democrats in the us have introduced a resolution to impeach president trump, for a second time. this time, it's a single charge of inciting insurrection, for his role in last week's attack on capitol hill. democrats are also asking the trump cabinet to strip him of his presidential powers. president trump's outgoing administration has returned cuba to the official us blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism. with nine days left in office, the secretary of state, mike pompeo, accused the government in havana of supporting international terror and subverting justice, citing cuba's ties to venezuela's leader, nicolas maduro. indonesian divers are spending a third day looking for black box recorders from the sri—wijaya airjet that crashed into the sea with 62 people on board. the plane crashed just four minutes after taking off from jakarta. now on bbc news, hardtalk.

welcome to hard tour, i am stephen sackur. the coronavirus is a durable and evolving enemy. nowhere is that more evident than in south africa, the hardest hit nation in africa, now grappling with a highly transmissible new strain of covid—19 that is causing international concern. my guest ‘s biologist barry schoub, chair of the south african government advisory committee on covid—19 vaccines. what does south africa's covid crisis mean for the worldwide effort to end the pandemic?

professor barry schoub in johannesburg, welcome to hardtalk. good afternoon, stephen. on cue. it's good to have you on the show. how bleak is the covid picture in your country, south africa, right now? it is bleak. we are well into our second wave which is really manifesting quite more seriously than our first wave. we are seriously than our first wave. we a re really seriously than our first wave. we are really averaging about 18,000- 20,000 new we are really averaging about 18,000— 20,000 new cases per day as against the highest peak that we had in ourfirst day as against the highest peak that we had in our first wave of about 1a,000 so it gives you some idea that we are on a steep upward trajectory of our second wave so it is very worrying and we are worrying it's going to mop move up ——

move up to our province of gauteng were johannesburg is located and it will expand quite considerably, so it is a worry. would it be fair to say in the language we use in this pandemic that right now, in south africa, it is out of control? well, you know, we try to control it. at the moment, we don't have a vaccine control but we do have the other infection prevention controls and that could, with human behavioural controls, could, to some extent, to a significant extent, control it. so is it out—of—control? certainly it's expanding. can it be controlled? it can be ameliorated, yes. how much of this is linked to the fact that you in south africa have a new strain of coronavirus, i've seen it described as variant

501, e484k. what you call it, it is highly transmissible, not more dangerous to any individual who has got it but much more transmissible. is this the reason why south africa is in the middle of this crisis? stephen, to answer, it isa crisis? stephen, to answer, it is a combination of factors. certainly human behaviour triggered the second wave. we had a massive super spreading eventin had a massive super spreading event in the country. students going on a musicalfestival. that started it, triggered it but the variant, as you say, which is considerably more infectious is also contributing to it. i think it's a combination of both. i think one of the big problems is that 110w one of the big problems is that now in our second wave, people are tired of all these infection prevention matters —— measures. in the first wave, people were much more compliant because of was unknown, there was a lot more anxiety but now with the second wave, u nfortu nately, with the second wave, unfortunately, people are not totally, or not significantly even sticking to what they

should be sticking so that, to a large extent, is driving it. and the variant is also helping it along. president ramaphosa said, "we have let our guard down." in late december, he put in restrictions which people are calling a de facto lockdown. in some ways, it is an odd one, very draconian, you have a curfew from nine o'clock in the evening until six o'clock in the morning, where few countries have a full on cu rfew few countries have a full on curfew but in other ways, it's not coney and at all because up until early evening, you can still get a meal in a restau ra nt, still get a meal in a restaurant, you can meet with friends indoors, you can still gathering outside venues. —— not draconian. as south africa got this wrong? i don't think so. got this wrong? i don't think so. the problem is really balancing and keeping the economy going because as you know, our economy is not in great shape, to put it mildly,

