for half a century the debate on democracy focussed on growth as more and more countriesjoined the league of democratic nations. but since the turn of the century there has been, what the scholar larry diamond has called, "a democratic recession". some believe the movement towards democracy around the world has gone into reverse. today we look at one example, hong kong, which one might have been thought all along to be pretty fragile and another, the united states, which is among the most established democracies in the world. with me to discuss whether trump and his supporters will go quietly as we look forward to the inauguration ofjoe biden on 20th january are bloomberg's stephanie baker and political commentator steve richards. and here in the studio, our diplomatic correspondent james landale. we start with an extraordinary week in american politics. for four years the trump presidency has appeared to be waging a contest with the american constitution. this week, spurred by

the president's invitation to march on the capitol, a band of trump supporters began a riot in washington dc. it was a desperate and rather forlorn attempt to reverse the result of the november election but images flashed across the world of americans attacking their own democratic institutions and five people were killed. stephanie baker how did you feel watching those images and are we past the worst now with just days untiljoe biden takes control? obviously, i was embarrassed, sad and outraged. but in many ways i wasn't surprised. this is the logical conclusion of the trump presidency. he has been lying and undermining democratic constitutions. i think it will go down as one of the biggest national

security failures after 9/11 and perhaps even worse in many respects. there was a digital trail of evidence pointing that this would happen. there will be some kind of 9/11 kind of commission to investigate what went wrong, what exactly happened, what was trump's roll exactly, in preventing a low presence responding to the rioters. i think it obviously puts a huge? over the next 11 days as to what might be possible. i am very worried about what might happen. obviously, there are efforts under way for impeaching him in house. there is an article of impeachment that has already been drawn up. it looks like the democrats in the house will push forward with that next week. last

night, the senate republican leader sent out a memo that indicated that the sun it would not convene to consider that article of impeachment untiljanuary consider that article of impeachment until january the 19th, the consider that article of impeachment untiljanuary the 19th, the day before joe untiljanuary the 19th, the day beforejoe biden untiljanuary the 19th, the day before joe biden is untiljanuary the 19th, the day beforejoe biden is due to be sworn in as the next president. but i don't think it's out of the question that they could pursue impeachment even after biden is sworn in and perhaps than by trump from holding federal office again. it looks unlikely that he would get 17 republicans, which is what you would need for a senate trial to succeed, you need two thirds of the senate to vote in support of it. however, you could argue that it is in many of the republican senator's interests to make sure that he does not run again in 2024 and act as kingmaker

in the republican party for the next four years. we will have to see whether they do push ahead with the impeachment. joe biden doesn't seem too eager to go down that route and is approaching a bipartisan approach. people are angry and if they can't impeach trump over this, it shows a terrible precedent going forward and shows there is an ink seriously wrong with the system. do you think it is politically wise for the democrats to go after trump in that way? or would it be betterfor him to exit as a result of the people's vote in the election last year? i can understand stephanie's view that given what happens there has to be a response, arguably on the scale of impeachment, but i tend towards the latter view. i may be wholly wrong but it strikes me that oi'i wholly wrong but it strikes me that on one wholly wrong but it strikes me that on one level, at least, this was a

cathartic moment in the us. it was cinematic on so many levels. but one of the interesting cinematic qualities was the collapse of that relationship between trump and pence. what went through pans pence's mind before he said he had to make the split when he refused to do trump's bidding in terms of stopping the biden transmission. it seems to me that the disowning of trump at that level and the scale of what went on, that absurd but dangerous rally, is a moment where trump becomes more discredited. he will still have ardent followers but i suspect he will not be a big figure in the republican candidacy for the next presidential election.

