before parliamentarians in the bundestag, 16 years after becoming german chancellor. she used her last address to parliament to attack her coalition partners ahead of elections later this month, warning of the dangers of a left—wing government in germany. football and scotland have edged closer to next yea r�*s world cup with a vital 1—0 win over austria in vienna. the result leaves scotland second in their qualifying group. our sports correspondent katie gornall was watching. in vienna, scotland were at a crossroads on their world cup journey. this, they said, was a game they couldn't afford to lose. no—one was expecting an easy ride. just a point separated scotland and austria at kick—off, with both teams desperate to land the first blow. chances flowed and lyndon dykes rose. nothing that time, but in this frantic first half, another opportunity for scotland wasn't far behind.

the referee decided che adams had been hauled down, and so dykes stepped up. commentator: it's lyndon dykes! yes! this time, he did beat the keeper. after the break, austria grew increasingly frustrated. the tension rose, the pressure was starting to show. austria outperformed scotland at the euros, but here they looked vulnerable. stephen o'donnell nearly took advantage. but still, there was no margin for error, and thankfully for scotland, they had craig gordon to rely on. that save meant scotland hung on for a vital three points and a win that keeps the dream alive. katie gornall, bbc news. that's it. for more on today's events, newsnight is starting on bbc two. here on one, it's time for the news where you are. have a good night. it was a hot day for many of us, and as expected the temperature exceeded 30 degrees celsius. so, a balmy evening out there. it's going to be a warm night

and a dry one for most apart from the extreme south west of the uk. see these clouds on the satellite picture? this is the sign of the thundery breakdown heading towards us. and actually, through the early hours of tuesday morning, we could have some showers across parts of cornwall, devon, maybe reaching southern wales as well. but the vast majority of us are in for a dry and clear night. and look at the temperatures — 17, no lower than that in cardiff and in plymouth. on that breakdown, then, the thunderstorms roll into south—western areas through the morning and into the afternoon. flashes of lightning here, maybe some showers drifting into the far north west of the uk as well. but for the vast majority, it's once again going to be a hot and sunny day. the showers won't reach eastern areas till thursday.

hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are chief executive of the left—leaning cross—party think tank, demos, polly mackenzie, and michael booker, deputy editor of the sunday express. welcome to you both, thanks very much for being with us. a quick look

at the front pages, which have just come in and the last few minutes. starting with the financial times and the health and social care tax plans announced by the government. the paper reports that borisjohnson will tomorrow challenge rebel tory mps in the commons to vote down his manifesto—breaking £12 billion tax—raising proposals, as he pushes to raise britain's tax burden to its highest level since 1950. the telegraph, picks up on that fact, too, writing that the prime minister wants to raise taxes to their highest level since the second world war to bring in billions of pounds to tackle nhs waiting lists and the social care crisis. staying with those funding plans, the metro reports that the prime minister has admitted to breaking his election pledge not to raise taxes. "make the care worth the cost" — that leads on the front of the daily mail, as it too reports on today's social care funding announcements.

"pm stakes reputation on 12 billion pound health plan — but will it deliver?" is the question posed by the guardian. and finally the sun, and the paper calls it "bojo's biggest gamble", and questions whether the manifesto u—turn will cost votes. so let's start off with polly, and will it cost votes? that's a good question. will it cost votes? that's a good cuestion. ~ �* , ., , will it cost votes? that's a good cuestion. ~ �*, . , ., , question. well, it's a big gamble and it's on _ question. well, it's a big gamble and it's on all— question. well, it's a big gamble and it's on all the _ question. well, it's a big gamble and it's on all the front - question. well, it's a big gamble and it's on all the front pages, . and it's on all the front pages, because this is a massive deal for the government to have done this, to have broken those manifesto pledges — one should question why they made those pledges in the first place whilst also promising to fix social care. but we are where we are, we've had a pandemic. at the moment, i think they are likely to get away with it, actually. there is a sort of mash magic trick about national insurance rather than income tax,

which tells a story to voters that's affection, but it nonetheless feels like an act of solidarity where you pay in and get something out. and people of course are up for funding are nhs, it's our most beloved institution and, during a pandemic, people have seen very visibly the underfunding and chronic problems our social care system. so it's a big gamble, but primarily with the conservative party and its sense of itself and its integrity, its thatcherite legacy — we will look at some of the papers and the right—leaning papers are really struggling with this, many backbenchers will be struggling with this also. �* , backbenchers will be struggling with this also. �*, , ., , this also. let's focus on this, michael, _ this also. let's focus on this, michael. we _ this also. let's focus on this, michael, we just _ this also. let's focus on this, michael, we just on - this also. let's focus on this, michael, we just on the - this also. let's focus on this, - michael, we just on the financial times saying "johnson defies rebels and unveils £12 billion tax rates for health and care." but they are saying the suppose it rebellion by

