appear in the times. jeffrey kaufmann, a former network news anchor in the united states. here in the studio with me is celia hatton, asia—pacific editor for the bbc. it was the english puritans who cancelled christmas. borisjohnson is no a puritan. in the 17th century, the festival had become an excuse for licentiousness, or — to use the argo of 2020 — failing to observe social distancing. this week, the welsh government departed from the uk—wide consensus brokered just last week — up to three households able to meet indoors. in wales, it will be two households. mrjohnson didn't sing it, but he did plead with people around the uk to "have yourself a merry little christmas". celia, is this a case of boris johnson wanting to have his christmas cake and eat it? it's tricky, we are seeing political leaders around the world struggling

with its issue. in some issues, germany, we've seen these pre—christmas lockdown is being imposed, but other countries are really struggling, too. the philippines in particular, really what we are seeing borisjohnson struggling with, we are seeing the philippines leader struggling with this as well. the philippines is 94% christian, so christian is a really big deal. for weeks now, he has been pleading with the population to keep gathering small, to stop singing, so church choirs, but also karaoke. and he is trying to introduce the idea that christmas should include small, solemn gatherings. a lot of people are public going to ignore him. it is really interesting watching that play out in two different countries around the world. martyn, how worried do think some of boris

johnson's parliamentary colleagues and his conservative party are about this? about the decisions being taken? very interesting, because of course at the time of talking there are meetings ongoing about what to do about the situation in the south—east of england and in london in particular, so it is that cluster around the capital where there are reports of a new strain. and that is forcing him to rethink the christmas rule. it is a issue across europe, not unique to the uk. borisjohnson, a few weeks ago you would have said, andi a few weeks ago you would have said, and i certainly wrote, that he would come under immense pressure in parliamentary terms do not cancel christmas, something he doesn't want to do. but actually there is a sense of exhaustion, and i'm sure people feel it in countries around the world, but in the uk politics is

taking a back—seat here. people have had a really tough year, and i think actually the expectation, and you mentioned the tory tribes, and he does have issues on his back benches, but on the christmas issue ido benches, but on the christmas issue i do not think that he will face that much criticism. the battle will be early in the new year, because of course britain is already vaccinating. it will be how quickly the post—christmas lockdown the uk can open up a try and get the economy moving again. jeffrey, you are joining economy moving again. jeffrey, you arejoining us from spain. that is a country that locked down early and dramatically in the spring. it hasn't necessarily solved all of the problems. how are things there at the moment? i thinkjeffrey had broken while we

try to get him back, let's think about what will happen in the coming months. given the pressure coming from the other parts of the uk, do you think... inaudible. i think it is, i am not a lockdown sceptic, i have argued for other approaches as well but it seems pretty clear from the numbers what is happening in terms of case numbers... inaudible. the concern is allowing people to mix more over christmas and new year, the five—day window in the uk, a price will be paid for that in the middle of january. so a price will be paid for that in the middle ofjanuary. so as ever throughout this crisis, the concern of the uk government is a sense of the nhs, the national health service, being potentially swamped.

it is not a uniquely british problem. across europe, look what has happened in germany this week, look how sombre angela merkel was with the new restrictions in germany. a very big deal obviously for germans to face even tougher restrictions on christmas, a time that really matters. in german culture. i think it's just seen as, we are so culture. i think it's just seen as, we are so close if not to the finishing line but light at the end of the tunnel, probably in march, by which point certainly in the uk and hopefully in other parts of europe, large numbers and hopefully all vulnerable populations will be vaccinated. the vaccination programme can then start to move further down the vulnerable list. by march or april, the hope is you will have something that feels more like normality. as i said earlier, i

think that is where the crunch point is going to come. because many people will then say, look, the vulnerable in uk terms, say 15 million people, have already been vaccinated, we cannot go on borrowing and spending in this way. we have to get the economy moving around easter. ithink we have to get the economy moving around easter. i think that will be the battleground. but i think anyone who is saying no lockdown injanuary is going to be disappointed. i think there will be quite tough restrictions across europe. on that, geoffrey you are in valencia, what is happening there now? there is a odd sense of dystopian normality. everyone is living life in a way that shows no sone of coronavirus, except everyone is wearing a mask, it is the law, on the street, when you are cycling. —— no sign. people have been terrified given what they

have been terrified given what they have gone through in 2020, and it is particularly notable that young people, 18, 20 years old, all wearing masks. the compliance here... that being said, there will be no travel between regions over the christmas holidays, and you just have to look at the united states to see what happened in late november thanksgiving, to see why spain and other countries are worried about the holiday period. inaudible. more and more records being shattered in the us, 300,000 dead, 3600 deaths in the us on wednesday, the highest ever. intensive care units in the us running out of beds. every country, this virus knows no borders, it sets its own agenda.

