we will have the headlines on the news stories at the top of the news stories at the top of the hour, straight after this programme. parliament is back, which means a politics themed thursday night episode of newscast is back. lovely to be together. chris, have you had any interesting encounters now you have seen people in the real world? yeah, i went to the lobby briefing, which is where reporters are briefed by downing street official spokesmen, in downing street for the first time in yonks. and real—life press conferences.

which means you can kind of heckle of the prime minister? no, asking a supplementary and they can't mute you. i had one person saying you are better looking in real life and another person saying, you are very short. i another person saying, you are very short-— very short. i think you are very short. i think you are very lovely. _ very short. i think you are very lovely, adam. - very short. i think you are very lovely, adam. the i very short. i think you are - very lovely, adam. the beauty of this pod cast as i can be any height you want in this edition of newscast. we are still two metres apart. chris, where are you?- we are still two metres apart. chris, where are you? would you find the key _ chris, where are you? would you find the key so i can _ chris, where are you? would you find the key so i can get - chris, where are you? would you find the key so i can get out - find the key so i can get out of here _

find the key so i can get out of here. ., . . find the key so i can get out ofhere. , of here. pass him some snacks under the _ of here. pass him some snacks under the door. _ of here. pass him some snacks under the door. and _ of here. pass him some snacks under the door. and some - of here. pass him some snacks i under the door. and some people have not returned _ under the door. and some people have not returned back— under the door. and some people have not returned back to - under the door. and some people have not returned back to their. have not returned back to their offices and workplaces because we have roped in former conservative mp nick bowles who is joining us from conservative mp nick bowles who isjoining us from ibiza. hi. i am 'ust isjoining us from ibiza. hi. i am just social _ isjoining us from ibiza. hi. i am just social distancing. i isjoining us from ibiza. hi. i. am just social distancing. that is all— am just social distancing. that is all i — am just social distancing. that is all i am _ am just social distancing. that is all i am doing. _ am just social distancing. that is all i am doing. i— am just social distancing. that is all i am doing.— is all i am doing. i love your characters _ is all i am doing. i love your characters. it's _ is all i am doing. i love your characters. it's rather - is all i am doing. i love your characters. it's rather fine. l any chance of us seeing a minor celebrity wandering past with a cocktail? possibly. and possibly also some naked people on the balcony behindl us, so we had better get this recorded. i i was going to say thank you very much, because you have got viewers to stay with us who might not otherwise have been planning on it! there are two good reasons for having nick with us this week. one, because he is a very well

informed former conservative who has been doing things didn't interesting things in the last week, but also because he has done some deep thinking about social care. and came up with the idea of having a dedicated social care levy to raise revenue so you could revolutionise how people experienced the care system, which is what the government announced this week, a health and social care levy that will sit on top of national insurance, and that will help put more money into the system and there will now be a cap on individuals' lifetime care costs in england and changes to the means test. nick, you must be pleased because your idea that you proposed three or four years ago is now going to happen, probably. i am somewhat astonished. i confess, i was on the beach and i got a text from one - of sajid javid's former special advisers saying, i am sure i the first time i heard - about the dedicated health and social care levy was from you, am i imagining it? - and i had no idea what she was| on about, and then she told me the government had justj

announced it as a policy. so i have not been involved in the recent gestation, - but it is true that i came| together with liz kendall from the labour party. and norman lamb from the liberal democrats in 2018 and proposed | something almost identical to what the government. has suggested. so we slightly signed up to it with a heavy heart, j but with the certainty. that it was the only way we were going to get. this problem resolved. talking of a heavy heart, borisjohnson has broken a manifesto commitment. manifesto promises used to be solemn vows round these parts. that time passed some time ago, but shall we listen to how he broke that promise? no conservative government, . mr speaker, ever wants to raise taxes and i will be honest with the house, i accept. that this breaks a manifesto commitment, which is not l something i do lightly.

