hello, i hello, lam hello, i am live with you from berlin on bbc world news today as germany votes in its general election. the polls are suggesting there will not be an outright winner making every vote to vitalise the parties prepared to haggle over who may be able to form a coalition government. it can hang on decisions made by this man, olaf scholz who has led the social democrats to the top of the polls and we will see fit transfers into votes but in the last few days the polls have been tightening with the leading conservative candidate closing the 93p- conservative candidate closing the gap. whoever wins is going to face the challenge of following on from 16 years of angela merkel�*s leadership so will we see continuity

or more of a change for europe's most powerful economy? our correspondence are at the headquarters of the 3—mac parties with the best talks of providing the next chancellor. and i will be live with you here in berlin as we await the 1st exit polls when the polls close on half an hour and we will analyse all the data coming in as we try and understand the choices germans have made about their future. a warm welcome to berlin on a glorious september afternoon and welcome to this bbc news special on the german election. we are into the last 30 minutes of voting here in germany and as of the polls close,

moments later we get the 1st exit polls, ist signs of the directions germans have chosen for their country as they move on without angela merkel as their leader. and it promises to be packed of political drama. social democrats leaving in the polls in recent weeks but there are gap over angela merkel�*s cdu party has narrowed in recent days, it looks like it might get very tight indeed and however the twomack big parties do they will not be able to govern alone so will be watching closely for the greens, free market liberal, the far right afd and the far left. their fortunes will all impact what kind of german government will emerge. we begin with this update from europe correspondence. a gruelling test of endurance with sometimes no end in sight. it is the day of the berlin marathon.

thousands have been pounding the streets of the capital and across the country, millions have been casting their vote, including party leaders. plummeting support for the early favourite conservative leader armin laschet appears to have slowed in recent days. could his sprint finish make him chancellor? translation: it is an exciting day and because it is such a tight race, i every vote counts. today is for voters. social democrat olaf scholz is hoping he can top the podium. the current finance minister is hoping to cash in on being angela merkel�*s deputy in the last coalition government, painting himself as a reassuring predecessor. translation: i hope many germans will vote and make possible - what we have seen in the polls — a very good result for the sdp and the opportunity to for me to become chancellor. thank you very much. and to what extent will germany go green in 2021?

annalena baerbock hopes a long way. the green candidate is counting on younger voters in particular, who have been vocal in demanding more action on climate change. climate change has been a key issue, especially because of the devastating floods germany suffered this summer. 190 died after violent storms. many communities were devastated and will have to be rebuilt. recovering from the covid pandemic will also be in mind as germany prepares for a digitalfuture. there have been long queues here at the heart of berlin today. as we reach the end of this unpredictable race. one thing is sure, though — germany will get another coalition government and that is how it works around here. but getting the new coalition into place, that is not always straightforward. but it could take weeks or months for a new government to be formed.

angela merkel has not given her last orders yet. let's speak to bbc correspondence at the headquarters of the three biggest parties if you look at the polls. our europe editor katya adler is with the social democrats, are barrelling correspondences with the cdu, angela merkel�*s party and damien mcguinness with the greens. it has been a remarkable campaign for the spd, down on the 3rd of a couple of months ago and now setting top. what have you made of the pitch they are making to voters? we top. what have you made of the pitch they are making to voters?— they are making to voters? we know that germany _ they are making to voters? we know that germany is _ they are making to voters? we know that germany is a _ they are making to voters? we know that germany is a country _ they are making to voters? we know that germany is a country hungry - they are making to voters? we know that germany is a country hungry fori that germany is a country hungry for stability so even though it may not be obvious from the outset, the fact that a social democrat would put himself as the continuity democrat following the conservative angela merkel, that has exactly been the

pitch of olaf scholz and it seems to have been a very successful i. don't forget he is currently deputy chancellor in germany, the country's finance minister and especially during the covid crisis he was seen as a safe pair of hands. he has been calling for change but economically careful change. he would accept that but only absolutely if necessary. he does seem like a safe person, and we have even seen him in recent weeks imitating phrases angela merkel has used or hand gestures, so he is hoping that the love for angela merkel, although reliant on angela merkel, although reliant on angela merkel all these years, will feed into him winning a victory today. it is you have said, this is not the end. this is stagei is you have said, this is not the end. this is stage i of the election itself and after that the coalition building. i itself and after that the coalition buildin: . ., itself and after that the coalition buildinu. ., , itself and after that the coalition buildinu. ~ , ., ,., ., , building. i think it is reasonable to say none _ building. i think it is reasonable to say none of— building. i think it is reasonable to say none of these _ building. i think it is reasonable to say none of these parties - building. i think it is reasonable i to say none of these parties will reach 50% on their own, so when you

speak to people within the social democrats, what is their best case scenario for a coalition? the democrats, what is their best case scenario for a coalition?— scenario for a coalition? the social democrats — scenario for a coalition? the social democrats would _ scenario for a coalition? the social democrats would really _ scenario for a coalition? the social democrats would really like - scenario for a coalition? the social democrats would really like to - scenario for a coalition? the social. democrats would really like to make a government with the green party, those 2 parties together have a reform programme. they feel they could absolutely work together. we have to look at the mathematics and what is very possible is that you could see the biggest twomack parties, the cdu and its sister csu party, with the social democrats is enough to govern together. that is what germany have seen in the last couple of governments but voters say we really do not want that. so the social democrats will look to the greens and probably another coalition partner the liberals and thatis coalition partner the liberals and that is where it can get complicated. parties will say, i want this and that and the greens and liberals would both like to be germany's next finance minister and thatis germany's next finance minister and that is why we cannotjump to conclusions tonight, even if the

social democrats are the biggest party in germany. it does not mean olaf scholz is definitely the next chancellor if he can't form a government and he would have to hand that over to the conservative cdu party to try. so there could be weeks or months of haggling ahead. if we step back from just looking at this through the eyes of germans, why is this election outcome is so important notjust for germany but to the whole of the eu? it is important — to the whole of the eu? it is important for _ to the whole of the eu? it is important for the _ to the whole of the eu? it is important for the eu - to the whole of the eu? it is important for the eu but - to the whole of the eu? it 3 important for the eu but washington is also watching closely, and beijing. half of europe's trade with china comes through germany. germany is such an influential nation in brussels at the eu ho, very few reforms will be possible without the nod from berlin. they also have close ties with the united states, angela merkel really cemented that under barack obama. it also wants to

work with the uk. that means this election is watched as closely outside germany as inside, and the impact of what the next government year looks like we'll be felt definitely outside germany's national borders. that said, we are looking at change but i think with a small c. the german people are hungry for stability, none of the parties are saying they want to leave the eu or nato, all our pro— eu. so it is different flavours and foreign policy, and attitudes towards finance. so as i say, it is not that there will be dramatic overnight change, but the flavour of change will definitely be felt in brussels and beyond. just change will definitely be felt in brussels and beyond. just before we no across brussels and beyond. just before we go across to — brussels and beyond. just before we go across to the _ brussels and beyond. just before we go across to the cdu, _ brussels and beyond. just before we go across to the cdu, i _ brussels and beyond. just before we go across to the cdu, i wonder - brussels and beyond. just before we go across to the cdu, i wonder whatj go across to the cdu, i wonder what the atmosphere is like there at the moment as we wait for this exit poll? moment as we wait for this exit oll? ., ., , moment as we wait for this exit

oll? ., .,, . ., , poll? covid has changed everything and that includes _ poll? covid has changed everything and that includes elections - poll? covid has changed everything and that includes elections so - and that includes elections so normally when we go to campaign headquarters there is a feverish atmosphere with everyone milling around, the party in the press, but because of covid everyone is more spaced out. there is definitely a feeling of expectation and hope here. they thought they were political toast in the selection not long ago and now very much hoping to emerge as the biggest party tonight. so they have already got a drum kit ready, they are hoping to be partying tonight. taste ready, they are hoping to be partying tonight-— ready, they are hoping to be partying tonight. ready, they are hoping to be -a in: toniaht. ~ , partying tonight. we will see if the drum kit gets _ partying tonight. we will see if the drum kit gets used. _ partying tonight. we will see if the drum kit gets used. for _ partying tonight. we will see if the drum kit gets used. for the - partying tonight. we will see if the i drum kit gets used. for the moment, thank you very much indeed. she is with the social democrats, on the centre—left of the german political spectrum. let's move across to the centre right on the cdu, the party angela merkel has represented all these years but not standing in the selection. it is about finding a new leader, jenny hill, a berlin

correspondent. they have had to digest a difficult campaign? thea;r digest a difficult campaign? they have indeed. _ digest a difficult campaign? they have indeed, and _ digest a difficult campaign? they have indeed, and i— digest a difficult campaign? they have indeed, and i think there is a rather_ have indeed, and i think there is a rather downbeat mood. they are nervous — rather downbeat mood. they are nervous because even though armin laschet _ nervous because even though armin laschet has — nervous because even though armin laschet has narrowed the gap in the last few _ laschet has narrowed the gap in the last few days, this party is still on course _ last few days, this party is still on course for the worst election result_ on course for the worst election result in— on course for the worst election result in its— on course for the worst election result in its history. this is not the way— result in its history. this is not the way angela merkel wanted her era to come _ the way angela merkel wanted her era to come to _ the way angela merkel wanted her era to come to a close. they are going to come to a close. they are going to he _ to come to a close. they are going to be watching for those exit polls extremely nervously. as i say, i rather _ extremely nervously. as i say, i rather downbeat atmosphere because of coronavirus, far fewer people than _ of coronavirus, far fewer people than there — of coronavirus, far fewer people than there would have been in recent days _ than there would have been in recent days my— than there would have been in recent days. my understanding is angela merkel_ days. my understanding is angela merkel may still be in the building for talks— merkel may still be in the building for talks behind the scenes. in the last week— for talks behind the scenes. in the last week she has had to rethink her vow to _ last week she has had to rethink her vow to stay— last week she has had to rethink her vow to stay out of the election campaign _ vow to stay out of the election campaign in orderto vow to stay out of the election campaign in order to appear several

times— campaign in order to appear several times at— campaign in order to appear several times at the sight of armin laschet, the party— times at the sight of armin laschet, the party candidate, to try to prop them _ the party candidate, to try to prop them up _ the party candidate, to try to prop them up and the clawback some of those _ them up and the clawback some of those points in the opinion polls. it appears — those points in the opinion polls. it appears to have worked but my goodness — it appears to have worked but my goodness this is looking like such a ti-ht goodness this is looking like such a tight race _ goodness this is looking like such a tight race and it is not where the cdu wanted to be expected to be. perhaps _ cdu wanted to be expected to be. perhaps there was a hint of complacency and this party had a real struggle settling on its candidate for the election. that probably— candidate for the election. that probably has not helped, an undignified scramble with the party split into _ undignified scramble with the party split into various camps over who they thought would best represent they thought would best represent the cdu _ they thought would best represent the cdu into the selection as the potential— the cdu into the selection as the potential successor. i think it didn't— potential successor. i think it didn't go— potential successor. i think it didn't go down well with the voters and may— didn't go down well with the voters and may have differentiated the social— and may have differentiated the social democrats, who actually settled — social democrats, who actually settled on olaf scholz fairly quickly _ settled on olaf scholz fairly quickly. we will have to see what happens — quickly. we will have to see what happens with the exit polls but a nervous — happens with the exit polls but a nervous wait here at the cdu headquarters. for nervous wait here at the cdu headquarters.— nervous wait here at the cdu headquarters. nervous wait here at the cdu headruarters. ., , .,, , _, headquarters. for people 'ust coming to the selection * headquarters. for people 'ust coming to the selection forh headquarters. for people 'ust coming to the selection for the _ headquarters. for people just coming to the selection for the 1st _ headquarters. for people just coming to the selection for the 1st time, -