political leaders and smart people everywhere are following it. what is extraordinary when you compare spain to the united states is here, there seems to be a real consensus. in the us, of course, a very different story. we will leave it there for now. donald rumsfeld, the former us defense secretary, wrote a book recently ‘the center held' in which he argued that president gerald ford, for whom he worked, had helped to save american democracy after the turmoil of the late sixties and watergate and the corruption of ford's predecessor, richard nixon. half a century on, despite donald trump's tirades against the "most corrupt election ever", the electoral college met this week to confirm joe biden‘s victory. injanuary, he will be inaugurated as the 46th president of the united states. geoffrey, you are in spain as i have said, but looking back at what has

been happening in the united states, it sounds a strange question to pose, but it's been a very strange period after the election. how close do you think america came to becoming a dictatorship? there were certainly rumblings, there were moments when trump might have liked something like that, but the institutions of american democracy have been tested and survived. it can be overstating it to say that normality will return. the damage to the credibility of the electoral system, the damage to the institutions, the credibility of the voting system. even though there is zero evidence... the ongoing narrative in american elections. i don't think it's a question of a dictatorship for people, inaudible.

we had the former... inaudible. limited martial law, a national real election, it never came to any of that. but notwithstanding the us electoral college... a lot of republicans still say the election was stolen. i think ultimately the concerns are overdone particular bizarre experience during the trump years. what is fascinating about the trump personality, persona, is watching...

inaudible. holidays can pass and you no longer have to think, what is trump thinking and doing? —— whole days can pass. it has been a very stressful period. the republic's not perfect, the founders were not perfect, the founders were not perfect in how they designed it, however they did a pretty good job. and actually on the whole, the institutions and constitution have held remarkably well. the comparison with ford that donald rumsfeld makes ita with ford that donald rumsfeld makes it a good one. what america now needsis it a good one. what america now needs is a period of relative calm, and a president that can try and speakfor, and a president that can try and speak for, if not all americans but a large number of americans. he's going to have huge difficulties. look at what he is inheriting.

packed in the most spectacular way since the cold war, this week. —— hacked. huge challenges with the virus in the us. policy has always been divided, this is not a new development, but it is particularly vicious at the moment. the marvellous thing about american politics is we have just had one electoral cycle and it all begins again. already the republicans are thinking about reorganising for the midterms, coming up, and that is the beauty of the american system. it will move on and it will make it possible to forget, sort of, donald trump. i'm not sure everybody would use the word marvellous! in terms of the challenge joe biden use the word marvellous! in terms of the challengejoe biden faces, all very well for him to talk about consensus and reaching out, but quite a few people on the

progressive side of the democratic party, the last thing they wanted him reaching out to republicans, that would mean further compromising an agenda that they don't think is radical enough in the first. absolutely. a lot of people have been biding theirtime absolutely. a lot of people have been biding their time and waiting for a democrat to go into the white house again, and they are not looking for co—operation, they don't wa nt looking for co—operation, they don't want the center to hold. they want the left to take its place and ideally roll back a lot of what donald trump put into action. so it's going to be really interesting to see howjoe biden navigates this course. there is also a lot of pressure on him, as was said, to really get him to unite the two halves. a lot of people in the united states are tired of this ongoing split in us politics, and the challenges it puts up. geoffrey, do you think biden can be another gerald ford? you know, the potential

criminal charges donald trump faces, will he pardon him? particularly how much trump has tried to rig the syste m much trump has tried to rig the system in his own favour. you can argue this both ways. on one level we should move on, the government should let it go and put this to rest... inaudible. a challenge in that one... trump faces a series of potential criminal charges that really make up a very long list. inaudible. republicans govern for themselves,

