tonight at ten — the uk and the eu both say that no trade deal is the probable outcome of ongoing talks. dressed to take the political flak — the prime minister tried to remain upbeat in the face of potential failure as he warned of a no deal result. i have no doubt that this country can get ready. and, as i say, come out on world trade terms. as industries weigh up a potential no—deal, the bbc learns of contingency plans at the border. with cabinet ministers meet to do a stocktake of no deal plans, we'll be asking why some european ministers remain cautiously upbeat about an agreement. also tonight... get out of my pub! with pleasure! tributes have poured in to the actress dame barbara windsor, who has died at the age of 83. could genetics hold the key to

finding new treatments for covid—19? and squaring up before tomorrow's big fight — between anthonyjoshua and the bulgarian boxer kubrat pulev. and coming up in sport on bbc news, can west ham bounce back from defeat to manchester united as they take on leeds in tonight's premier league match. good evening. the likelihood of a post—brexit trade deal is deeply uncertain tonight, with both borisjohnson and the president of the european commission speaking in gloomy terms about the chances of success. but ministers in ireland and germany struck a more optimistic note, saying that a deal was still feasible. the uk and the eu have agreed that a decision on the future of the negotiations will be made by the end of the weekend. deadlines in this process have come and gone without a firm outcome —

but with less than three weeks to go before the new arrangements start, time is fast running out. so, ahead of a crucial 48 hours, we'll bring you the latest from brussels, and we'll compare the economic consequences of deal and no deal. but first here's our political correspondent alex forsyth. it was a covid welcome for the prime minister today at a firm providing energy for the future. more immediate trade talks, though, must be on his mind. negotiators are still working out which way they'll go as borisjohnson warned again reaching agreement with the eu looks doubtful. it's looking, you know, very, very likely that we'll have to go for a solution that i think would be... you know, wonderfulfor the uk. we'd be able to do exactly what we want from january the 1st, though obviously it would be different from what we'd set out to achieve. but i have no doubt that this country can get ready, and as i say, come out on world trade terms.

so, for those affected, what does that mean? this farm exports barley to the eu. if there's no deal comejanuary, world trade rules kick in, meaning tariffs or taxes on goods moving between here and the continent, which could push costs up. i think for the industry as a whole, it'll be disastrous. we've got a perfect storm approaching of these support payments being taken away, brexit, possibly no deal and covid—19. all these things have come all at once, and that is a massive problem. these with the queues in kent this week. there's already congestion at ports as global supply chain struggle with demand and covid restrictions. brexit will mean more change for business, whatever the outcome of trade talks. the government says it is prepared, testing plans for traffic build—up this weekend. but no—deal would mean more disruption. both sides say they want an agreement, but that may well not happen because the same sticking

points remain — access to fishing waters and shared regulations and standards. and on that, number 10 says the uk has to be able to make its own decisions and not be tied to eu rules in future. from brussels today, the message was that's perfectly possible, but there'd be a price. they would remain free — sovereign, if you wish — to decide what they want to do. we would simply adapt the conditions for access to our market accordingly the decision of the united kingdom, and this would apply vice—versa. so neither side shifting yet, but the door isn't entirely closed. translation: we believe finding a solution in the talks is difficult, but possible. that's why we as eu will continue negotiations as long as the window is open, even if it's only a crack. the negotiations are still ongoing. and i think the implications are very serious for all concerned in the event of a no—deal, and i think all politicians

in the united kingdom and across europe need to reflect on that. so in brussels, the mood may be gloomy, but until sunday, which is decision day, they are still talking. alex forsyth, bbc news. our europe editor katya adler is in brussels for us now. why is it that some are still hopeful of a trade deal, when borisjohnson and the eu commission president are so doubtful? well, quite simply, as long as the two sites are still talking there is a chance, however slim that solutions are being found. we don't actually know what is going on behind closed doors. of course it's only the negotiators in the room who are aware of what's going on under health warning, in the meantime we can expect briefing and counter briefing from both sides. you could ask though, if the eu really wants this deal, why is it the angela merkel of germany or emmanuel macron

