and london we now on the southeast and london we will see a picture which i think begins to link into the new virus variant. next slide please. this is hospital admissions per day in london, east of england, and the southeast from nhs data from september through to now. you can see a gradual increase the number of hospital admissions per day and you can see a very sharp increase during december. this virus has taken off, it's moving fast, and it's leading inevitably to a sharp increase in hospital admissions. inevitably to a sharp increase in hospitaladmissions. next inevitably to a sharp increase in hospital admissions. next slide, please. if we now lookjust at the areas that are moving into tier 4 is the prime minister hasjust said and which is areas in london, the southeast and the east, and look at the numberof southeast and the east, and look at the number of cases, the case rate against time, what you can see is that the number of cases increase

for the case rate increases dramatically. if you look at the dotted line that's for england at the whole, is the case rate increasing to november, decreasing during lockdown and increasing again. but if you look at the solid blue line, which is london, and the southeast and the east and tier 4, you can see southeast and the east and tier 4, you can see a southeast and the east and tier 4, you can see a rapid increase of very sharp increases in rates over the period of december. so we have a particularly fast—moving problem with increased numbers in the area going to cheer for, but a generalised increase across the country. i would like to just spend a moment talking about the new variant. so the new variant, and viruses mutate all the time, but the new variant contains 23 different changes. many of them associated

with the protein that the virus makes. and usually a large number of variance, it's also got variance in areas of the virus that are known to be associated with how the virus binds to cells and enters cells. so there are some changes which caused concern in terms of how the virus looks. but on top of that there are three questions that need to be asked. does the new variant transmits more readily? i:e., does it make an increased chance of spread and growth, the second is does it alter the course of the disease, does that make people sicker, and the third is, does it alter the way that the immune system, the way the body responds to it if it's been previously infected or followed the vaccine. want to do with the first question. there's three different sources of evidence, from genetic studies to frequency studies to laboratory studies, all of which come together to suggest

this virus has a significant substantial increase in transmissibility. and this is also highlighted in this graph which shows the proportion of all cases that were due to the new variant, so the new variant was first thought to have occurred in mid—september sometime in london or kent, and by the middle of november about 28% or so the middle of november about 28% or so of the cases in london and the southeast slightly lower in the east of england, were due to the new variant. so it had grown rapidly. but the week of the 9th of december at these figures were much higher. so in london over 60% of all of the cases with the new variant. so what this tells us is that its new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in terms of its ability to transmit but becoming the dominant variant. it's beating all the others in terms of transmission. so this

virus transmits and spreads fast. does it alter the disease course? the answer seems to be know as far as we can tell at the moment. there's no evidence that causes a more severe disease, causes more hospitalisations, causes more trouble than the other virus. so it's basically looking similar. does it's basically looking similar. does it alter the immune response, it's basically looking similar. does it alterthe immune response, orwas the root of your response was able to recognise that? there's theoretical reasons to suspect that some of the changes might alter some of the immune response and there's nothing that's been seen to suggest that's the case. we are working on the assumption at the moment from all the scientists that the vaccine response should be adequate for this virus. that's needing to be looked at going forward, and we need to keep vigilant about this. but the big change therefore is not the disease progress, not the immunity, but transmission. this virus spreads more easily and therefore more measures are needed to keep it under

control. we absolutely need to stick to the basics of making sure that we reduce our contacts, reduce the ability for this virus to spread, and that's the reason that tougher measures are required to keep this under control. thank you very much. thanks very much, anything you want to add to that? thank you very much then. let's go to questions from the public and then the media. first you laura. why are they still expected to work in tier 3? i some assorted loss to loved ones to covet this terrifies me —— covid. loss to loved ones to covet this terrifies me -- covid. well, laura, your question why shoulders are suspected to work in tier 3, those that are shielding, those who are vulnerable should of course take every step to protect themselves and larkham i hope very much that you are not asked to be working if you

are not asked to be working if you are shielding. anything to add to that? i'm very sorry to hear about your two relatives that have died from this virus, is a very dangerous virus. the shielding patterns are actually being re—looked at, but the view about shielding is that in the first wave shielding did many things that were useful but also many things that were actively harmful, and therefore we change the model for shielding since the first wave. and that includes people being able to get out more come in many situations and also areas around work. but this is something which people were looking at to try to get the optimal balance between isolating people too much and isolating people too much and isolating them enough from the virus. thanks very much. it's good to make from cheshire. in the daily update figures people testing

positive, could you also provide the numberfor positive, could you also provide the number for people that have had the vaccine. well, thanks for that and yes as you have heard from me just now the figure is, that i've been giving today, is 350,000 have so far had theirfirst dose. giving today, is 350,000 have so far had their first dose. and we will make sure that we can keep people regularly updated on the work of the vaccine. let's go to laura koontz burke at the bbc. there were plans treated drop these plants a few days ago but on wednesday you said it would be inhuman to change the plans. i know that's exactly what you've done. are the millions of people whose plants are just been torn up entitled to feel that you just left this too late and you have caused them more personal disruption and upset by doing so is back and can ask the medics who have shared the analysis of this new variant,