and on the left there was a sense of wait a and on the left there was a sense of waita minute, and on the left there was a sense of wait a minute, we are inclusive and they get in and they... inaudible. if you look at his cabinet picks, given the exhaustion, the seriousness of the political divide, trying to build this is by far the wisest of choices even if it does in some cases alienate and upset some of the far left of his party. some cases alienate and upset some of the far left of his partylj some cases alienate and upset some of the far left of his party. i do think biden is going to find it particularly difficult because the republicans actually are rather well placed, they do have the hope that trump gets tied up in litigation, which he probably will for the next

three orfour years, he which he probably will for the next three or four years, he will spend most of his time in court. they don't want him to set up his own party, a third party run a bit like ross perot in 1992. inaudible. a lot of the forces unleashed by trump, i would say the republicans are not in bad shape. brexit — it's the gift that keeps on giving. well, for headline writers at least. threats and deadlines are made and passed. on sunday, there was optimism after the latest deadline was reached — and the uk and eu decided to let it pass and keep on talking instead. at the end of the week pessism — no trade deal, warned borisjohnson, unless europe moves "significa ntly" on fish. good job, as dateline was the first to reveal, that the prime minister is off to india next month in the hunt for a free trade deal. but again, things aren't always

quite as they are presented. inaudible. there are messages showing that they wa nt to there are messages showing that they want to be shown to be tough and stand up to the other side dot ultimately what it comes down to is almost all of the deal is done, hundreds of pages of text and individual agreements, hundreds of pages of text and individualagreements, it hundreds of pages of text and individual agreements, it is all there effectively apart from a couple of minor things on level playing fields, we think... but the big issue is fish. no deal is still

very possible, simply because the can is always kicked down the road and people think this is what the european union does and it will be a deal at one minute to midnight on the final day. the split on fish and the final day. the split on fish and the golfing understanding is still so wide that one or both sides is going to have to move quite a lot on fishing rights and access to british waters after the transition period... you get a disaster, you getan period... you get a disaster, you get an outcome that wasn't intended to happen, almost by accident, because both sides misread each other. at the moment they are genuinely stuck. the british negotiator lord frost issued his warning the other night, saying that the divisions, the stumbling blocks

are serious. he was trying to put people on notice that no deal, it's a 50-50 people on notice that no deal, it's a 50—50 potential outcome. people on notice that no deal, it's a 50-50 potential outcome. and what is incredible about this is that fisheries is really such a small pa rt of fisheries is really such a small part of the european economy. depending on the numbers you read, it is about 0.01% of the british economy. economically inconsequential, but let's not be dismissive, because if you are a fissure in the coastal regions, it matters, it is yourjob. —— make a fisher. people understand territorial waters. they understand the rights of fishing. and so it becomes a tangible thing about taking back control, and that is the

mantra brexit was sold on. so while it is inconsequential beyond the small group of people directly affected, it has a much bigger role, an outsized role i would say, given its place in the economy. so it becomes this political symbol that simply neither side wants to back down. this opportunity the prime minister has taken to visit india, to bea minister has taken to visit india, to be a guest of honour at the independence celebrations in january, you can see the reason. but the foreign secretary said... inaudible. to seal the deal. around asia and the pacific region, the financial opportunities for a relatively small country geographically, a long way away, like britain? it is quite tricky. britain has a difficult road

ahead. looking at china, britain's third—largest trading partner, way before, when boris johnson third—largest trading partner, way before, when borisjohnson was touting the benefits of brexit, he was talking about signing a trade deal with china. well now relations with china have plummeted in the past few years. and that is because china has changed its outlook on foreign policy. it has adopted a much more assertive foreign policy. the mantra that you are either with us or the mantra that you are either with us or against us. we have seen this happen with several countries where china has taken trade and used it to punish many countries that have criticised beijing on human rights. australia, we have seen it play out with norway, south korea, canada, it has happened over and over. and now britain is wading into it as well, because we have seen borisjohnson and his colleagues criticising china on its treatment of the uighurs. and

the decision on 56. when britain is looking at its biggest trading partners and wondering whether it can sign favourable trading deals, it's going to be very difficult for it's going to be very difficult for it to sign one with china for example. so really those trading deals which are right for the picking, i'm not sure if they are there. there was a big debate about using the empire and getting trade arrangements with australia and so on. we have a commonwealth now. do the commonwealth nations open up much potential opportunity? australia, new zealand, do they feel well disposed towards the uk? the uk more or less abandoned then when it joined europe. maybe a little, on the fringes. i have long been a sceptic on the centrality, the idea that trade deals are central to the whole project of brexit. actually