tory mps who didn't like these proposals kind of melted away, really, and only a handful of them are expected to defy borisjohnson in the commons. are expected to defy boris johnson in the commons.— are expected to defy boris johnson in the commons. yes, on the weekend on saturday. — in the commons. yes, on the weekend on saturday. we _ in the commons. yes, on the weekend on saturday, we were _ in the commons. yes, on the weekend on saturday, we were speaking - in the commons. yes, on the weekend on saturday, we were speaking to - on saturday, we were speaking to some _ on saturday, we were speaking to some tories, and there seemed to be a great _ some tories, and there seemed to be a great sense of anger and rebellion, calling it madness in whatsapp groups and things like that _ whatsapp groups and things like that. but as things have moved on, it seems_ that. but as things have moved on, it seems to — that. but as things have moved on, it seems to have been presented to "cabinet-- — it seems to have been presented to ——cabinet—— as a fairly complete... they— ——cabinet—— as a fairly complete... they didn't — ——cabinet—— as a fairly complete... they didn't really know what was coming, — they didn't really know what was coming, we understand there's a few cabinet _ coming, we understand there's a few cabinet members who brought it up with the _ cabinet members who brought it up with the prime minister, they wereht— with the prime minister, they weren't happy with this. but when you looked at the commons earlier today, _ you looked at the commons earlier today, there wasn't really a sense of a huge — today, there wasn't really a sense of a huge rebellion any more that we had been _ of a huge rebellion any more that we had been led to believe. and i think a lot of— had been led to believe. and i think a lot of them — i don't know, it's a gamble _ a lot of them — i don't know, it's a gamble clearly for boris johnson, this, _ gamble clearly for boris johnson, this, and — gamble clearly for boris johnson, this, and i— gamble clearly for boris johnson, this, and i think it's a gamble that will pay— this, and i think it's a gamble that will pay off— this, and i think it's a gamble that will pay off with the electorate in the short—

will pay off with the electorate in the short term, and with his own partx _ the short term, and with his own party. because what else are they going _ party. because what else are they going to _ party. because what else are they going to do to fix this problem with my keys _ going to do to fix this problem with my keys come up with this bold idea, he's got _ my keys come up with this bold idea, he's got the — my keys come up with this bold idea, he's got the colour of the pandemic dust cover— he's got the colour of the pandemic dust cover of the pandemic, and the rebels _ dust cover of the pandemic, and the rebels seem to have gone quiet. so tomorrow. — rebels seem to have gone quiet. so tomorrow, when we have this vote, i think— tomorrow, when we have this vote, i think it _ tomorrow, when we have this vote, i think it will _ tomorrow, when we have this vote, i think it will squeak through or may io think it will squeak through or may go through— think it will squeak through or may go through all the way. labour don't really— go through all the way. labour don't really know— go through all the way. labour don't really know what they are doing any more _ really know what they are doing any more because keir starmer is no longer— more because keir starmer is no longer in — more because keir starmer is no longer in charge of the party, it's the party— longer in charge of the party, it's the party of the nhs, it seems, at the party of the nhs, it seems, at the moment. so interesting times in the moment. so interesting times in the commons tomorrow, but the rebellion — the commons tomorrow, but the rebellion won't actually happen. potty. _ rebellion won't actually happen. polly, looking at the telegraph, they are putting a historic perspective on this, saying these will be the highest taxes since the second world war, there is a graph that quite vividly shows that. but i suppose that's one side of the coin, the other side is that the government will get credit for tackling an issue that frankly lots

of other governments have duct. well, i don't think it's quite that simple. i think that the telegraph is really angry about this, you know, the comment piece is full of outrage and despair at the conservative party, but that headline that talks about the war i think triggers another frame for us, which is to remind ourselves that we are in a hopefully post pandemic period. we have quite rightly thrown the kitchen sinks worth of money at trying to keep the economy going through the pandemic, funding our health service through this extraordinary period. so actually, again, even before the pandemic, the work we've done it demos shown really people are up for paying more taxes long as it was fair and reach people paid their fair share to

protect our health service. and the pandemic is only sharpened that, and the post crisis thing — again, there a conservative mentality that you get what you paid for, but you also paid for what you get, and having gone through this big expansion, we do have to find a way to get through it —— to pay for it. and the left�*s view is more about the explanatory policy, let'sjust view is more about the explanatory policy, let's just spend a lot of money, debt funded. so i can see how they land this with conservatives, but they'll create pressure for them, a lot of resentment that will perhaps push them into the tax—cutting party again at the next election. who will believe manifesto promises after this? you election. who will believe manifesto promises after this?— election. who will believe manifesto promises after this? you spoke about the comment — promises after this? you spoke about the comment piece, _ promises after this? you spoke about the comment piece, let's _ promises after this? you spoke about the comment piece, let's speak- promises after this? you spoke about| the comment piece, let's speak about the comment piece, let's speak about the as, that's in the telegraph — a pretty scathing, acerbic piece attacking borisjohnson. "we have