of france aren't meeting the prime minister or talking to him on the phone, like we heard today that he has been suggesting? is it a snub? is it bad faith? the eu says no, it's simply because the focus of these negotiations is on the eu's single market. it's a market that binds all eu countries. it's something that all eu countries make their money from. so they don't think that any one single eu leader, however powerful they are, has the right to make that deal breaking handshake with the prime minister, making compromises that will affect all of the others. that's why eu leaders chose the european commission to lead in their negotiations on the eu side were to make a deal with the uk to respect its national sovereignty, they say, as much as possible, but the priority being the single market and, yes, as you say, the mood here is as gloomy as in the uk, but because the eu wants a deal i'm already hearing whispers from european diplomats who say to me

they hope if it comes to a no deal it will prove so difficult for the uk that it will propel the government back to the negotiating table, something sometime next year, something the government says can't be taken for granted. katya adler, thank you, in brussels. i'm joined by faisal islam, our economics editor. the mood music is pointing towards a no deal. what does the reality of that look like? it's very serious and very visible too. in terms of we've heard from the government was my own economic advisers saying effectively the mountain of red tape from leaving the single market and leaving the customs union will be a hit to the economy, but on top of that no deal as we've been hearing, will mean taxes on imports, raised prices, taxes on imports, raised prices, taxes on imports, raised prices, taxes on our exports to the eu, which would hit manufacturing. we heard from nissan today, saying there was no plan b if such a thing

came to pass. but as you saw in alex's report, things are getting very serious. we had a meeting today from the prime minister who surveyed the planning for no deal and there was another meeting of something called the kent resilience forum this afternoon, testing out that lorry park that would stretch out to dover on the m 2a many miles and is pa rt dover on the m 2a many miles and is part of that they are having to work out which lorries with priority load would get to skip the queue —— on the m20. apparently it will be live fish exports which apparently come from scotland and are transported via truck, and also day—old chicks are the only things they have space for in order to give priority for export, the fish and chip strategy apparently. talking of fish there is also this talks a night of the navy being used in terms of policing our waters if there is a no deal, so

serious consequences. it's getting very real. the bank of england says oui’ very real. the bank of england says our financial system should be protected, though if there is an economic hit, but it's all getting rather real tonight. faisal islam, many thanks. tributes have been pouring in today for dame barbara windsor, who's died at the age of 83. her acting career spanned more than 60 years. she found fame in the carry on films of the 1960s and ‘70s, and went on to spend nearly 20 years behind the bar of the queen vic in eastenders, playing the formidable landlady peggy mitchell. our entertainment correspondent david sillito looks back at her life. barbara giggles. that'll do, that'll do. all right, girls, get in the coach, and you get on with the loading. barbara windsor — funny, cheeky and much loved. so we were told to bring the minimum of clothing. now, really let's see those chests come out! the tributes today to a star whose career goes back almost 70 years. ooh, matron, take them away!

a career that ended with eastenders and this scene. alzheimer's was already beginning to take hold. we asked how she would remember her friend and co—star. with sadness, with, i suppose if i'm rational, a certain amount of relief. for somebody to have that awful condition, when they've been such a ray of light and a person of such joy and life, yes, it is a relief. born barbara ann deeks, the daughter of a barrow boy, she began acting as a teenager. it was joan littlewood of the theatre workshop that saw her star quality. oh, what a lovely war, things ain't what they used to be, sparrows can't sing. the fame and the glamour also attracted some shady companions, such as the krays.

but it was the carry on films that made her a star. hi. her entrance was always an excuse for something slightly saucy. have you got a large one? i've had no complaints so far. he cackles. # up to the west end!# but after those nine carry on films, there were some lean years. until she found peggy. grant! mum. i heard you were back, i was going to give you a call. then why didn't you, you useless great lump? peggy mitchell in eastenders, the new landlady of the queen vic, was a role made for her. you're unfit to be a father! don't you dare turn your back on me! get off me! 22 years on albert square... get out of my pub! ..which ended with barbara becoming dame barbara. dame babs sounds nice, doesn't it? but my mum would like it to be dame barbara. she was a bit of a cockney snob, my mum.