and a kind of impose restrictions that would affect the economy would be very, very harmful to the country so the government was really faced with a problem... hang on, hang on, let's stop you right there. are you saying it's more important to keep the restau ra nt important to keep the restaurant industry alive manages to keep thousands of industry alive who are going to die of covid—19 because they are going to catch it in restau ra nts are going to catch it in restaurants in the mid—afternoon and early evening? that's a very tricky question, stephen. no, ithink we had to do a calculation, really. how many people would get into within the restaurant? i don't think there'd be a significant number. it's the major gatherings and this has been sown scientifically, a recent publication showed this, the gatherings, festival type gatherings. —— shown. restau ra nts gatherings. —— shown. restaurants have strict rules about wearing a mask coming into the restaurant, taking the mask off while you are eating but avoiding the mixing, the waiters wearing masks, hand

sanitisers, at cetera, so those precautions are in place to try to limit the spread. on the other hand the problems of course in our country is that if you have to draconian lockdown measure, for example, it affects other health issues because if there is a shop down, people stayed home, for example, and it's been shown quite clearly in numbers that other health things, maintenance of hiv and tb therapy, antenatal, those things do suffer so you have to kind of balance the cost of the restrictions, economic and health costs, this is what we are saving from a public health point of view in terms of covid spread. i think thatjuggling act is a fine act. it is based on science. very often it does sound, to some extent, contradictory and may to some extent has been lampooned but i think that it has been really more or less worked out. keep the economy ok, keep the other

health sector, maintenance therapy ok at the same time, wait up to what are going to prevent in terms of covid so the curfew, for example, is a very limited damage to the economy but it does limit, for example, alcohol drinking. there is alcoholism. trauma, which can overload the hospital system, at cetera, at cetera. but in brief, the president is clearly on the cusp of extending the lockdown or restrictions, at least another month, but there is a big question about whether he is going to make them tougher. as your country's leading via ologist, do you think they should be tougher right now?|j think should be tougher right now?” think we really are in quite a precarious position with covid, which is expanding rapidly as i mentioned earlier and i think certain restrictions do need to be tightened. some need to be prolonged. i don't think

personally, as a virologist, we need to go into hard lockdown, what we call lockdown five, is going to be too damaging to the other things, the economy and other things, the economy and other health. explain something that really puzzles me. why is it that across the continent of africa, most countries are giving us readouts, official stats on coronavirus which suggests they have been hit much less hard than for example the united states and most of western europe and yet the most prosperous country in the entire continent, the country with the best healthcare infrastructure and the most modern economy, the most sophisticated economy in africa is the country where coronavirus has impacted artist. in many ways, it's counterintuitive. —— artist.

what has led south africa to a european style experience with coronavirus when the rest of africa, thank god, appears to have escaped more likely?” think it is a combination of factors. everything else is a combination of factors. it is a highly urbanised country, an industrialised country and i think that goes with the spread of coronavirus because it facilitates people coming together and congregating in environments and that facilitates the spread of the virus and that is why it spread in europe much more so than in south africa, particularly in your country, the united kingdom, much more so than in south africa, because that kind of industrialised environment does promote the spread of the virus. south africa is a much more industrialised country than many of our neighbouring countries. that is one. the second factor is urbanisation. many of these countries are largely rural and we know that rural environments where people are more spread out in an outdoor environment probably decreases the spread of the

virus. many of the countries of course our tropical countries, a lot of sunlight, a lot of our doors, that probably also decreases the spread of the virus and probably also to a very significant extent is the degree of reporting. i think there is a significant amount of underreporting of cases, underreporting of mortality in the countries to the north of us. the countries to the north of us. we have a pretty good reporting system, not ideal, i ee, reporting system, not ideal, i agree, but had good and certainly much better than our neighbouring countries. you also have these deep inequalities in south africa. i read one extraordinary statistic in one of the cities hit hardest by covid, paul delivered —— port elizabeth, there were 59 ventilators, 59 people on ventilators in hospital, 87 of those were an hospitals, only two in public hospitals. if you are poor in south africa today, if you get