he would be a figure on talk shows and faux names and give interviews. because of the scale of what went on to support will be always limited and very influential in the republican party. i think it might be better to let him disappear a defeated figure rather than have the drama of impeachment. i fully accept that the reading of what might happen next could be wholly wrong and stephanie might be right. things are on and stephanie might be right. things are on edge at the moment. but that is what my view of what should happen is. looking at it here partly through the eyes of the foreign office and government, borisjohnson and theresa may reach out to trump and theresa may reach out to trump and there's been a swift turn in the last few days, hasn't there?‘

colleague of mine tweeted that the road to just mask us has got some pretty heavy traffic at the moment. —— the road to damascus. british politicians knew all along that there were certain cautionary notes to be struck here. as the previous speakers have said, there is a division between what is happening immediately now, but also a long—term prison that we must view the current events through. in terms of the choices the republican party has to make in supporting trump in the future, how biden sees this as if it is a moment to take on trump 01’ if it is a moment to take on trump or whether they can heal fractures in american society. the uk and

other allies have to work out what their relationship is with the united states now. how has it changed over the last four years? this will linger long after the departure of donald trump. in terms of its feet view of democracy. the uk is of its feet view of democracy. the ukisa of its feet view of democracy. the uk is a supporter of democracy around the world. it's talking about making a group to support democracy around the world. how can it do this when one of its biggest allies as created a period of chaotic democracy in the last week to cause lots of countries around the world to ask if they want this? for conservatives who have said that the us has been a supporter of brexit

and that trump and byjohnson are similar, all of that is different 110w. similar, all of that is different now. what does this fit in when the us is an uncertain player in the fieldwe are about to see thejoe biden presidency. can he heal this big divide? if trump is taken of stage, will this rallying call die down? just last night, twitter finally banned trump and his campaign handle as well, his campaign handle as well, his campaign account. that will have huge ramifications for trump. he will probably move onto another a right—wing site, to rally the troops. biden is facing an incredibly difficult situation. he's got a very slim majority in the senate which makes it hard for him

to advance his agenda on a number of issues because of the senate filibuster. is a message on wednesday got drowned out because of what happened in the senate? exactly. however, the republican party remains deeply split between the moderate wing, which has decency and democratic principles. the mega far right supporters and conspiracy theorists who are following trump are in the millions. the republicans are in the millions. the republicans are captured by this trump base. almost half of the republican party supported the violent insurrection against the capital, which is astonishing. for biden to get his agenda passed, many things, even

though they have this slim majority, they will need... unless it can get rid of the senate filibuster which requires 60 votes, he will need republicans on his side. how will the republicans respond given the splits within the party and given all of the events this week? hopefully, there will be some bipartisan consensus on figuring out what went wrong here. but trump remains... control over the republican party, just evidenced by the republican meeting this week with many of the members endorsing him. the republican party leader was re—elected and she is a close ally of trump. wellington their backs on trump? they've got every reason to do so they lost the senate and now they have lost the white house. do they have lost the white house. do they change tact and can make? you

follow the british left very closely, steve, there are ties between the democratic party in the us and the british left. do you think the republicans will combust 110w think the republicans will combust now and who will lead to the right in the us? i think this is being analysed across the political spectrum analysed across the political spectrum across analysed across the political spectrum across the united kingdom because of the perhaps exaggerated importance of this special relationship. an exaggerated sense of importance which i think it raises many interesting questions in light of what is happening at the moment. the answer is, i suggest at the end of my previous bit of analysis, people do not know. there is optimism about biden. just

watching his reactions, the speeches he has made every now and again since wednesday, you are dealing with someone so different from trump. there is bound to be an optimism that the united states will begin to engage again with the european union, with the uk, albeit his wariness ofjohnson is a factor in all of this. in terms of the republicans, it's going to be fascinating. when this have been, as i suggested it might have been, a cathartic moment, when even republicans on the right to have worked with trump, who have tried to hailtrump, worked with trump, who have tried to hail trump, have turned away in recent days. will this mean the republican party, which has had an identity crisis for a long time, before trump, will it become, to use

