this is bbc news. the headlines... hopes the lockdown is working — the uk's r numberfalls below one for the first time in over a month, while the percentage of positive covid cases has also fallen slightly in england. but the death toll continues to climb. a further 1,401 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus. police break up a wedding party with 400 guests being held at a school in north london. and retail sales suffer their largest annual fall on record, because of coronavirus, with clothing sales particularly hard hit.

that afternoon. the prime minister will be leading a downing street press conference in just under half an hour on what has been a busy day of coronavirus news. figures released in the last hour show a further 1,401 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus — the fourth successive day that number has been above 1000. a further 40,261 people have tested positive for the virus. that's up slightly on yesterday but down on the same figure last week. the uk's r number, the measure of whether the epidemic is growing or shrinking, is at or below one for the first time since early december. government scientists say the virus is reproducing at a rate of between 0.8 and 1. separate figures show that the number of people with coronavirus is falling slightly

across england, but remains high in all four nations. over 5.3 million people have now been vaccinated across the uk and the government says over 5,000 armed forces personnel are helping out in hospitals and vaccination centres across the uk. the largest military resilience operation in peacetime. 0ur health correspondent katharine da costa is with me now. a lot of figures as there often are on a friday but what does it all .2, how would you characterise where we are? ~ , ., ., , are? with the r below one it is encouraging — are? with the r below one it is encouraging but _ are? with the r below one it is encouraging but too _ are? with the r below one it is encouraging but too soon - are? with the r below one it is encouraging but too soon to i encouraging but too soon to celebrate because there are regional variations in england so it is lower in london, the south—east and east of england, areas where we saw the new variant spreading quickly in tier 4 and stricter measures brought in to bring that down, so falling quickly there but taking longer to fall in other areas, the southwest,

north west and. r below one match of the data that we are seeing, suggesting we have passed the peak in new infections and we are seeing a slow decline although from a high level and experts think the fall will take much longer than we saw in the first lockdown in the spring. if we turn to 0ns, we know a slight decrease in infections in england where one in 55 had the virus in the week to last saturday, hire in london at one in 35 and infections have levelled in wales and scotland but there has been an increase in northern ireland. and there is a lag between infections, so although we are seeing infections are starting to fall, we know it will be some while yet before we see easing on hospital admissions and sometime beyond that to see the number of deaths falling to. some say it might be too soon to say if the lockdown

is having a full impact but we will get more data from imperial college and the office for national statistics next week that might give more indications as to whether current restrictions are enough to bring the spread of the virus down or whether stricter measures need to be considered. find or whether stricter measures need to be considered-— be considered. and looking at the fiuures be considered. and looking at the figures today. _ be considered. and looking at the figures today, we _ be considered. and looking at the figures today, we have _ be considered. and looking at the figures today, we have the - be considered. and looking at the l figures today, we have the number be considered. and looking at the - figures today, we have the number of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus and the number of cases, so what do you read into those figures? fiber you read into those figures? over 40,000 new— you read into those figures? over 40,000 new cases _ you read into those figures? or 40,000 new cases today, it's been below 40,000 for the last five days but daily numbers canjump below 40,000 for the last five days but daily numbers can jump around below 40,000 for the last five days but daily numbers canjump around a bit and experts say it's often better to look at the rolling a seven day average which has been around 38,000. it is likely that we passed the peak around 60,000 in early january. passed the peak around 60,000 in earlyjanuary. with passed the peak around 60,000 in early january. with deaths, passed the peak around 60,000 in earlyjanuary. with deaths, 1401 of the rolling average is about 1200 per day and we have seen some record

results recorded this week. sadly, we will see high numbers of deaths are continuing because we have seen high levels of infections. that means pressure continuing on the nhs. we know around 4000 daily covid admissions which is putting huge strain on hospitals across the country. there are over 38,000 covid patients in hospitals across the uk which is getting close to double the number that were in hospitals at the first peak in the spring. and nearly 4000 patients are on ventilators. we heard just yesterday about a third of hospital saying their critical care beds were more than 95% full. there is huge pressure there. the glimmer of hope is the vaccination roll—out and as you said, 5.3 million have had theirfirst dose and that will start to ease pressure on the nhs but it is going to take many weeks.

on the nhs but it is going to take many weeks— on the nhs but it is going to take many weeks. on the nhs but it is going to take man weeks. , ., ., many weeks. many thanks, and we will seak aaain many weeks. many thanks, and we will speak again nearer _ many weeks. many thanks, and we will speak again nearer the _ many weeks. many thanks, and we will speak again nearer the press _ speak again nearer the press briefing. northern ireland has recorded its highest weekly death figures since the pandemic began, with 156 people dying in the week ending the 15th january. some health trusts say they had no option but to cancel some cancer surgery due to the pressure put on services by coronavirus. 0ur ireland correspondent chris page is in belfast. these are grim details so fill in the picture for us as to what is going on in northern ireland. the fiuures do going on in northern ireland. tie; figures do paint going on in northern ireland. tue: figures do paint a going on in northern ireland. tug; figures do paint a pretty bleak picture, it has to be said. at the latest weekly figures released by the official government statistics agency said that last week there were 153 deaths in northern ireland in which covid—19 was listed as a cause of death on the death certificate, the highest weekly forget yet and it takes the total

thatis forget yet and it takes the total that is kept by that agency, the northern island statistics and research agency, to more than 2000. when you look at the picture in hospitals, nearly 900 patients are being treated in hospitals for covid—19 and that is about three times the number that were in hospitals at the peak of the first wave in april although it has to be said that during the first wave northern ireland fared a little better in general terms than other parts of the uk. that is why the devolved government here, the stormont executive, has decided the lockdown which has been in force here since boxing day, will not be ending in early february at initially was the intention but will go on until at least the 5th of march but strong hints are being dropped that it will go on for longer than that with talk of restrictions on staying in place until easter at the beginning of april and maybe even beyond. schools have moved to remote learning and until the february half term at the moment but there is a growing expectation that remote learning for pupils will be extended beyond that,

perhaps to the 5th of march to bring it in line with other lockdown measures. the more positive news, the r number in this part of the uk is between .65 and 0.85 so it's being sustained but also the vaccination programme is continuing with so far more than 150,000 people receiving at least their first dose of the vaccine and i make that to be just over 10% of the population. ministers and business leaders and medics are still trying to strike some kind of positive note, trying to help people get through these very challenging weeks while at the same time saying to make no mistake, the virus is in a particular deadly phase and people must comply by the rules. ., ~' , ., phase and people must comply by the rules. ., ~ i. . phase and people must comply by the rules. . ~' ,, . , rules. thank you so much, chris pace. the pressure on hospitals remains profound, and is affecting the care notjust of coronavirus patients but other patients too. over 5,000 armed forces personnel are now helping out in hospitals and vaccination centres

across the uk — and the government is warning that the numbers of cases remain �*dangerously high�*, despite some indications that the rate of infection may be shrinking. dr ian higginson is the vice president of the royal college of emergency medicine. hejoins me now, good afternoon. i suppose we are

exhausted at the moment but they are doing the best they can for all our patients. we doing the best they can for all our atients. ~ ., , ., ., ., patients. we have been hearing a lot from them in — patients. we have been hearing a lot from them in the _ patients. we have been hearing a lot from them in the last _ patients. we have been hearing a lot from them in the last few _ patients. we have been hearing a lot from them in the last few days, - from them in the last few days, across our outlets and we of course know that the effect of the pandemic is not only on coronavirus patients put on people who want to use the nhs in other ways as well and in northern ireland, as we heard, some cancer patients are having their surgery put on hold which is really serious. , ., ., , , surgery put on hold which is really serious. , ., ., _ , serious. yes, and obviously my speciality _ serious. yes, and obviously my speciality is _ serious. yes, and obviously my speciality is emergency - serious. yes, and obviously my i speciality is emergency medicine serious. yes, and obviously my - speciality is emergency medicine and we feel for all patients who have had any aspect of their care delayed. from our perspective, we would urge patients who believe they are suffering from a significant illness not to be afraid to go into

hospital, particular patients with potential heart attacks or strokes or major trauma, but tommy payne, uncontrolled bleeding, that sort of things. —— stomach pain. we are very busy but we still want to see patients who are critically ill. what are the numbers are like in emergency department at the moment? are they lower than they would normally be? it are they lower than they would normally be?— are they lower than they would normally be? are they lower than they would normall be? , , , ., normally be? it depends where you are. in normally be? it depends where you are- in some _ normally be? it depends where you are. in some places— normally be? it depends where you are. in some places the _ normally be? it depends where you are. in some places the overall - are. in some places the overall numbers are lower but the number of sick patients are higher and in other places it is a slightly different story. all emergency departments are busy but how much of thatis departments are busy but how much of that is due to covid varies around the country from day to day. would ou sa the country from day to day. would you say that _ the country from day to day. would you say that you — the country from day to day. would you say that you are _ the country from day to day. would you say that you are seeing - the country from day to day. would you say that you are seeing signs . the country from day to day. would | you say that you are seeing signs of people being reluctant to come to emergency as happened in the last lockdown? we emergency as happened in the last lockdown? ~ ., , ,., emergency as happened in the last lockdown? ~ ., , , , lockdown? we are seeing some signs of that, yes. — lockdown? we are seeing some signs of that, yes, there _ lockdown? we are seeing some signs of that, yes, there is _ lockdown? we are seeing some signs of that, yes, there is some _ lockdown? we are seeing some signs of that, yes, there is some evidence l of that, yes, there is some evidence around patients with potential heart attacks for instant and it does worry us and

believe they are seriously ill. very clear message, thank you - believe they are seriously ill. very clear message, thank you so much. police have broken up a wedidng party attended by 400 guests in north london. officers found the windows at the yesodey hatorah girls senior school, a charedi school in stamford hill, had been covered when they arrived at 9:15pm last night. let's get the latest now from our home affairs correspondent, tom symonds. tell us what happened. police broke u . tell us what happened. police broke u- this tell us what happened. police broke up this event _ tell us what happened. police broke up this event pretty _ tell us what happened. police broke up this event pretty quickly - tell us what happened. police broke up this event pretty quickly after - up this event pretty quickly after arriving here yesterday evening. they said it was some sort of a wedding event in a hall that the school has at the back that it rents out. they handed out about five fixed penalty notices and also they have requested a fine of £10,000 for the organisers of the event. we were looking into this and we ask the school, the yesodey hatorah school,

what its side of the story was and they said... two points from that, they told me they do not actually think that anybody from the school was here last night, and that the organisation that lets the haul out has its own tea so has been running these lettings on its own so it's quite possible the school really knew nothing about what was going on. and a final point, a former

principal of the school who has been connected with this place for a long time died last year of covid—19. thank you. dr liam barker is a gp whose practice is next door to yesoday hatorah school, where the wedding was held, and said he was saddened to hear about the prohibited wedding taking place. we were disappointed, really. you know, this is a very kind of unique but close—knit community. they care for each other, they look out for each other and the vast majority, we know, are following rules. they've been safe, they've been careful. so for us, i think it's just disappointing that this small group of people have behaved in such a manner that may increase infections within our community in stamford hill. philip rosenberg is from the board of deputies of britishjews, which represents jewish organisations across britain,

and said that he and other community leaders condemned the actions taken by the haredi community in stamford hill last night. i've spoken to various leaders in stamford hill community and they are as shocked and appalled as i think we all are. we condemn this unreservedly. you know, across the country, 90,000 people have died and my team has the grim task of collecting the stats in thejewish community — 740 jewish people have died. so, our community understands this. the local leadership condemns it, we condemn it. we need to rally together. you know, it's hard, but we all need to do what we need do. stay at home, protect the nhs, and save lives. it's as simple as that, really. in15 in 15 minutes' time we will hear from the prime minister at the lotus coronavirus downing street briefing. downing street has played down the idea that everyone in england who tests positive for the coronavirus could receive a payment of £500 to encourage them to self—isolate. a universal £500 payment was among suggestions in a leaked department of health document.

