's a strong possibility of no agreement on a post—brexit deal. he met the european commission president ursula von der leyen last night, but failed to break the deadlock. both sides admitted that they remained far apart, but agreed that talks would continue until sunday. a decision will then be made on whether or not the discussions are worth continuing. borisjohnson said he'd informed the cabinet that the deal — as it stood — wasn't right for the uk. here's our political editor laura kuenssberg. is he ready to walk out of the eu system without a deal in place? there are plenty of other foreign leaders to greet. boris johnson's guest today, the crown prince of abu dhabi. we're not allowed to shake hands. the prime minister cannot shake hands with him. with only four days to go he's warned tonight there will be nothing to shake on with the eu. reporter: is it all over, prime minister? there's now a strong possibility — strong possibility — that we will have a solution

that is much more like an australian relationship with the eu than a canadian relationship with the eu. that doesn't mean it's a bad thing. there are plenty of ways, as i've said, that we can turn to the advantage of both sides. a relationship like australia really means no deal and maybe massive disruption. under the eu's emergency plans, out today, uk transport could only move around the continent if it sticks to european rules, even though sharing regulations is at the centre of the clash in the talks. some firms are already fed up. alcaline transport run 200 trailers out of kent with sites across europe and have even invested in a couple of helicopters to keep things moving, spending more than £3 million trying to keep up with what might happen. it's been going on for solid three years. they keep changing the goalposts. every time they do that we are

losing 200,000, 300,000, and we go on and off, on and off. that's really frustrating. you don't know which way you're heading. we're just flying blind at the moment, so it isn't going to make any difference whatever the concession is going to be — it is still going to be a complete nightmare, and we are the ones who are going to suffer. downing street wonders whether this crowd will budge. eu leaders getting together in brussels don't want the uk to keep the benefits of europe's huge market, if the uk won't stick to their rules, but if neither side can compromise it's a failure for both. no one understates the challenges that lie ahead. i am a bit more gloomy today. as far as i can hear, there is no progress. i think a no deal would not be a good thing but a bad deal would be even worse. the eu chief has to corral 27 countries, and no 10, and decide whether to pull the plug on sunday. we are willing to grant access to the single market

to our british friends. it's the largest single market in the world. but the conditions have to be fair. they have to be fair for our workers and companies and this fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far. the negotiators are back in the room, and almost any kind of deal is nearly a dead cert to pass through parliament. but with an agreement in doubt, the opposition leader who nearly certainly would vote for it, urged the prime minister to compromise to get there. we must have a strategy for overcoming this. if you're going to trade with another country you have got to agree the terms of that trade. most people would say, "get round the table, "use the time you have got between now and sunday and come back with a deal you promised." there have even been conversations about mps approving a deal in the dead days between christmas and new year if one can be done but itjust doesn't feel that's the way things are going. of course, both sides do indulge

in spin but if the chances of an agreement were measured by the mood it would be low and gloomy right now. having left the club already, the uk is not in the room tonight in brussels but the leaders there still have the power to change the outcome, just as borisjohnson does at home. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. and our europe editor katya adler is in brussels for us. how are the prime minister's word's going down there? well, on a practical level the eu absolutely agrees with the prime minister. the big changes coming on the 1st of january, deal or no deal. that will affect all of our lives and the eu has been telling european businesses to prepare for quite some time, but i think you are probably referring to the really clear sense of pessimism that the prime minister expects about the possibility of reaching a deal, and there he is

matched 100% with the mood amongst eu leaders. we had the swedish prime minister using the word gloomy when he came into his summit today. no deal, two very small words, that are going to have a massive impact. there is a feeling here that reality could be about to bite. in the eu alone it's thought that 700,000 jobs could be at risk of no deal. but in the end of the prime minister's words today don't come as any surprise to eu leaders. no shock, no surprise, they don't actually change anything in the negotiations. they continued here in brussels today. there are still big sticking point between the sides we are told on the three main issues, fish, competition regulations, and how to govern an eventual deal, and we heard from ursula von der leyen, the european president that a decision will be reached on saturday but we don't know what the deal will become a deal, no deal, or let'sjust keep