so it would be, "dame barbara." god, what would she be thinking now? what would she be thinking? but she already knew her memory was beginning to fail. oh, my dearfriend. you'll never leave me, will you? dame barbara windsor, talent, warmth... no, sweetheart. thank you. ..and a lifetime of cheeky fun. david sillito reporting there. after her diagnosis with alzheimer's disease in 2014, dame barbara became a campaigner for those living with dementia. last year, she wrote to the prime minister, urging him to find a long—term funding solution to end what she called the social care crisis. our correspondent helena wilkinson has been looking back at her work. frail and supported by her husband, scott, it was clear on this visit to downing street last yearjust how unwell she'd become.

she was, though, determined to use her voice, urging the prime minister for better care for dementia sufferers. the system, she said, was completely inadequate and unfair. three years ago, robert beattie was diagnosed with alzheimer's. his wife karen says dame barbara going public about her diagnosis has been important. honestly, and to get the government talking about it and hopefully do something about it. hopefully, the momentum won't stop and we'll get more people like rob and me that will go out and talk. we know some in wales already do. but the people inside the houses that are ashamed, we need you to do the same thing, and get this on the platform so that we can get the help that we need. what is it like, day to day, living with alzheimer's? it's day— by—day.

that is what i would say, it's day— by—day. he'll forget what room he's in, he won't know where the bedroom or the bathroom is. i have to guide him through the process of getting changed, and clothed. scott, how are you? earlier this year, ross kemp, her on—screen son in eastenders and close friend, spoke to dame barbara's husband about the couple's pain and their struggle. what was it like, when the specialist turned around and said to you, "it's alzheimer's"? that was the moment when she just looked at me, she held her hand out and said, "i'm so sorry", she whispered it to me. she said sorry to you? she said sorry. i remember that. that was the old fun barbara, wasn't it? scott mitchell said he was immensely proud of how his wife dealt with her illness, and still tried to help others for as long as she could. helena wilkinson, bbc news.

the latest government coronavirus figures show there were 21,672 new coronavirus infections recorded in the latest 24—hour period. that means the average number of new cases reported per day in the last week is now 17,004. there were 1,456 people admitted to hospital on average each day over the week to last friday. and 424 deaths were reported — that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. that means on average, in the past week, 415 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 63,506. the period of self—isolation for people who've had contact with those who've tested positive for coronavirus is to be cut from 14 to 10 days. the new rules — which already apply in wales — take effect in the rest

of the uk on monday. the change will also apply to travellers quarantining after returning from abroad. the news came as data showed the number of coronavirus cases falling across most of england and northern ireland, but increasing in wales, london, and the east of england. here's our health editor, hugh pym. contact tracing in action here in peterborough. local authority staff going door—to—door to find people who've been recent contacts of those who test positive. they're following up after initial attempts by the national test and trace service. the numbers that they've obviously been given, they can't contact them on, so we just have to make that final call to their house. oh, hello, i'm calling... for those contacted by the tracers, there's better news. they won't have to self—isolate for so long, after a review by health officials of scientific studies. all of those combined together show that the tail end of infectiousness, if you like, is the one where an individual is least likely to transmit infection.

so allowing somebody out of self—isolation a short time earlier than that is a reasonable balance between managing the risk to the public, but allowing us not to intrude on their lives. the self—isolation period will come down from 14 days to 10. that already happens in wales. it'll apply to contacts of those testing positive and people coming into the uk and needing to quarantine. it'll take effect on monday, though if someone's already started a 14—day isolation, it'll now be ten. if the r number is above one, it shows the virus is accelerating. today's update shows it's just below one, though back where it was two weeks ago, suggesting no clear trend, though there are variations around the uk. the latest survey of community infections by the office of national statistics suggests that in england, one in 115 people had the virus last week, with case rates coming down in most areas, though they were

on the increase in london and the east of england. in wales, it was one in 120 with the virus, with increases in recent weeks. in scotland, it was also one in 120, with case rates relatively stable. in northern ireland, one in 235 had the virus, with continued declines in case rates. in areas of south—east england, case numbers are rising fastest among 11 to 18—year—olds. at this school in dagenham the teacher is on her own in the classroom with pupils learning remotely. in north—east london and parts of kent and essex, secondary school pupils will be tested, with the virus causing havoc for the management of schools. we've got to juggle cover, cases are coming in for children who then need to isolate and be sent home, so it's a real challenge. every day is a covid day at the school at the moment. in birmingham meanwhile, covid marshals are patrolling the streets, reminding people that social distancing rules are as important