0ur poltical correspondent leila nathoo is at westminster. interesting case this, leila, was this a bit of kite flying, a suggestion then knocked down by number 10? suggestion then knocked down by number10? i suggestion then knocked down by number 10?— suggestion then knocked down by number10? ~' .,, , number 10? i think the door was shut firml on number 10? i think the door was shut firmly on this — number 10? i think the door was shut firmly on this idea _ number 10? i think the door was shut firmly on this idea today. _ number 10? i think the door was shut firmly on this idea today. the - number 10? i think the door was shut firmly on this idea today. the idea - firmly on this idea today. the idea surfaced in a paper that seemed to be doing the rounds in the department of health is a policy for consideration. it was first reported by the guardian newspaper, the leak, this document suggesting there could be a universal payment of £500 to anybody who tested positive for coronavirus, to encourage them to abide by the isolation rules. at the moment, there are already support payments in place. a £500 payment for people on low incomes, those receiving certain benefits who may be able to access these payments through local authorities if they

are unable to work from home. the idea being it is an incentive so if people are worried about losing out on income because they need to self—isolate, ministers are pointing to the fact that people who need it can already access it. but i think there is no plan to extend it at the moment. downing street at the moment said this is not something under consideration. i think what is clear is that there is an awareness and government that there are problems with compliance. the idea that isolation has been a bit of a league link, at one point it was supposed to be in place of lockdown. if people who are testing positive for a contact of some testing positive and not isolating, there is not much of a hope of containing the spread. there is an awareness, george eustace said this morning there was a problem with compliance of

self—isolation rules under the tiered system. what the eventual policy will be to try and encourage people to isolate i think it remains to be seen. certainly, the idea of a universal payment extended to anyone regardless of their incomes or if they are eligible for sick pay or not, that is something that has been shot down today. but not, that is something that has been shot down today.— not, that is something that has been shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they — shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they will— shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they will have _ shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they will have to _ shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they will have to come - shot down today. but presumably this is an idea they will have to come up . is an idea they will have to come up with soon because it will be one of those measures that has to be put in place as we emerge from lockdown? i think this has been an issue throughout the pandemic because in both the early stages... people are in lockdown now but there are clearly a lot of people going into work, key workers, essential workers, who are still travelling into work and are not able to do theirjobs from home. so this does still apply to a lot of people now. but yes, that was the argument for ministers, that they are thinking of ways to basically encourage compliance with the rules, the isolation rules, as we emerge from lockdown. that at the moment is really unclear. ministers have been

very reluctant to put any date on when lockdown restrictions will be lifted. priti patel yesterday said it was far too early to even talk about it. it is a very cautious approach we are hearing from ministers on that at the moment. they do not want to be drawn into how long these restrictions might last. but yes, i think there is the hope that as the vaccine roll—out gathers pace, as more and more people are vaccinated, they don't want to have to face a situation of having another lockdown again, despite lots of people being vaccinated. therefore, clearly many policy ideas under consideration to trying to contain the spread of the virus, which still will be circulating in certain groups for some time once the toughest lockdown restrictions are lifted. but i don't think at the moment this universal payment of £500 is going to be one of them. ., , . ,, of them. ok, leila, we will be back to ou of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very — of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very shortly _ of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very shortly but _ of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very shortly but for- of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very shortly but for the - of them. ok, leila, we will be back to you very shortly but for the time | to you very shortly but for the time being, thank you very much. there are fears the current financial support is not working

because low paid workers cannot afford to self—isolate. so what measures are in place in other countries and does this increase compliance? i'm joined now by professor devi sridhar, professor in global public health at university of edinburgh. good to see your professor devi sridhar. what do other countries do to increase compliance and other more than we are?— to increase compliance and other more than we are? they are more successful- _ more than we are? they are more successful. if— more than we are? they are more successful. if we _ more than we are? they are more successful. if we look _ more than we are? they are more successful. if we look at _ more than we are? they are more successful. if we look at norway, | successful. if we look at norway, 60-70% of successful. if we look at norway, 60—70% of compliance, to new york city, over 90%, the east asian countries which have over 80% — 90%. they do a combination of carrots and sticks. carrots, paying salaries. finland gives 100%, norway 80%. also practical support, finland gives 100%, norway 80%. also practicalsupport, giving finland gives 100%, norway 80%. also practical support, giving people hotel rooms, daily care packages, food and other necessities, tech care. dog walking, if you can imagine! as well as sticks, which is if you break this, jail time, in the case of norway. 0ur massive

penalties, tens of thousands of euros in germany. 50 penalties, tens of thousands of euros in germany.— penalties, tens of thousands of euros in germany. so both more renerous euros in germany. so both more generous and — euros in germany. so both more generous and more _ euros in germany. so both more generous and more punitive? i euros in germany. so both more - generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to — generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to have _ generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to have people _ generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to have people be _ generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to have people be able - generous and more punitive? exactly. you want to have people be able to i you want to have people be able to isolate and not feel like they are being penalised for making that choice. if you ask people to choose between earning or staying home, they want to earn and so you have to replace at with giving people funding to do an active good well. they are already infected so going out of their home to work is not hurting them. they are are already having the virus, it is an active good well not to hurt others so it has to be compensated appropriately and i wonder if that is where we are falling down. we can test people, find them and trace their contacts but if they don't isolate, there is no point. because infectious people are still circulating in our society and we will be stuck in lockdown. and yet, they're sort of systems you are describing would be very expensive? are describing would be very exoensive?_ are describing would be very exensive? ~ ,, , , ., expensive? well, less expensive than bein: in expensive? well, less expensive than being in lockdown. _ expensive? well, less expensive than being in lockdown. i— expensive? well, less expensive than being in lockdown. ithink— expensive? well, less expensive than being in lockdown. i think lockdown . being in lockdown. i think lockdown is the most crude and destructive

mechanism we could be using to suppress this virus. we are locking everyone at home except for essential workers. still with that, we are seeing substantial infection rates. if we look at the countries whose economies are growing, taiwan, even states in australia, new zealand is doing decently. in europe, norway and finland, they have invested in public health infrastructure because it is cheaper to prevent a lockdown than to be caught and another one. nonetheless, infection rates — caught and another one. nonetheless, infection rates in _ caught and another one. nonetheless, infection rates in the _ caught and another one. nonetheless, infection rates in the uk, _ caught and another one. nonetheless, infection rates in the uk, although - infection rates in the uk, although they are plateauing and possibly shrinking a little, are still very high, aren't they? it would be very expensive. i high, aren't they? it would be very exensive. ~ high, aren't they? it would be very exoensive-— high, aren't they? it would be very exensive. ~' ., ., expensive. i think right now, we had anuela expensive. i think right now, we had angela merkel— expensive. i think right now, we had angela merkel talking _ expensive. i think right now, we had angela merkel talking about - expensive. i think right now, we had angela merkel talking about this - expensive. i think right now, we had angela merkel talking about this in i angela merkel talking about this in relation to germany, which also has high infection rates, that you have different phases of how to manage the pandemic. the first stages getting the numbers down through actuallyjust getting the numbers down through actually just trying to getting the numbers down through actuallyjust trying to stop mixing overall. but once they come down and we will see them come down. they are sticking out numbers we would like to see lower, then you can get your testing and tracing going when the

numbers are low enough. then hopefully drive it really low like we were last summer, get your economy open, get back to some normal life and then the question is how do you protect it so you don't have another surge of infections and the third wave. that is where you need your test, trace and isolate, border measures, travel restrictions and as well as the vaccine roll—out, that will help in the next 6—8 months. that will help in the next 6-8 months. ~ ., ., , months. we have to remember some communities — months. we have to remember some communities find _ months. we have to remember some communities find it _ months. we have to remember some communities find it harder _ months. we have to remember some communities find it harder to - months. we have to remember some communities find it harder to comply| communities find it harder to comply with the restrictions it and the order to self—isolate than others. yes, a lot of emphasis on parties or i heard the piece about weddings. but these are outliers. the majority of people are actually can play complying with the roles because they want to protect the nhs and to look out for their communities. it is remarkable that after a year, people are still willing to go through such harsh restrictions in terms of our social and economic lives. at the same time, people need to earn and the number one reason

people give for not isolating as they are not able to earn. we have seen this even in scotland. there was a factory outbreak and how was it brought under control? factory workers are given their full wages to stay home and isolate. when that package was offered, there was almost 100% compliance. that says to me that people will do the right thing but they have to be compensated appropriately. trier? thing but they have to be compensated appropriately. very good to net our compensated appropriately. very good to get your thoughts. _ compensated appropriately. very good to get your thoughts. thank _ compensated appropriately. very good to get your thoughts. thank you - compensated appropriately. very good to get your thoughts. thank you so - to get your thoughts. thank you so much. professor devi sridharfrom the university of edinburgh, thank you. a collapse in demand for new clothes because of lockdown has seen the uk record its worst retail sales figures on record. fashion stores recorded a 25% fall in sales last year, and overall the number of transactions was down by nearly 2% compared with the year before. our business presenter ben thompson has more. oxford street in the heart of london's west end is normally europe's busiest shopping street, but things are quiet here whilst nonessential retail remains closed. and it's a familiar picture up and down the country. in fact, 2020 has been the worst year on record for retail,

and that's because in the final two weeks of december, the numbers of shoppers on our high streets was down by 50%. as more of us got used to click and collect and online shopping, the proportion of all sales that were done online hit 30%. the british retail consortium warned that 2020 was the worst year on record for retail, with nearly 180,000 jobs lost. but they've also warned that things could get worse before they get better. debenhams, which is in administration, its flagship store just around the corner from here is one of five that will not reopen even when restrictions are eased. and arcadia group, which owns brands such as topshop, dorothy perkins and burton's, it's struggling to find a buyer. we heard just late last night that next, that was one of the big names in line to buy topshop, the jewel in the crown of the arcadia empire, has pulled out of the race.

it says it's too expensive. and so the warning that there may be many more thousands ofjobs lost on our high streets as much more shopping moves online, there is a real concern that 2021 could get much worse. ben thompson reporting there. the chancellor, rishi sunak, has defended the government's economic response to the pandemic, after borrowing hit a record high for december. more than £34 billion was needed by the government last month to help pay for covid support. borrowing for this financial year has now reached more than £270 billion. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. if you look at the amount that's been borrowed this financial year, in other words, from april to december, as you mentioned, it's up to £270 billion. that's more than four times as much as it was last year, and if you look at the amount of debt taken on. so, just to explain, the government, if it spends more than its income, like the rest of us, it has to borrow the difference.

then, of course, each year if it has to borrow the difference, that piles up to debts. so, the debt has increased to £2.1 trillion and that's just a tiny little bit less than the total value of everything we produce in a year, the whole size of the economy. and, of course, we've got three months of the financial year to go. it's predicted that the deficit will then get up to about 400 billion and, of course, it will be worth a lot more than the value of the economy. now, that's the first time that's happened since the 1960s or 1950s, but it's interesting. when people talk about that not being sustainable, we've been told for the last ten, 12 years that high deficits, high overspends and high debts are unsustainable. in fact, what really counts when you're looking at whether it's sustainable or not is how much it costs in interest. at the moment, the interest rates are negative. in other words, investors are paying the government less with the government. that means that, actually, this is affordable and doesn't look

like reducing any time soon. their bbc�*s andy verity there. in a few moments we are crossing over to downing street for the latest coronavirus briefing from the prime minister. let's return to our poltical correspondent leila nathoo. what are you expecting the theme to be at the briefing today? i’m what are you expecting the theme to be at the briefing today?— be at the briefing today? i'm sure the prime minister _ be at the briefing today? i'm sure the prime minister will _ be at the briefing today? i'm sure the prime minister will be - be at the briefing today? i'm sure the prime minister will be keen i be at the briefing today? i'm sure | the prime minister will be keen to talk about the successes of the vaccination scheme, giving an update of how it is rolling out across the country. there had been a number of questions which i am sure will be addressed about regional variation in the rates of people getting the vaccine. whether supplies are being consistent across the country and some data that has come out of israel, potentially showing some questions about the gap between the two doses of the pfizer vaccine, questions around that. i'm sure the

chief medical officer and chief scientific 0fficer chief medical officer and chief scientific officer will have something to say about that. it is clearly something the government wants to talk about an champion is a success story, the roll—out of the vaccine across country and the capacity, the number of the jabs being given that day, to meet the target of the four priority groups by mid—february. we have been talking a lot today about self—isolation and whether more incentives are going to be needed to give people the chance to self—isolate, in terms of payments and whether people are failing to self—isolate and therefore still spreading the disease if they test positive because they don't want to

miss out on income. we have been talking about the idea of a potential £500 payment going across the board. that has been shot down by the government today but it is something that has been considered within the department of health but not something downing street is saying they have any plans to do. but clearly i think there is some concern, as we have been discussing, about compliance with isolation roles and compliance with the rules more generally. i am sure we will get plenty of questions about how long the lockdown restrictions in england will last. it seems to be something ministers are extremely cautious about addressing. i think it will be interesting to see the kind of language the prime minister uses today, whether he is saying he doesn't want to put a timetable at, whether it is too soon to entertain out or whether he gives any more specifics about the sort of timetable for the loosening of restrictions once the vaccine roll—out continues. do restrictions once the vaccine roll-out continues.— restrictions once the vaccine roll-out continues. do you get the impression _ roll-out continues. do you get the impression that _ roll-out continues. do you get the impression that government - roll-out continues. do you get the impression that government is - impression that government is increasingly reluctant to have stop start lockdowns and if anything, they will be much more cautious about lifting restrictions? clearly this is taking place in a different context because the backdrop to this lockdown is that although it is now one year on... to stop you, here comes the prime minister.