to the selection for the 1st time, what is the pitch from the cdu? what is their message to voters? angela merkel is going but stick with us because... merkel is going but stick with us because- - -_ merkel is going but stick with us because... ~ ., ., ., because... what are their reasons? because we — because... what are their reasons? because we represent _ because... what are their reasons? because we represent more - because. .. what are their reasons? because we represent more of- because... what are their reasons? because we represent more of thel because we represent more of the same _ because we represent more of the same we — because we represent more of the same. we have made germany a stable and secure _ same. we have made germany a stable and secure country and will continue to do— and secure country and will continue to do that _ and secure country and will continue to do that. back a few months at the beginning _ to do that. back a few months at the beginning of this election campaign, someone _ beginning of this election campaign, someone inside the party said we don't _ someone inside the party said we don't have — someone inside the party said we don't have a candidate yet but we are printing the posters and getting them _ are printing the posters and getting them ready and we will insert the face of— them ready and we will insert the face of the — them ready and we will insert the face of the candidate when the time comes _ face of the candidate when the time comes i_ face of the candidate when the time comes. i think the cdu perhaps felt they had _ comes. i think the cdu perhaps felt they had what it took to win this election— they had what it took to win this election because under angela markel of the _ election because under angela markel of the country has done well and come _ of the country has done well and come through a number of crises. i think— come through a number of crises. i think they— come through a number of crises. i think they thought that would weather them through this election. that has— weather them through this election. that has not been the case and that is why— that has not been the case and that is why we _ that has not been the case and that is why we are in this position tonight— is why we are in this position tonight where they are looking extremely nervously at those polls. we are _ extremely nervously at those polls. we are hearing from cat year that the spd has a drum kit, how are the

cdu setting up? i the spd has a drum kit, how are the cdu setting op?— cdu setting up? i have not seen a band et. cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet- i _ cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet. i have _ cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet. i have seen _ cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet. i have seen a _ cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet. i have seen a couple - cdu setting up? i have not seen a band yet. i have seen a couple of| band yet. i have seen a couple of bottles _ band yet. i have seen a couple of bottles of — band yet. i have seen a couple of bottles of white wine but that is about _ bottles of white wine but that is about it — bottles of white wine but that is about it right now. we bottles of white wine but that is about it right now.— bottles of white wine but that is about it right now. we will be back with ou about it right now. we will be back with you through _ about it right now. we will be back with you through the _ about it right now. we will be back with you through the evening. - about it right now. we will be back i with you through the evening. thank you very much indeed so we have been to the social democrats, centre—left, cdu, centre—right. next we move to the greens. going back a couple of months where extraordinarily they were topping the polls. some were saying they would supply the chancellor and that my looks a little more difficult because they dropped in the polls but are still on course for 1 of their best ever performances. let's go live to our correspondence. let me bring you in. tell me what the green pitch to voters?— green pitch to voters? obviously climate change _ green pitch to voters? obviously climate change the _ green pitch to voters? obviously climate change the greens - green pitch to voters? obviously i climate change the greens hallmark so annalena — climate change the greens hallmark so annalena baerbock, _ climate change the greens hallmark so annalena baerbock, the - climate change the greens hallmark so annalena baerbock, the leader. climate change the greens hallmark. so annalena baerbock, the leader and chancellor— so annalena baerbock, the leader and chancellor candidate, _ so annalena baerbock, the leader and chancellor candidate, says _ so annalena baerbock, the leader and chancellor candidate, says they- so annalena baerbock, the leader and chancellor candidate, says they can i chancellor candidate, says they can do it like _

chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no— chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no other. _ chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no other. but— chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no other. but she - chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no other. but she is i chancellor candidate, says they can do it like no other. but she is very. do it like no other. but she is very concrete _ do it like no other. but she is very concrete about _ do it like no other. but she is very concrete about what _ do it like no other. but she is very concrete about what germans i do it like no other. but she is veryl concrete about what germans need do it like no other. but she is very- concrete about what germans need to do, concrete about what germans need to do. change _ concrete about what germans need to do. change their— concrete about what germans need to do, change their lifestyle, _ concrete about what germans need to do, change their lifestyle, and - concrete about what germans need to do, change their lifestyle, and that i do, change their lifestyle, and that has put _ do, change their lifestyle, and that has put off— do, change their lifestyle, and that has put off voters. _ do, change their lifestyle, and that has put off voters. 4 _ do, change their lifestyle, and that has put off voters. 4 months - do, change their lifestyle, and that has put off voters. 4 months ago, i has put off voters. 4 months ago, there _ has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was— has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was such _ has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was such a _ has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was such a hype _ has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was such a hype around i has put off voters. 4 months ago, there was such a hype around this ieader~ _ there was such a hype around this ieader~ the — there was such a hype around this leader. the process— there was such a hype around this leader. the process of— there was such a hype around this leader. the process of choosing . there was such a hype around this i leader. the process of choosing her as chanceiior— leader. the process of choosing her as chancellor candidate _ leader. the process of choosing her as chancellor candidate was - leader. the process of choosing her| as chancellor candidate was smooth and well— as chancellor candidate was smooth and well presented, _ as chancellor candidate was smooth and well presented, a _ as chancellor candidate was smooth and well presented, a slick- and well presented, a slick operation _ and well presented, a slick operation. huge _ and well presented, a slick operation. huge hype i and well presented, a slick. operation. huge hype around and well presented, a slick- operation. huge hype around her as and well presented, a slick— operation. huge hype around her as a person. _ operation. huge hype around her as a person. huge— operation. huge hype around her as a person. huge torgue _ operation. huge hype around her as a person, huge torque of— operation. huge hype around her as a person, huge torque of the _ operation. huge hype around her as a person, huge torque of the ist - operation. huge hype around her as a person, huge torque of the ist greenl person, huge torque of the ist green female _ person, huge torque of the ist green female chancellor. _ person, huge torque of the ist green female chancellor. that— person, huge torque of the ist green female chancellor. that hype - person, huge torque of the ist green female chancellor. that hype has. female chancellor. that hype has gone _ female chancellor. that hype has gone we — female chancellor. that hype has gone we are _ female chancellor. that hype has gone. we are seeing _ female chancellor. that hype has gone. we are seeing they- female chancellor. that hype has gone. we are seeing they have i gone. we are seeing they have slipped — gone. we are seeing they have slipped into— gone. we are seeing they have slipped into 3rd _ gone. we are seeing they have slipped into 3rd place - gone. we are seeing they have slipped into 3rd place in - gone. we are seeing they have slipped into 3rd place in the i gone. we are seeing they have i slipped into 3rd place in the polls and that— slipped into 3rd place in the polls and that has— slipped into 3rd place in the polls and that has made _ slipped into 3rd place in the polls and that has made the _ slipped into 3rd place in the polls and that has made the campaignl slipped into 3rd place in the polls- and that has made the campaign much more relaxed — and that has made the campaign much more relaxed because _ and that has made the campaign much more relaxed because what _ and that has made the campaign much more relaxed because what they- and that has made the campaign much more relaxed because what they have i more relaxed because what they have any favourite — more relaxed because what they have any favourite as — more relaxed because what they have any favourite as they _ more relaxed because what they have any favourite as they are _ more relaxed because what they have any favourite as they are 1— more relaxed because what they have any favourite as they are 1 of - more relaxed because what they have any favourite as they are 1 of the i any favourite as they are 1 of the parties _ any favourite as they are 1 of the parties most _ any favourite as they are 1 of the parties most likely— any favourite as they are 1 of the parties most likely to _ any favourite as they are 1 of the parties most likely to get - any favourite as they are 1 of the parties most likely to get into i parties most likely to get into government. _ parties most likely to get into government, very— parties most likely to get into government, very unlikely- parties most likely to get into government, very unlikely to | parties most likely to get into i government, very unlikely to put forward — government, very unlikely to put forward the — government, very unlikely to put forward the chancellor _ government, very unlikely to put forward the chancellor because l government, very unlikely to put i forward the chancellor because poll numbers _ forward the chancellor because poll numbers are — forward the chancellor because poll numbers are not _ forward the chancellor because poll numbers are not good _ forward the chancellor because poll numbers are not good enough i forward the chancellor because poll numbers are not good enough as i forward the chancellor because poll. numbers are not good enough as they stand _ numbers are not good enough as they stand but— numbers are not good enough as they stand but because _ numbers are not good enough as they stand but because they— numbers are not good enough as they stand but because they can _ numbers are not good enough as they stand but because they can either i numbers are not good enough as they stand but because they can either goi stand but because they can either go centre-left _ stand but because they can either go centre-left and — stand but because they can either go centre—left and centre—right, - stand but because they can either go centre—left and centre—right, with i centre—left and centre—right, with the conservatives— centre—left and centre—right, with the conservatives are _ centre—left and centre—right, with the conservatives are the - centre—left and centre—right, with the conservatives are the social. the conservatives are the social democrats. _ the conservatives are the social democrats, they _ the conservatives are the social democrats, they have - the conservatives are the social democrats, they have a - the conservatives are the social democrats, they have a good i the conservatives are the social-

democrats, they have a good chance of getting _ democrats, they have a good chance of getting into — democrats, they have a good chance of getting into government - democrats, they have a good chance of getting into government as - democrats, they have a good chance of getting into government as a i of getting into government as a junior— of getting into government as a junior partner _ of getting into government as a junior partner so _ of getting into government as a junior partner so that _ of getting into government as a junior partner so that has - of getting into government as a junior partner so that has beenl junior partner so that has been their— junior partner so that has been their pitch _ junior partner so that has been their pitch for— junior partner so that has been their pitch for a _ junior partner so that has been their pitch for a while. - junior partner so that has been their pitch for a while. they i junior partner so that has been. their pitch for a while. they have been _ their pitch for a while. they have been very— their pitch for a while. they have been very clear— their pitch for a while. they have been very clear about _ their pitch for a while. they have been very clear about who - their pitch for a while. they have been very clear about who they. their pitch for a while. they have i been very clear about who they want to partner _ been very clear about who they want to partner up— been very clear about who they want to partner up with— been very clear about who they want to partner up with and _ been very clear about who they want to partner up with and that - been very clear about who they want to partner up with and that is - been very clear about who they want to partner up with and that is the i to partner up with and that is the spa. _ to partner up with and that is the spd. that— to partner up with and that is the spd, that would _ to partner up with and that is the spd, that would be _ to partner up with and that is the spd, that would be a _ to partner up with and that is the spd, that would be a meeting i to partner up with and that is the spd, that would be a meeting of| spd, that would be a meeting of minds. _ spd, that would be a meeting of minds. a — spd, that would be a meeting of minds, a centre—left _ spd, that would be a meeting of minds, a centre—left party, i spd, that would be a meeting of minds, a centre—left party, big l spd, that would be a meeting of. minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big _ minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending _ minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that— minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is— minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is what- minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is what theyj on big spending. that is what they feel germany— on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, _ on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, but - on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, but looking i on big spending. that is what theyl feel germany needs, but looking at the poll— feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers _ feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right _ feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right now- feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right now the i the poll numbers right now the figures — the poll numbers right now the figures are _ the poll numbers right now the figures are not _ the poll numbers right now the figures are not high _ the poll numbers right now the figures are not high enough- the poll numbers right now the figures are not high enough to| the poll numbers right now the i figures are not high enough to get a majority— figures are not high enough to get a majority so — figures are not high enough to get a majority so they _ figures are not high enough to get a majority so they would _ figures are not high enough to get a majority so they would need - figures are not high enough to get a majority so they would need a i figures are not high enough to get a majority so they would need a 3rd . majority so they would need a 3rd party _ majority so they would need a 3rd party and — majority so they would need a 3rd party and that _ majority so they would need a 3rd party and that and _ majority so they would need a 3rd party and that and that _ majority so they would need a 3rd party and that and that would be i majority so they would need a 3rd i party and that and that would be the liberal— party and that and that would be the liberal left _ party and that and that would be the liberal left party, _ party and that and that would be the liberal left party, small— party and that and that would be the liberal left party, small tax, - party and that and that would be the liberal left party, small tax, low- liberal left party, small tax, low spending. — liberal left party, small tax, low spending. so— liberal left party, small tax, low spending, so that— liberal left party, small tax, low spending, so that would - liberal left party, small tax, low spending, so that would be i liberal left party, small tax, low spending, so that would be a i spending, so that would be a difficult — spending, so that would be a difficult combination, - spending, so that would be a difficult combination, not i difficult combination, not impossible _ difficult combination, not impossible but _ difficult combination, not impossible but difficult, i difficult combination, not i impossible but difficult, so definitely— impossible but difficult, so definitely looking - impossible but difficult, so definitely looking at - impossible but difficult, so definitely looking at quite. impossible but difficult, so - definitely looking at quite tricky coalition— definitely looking at quite tricky coalition negotiations _ definitely looking at quite tricky coalition negotiations over- definitely looking at quite tricky coalition negotiations over the. definitely looking at quite tricky- coalition negotiations over the next few weeks— coalition negotiations over the next few weeks if— coalition negotiations over the next few weeks if not _ coalition negotiations over the next few weeks if not months. _ coalition negotiations over the next few weeks if not months. presumably the are few weeks if not months. presumably they are buoyant _ few weeks if not months. presumably they are buoyant because _ few weeks if not months. presumably they are buoyant because they - few weeks if not months. presumably they are buoyant because they will. they are buoyant because they will definitely be part of this conversation however the exit poll goes. they will be right at the centre of all of the most likely

