since 2016, outside source has followed the brexit story, through the referendum, through the long process to find a withdrawal deal and then a new trade deal. and now brexit�*s a reality, and i want to look if promises have been kept. i'm going to assess three different areas, starting with fishing, which accounts for 0.1% of the uk economy but has always played a big part in this story. to those who support it, brexit is about taking back control. it's an idea that resonated with fishermen and women. we should be the guardians of our own seas, not ministers who we do not know, we haven't voted in, making decisions for us. borisjohnson argued that more prosperity would come with more control. you've got the eu commission sitting, instead of us,

deciding how fish stocks, our uk fish, are going to be parcelled up and divvied up, so you take back control. but did borisjohnson and his government to take back control? well, the brexit trade deal reduces the value of the fish that eu boats can catch in uk waters by 25% across five years. and it's estimated that by 2026, uk boats will have access to an extra £145 million worth of fish every year. that's a shift, but it's definitely not taking back control immediately. and what happens beyond 2026 isn't settled. because of this, not everyone is happy. this is one fisherman before the deal. the french get 84% of the channelled cod and the uk gets 9%, which doesn't strike me as being particularly fair. but brexit hasn't changed the equation on cod. then there's the brexit promise of keeping eu fishing boats out. this is the fisheries minister before the deal.

access to the uk's territorial seas are out of scope for any fisheries framework agreement with the eu. it wasn't out of scope. the uk then signed a deal that allowed some eu boats to fish those waters. fishing news reported this under the headline "boris brexit betrayal". it argued that a "one—off chance to right historic wrongs has been squandered." boris johnson's defence was to look to the long—term. by 2026, the fishing people of this country will have access to all the fish in all the territorial waters of this country. this, though, is highly unlikely to happen because the eu's response would make the move very costly and some supporters of brexit have already seen enough. we were very disappointed with the overall shape of the deal on fisheries. we want to be able to take advantage of being an independent state fully and not essentially one where we feel we've got our hands

tied behind our backs. but the challenge here is connected to where the uk sells its fish, which is neatly summarised by this fish merchant. 95% of what we buy is exported, mainly to the eu. so it's our market. without it, we'd have no business. this issue is about the eu's access to uk waters and the uk's access to eu markets. these two factors are being constantly balanced. brexit hasn't changed that. for his part, borisjohnson is saying that after 2026... there is no theoretical limit beyond those placed by science or conservation on the quantity of our own fish that we can fish in our waters. there's no theoretical limit, but there's a very clear practical one. in reality, the uk government in 2026 is not going to block all eu access to uk waters because the price paid in lost export markets would be too high. it's a compromise, one that's

brought some changes, but so far for uk fishing, brexit is farfrom the transformational moment it was sold as. now, borisjohnson made this promise on brexit and northern ireland... we will respect the peace process and the good friday agreement. cheering and applause but northern ireland's violent past remains clear in the memory — and this month, we've seen reminders of that violence, the most serious for years. but where, if at all, does brexit fit into this? to answer that, we need to understand what was promised and what's happened. from the start, there was one thing on which the eu and the uk agreed. we will, under no circumstances, have checks at or near the border in northern ireland. but that commitment didn't

solve this problem. if we leave the customs union and the single market, there has to be a border. it can be on the island of ireland or it can be in the sea, but you can't not have a border. you can't magic away the need for a border. so, having ruled out a land border, could brexit involve checks in the irish sea between northern ireland and the rest of the uk? well, in 2018, borisjohnson ruled that this out too, while attacking the then—prime minister theresa may's brexit plan. we would be damaging the fabric of the union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between great britain and northern ireland. now, i have to tell you, no british conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement. but that is what brexit has delivered. in 2020, there was this meeting between boris johnson and ireland's prime minister. mrjohnson again was clear — "there will be noted border down the irish sea", he said. "0ver my dead body."

but if that's what was said, this is what's happened — the brexit trade deal comes with a northern ireland protocol. it stipulates that northern ireland, in effect, stays in the eu single market for goods, and so certain goods moving to northern ireland from the rest of the uk are subject to checks. the checks, we were told, wouldn't happen, and that's brought pressure on northern ireland's peace settlement. the good friday agreement was signed in the �*90s. it ended violence between nationalists who want northern ireland to join the republic of ireland and loyalists who want it to stay in the uk. and as part of this, the irish border is completely open. no checks. the eu and the uk agreed, any land border checks risked republican anger. but there was no equivalent calculation for loyalists and checks in the irish sea. and anger has followed. the protocol has betrayed us and has made us feel like foreigners in our own country.

tea and sympathy will not cut the mustard. we've also seen violence in loyalist areas. this was belfast in april. this was connected to upset over the handling of a large republican funeral last year, and that's connected to a broader perception that loyalists are not being treated fairly. for his part, borisjohnson expressed concern at the violence and he's called the checks in the irish sea unnecessary, describing what's happening this way. we're getting the barnacles off the thing, and there have been, and sandpapering it into shape. this is the prime minister arguing to sandpaper into shape the checks that he agreed to. in fact, the uk has now delayed some of these checks and is accused by the eu of breaking international law. all of which highlights that how to be outside the eu and to avoid border checks remains a problem that's hard to sandpaper away. and so, not for the first time, belfast port is centre stage. this, after all, is the city that built the titanic — something its creators thought was unthinkable.