good afternoon, thank you for joining us. since the beginning of this pandemic we have tried to update you as as soon as possible about changes in the scientific data or the analysis and so i must tell you this afternoon that we have been informed today that in addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant, that was first identified in london and the south—east, may be associated with a higher degree of mortality, and i'm going to ask patrick in a minute to say a bit more about that. because it is largely the impact of this new variant that means the nhs is under such intense pressure, with another 40,261 positive cases since yesterday. we have 38,562 covid

patients now in hospital, 78% higher than the first peak in april. and tragically, there have been a further 1401 deaths. so it is more important than ever that we all remain vigilant in following the rules and that we stay at home, protect the nhs and thereby save lives. but i also want to answer a key question i know it will be uppermost in your mind is. all current evidence continues to show that both the vaccines we are currently using remain effective both against the old variant and this new variant. you will also want to know that our realisation programme continues at an unprecedented rate. 5.4 million people across the uk have received their first dose of the vaccine and

over the last 204! was we can report a record 400,000 vaccinations. in england, one in ten of all adults have received their first dose including 71% of over 80s and two thirds of elderly care home residents. having secured orders for hundreds of millions of doses, the uk government has supplied vaccines to the devolved administration according to population size and first doses have been administrated to 151,000 people in northern ireland, 358,000 in scotland and 212,000 in wales and i am glad that the government of the uk is able to assist the devolved administrations in deploying the vaccine and i know everyone across the country is grateful for the logistical skill of the british army. there is much more to do and the target remains very

stretched indeed but we remain on track to reach our goal of offering a first dose to everyone in the top four priority groups by the middle of february. and i want to thank all the doctors and nurses, especially at the gp led sites who are vaccinating at a phenomenal rate as well as those in our armed forces as i said, local authorities, well as those in our armed forces as isaid, localauthorities, our pharmacies and volunteers who are making this extraordinary national effort possible. and i want to thank all of you who have come forward to get your jabs all of you who have come forward to get yourjabs because by doing that, you are protecting yourselves, your communities and of course our nhs. and i say to everyone, when that letter arrives, and i say to everyone, when that letterarrives, please and i say to everyone, when that letter arrives, please don't hesitate to book that appointment and get this life—saving protection. because this is the best and fastest way for us all to defeat this virus

and get our lives back to normal. i will ask chris to do the slides. thank you, prime minister. the first slide is the office for national statistics data showing the estimated number of people testing positive for covid—19 in england. that has been on a steady upward slope since the early part of december but i'm glad to say that in the most recent data, there has been a turning of the corner on that and the number of people with infections has gone down, but it has gone down from an exceptionally high level and the most recent estimate is we are still at a stage in england where one in 55 people have the virus. so there is a definite sign of improvement but from a very high level and remaining at a high level thanks to the extraordinary work everybody has done together to make sure people stay at home when they do not need to go outside. next

slide, please. this looks at the number of people in hospital with covid in the uk and it is increasing all the time and it has been over the last several weeks and it is now at extraordinarily high level, the prime minister has said. but there is a sign of this beginning to flatten out. in some parts of england, particularly the south—east, the east of england and london, there are signs of some reduction in the numbers going into hospital but at an incredibly high rate still. in other areas, there is still some increase, in parts of the midlands and the north of england, for example but overall there is now a flattening out and we hope to see following the reductions from a high level in the number of cases, the beginnings of a reduction of cases in hospital, but this will take some weeks to work through the system

until we start to see significant falls in the number in hospital. nhs staff are working extraordinarily hard across the whole country because of the very large numbers of people in hospital with covid. next slide, please. sadly, the number of people who have had a positive test for covid and then died shortly afterwards is continuing to climb. because this is a delayed effect, so people get infection and end up going to hospital, get more severely ill and sadly some of them die, most obviously recover, the number of people dying has been steadily increasing and the most recent seven day rolling average is over 1000 deaths per day. this is a very high rate and again, it will take longer to come down and probably will go up over at the next week because of the fact there is a delay between people

going into hospital and some people sadly dying. i will hand over to sir patrick for some comments about the new variant-— new variant. thank you, there are three major— new variant. thank you, there are three major variants _ new variant. thank you, there are three major variants of _ new variant. thank you, there are three major variants of potential i three major variants of potential concern, — three major variants of potential concern, the one first identified in the uk, _ concern, the one first identified in the uk, the — concern, the one first identified in the uk, the one identified in south africa _ the uk, the one identified in south africa and — the uk, the one identified in south africa and one identified in brazil, three _ africa and one identified in brazil, three countries, all of which sequence _ three countries, all of which sequence a lot and pick these things up sequence a lot and pick these things up early _ sequence a lot and pick these things up early i_ sequence a lot and pick these things up early. i want to talk about the uk one _ up early. i want to talk about the uk one because it is a common variant now— uk one because it is a common variant now comprising a significant number of the cases. the first thing to say— number of the cases. the first thing to say is— number of the cases. the first thing to say is that we have confidence this is— to say is that we have confidence this is spreading more easily than the old _ this is spreading more easily than the old variant, and we think it transmits _ the old variant, and we think it transmits between 30% and 70% more easily— transmits between 30% and 70% more easily than _ transmits between 30% and 70% more easily than the old variant. we do not yet _ easily than the old variant. we do not yet understand why that is the case _ not yet understand why that is the case it— not yet understand why that is the case. it does not have a difference in terms _ case. it does not have a difference in terms of— case. it does not have a difference in terms of age distribution. there is no _ in terms of age distribution. there is no preferential age, it can

affect anybody at any age and similar to the original virus. but i want _ similar to the original virus. but i want to— similar to the original virus. but i want to say— similar to the original virus. but i want to say a word about severity and mortality. when we look at data from hospitals, patients who are in hospital— from hospitals, patients who are in hospital with the virus, the outcomes for those with the original virus or— outcomes for those with the original virus or the — outcomes for those with the original virus or the new variant look at the same: _ virus or the new variant look at the same. so _ virus or the new variant look at the same, so there is no real evidence of an— same, so there is no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those — of an increase in mortality for those in — of an increase in mortality for those in hospital. however, when data are — those in hospital. however, when data are looked at in terms of those who have _ data are looked at in terms of those who have been tested positive, so anyone _ anyone who has tested positive, there is evidence that there is an increased — there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new _ increased risk for those who have the new variant compared to the old virus _ the new variant compared to the old virus that _ the new variant compared to the old virus. that evidence is not yet strong, — virus. that evidence is not yet strong, it— virus. that evidence is not yet strong, it is— virus. that evidence is not yet strong, it is a series of different bits of— strong, it is a series of different bits of information that come together to support that and i want together to support that and i want to put— together to support that and i want to put it _ together to support that and i want to put it into context as to what it might _ to put it into context as to what it might mean but stressing that these data are currently uncertain and we

do not have a very good estimate of the precise — do not have a very good estimate of the precise nature or indeed whether it is overall _ the precise nature or indeed whether it is overall increased, but it looks — it is overall increased, but it looks like _ it is overall increased, but it looks like it is my want to give some context. if you took somebody in their— some context. if you took somebody in their 60s, — some context. if you took somebody in their 60s, a man in their 60s, the average— in their 60s, a man in their 60s, the average risk is that for a thousand _ the average risk is that for a thousand people who got infected, roughly— thousand people who got infected, roughly ten would be expected to unfortunately die with the virus. with— unfortunately die with the virus. with the — unfortunately die with the virus. with the new variant, for thousand people _ with the new variant, for thousand people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people _ people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die, so that is— people might be expected to die, so that is the _ people might be expected to die, so that is the sort of change for that sort of— that is the sort of change for that sort of age — that is the sort of change for that sort of age group, that is the sort of change for that sort ofage group, an that is the sort of change for that sort of age group, an increase from ten to— sort of age group, an increase from ten to 13 _ sort of age group, an increase from ten to 13 or— sort of age group, an increase from ten to 13 or 14 out of 1000 and you will see _ ten to 13 or 14 out of 1000 and you will see that across the different a-e will see that across the different age groups as welcome a similar sort of relative _ age groups as welcome a similar sort of relative increase in the risk. that— of relative increase in the risk. that is— of relative increase in the risk. that is what we are looking at but i want _ that is what we are looking at but i want to _ that is what we are looking at but i want to stress there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need _ uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle _ we need more work to get a precise handle on _ we need more work to get a precise handle on it—

we need more work to get a precise handle on it but it obviously is a concern — handle on it but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality— concern that this has an increase in mortality as — concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility as it appears of today — transmissibility as it appears of today. let me also say a word about vaccines _ today. let me also say a word about vaccines the — today. let me also say a word about vaccines. the first is that there is increasing — vaccines. the first is that there is increasing evidence from laboratory studies _ increasing evidence from laboratory studies that the variant in the uk will be susceptible to the vaccines and so i think that is increasing from _ and so i think that is increasing from a — and so i think that is increasing from a number of different sources, including _ from a number of different sources, including looking at blood taken from _ including looking at blood taken from people who have been vaccinated, showing it can neutralise the new virus and indeed, 'ust neutralise the new virus and indeed, just two— neutralise the new virus and indeed, just two days ago, one of the manufacturers of one of the vaccines, _ manufacturers of one of the vaccines, the pfizer biontech team, did studies— vaccines, the pfizer biontech team, did studies showing that there was very good — did studies showing that there was very good neutralisation of the variant— very good neutralisation of the variant virus by the blood taken from _ variant virus by the blood taken from patients, people who had been vaccinated — from patients, people who had been vaccinated. i think there is increasing confidence, coupled with

what i _ increasing confidence, coupled with what i think is a very important clinical— what i think is a very important clinical observation which is that individuals who have been infected previously — individuals who have been infected previously and have generated antibodies appear to be equally protected against original virus and new variant. there is good clinical data to _ new variant. there is good clinical data to support the idea that the vaccines— data to support the idea that the vaccines should be as effective against — vaccines should be as effective against this virus as against the old one — against this virus as against the old one or— against this virus as against the old one or there or thereabouts. so ithink— old one or there or thereabouts. so i think good — old one or there or thereabouts. so i think good news on the vaccine front— i think good news on the vaccine front and — i think good news on the vaccine front and finally, a word about the south _ front and finally, a word about the south african and brazilian variants _ south african and brazilian variants. we know less about how much _ variants. we know less about how much more — variants. we know less about how much more transmissible they are. we are more _ much more transmissible they are. we are more concerned that they have certain— are more concerned that they have certain features which mean they might— certain features which mean they might be — certain features which mean they might be less susceptible to vaccines. we will see a lot of information coming out from different— information coming out from different laboratories, it's very difficult — different laboratories, it's very difficult to compare between laboratories on these data and we need _ laboratories on these data and we need to— laboratories on these data and we need to get more clinical information to understand how much of an effect— information to understand how much of an effect if any there is on the

vaccine — of an effect if any there is on the vaccine. but they are definitely of more _ vaccine. but they are definitely of more concern than the one in the uk at the _ more concern than the one in the uk at the moment and we need to keep looking _ at the moment and we need to keep looking at— at the moment and we need to keep looking at it and studying this very carefully _ looking at it and studying this very carefully which is what is going on in laboratories across the world at the moment. in laboratories across the world at the moment-— in laboratories across the world at the moment. thank you very much, patrick and — the moment. thank you very much, patrick and chris. _ the moment. thank you very much, patrick and chris. we _ the moment. thank you very much, patrick and chris. we can _ the moment. thank you very much, patrick and chris. we can go - the moment. thank you very much, patrick and chris. we can go to - patrick and chris. we can go to tracey point we were initially told we would need two vaccinations against covid—19. we would need two vaccinations against covid-19.— we would need two vaccinations auainst covid-19. ., against covid-19. three weeks apart. the first giving _ against covid-19. three weeks apart. the first giving approximately - against covid-19. three weeks apart. the first giving approximately 5096 i the first giving approximately 50% protection, — the first giving approximately 50% protection, then— the first giving approximately 50% protection, then rising _ the first giving approximately 50% protection, then rising to- the first giving approximately 50% protection, then rising to 95%- the first giving approximately 50%| protection, then rising to 95% after the second — protection, then rising to 95% after the second dose. _ protection, then rising to 95% after the second dose. however, - protection, then rising to 95% after the second dose. however, the - protection, then rising to 95% after| the second dose. however, the two vaccinations— the second dose. however, the two vaccinations are _ the second dose. however, the two vaccinations are now— the second dose. however, the two vaccinations are now up _ the second dose. however, the two vaccinations are now up to - the second dose. however, the two vaccinations are now up to 12 - the second dose. however, the twoj vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart _ vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart will— vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart will this— vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart. will this reduce _ vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart. will this reduce the - vaccinations are now up to 12 weeks apart. will this reduce the levels. apart. will this reduce the levels. of protection from either dose and if so, _ of protection from either dose and if so, by— of protection from either dose and if so, by what _ of protection from either dose and if so, by what percentage? - of protection from either dose and if so, by what percentage?- if so, by what percentage? thank ou, if so, by what percentage? thank you. tracy. _ if so, by what percentage? thank you. tracy. a _ if so, by what percentage? thank you. tracy. a very _ if so, by what percentage? thank you, tracy, a very important - you, tracy, a very important question and i knowjonathan van—tam was asked that a few weeks ago but chris, why don't you take that? thank you. the thing with the two vaccines, the first thing is, we are

absolutely clear that everybody needs two vaccinations. the first gives the great majority as far as we can see of the initial protection but the second vaccine increases that and probably makes it longer lasting as well so we are still very much committed to two vaccinations. the reason for extending the course of the vaccination is primarily to double the number of people who can get vaccinated. it is a public health decision and the reason that we think it is a reasonable thing to do is that because our major limitation is the number of vaccinations we actually have to give, not our ability to vaccinate but the number of vaccinations we have to give, if you vaccinate everybody twice in quick succession, half the number of people will be able to be vaccinated over the next short to medium term, the next several weeks to three month period.