that terrible term, an excuse or triggerfor modernising that terrible term, an excuse or trigger for modernising the republican party? when it split? will be a trump right, as there was with the so—called tea party? these questions being asked but i think the biden presidency is a moment of relief. as biden himself said yesterday, if this was six months to go with the trump presidency, the scale of the crisis would be huge. so it's not.. in terms of the org oration, what are you picking up for the next few days lots of different views of whether trump has the power to control nuclear activity, military action? the concern is not

about some unilateral decision from nowhere on the military front, but a crisis that emerges. there is some clash in the gulf, some issue with iran, some kind of military action is in the white house and that escalates due to the political uncertainty in washington. that is a concern, uncertainty in washington. that is a concern, i think. and you are slightly concerned about that as well. when there is a power vacuum in the us, will other nations take advantage? that is a real concern. it does appear that perhaps an impeachment might force trump to toe the line and the threat of criminal prosecution over inciting this mob attack might temper him and prevent him from lighting another match. that is unclear to me. but the fact that there is a power vacuum in

washington, it's an extraordinarily risky situation if anything else happens around the world or adversaries try to take advantage of that. i do think in the immediate term, trump will pursue pardons for his family, possibly for himself. i have thought for over a year now that the endgame would be that trump would resign and pence would become vice president at the end and pardon him. that still could happen because he is facing so many legal threats. the next 11 days will be fascinating. absolutely. from america, a nation that left british rule to become independent democracy two centuries ago to a country that became an independent democracy to set decades ago, hong kong.

the difference, of course, is hong kong's relationship with china which has regularly acted as if it were reneging on its pledge to respect democracy in hong kong. this week democracy campaigners were rounded up by the authorities and arbitrarily detained. britain and america have condemned the move but china's influence means perhaps global reaction has been more muted. so do commitments to democracy come with a price tag attached, james? so much i thought what we saw in hong kong was extraordinary this week. only about 30 people have actually been detained. what we saw this week was 1000 police officers raiding 76 premises, arresting 53 people, and many of them and not just the usual suspects, their lecturers, people organised with democratic ballots. they are all

involved with a process of choosing candidates for potential future elections. it was a massive hunt. what we saw this week was that sheer scale of the determination of the chinese and hong kong authorities to use this new law. the british government to a very fast to condemn, particularly british foreign secretary, saying this shows the world was misled by the chinese. they said these laws were there to detain serious threats to the chinese and hong kong state, criminals. what you have seen, in the words of dominic grappa, it is been used to crush dissent. as a result, it is not a surprise. this has been foretold, this is what would happen. this has been a cranking app. to answer the question, there was an almost

echoing silence across european capitals when this came in because it came in immediately after the eu and the chinese had signed a big investment deal that had been a long time coming. it was widely seen in diplomatic circles that the chinese crack times this crackdown to come after the deal. this would show us what they can to do with systems that threaten democracy. and the situation in china will change due to what is happening in the us and that could change what happens in the uk too. but the chinese might is vast and growing. you asked if democracy comes at a price or is it negotiable and i think it always has been and always will be. the

pandemic and the economic hit that western democracies are taking now and will continue to take of comic months —— coming months, will make things more potent. the eu assigned this big investment deal with china. in context of the economic collapse of those countries, they must have signed it with a degree of relief, whilst knowing the contentious nature of the relationship they were forming. now, johnson, who began challenging trump over hawaii, he was keen on getting that who i deal in the uk and had to succumb from resistance from his backbenchers. i think it is something that the uk are now citing as a common bond with biden as a resolution to address some of the issues about hong kong

and china. but the economic might of china in the context of declining economies around the west, i think will be the enduring dynamic. can i ask you very briefly, stephanie, your quick take on the contrast between hong kong and washington this week because like it's been stark, ina this week because like it's been stark, in a way. it has. it looks like beijing is trying to take advantage of the lack of leadership and the political power vacuum in washington. we will probably follow a similartough washington. we will probably follow a similar tough stance on china like trump did better with a less rough and tumble approach. i think we will try to focus on alliances with china on things like human rights abuses. it will be very difficult. the us no longer has a moral authority to