but a global pandemic was in no one's manifesto, mr speaker. i nick, you said people would pay more taxes if they knew it was definitely going to social care. but in this case, most of the money will go to the nhs to clear up the treatment backlog caused by covid, and that is something that has been concerning a lot of people at westminster this week. does it concern you in ibiza? not so much, because funnily enough, i think that - makes it easier to sell. when i say people will acceptj paying a higher tax and social care, i meant forthe nhs and social care. _ we all know the nhs has. a status as a public service in people's mind differentl to anything else and social care, rightly, needs. to be viewed alongside that is another thing -

that needs more money. so i think the combination i of the two is a powerful way of getting what is otherwise - an unpalatable change through, because everybody can see. that the nhs has been faced with something _ unprecedented and now has an unprecedented backlog. it needs more money. in the short to medium term to deal with that, i and we can also see that in the medium to long term, . there is this expanding problem with social care needs. so that is what makes itj unbeatable as a political proposal, and for all- that the labour opposition voted against it and is- claiming they were come up with some wealth tax, - the only question that really matters is, will they get ridj of it if they get into power? and of course they won't. nick, you talked about it

being almost unbeatable, but he said it wasn't perfect. what are its strengths and weaknesses in its current incarnation? well, something is worth pointing out which is that liz kendall, who showed the greatest lytic code . signing up to this in 2018, . she knew full well that there was political pain to come i if it ever went anywhere —— she showed the greatest political courage in - signing up to this. she knew you had to be - extending national insurance payments to the earnings of pensioners, so those l increasingly many pensioners . who work after retirement age, they currently don't - pay national insurance, and we knew they would have to pay this _ secondly, we need to find a way of getting other sources - of income that wealthier - pensioners have, and that again is secured through the levy being charged on dividendl income as well.

that just about sweetens i the pill enough — it doesn't, but nobody is pretending that it is a perfectly- progressive picture. one would want to be taking - more from those people who have benefited from house price gains and everything else. | if you added those i elements, that might be progressive enough. how could you recoup a bit of extra money from the value of people's homes? well, what one learnsl after a long time trying and often failing in politics with policy ideas is- that the thin end of the wedge is the most powerful force - in human life. and this is the thin end of the wedge. | any future government will now be able to build on this. - some of them will add an extra higher rate for higher earners. i other governments might add a higher rate for people - over the age of 40.

there are all sorts of ways you can deal with this. - also, don't forget that a huge part of the cost of social carel is still going to be met from general taxation, and it is always open - for a government to make the general taxation- system more progressive, for instance by introducing a wealth tax. _ but you needed something that people understood. i and when you talk to - constituents, lots of people who come to your surgery still say, i paid— all my life and then - i expect these services. and this idea of the stamp is something different - from normal taxation. is still a powerful one, and i think this new levy that will appear in people's - payslips will re—establish - the idea that there are some things that you are paying - for directly through your wage packet, and i think that has a lot of basic support - in people's minds, - that they work in order to secure some security from the state. -

but the flip side of that for lots of people in your party, nick, is that it entrenches the sort of special status of the nhs and somehow puts it kind of beyond reproach. you can't say anything mean about it, you can't have a proper debate about it and it isjust going to keep gobbling up. it is now more than 40% of national income. and for people in your party who traditionally like to think of themselves as low tax conservatives, that is something that is quite uncomfortable. it is 40% of government spending. sorry! what do you make of that? also, you knew boris johnson well. you then rather changed your opinion of him, you are no fan, it is fair to say. why do you think he has done this? because he is a shameless

opportunisl _ i think it is the most classic bit of boris opportunism . and i take my hat off to him. we are very different people with very different views, . and he is vastly more - successful than i have been. but i have to take my hat off to him on this one. i it is like disraeli. he saw an opportunity - and he hasjust grabbed it. i promise you, he never thought about a hypothecated _ tax in his life before. he probably thought - it was some battle in greece. but now he has done it and it will be a significant move. i the point about the tory party being uncomfortable — - well, that is music to my ears. i spent most of my time in the tory party trying i to make tories uncomfortable and a lot of my time - since leaving it trying to make . them even more uncomfortable. i think what boris has seen is that it is an.