talking a little while longer —— reached on sunday. catcher adler, oui’ reached on sunday. catcher adler, our europe editor, thank you. well, for businesses this is a period of tremendous uncertainty. the brexit transition period, during which the uk has remained in line with eu rules, ends in just three weeks' time — and, as we heard, hopes of a deal are now very much hanging in the balance. our business editor simonjack reports. the branding is british, the customers are all over the eu. 50% of everything produced at this factory in worthing heads for europe. the lack of progress on a deal is making the owner and her customers very nervous. it's really stressful. it's really hard, because all the time there's that feeling, like, you know, are we doing the right thing? is there something that we should be doing more than what we are doing? our customers are asking us all the time what's going to happen, what's going on? they want reassurances and certainties from us. they are asking us questions that we can't give them answers to as well, which makes it so difficult, and yeah, we have got a few customers who are actually holding off on placing really big orders with us and contracts and things

because they want to know the outcome and what is going to happen. how's it going? so nervous, in fact, her business partner was in spain today, looking at new premises to limit any damage a no deal might bring. a couple of warehouses. there is one behind which is 8000 square feet. it'sjust a shell. we would be able to put the protein bars and the porridge inside. obviously this is a plan b, but it's a good plan b option. the uk economy is not well—placed to take another shock. in october it grewjust 0.4%. it's on course for the worst downturn in over 300 years. 0n perhaps the key issue, which trade rules do the two sides play by and what happens when they disagree, businesses think very differently to politicians. many businesses see it like this. 0n the one hand, a deal where if the rule books diverged over time tariffs might be applied, not ideal. 0n the other hand, don't do a deal and see swingeing tariffs imposed in three weeks' time on top of new border procedures, a ports

crisis and a covid—ravaged economy. that, for many, is the perfect storm. that is why business leaders are so desperate for a deal. look, my message to the government is sovereignty is important and we trust the prime minister in putting that right at the heart of his negotiations, but a deal is a huge prize for britain. no deal is a huge price for britain. let's strain every sinew to get that deal by sunday. the clock is ticking. time is desperately short. 0n the ist of january 2021... ..businesses that deal with europe... ..will have to follow new rules. the government insists any deal is not just for christmas but for keeps and we need the best long—term outcome, but as we approach the edge most businesses would say no deal is not it. simon jack, bbc news. so, if the transition period does end on the 31st december without a trade deal — it will mean changes for our every day lives. here's our deputy political

editor, vicki young. trade deals make things run more smoothly for businesses. since leaving the eu, britain has agreed dozens of them, but the one that's arguably the most important of all has run into trouble. for decades, the uk and the rest of the european union have bought and sold goods across borders without checks or taxes, known as tariffs. but if there's no deal, then companies will have to operate under rules set by the world trade organization. that means that most of the food imported to the uk from the eu would attract an extra tax. the british retail consortium has calculated that it will mean 48% on beef mince, 16% on cucumbers and 57% on cheddar cheese. when it comes to exports from the uk to the eu, it will mean a tariff of 10% on cars and 35% on dairy products.

both sides are putting measures in place to reduce disruption from the start of january. in key areas such as transport, the eu said today that it would allow things to carry on broadly as they are, but only if the uk continue to follow existing rules on standards. and today, the eu has outlined temporary measures for areas other than trade. so, on aviation, they're saying that, for six months, uk planes can still fly to the eu, but they have to go to a single destination and then return. existing safety certificates would continue to be valid. and on fishing, they're saying that both sides should continue to access each other‘s waters for up to one year, but the uk would have to agree all of this. and there are other aspects of our relationship, including financial services and data sharing, that also need to be ironed out. this won't necessarily involve a negotiation.