as ever and that the virus is still a threat. hugh pym, bbc news. as vaccines against coronavirus start to be rolled out, there remains an urgent need to find treatments for patients with covid—19, and scientists have been looking at genetics as a way forward. a new study published in the journal nature today looked at more than 2000 patients in intensive care in the uk — and identified specific genes that can be targeted, possibly by using treatments already in use for other diseases. our science correspondent rebecca morelle has more. it's one of the pandemic‘s biggest puzzles — why some people with covid have no symptoms, and others get extremely ill. now, one of the biggest studies of its kind has found possible answers in our dna. people who become desperately sick with any infection are genetically different from the rest of the population. what we are looking for is genes that tell us a bit of biological

information that will enable us to come up with a better way of treating critical illness. the scientists looked at the dna of more than 2000 covid patients in intensive care. they scanned each person's genes, which contain instructions for every biological process, including how to fight the virus. and they compared this with the dna of healthy people, to pinpoint any genetic differences. they found one at a gene called tyk2. it activates parts of the immune response. but if that gene is faulty, the response can go into overdrive. what is particularly exciting about the tyk2 findings is that there is already a whole class of drugs that inhibit that protein. so, they target very specifically the biological mechanism that we think is causing severe covid. this means existing

anti—inflammatory drugs, including one used for rheumatoid arthritis, could be tried. but it isn't the only genetic discovery. one gene helps to kick—start the immune system as soon as the infection is detected. another plays a role in stopping the virus from making copies of itself. and it's revealing which treatments to use and also when to use them. it really is an example of precision medicine, where we can actually identify the moment at which things have gone awry in that individual. so, knowing where the gene is in that response to infection gives us an idea of whether this is an early response or a late response, and where we should be intervening. vaccines will decrease cases of covid. but doctors around the world will be treating this disease for years to come, so new treatments are urgently needed, and these genetic discoveries could help in the race to find them. rebecca morelle, bbc news.

the nhs in wales will not be able to cope by christmas, if covid—19 cases continue to rise at their current rate, the first minister mark drakeford has said. his government will publish a new plan of restrictions next week. today, all secondary school pupils in wales have been sent home until the new year, and mr drakeford announced that all outdoor christmas attractions will be closed. in scotland, 11 council areas in the top tier of restrictions have moved down a level — with non—essential shops reopening. but the first minister nicola sturgeon urged people to do their christmas shopping locally, and not to travel out of their areas. northern ireland too has seen an easing of restrictions today. we'll be reporting from there and from scotland shortly. but first, hywel griffith reports from cardiff. the areas that you've picked up... a final face—to—face for this term. from monday, these pupils in cardiff will be learning online from home to try to stop the spread of the virus.

for 17—year—old tilly, it really doesn't feel like christmas has come early. we should've been told earlier, so then we could've been more prepared for it. but now, because we haven't, we feel that we're stressed, the teachers are stressed, everyone just doesn't know what's going on. the headteacher here says it's the right decision, but a week too late. dozens of parents had already withdrawn their children. either we survive the inevitable chaos as children and families vote with their feet, or we gain control and provide confidence and give as high—quality learning as we possibly can. the health service is trying to wrestle back control, too. hospitals are treating a record number of patients. at 1500 nhs staff are self isolating. the national case rate has risen to over 400 per 100,000 people. the pre—christmas crackdown

means closing outdoor entertainment, also. even tougher restrictions lie ahead. if those measures do not succeed in turning the tide of the virus, then it is inevitable that we will have to consider a move to alert level four immediately after christmas. what does level four mean? well, almost certainly another welsh national lockdown to start on december the 28th, unless this rapid rise in cases somehow slows. with limited shopping time till christmas, this glasgow gift shop is fully stocked and ready to make up for lost time. delighted to be back open again. you know, obviously being closed for three weeks at this time of year is challenging. browsing for gifts, this mother and daughter are keen to help local businesses. just lovely to be in and support them. and i always get the right kind of gifts here.