opposable for his party. they all looked like they had - swallowed a wasp when they were trooping through the lobbies, . but they knew there was no way they could come out against it, because the nhs and covid - and the catch—up and the fact that so many of their - constituents are facing these terrible social care bills- made it unopposable. and boris, frankly, as i say, he is an opportunist. - he wants to win and he wants . to be on top and he wants to be popular and he sees this as a great way of- doing those things. i wonder how you reflect more broadly on the conservative party in the round where it is now, its outlook and priorities. it is a party you fell out of love with, led by a man who you were close to and also fell out of love with. yeah. well, i try not to think| about it too much as it would drive me mad. it is a confusing picture - because on economic policy and public provision, - the party under boris johnson

has moved quite drasticallyl in the direction i would have wanted to take it. my reservations about some of| the austerity measures we took when i was in government in the coalition, also - some of the positionsj taken by theresa may and the instinct, as you put it, of the entire party, - which is to resist commitments by the state to extend the - support into people's lives. all of that, i really love. and i always knew boris was going to do that. because he has always loved that stuff too. _ the trouble is, what i don't like is the culture wars - and the english nationalism and the sort of lack - of principle and lack - of respect for institutions and the riding roughshod. that is why i can't be part of it, but who cares - whether i am part of it or not? the question is, - is this a good move?

and the truth is, it is . a good and brave move. the person i really think- we mustn't forget for bravery, because she is having a tough time through this, _ is liz kendall, who came out- as a labour mp of some standing and put her name to this - and frankly, that is what has made this so powerful, - the fact that you were able to get large numbers of mps from all parties saying - that this needed to happenl and it might not be perfect, but it was a step forward. that is what has unlocked this| a few years later as something that borisjohnson could do. i'm sure liz kendall will be sat at her laptop with a glass of wine because that is what she did when she was on this programme. borisjohnson has had the benefit of, at least in this moment, this new giving the labour party into this position where they find themselves voting against more money going to the health service because they don't

like the principle of how this is to be paid for. but, you know, it is a nifty bit of politicking. he will never hear the end of that. l there is somebody naked behind you! chuckles i couldn't resist. i also heard some ice cubes when you were talking. what are you having? i really cannot stand campari. i made a peach gin and tonic which i thought. was tropical enough. sounds lovely. thanks very much for your pearls of wisdom. take care. interesting when you see someone who has been out of front line politics for a while but can become a bit of a strategist, has a little bit still in the game, knows the policies. he covered that story in 2018.

nick, norman lamb, and liz kendall, we did an interview with all three of them. it's the only time i've done an interview with three people at the same time. they explained how they thought it would give force to this idea, the fact they would come together, talked about that idea of visibility, and if people saw it on their payslip they would understand it and would be up for paying more. here we are, three years later, even though we didn't read out a quote from borisjohnson. an all—consuming ego and utterly without conscious, but there we go. i said we would have a look at this week's events within a more scientific way. we are going to do that because we have a pollster in the cupboard. it is ben from ipsos mori poll. good evening. have you been looking at the social care stuff this week in terms of how it has gone down with the public? what you can see is that. before this was announced, as we heard, the number onel thing when you ask the british

public what should have more . money spent on it was the nhs. social care was there as well. two out of three people saying they supported l increasing, would pay more tax and national insurance, - to pay for it. since it has come out there has been a mixed reaction. - some of that is because the i labour party voted against it. if you are a die—hard labour. voter, and remember whoever leads the labour party - the labour party is guaranteed to get three out of ten voters voting for it, i some people are therefore| negative because it is done by the conservatives. overall, to be honest, i the public wanted more money spent on the nhs. they want more money. spent on public services. they've accepted taxes will have to go up. - generally, a hypothecated tax, | even though national insurance is a bit of a con because l the hypothecation doesn't really happen, but we will forget that for now, - national insurance is much more attractive to most people, -