many things are changing, whether there's a trade deal or not. we'll no longer be able to move freely between the uk and the eu, to live and work. when it comes to holidays you won't need a visa, but visits will be time—limited. free health care will no longer be guaranteed. we'll need different driving documents for some countries and extra paperwork for pets. all of those things have been agreed, but there's plenty more that will need to be discussed if trade talks collapse in the next few days. vicki young, bbc news. the health secretary for england, matt hancock, says he's "particularly concerned" about rising coronavirus cases in london, kent, and essex. secondary school children are being urged to get a test in the coming days in the worst affected areas, even if they have no symptoms — although schools will remain open. the impact of covid on the nhs in england was made clear today, with a big rise in the number of patients waiting more than a year for routine surgery. here's our health editor, hugh pym.

covid case numbers are coming down in many parts of england, but they're going up in london and the south—east, especially among younger age groups, and there are fears infections will spread to older people. in some areas all secondary school pupils will be tested, with mobile units moving in. tonight, one london council leader offered his support. we're asking obviously everyone, every young person, to play their part. yes, it's ok that you're doing bubbles in schools, but that's still not happening outside of the school environment and it's worrying a lot of people, so we've asked for the additional support. we're pleased government has listened. the latest developments had been set out at the downing street briefing. how concerned are you about this increase in cases in the south—east which relate back to infections a week or so ago, when lockdown was still in place orjust ending? if these rates were going up towards the tail end of lockdown, that is quite

a concerning situation, so we need to actually keep quite a close eye on that, because we all know the christmas period, if people go too far in the christmas period, it's going to be a period of risk everywhere. and moving london and essex into tier 3 — the highest alert level — was not ruled out. we'll look at the data, the most up—to—date data we have, on the 16th, so next wednesday. of course, we're looking at it all the time, but that's the moment we'll take a formal review and a formal decision. i'm in constant pain, all through the night and all through the day. chris, who's 71, has had to live with that increasing pain because of arthritis since last year. a planned hip replacement in march was cancelled because of the pandemic — and he's still waiting. i get very depressed. i'm lucky that i've got a family that are caring for me, but i really worry about those that haven't, because it's

absolutely debilitating. julie also has arthritis and needs two knee replacements. she had to quit her nhsjob because of the pain and has been waiting since january, but her local hospital haven't managed to get the ops done. every time i go, theyjust keep shrugging their shoulders, saying, "we're sorry, we don't know when, we're just absolutely snowed under, and we can't do anything to help you." so, basically, i'vejust been really struggling. i can't even walk to the shops now without being in severe pain. in england, in october, there were 163,000 patients waiting more than a year for a routine operation or procedure. that compared with just 1,600 in february, before the covid crisis hit the nhs. the total number waiting for nonurgent treatment is now 4.41; million, close to the highest

since modern records began. nhs england said more diagnostic tests were being carried out and more people treated for cancer. but if covid patient numbers rise that can mean postponements of nonurgent treatment and procedures, and some hospitals in the south—east are now coming under renewed pressure. hugh pym, bbc news. all pupils at secondary schools and colleges in wales will have to stay at home and learn online from monday for the last week of term. the welsh government announced the decision this afternoon, as covid cases continue to rise. let's speak to our wales correspondent hywell griffith. this has come pretty late for many schools and parents? yes, especially for those who are scratching their heads trying to work out what they will do for childcare next week, and we know ministers over a week ago were given the scientific advice that keeping secondary school pupils at home would help them isolate a head of

the christmas period when they might be coming into contact with older potentially more vulnerable relatives and the welsh government did not act then but several councils made their own minds up and announced this over the last few days, that they would be closing next week. unions added pressure on the minister and eventually she made that announcement, so secondary school and college pupils to learn from home, and she said primaries would be encouraged to stay open but tonight several councils again made up tonight several councils again made up their own tonight several councils again made up theirown minds tonight several councils again made up their own minds and announced primary schools in many areas including here in cardiff would close early next week with children learning from home, which adds to the impression as case numbers continue to raise daily in wales, that the welsh government is struggling to control the situation at the moment. we know hospitals are under real strain especially intensive care units and today we we re intensive care units and today we were told that health boards will be allowed once again to suspend nonurgent treatment in wales. we've not seen that since the first wave early in the year but it is a