and back in 2018, as borisjohnson warned of getting the wrong type of brexit, he turned to that story. the titanic springs to mind. applause and now is the time to point out the iceberg ahead. now, though, borisjohnson believes with brexit here, the uk can sail on, its peace protected, greater prosperity to come. but for some, his titanic warning still stands. they see a brexit for northern ireland that isn't as promised, where the risk is greater than its creators realise. what's certain is that how brexit works for northern ireland is still being contested. next, we turn to trade, because it was at the heart of what brexiteers promised the uk. i genuinely believe our future will so much brighter if we vote leave and take back

control of our trade. the vote leave website told us that... ..and if that was vote leave, their opponents had predictions too. the economic argument is beyond doubt — leaving the eu is a one—way ticket to a poorer britain. at the time, my colleague alex forsyth outlined other warnings. and this government assessment predicted a vote to leave "would push our economy into recession". well, the uk voted out and brexit is now here, so what did happen? well, house prices didn't fall between 2016 and early 2020 when the pandemic started.

unemployment figures didn't rise for the same period. 0n food prices, the british retail consortium reports... and a recession didn't follow the uk voting out. however, look at this graph from the bank of england in 2018. its calculations found all brexit scenarios producing a smaller uk economy than if brexit hadn't happened. and what about the uk's new trade deals around the world? well, here's the international trade minister tweeting this month... so 68 deals done, but many of them are direct copies of the existing eu deal with those countries, and deals with india and the us are a good way off. then there's the promise of trading freely with the eu. well, here's the european parliament ratifying the new uk—eu deal. this deal does allow tariff—free and quota—free trade in goods.

but there are new taxes to pay — in some cases, additional vat, in some cases, goods aren't tariff—free. and that's having an impact. in some instances, we can't get it to them at all, and in other instances they get charged such a large amount of import duty that they're just not going to do that, we're going to lose our custom. and these are the figures. uk exports and imports with the eu fell when the deal came in. they then recovered but not to where they were. and one of the reasons for that is something vote leave said brexit would reduce — bureaucracy. these forms don't make any sense, they are nonsensical. the messaging from government is very much "we're helping, we're helping, we're helping". the answerfrom me is, "you're not helping at all." we know paperwork has increased. also bear in mind this new trade deal covers goods, not services, and the uk economy is dominated by...services, like banking and insurance, but a deal

for the city of london to access the eu still has to be done. so where does all of this leave us? well, the german commentator wolfgang munchau concludes... he goes on... and if you look at imf growth forecasts for the world's wealthiest countries, the uk is the third—highest. though, bear in mind, allgdp figures are dominated by the pandemic. certainly, though, some of the more catastrophic brexit predictions have not come to pass. nor, though, is there evidence of a brexit boost to trade, but some argue the uk will pay a cost. the ippr think tank argues... it concludes... well, this week, borisjohnson has talked of the trade deal as the final step in a long journey.

it is undoubtedly a political landmark, but really, this is just the start. evidence of that came this week. france is demanding uk fishing guarantees and threatening blocks on financial services. the trade deal may be done, but the negotiating isn't. nor are the ramifications for trade that brexit will bring. good afternoon. the best of the sunshine for saturday was certainly first thing. shower cloud developed through the latter stages of the morning, and some of those showers are quite heavy and slow—moving, so if you're out during the early evening, that's worth bearing in mind. 0vernight, those showers will tend to fade away. and under clearer skies, we do it all again. that means temperatures likely to fall close or just below freezing, the blue tones denoting where we could see a frost first thing in rural areas. a chilly start to sunday, patchy mist easing away to sunny spells and scattered showers. once again, some of these could be heavy with hail and thunder.

all change for bank holiday monday. this area of low pressure expected to come in off the atlantic, some wet and windy weather arrives through northern ireland, gradually moving into southern scotland, north—west england and wales, perhaps staying showery in the far north of scotland, and south—east england should stay dry until the end of the afternoon. top temperatures 7—12 celsius.

this is bbc news. i'm lukwesa burak. the headlines at 7:00pm. an end to care home isolation — residents in england will soon be able to take low—risk trips without having to self—isolate. the difference in my mother is remarkable and it has been commented on. the light is back in her eyes. india records 400,000 coronavirus cases in a single day — as oxygen supplies in one hospital run out. people from a south asian background were at a greater risk of hospitalisation and death in the second wave of covid, according to a new study. five people including a 16 —year—old boy, are arrested on terrorism offences in west yorkshire, wiltshire and north wales. pulling the plug. summerfestivals are being called

off because they can't get covid cancellation insurance.