i like going to shops to actually see things and even see people. it's nice to be out and about again. glasgow's george square is usually a festive highlight, but not this year. there's no christmas market, there's no hustle and bustle and there's no echo of excited children, yet another signal that 2020 is very different for most of us. this hairdressers only opened injuly. it's been a challenging start. but now they plan to work every day until christmas. i think everyone's ecstatic to be back at work. it's been a big blow having to close down for three weeks when there are equals in edinburgh or elsewhere in the country have managed to stay open and have been working throughout. for emma, the salon opened in the nick of time, as she gets married tomorrow. itjust makes such a difference, especially since my wedding photos will be photographs i'll keep forever. and you just want to look your best.

the restrictions may be less severe, but it could be some time until our daily lives get back to normal. it was back to the grind in northern ireland today as businesses reopened again after another fortnight of strict closures. for some, that meant hitting the gym. it's really noticeable in people's well—being and sort of mental outlook when they don't have the gym, so it's just great to see it open. for others, hitting the shops. it's happy days to get christmas stuff in. it's great, good to be out and about and see a bit of normality again. but there's still concern over infection rates. from today, 50 schools in belfast wrote to the devolved government calling for an extended closure for the christmas holidays. northern ireland's health minister today warned that lockdown restrictions are likely to return in the new year. how strict they are and what they actually look like will depend

on people's actions over the next few weeks, so that's why we are asking please use this time wisely and responsibly. a number of bars in northern ireland, like the limelight here, usually one of the busiest places in town, have now decided not to reopen until next year after all even though they are permitted to if they serve food, saying the restrictions restraints are just a little too much to put on a proper night out. those that have opened today have done so in the knowledge that it may be only a matter of time before they're asked to close again. emma vardy, bbc news, belfast. two men serving life sentences for multiple rapes have had their minimum jail terms increased from 30 to 40 years. the attorney general‘s office had referred the cases ofjoseph mccann and reynhard sinaga to the court of appeal — arguing that their sentences were "unduly lenient" for such "heinous and depraved" crimes.

prosecutors believe their new 40—year terms are the longest ever imposed on offenders who have not committed murder. six former sub—postmasters have had fraud convictions linked to a faulty computer system quashed in court. the long—running scandal began when the post office installed a new computer system that led to hundreds of sub—postmasters being wrongly convicted. two months ago the post office confirmed it would not oppose or contest dozens of cases referred to the court of appeal. a recommended pay rise for mps of more than £3,000 has been scrapped by officials. the independent parliamentary standards authority said the rise would be inconsistent with the experience of voters during the pandemic, and mps' salaries would be frozen instead. the boxer anthonyjoshua has squared up against kubrat pulev at the weigh—in for the pair's world heavyweight title fight tomorrow night. around a thousand fans will watch his clash with the bulgarian at wembley arena. from there, our sports correspondent

natalie pirks reports. as his opponent gestured behind him, anthonyjoshua adopted his game face. he's waited 371 days for this. ring rustiness can't come into play. it's going to show who was disciplined through lockdown. that's what saturday night will show, who worked on their craft during lockdown, who's improved. even though they haven't been competing, they've still been able to train and hone new skills. it's joshua dancing, dancing! those skills were on display in the saudi arabian desert last december, when he avenged the first defeat of his professional career against andy ruiz with a disciplined performance. redemption time for anthony joshua! his opponent tomorrow is kubrat pulev, a powerful bulgarian fighting in his late father's memory. boxing will always have its critics, especially in a week where there's been such a focus on head injury in sports. but it hasn't impacted its popularity. joshua's last fight broke uk pay—per—view records.

and tomorrow night sees the first time uk boxing fans are allowed back inside to watch a fight live since the start of the pandemic. just 1000 are lucky enough to have tickets, like superfan steve, who's paid £200 for his. very, very privileged and very lucky to get one of the 1000 golden tickets as you could call them. so, yeah, it's great for boxing, and it's obviously great to have fans back at sporting events again. do you feel like charlie bucket, then? yeah, a little bit, i guess, yeah. victory forjoshua would bring the prospect of a mouth—watering all—british affair with tyson fury to be crowned the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. right now, though, there's only one focus. when i look at kubrat pulev, i'm saying that boy can't beat me. that boy can't beat me. i'm too good, i'm too strong, i'm too quick and i've developed too much skills. and that's the mindset i'm going into saturday night with.