symptom of how desperate the situation here has become. thanks for joining situation here has become. thanks forjoining us. the latest government figures show there were 20,964 new coronavirus infections recorded in the latest 24—hour period. the average number of new cases reported per day in the last week is now 16,236. 516 deaths were reported, that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. that means on average in the past week 427 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 63,082. an independent review into the deaths of babies at an nhs trust has revealed a series of failures, including in some cases the blaming of mothers for their babies' dying. an inquiry was set up three years ago to look at fatalities

and injuries at the shrewsbury and telford trust between 2000 and 2018. it started by looking into 23 cases of a baby dying or suffering brain injury, or of a mother's death. but the review has now expanded to nearly 1,900 cases, which also include women or babies who were injured during birth. injune this year, police launched a criminal investigation into whether there was enough evidence to support a case against the trust or against any of the individuals involved. our social affairs correspondent michael buchanan has been speaking to two families whose children died. you read the story of a baby, and it died. the story of another baby, and it died. i physically felt sick as i read the report. without these two families, the appalling care exposed today would not have been revealed — both motivated by personal grief. in 2016, pippa griffiths died after staff failed to act on her parents‘ concerns.

seven years earlier, kate sta nton—davies died after midwives failed to properly monitor her. pippa should never have died. we campaigned after kate's death for them to learn from kate's death. if they had learned, pippa would not have died. i feel a huge weight of responsibility that we didn't fight hard enough. for years, the trust ignored them, insisting maternity care was good. today's findings, based on an analysis of 250 cases between 2000 and 2018, shows how right the families were. the review says that mothers were blamed for the death of their babies, there was a reluctance to carry out caesarean sections, often with catastrophic consequences. 13 women died in labour or shortly afterwards, higher than the england average. some of the deaths were never investigated. can you explain why it took two families to highlight these failures?

i can't explain that. i will be honest, there have been days where i have met family after family, and i meet them privately in shrewsbury, where i have sat down and cried because, as a fellow human being, you can't do anything other than that. the trust wouldn't take questions today but did say they'd implement all 27 recommendations. as the chief executive of the trust now, i want to say personally and on behalf of the trust, that we are very sorry for all of the pain and distress caused to these families. the full report into all 1,862 cases before the review will be published next year. until then, these families will continue to push for real improvements. when your children say to you, "why are you doing this again, mum? "why do you put yourself through this? "

it's because we don't want any other families to go through the pain that we have. kayleigh griffiths ending that report by michael buchanan. let's take a look at some of today's other news. the sky news presenter kay burley has been taken off the air for six months after breaking covid—19 rules for her 60th birthday party in london on saturday. today in a statement miss burley said she'd made a "big mistake" and apologised — saying she had "pulled her colleagues into the episode". their political editor beth rigby and correspondent inzamam rashid have been taken off air for three months. they, too, regret the incident. the mayor of liverpool is stepping aside from his role following his arrest on suspicion of conspiracy to commit bribery and witness intimidation. joe anderson said he would take unpaid leave while the investigation continues.

he was detained and bailed last week, along with four others. the canary islands is being removed from the list of safe travel corridors, as a result of rising infection rates. it means people arriving in the uk from the popular spanish islands from 4am on saturday must self—isolate. some of the poorest countries of the world face severe hardship from the long—term consequences of the pandemic. international organisations such as the world bank and the charity oxfam have warned that up to 70 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty, undoing decades of progress. and, as the bbc‘s george alagiah has been finding out, the squeeze on household income here in britain is having a direct impact on lives elsewhere. spitalfields in east london has attracted migrants for centuries. in the 17th it was french protestants. in the late 19thjews settled here.