outcomes?— centre of all of the most likely outcomes? , , , outcomes? yes, because as i say they can no outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either— outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either way _ outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either way and _ outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either way and they _ outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either way and they will - outcomes? yes, because as i say they can go either way and they will be - can go either way and they will be talking _ can go either way and they will be talking to — can go either way and they will be talking to everyone. _ can go either way and they will be talking to everyone. they- can go either way and they will be talking to everyone. they have i can go either way and they will be . talking to everyone. they have been talking _ talking to everyone. they have been talking to _ talking to everyone. they have been talking to everyone _ talking to everyone. they have been talking to everyone for— talking to everyone. they have been talking to everyone for months, - talking to everyone. they have been talking to everyone for months, and| talking to everyone for months, and that is_ talking to everyone for months, and that is why— talking to everyone for months, and that is why they— talking to everyone for months, and that is why they are _ talking to everyone for months, and that is why they are feeling - that is why they are feeling confident, _ that is why they are feeling confident, relaxed - that is why they are feeling confident, relaxed mood i that is why they are feeling. confident, relaxed mood than that is why they are feeling - confident, relaxed mood than most people _ confident, relaxed mood than most heapie out— confident, relaxed mood than most heapie out in— confident, relaxed mood than most heapie out in the _ confident, relaxed mood than most people out in the beer— confident, relaxed mood than most people out in the beer garden - confident, relaxed mood than most people out in the beer garden and i people out in the beer garden and that signifies _ people out in the beer garden and that signifiesjust_ people out in the beer garden and that signifies just how _ people out in the beer garden and that signifies just how relaxed - people out in the beer garden and l that signifies just how relaxed they feel. that signifies just how relaxed they feet they— that signifies just how relaxed they feet they have _ that signifies just how relaxed they feel. they have sort _ that signifies just how relaxed they feel. they have sort of _ that signifies just how relaxed they feel. they have sort of given - that signifies just how relaxed they feel. they have sort of given up - that signifies just how relaxed they| feel. they have sort of given up the idea of— feel. they have sort of given up the idea of putting _ feel. they have sort of given up the idea of putting forward _ feel. they have sort of given up the idea of putting forward chancellor, i idea of putting forward chancellor, but if _ idea of putting forward chancellor, but if they— idea of putting forward chancellor, but if they get _ idea of putting forward chancellor, but if they get a _ idea of putting forward chancellor, but if they get a decent _ idea of putting forward chancellor, but if they get a decent result, - but if they get a decent result, they— but if they get a decent result, they will— but if they get a decent result, they will he _ but if they get a decent result, they will be very _ but if they get a decent result, they will be very happy - but if they get a decent result, i they will be very happy because it n1eans— they will be very happy because it means they— they will be very happy because it means they could _ they will be very happy because it means they could put _ they will be very happy because it means they could put forward - they will be very happy because it - means they could put forward foreign minister— means they could put forward foreign minister and — means they could put forward foreign minister and maybe _ means they could put forward foreign minister and maybe even _ means they could put forward foreign minister and maybe even finance - minister and maybe even finance minister. — minister and maybe even finance minister. but— minister and maybe even finance minister, but all— minister and maybe even finance minister, but all depends - minister and maybe even finance minister, but all depends on - minister and maybe even financej minister, but all depends on how coalition— minister, but all depends on how coalition negotiations _ minister, but all depends on how coalition negotiations go. - minister, but all depends on how coalition negotiations go. having| coalition negotiations go. having said all— coalition negotiations go. having said all that, _ coalition negotiations go. having said all that, nothing _ coalition negotiations go. having said all that, nothing is - coalition negotiations go. having said all that, nothing is sure - coalition negotiations go. having said all that, nothing is sure on. said all that, nothing is sure on this election _ said all that, nothing is sure on this election campaign. - said all that, nothing is sure on this election campaign. polling| said all that, nothing is sure on. this election campaign. polling all over the _ this election campaign. polling all over the place. _ this election campaign. polling all over the place, unprecedented . over the place, unprecedented numbers— over the place, unprecedented numbers voting _ over the place, unprecedented numbers voting by _ over the place, unprecedented numbers voting by post - over the place, unprecedented numbers voting by post whichi over the place, unprecedented - numbers voting by post which means uncertainty _ numbers voting by post which means uncertainty because _ numbers voting by post which means uncertainty because some _ numbers voting by post which means uncertainty because some voted - numbers voting by post which means . uncertainty because some voted weeks a-o. uncertainty because some voted weeks ag0~ also _ uncertainty because some voted weeks ago. also unprecedented _ uncertainty because some voted weeks ago. also unprecedented numbers- uncertainty because some voted weeks ago. also unprecedented numbers of. ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters _ ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters say— ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters say they — ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters say they are _ ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters say they are unsure _ ago. also unprecedented numbers of voters say they are unsure about - ago. also unprecedented numbers of| voters say they are unsure about who to vote _ voters say they are unsure about who to vote for. _ voters say they are unsure about who to vote for. so — voters say they are unsure about who to vote for, so lots _ voters say they are unsure about who to vote for, so lots of _ voters say they are unsure about who to vote for, so lots of swing - voters say they are unsure about who to vote for, so lots of swing voters i to vote for, so lots of swing voters to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play— to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for— to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for and _ to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for and also _ to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for and also we _ to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for and also we are - to vote for, so lots of swing voters to play for and also we are lookingj to play for and also we are looking at a very— to play for and also we are looking at a very high— to play for and also we are looking at a very high turnout, _

to play for and also we are looking at a very high turnout, so - to play for and also we are looking at a very high turnout, so all- to play for and also we are looking at a very high turnout, so all of. at a very high turnout, so all of those _ at a very high turnout, so all of those factors— at a very high turnout, so all of those factors mean _ at a very high turnout, so all of those factors mean this - at a very high turnout, so all of those factors mean this is - at a very high turnout, so all of those factors mean this is a - at a very high turnout, so all of. those factors mean this is a very hard _ those factors mean this is a very hard election— those factors mean this is a very hard election to _ those factors mean this is a very hard election to call, _ those factors mean this is a very hard election to call, and - those factors mean this is a very hard election to call, and even l hard election to call, and even though— hard election to call, and even though the _ hard election to call, and even though the centre—left - hard election to call, and even . though the centre—left candidate olaf scholz— though the centre—left candidate olaf scholz has _ though the centre—left candidate olaf scholz has been _ though the centre—left candidate olaf scholz has been leading - though the centre—left candidate olaf scholz has been leading it . though the centre—left candidate j olaf scholz has been leading it is narrowing. — olaf scholz has been leading it is narrowing. pretty— olaf scholz has been leading it is narrowing, pretty much - olaf scholz has been leading it is narrowing, pretty much neck- olaf scholz has been leading it is narrowing, pretty much neck and neck _ narrowing, pretty much neck and neck nothing— narrowing, pretty much neck and neck. nothing is— narrowing, pretty much neck and neck. nothing is certain. - narrowing, pretty much neck and neck. nothing is certain. that. narrowing, pretty much neck and neck. nothing is certain. that isi neck. nothing is certain. that is why the — neck. nothing is certain. that is why the greens _ neck. nothing is certain. that is why the greens feel— neck. nothing is certain. that is why the greens feel they - neck. nothing is certain. that is why the greens feel they have l neck. nothing is certain. that is why the greens feel they have a neck. nothing is certain. that is - why the greens feel they have a good chance _ why the greens feel they have a good chance to _ why the greens feel they have a good chance to get — why the greens feel they have a good chance to get into _ why the greens feel they have a good chance to get into government - chance to get into government but how they _ chance to get into government but how they are — chance to get into government but how they are going _ chance to get into government but how they are going to _ chance to get into government but how they are going to do - chance to get into government but how they are going to do that - chance to get into government but how they are going to do that and i how they are going to do that and with whom — how they are going to do that and with whom is _ how they are going to do that and with whom is the _ how they are going to do that and with whom is the big _ how they are going to do that and with whom is the big question. i how they are going to do that and - with whom is the big question. thank ou ve with whom is the big question. thank you very much _ with whom is the big question. thank you very much indeed. _ with whom is the big question. thank you very much indeed. if _ with whom is the big question. thank you very much indeed. if you're - with whom is the big question. you very much indeed. if you're just joining us we are just over 10 minutes away from a hugely important moment for german politics and for germany as a country. angela merkel was not standing in this election, not continuing as chancellor, and then around 10 minutes we get the 1st exit polls game in the 1st hard ist exit polls game in the 1st hard data on which we germans have chosen to go in this election. there are 60,000,000 eligible voters and around 1/3 60,000,000 eligible voters and around us have been saying they are not sure who to vote for, so things have been very fluid and as they alluded to, 40% of voters cast

postal votes, fire up on what germany has done previously. we will have to see how that impacts on the outcome. before rice peaked a couple of guests, i have made a quick report explaining what follows is the result. the bit where parties follow each other and work out who's going to join forces with her to form the next government. when germans sit around the table and discuss politics they don'tjust discuss politics they don'tjust discuss parties, policies and personalities, they also talk about coalitions because all its all be leaders on the well understood, if you want to form a new government you want to form a new government you have to work with your rivals. to make talking about coalitions easier, germans use names based on colours. red is for the social democrats, the centre—left. black is for the cdu and its sister party the csu in bavaria. centre—right. then you have the green party, yellow the

free—market liberals, another red for the far left party and blue as the far right afd. we can discount the far right afd. we can discount the afd because none of the others will work with it but the 5 remaining parties are all relevant to the coalition that could emerge. optioni is the to the coalition that could emerge. option i is the germany coalition with the social democrats, red, union black, and the free—market liberals yellow. they have a lot in common on foreign policy but on taxes and health care they don't necessarily agree. the next option is i that almost happened after the 2017 election but is 1 that almost happened after the 2017 election but the deal couldn't be done. it is called a jamaica coalition. you have the cdu, csu, you have the greens and the free—market liberals of the fdp. another possibility is the cannula coalition and in that case you would have the social democrats again and

the csu, cdu and the greens. these have been pulling top which raises questions about the strength of any opposition to this coalition. the next is the traffic lights coalition. you have read social democrats, the yellow of free—market liberals the ftp but this time the greens as well. they have a lot of common ground but differences on social policy and taxes. they will have to get over that if they want to form a governing coalition. those are a—mac options and believe me, but this is why even when we have the results it is just the start of the results it is just the start of the process. negotiations began and it is only when the coalition is formed that we know who will replace angela merkel. so those are some of the coalition possibilities but there are other style and we know which will become more likely and