including conservative voters, than in income tax rise. - i think borisjohnson is probably going - to get away with it. he already had a ten - percentage lead in the polls. we will see if that changes. generally people have| said for years we need to spend money on things, particularly these - things, and now we are. there was 1% more support if it was branded _ there was 1% more support if it was branded for— there was 1% more support if it was branded for the _ there was 1% more support if it was branded for the nhs- there was 1% more support if it was branded for the nhs but. there was 1% more support if it. was branded for the nhs but not for social— was branded for the nhs but not for social care. _ was branded for the nhs but not for social care. people _ was branded for the nhs but not for social care. people know- for social care. people know that — for social care. people know that there _ for social care. people know that there is _ for social care. people know that there is a _ for social care. people know that there is a problem - for social care. people know that there is a problem with| that there is a problem with social— that there is a problem with social care _ that there is a problem with social care and _ that there is a problem with social care and this - that there is a problem with social care and this is, - that there is a problem with social care and this is, as i social care and this is, as we've _ social care and this is, as we've heard, _

social care and this is, as we've heard, this- social care and this is, as we've heard, this is- social care and this is, as| we've heard, this is about social care and this is, as - we've heard, this is about when people — we've heard, this is about when people visualise _ we've heard, this is about when people visualise this, _ we've heard, this is about when people visualise this, it's - people visualise this, it's about— people visualise this, it's about their— people visualise this, it's about their relatives - people visualise this, it's about their relatives andl people visualise this, it's - about their relatives and their grandma _ about their relatives and their grandma and _ about their relatives and their grandma and ultimately- about their relatives and their grandma and ultimately for. grandma and ultimately for pe0ple _ grandma and ultimately for pe0ple my— grandma and ultimately for pe0ple my age. _ grandma and ultimately for people my age, i'm - grandma and ultimately for people my age, i'm 56, - grandma and ultimately for people my age, i'm 56, wej grandma and ultimately for- people my age, i'm 56, we might actually— people my age, i'm 56, we might actually think— people my age, i'm 56, we might actually think about _ people my age, i'm 56, we might actually think about how - people my age, i'm 56, we might actually think about how this - actually think about how this will affect— actually think about how this will affect some _ actually think about how this will affect some of _ actually think about how this will affect some of us - actually think about how this will affect some of us as - actually think about how this i will affect some of us as well. there — will affect some of us as well. there is— will affect some of us as well. there is a _ will affect some of us as well. there is a large _ will affect some of us as well. there is a large lump- will affect some of us as well. there is a large lump of- will affect some of us as well. i there is a large lump of people moving — there is a large lump of people moving through _ there is a large lump of people moving through the _ moving through the population born— moving through the population born between— moving through the population born between 45 _ moving through the population born between 45 and - moving through the population born between 45 and 65. - moving through the population born between 45 and 65. so i moving through the population born between 45 and 65. so it| born between 45 and 65. so it doesn't — born between 45 and 65. so it doesn't seem _ born between 45 and 65. so it doesn't seem to _ born between 45 and 65. so it doesn't seem to matter- doesn't seem to matter which way it— doesn't seem to matter which way it is— doesn't seem to matter which way it is done _ doesn't seem to matter which way it is done but— doesn't seem to matter which way it is done but the - way it is done but the hypothecation- way it is done but the hypothecation aspect| way it is done but the l hypothecation aspect is way it is done but the - hypothecation aspect is the thing — hypothecation aspect is the thing that— hypothecation aspect is the thing that is— hypothecation aspect is the thing that is the _ hypothecation aspect is the thing that is the slam - hypothecation aspect is the thing that is the slam dunk| hypothecation aspect is the - thing that is the slam dunk and ithink— thing that is the slam dunk and ithink labour— thing that is the slam dunk and i think labour made _ thing that is the slam dunk and i think labour made a - thing that is the slam dunk and i think labour made a mistake i i think labour made a mistake in opposing _ i think labour made a mistake in opposing it— i think labour made a mistake in opposing it despite - i think labour made a mistake in opposing it despite the fact| in opposing it despite the fact that it — in opposing it despite the fact that it does _ in opposing it despite the fact that it does mean _ in opposing it despite the fact that it does mean that - in opposing it despite the fact that it does mean that you . in opposing it despite the fact l that it does mean that you have younger— that it does mean that you have younger working _ that it does mean that you have younger working people - that it does mean that you have younger working people payingl younger working people paying and an— younger working people paying and an elderly— younger working people paying and an elderly person - younger working people paying and an elderly person with - younger working people paying and an elderly person with lotsj and an elderly person with lots of housing _ and an elderly person with lots of housing they _ and an elderly person with lots of housing they rent _ and an elderly person with lots of housing they rent out, - and an elderly person with lots of housing they rent out, not l of housing they rent out, not contributing. _ of housing they rent out, not contributing, but _ of housing they rent out, not contributing, but overall, - contributing, but overall, broadly, _ contributing, but overall, broadly, it's— contributing, but overall, broadly, it's broadly- broadly, it's broadly progressive - broadly, it's broadly progressive and - broadly, it's broadly progressive and the| broadly, it's broadly- progressive and the more you earn: — progressive and the more you earn, you _ progressive and the more you earn. you will— progressive and the more you earn, you will pay— progressive and the more you earn, you will pay more. - progressive and the more you earn, you will pay more. findl earn, you will pay more. and here is keir— earn, you will pay more. and here is keir starmer - earn, you will pay more. here is keir starmer making what you just called a mistake.