today it is a home from home for bangladeshi migrants. one of the things migrants have always done, once they establish themselves and their new lives in places like this, is to start sending money back home. my own family has done that. the problem is, this year, 2020, covid has put a stop to that vital flow of cash. from barbers to waiters, they all want to help relatives. roughly one in every $20 in the bangladeshi economy comes from families abroad. this man used to send £2000 per year but since march his earnings as an electrician have plummeted. he says hello to you, as well. i'm short of income here so i can't then send money to bangladesh. this is money they really depend on. absolutely. we support the children's education and we are not able to do that for them so it makes us sad here. athaur‘s cousin is desperate and is about to sell two of his cows just to keep going.

translation: my cousins were helping me before. that made it possible to cover our living costs. now, because of the pandemic, we don't get any help from anyone. i don't know how we will survive in the days ahead. only allah knows how we will live. there are 15 people in the extended family to support. translation: it's hard to buy food, pay for the children's education and pay our expenses. this loss of income comes on top of the faltering global economy with devastating consequences around the world. 20 years of incredible progress on health and millions of people coming out of poverty has really stopped. south africa's struggle against tuberculosis is a classic example of how covid has hijacked health care. next to prosperous cape town lies the settlement of khayelitsha. tb is a disease that thrives

on poverty and overcrowding. limited resources have been diverted to fighting covid—19, leaving thousands undiagnosed with tb. each one of them could infect up to ten other people. it is a ticking time bomb and ijust want to remind the viewers that tb remains the leading infectious disease killer globally, certainly in south africa. twice the number of people die from tb in south africa compared to covid—19. the arrival of covid vaccines brings hope but even this has the potential to widen the gap between rich and poor countries. if the first 2 billion doses of covid vaccines go only to rich countries, then not only will the pandemic last much longer but we will see twice as many deaths. we are not safe until everyone is safe. the pandemic has exposed the way in which the well—being of people around the world, whether they live in the north or south, whether they are rich or poor, is a shared problem,

needing global solutions. george alagiah, bbc news. conservationists say decades of efforts to save the european bison are proving successful — with more than 6,000 of the large mammals scattered across poland, belarus and russia. the bison were almost wiped out in the wild a century ago but now they are one of over 25 species with an improved status on the updated official extinction list. however, 31 species of plants and animals have become extinct in the latest tally. one of the most anticipated films of the year is ma rainey‘s black bottom, which is hotly tipped for oscars success. adapted from a cycle of plays about the black american experience by the award—winning playwright august wilson, it tells the story of the trailblazing blues singer, ma rainey. the drama stars viola davis and chadwick boseman, who died of colon cancer this summer. our arts editor will gompertz spoke to viola davis

and to the director george c wolfe. testing, one, two,. one, two, you know what to do. # i'm on my way # as crazy as i can be... you're playing ma rainey, the legendary mother of the blues. it's the 19205. she's a very powerful black woman knows her status but she is in conflict with white producers who control to a certain extent her creativity. you could argue you are also a powerful black woman now, nearly 100 years later. has much changed in the entertainment industry? there is still a huge deficit in terms of being in the total position of power, so that we don't have to go to white producers or white studio execs and have to over explain our work and over

explain our artistry. we still have to achieve that. you care nothing about me. all you want is my voice. we're at the beginning of a race that has been going on for a01 years. that's like saying, i've got to run for 50,000 miles and ijust started yesterday and i was walking. laughter we still have a long way to go. but i feel like at least there is movement. i'm going to get me a band and make me some records. the character levee played by chadwick boseman who tragically died after making the movie, what was the process of making the movie with him like? he wasn't interested in black panther any more. he was a character actor trapped in a leading man's body. he wasn't interested in chadwick. he wasn't interested in being the sexy lead of a movie. he was interested in the transformational value of the business. ma rainey is here.