by several weeks to three month period. by extending the time, what we are allowing is many more people to be vaccinated much more quickly and then they will get their second vaccine but they will do so with many more people vaccinated. that is the broad reason and by a process of relatively simple maths, you can think that if a vaccine is more than 50% effective, if you double the number of people vaccinated over this very risky period when there is a lot of virus circulating and likely to be that, you will overall get some substantial benefit. the question you asked was will the person who has been vaccinated once have the same protection as someone vaccinated twice and the answer is slightly different probably between the two vaccines we currently have deployed in the uk, the pfizer biontech vaccine and the oxford astrazeneca vaccine. but in both cases, we think the great majority of the protection is given by the

first vaccine and the second one is going to top that up and extend it over time but we actually have confidence that they will be a lot of protection after the first vaccination. of course we will keep that under review as new data comes in but there are several lines of data that make us think it is likely that once you get protection initially, it lasts for a reasonable period of time including people who have had natural infection where they seem to have protection for many months certainly up to five months in the majority of cases, and it also looks as if that is the case with several different vaccine types which have been tried with one vaccine and then a later dose. they all have the same active component essentially, what is called the spike protein, and they seem to work so that if the reason why we think it is likely that this is a reasonable thing to do and i get quite a lot of e—mails giving me advice from members of the public

and members of the medical profession and in general, people who have been vaccinated tend to say, why can't i have my vaccine more quickly? and people who have not been vaccinated ask why they can't have their first vaccine and those are both reasonable positions but the reality is that by doing this longer interval, many more people come essentially in the medium term, twice as many people, will get a first vaccine which provides the majority of the protection and that's the reason we're doing it. protection and that's the reason we're doing it— protection and that's the reason we're doing it. thank you, chris. let's no we're doing it. thank you, chris. let's go to _ we're doing it. thank you, chris. let's go to sally _ we're doing it. thank you, chris. let's go to sally in _ we're doing it. thank you, chris. let's go to sally in oxfordshire. | let's go to sally in oxfordshire. sally asks... again, ithink again, i think i better defer to chris and patrick on that. chris? several things to say. the first one is, even with a very effective vaccine, the two vaccines we have are very effective. there is a period of time straight after the

vaccine where there is no effect. you don't expect to see with these vaccines and you don't see in the clinical trials of any of the vaccines, and effect for two or three weeks after the first vaccine. the first thing is you have virtually no protection initially and then it will steadily increase from two to three weeks onwards and probably continues to increase over time. but that protection will not be complete and even with two vaccines it won't be complete, it is probably a bit less with the first vaccine. at the moment, a very large proportion of people you might come into contact with could well have the virus. you saw the data right at the virus. you saw the data right at the beginning. what they showed is that at this point in time, across england as a whole are on average, one in 55 people have got the virus and in places like london, where there is a lot, it drops to maybe one in 35. the risk is if you have the vaccine, you still have some residual risk and the person you are meeting is probably not vaccinated

and there is a high chance they have the virus. so we need to do three things: vaccinate people who are at risk, as we are, and give them their second dose. we need to vaccinate the rest of the population so that the rest of the population so that the people they coming into contact with his vaccinated and we need to get the rates of the virus right down. that is what everybody is doing by staying at home, only going out for essential things like exercise, work and essential shopping. that is what's happening, getting the rates right down so if you do go out and you have had the vaccine and ideally the second vaccine, you will meet people who have been vaccinated because there are more vaccine in the rates are much lower, so your chance of meeting someone with the vaccine improves. 0vertime meeting someone with the vaccine improves. over time the answer will be asked but at this point in time, the answer is no, we still think you should be very cautious and like everybody else, you should be staying at home are not going at home except when you need to for exercise, essential things work. patrick? ., ., patrick? one thing to add. the vaccines are _

patrick? one thing to add. the vaccines are very _ patrick? one thing to add. the vaccines are very effective - patrick? one thing to add. the vaccines are very effective at l vaccines are very effective at protecting severe disease and symptomatic disease. we still don't know— symptomatic disease. we still don't know how— symptomatic disease. we still don't know how effective they are from stopping — know how effective they are from stopping you catching the virus or passing _ stopping you catching the virus or passing the virus on. it is very important _ passing the virus on. it is very important for people who are vaccinated, even after two or three weeks. _ vaccinated, even after two or three weeks. not — vaccinated, even after two or three weeks, not to assume they can't catch— weeks, not to assume they can't catch it — weeks, not to assume they can't catch it and _ weeks, not to assume they can't catch it and pass it onto someone else _ catch it and pass it onto someone else that — catch it and pass it onto someone else that is— catch it and pass it onto someone else. that is why it is important that we will stick to the rules at moment— that we will stick to the rules at moment until the rates come right down _ moment until the rates come right down and — moment until the rates come right down and it is possible to release some _ down and it is possible to release some of— down and it is possible to release some of the measures.— down and it is possible to release some of the measures. thank you very much, some of the measures. thank you very much. sally- — some of the measures. thank you very much. sally- hugh _ some of the measures. thank you very much, sally. hugh pym _ some of the measures. thank you very much, sally. hugh pym from _ some of the measures. thank you very much, sally. hugh pym from the - some of the measures. thank you very much, sally. hugh pym from the bbc? thank you, prime minister. in the light— thank you, prime minister. in the light of— thank you, prime minister. in the light of the — thank you, prime minister. in the light of the new _ thank you, prime minister. in the light of the new information - thank you, prime minister. in the light of the new information do i thank you, prime minister. in the. light of the new information do you expect— light of the new information do you expect the — light of the new information do you expect the daily— light of the new information do you expect the daily reported _ light of the new information do you expect the daily reported death - light of the new information do you j expect the daily reported death toll to carry _ expect the daily reported death toll to carry on — expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising _ expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for— expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for longer- expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for longer than i to carry on rising for longer than you first — to carry on rising for longer than you first thought _ to carry on rising for longer than you first thought and _ to carry on rising for longer than you first thought and then - to carry on rising for longer than you first thought and then fall. to carry on rising for longer than . you first thought and then fall more slowly? _ you first thought and then fall more slowly? 0n— you first thought and then fall more slowly? on a — you first thought and then fall more slowly? on a different _ you first thought and then fall more slowly? on a different subject, - you first thought and then fall morel slowly? on a different subject, what do you _ slowly? on a different subject, what do you make — slowly? on a different subject, what do you make of— do you make of reports from israel that the _ do you make of reports from israel that the first — do you make of reports from israel that the first dose _ do you make of reports from israel that the first dose of _ do you make of reports from israel that the first dose of the _ do you make of reports from israel that the first dose of the pfizer- that the first dose of the pfizer vaccine — that the first dose of the pfizer vaccine may— that the first dose of the pfizer vaccine may not _ that the first dose of the pfizer vaccine may not be _ that the first dose of the pfizer vaccine may not be as - that the first dose of the pfizer| vaccine may not be as effective that the first dose of the pfizer. vaccine may not be as effective as first thought? _ first thought? well. - first thought? well, i- first thought? well, i will. first thought? i well, i will have first thought? - well, i will have a stab first thought? _ well, i will have a stab at the first, in the sense that we think

looking at the numbers of infections that we've sadly seen as a result of the new variant, that big surge that the new variant, that big surge that the country saw in the christmas period and afterwards— the country saw in the christmas period and afterwards which is sadly still auoin period and afterwards which is sadly still going on _ period and afterwards which is sadly still going on as _ period and afterwards which is sadly still going on as a _ period and afterwards which is sadly still going on as a result _ period and afterwards which is sadly still going on as a result of- period and afterwards which is sadly still going on as a result of the - still going on as a result of the new variant, the death numbers will continue to be high. i wouldn't... at least for a little while to come. i wouldn't want to go further than that but i think probably you should hear from chris and that but i think probably you should hearfrom chris and patrick that but i think probably you should hear from chris and patrick on that. certainly on the point about the efficacy of the first pfizer dose, i think that message needs to be heard loud and clear from think that message needs to be heard loud and clearfrom chris think that message needs to be heard loud and clear from chris and patrick. i loud and clear from chris and patrick. . . . patrick. i will answer the first, patrick. i will answer the first, patrick might _ patrick. i will answer the first, patrick might want _ patrick. i will answer the first, patrick might want to - patrick. i will answer the first, patrick might want to come i patrick. i will answer the first, i patrick might want to come onto the data from israel. the first one, that the shape of when mortality occurs, your point about when it will occur, that is driven by the rate of increase and thanks to what everyone is doing, the rate of

decrease of the virus over time. that will be slow from a very high base and his delayed but the actual difference, if there is a difference, if there is a difference, and sir patrick and i are cautious about saying definitely there is a difference, the slight increase sir patrick was talking about won't change the shape of that. it could slightly increase the proportion of people who die who are infected but the curve is driven by are the rates going up or going down as they are from a very high base. patrick? ., ., , ., , ., patrick? the death rate is awful and i'm afraid it will— patrick? the death rate is awful and i'm afraid it will stay _ patrick? the death rate is awful and i'm afraid it will stay high _ patrick? the death rate is awful and i'm afraid it will stay high for- patrick? the death rate is awful and i'm afraid it will stay high for a i i'm afraid it will stay high for a little _ i'm afraid it will stay high for a little while before it starts coming down _ little while before it starts coming down. that was always what was predicted — down. that was always what was predicted from the shape of this, as chris said _ predicted from the shape of this, as chris said i— predicted from the shape of this, as chris said. i think the information about— chris said. i think the information about the — chris said. i think the information about the new variant doesn't change that. about the new variant doesn't change that in— about the new variant doesn't change that. in terms of the israeli data, ithink— that. in terms of the israeli data, i think that — that. in terms of the israeli data, i think that was information from one of— i think that was information from one of the — i think that was information from one of the organisations that organises health in israel and i think— organises health in israel and i think there are four. it was some preliminary— think there are four. it was some preliminary data that came out on the numbers. ithink

preliminary data that came out on the numbers. i think israeli preliminary data that came out on the numbers. ithink israeli health ministry— the numbers. ithink israeli health ministry has said they are not entirely— ministry has said they are not entirely sure that those are the final— entirely sure that those are the final data — entirely sure that those are the final data and they are expecting the effect is to increase. so i think— the effect is to increase. so i think it — the effect is to increase. so i think it is _ the effect is to increase. so i think it is very preliminary. these are preliminary information from a subset— are preliminary information from a subset of— are preliminary information from a subset of people, they haven't followed — subset of people, they haven't followed people for long enough. we had a discussion with the israeli advisers yesterday and they are expecting to get more information over the _ expecting to get more information over the next few weeks. i think we will have _ over the next few weeks. i think we will have to — over the next few weeks. i think we will have to monitor this very carefully _ will have to monitor this very carefully. we are going to have to keep _ carefully. we are going to have to keep looking at data and understanding the performance of vaccines _ understanding the performance of vaccines in— understanding the performance of vaccines in the real world but the trial dates — vaccines in the real world but the trial dates are very persuasive that these _ trial dates are very persuasive that these are — trial dates are very persuasive that these are highly effective vaccines and we _ these are highly effective vaccines and we would expect that to translate into what happens in real practice _ translate into what happens in real ractice. . ~' , ., translate into what happens in real ractice. ., ,, , ., , translate into what happens in real ractice. ., ,, , . �*, practice. thank you very much. let's to practice. thank you very much. let's no to dan practice. thank you very much. let's go to dan hewitt _ practice. thank you very much. let's go to dan hewitt at _ practice. thank you very much. let's go to dan hewitt at itv. _ practice. thank you very much. let's go to dan hewitt at itv. thank i practice. thank you very much. let's go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, | go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, prime minister. _ go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, prime minister. given _ go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, prime minister. given what - go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, prime minister. given what we i go to dan hewitt at itv. thank you, | prime minister. given what we know about— prime minister. given what we know about this _ prime minister. given what we know about this new— prime minister. given what we know about this new variant, _ prime minister. given what we know about this new variant, how- prime minister. given what we know about this new variant, how likely i about this new variant, how likely is it that — about this new variant, how likely is it that the — about this new variant, how likely is it that the current _ about this new variant, how likely is it that the current lockdown i is it that the current lockdown restrictions _ is it that the current lockdown restrictions are _ is it that the current lockdown restrictions are going - is it that the current lockdown restrictions are going to - is it that the current lockdown restrictions are going to last i restrictions are going to last longer— restrictions are going to last longer now. _ restrictions are going to last longer now, perhaps - restrictions are going to last| longer now, perhaps beyond restrictions are going to last - longer now, perhaps beyond spring and into— longer now, perhaps beyond spring and into summer? _ longer now, perhaps beyond spring and into summer? are _ longer now, perhaps beyond spring and into summer? are you - longer now, perhaps beyond spring i and into summer? are you considering tougher— and into summer? are you considering tougher restrictions _ and into summer? are you considering tougher restrictions on _ and into summer? are you considering tougher restrictions on the _