which will become more likely and which will become more likely and which will fade away as soon as we see how the election result is going. 1st from the global public policy institute and timo young who runs a youtube channel explaining german politics. we are getting really close to the exit poll. when it comes out, what are you looking for? �*ist it comes out, what are you looking for? ' , ., ., ., it comes out, what are you looking for? ., ., ., , it comes out, what are you looking for? ., . ., ,., it comes out, what are you looking for? ., ., ., ,., ., for? 1st of all, who comes out on to -. it is for? 1st of all, who comes out on top. it is trivial _ for? 1st of all, who comes out on top. it is trivial but _ for? 1st of all, who comes out on top. it is trivial but it _ for? 1st of all, who comes out on top. it is trivial but it will - top. it is trivial but it will determine who is the strongest claim to form _ determine who is the strongest claim to form a _ determine who is the strongest claim to form a government. secondly we will look— to form a government. secondly we will look out at what are plausible coalition — will look out at what are plausible coalition options. if the social democrats have 2 or 3 options they will he _ democrats have 2 or 3 options they will be able to put pressure on other— will be able to put pressure on other coalition partners to form a government under the leadership of the spd _ government under the leadership of the spd even if they come in 2nd place _ the spd even if they come in 2nd place 15 — the spd even if they come in 2nd place. 1/3 of all how bad is the result— place. 1/3 of all how bad is the result for— place. 1/3 of all how bad is the result for the cdu. we know it will be result for the cdu. we know it will he the _ result for the cdu. we know it will be the historically lowest number they will— be the historically lowest number they will ever get but if it is really — they will ever get but if it is really bad, i think we are facing the ousting of the cdu party leader

armin— the ousting of the cdu party leader armin laschet. just the ousting of the cdu party leader armin laschet.— the ousting of the cdu party leader armin laschet. just to be clear, the bi est armin laschet. just to be clear, the biggest party _ armin laschet. just to be clear, the biggest party doesn't _ armin laschet. just to be clear, the biggest party doesn't automatically | biggest party doesn't automatically form the government? we biggest party doesn't automatically form the government?— biggest party doesn't automatically form the government? we have seen historically that _ form the government? we have seen historically that the _ form the government? we have seen historically that the 2nd _ form the government? we have seen historically that the 2nd strongest - historically that the 2nd strongest party— historically that the 2nd strongest party if— historically that the 2nd strongest party if it— historically that the 2nd strongest party if it got the numbers together then was— party if it got the numbers together then was able to form a coalition. we should — then was able to form a coalition. we should treat these numbers with care _ we should treat these numbers with care~ this— we should treat these numbers with care. this week we have a record number— care. this week we have a record number of— care. this week we have a record number of mail—in ballots and the 1st number of mail—in ballots and the ist exit _ number of mail—in ballots and the 1st exit polls will give us a rough idea ist exit polls will give us a rough idea but— 1st exit polls will give us a rough idea but no certainty whatsoever. that is _ idea but no certainty whatsoever. that is interesting, and the fact there are so many postal votes, like we saw in america, may be means the overall projection will move as the postal votes are counted. i overall projection will move as the postal votes are counted.- postal votes are counted. i don't think so because _ postal votes are counted. i don't think so because they _ postal votes are counted. i don't think so because they are - postal votes are counted. i don't think so because they are being | think so because they are being counted simultaneously. find think so because they are being counted simultaneously. and what are ou lookin: counted simultaneously. and what are you looking for? _ counted simultaneously. and what are you looking for? l _ counted simultaneously. and what are you looking for? i am _ counted simultaneously. and what are you looking for? i am looking - you looking for? i am looking forward to — you looking for? i am looking forward to the _ you looking for? i am looking forward to the green - you looking for? i am looking forward to the green result . you looking for? i am looking - forward to the green result because it is very important they get ahead of the liberals and i want to see the results of the fascist party,

the results of the fascist party, the afd, because hopefully they are not going to be as big as last time. and to explain, they ended up because we have the social democrats and cdu on a grand coalition, at the moment they would be the biggest opposition party?— moment they would be the biggest opposition party? exactly, and they shouldn't be _ opposition party? exactly, and they shouldn't be after— opposition party? exactly, and they shouldn't be after the _ opposition party? exactly, and they shouldn't be after the selection. . shouldn't be after the selection. this is the most important thing. �*i this is the most important thing. 1 thing i found interesting as i keep thing ifound interesting as i keep hearing people say climate change is the biggest issue, this is the climate change election, and the greens are doing well compared with their history but not doing that well? , ., ., ., ., , ., , well? they are not doing as well as they hoped — well? they are not doing as well as they hoped for _ well? they are not doing as well as they hoped for because _ well? they are not doing as well as they hoped for because they - well? they are not doing as well as they hoped for because they had i well? they are not doing as well as they hoped for because they had a | they hoped for because they had a shot at— they hoped for because they had a shot at becoming the strongest 2nd strongest _ shot at becoming the strongest 2nd strongest party. this is not an election— strongest party. this is not an election about any particular topic whether— election about any particular topic whether climate or social cohesion orjustice — whether climate or social cohesion orjustice. this is fair and square and election— orjustice. this is fair and square and election about who is best suited — and election about who is best suited to — and election about who is best suited to lead germany after angela merkel— suited to lead germany after angela merkel and i think if you look for1

topic— merkel and i think if you look for1 topic it _ merkel and i think if you look for1 topic it is — merkel and i think if you look for1 topic it is always the best person topic it is always the best person to succeed — topic it is always the best person to succeed angela merkel and i think move _ to succeed angela merkel and i think move the _ to succeed angela merkel and i think move the needle in the past months. people _ move the needle in the past months. people are _ move the needle in the past months. people are saying that climate change and socialjustice are the most important topics, but then again we didn't see a transformational campaign that this country needed. we needed a transformational campaign by for example the green party and they were unable and unwilling to do that and it is turning out to be a horrible election for young people. but isn't i horrible election for young people. but isn'ti issue that perhaps germans don't want a transformation, they are happy with the situation right now. they are happy with the situation riaht now. . , , they are happy with the situation i right now— you right now. that is the problem. you see it as a — right now. that is the problem. you see it as a problem _ right now. that is the problem. you see it as a problem but _ right now. that is the problem. you see it as a problem but looking - right now. that is the problem. you see it as a problem but looking at l see it as a problem but looking at the politics, both parties have been comfortable selling themselves as continuity candidates.— comfortable selling themselves as continuity candidates. exactly, and even on climate _ continuity candidates. exactly, and even on climate change _ continuity candidates. exactly, and even on climate change the - continuity candidates. exactly, and even on climate change the sociall even on climate change the social democrats — even on climate change the social democrats and even cdu have promised action~ _ democrats and even cdu have promised action~ is— democrats and even cdu have promised action is it—

democrats and even cdu have promised action. is it enough to satisfy young — action. is it enough to satisfy young activists on the front. i young activists on the front. 1 thing — young activists on the front. 1 thing to— young activists on the front. 1 thing to really take into account is the kind _ thing to really take into account is the kind of— thing to really take into account is the kind of trust in the lead candidates. we have a situation where _ candidates. we have a situation where polls say 2/3 of germans have confidence _ where polls say 2/3 of germans have confidence in olaf scholz's competence to the do the job. only less than— competence to the do the job. only less than 1/3 have confidence in armin— less than 1/3 have confidence in armin laschet and annalena baerbock, their confidence to do the job and fill the _ their confidence to do the job and fill the shoes of angela merkel. we will see _ fill the shoes of angela merkel. we will see that play out tonight. i think will see that play out tonight. i think most germans if they had to pick between the 3 candidates, they always chose none of the above. they didn't like any of them. olaf scholz was the i eyed king among the blind, and it is a very interesting for me as a young journalist to see a party plagued by corruption, this is the cdu, the conservative, that they may still end up onjob and a candidate

for chancellor who is plagued by corruption as well with the 2 largest financial scandals. he has denied any _ largest financial scandals. he has denied any wrongdoing, - largest financial scandals. he has denied any wrongdoing, we - largest financial scandals. he has l denied any wrongdoing, we should say. denied any wrongdoing, we should sa . ., denied any wrongdoing, we should sa , ., . ., denied any wrongdoing, we should sa. ., ., ., denied any wrongdoing, we should sa _ ., ., ., there say. you can always say that. there is no evidence _ say. you can always say that. there is no evidence that _ say. you can always say that. there is no evidence that there _ say. you can always say that. there is no evidence that there is - say. you can always say that. there is no evidence that there is any - is no evidence that there is any wrongdoing on the part of olaf scholz — wrongdoing on the part of olaf scholz. he wrongdoing on the part of olaf scholz. . . wrongdoing on the part of olaf scholz. . , ., , wrongdoing on the part of olaf scholz. ., , ., , ., ., scholz. he has denied any wrongdoing and he has not — scholz. he has denied any wrongdoing and he has not been _ scholz. he has denied any wrongdoing and he has not been found _ scholz. he has denied any wrongdoing and he has not been found to - scholz. he has denied any wrongdoing and he has not been found to do - and he has not been found to do anything wrong. let's talk about the 3 other parties because the way the german system works, the smaller parties are relevant. let's talk about the far left now because there are some situations in which social democrats may choose to work with them and that might be surprised surprise to viewers outside of germany. surprise to viewers outside of germany-— surprise to viewers outside of german . , ,. ., , ., germany. they will scramble to enter the parliament. _ germany. they will scramble to enter the parliament. they _ germany. they will scramble to enter the parliament. they have _ germany. they will scramble to enter the parliament. they have a - germany. they will scramble to enter the parliament. they have a hard - the parliament. they have a hard time _ the parliament. they have a hard time securing an aft votes. i think it will— time securing an aft votes. i think it will be — time securing an aft votes. i think it will be a — time securing an aft votes. i think it will be a bargaining chip to see if it is—

it will be a bargaining chip to see if it is theoretically possible to form _ if it is theoretically possible to form a — if it is theoretically possible to form a centre—left government with the greens— form a centre—left government with the greens and the left party, he will then— the greens and the left party, he will then use it to get the free democrats, the pro—business party, to agree _ democrats, the pro—business party, to agree to— democrats, the pro—business party, to agree to form a coalition with the greens. | to agree to form a coalition with the greens— to agree to form a coalition with the greens. , , ., ., , ., , the greens. i 'ust explain to people who don't the greens. ijust explain to people who don't know _ the greens. ijust explain to people who don't know the _ the greens. ijust explain to people who don't know the system, - the greens. ijust explain to people who don't know the system, f - the greens. ijust explain to people who don't know the system, f die i who don't know the system, f die linke fall below 5%, then below 3 directly mps... linke fall below 5%, then below 3 directly mps. . ._ linke fall below 5%, then below 3 directly mps. .. they would be out of the parliament. _ directly mps. .. they would be out of the parliament. let's _ directly mps. .. they would be out of the parliament. let's talk _ directly mps. .. they would be out of the parliament. let's talk about - directly mps. .. they would be out of the parliament. let's talk about the | the parliament. let's talk about the fdp, free-market _ the parliament. let's talk about the fdp, free-market liberals, - the parliament. let's talk about the l fdp, free-market liberals, introduce fdp, free—market liberals, introduce them to our viewers. the fdp, free-market liberals, introduce them to our viewers.— them to our viewers. the old school neo liberal— them to our viewers. the old school neo liberal party. — them to our viewers. the old school neo liberal party, 2/3_ them to our viewers. the old school neo liberal party, 2/3 of— them to our viewers. the old school neo liberal party, 2/3 of their - neo liberal party, 2/3 of their voters are usually conservative voters are usually conservative voters and they switch every election, so 8 years ago they didn't make the parliament because most people voted for angela merkel�*s party, and this time they might end “p party, and this time they might end up hating armin laschet and the party leader too much so they get enough votes and even surpass afd.