just witnessed of the prime minister sound the death knell for conservatives on." "perhaps the most shameful part of it was that boris johnson seem to feel no shame at all." it's a devastating critique. it is, and had a companion piece before _ it is, and had a companion piece before we — it is, and had a companion piece before we got the details of this which _ before we got the details of this which was fairly similar in temperature. but she's usually got the temperature of the party usually quite right. sol the temperature of the party usually quite right. so i think that what she's— quite right. so i think that what she's saying is being felt behind closed _ she's saying is being felt behind closed doors by a lot of died in the rule tories — closed doors by a lot of died in the rule tories. there's no doubt. but i think— rule tories. there's no doubt. but i think that _ rule tories. there's no doubt. but i think that when you look at the wider— think that when you look at the wider electorate, you know, we talk about— wider electorate, you know, we talk about breaking manifesto promises and raising taxes, but the last 18 months — and raising taxes, but the last 18 months of— and raising taxes, but the last 18 months of people have had, they've seen the _ months of people have had, they've seen the problem is within the nhs and, seen the problem is within the nhs and. as— seen the problem is within the nhs and. as it _ seen the problem is within the nhs and, as it says in here, boris did start— and, as it says in here, boris did start talking _ and, as it says in here, boris did start talking about in terms of, will it— start talking about in terms of, will it stop your neighbour getting a hip operation? will it stop

someone's grandmother getting cancer treatment? he was appealing to that and to— treatment? he was appealing to that and to people's feelings like that — which _ and to people's feelings like that — which she's— and to people's feelings like that — which she's not a fan of. sol and to people's feelings like that — which she's not a fan of. so i think the wider— which she's not a fan of. so i think the wider public will give him the benefit _ the wider public will give him the benefit of— the wider public will give him the benefit of the doubt, but there will benefit of the doubt, but there will be huge. _ benefit of the doubt, but there will be huge, huge problems within the conservative party for the next few months _ conservative party for the next few months and years as a result of this _ months and years as a result of this he — months and years as a result of this. he isn't saying there won't be any more _ this. he isn't saying there won't be any more tax rises, as well, that won't _ any more tax rises, as well, that won't go — any more tax rises, as well, that won't go down greatly with tory voters _ won't go down greatly with tory voters or— won't go down greatly with tory voters or the tory party itself. so it is interesting time for the tory party. _ it is interesting time for the tory party. but — it is interesting time for the tory party, but looking at the tory newspapers, yes, the telegraph seems to be furious, but looking at the broader— to be furious, but looking at the broader ones like the express — i know— broader ones like the express — i know we've — broader ones like the express — i know we've given him the benefit of the doubt. — know we've given him the benefit of the doubt, given what's happened, it was and _ the doubt, given what's happened, it was and no _ the doubt, given what's happened, it was and no one's manifesto that there _ was and no one's manifesto that there would be a pandemic — and the daily mail— there would be a pandemic — and the daily mail also appears to be giving him the _ daily mail also appears to be giving him the benefit of the doubt, as welt _

him the benefit of the doubt, as welt the — him the benefit of the doubt, as well. the tory press isn't warming on his— well. the tory press isn't warming on his side — well. the tory press isn't warming on his side but giving him a chance. we wiii— on his side but giving him a chance. we will come to the daily mail in a second, but looking at the daily star, a paper we don't always future on this review, but they have, "you don't break a manifesto pledge for ages then two come along at the same time." that's what this couple waiting at a bus stop appear to be saying to each other, talking about national insurance going up and also the pension triple locked being asked. the introduction to that story says, "pm bozojohnson's pants appear to be on fire." story says, �*pm bozo johnson's pants appear to be on fire."— appear to be on fire." obviously that's the _ appear to be on fire." obviously that's the wry — appear to be on fire." obviously that's the wry sense _ appear to be on fire." obviously that's the wry sense of - appear to be on fire." obviously that's the wry sense of humour| appear to be on fire." obviously - that's the wry sense of humour from the star, and there will be that sense of surprise, it may be disappointment and anger around this. but the caveats to that are, first of all, they don't think much of politicians anyways, so

politicians breaking their promises is a bit here today, gone tomorrow. secondly, breaking your promise to do something that's quite popular and people are in favour of is way less of a deal then breaking a promise for something unpopular. this is pretty much firmly in the former category, it's relatively popular, and i think number ten will have been showing polling info to the sceptical mps over the last few days to persuade them of that. and the third thing, of course, which they've been really pushing is that there's been a pandemic. now the fiscal realities of that are massive, we've spent a lot of money, but social care was going to be a really big expensive deal to fix. and of course, borisjohnson said, when he was appointed pm, that he had the plan to fix it — that was longer for the had the plan to fix it — that was longerfor the pandemic. so it's a bit of a ruse, saying the pandemic is the reason for having to put up taxes to fund the nhs and social

care. i'm old enough to remember