and into summer? are you considering tougher restrictions on the short - tougher restrictions on the short term? _ tougher restrictions on the short term? and — tougher restrictions on the short term? and a _ tougher restrictions on the short term? and a question— tougher restrictions on the short term? and a question for- tougher restrictions on the short term? and a question for surf. term? and a question for surf patrick— term? and a question for surf patrick vallance, _ term? and a question for surf patrick vallance, how- term? and a question for surf patrick vallance, how much i term? and a question for surf| patrick vallance, how much of term? and a question for surf- patrick vallance, how much of the south _ patrick vallance, how much of the south african _ patrick vallance, how much of the south african variant _ patrick vallance, how much of the south african variant do _ patrick vallance, how much of the south african variant do you - patrick vallance, how much of the south african variant do you think| south african variant do you think is here _ south african variant do you think is here and — south african variant do you think is here and how— south african variant do you think is here and how likely— south african variant do you think is here and how likely is- south african variant do you think is here and how likely is it - south african variant do you think is here and how likely is it a - is here and how likely is it a similar— is here and how likely is it a similar strain— is here and how likely is it a similar strain is— is here and how likely is it a similar strain is developingl is here and how likely is it a - similar strain is developing here? we think— similar strain is developing here? we think this _ similar strain is developing here? we think this is _ similar strain is developing here? we think this is the _ similar strain is developing here? we think this is the right - similar strain is developing here? we think this is the right packagej we think this is the right package of measures to deal with the new variant. we don't want to change them. what we want to see is people enforcing them and obeying them. that is the crucial thing. it is more important than anything, any new piece of law that government produces, is public willingness to comply. i think we are seeing some signs of flattening in the data. we are seeing some areas, particularly in london and the south—east, where numbers of infections are coming down. that is very encouraging that we are seeing perhaps the stabilising of hospital admissions that the rates are still very high. so when you think about unlocking,

we really can't begin to consider unlocking it until we are confident that the vaccination programme is working. untilwe that the vaccination programme is working. until we are confident that we don't have new variants or changes in the medical... in our understanding of the virus that might affect our calculation is. but i think the most important thing is we have to be in a position where the rate of infection is not still so high and it's very high right now, so as to... for unlocking to lead to another big rebound. i think that would be the wrong thing and the wrong way to approach it. so we have to get those rates of infection down as well. it is notjust a question of rolling out the vaccine, fast as that is. you can't unlock whilst rates of infection are so very high. that is obviously something we are thinking about and

thatis something we are thinking about and that is why obeying this current lockdown and making it work and, as i say, the signs are it's beginning to work, that's why it is so absolutely crucial to this effort. i think in terms of the numbers here, the latest _ think in terms of the numbers here, the latest data from phe suggests 44 people _ the latest data from phe suggests 44 people have been detected with the south _ people have been detected with the south african variant, it may be a bit higher— south african variant, it may be a bit higher because of some uncertain results _ bit higher because of some uncertain results at _ bit higher because of some uncertain results at the moment. i think 71 is the upper— results at the moment. i think 71 is the upper limit of what they have found _ the upper limit of what they have found. but there will be cases here. there _ found. but there will be cases here. there will— found. but there will be cases here. there will be cases all over the world _ there will be cases all over the world of— there will be cases all over the world of these variants. the key thing _ world of these variants. the key thing is — world of these variants. the key thing is to— world of these variants. the key thing is to identify, contact race and try— thing is to identify, contact race and try make sure we contain. clearly. — and try make sure we contain. clearly, the lockdown we are currently _ clearly, the lockdown we are currently in will have a large effect — currently in will have a large effect to _ currently in will have a large effect to keep this contained. it is important — effect to keep this contained. it is important to recognise there is no evidence — important to recognise there is no evidence that the south african or brazilian — evidence that the south african or brazilian variants have transmission advantages over what is already here _ advantages over what is already here so — advantages over what is already here. so they wouldn't be expected to spread _ here. so they wouldn't be expected to spread more quickly or take over. they may— to spread more quickly or take over.

they may actually have less, we don't _ they may actually have less, we don't know. i don't think the fact there _ don't know. i don't think the fact there are — don't know. i don't think the fact there are some cases here mean this will take _ there are some cases here mean this will take off— there are some cases here mean this will take off and become the dominant variant, that's not necessarily what you would expect, because _ necessarily what you would expect, because it — necessarily what you would expect, because it doesn't have a transmission advantage, as far as we know. _ transmission advantage, as far as we know. over— transmission advantage, as far as we know, over the current uk situation. but its— know, over the current uk situation. but it's obviously important we restrict— but it's obviously important we restrict the entrance of more variants _ restrict the entrance of more variants and we identify and contact race those — variants and we identify and contact race those that are here. chris? | race those that are here. chris? i think race those that are here. chris? think the race those that are here. chris? i think the only thing to add is the variant we have here is now spreading quite widely in other parts of the world, including for example in israel, which patrick talked about. variants do move around. they come from the uk and they come into the uk. that, i'm afraid, is the nature of these things. afraid, is the nature of these thins. , . afraid, is the nature of these thins. , , ., afraid, is the nature of these thins. , ., ., ., afraid, is the nature of these thinus. , ., ., ., things. just to go back on the point about when — things. just to go back on the point about when and _ things. just to go back on the point about when and under— things. just to go back on the point about when and under what - about when and under what circumstances you could conceivably consider beginning to relax... it remains our intention to look at where we are on the 15th, if we can

get to that first four coin hoards done. we will look at the pandemic and what is happening and make an assessment. also making assessments every day and where we are. currently, the rate of infection is forbidding lehi. ithink currently, the rate of infection is forbidding lehi. i think we have to be realistic about that. let's go to sam coates from sky.— be realistic about that. let's go to sam coates from sky. prime minister, if the new dominant _ sam coates from sky. prime minister, if the new dominant variant _ sam coates from sky. prime minister, if the new dominant variant in - sam coates from sky. prime minister, if the new dominant variant in this i if the new dominant variant in this country— if the new dominant variant in this country is — if the new dominant variant in this country is more _ if the new dominant variant in this country is more dangerous- if the new dominant variant in this country is more dangerous than i if the new dominant variant in this. country is more dangerous than the first one. _ country is more dangerous than the first one. is — country is more dangerous than the first one. is it— country is more dangerous than the first one, is it really— country is more dangerous than the first one, is it really right _ country is more dangerous than the first one, is it really right that - first one, is it really right that there — first one, is it really right that there are _ first one, is it really right that there are more _ first one, is it really right that there are more people - first one, is it really right that there are more people out. first one, is it really right thati there are more people out and first one, is it really right that - there are more people out and about than in _ there are more people out and about than in the _ there are more people out and about than in the first— there are more people out and about than in the first wave _ there are more people out and about than in the first wave and _ there are more people out and about than in the first wave and the - than in the first wave and the rules are more lax? is there _ than in the first wave and the rules are more lax? is there not- than in the first wave and the rules are more lax? is there not more i than in the first wave and the rules i are more lax? is there not more you could _ are more lax? is there not more you could do— are more lax? is there not more you could do to — are more lax? is there not more you could do to keep— are more lax? is there not more you could do to keep people _ are more lax? is there not more you could do to keep people safe, - are more lax? is there not more you could do to keep people safe, like i could do to keep people safe, like you did _ could do to keep people safe, like you did last— could do to keep people safe, like you did last year? _ could do to keep people safe, like you did last year? and _ could do to keep people safe, like you did last year? and sir- could do to keep people safe, like you did last year? and sir patrick, you did last year? and sir patrick, you said _ you did last year? and sir patrick, you said this— you did last year? and sir patrick, you said this new— you did last year? and sir patrick, you said this new variant - you did last year? and sir patrick, you said this new variant of- you said this new variant of coronavirus _ you said this new variant of coronavirus spreads - you said this new variant of coronavirus spreads more i you said this new variant of- coronavirus spreads more easily but you haven't — coronavirus spreads more easily but you haven't concluded _ coronavirus spreads more easily but you haven't concluded why. - coronavirus spreads more easily but you haven't concluded why. do i coronavirus spreads more easily but you haven't concluded why. do youl you haven't concluded why. do you have _ you haven't concluded why. do you have any— you haven't concluded why. do you have any early— you haven't concluded why. do you have any early theories _ you haven't concluded why. do you have any early theories as - you haven't concluded why. do you have any early theories as to - you haven't concluded why. do you have any early theories as to whatl have any early theories as to what is going _ have any early theories as to what is going on. — have any early theories as to what is going on. any— have any early theories as to what is going on, any different - have any early theories as to what i is going on, any different competing possibilities? — is going on, any different competing possibilities? to _ is going on, any different competing possibilities? to professor- is going on, any different competing possibilities? to professor whitty, l possibilities? to professor whitty, with infection _ possibilities? to professor whitty, with infection is _ possibilities? to professor whitty, with infection is now— possibilities? to professor whitty, with infection is now going - possibilities? to professor whitty, with infection is now going down i possibilities? to professor whitty, i with infection is now going down and the r_ with infection is now going down and the r number— with infection is now going down and the r number below— with infection is now going down and the r number below one, _ with infection is now going down and the r number below one, i'll- with infection is now going down and the r number below one, i'll be i with infection is now going down and the r number below one, i'll be at. the r number below one, i'll be at or even— the r number below one, i'll be at or even pass — the r number below one, i'll be at or even pass the _ the r number below one, i'll be at or even pass the peak _ the r number below one, i'll be at or even pass the peak of - the r number below one, i'll be at.

or even pass the peak of infections? sam. _ or even pass the peak of infections? sam. we _ or even pass the peak of infections? sam. we are — or even pass the peak of infections? sam, we are enforcing _ or even pass the peak of infections? sam, we are enforcing the _ or even pass the peak of infections? sam, we are enforcing the law- or even pass the peak of infections? sam, we are enforcing the law veryl sam, we are enforcing the law very stringently with increasing toughness. you will see what the home secretary had to say about fines. we will do it, we will enforce the law. we will make sure people don't... engage in activities that would mean mass transmission of the disease or substantial transmission of the disease but it depends on all of us, it depends on everybody watching, doing the right thing, avoiding transmission. that is far more powerful and far more effective in stopping the transmission of this virus than police action or new laws from the government. that is what it takes, the rules are very clear. stay at home, unless you have a very, very good reason for not staying at home. protect the nhs and save lives. i think the people of this country really understand that. all the evidence is they comply with the

measures when it is necessary and we will get it done. as i said, there are signs that this is working but it is going to need continued resolve and determination. in terms of wei . ht resolve and determination. in terms of weight may _ resolve and determination. in terms of weight may be — resolve and determination. in terms of weight may be transmitted i resolve and determination. in terms of weight may be transmitted more| of weight may be transmitted more readily. _ of weight may be transmitted more readily, people are looking at this in laboratories all over the world. ithink— in laboratories all over the world. i think one — in laboratories all over the world. i think one thing we don't think is the cause — i think one thing we don't think is the cause is— i think one thing we don't think is the cause is that people have a higher— the cause is that people have a higher viral load and shed more virus _ higher viral load and shed more virus we — higher viral load and shed more virus. we don't think that is the case _ virus. we don't think that is the case it— virus. we don't think that is the case it may— virus. we don't think that is the case. it may be that it binds more solidly— case. it may be that it binds more solidly to — case. it may be that it binds more solidly to the receptor for the virus. — solidly to the receptor for the virus. it— solidly to the receptor for the virus, it gets into cells more easily— virus, it gets into cells more easily as— virus, it gets into cells more easily as a _ virus, it gets into cells more easily as a result of that. it may be a _ easily as a result of that. it may be a gross — easily as a result of that. it may be a gross more readily in certain cell types — be a gross more readily in certain cell types. those are the things people — cell types. those are the things people are looking at and more information will come. i think what we can— information will come. i think what we can conclude is there must be some _ we can conclude is there must be some mechanism by which it can actually— some mechanism by which it can actually either bind or into cell somehow. in actually either bind or into cell somehow-— actually either bind or into cell somehow. , ., . ., somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if somehow. in terms of the infection rate. if you —

somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if you took _ somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if you took the _ somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if you took the country i somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if you took the country as i somehow. in terms of the infection rate, if you took the country as a i rate, if you took the country as a whole and just average debt, overall, the number of infections is broadly going down. but at a very, very high level and it is extremely precarious. i really want to stress this. a very small change, and it could start taking off again from an extremely high base and there are some areas of the country and some age groups in which it does not appear to be going down, example those 20—30, the evidences it is increasing in some parts of the country. it is not solidly going down and it is very, very high, so if it took off again it would do so from a high rate. in terms of infections. in terms of hospitalisations, which are delayed because people get infected, get ill and go into hospital, again, for the country as a whole, it is broadly flat at the moment. still going up in some parts, particularly in the north—west and parts of the midlands, for example. going down in parts of the east and south—east and bits of london. but that peak is not

yet definitely going down everywhere. then deaths, the last thing, that is going to be delayed further. i think the peak of deaths may still be in the future. so it depends which pq may still be in the future. so it depends which p0 are talking about but i'm just going to go back to the first point. this is high, very high and very precarious. if people took this moment and said that's it, it is over, you would get back into very deep trouble, very fast. the nhs is absolutely at the top of what it can manage. if it happened again, we would be in really, really deep trouble. . ~ we would be in really, really deep trouble. ., ,, , ., ~ , trouble. thank you, prime minister. in a video posted _ trouble. thank you, prime minister. in a video posted online _ trouble. thank you, prime minister. in a video posted online this - in a video posted online this afternoon. _ in a video posted online this afternoon, the _ in a video posted online this afternoon, the health - in a video posted online this. afternoon, the health secretary in a video posted online this- afternoon, the health secretary told travel _ afternoon, the health secretary told travel agents — afternoon, the health secretary told travel agents that _ afternoon, the health secretary told travel agents that the _ afternoon, the health secretary told travel agents that the south - afternoon, the health secretary told travel agents that the south africanl travel agents that the south african strain— travel agents that the south african strain could — travel agents that the south african strain could be _ travel agents that the south african strain could be a _ travel agents that the south african strain could be a 50% _ travel agents that the south african strain could be a 50% more - travel agents that the south africanl strain could be a 50% more resistant to the _ strain could be a 50% more resistant to the vaccine — strain could be a 50% more resistant to the vaccine than _ strain could be a 50% more resistant to the vaccine than the _ strain could be a 50% more resistant to the vaccine than the original - to the vaccine than the original variant— to the vaccine than the original variant and _ to the vaccine than the original variant and that _ to the vaccine than the original variant and that allowing - to the vaccine than the original variant and that allowing it i to the vaccine than the originalj variant and that allowing it into the country _ variant and that allowing it into the country would _ variant and that allowing it into the country would take - variant and that allowing it into the country would take us i variant and that allowing it into the country would take us backj variant and that allowing it into i the country would take us back to

square _ the country would take us back to square one — the country would take us back to square one is— the country would take us back to square one. is that _ the country would take us back to square one. is that correct - the country would take us back to square one. is that correct and i the country would take us back to i square one. is that correct and does it affect _ square one. is that correct and does it affect the — square one. is that correct and does it affect the decision _ square one. is that correct and does it affect the decision you _ square one. is that correct and does it affect the decision you are - square one. is that correct and does it affect the decision you are going i it affect the decision you are going to take _ it affect the decision you are going to take soon — it affect the decision you are going to take soon about _ it affect the decision you are going to take soon about whether - it affect the decision you are going to take soon about whether to i it affect the decision you are going i to take soon about whether to close our borders — to take soon about whether to close our borders to — to take soon about whether to close our borders to all _ to take soon about whether to close our borders to all foreign _ our borders to all foreign travellers? _ our borders to all foreign travellers? and - our borders to all foreign travellers? and sir- our borders to all foreign i travellers? and sir patrick, in our borders to all foreign - travellers? and sir patrick, in the study— travellers? and sir patrick, in the study referred _ travellers? and sir patrick, in the study referred to _ travellers? and sir patrick, in the study referred to earlier, - travellers? and sir patrick, in the study referred to earlier, i- travellers? and sir patrick, in the| study referred to earlier, i believe one of— study referred to earlier, i believe one of the — study referred to earlier, i believe one of the universities, _ study referred to earlier, i believe one of the universities, exeter- one of the universities, exeter university. _ one of the universities, exeter university, found _ one of the universities, exeter university, found the - one of the universities, exeter university, found the new- one of the universities, exeteri university, found the new strain one of the universities, exeter- university, found the new strain can be 9i% _ university, found the new strain can be 9i% more — university, found the new strain can be 91% more deadly— university, found the new strain can be 91% more deadly than _ university, found the new strain can be 91% more deadly than the - university, found the new strain canl be 91% more deadly than the original straight _ be 91% more deadly than the original straight and — be 91% more deadly than the original straight and i— be 91% more deadly than the original straight and i wondered _ be 91% more deadly than the original straight and i wondered if— be 91% more deadly than the original straight and i wondered if you - be 91% more deadly than the original straight and i wondered if you could. straight and i wondered if you could address— straight and i wondered if you could address the — straight and i wondered if you could address the discrepancies _ straight and i wondered if you could address the discrepancies betweenl address the discrepancies between the different— address the discrepancies between the different universities _ address the discrepancies between the different universities that i the different universities that studied — the different universities that studied it? _ the different universities that studied it? i— the different universities that studied it?— the different universities that studied it? _, . ,, a , studied it? i will come back quickly on what we're _ studied it? i will come back quickly on what we're doing _ studied it? i will come back quickly on what we're doing to _ studied it? i will come back quickly on what we're doing to protect i studied it? i will come back quickly on what we're doing to protect our| on what we're doing to protect our borders and make we stop arrivals, and we stop people coming in from south africa for non—uk nationals on the 24th of december and our general policy to the world is that anybody coming in now has to test within 72

hours of flying, you have to produce a passenger locatorform hours of flying, you have to produce a passenger locator form and the airline must ask you to produce both those things and will kick you off the plane if you don't have it and you then have to quarantine for ten days when you arrive, or five days if you get a second test. we are actively taking some pretty rigorous measures to ensure people do in fact quarantine. and i really do not rule out that we may need to take further measures still, we may need to go further to protect our borders because we do not want after all the effort we are going to in this country, the massive effort, the success the nhs and the others are having in vaccinating 5.4 million people, as they have done, 400,000 injust one day, people, as they have done, 400,000 in just one day, we don't want to put that at risk by having a new

variant comeback in. as to the details of the changes implied by the south african variant, its resistance to the vaccine or otherwise, i will ask patrick to comment. otherwise, i will ask patrick to comment-— otherwise, i will ask patrick to comment. �* , �* ., ., otherwise, i will ask patrick to comment. , �* ., comment. i'm sorry, i'm going to be a bore about — comment. i'm sorry, i'm going to be a bore about this. _ comment. i'm sorry, i'm going to be a bore about this. these _ comment. i'm sorry, i'm going to be a bore about this. these are - a bore about this. these are difficult _ a bore about this. these are difficult laboratory studies and people — difficult laboratory studies and people are trying to look at how effectively antibodies neutralise various— effectively antibodies neutralise various forms of the virus or various— various forms of the virus or various parts of viruses. they will .et various parts of viruses. they will get different results in different laboratories and not all of the immune — laboratories and not all of the immune response is an antibody response — immune response is an antibody response. so taking a result from a laboratory— response. so taking a result from a laboratory and saying therefore the vaccine _ laboratory and saying therefore the vaccine will be 50% less effective, you just _ vaccine will be 50% less effective, you just can't do it. we will see different— you just can't do it. we will see different results coming up on all of these — different results coming up on all of these. ultimately, it will be clinical— of these. ultimately, it will be clinical data that will tell us and we will— clinical data that will tell us and we will not get clinical data

because _ we will not get clinical data because there is vaccination occurring _ because there is vaccination occurring in south africa and in brazil — occurring in south africa and in brazil and _ occurring in south africa and in brazil and we will find out how effective — brazil and we will find out how effective the vaccines are against this _ effective the vaccines are against this it _ effective the vaccines are against this it is — effective the vaccines are against this. it is the case that both the south _ this. it is the case that both the south african and brazilian identified variants have more differences in shape, which might mean _ differences in shape, which might mean that— differences in shape, which might mean that they are recognised differently by antibodies and therefore the laboratory studies are suggesting a decreased binding but i think it _ suggesting a decreased binding but i think it is _ suggesting a decreased binding but i think it is too early to know the effect _ think it is too early to know the effect that will have on the vaccination in people and it is worth— vaccination in people and it is worth remembering that the response of the _ worth remembering that the response of the vaccine is very, very high antibody— of the vaccine is very, very high antibody levels so that may overcome some _ antibody levels so that may overcome some of— antibody levels so that may overcome some of this but we don't know, is the answer. — some of this but we don't know, is the answer, but there is honestly a cause _ the answer, but there is honestly a cause for— the answer, but there is honestly a cause for concern. in terms of your comment— cause for concern. in terms of your comment about one of the papers, it's worth _ comment about one of the papers, it's worth looking at all the papers that came — it's worth looking at all the papers that came to the nervtag group, some suggested _ that came to the nervtag group, some suggested no increase in mortality at all— suggested no increase in mortality at all so _ suggested no increase in mortality at all so there is a range of things and also — at all so there is a range of things and also data from hospitals showing

there is _ and also data from hospitals showing there is no _ and also data from hospitals showing there is no difference in outcome in patients— there is no difference in outcome in patients in— there is no difference in outcome in patients in hospitals. there is a range _ patients in hospitals. there is a range of— patients in hospitals. there is a range of data and the reason we have an expert _ range of data and the reason we have an expert group like nervtag to bring _ an expert group like nervtag to bring together people from different disciplines to look at this is to try to — disciplines to look at this is to try to come out with what they think is probably— try to come out with what they think is probably the most likely and at the moment, what they have said is that there _ the moment, what they have said is that there is — the moment, what they have said is that there is a realistic possibility that there could be an increase — possibility that there could be an increase in mortality. and that looks— increase in mortality. and that looks like. _ increase in mortality. and that looks like, as i said, if you were to take — looks like, as i said, if you were to take somebody in their 60s who might— to take somebody in their 60s who might have ten out of thousand people — might have ten out of thousand people infected might die, that would — people infected might die, that would change it to 13 or 14 out of 1000. _ would change it to 13 or 14 out of 1000, that's the sort of figure, but there _ 1000, that's the sort of figure, but there is— 1000, that's the sort of figure, but there is a _ 1000, that's the sort of figure, but there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot more _ there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot more work— there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot more work that needs to go on and i really— more work that needs to go on and i really urge _ more work that needs to go on and i really urge againstjust more work that needs to go on and i really urge against just picking the highest _ really urge against just picking the highest number and assuming that's correct. _ highest number and assuming that's correct. i_ highest number and assuming that's correct, i don't think that's the case _ correct, i don't think that's the case at — correct, i don't think that's the case at alt _ correct, i don't think that's the case at all-— correct, i don't think that's the case at all. , ., ., ., case at all. just to add one point to that, case at all. just to add one point to that. that — case at all. just to add one point to that, that there _ case at all. just to add one point to that, that there are _ case at all. just to add one point to that, that there are very i case at all. just to add one point| to that, that there are very many vaccines which even if they don't protect from infection can prevent severe disease. it's possible, we don't know this, that what we could

end up with is the current vaccines still protect to a large degree against severe disease and dying, evenif against severe disease and dying, even if they are less effective against infection because of a change. we don't know this but that is entirely in keeping with some other vaccines. vaccination against severe disease is often more effective than just against infection and the first thing you will probably lose is vaccination against infection put the key thing is to get the vaccines out and measure, measure, measure and assess what we are doing. measure, measure, measure and assess what we are doing-— measure, measure, measure and assess what we are doing._ thank- what we are doing. thank you. thank ou ve what we are doing. thank you. thank you very much- _ what we are doing. thank you. thank you very much. prime _ what we are doing. thank you. thank you very much. prime minister, - what we are doing. thank you. thank you very much. prime minister, you | you very much. prime minister, you have _ you very much. prime minister, you have struck— you very much. prime minister, you have struck quite _ you very much. prime minister, you have struck quite a _ you very much. prime minister, you have struck quite a cautious - you very much. prime minister, you have struck quite a cautious note i have struck quite a cautious note but at _ have struck quite a cautious note but at the — have struck quite a cautious note but at the same _ have struck quite a cautious note but at the same time _ have struck quite a cautious note but at the same time people - have struck quite a cautious note but at the same time people willj but at the same time people will look at _ but at the same time people will look at the — but at the same time people will look at the vaccination _ but at the same time people will look at the vaccination figures i but at the same time people will. look at the vaccination figures and think_ look at the vaccination figures and think that — look at the vaccination figures and think that if— look at the vaccination figures and think that if we — look at the vaccination figures and think that if we vaccinate - look at the vaccination figures and think that if we vaccinate all - look at the vaccination figures and think that if we vaccinate all the l think that if we vaccinate all the vulnerable — think that if we vaccinate all the vulnerable people _ think that if we vaccinate all the vulnerable people quite - think that if we vaccinate all the vulnerable people quite soon. think that if we vaccinate all the l vulnerable people quite soon life could _ vulnerable people quite soon life could return _ vulnerable people quite soon life could return to _ vulnerable people quite soon life could return to normal— vulnerable people quite soon life could return to normal by- vulnerable people quite soon life| could return to normal by easter, maybe _ could return to normal by easter, maybe a — could return to normal by easter, maybe a month _ could return to normal by easter, maybe a month or— could return to normal by easter, maybe a month or two _ could return to normal by easter, | maybe a month or two afterwards could return to normal by easter, - maybe a month or two afterwards but a scientist _ maybe a month or two afterwards but a scientist this— maybe a month or two afterwards but a scientist this week _ maybe a month or two afterwards but a scientist this week have _ maybe a month or two afterwards but a scientist this week have been - a scientist this week have been strongly— a scientist this week have been strongly saying _ a scientist this week have been strongly saying that _ a scientist this week have been strongly saying that lockdown i strongly saying that lockdown measures _ strongly saying that lockdown measures would _ strongly saying that lockdown measures would have - strongly saying that lockdown measures would have to - strongly saying that lockdown measures would have to be . strongly saying that lockdown - measures would have to be lifted very gradually— measures would have to be lifted very gradually and _ measures would have to be lifted very gradually and that _ measures would have to be liftedj very gradually and that mitigation nreasures— very gradually and that mitigation measures might _ very gradually and that mitigation measures might need _ very gradually and that mitigation measures might need to- very gradually and that mitigation measures might need to be - very gradually and that mitigation measures might need to be in- very gradually and that mitigation . measures might need to be in place