let me understand, the cdu, angela merkel�*s party, has gone from 32% last election to 22, 23, so that going because it hasn't gone to the free—market liberals? going because it hasn't gone to the free-market liberals?— going because it hasn't gone to the free-market liberals? some people 'ust don't free-market liberals? some people just don't go _ free-market liberals? some people just don't go out — free-market liberals? some people just don't go out and _ free-market liberals? some people just don't go out and vote. - free-market liberals? some people just don't go out and vote. many i just don't go out and vote. many people vote for the liberals, the liberal fdp, or the alternative germany, the far right party. i germany, the far right party. i think quite a few voters, olaf scholz's— think quite a few voters, olaf scholz's game was to get the so—called angela merkel cdu voters and he _ so—called angela merkel cdu voters and he has — so—called angela merkel cdu voters and he has a fair shot of getting some _ and he has a fair shot of getting some so— and he has a fair shot of getting some so let's see where they end up but if— some so let's see where they end up but if they— some so let's see where they end up but if they end up at 25 instead of 20% last — but if they end up at 25 instead of 20% last time, among those 5% will be quite _ 20% last time, among those 5% will be quite a _ 20% last time, among those 5% will be quite a few who voted for missus merkel— be quite a few who voted for missus merkel last time and i would say olaf scholz is best suited to succeed _ olaf scholz is best suited to succeed angela merkel.�*i olaf scholz is best suited to succeed angela merkel. 1 final thing to exlain succeed angela merkel. 1 final thing to explain before _ succeed angela merkel. 1 final thing to explain before the _ succeed angela merkel. 1 final thing to explain before the exit _ succeed angela merkel. 1 final thing to explain before the exit polls - to explain before the exit polls

come through because if we look at the exit polls and we see the afd and far right, we need to understand that none of the other parties will work with them so there is no possibility they will be on the government?— possibility they will be on the government? possibility they will be on the rovernment? , ., , ., government? exactly, and they are the [arrest government? exactly, and they are the largest opposition _ government? exactly, and they are the largest opposition party - government? exactly, and they are the largest opposition party right . the largest opposition party right now and — the largest opposition party right now and it would be an important signal— now and it would be an important signal if— now and it would be an important signal if they lose that status. but how have signal if they lose that status. ielii how have you read their campaign? last election emigration was the number i last election emigration was the numberi issue. still a last election emigration was the numberi issue. stilla big last election emigration was the numberi issue. still a big issue but not as big as it was. has that affected last time around and see years ago we were _ last time around and see years ago we were still seeing them set the agenda _ we were still seeing them set the agenda of— we were still seeing them set the agenda of national debates. they were _ agenda of national debates. they were not— agenda of national debates. they were not able to do that this time around, _ were not able to do that this time around, so — were not able to do that this time around, so i — were not able to do that this time around, so i think it is a positive sign _ around, so i think it is a positive sign that— around, so i think it is a positive sign that there was a real contest within— sign that there was a real contest within the — sign that there was a real contest within the political centre, and that's— within the political centre, and that's what we had been hoping and looking _ that's what we had been hoping and looking for, a situation project afd it doesn't— looking for, a situation project afd it doesn't set the agenda. and thai immigration, and tight as long, those _ immigration, and tight as long, those forces are there and strong, but it— those forces are there and strong, but it didn't — those forces are there and strong, but it didn't set the agenda of this

election — but it didn't set the agenda of this election. we but it didn't set the agenda of this election. ~ . ., , , , election. we are approaching this very important — election. we are approaching this very important moment, - election. we are approaching this very important moment, the - election. we are approaching this very important moment, the exit| election. we are approaching this - very important moment, the exit pull on the first projection, we should explain, this is important but the beginning of quite a long progress, these negotiations could take months. it these negotiations could take months. . ., , months. it could end up until the christmas holidays _ months. it could end up until the christmas holidays we _ months. it could end up until the christmas holidays we don't - months. it could end up until the christmas holidays we don't have months. it could end up until the i christmas holidays we don't have a new government. i christmas holidays we don't have a new government.— new government. i think it is fairly likel that new government. i think it is fairly likely that mrs _ new government. i think it is fairly likely that mrs merkel— new government. i think it is fairly likely that mrs merkel will- new government. i think it is fairly likely that mrs merkel will still- new government. i think it is fairly likely that mrs merkel will still be | likely that mrs merkel will still be with us— likely that mrs merkel will still be with us on new year's giving her new your speech — with us on new year's giving her new your speech and adorning another blazerm — your speech and adorning another blazer... ~ ., , your speech and adorning another blazer... ., , . ., blazer... who is in charge, then? the president _ blazer... who is in charge, then? the president suggested - blazer... who is in charge, then? the president suggested to - blazer... who is in charge, then? the president suggested to the i the president suggested to the winning party to form a coalition, but an income the coalition parties, they are in charge. find but an income the coalition parties, they are in charge.— they are in charge. and mrs merkel bus as a they are in charge. and mrs merkel busty as a caretaker— they are in charge. and mrs merkel busty as a caretaker chancellor. - they are in charge. and mrs merkel| busty as a caretaker chancellor. for the moment, thank you very much indeed. just to explain, we are looking at a situation where it is the end of angela merkel�*s time as

chancellor, she is not standing. once a coalition is sorted, a new chancellor will be in place, and angela merkel�*s time as leader of germany might come to an end. it might be after christmas, we just don't know. she is going to stay in charge for the moment about these things are sorted. here are some useful contacts as we go towards the exit poll. this is current make—up of parliament. this is after the 2017 election. the centre—right party, the cdu and its sister party, it has 21r5 seats. the second largest party, the social democrats had 152 seat. for both of them, that was disappointing. we have seen a diversification of german politics. then you had the right wing 01, alternative for germany. it currently has 87 seats, then you

have the free—market liberals on 80, the left, die linke, has 69, and the greens have 67. it gives you an idea that if the greens to continue as the polling suggests, it would be a significant shift to establish himself very much as today major party of german politics. let's bring an hour corresponded at the headquarters of the spd. i'm guessing things are getting pretty nervy. guessing things are getting pretty ne . , . ., , ., guessing things are getting pretty ne . , . . , ., , nervy. they certainly are, but in the last minute _ nervy. they certainly are, but in the last minute or _ nervy. they certainly are, but in the last minute or so, _ nervy. they certainly are, but in the last minute or so, some - nervy. they certainly are, but in i the last minute or so, some huge cheers have erupted from this place. we have come outside to show you the beer garden they have set up, this being germany, of course. they are getting information through, you can see people looking at the church on the tv screens, and they are delighted, because they thought they had done really well, but it seems those hops have really been well place, because they are doing the

maths, and it is looking like it could be a pretty good night for the social democrats here in germany. it is early days, and we have been sent for the last few days, the whole business of building a coalition is by no means straightforward. it is not often quick in germany, but there is certainly appointment here, that are truly left it in the last five or ten minutes. to that are truly left it in the last five or ten minutes. to explain to our viewers. _ five or ten minutes. to explain to our viewers, the _ five or ten minutes. to explain to our viewers, the spd _ five or ten minutes. to explain to our viewers, the spd don't - five or ten minutes. to explain to our viewers, the spd don't come | five or ten minutes. to explain to i our viewers, the spd don't come top in many german elections, it only happens once in a while. absolutely, and thus would _ happens once in a while. absolutely, and thus would be a _ happens once in a while. absolutely, and thus would be a reversal- happens once in a while. absolutely, and thus would be a reversal of- and thus would be a reversal of fortunes, really, if you have got the social democrats, the junior partner and the coalition government here in germany. if that were to change and they were leading the way, it is interesting, because how could the country look? how would it feel for germans? 0rto could the country look? how would it feel for germans? or to the rest of the world? how would olaf scholz

guide this country in the coming years when it comes to the recovery of the pandemic, taking the economy and a new direction. how will he deal with china, borisjohnson and the british government? what will germany's role within the eu be? he is a man who has been the finance minister for the last three 1/2 years. he has been angela merkel�*s a deputy, and he is trying to saw himself as a candidate of continuity, even though he is a different party from angela merkel�*s and services. fascinating to see how it pans out. but also how he tries to construct a coalition, if he is able to do so, if all the hobs here are able to do with us are well founded, and they will be leading the coalition in the months and years to come. the coalition in the months and years to come-— years to come. thank you very much indeed. years to come. thank you very much indeed- as — years to come. thank you very much indeed- as we _ years to come. thank you very much indeed. as we were _ years to come. thank you very much indeed. as we were talking, - years to come. thank you very much indeed. as we were talking, we i years to come. thank you very much | indeed. as we were talking, we have details of this exit poll, the first exit poll we can bring others german election. the first proper information and to guide that we

have to how this election go. this is remarkable. we have the cdu, angela merkel 's party, led by armin laschet, along with her sister party, on 25% come up on where they have been pulling in the last few days. then you have the social democrats. they have been pulling around 25%, but there will surely be some disappointment they have not managed to edge ahead. the longer term context is to return around 15% couple of months ago, so they have still made progress. i should also say, this is an exit poll. we will get actual production shortly, but this is an exit poll, so these numbers could move. next the greens on 15%. they were up around 25% but they have fallen away, but in the context of 2017, this is a significant shift. they want below

10% in the last election. people are saying climate change is a big issue, that appears to have played well for the greens. next, the free—market liberals. they normally trade voters with the cdu as we have just been discussing. there are 11% come online without a doubt at the last election. there could be absolutely crucial in which way a coalition because, because look at those numbers. those two together, either option, don't get you to 50%, so who will help those parties reach 50%, you would imagine the ftp would be keen to have a conversation with both. alternative for germany, the biggest opposition party in the current parliament, that is just done and how it pulled in 2017. not a major drop, butjust done. remember, no one will work with afd, so they will not be in the next government. and then you have die linke. if that proved to be correct,

that means die linke is still able to stay within the parliament. drop below 5% or three directly elected mps, you don't have representation at all. the reason that matters is that, if the social democrats want to get together with the greens, they might also want to bring die linke to help make a coalition, although that still only get you to 45%. die linke very much part of the coalition conversation. let's go straight to the cdu headquarters. that's a shame. we will get her in a minute in the cdu headquarters. let's go to the green headquarters.

the exit polls came out to joy and jubilation here among agreement members. it was really overwhelming. people are really happy because his exit polls, if they are finer results, are really good news for the greens. as we were saying, they could go either way, with the sdp, the cdu, left or right. what they need to do is get into government, the foreign ministry, maybe even the finance ministry. this means you have a realistic chance of doing that. there literally likely now. the green mps and parliament is a huge rise. this would be 15%, that would be a record result for the greens in parliament, because it would mean they could get into parliament as a general partner,

potentially... there was joy and jubilation, and a little bit of nervousness, because these are on the exit polls, but it is very very positive, and it is probably the only place right now people are celebrating. if only place right now people are celebrating-— only place right now people are celebratina. , , , celebrating. if these numbers turn out to be true. _ celebrating. if these numbers turn out to be true, we _ celebrating. if these numbers turn out to be true, we are _ celebrating. if these numbers turn out to be true, we are going - celebrating. if these numbers turn out to be true, we are going to i celebrating. if these numbers turn l out to be true, we are going to need at least three parties going into coalition together, something that hasn't happened in germany for decades. . �* . �* hasn't happened in germany for decades. . �* , ~ ., decades. that's right. and it would be a challenge. _ decades. that's right. and it would be a challenge. they _ decades. that's right. and it would be a challenge. they made - decades. that's right. and it would be a challenge. they made in i decades. that's right. and it would i be a challenge. they made in germany so far, in theory, what would happen next, if the spd could pull ahead, and become the main party, that would work really well for the greens. they want a government and a centre—left position. they have been very clear about this. as you say, they would be the third party. that would be a liberal sdp party. there are modernising project... on the

one hand, the low tax,... difficult, but not impossible. _ one hand, the low tax,... difficult, but not impossible. sorry - one hand, the low tax,... difficult, but not impossible. sorry for - but not impossible. sorry for interrupting you, it is just that the leader of afd is about to... the moment i said that, he stopped talking. just to explain, the afd has held its position at i2% in the last election, down to ii% in these exit polls. these are the results, but if the exit polls are correct, it is not very slightly, when you consider that the last election emigration was a huge hot topic, because of the refugees coming into germany. perhaps the afd will be glad it has held its position to some degree. let mejust glad it has held its position to some degree. let me just reiterate this exit poll. this is a remarkable outcome that sets it up for some fierce negotiations, if it is correct. let me to show you again what the exit polls say. we will be getting projections and a minute

too. you have the cdu and csu, often called the union. when you hear coalition to discuss with different colours, that is represented by black. 25%. there are two bits of looking at this. by far the worst result for them in many years, 32% in the last election was bad, and it is down by seven point. but if you look at where it was pulling a couple of weeks ago, the new 20%, this is not a bad outcome, because it is projected that it is level with the social democrats. they were third two months ago, but they have pushback to be top, and there are joint top, but perhaps is not precisely where they want to be. then we have the greens, damien just describing everyone is very happy at the headquarters. up seven points in 2017. then the fdp on 11, afd on 11,