working people will pay higher tax. those in need will lose their homes to pay for care, and he can't even say if the nhs backlog will be cleared. well, he gesticulate, but they are all breaking their manifesto promises and putting up taxes on their working constituents for this? you were suggesting that borisjohnson put himself in the middle of the political road not leaving much space for sir keir starmer. is there any evidence in the polls relating to this news with regards to peoples reaction to where labour are? no signs that labour have suddenly had . a fillip from this. the challenge for sir keir starmer is that his own l personal political gravity- seems to keep tugging at him. his latest ratings in the poll we just put out today - are the lowest they've been yet, even amongst - labour supporters. he has been dealt a tough set of cards, with the pandemic, i etc, but political gravity is there _

only in recent decades only one person has ever come back- and become prime minister| from where sir keir starmer and that's david cameron, - but he had a helpful change of leader on the opposite benches. how do his figures compare with, say, jeremy corbyn's? there has been a bizarre and extraordinary stressful 18 months or so and political trauma on both sides. how would you analyse the last landscape? looking at the bigger picture, given the government - has a large majority. scotland remains at this terra incognito for a loti of english political parties, and especially for labour. i

the fact scotland has gone and therefore labour... . and i see no signs of- taking —— i see no labour taking back scotland. labourjust used to weigh i the votes rather than count them back in the day. because of that, they'd have to break england, j and there are signs that. in southern england labour overall, with the sort . of majority the pm has, and the size of the swing - labour need, and the relative unpopularity of their leader, and perceived competence l on things like the economy. we haven't talked about - rishi sunak so far, the most popular person in british - politics, still has more people who say they like him then dislike him in politics. - anybody has more people who like then then - dislike them is amazing. admittedly it is starting l to wear off with furlough. the next election is for. the conservatives to lose. lots for us to talk about in the next few weeks. it'll be a very busy autumn. tough budget coming.