for some _ measures might need to be in place for some tinre _ measures might need to be in place for some time. do _ measures might need to be in place for some time. do you _ measures might need to be in place for some time. do you think- measures might need to be in place for some time. do you think the - for some time. do you think the british— for some time. do you think the british public— for some time. do you think the british public are _ for some time. do you think the british public are ready- for some time. do you think the british public are ready for- for some time. do you think the british public are ready for quite how long — british public are ready for quite how long it— british public are ready for quite how long it could _ british public are ready for quite how long it could take _ british public are ready for quite how long it could take and - british public are ready for quite how long it could take and for. british public are ready for quite i how long it could take and for sir patrick— how long it could take and for sir patrick or— how long it could take and for sir patrick or professor— how long it could take and for sir patrick or professor whitty, - how long it could take and for sir patrick or professor whitty, do . how long it could take and for sir. patrick or professor whitty, do you agree _ patrick or professor whitty, do you agree we _ patrick or professor whitty, do you agree we could _ patrick or professor whitty, do you agree we could have _ patrick or professor whitty, do you agree we could have mitigation- agree we could have mitigation nreasures— agree we could have mitigation measures in— agree we could have mitigation measures in for— agree we could have mitigation measures in for a _ agree we could have mitigation measures in for a long - agree we could have mitigation measures in for a long time? l agree we could have mitigation measures in for a long time? peter, i think we measures in for a long time? peter, i think we will— measures in for a long time? peter, i think we will have _ measures in for a long time? peter, i think we will have to _ measures in for a long time? peter, i think we will have to live _ measures in for a long time? peter, i think we will have to live with - i think we will have to live with coronavirus in one way or another for a long while to come. i think it is an open question as to when and in what way we can start to relax any of the measures and it depends entirely, as i said earlier, on a lot of different things, on the vaccine roll—out continues to go well, it depends on there being no further discoveries about what new variants can do, it depends most of all on getting the overall incidence down to a level from which it cannot just take off again in the way that we have seen it do before. we will look at things continuously.

obviously, we want to do everything we can to open up but only safely, only cautiously, and i think in my view that is overwhelmingly what the british public want. i also think that the british public and british business would much rather we opened safely and cautiously when it was right to do so rather than opening up right to do so rather than opening up again and then being forced to close back down simply because the virus takes off again. you see what i mean? ithink virus takes off again. you see what i mean? i think that is a far more sensible approach. that does not mean i'm not optimistic about the roll—out of the vaccine and the amazing pace at which it is happening, the change that could mean, could mean, but at this stage you have really got to be very cautious indeed. i should just add by the way, that the first thing we want to be able to reopen, if we can

make any progress, will of course be schools and that remains the priority. i schools and that remains the riori . ., �* ~' , , priority. i don't think this virus is auoin priority. i don't think this virus is going anywhere, _ priority. i don't think this virus is going anywhere, it's - priority. i don't think this virus is going anywhere, it's going l priority. i don't think this virus | is going anywhere, it's going to stay— is going anywhere, it's going to stay around and therefore the answer is it wiii— stay around and therefore the answer is it will be _ stay around and therefore the answer is it will be around i think probably forever. as a virus. but it will be _ probably forever. as a virus. but it will be controlled and there is remarkable progress occurring now. the vaccines are being rolled out at an unprecedented pace, we have more vaccines— an unprecedented pace, we have more vaccines we _ an unprecedented pace, we have more vaccines we could ever have dreamt of a year _ vaccines we could ever have dreamt of a year ago, the idea that we have many— of a year ago, the idea that we have many vaccines coming through the pipeline _ many vaccines coming through the pipeline is— many vaccines coming through the pipeline is incredibly important, including — pipeline is incredibly important, including ones we can alter as needs be. including ones we can alter as needs be and _ including ones we can alter as needs be. and there are new medicines coming _ be. and there are new medicines coming along, including specific antiviral— coming along, including specific antiviral drugs which will be going into the _ antiviral drugs which will be going into the clinic over the course of this year— into the clinic over the course of this year so— into the clinic over the course of this year so i think there is a very different— this year so i think there is a very different outlook as we go through the year _ different outlook as we go through the year. the key thing i think is to keep — the year. the key thing i think is to keep watching, measuring and assessing — to keep watching, measuring and assessing where we are not getting too hooked up on specific dates because — too hooked up on specific dates because we don't know at the moment.

we need _ because we don't know at the moment. we need to— because we don't know at the moment. we need to watch and wait and measure — we need to watch and wait and measure and release carefully as we io measure and release carefully as we go through— measure and release carefully as we go through it. that would be our advice — go through it. that would be our advice i— go through it. that would be our advice. .., , , ., advice. i completely agree with the prime minister _ advice. i completely agree with the prime minister and _ advice. i completely agree with the prime minister and patrick. - advice. i completely agree with the prime minister and patrick. a - prime minister and patrick. a question to patrick vallance and chris— question to patrick vallance and chris whittv _ question to patrick vallance and chris whitty sage _ question to patrick vallance and chris whitty sage minutes - question to patrick vallance and chris whitty sage minutes froml question to patrick vallance and i chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting — chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting on— chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting onjanuary_ chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting on january seven - chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting on january seven to - chris whitty sage minutes from a meeting on january seven to sayi meeting on january seven to say there — meeting on january seven to say there is— meeting on january seven to say there is an — meeting on january seven to say there is an unquantifiable - meeting on january seven to say there is an unquantifiable but i there is an unquantifiable but likely— there is an unquantifiable but likely smaii _ there is an unquantifiable but likely small probability- there is an unquantifiable but likely small probability of- there is an unquantifiable but likely small probability of a l likely small probability of a delayed _ likely small probability of a delayed second _ likely small probability of a delayed second dose - likely small probability of a - delayed second dose generating a vaccine _ delayed second dose generating a vaccine resistance _ delayed second dose generating a vaccine resistance mutation. - delayed second dose generating a vaccine resistance mutation. in i vaccine resistance mutation. in lehmans— vaccine resistance mutation. in lehmans terms. _ vaccine resistance mutation. in lehmans terms, does - vaccine resistance mutation. in lehmans terms, does that - vaccine resistance mutation. in i lehmans terms, does that mean vaccine resistance mutation. in - lehmans terms, does that mean the decision— lehmans terms, does that mean the decision to _ lehmans terms, does that mean the decision to delay— lehmans terms, does that mean the decision to delay the _ lehmans terms, does that mean the decision to delay the second - lehmans terms, does that mean the decision to delay the second dose i decision to delay the second dose actually— decision to delay the second dose actuaiiv risks _ decision to delay the second dose actually risks making _ decision to delay the second dose actually risks making the - decision to delay the second dose actually risks making the virus - actually risks making the virus itseif — actually risks making the virus itseif more _ actually risks making the virus itself more dangerous - actually risks making the virus itself more dangerous and - actually risks making the virus itself more dangerous and if. actually risks making the virus i itself more dangerous and if so, what _ itself more dangerous and if so, what are — itself more dangerous and if so, what are you _ itself more dangerous and if so, what are you doing _ itself more dangerous and if so, what are you doing about - itself more dangerous and if so, what are you doing about that? i itself more dangerous and if so, - what are you doing about that? and for the _ what are you doing about that? and for the prime — what are you doing about that? and for the prime minister, _ what are you doing about that? and for the prime minister, you - for the prime minister, you mentioned _ for the prime minister, you mentioned businesses- for the prime minister, you - mentioned businesses wanting to avoid _ mentioned businesses wanting to avoid the — mentioned businesses wanting to avoid the cycle _ mentioned businesses wanting to avoid the cycle of _ mentioned businesses wanting to avoid the cycle of lockdowns - mentioned businesses wanting to i avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, but the _ avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, but the furlough _ avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, but the furlough programme - avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, but the furlough programme is - avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, but the furlough programme is duej avoid the cycle of lockdowns again, i but the furlough programme is due to come _ but the furlough programme is due to come to— but the furlough programme is due to come to an _ but the furlough programme is due to come to an end — but the furlough programme is due to come to an end at— but the furlough programme is due to come to an end at the _ but the furlough programme is due to come to an end at the end _ but the furlough programme is due to come to an end at the end of- but the furlough programme is due to come to an end at the end of april- come to an end at the end of april so can— come to an end at the end of april so can you — come to an end at the end of april so can you at _ come to an end at the end of april so can you at least _ come to an end at the end of april so can you at least give _ come to an end at the end of april so can you at least give some - so can you at least give some reassurance _ so can you at least give some reassurance you _ so can you at least give some reassurance you will- so can you at least give some reassurance you will continuej reassurance you will continue furlough _ reassurance you will continue furlough or _ reassurance you will continue furlough or consider- reassurance you will continue furlough or consider doing i reassurance you will continue furlough or consider doing soj reassurance you will continue - furlough or consider doing so after that point— furlough or consider doing so after that point if— furlough or consider doing so after that point if restrictions _ furlough or consider doing so after that point if restrictions are - furlough or consider doing so after that point if restrictions are still. that point if restrictions are still in place? — that point if restrictions are still in lace?

in place? the most risky thing in terms of new — in place? the most risky thing in terms of new mutations - in place? the most risky thing in terms of new mutations is - in place? the most risky thing in terms of new mutations is to - in place? the most risky thing in i terms of new mutations is to have very high— terms of new mutations is to have very high prevalence. the more the virus _ very high prevalence. the more the virus is _ very high prevalence. the more the virus is replicating and transmitted between _ virus is replicating and transmitted between people, the more chance it will get _ between people, the more chance it will get a _ between people, the more chance it will get a mutation and altar and that's— will get a mutation and altar and that's what's happening around the world _ that's what's happening around the world and — that's what's happening around the world and it's why we're seeing the same _ world and it's why we're seeing the same mutations popped up everywhere. these _ same mutations popped up everywhere. these mutations have not about because — these mutations have not about because of vaccine pressure or anything — because of vaccine pressure or anything else, they seem to be mutations that the virus accumulates naturally— mutations that the virus accumulates naturally during replication as it wants— naturally during replication as it wants to — naturally during replication as it wants to get more efficient at transmitting. so i think that is the iriggest _ transmitting. so i think that is the biggest risk. there is always some risk if— biggest risk. there is always some risk if you — biggest risk. there is always some risk if you start to have partial immunity— risk if you start to have partial immunity but there is also a benefit which _ immunity but there is also a benefit which is _ immunity but there is also a benefit which is partial immunity can actually— which is partial immunity can actually stop the infection quicker so i actually stop the infection quicker so i think— actually stop the infection quicker so i think that was a statement from the immunologists and an appropriately cautious one but i don't _ appropriately cautious one but i don't think it's the biggest risk. all of— don't think it's the biggest risk. all of medicine is about balance of risk and it's important we consider

the risk on both sides and we don't try to only look at the positive sides in a course of action, but both sides and that is what sage is doing and what we try to do in all the decisions we take. our overall view was the balance of risk was firmly in favour at this stage of the epidemic in the uk of having many more people vaccinated but that doesn't mean the delay. but i think most people would agree the risk identified, that particular risk, was a relatively much smaller risk than the risk of not having people vaccinated which essentially was the alternative. fin vaccinated which essentially was the alternative. , ., , ., vaccinated which essentially was the alternative. , ., ,., ., ,., alternative. on your point about su ort alternative. on your point about support for— alternative. on your point about support for business _ alternative. on your point about support for business and - alternative. on your point about support for business and for- alternative. on your point about i support for business and forjobs, we will do whatever it takes to support the people of this country throughout this pandemic, to support jobs and livelihoods as we have done throughout. but obviously the faster we can roll out the vaccine, the faster we can get on with giving businesses what they really want which is a certainty about being able to resume something like life