we havejust been 2017. then the fdp on 11, afd on 11, we have just been discussing them. die linke, they left, a significant drop on the last election. it is just hanging on and the parliament. if that is confirmed, it will be represented, but onlyjust. let's go back to thomson, who is helping us guide the way through these results. it's exciting results. i think the hopes of mrs merkel to go into early retirement before christmas have just faded. as you said, we are set “p just faded. as you said, we are set up for some very protracted negotiation. the result means one of the selection of the social democrats and the greens. together, they won ten percentage points compared to the last election. the loser as armin laschet, but she hasn't lost enough in order not to have a claim to form the next government. i think both mister scholz and mister laschet will try

to lure the democrats into coalition. we will see her succeed. he will throw in some goodies, like they could get the federal presidents office, so we see a lot ofjoking. we then need to wait for the raw numbers in terms of who gets out in pole position. find the raw numbers in terms of who gets out in pole position.— out in pole position. and a small detail, unimportant _ out in pole position. and a small detail, unimportant detail, i out in pole position. and a small detail, unimportant detail, that| detail, unimportant detail, that when you have the percentages in a german election, you then translate that into seats in the parliament, and the size of the parliament changes, and it is only when you understand you really understand the results. .. , . understand you really understand the results. , . . , results. exactly. it is fairly certain you _ results. exactly. it is fairly certain you have _ results. exactly. it is fairly certain you have a - results. exactly. it is fairly| certain you have a majority results. exactly. it is fairly i certain you have a majority for the coalition, forjamaica coalition, and what you introduce as a traffic light coalition. a centre—left coalition has a very sketchy majority, according to the polls, but we need to see the final numbers, as you say. find but we need to see the final numbers, as you say.- but we need to see the final numbers, as you say. and if these numbers, as you say. and if these numbers are _

numbers, as you say. and if these numbers are coloured, _ numbers, as you say. and if these numbers are coloured, what - numbers, as you say. and if these numbers are coloured, what is i numbers, as you say. and if these i numbers are coloured, what is really awkward as there are no two parties that can make it to 50%, apart from the two big parties, who perhaps don't want to work with each other. it gives the greens and the ftp out huge amounts of leverage both of the big parties. huge amounts of leverage both of the bi arties. , ., ., huge amounts of leverage both of the bi arties. ., ., , big parties. they also have lovers, but also, big parties. they also have lovers, but also. they _ big parties. they also have lovers, but also, they need _ big parties. they also have lovers, but also, they need to _ big parties. they also have lovers, but also, they need to commit i big parties. they also have lovers, j but also, they need to commit one party may prefer going with the cdu, the others met prefer to go with mister scholz. we should also wait for who ends up as a top party, that party has a stronger negotiating position, although it will not guarantee success. fire position, although it will not guarantee success.- position, although it will not uuarantee success. , , , guarantee success. are you surprised at the far right — guarantee success. are you surprised at the far right has _ guarantee success. are you surprised at the far right has essentially - at the far right has essentially kept its vote? flat at the far right has essentially kept its vote ?_ at the far right has essentially kept its vote? not at all. i think we are a normal— kept its vote? not at all. i think we are a normal country, - kept its vote? not at all. i think we are a normal country, no i kept its vote? not at all. i think. we are a normal country, no more european country, 11% for the far right party is not exactly a lot. it is too much for my personal terms, but i'm not surprised at they have kept it there. they are established

in the german party system. during the campaign. _ in the german party system. during the campaign, there _ in the german party system. during the campaign, there was _ in the german party system. during the campaign, there was a - in the german party system. during the campaign, there was a lot i in the german party system. during the campaign, there was a lot of i the campaign, there was a lot of criticism of the cdu that the social democrats would consider working with the far left. the social democrats wouldn't rule it out, but with die linke on 5%, it is not a big factor, because it doesn't get the coalition to 50%.— big factor, because it doesn't get the coalition to 50%. exactly. now, it looks like — the coalition to 50%. exactly. now, it looks like the i the coalition to 50%. exactly. now, it looks like the numbers i the coalition to 50%. exactly. now, it looks like the numbers don't i the coalition to 50%. exactly. now, it looks like the numbers don't add| it looks like the numbers don't add up, but it also looks like not enough germans were scared by this campaign backed mister laschet to say he wants to go with the left, and german is in danger. i think that hasn't diminished the vote. just a word about the fact that both of the big parties are a long way below for the mets have been in an election 20 years ago. german politics is continuing to fragment.

exactly. you're also becoming a normal european country, moving a little bit in the direction of the netherlands other countries, what used to be a catch all parties between 30 and 45% under mid—size parties of about 25%. but then again, those who talk about the death of social democracy in europe, i think they also need to realise social democracy has a claim to form a government and germany. it continues to be a major force a government and germany. it continues to be a majorforce in politics. continues to be a ma'or force in olitics. . ., ., ., ., politics. half an hour ago, you will sink this election i politics. half an hour ago, you will sink this election was i politics. half an hour ago, you will sink this election was about i sink this election was about personalities. who replaces angela merkel. this is that germans cannot make their mind up.— make their mind up. exactly. they cannot, because i make their mind up. exactly. they cannot, because a i make their mind up. exactly. they cannot, because a voting i make their mind up. exactly. they cannot, because a voting system | make their mind up. exactly. they| cannot, because a voting system is not set up in a way that you fought for mrs merkel�*s successor. we have a different system. i think if it

were a direct vote, mister scholz would have won this easily. i think for the social democrats ended up shows that quite a few want to see mister scholz as the next chancellor, but not enough to won an overwhelming majority. {line overwhelming ma'ority. one interestingh overwhelming majority. one interesting detail. i overwhelming majority. one interesting detail. there is exit poll, cdu 25, spd 25%. another exit poll, cdu 25, spd 25%. another exit poll, spd 26, cdu 24. this is not 100% clear if it is a dead heat or not. .. , ~ 10096 clear if it is a dead heat or not. .. , ~ . 10096 clear if it is a dead heat or not. .. , . , ., 10096 clear if it is a dead heat or not. , . , ., ., not. exactly. we will see four of these numbers i not. exactly. we will see four of these numbers mean. ii not. exactly. we will see four of these numbers mean. i think. not. exactly. we will see four of| these numbers mean. i think the early voting, the postal ballots would favour the social democrats, so let's see brothers numbers with, but even if the social democrats secured a place on top, that doesn't mean that mister laschet cannot try to form a government itself. thanks

for the moment. i to form a government itself. thanks for the moment. we i to form a government itself. thanks for the moment. we are i to form a government itself. thanks for the moment. we are looking i to form a government itself. thanks for the moment. we are looking at. for the moment. we are looking at the german election. we have these exit polls. the green party, one example on 15, another on 14. either as a significant uplift on 2016. a listen in. translation: i as a significant uplift on 2016. a listen in. tuna/mom- listen in. translation: i was everywhere. _ listen in. translation: i was everywhere, everywhere i listen in. translation: iwas| everywhere, everywhere across listen in. translation: laws everywhere, everywhere across the country. the greens are a berliner party. we have proved that. i would like to thank the entire team... thank you so much.

you have all put up with me, and you have worked in the background to help me, and you have taken my place sometimes when i was unable to stand in front of everyone. i would like to thank you for that. and i haven't looked around for quite a while, and i don't know what day forecasts are now, but on lunn and robert will join me very soon. they have given us new strains and a new significance at national level. and together, we made it. we achieved what we achieved two today. you can ick u- what we achieved two today. you can pick up from — what we achieved two today. you can pick up from the _ what we achieved two today. you can pick up from the speech i what we achieved two today. you can pick up from the speech that i what we achieved two today. you can pick up from the speech that the i pick up from the speech that the green party in germany it's very, very pleased with how this has gone, despite the fact it was pulling top a couple of months back. it has come

third, and started to sing, we are not a major player in german politics. remember, the reason this matters as it is not about who comes on top, technically that does not matter, what matters is what coalition parties will form to reach 50% in the parliament, and once that coalition is formed, it is that per stew seated next chancellor. that is why we are not going to know who angela merkel�*s replacement as next season. should you want exit poll, let me show a second. it varies very slightly from the previous one. not such good drilling for armin laschet. cdu on 24, spd on 26, a 2—point gap. closer to some of the polling we have seen in the last few days. the greens on 15%, matching the previous poll. the free—market liberals on i2%. they will be absolutely crucial deciding which coalition is formed. afd on 10%,

they were on 11 and the others, but largely holding the opposition from 27. an lindner, not a great election for the father party on 5%. just clinging on to its place in the parliament. that's talk a little bit about the process that will follow. we have an exit poll, people get projection. the power to start phoning each other? i projection. the power to start phoning each other?- projection. the power to start phoning each other? i would assume the have phoning each other? i would assume they have phoned — phoning each other? i would assume they have phoned each i phoning each other? i would assume they have phoned each other- phoning each other? i would assume | they have phoned each other already, and we have seen quite a few backdoor negotiations over the past few weeks to test the waters on the different coalition options, and to see further parties stand. that will continue, but i think parties will want to read for a bit more clarity before coming out publicly, because if indeed there support hordes and mister scholz comes out top, with a

2% difference, and if you look at the numbers, a centre—left coalition might be a possibility, but a 46% total. there are quite a few votes that fall by the wayside. 46 might be enough to form a theoretical majority, so that would increase his negotiating position going into these negotiation.— negotiating position going into these negotiation. people watching in the uk will _ these negotiation. people watching in the uk will remember i these negotiation. people watching in the uk will remember the i in the uk will remember the coalition of 2010, and the conservative and the liberal democrats signed a coalition agreement. is that how it works in germany? agreement. is that how it works in german ? , . agreement. is that how it works in german ? , , ., germany? everything is written down? exactl . germany? everything is written down? exactly- there — germany? everything is written down? exactly. there are i germany? everything is written down? exactly. there are two i germany? everything is written down? exactly. there are two phases, i germany? everything is written down? exactly. there are two phases, first i exactly. there are two phases, first to test the waters, and there will be preliminary negotiations, and then they decide which of the options you are going to go on to formal negotiations, and then you end up with the coalition treaty. last time around, even though there is a formal negotiations on the

so—called jamaica coalition, the free democrats decided to pull the plug at the last minute, and they walked away and said, we would rather not governed and governed badly, and that can happen any time, so that also means we have a fairly long time horizon. for european politics, that means the french elections are coming up, so we have a very very short window to get anything done in the first three months of the french presidency of the european union next year. so for european politics, this protracted negotiations is not necessarily a good piece of news. the negotiations is not necessarily a good piece of news.— good piece of news. the french election in _ good piece of news. the french election in april i good piece of news. the french election in april next i good piece of news. the french election in april next year, i i election in april next year, i think. talk to me about policy, because of some of these parties have to work together, to me it looks difficult. how'd you get the free—market liberals to find a common ground with social democrats?

they seem to have completely different attitudes towards social policy, tax and other issues. exactly, but i think they have a ready signal on their balance budget that the cdu holds as a religious 9°. that the cdu holds as a religious go, he is quite flexible. hejust wants to avoid any tax increases, on climate change, it means the greens have a very strong position on things like call. all these issues will need to be handled fairly delicately. also on euro zone matters. but i don't think on either constellation, a compromise is impossible. constellation, a compromise is impossible-— constellation, a compromise is imossible. ., ,, , . impossible. thank you very much indeed for _ impossible. thank you very much indeed for the i impossible. thank you very much indeed for the moment. i impossible. thank you very much indeed for the moment. just i impossible. thank you very much indeed for the moment. just to i indeed for the moment. just to explain how this works. none of the parties are reaching 50%, so they have to make deals with each other. they have to compromise on some policies they believe in order to get others. they trade, you can have

this ministry, and i will take this job instead. in those negotiations can some time. let me just show you those exit polls once more, because don't forget, angela merkel and and she was standing down three years ago. her party went through a process but it selected a leader, dan replaced at leader, then it selected a candidate, armin laschet, and that is who we are seeing contesting this. this is one of the exit polls, the first one. cdu and the spd on 25. greens on 15, free—market liberals on 11, afd on 11, and the far left on 5%. that is one exit poll. in germany, you have a number of exit polls, as well as the formal projection. with the formal projection, those are votes as they are counted, so it is

updated as more votes are counted. we don't have one yet, but we do have the second exit poll. this one is similar, but with some fluctuations. these could be important fluctuation. you have the cdu, csu two points behind the social democrats. if that was to play out, olaf scholz would climb in public to have the right to try and form a coalition. the system doesn't actually dictate the bigger party has any more rights, but in the eyes of the public, perhaps, he would be able to say, i have come top, give me a chance to form a coalition. to a crucial parties, the greens 15, fcp on 12. on the source to pack parties come together, we get another grand coalition, which a lot of commentators think is unlikely, the greens and the ftp are surely going to be involved in some way. where do the others fit in?