you mentioned that porch and down have been looking at this in the earlier press conference this week, can you say of porton down have completed their assessments of it, and professor whitty, if someone is packing a bag right now listening to her watching the stranger leave the southeast by midnight tonight, what should they do? to be forcible just that everybody who has made plans for christmas as i said earlier on, eve ryo ne for christmas as i said earlier on, everyone thus thought about it or the care and love that's going to plans for christmas, we of course bitterly regret the changes that are necessary , bitterly regret the changes that are necessary, but when the facts change you have to change your approach, and the briefing that i had yesterday about those mutations of the virus particularly about the speed of transmission was not possible to ignore. and when the virus changes its method of attack, we asa virus changes its method of attack, we as a country have to change our method of defence and that's what we

are doing. i will take the one that was addressed directly to me. i want to put some numbers out there, because i think that helps to explain why i'm going to get the answer that explain why i'm going to get the answerthat i'm explain why i'm going to get the answer that i'm going to give, but my short answer would be please unpack it at this stage. and the reason for that is if you look at the southeast come if you look at the southeast come if you look at the east of england and london, there's been a really dramatic increase in the portion of the cases that we see that argument will reduce screening tests which are not absolutely exact but pretty accurate, would imply that in the southeast 43% of the virus is now his new variant. in the east of england it's 59%, and in london 62%. ina very england it's 59%, and in london 62%. in a very slightly but those numbers are broadly right, and those of gone up are broadly right, and those of gone up very, very fast over the last few weeks. this is really gonna quit quickly. much lower in other areas of the country, and when you look at

the rates of increase in hospitalisations there's been numbers of people in hospitals across the country, what you see is in the areas where this is very, very in the areas where this is very, very common in the areas where this is very, very common receiving rates of increase of maybe 36% in the east of england, 34% in london, and 28% of the southeast. these are the areas that have significant numbers of this new variant. if you go to the northwest and northeast in these areas has been no increase in hospitalisations, and they are managing to keep things down. if you look at the rates of this new variant in these areas you will see they are much lower. for example yorkshire around 5%. if you have a lower amount of this variant the rate of increase is held by the tears, if you have a very high rate it's not held sufficient by the

tiers, and our big worry is this is going into directions. going up in terms of percentage where it is, it's getting higher and higher proportion of the cases, and as patrick said the chance that someone gets infected with them have to go to hospital or dying at the end of it to be roughly the same as far as we can see so it to be roughly the same as far as we can see so far, it to be roughly the same as far as we can see so far, as it to be roughly the same as far as we can see so far, as the previous variant. and if they were to go with this new variant unwittingly to an area that has a low prevalence and start this being seated even more outside the high prevalence areas that would be a significant risk to the area they went to. so that is the area they went to. so that is the reason why we are really keen that people do not go from these areas, because otherwise we will not only see it going up in the areas authority a problem, we will see it going out to other areas of the country where it currently is not a problem. that, because we understood this information that we advised you really do have to act at this stage, because this is otherwise in every

area of the country and then none of them will be able to hold things with tier 3 and tier 2 elsewhere. thanks very much. to answer the question, they're looking at this all the time, and when data becomes available we will make sure we get it out as soon as we can but we don't have any more information to be shared today. hello there. well, we've seen a lot of heavy rain over recent days, particularly targeting parts of southwest england, southern wales and areas of scotland, as well. and all that water has been running into the river catchments, the rivers now running very high and we've got a number of flood warnings currently in force across the uk — particularly england, wales, scotland — with around 30 flood warnings currently in force. now, weather—wise today it's been a day of sunshine and showers. those showers are particularly widespread across western areas. and overnight tonight, it is across the west and particularly the northwest where we'll continue to see the most frequent showers. so quite a wet night for west

scotland and northern ireland. eastern areas seeing the fewest showers, but nowhere is immune from seeing an odd downpour, and it will stay quite windy — particularly close to our coasts and over some of the hills in the west, with gusts of about 30 or 40 miles an hour. temperatures, not desperately cold — looking at lows of four to six degrees celsius. tomorrow, another day of sunshine and showers and, again, the showers will be most frequent across the northwest and showers tending to merge together to give some longer spells of rain across northern ireland and west scotland as we head into the afternoon. it turns windier here as well. showers probably ease off for a time across wales and southwest england, but it's going to be a cooler day wherever you are — temperatures eight to 11 degrees celsius. into next week, another area of low pressure is going to be sliding its way eastwards across england and wales, bringing another bout of fairly heavy rain. and given that the ground is saturated, we could well see some further localised flooding issues. further north, we've also got

a weather front that will be pushing its way in across scotland — that will be bringing rain which, again, won't be particularly welcome. mild across england and wales — up to 13 or 14 degrees celsius in the warmest spots. further north, it's turning colder on monday. scotland, northern ireland, northern england, temperatures closer to about six degrees celsius. the cold air stays to the north of the uk on tuesday. tuesday and wednesday sees this weather front extending across england and wales, bringing yet more rain. but eventually we are going to see the colder weather across scotland, northern ireland and northern england sinking southwards as we head closer to christmas. so, by the big day, we'll all be in that colder air — temperatures hovering around six to eight degrees celsius through the afternoons. it will be much drier, mind you, with some sunshine and some sharp morning frosts.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 7... nearly 18 million people in london and south—east england move into stricter tier 4 restrictions from midnight — people must stay at home and nonessential shops have to close. for those in tier 4, it means the relaxation of rules at christmas has been scrapped and reduced to one day, the 25th, for the rest of england. we must be realistic. we're sacrificing the chance to see our loved ones this christmas so we have a better chance of protecting their lives so that we can see them at future christmases. the new restrictions are due to a spike in cases that's being blamed on a fast—spreading new variant of the disease. the whole of wales is to be placed under lockdown from midnight,