covid, your chances of getting it and dying are way higher, are they not? you are right, you are right, that is one of the problems, one of the things you do have to focus on. i think the eastern cape is you mention, port elizabeth, is it particularly deprived part of the country. i don't think that ratio would apply in johannesburg or cape town or durban. you might have it but i don't think the ratio, you u nfortu nately don't think the ratio, you unfortunately picked the worst example, but you are absolutely correct, there is that equality, that needs to be addressed as quickly as possible. does south africa need to be isolated from the rest of africa right now? i noticed today people are still blowing across the bridge border with zimbabwe. zimbabwe can ill afford to get the kind of infection rate that south africa has today and one would argue many neighbouring countries as well. should south

africa be cut off from the rest of the african continent? you know, stephen, the problem with that expression cut off, it doesn't really work. it's been tried with so many infectious diseases. these infections do have a habit of going across the border, no matter what precautions you put in but having said that, there are precautions in place and all the land border crossings so people that go across from, from example, south africa to zimbabwe or mozambique or neighbouring countries, they do have to have a macro test to ensure they are negative and only a day are negative are they allowed across the border which causes problems because there are big on chops and traffic snarl ups but it has beenin traffic snarl ups but it has been in place for a little while still. -- bunch-ups. let's go to vaccines, which is yourdomain, asa let's go to vaccines, which is your domain, as a virologist, the guy chairing the advisory

committee, telling the government how to handle its faxing strategy. there are many critics in your country who think the government has bungled this. you only have, as i understand it, 1 million vials of vaccine that are due to be in south africa to the course of this month and an extra 500,000 coming in february, for a country with a population of some 60 million plus, this is disastrous. no, i think disastrous is a bit of an exaggeration, with all due respect. that 1 million exaggeration, with all due respect. that1 million coming at the end of this month, half at the end of this month, half a million coming, are earmarked for the highest priority, or healthcare workers. there is extensive bilateral negotiation going on with various manufacturers to have a vaccine rollout and the department, the minister of health is confident we will be able to immunise the entire, what, two—thirds of the population which is the earmarked, which is the end,

what we need to get to get herd immunity. we need to immunise 67%, two—thirds of the population to get herd immunity. that is about 110 million of the adult population and he is pretty confident we are going to get to that stage. hang on, professor schoub. you are talking about immunising 110 million people to get some sort of collective immunity. that is 80 million doses of vaccine, because everybody needs to doses. you are currently telling me you've only got on order 1.5 million doses and you are telling me this isn't disastrous? sounds terrible and it's not just me, disastrous? sounds terrible and it's notjust me, ijust noticed a few days ago a group of nine of south africa's most eminent scientists slammed the vaccine situation saying, "it beggars belief that south africa, against all reasonable expectation, finds itself in the group of poorest, most vulnerable countries dependent

on the international covax programme for access to vaccine yet we in south africa are not a poor country." that is an unfortunate... i don't want to use too strong a term, iam don't want to use too strong a term, i am not sure don't want to use too strong a term, iam not sure i don't want to use too strong a term, i am not sure i would use the term eminent scientists, i don't think their science is that eminent, and i don't think that eminent, and i don't think that i think they are interfering with the truth as well. forgive me, but what is wrong with their analysis when they say south africa is very much a middle income country, it has got massive resources, and yet it is as vulnerable, right now, to the lack and yet it is as vulnerable, right now, to the as k and yet it is as vulnerable, right now, to the as some of supplier vaccine, as some of the poorest countries on i the1.5 me explain. i think the 1.5 million is on its way, there me explain. i think the 1.5 million is, n its way, there me explain. i think the 1.5 million is, and way, there me explain. i think the 1.5 million is, and unfortunately vaccine is, and unfortunately there are nondisclosure agreements which i have side which i can't reveal on here which i can't reveal on here which will assure the country a