alternative for germany doesn't fit in anywhere, because none of the other five will go into government, so they will be in opposition. die linke had been closer to 10% in the last election, that give it up lots of leverage. on 5%. those conversations become a lot harder. and remember, one twist here as well, after the last election, it took five months, there are all sorts of different permutations that went to run. one of the conclusions was perhaps for the social democrats being in pub with the cdu or csu wasn't such a great plan. five months later, they formed another coalition and went back into government with the cdu. we know that because olaf scholz has been the deputy chancellor. he has been at the finance minister putting together a package to respond to the pandemic. those two big parties have been working together, to make music suggests it would rather not do that

once more, but we thought that last time. you will have to see. let's catch up with the bbc�*s the porter who has a report on how the day's voting has gone. a gruelling test of endurance with sometimes no end in sight. it is the day of the berlin marathon. thousands have been pounding the streets of the capital and across the country, millions have been casting their vote, including party leaders. plummeting support for the early favourite conservative leader armin laschet appears to have slowed in recent days. could his sprint finish make him chancellor? translation: it is an exciting day and because it is such a tight race, j every vote counts. today is for voters. social democrat olaf scholz is hoping he can top the podium. the current finance minister

is hoping to cash in on being angela merkel�*s deputy in the last coalition government, painting himself as a reassuring successor. translation: i hope many germans will vote and make possible i what we have seen in the polls — a very good result for the sdp and the opportunity to for me to become chancellor. thank you very much. and to what extent will germany go green in 2021? annalena baerbock hopes a long way. the green candidate is counting on younger voters in particular, who have been vocal in demanding more action on climate change. climate change has been a key issue, especially because of the devastating floods germany suffered this summer. 190 died after violent storms. many communities were devastated and will have to be rebuilt. recovering from the covid pandemic will also be in mind as germany prepares for a digitalfuture.

there have been long queues here at the heart of berlin today. as we reach the end of this unpredictable race. one thing is sure, though — germany will get another coalition government and that is how it works around here. but getting the new coalition into place, that is not always straightforward. but it could take weeks or months for a new government to be formed. angela merkel has not given her last orders yet. probably worth emphasising that as wejoin you here on probably worth emphasising that as we join you here on the beautiful early evening in berlin that angela merkel is not going anywhere just yet. she is still chancellor and will remain chancellor into a coalition as agreed. that then forms itself within the bundestag and elects a chancellor. in theory they

could do that in the next couple of days once results come through but in reality we are at the start of fierce negotiation which many expect to be months rather than weeks. when the new chancellor emerges it is a moment of huge significance for germans because angela merkel has beenin germans because angela merkel has been in charge for 16 years but also for europe. this country has the biggest economy within the eu so arguably the most powerful country in the eu along with france and whoever is in charge will have a huge impact on the major policy decisions opening up for the eu in the coming years. it is also crucial for how the world response to climate change, germany the biggest emitter within the eu. it has to take further action on climate change, acknowledged by all of the candidates but that is an issue around timing so with coal, the cdu wants to stop coal in 2038, the greens want it in 2030. these issues

will have to be thrashed out. let's talk about this further now with a german political analyst with me in berlin. i guess it is those kinds of details, for instance on call, we are all the parties will have to give ground and compromise. that will be fairly _ give ground and compromise. that will be fairly straightforward on symbolic issues such as phasing out coal because ultimately we will get rid of— coal because ultimately we will get rid of coal— coal because ultimately we will get rid of coal when cold no longer becomes— rid of coal when cold no longer becomes economical and if we move ahead _ becomes economical and if we move ahead with _ becomes economical and if we move ahead with an ambitious climate agenda. — ahead with an ambitious climate agenda, then it is likely to be the case _ agenda, then it is likely to be the case much — agenda, then it is likely to be the case much before 2038. at all the issues _ case much before 2038. at all the issues you — case much before 2038. at all the issues you have mentioned will be part and _ issues you have mentioned will be part and parcel of these negotiations and countries around europe _ negotiations and countries around europe will be looking up how the potential— europe will be looking up how the potential coalition deal with nato, with the _ potential coalition deal with nato, with the issue of nuclear sharing, where _ with the issue of nuclear sharing, where we — with the issue of nuclear sharing, where we need to have a decision pretty— where we need to have a decision

pretty soon, so this is all up in the air— pretty soon, so this is all up in the air and _ pretty soon, so this is all up in the air and on the table, if you well _ the air and on the table, if you well. �* �* . . ~ the air and on the table, if you well. �* �*, ., ,, ., well. and let's talk about the evolution _ well. and let's talk about the evolution of i well. and let's talk about the evolution of german i well. and let's talk about the evolution of german politicsl well. and let's talk about the i evolution of german politics now angela merkel is gone. i spoke to someone on thursday saying she has tranquilize to german politics and made it so calm it is as though they have forgotten how to have fierce political debates and all the parties are now working out who they are now she is leaving. [30 parties are now working out who they are now she is leaving.— are now she is leaving. do you think that is fair? — are now she is leaving. do you think that is fair? we i are now she is leaving. do you think that is fair? we had i are now she is leaving. do you think that is fair? we had lively i are now she is leaving. do you think that is fair? we had lively debates l that is fair? we had lively debates after 2015— that is fair? we had lively debates after 2015 when angela merkel took quite a _ after 2015 when angela merkel took quite a strong stance on refugees, so it is— quite a strong stance on refugees, so it is not— quite a strong stance on refugees, so it is not fair to say that she totally — so it is not fair to say that she totally was able to tranquilize german— totally was able to tranquilize german politics, although in i sense it was— german politics, although in i sense it was her_ german politics, although in i sense it was her intention but we have seen _ it was her intention but we have seen a — it was her intention but we have seen a fairly lively debate between the major— seen a fairly lively debate between the major party candidates and i think— the major party candidates and i think it — the major party candidates and i think it is — the major party candidates and i think it isjust the world the major party candidates and i think it is just the world will make sure german politics is not tranquilize because this whole angela — tranquilize because this whole angela merkel german model of an export— angela merkel german model of an export led — angela merkel german model of an export led economy, very soft

position— export led economy, very soft position on china, that is no longer sustainable — position on china, that is no longer sustainable. i do think german politics— sustainable. i do think german politics needs to make choices, needs— politics needs to make choices, needs to — politics needs to make choices, needs to make choices under increasing budgetary constraints, and that— increasing budgetary constraints, and that will make sure german politics— and that will make sure german politics will notjust and that will make sure german politics will not just cruise along and a _ politics will not just cruise along and a mellow way. politics will notjust cruise along and a mellow way.— and a mellow way. speaking of choices, and a mellow way. speaking of choices. 2 _ and a mellow way. speaking of choices, 2 months— and a mellow way. speaking of choices, 2 months ago i and a mellow way. speaking of choices, 2 months ago we i and a mellow way. speaking of. choices, 2 months ago we spoke and a mellow way. speaking of i choices, 2 months ago we spoke of 3 possible replacements, 3 people who could become chancellor. if these exit polls are correct with the union in the middle 20s, the spd middle 20s and the greens 15, does that rule out angelina bareback as a possible chancellor?— possible chancellor? exactly, she is out. the possible chancellor? exactly, she is out- the race _ possible chancellor? exactly, she is out. the race over— possible chancellor? exactly, she is out. the race over the i possible chancellor? exactly, she is out. the race over the past i possible chancellor? exactly, she is out. the race over the past weeks l out. the race over the past weeks hasiust_ out. the race over the past weeks hasjust been about out. the race over the past weeks has just been about whether it is armin— has just been about whether it is armin laschet or olaf scholz is a chancellor — armin laschet or olaf scholz is a chancellor for the rest of europe. they— chancellor for the rest of europe. they are — chancellor for the rest of europe. they are both pro— european, very strongly— they are both pro— european, very strongly believe in the project of the european union, so either way it

will not _ the european union, so either way it will not be _ the european union, so either way it will not be a — the european union, so either way it will not be a catastrophic outcome for the _ will not be a catastrophic outcome for the rest — will not be a catastrophic outcome for the rest of the european union. i for the rest of the european union. i attended — for the rest of the european union. i attended 2 small town halls with olaf scholz yesterday and i was fascinated to see how calm and consistency was, never raised his hands are told anyjokes, he played it very straight. he likes to think of himself and wouldn't mind the characterisation. he has a long—term ambitious plan for germany and angela merkel mostly took care of the crises that ended on her desk. he wants to raise minimum wage and has an ambitious agenda for making sure german industry achieves the low carbon transition, he wants to make housing more affordable. so he does have a longer term plan on public investment for germany, but he will continue with, i think angela merkel sent the gold standard for governing with integrity and

calm and with competence and i think any successor will try to emulate but is does just that germans didn't really believe that armin laschet brings those qualities to the table or at least not enough. can i ask you about german industry because in their different ways, armin laschet and olaf scholz have said there needs to be an industrial revolution. germany needs to completely reimagine their industry and make it betterfor climate change, can politicians force that through? is german industry ready to make that change because i imagine if it is not? . . make that change because i imagine if it is not? , . , , if it is not? german industry, the german car— if it is not? german industry, the german car industry i if it is not? german industry, the german car industry was i if it is not? german industry, the german car industry was fairly i if it is not? german industry, the l german car industry was fairly slow to make _ german car industry was fairly slow to make that change. the}r german car industry was fairly slow to make that change.— german car industry was fairly slow to make that change. they have got the memo- — to make that change. they have got the mm the _ to make that change. they have got the memo. the penny i to make that change. they have got the memo. the penny has i to make that change. they have got the memo. the penny has dropped. j to make that change. they have got i the memo. the penny has dropped. and the memo. the penny has dropped. and the coming 5— 10 years will determine whether germany is still a major— determine whether germany is still a major industrial country that is competitive in global markets. the government wants to help them speed up government wants to help them speed up the _ government wants to help them speed up the transition, make sure that it

is enough _ up the transition, make sure that it is enough investment to produce carbon— is enough investment to produce carbon neutral steel in germany, and ithink— carbon neutral steel in germany, and i think you _ carbon neutral steel in germany, and i think you have fairly open doors on the _ i think you have fairly open doors on the side — i think you have fairly open doors on the side of industry to really work— on the side of industry to really work together with the government to achieve _ work together with the government to achieve that transition any productive way. we achieve that transition any productive way.— achieve that transition any productive way. achieve that transition any roductive wa . ~ ., ., , productive way. we will have to see how that goes. _ productive way. we will have to see how that goes, and i productive way. we will have to see how that goes, and on i productive way. we will have to see how that goes, and on climate i how that goes, and on climate change, to what degree well that have to be negotiated with any coalition? i know all the parties have laid out their plans but presumably they will have to change, a new plan will have to emerge with the new coalition?— the new coalition? exactly, the rice of the new coalition? exactly, the price of carbon, i the new coalition? exactly, the price of carbon, the i the new coalition? exactly, the price of carbon, the kind i the new coalition? exactly, the price of carbon, the kind of- price of carbon, the kind of exceptions being made for large polluters — exceptions being made for large polluters and so on, those things. also the _ polluters and so on, those things. also the way you compensate, for example. — also the way you compensate, for example, people with fairly low income — example, people with fairly low income for the rising costs of heating — income for the rising costs of heating or housing. those things need _ heating or housing. those things need to— heating or housing. those things need to be — heating or housing. those things need to be hammered out but i don't think it _ need to be hammered out but i don't think it is _ need to be hammered out but i don't think it is totally impossible to find a —