spending review. and all of the spending on health gives the impression rishi sunak�*s cheque book is enormous, but that largesse begins and ends at the department of health. not much money for prisons. not much money floating around. absolutely. the other departments are suffering. - things like local government. you can cut things, i you cut them, and at some point it flips. and they cut you! and then you have a problem. that was an amazing tour of what is happening. shame i cannot see you guys, but next time. . one thing that didn't happen which everybody was preparing for was a reshuffle of the cabinet. yes, and it might still happen next week allegedly. all week i've been thinking, cynical as i am, was this being dangled in front of ministers to keep them in line for something like breaking a manifesto

promise, and might they feel like they were more in line if they thought about losing theirjob. call me a cynic. but somebody this morning said the reshuffle is all prepared and has been prepared and is sitting waiting to go and has been for some time and it may yet happen next week. but who knows? simon hart, he was sharing yes prime minister clips, a scene about a nervous minister waiting by the phone. one of his colleagues replied and said, i'm going to up on a phone where a number doesn't show upjust to speak to you. because the public were deprived of the spectacle of the reshuffle people hoped for, we will carry one out right now on this episode. me and laura sit in one studio and have done for over a year now. fought tonight, we are going

to stage a reshuffle. i'm cumming! adam has put on his facemask. he has picked up one of his phones. leaving the studio. chris is on the studio. he's put his mask on, navy with white i believe. he is now on the loose in the bbc westminster newsroom studio. adam fleming is somewhere, i don't know where, in the bbc westminster building. he has just sat down and take in his mask off, and here is chris! thank goodness, i was nearly out of words for the first time in my life. hello! how nice to see you. that must be me getting a promotion in this reshuffle. i've just thrown the key in the thames. after that sophisticated ending to our television programme and podcast, i think that is certainly enough from me, don't know about you two?

we will call it a day, i think. goodbye. hello there. the past 24 hours have seen the downpours arrive and the heat ebb away. but with fewer showers yesterday across some eastern parts of england, we saw temperatures getting up to 27 degrees in suffolk, very warm for this time of the year. it was 26 in cromer, 25 in the east midlands. charterhall, though, in the scottish borders was 29 degrees on wednesday. thursday was 10 degrees cooler, as the rain arrived. and earlier in the night, we had some torrential thundery downpours in northern england. that led to some flash flooding in some areas. but the worst is now over, the showers are heading their

way northwards into scotland. many places will start dry, i think, on friday morning. as you can see, its warm. it's also muggy, hence some mist and fog around following those downpours in the north. that will lift, though, with still a lot of cloud around during friday. and as you can see, those showers are going to develop more widely, turning heavy and possibly thundery. maybe fewer showers for wales and the southwest, but more showers than we saw on thursday for eastern parts of england. but despite that, temperatures still could reach 23 or 24 degrees. elsewhere, it's going to be nearer 20 or 21 celsius — still pretty good, though, for this time of year. now, the fifth test match should be starting at old trafford on friday. there may well be some heavy showers around, mind you. the weekend does look drier, but it will be cooler as well. now, low pressure has been moving across the uk. that's brought the drop in temperature with those heavy, thundery showers, but the low is moving away towards scandinavia this weekend, so things will turn drier, but it does mean we'll introduce more of a northwesterly breeze. and that will bring with it some cooler air

from the north as well. we've still got some wet weather around on saturday across northern most parts of scotland. the rain could be quite heavy here, actually. but elsewhere, there are fewer showers, lighter showers, many places will be dry. some sunshine coming through now and again and some quite light winds as well. but temperatures are dropping away in scotland and northern ireland in that cooler air, so 17 degrees. still quite warm, though, across england and wales, especially towards the southeast. now, on sunday, it's dry from northern scotland, there are very few showers again on sunday, probably a fair bit of cloud. got to keep an eye on this developing rain towards the southwest, perhaps, but the cooler air will be pushing down across more of the country, with a high on sunday in the southeast of 21 celsius.

welcome to bbc news, i'm tim willcox. our top stories. "nojab, nojob" — the vaccine mandate for 100 million us workers among new measures as president biden toughens his stance against those who haven't had the jab. our patience is wearing thin, and refusal has consequences, so please do the right thing. the us federal government launches a legal attack on a new abortion law in texas. it says the state's near—total ban is unconstitutional. and washington praises the taliban for being businesslike and flexible as the first civilian airlift takes place from afghanistan since us troops withdrew.