vaccine for the entire year. that is negotiation which is taking place. the minister has in fact mentioned that. but u nfortu nately in fact mentioned that. but unfortunately our eminent colleagues ignore that, and they might have another agenda, which causes them to kind of go ona which causes them to kind of go on a rampage, literally a rampage, you know, it is interesting, if you look at the covid epidemic, it has three consequences. conspiracy theories, miracle drugs, such as chloroquine, and the vaccine and also the blame game. and the blame game unfortunately is taken up by the scientists, which is very unfortunate and i will tell you why it is u nfortu nate. will tell you why it is unfortunate. it is undermining trust. it is undermining trust in the government, and authorities, to get out of the infection control procedures like wearing masks, physical distancing, socially isolating, and if the public is undermining the trust of these

precautions which are going out, i mentioned that in the article... i know. you know what, i read your article with great care. and when you say people are playing the blame game it seems to me you are playing the blame game two. first of all, you are blaming people who ran certain trials in your country, trials of vaccines, because you say those people should have made sure when they agreed to do the trial work that they got guaranteed suppliers of the vaccines after the trial. so you are blaming other people, not yourself, for that. you're also blaming the rich countries of the world. you say they have been indulging in what you call a "a vaccine grab", hoovering up a "a vaccine grab", hoovering up most of the available vaccines coming out of the world's pharmaceutical companies. so on both counts, you are the blame gamer. no commitment i tell you i am blaming? i am blending the system. i am blaming the system, because i think vaccines should be treated not as other commodities. vaccines

need to be taken out of the market economy, because vaccines are different to other commodities. and i think that is the crux of the problem. because when profit drives the purchase of vaccines, this is the unfortunate, this is the casualties. it is unfortunate because it is not only are social responsibility, it is a responsibility when you are in a pandemic that the entire world, low income countries, middle income countries, high income countries, get equitable access to vaccines. what has happened, and you can't deny it, is that there are 13% of the world ‘s population pre— buying 50% of the production of vaccines. you buying 50% of the production of vaccines. you mean buying 50% of the production of vaccines. you mean 13% of buying 50% of the production of vaccines. you mean 1396 of the world's which nations of the world, hugged furthered up a lot of the vaccine that is available? that is what you are saying? exactly that. exactly that. it is not only social responsibilities, it is actually in sensibility. because pandemics don't

recognise borders. pandemics spread across borders. and if you have a country or a region where advice is circulating, evenif where advice is circulating, even if your country is protected by vaccines it can never be protected 100%, but vaccine will find its way into the saigon countries. that is one problem. the second problem isa one problem. the second problem is a biological problem. if the virus is circulating in one point of the world, that is when it is going to pick up these mutations, which is going to threaten the rest of the world. listen, i totally understand the point you are making, the interconnectedness of it all, and the equitable nature of the system you want to see, but i come back to this one point. you are the guy who was the chief adviser to your government on vaccines. yours is not a poor government. was it not your national duty as a south african to tell the government that they should be buying up substantial amounts of vaccine? months and months ago, when the uk government was doing it, the us government was

doing it, the us government was doing it? even africa could have afforded to do it as well, but you chose not to, and that is why these eminent or not scientists and others have accused you of being asleep at the wheel. no, but stephen, the reason for that, the reason for thatis, reason for that, the reason for that is, let me correct you. we are not a wealthy country. we are not a wealthy country. we area are not a wealthy country. we are a middle income country which has got severe economic woes. we were faced, and it is very easy to go now and retrospectively look at other factors, but we were faced at the time with putting down 2.4 billion round, south african rand, which is a substantial amount of money, on deposit, non—refundable deposit, during vaccine trials, the vaccines which at that stage we didn't know whether they were going to work or not. the high income countries could afford to do that. because if the vaccine didn't pan out, wasn't suitable for the registration authorities, those deposits would not affect their economies in the same way.