and business as usual. but getting there depends, as i think i've been a pretty consistent message this afternoon, on our ability notjust to roll out the vaccine but also to make sure that we work together to get the infection rate down and that means obeying the rules today, staying at home, protecting the nhs, saving lives. thank you very much. studio: there is the prime minister bringing to an end the latest downing street briefing. let's take a look back at what the prime minister just told us. first up, he said there's "some evidence" that new variant of the coronavirus first identified in london and the south east may be associated with higher degree of mortality. for men in their 60s, that means an increase from roughly ten deaths per 1,000 cases to about 13—14 deaths per 1,000 cases. the number of people currently in hospital in the uk is 78% higher

than during the first peak in april, though that increase is now flattening out. the prime minister then confirmed that current evidence shows both vaccines being used across the uk are effective against both the old and the new variant. 5.4 million people have now received their first vaccine dose, including a record 400,000 vaccines given over the last 2a hours. overall, one in ten adults in england have now been vaccinated, including 71% over 80s and two thirds of all care home residents. 151,000 vaccines have been given in northern ireland, 358,000 in scotland and 212,000 in wales. and borisjohnson said the govenrment is confident it's on track to reach goal of giving a first dose of the vaccine to everyone in the top four priority groups by the end of february. our health correspondent

katharine da costa is with me now. and there's listening to all of that of course. the big thing we were told was about the new variant being associated with a higher level of mortality. associated with a higher level of mortali . ., , associated with a higher level of mortali . . , ,, mortality. that is right, sir patrick vallance _ mortality. that is right, sir patrick vallance said - mortality. that is right, sir patrick vallance said three | mortality. that is right, sir - patrick vallance said three areas of concern, that found in the uk, south africa and brazil. scientists have been trying to work out how the uk variant behaves. they found it is more contagious. so they are confident it is more transmissible and they said they are still confident that it will be... vaccines will be effective against past and new variants that when it comes to severity, sir patrick vallance said they looked at patients in hospital and it looked to be the same outcome is that when they looked at all of those who tested positive, there was evidence of a slight increased risk of dying with the new variant. it is quite small. so your example, ten out of 1000 were expected to die with the

old variant. that increase to 13—14 out of 1000 with the new variant. but there are many caveats. there is a lot of uncertainty. some of the report that fed into this found there was no increased risk at all and that more research is needed. he said that they know less about the south african and brazil variants. there is concern there because they think it could be less susceptible to vaccines but again, much more research needed. 5ir to vaccines but again, much more research needed.— research needed. sir patrick vallance played _ research needed. sir patrick vallance played down - research needed. sir patrick i vallance played down concerns research needed. sir patrick - vallance played down concerns when research needed. sir patrick _ vallance played down concerns when a question was raised about the efficacy of a single dose of the pfizer vaccine, efficacy of a single dose of the pfizervaccine, based efficacy of a single dose of the pfizer vaccine, based on research coming out of israel? that pfizer vaccine, based on research coming out of israel?— pfizer vaccine, based on research coming out of israel? that is right because he _ coming out of israel? that is right because he said _ coming out of israel? that is right because he said it _ coming out of israel? that is right because he said it was _ coming out of israel? that is right because he said it was from - coming out of israel? that is right because he said it was from an . because he said it was from an organisation dealing with health. again, preliminary data. not sure of the final data so this is something that will be closely monitored but he did play it down because not enough people had been followed for

long enough. but if you go back to the trial data for pfizer, it was found to be highly effective. so a lot of confidence here in the uk that we do get a lot of protection from the first dose. {lila that we do get a lot of protection from the first dose.— that we do get a lot of protection from the first dose. ok, as always, thank you- — from the first dose. ok, as always, thank you- our _ from the first dose. ok, as always, thank you. our health _ from the first dose. ok, as always, i thank you. our health correspondent, katharine da costa. our poltical correspondent leila nathoo is at westminster. questions of course as anticipated about the lockdown and also about borders, run us through what struck you. borders, run us through what struck ou, ,, ., , ., you. strong hints from the prime minister about _ you. strong hints from the prime minister about his _ you. strong hints from the prime minister about his thinking - you. strong hints from the prime minister about his thinking on . you. strong hints from the prime i minister about his thinking on both of those issues. striking quite a note of caution on the lockdown, saying we can't possibly consider unlocking until the vaccine is working, he said. untilthey unlocking until the vaccine is working, he said. until they can be sure that the new variants are not so deadly or transmissible. we know there is concern about new variants at the moment, as you are discussing, and saying there is no

change in the understanding of the virus. he said specifically he did not want to risk another rebound of the virus, so the risk of cases spiralling, as they have done after every lockdown so far. i think that gives you an indication of where the prime minister is out on that. saying look, this is notjust about the roll—out of live vaccine and we can't possibly think about unlocking whilst case numbers are so high. what it appears as the prime minister is thinking he needs to be extra cautious about lifting restrictions must remember, there is pressure from his own backbenchers over this, pressure from his own backbenchers overthis, people pressure from his own backbenchers over this, people in his own party who are questioning why, when are the majority of vulnerable people going to be vaccinated, in the next month or so? can we then not consider relaxing restrictions across the country? the prime minister sounding very cautious, pointing to the evolution and understanding of the virus. there was a lot of talk today about the new variants. so while all of these things are in the mix, just because

the vaccine roll—out is going on in the vaccine roll—out is going on in the background are more people are being protected, that doesn't mean, in his view, that restrictions can start to be eased. i thought that was particularly interesting to hear his language on that. and borders, we had a lot of talk about the restrictions at the borders which are now pretty tough. you have to have the 72 hour notice of a negative test result is that you do have to quarantine and provide a passenger locator form by law to the airline before you travel. those measures are now in place. there has been a lot of criticism border restrictions have not been tough enough for long enough. we have been debating about whether there has been a bit of difference within government about that. boris johnson saying he doesn't rule out taking further measures. so perhaps another indication of what the government is thinking on this. there has been talk about hotel quarantine, for example, so people who are forced to quarantine have to do it in a mandated address, so it can be better enforced. i think you can see the direction of travel here, that

we are thinking about possibly more restrictions and especially to keep out new variants of the virus, concern about the south african variant and questions on whether it will be resistant to the vaccine. lots to look out for in the coming weeks. yes, and in the coming weeks, borisjohnson is that it is the government's intention to review the situation on february 15 to make an assessment but he seemed to be suggesting it was steady as she goes for the moment?— suggesting it was steady as she goes for the moment? absolutely. there is an official review _ for the moment? absolutely. there is an official review point _ for the moment? absolutely. there is an official review point in _ for the moment? absolutely. there is an official review point in the - an official review point in the middle of february but i think all the sciences that will not be the time when we suddenly see a huge relaxation or announcement of a road map out of this because the middle of february is the point where the government aims to have those top four groups vaccinated, the most vulnerable groups, those at risk of serious illness of dying from the virus. that is the target date by when they will be vaccinated. the immunity protection doesn't kick in

until two or three weeks after that. i think it is difficult to imagine restrictions being relaxed soon after then. the message from chris whitty, the chief medical officer, was cases are very high at the moment. the number of deaths are still very high. we could be seeing more deaths in the coming weeks as a result of the time lag, even though there are signs the cases are coming down. even if cases are levelling off or coming down, they are still at a very high rate and you had that point being made quite a lot during this briefing today. so i think anyone looking for an imminent easing of restrictions may have to wait quite a bit longer. find easing of restrictions may have to wait quite a bit longer.— wait quite a bit longer. and to heard that _ wait quite a bit longer. and to heard that message _ wait quite a bit longer. and to heard that message of- wait quite a bit longer. and to heard that message of the - wait quite a bit longer. and to - heard that message of the difficulty of the health service facing at the moment from chris whitty, who said that it moment from chris whitty, who said thatitis moment from chris whitty, who said that it is under real strain and that it is under real strain and that another surge would be really very bad? i that another surge would be really ve bad? ~ that another surge would be really ve bad? ,, ., that another surge would be really ve bad? ,, . ., , very bad? i think that was interesting. _ very bad? i think that was interesting. exactly, - very bad? i think that was i interesting. exactly, talking very bad? i think that was - interesting. exactly, talking about the prime minister's language as

well, not risking another rebound. this is an acute time for the health service anyway, so this is a particularly critical moment for the health service. if you have more important people going into hospital, the health service will be feeling that. as we go through the year into the warmer months, that pressure will receive naturally because people will not be going to hospital for other reasons that are usually associated with the winter. but that is still some way off. we have, unfortunately, many colder months still ahead and i think that pressure on the health service will remain and that has been one of the main factor is the government has been focusing on throughout this. it is notjust about been focusing on throughout this. it is not just about the been focusing on throughout this. it is notjust about the number of cases circulating about whether the health service can actually cope with all the people coming into hospital. we are talking about the new variant of the virus that has been detected. sir patrick vallance saying is 40% more easily spread. if you have it spreading more quickly

and more cases, you therefore have more people going into hospital, if it is not a more deadly strain, when there is actually evidence of that even for so you can see the thinking and why there is maximum caution in government about the way ahead and i think because we are talking about the winter months, because of the time—lag between infection, hospitalisation and deaths, we still have a long way to go, the message was from borisjohnson, before we can think about relaxing the restrictions at all.— can think about relaxing the restrictions at all. leila nathoo, many thanks- — restrictions at all. leila nathoo, many thanks. jonathan - restrictions at all. leila nathoo, | many thanks. jonathan ashworth restrictions at all. leila nathoo, - many thanks. jonathan ashworth has been speaking with his reaction in the past few minutes. this been speaking with his reaction in the past few minutes.— the past few minutes. this is deel , the past few minutes. this is deeply. deeply _ the past few minutes. this is deeply, deeply worrying, - the past few minutes. this is - deeply, deeply worrying, alarming news, about the new variant apparently being more deadly. we had been told by borisjohnson in december that he didn't believe the new variant would be more deadly. he

has obviously now got new evidence. it has been devastating, nearly 96,000 died, over 1000 dying a day since january. what i think this brings home is we really have to go further and faster on vaccinations that we have to get those vaccines rolled out to save people. but we also have to put in measures to support people and break trains of transmission now. so i find it bewildering, bewilderingly negligent that the government still isn't giving people proper sick pay and financial support to isolate. we thought we were going to get that today but apparently boris johnson and today but apparently borisjohnson and rishi sunak today but apparently boris johnson and rishi sunak have blocked it. that was a labour�*s jonathan ashworth. time now for a look at the weather with ben rich. those that have flooded this week should have a chance to dry out. we should have something colder. spells of sunshine

and also some snow in places. what we have is no pressure to the north—east. the remnants of storm christoph. with the low sitting to the north—east, it is driving a northerly wind. that is going to be feeding quite a few wintry showers in through tonight, though xiao was moving in from the north—west. some sleet and snow even to low levels and some widespread ice, with temperatures dropping to freezing or below. we could get to —8 or —9 across parts of eastern scotland. a frosty and icy start to tomorrow morning, with a covering in snow in places. a little frog first thing in southern counties of england. as we go through the day, it turns into a sunshine and wintry showers today. the showers in the afternoon lining up the showers in the afternoon lining up across western scotland into north—west england, merseyside, the midlands, perhaps getting into east anglia. these could be wintry even to quite low levels but certainly over the hills. temperatures of 2—7 and it will quickly turn cold again

during saturday night, with a widespread frost. and then we are keeping a close eye on this little weather feature pushing keeping a close eye on this little weatherfeature pushing in from keeping a close eye on this little weather feature pushing in from the west. quite a small scale weather feature and there is still some uncertainty about exactly how it will behave. and just how far east or north it will get across the british isles. different computer weather models have slightly different ideas but certainly during sunday, there is the chance for some snow across parts of england and wales. but don't take this chart too literally, there is uncertainty about how far east and how far north that sleet and snow will get. some places could see a covering of a few centimetres or more over high ground. sunshine and wintry showers further north, certainly a very cold feeling day. some places barely getting above freezing. we start next week in the cold air but that will change. milderair next week in the cold air but that will change. milder air is going to surge in from the south—west but with that milder air, we will have rain bearing weather systems. so

more wet weather to come next week. worth staying in touch with the forecast because there could be further flooding.

tonight at 6:00pm, there's evidence that the uk's new variant of coronavirus could be more deadly than the original virus. the prime minister says preliminary research suggests a rise in the number of people dying from the new strain. there is some evidence that the new variant, the variant that was first identified in london and the south—east, may be associated with a higher degree of mortality. the lockdown continues to lower the infection rate — the r number across the uk is now between 0.8 and i. but borisjohnson says the infection rate remains "forbiddingly high" and he will not lift restrictions until the vaccination programme starts to work. also tonight... a record number of people are

vaccinated in the past 2a hours —