lecture other countries on democracy due to events this week. i think that will take years to recover. finally, i want all our guests to give us something uplifting of the main agenda today. did you find anything, steve? took me ages. then i found it was brexit. it is still around. the christmas trade deal is still provisional. those of us who get masochistic enjoyment out of those twists and turns, the good news is, there will be twists and turns for years to come. something to look forward to in this bleak weekend. yes indeed. stephanie, did you find anything? the sun into an office in georgia. 75,000 people we re office in georgia. 75,000 people were registered to vote after the

presidential election. this is an amazing turnout, showing that democracy is alive and well. more than half of those who registered to vote where african americans. many of them were turned away in november because they had been purged from voter rules. democracy is not dead. the trump even has sparked this incredible civic engagement. one other thing i want to say which is super positive, everyone is worried about the vaccine is not working against these mutant strains. there we re against these mutant strains. there were studies this week that showed that the pfizer vaccine does appear to work against the new strain of the virus. that's very good news. small reshuffle this year. in the uk cabinet. we now have one person in

charge of the environmental summit later this year. that will be seen by many diplomats as a good thing. the uk hopes this will give us some diplomatic leverage in the next few months. thank you all so much for your time this week in another big week. the news agenda doesn't really stop. for me and my family, our lockdown has been ameliorated a little bit by watching the west wing, a warmer, less dramatic version of american politics than what we have seen the few days. that's it for dateline london for this week. thanks to all my guests stephanie baker, steve richards and james landale. shaun ley is back next week at the same time.

some of the freezing fog we have seen some of the freezing fog we have seen this morning could linger all day. it was bitterly cold where we saw the sunshine this thing. it was the coldest night for more than a decade for parts of northern ireland and northern england. freezing fog in southern areas. wintry showers close to the south coast. cloudy skies will invade across northern ireland this afternoon and northern and western scotland. avoid got rain falling on frozen services. still i see. that will be a risk throughout the day here. we see the sunshine, although temperatures won't rise very high, it's only had snow yesterday. much brighter. temperatures recovering a little bit in scotland. that's because we have got the atlantic influence. stained

bitterly cold weather fog lingers. cold air follows in bitterly cold weather fog lingers. cold airfollows in behind bitterly cold weather fog lingers. cold air follows in behind with cold showers returning and frosty conditions. even when we do have the weather front, grant is still frozen. rain falling onto the frozen services is not good. this ridge of high pressure will keep fine and settled weather in southern areas. mulberry is in the north blowing in further patches of rain. perhaps fog will still be with us for a while in southern areas. it will be rather showery in nature, the rain, but some snow over the hills. some cloud starting to break elsewhere in some parts of the uk. heavy rain back in the north and west. temperatures tomorrow a slightly elevated, slightly less cold than it has been in recent days, with a brisk breeze that will continue into the start of next week as well. even though we have got slightly higher

temperatures, i don't think it will feel particularly warm. we are bringing atlantic and. bring in further weather fronts to the north and west but also bring in that milder and. as that comes in, we will see two things happening. the rain on the weather fronts but then, after that,, or with that, the rain as well. there could be localised flooding. we'll be keeping an eye on that very closely. warnings on the website. as you look into next week, things won't be as cold as they have been. still some snow on the hills. goodbye for now.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. a boeing 737, believed to be carrying more than 50 people, has gone missing after take—off in indonesia. act like you have the virus. that's the advice in a new campaign in the uk urging people to abide by lockdown rules. donald trump is banned permanently from twitter because of concerns his tweets could incite more violence. democrats reveal the draft of a new impeachment resolution against donald trump — the president elect accuses him of inciting an insurrection and endangering the security of the us. he has been an embarrassment to the country. embarrassed us around the world. not worthy. not worthy to hold that office.