look, i do not, our advisory did recommend, and this is published on our website, to negotiate through bilateral negotiations, for whatever reason, the treasury or the department of the government could not afford to .4 billion round deposit at risk. right, 0k, round deposit at risk. right, ok, very clear, it was about money. and i get that message loud and clear. the united kingdom, which as you have pointed out, has a bigger covid crisis in south africa right now, the uk has decided that to ensure the maximum collective safety of the community, they are going to roll out the vaccine by prioritising first doses and not giving the second doses and not giving the second dose after three weeks, but using more of the available doses for first dose use, and extending the period until the second dose, as long as 12 weeks. well south africa do that as well to offer

protection to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible? we may do that. it has got prose and it has got cons. the disadvantage, of course, is that you have a 12 week period of vulnerability, a 12 or ten week period of vulnerability. so we need to evaluate how the vaccine is going to roll out. is that feasible? it would be very advantageous, as you mentioned, because it is being rolled out in the united kingdom. so we may well do that. but i think we need to look at the population, how the vaccine is reaching out to particular parts of the population, and make that evaluation at a later stage. a final question which people around the world will really wa nt people around the world will really want a clear answer to. in your view, is the south african mutation, the variant of the covid—19 vaccine, going to be more resistant to the vaccines that we currently have, or not? in basic terms, should we be deeply worried about these south african variation? i was waiting for

that question. stephen, the a nswer that question. stephen, the answer is that this is intense research done in south africa and worldwide, looking at our variant, at the brazilian variant, at the brazilian variant, in other words, the variance with additional mutations to the united kingdom variant. at this stage it is looking good, but i must say it is preliminary. preliminary evidence seems to point to the vaccine being effective, but it is still being intensively researched. hopefully it still will be effective. so truly, you don't know? you are being optimistic with me, but you don't know yet whether your variant of covid—19 might do much more resistant to the international vaccines? we have got indications that it will not be resistant. but the jury is still out, because the research has not been completed. we have to leave it there, but i thank you so very much forjoining me on hardtalk stop thank you very much,

stephen. thank you for having me. i have my answers were all right. hello there. we've got a battle of the air masses taking place across the uk during this week. on monday, it was pretty mild, breezy for most, but today, it is brighter and sunny but colder. for many of us, that is away from the far south—west which will remain quite wet and mild. that plume of cold air has been moving southwards overnight into tuesday it will be across most of the country away from the south—west corner and where this weather front

here will continue to bring outbreaks of rain. it is a cold, bright, icy start across much of scotland, northern england through the morning. we will see wintry showers affecting north—eastern scotland, perhaps some north sea coasts being blown in on a cold wind. wales, south—west england stays rather dry, cloudy outbreaks of rain but mild here as you can see temperatures in double figures, much of northern ireland, scotland, for most of england and wales to the north east, it will be bright but much chillier as temperatures in the low single digits. as we head through tuesday night, a cold one across central and eastern areas, perhaps frost around, rain out west will continue to slowly work its way eastwards. it could be heavy in places, bumps in the cold air and likely to see some sleet and snow on its leading edge, but quite a contrast in temperatures to start a bit of a complicated weather story going on across the middle part of the week, a real battle of the air masses, the wedge of milder air with outbreaks of rain will be slowly pushing east and bumping into the cold air to the east of the uk. a bit of a headache to where the sleet and snow will be falling. but it could be very wet across central and western areas with localised flooding in places as air, sleet and snow and particularly

across the high ground of central eastern scotland and eastern england as well and the far north staying dry again in a real temperature contrast from west to east. through wednesday evening and overnight, we could see some disruption from the snow across central, eastern and northern scotland and eastern england, but further west, it'll be mainly heavy rain. we have to stay tuned to the forecast, still some uncertainty with it. as we move out of thursday and into friday, that weather front fizzles away as the pressure builds in, but we see a return to the blue colours, it will be turning colder. so that rain slowly fizzles out on thursday and also some wintriness in eastern areas, mild in the south and drier and brighter and cooler on friday.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. i'm sally bundock. democrats in the us congress move forward with impeachment plans against president trump, the message is clear he must be held accountable. and the fbi warns that armed protests could take place across the country. the british prime minister, borisjohnson, says he's prepared to impose tougher lockdown restrictions in the uk, if people ignore the current guidance. indonesia's search for answers, divers spend a third day looking for black box recorders from the sriwijaya airjet that crashed into the sea. facing up to the past — the irish republic publishes findings into the sufferings

of unmarried mothers