quite a bit of progress seems to have been made by the department for trade, they have rolled over a lot of deals and they seem optimistic about what comes. britain is largely about what comes. britain is largely a domestic economy, still one of the most open global economies in the world, but even so, more than 70% of its economy is domestic. the idea that because we can't sign a trade deal with china, which the british after the experience of covid—19 and everything going on in security terms, there is no way a british government is going to want to sign a trade deal with china. other parts of asia, where the brits will try and do favourable deals, of course they will, but it's a rolling process. on the united states, other than a brief window before the midterms, when the republicans got hammered, there has never really been the likelihood of a big

all—encompassing trade deal with the us. we might get smaller sector deals and progress, but the us and the uk do loads of trade at the moment now, without an all—encompassing trade deal, and with lots of sector agreements. so there will be more of that. i think it's a process over the course of ten or 20 years, there will be a huge adjustment post covid with people wanting manufacturing to be closer to markets. that is going to ta ke yea rs closer to markets. that is going to take years to resolve. and also the key thing with biden, is there going to bea key thing with biden, is there going to be a reorganisation of the west around the democracy trying to resist china, organising around what borisjohnson was talking about? security and intelligence co—operation against china and russia, does it have a trade connotation as well? it might do.

jeffrey, a last word from you. talking about australia, new zealand, canada, they are marginal, small economies. they are not going to affect the uk economy. the big deal is the one that has to be negotiated with the european union. all the focus needs to be on that right now. less than a fortnight before everything changes. either we go without a deal or we have a deal. borisjohnson needs a deal. his prime ministership is rocky. the coronavirus vaccine has helped. he needs to show he can put this country on a stable course. thank you all very much. that is it for this week. next week we will look back at the year that has been and i will be with you in a fortnight to look ahead to the start of 2021. however you are celebrating the festive season, have a good one.

hello, swollen rivers and flood warnings across western england and wales today, but slightly better news this weekend. the persistent rain has gone, still some big downpours around, but a case of sunshine and showers. more dry and bright weather through the weekend. out there at the moment, sunny conditions developing towards the east before another batch of showers this afternoon. they will keep coming and going across western areas today, showers could be heavy and thundery in places. some gusty winds attached to them. average wind speeds, but across western areas when the showers come through, the winds could be 110—15 mph. overall

still comparatively mild today for stage of december. it will be a cooler night, showers keep going, particularly across southern and western areas later in the night. starry skies. frequent showers in western parts of scotland, temperatures in single figures tonight. much cooler than the past few nights. 3—4 degrees as we start sunday. a fresh start tomorrow, brighter than this morning in some eastern districts. sunshine and showers again. if anything, fewer showers, more dry weather tomorrow. the showers will still be fairly frequent in the west and west of northern ireland. temperatures down a degree, later in the day we will start to see more of the cloud wind and rain towards cornwall and the channel islands. an area of low pressure that will run across southern areas, the strongest winds across france but could hold onto rain all day long in the channel islands. heavy rain to begin with,

lots of surface water around on monday, brightening up for many through the day. brightest in northern ireland, showers in scotla nd northern ireland, showers in scotland turning wintry over the higher ground. 6—7 degrees, 12—13 in the south. a quiet day on tuesday, some rain in the south but we have to keep a close eye on this, potential for a nasty area of low pressure on wednesday. only potential at the moment but could bring strong winds and heavy rain. whether we see it or not, it will be out the way for christmas eve, not a white christmas but could be frosty with lots of dry and white weather too. —— bright weather too.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. uk government ministers meet to decide how to manage rising coronavirus cases in england, amid warnings that a ‘new variant‘ of the virus is causing faster transmission. it comes as more than two thirds of those living in england — 38 million people — are now subject to the toughest restrictions in tier 3. meanwhile, italy imposes a nationwide lockdown over christmas and new year, as it tries to halt the sharp rise in coronavirus infections. americans are set to get a second coronavirus vaccine, as the moderna injection is approved in the us. the uk's chief brexit negotiator has arrived in brussels ahead of more talks with the eu, as senior meps say an agreement