think it is totally impossible to find a compromise between either coalition— find a compromise between either coalition option.— coalition option. thank you very much indeed — coalition option. thank you very much indeed for i coalition option. thank you very much indeed for the i coalition option. thank you very much indeed for the moment. l coalition option. thank you very l much indeed for the moment. we coalition option. thank you very i much indeed for the moment. we are just digesting these exit polls in germany. a little bit of variation but essentially they took to be big 2 parties, the centre left, social democrats and a tie in the mid 20s, greens and 15%, free—market liberals around greens and15%, free—market liberals around 11— greens and 15%, free—market liberals around 11— 12, the far right greens and15%, free—market liberals around 11— 12, the far right 10— greens and 15%, free—market liberals around 11— 12, the far right 10— 11% are nota around 11— 12, the far right 10— 11% are not a great day for the far left hovering around 5%. none of these parties can do it alone, probably not withi parties can do it alone, probably not with 1 party but my partner, probably looking at a coalition of 3. we can speak to the former german ambassador to the uk. what is your reaction to the exit poll? i ambassador to the uk. what is your reaction to the exit poll?— reaction to the exit poll? i think we all had _ reaction to the exit poll? i think we all had hoped i reaction to the exit poll? i think we all had hoped that i reaction to the exit poll? i think we all had hoped that we i reaction to the exit poll? i think we all had hoped that we would | reaction to the exit poll? i think i we all had hoped that we would see clearer today but it looks as though we will have to wait weeks if not months before we know who will be the next chancellor. angela merkel

is going to step down now will probably be in the chair kicking position for the next weeks or months until we find out how a 3—way coalition can be formed. months until we find out how a 3-way coalition can be formed.— coalition can be formed. there was a lot of talk during i coalition can be formed. there was a lot of talk during this i coalition can be formed. there was a lot of talk during this campaign i lot of talk during this campaign that it was the climate change election. do you think that is really being seen in the exit poll? the greens have gained a lot and so climate change has become, i think, the most important topic in these elections, but there are many other issues, and we should not forget that germany now is in a situation where many other concerns are raised. it is a situation with many lines of division as in other western countries, with the division between rich and poor, the middle

class slowly disappearing, division between walk people and anti— walk groups. dash—mac woke. the division between young and old. so the situation is a bit uneven now here and the 3—way coalition could be less stable than the traditional 2—way coalition we have seen in the past. 2-way coalition we have seen in the ast. �* ., ., 2-way coalition we have seen in the ast.�* ., , ., 2-way coalition we have seen in the ast.: ., , ., , past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the _ past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the us, _ past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the us, you i past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the us, you know- past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the us, you know a i past. and ambassador, you served in the uk and the us, you know a great| the uk and the us, you know a great deal about germany's role in the world. with angela merkel leaving the global stage, how important do you think this could be in the setting germany's position within notjust europe but at setting germany's position within not just europe but at the setting germany's position within notjust europe but at the top table of world powers? the notjust europe but at the top table of world powers?— of world powers? the row and the influence angela i of world powers? the row and the influence angela merkel i of world powers? the row and the influence angela merkel could i of world powers? the row and the i influence angela merkel could muster over the last 3 years has been gained over the years. when she came

to office in 2005, she was an unknown quantity and she had to work hard to get this sort of influence, personal influence and connections, which she finally found, sol personal influence and connections, which she finally found, so i think the same thing is going to happen again. it will start slowly. i don't expect any radical changes either from armin laschet or a possible chancellor olaf scholz. both would stand for 8 traditional policy line here in germany and i wouldn't be surprised if either of them, whoever becomes chancellor, would try to gain a foothold along the lines that angela merkel has beforehand. find angela merkel has beforehand. and finall , angela merkel has beforehand. and finally, ambassador, who would you like to be the next chancellor? personally, i am a diplomat, sol would say i am happy with both but it looks to me as if olaf scholz is

the more probable candidate because he would need the support of the greens and the liberals and the greens and the liberals and the greens have made it clear that they would have a tendency to prefer the social democrats and the liberals in the end i think cannot refuse again to make the formation of a government impossible. to make the formation of a covernment imossible. �* , ., government impossible. ambassador, thank ou government impossible. ambassador, thank you very — government impossible. ambassador, thank you very much i government impossible. ambassador, thank you very much indeed. i government impossible. ambassador, thank you very much indeed. former. thank you very much indeed. former german ambassador to the uk and to the us. this is interesting. a line from the spd, the social democrats. 1 exit poll puts them level with the cdu- csu. 1 exit poll puts them level with the cdu— csu. another gives them a 2—point lead. they have now put out a statement saying, we have a clear mandate to govern, we have fought our way back as the spd. the spd is back and clearly has the mandate to govern. just to be absolutely clear,

and these are pictures from the spd, the red and white that we see in many centre—left parties across europe, no sign of olaf scholz, candidate for chancellor and if he speaks we will hear from him, but the statement is fascinating and the reason that matters is not so much that the spd does have a mandate to govern, because it doesn't make any difference who comes top, it makes a difference who comes top, it makes a difference whether you have a coalition with 50% over within the bundestag, but the reason this matters is also a public debate with parties trying to win the discussion with germans that they are the ones who have a moral right in order to form a coalition. we can expect an awful lot of manoeuvring in public from the different parties as they try to say, we are still very much in the game, so don't expect the cdu, even if it is1 point behind, to come out and say they have got it. it is not how it works at all. it is all about who can get 50% and

that may well involve 3 parties, it will certainly involve twomack. and to explain how coalition works, because you can't enjoy and understand german politics without getting into the detail of coalition building, i made this quick report to explain some of the options. when germans sit around the table and talk politics they don'tjust discuss parties, policies and personalities, they also talk about coalitions, because as all the leaders on the wall here well understood. if you want to form a new government in germany you have to work with your rivals. to make talking about coalitions easier they use names based on colours. let me explain. red is for the social democrats, centre—left, black is for the cdu and the sister party csu in bavaria, centre right. then you have the green party, yellow, free—market liberals. and the other red is the

far left die linke party. blue is the far right afd. we can discount them because none of the others will work with it, but the 5 remaining parties are all relevant to a coalition that could emerge. option 1 is the germany coalition with the social democrats, red, union black, and on top of that the free—market liberals yellow. they have got a lot in common on foreign policy but on taxes and health care don't necessarily agree. 0ur taxes and health care don't necessarily agree. our next option almost happened after the 2017 election but the deal couldn't be done, the jamaica coalition. and that you have the cdu csu, the greens and the free—market liberals. another possibility is the kenya coalition and then that he would have the social democrats again, the cdu- csu, but this

have the social democrats again, the cdu— csu, but this time with the greens. these are the 3 party is polling top, which raises questions about the strength of any opposition to this coalition. 0ur about the strength of any opposition to this coalition. our next possibility is the traffic light. and that you have read for social democrats, yellow of the free—market liberals, but this time you have the greens as well. they have a lot of common ground but differences on social policy and taxes. they have to get over that if they are to form the governing coalition. those are 4—mac options and there are many more, which is why even when we have a result, that isjust more, which is why even when we have a result, that is just the start of the process. the negotiations begin and it will only be win a coalition is formed that we know who will replace angela merkel. did you manage to keep up with all of that? it can get quite complicated in german politics. once you understand the different combinations and policies these parties want it becomes absolutely fascinating

because it is all about the type of government that will emerge and the kind of government is notjust relevant to germans. think about germany's power, 1 of the biggest economies in the world, arguably the most influential power within the european union which is in itselfi of the biggest trading blocs. this is a country that matters to all of us, notjust germans, and that is why the nature of the next coalition matters. before i show you the exit polls lets go to the headquarters of the greens, we think they have around 15% of the exit polls, let's see what is being said. around 1596 of the exit polls, let's see what is being said. translation: the numbers — see what is being said. translation: the numbers are _ see what is being said. translation: the numbers are just i see what is being said. translation: the numbers are just fantastic i see what is being said. translation: the numbers are just fantastic so i the numbers are just fantastic so congratulations, even if we don't know the final result yet, and the news from mecklenburg, west pomerania is great. and thank you very much to all of you, from robert and me. we have 120,000 members and

we represent them, thank you to everyone and they are name. we had a fantastic campaign, as never before. we campaigned until last night around the clock, so many others worked really hard. we had so many town halls with thousands of people, and you prepared all that, all these town halls, that was really fantastic, and every where we were able to appear together, those were special moments. in frankfurt and also at the end in this order. and we also saw many people who are not members of the green party.

so we have gone away from the green party headquarters but let's immediately hear from the cdu and its candidate. translation: yes, ladies and gentlemen, dearfriends, translation: yes, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, today translation: yes, ladies and gentlemen, dearfriends, today is translation: yes, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, today is a very special— gentlemen, dear friends, today is a very special election night. for the 1st very special election night. for the ist time _ very special election night. for the ist time in — very special election night. for the 1st time in 16 years, angela merkel was not _ 1st time in 16 years, angela merkel was not a _ 1st time in 16 years, angela merkel was not a candidate for chancellor.

we had _ was not a candidate for chancellor. we had iti— was not a candidate for chancellor. we had 16 good years with her so 1st of all— we had 16 good years with her so 1st of all i _ we had 16 good years with her so 1st of all i would like to thank the chancellor angela merkel for her good _ chancellor angela merkel for her good work. but it was very clear for us, without _ but it was very clear for us, without the chancellor bonus, this will be _ without the chancellor bonus, this will be a _ without the chancellor bonus, this will be a very difficult and tight campaign and election race and this is exactly— campaign and election race and this is exactly what happened. it was a very close — is exactly what happened. it was a very close race. this election night is an— very close race. this election night is an exceptional situation. we have no final—

is an exceptional situation. we have no final results, no confirmed figures. — no final results, no confirmed figures, but we can already say that we are _ figures, but we can already say that we are not— figures, but we can already say that we are not happy with the results so far. nevertheless, the end result is still open. — far. nevertheless, the end result is still open, it will be a very long night — still open, it will be a very long night the _ still open, it will be a very long night. the election results brings up night. the election results brings up big _ night. the election results brings up big challenges for all the parties. _ up big challenges for all the parties, for the conservatives, for the country— parties, for the conservatives, for the country and all other parties. and no— the country and all other parties. and no party alone can face these challenges. so all democrats will have to _ challenges. so all democrats will have to make an effort, we have to overcome _ have to make an effort, we have to overcome differences and keep germany— overcome differences and keep germany together. forthe overcome differences and keep germany together. for the 1st time there _ germany together. for the 1st time there will— germany together. for the 1st time there will probably be a national government with 3 coalition

partners. and we the conservatives were _ partners. and we the conservatives were told _ partners. and we the conservatives were told by our voters that a vote for the _ were told by our voters that a vote for the conservatives as against a left—leaning government. and therefore, therefore we will do everything we can to form a government with the conservatives in the lead. _ government with the conservatives in the lead, because germany, germany needs— the lead, because germany, germany needs a _ the lead, because germany, germany needs a coalition for the future that will— needs a coalition for the future that will modernise our country. germany— that will modernise our country. germany needs a coalition for more sustainability in every aspect. for

climate _ sustainability in every aspect. for climate as— sustainability in every aspect. for climate as well as finances. we are responsible — climate as well as finances. we are responsible for future generations, for our— responsible for future generations, for our children and grandchildren. and we _ for our children and grandchildren. and we need to meet that responsibility and fulfil it especially when it comes to climate change _ especially when it comes to climate change. we need a coalition that will speed — change. we need a coalition that will speed up and the digitalised our country and that will unshackle our country and that will unshackle our country — our country and that will unshackle our country when it comes to planning _ our country when it comes to planning and approval procedures. we need a _ planning and approval procedures. we need a coalition that is open to the world _ need a coalition that is open to the world and — need a coalition that is open to the world. and that stands for market—based solutions. a coalition that will— market—based solutions. a coalition that will strengthen europe and that will work— that will strengthen europe and that will work together with other democracies in the world to face the challenges — democracies in the world to face the challenges. and we need to make a contribution towards a better world.

that is what i will work for, together— that is what i will work for, together with marcus so there, together— together with marcus so there, together with marcus so there, together with our entire team, and in this— together with our entire team, and in this coalition, every partner will have — in this coalition, every partner will have to find a place, will have to find _ will have to find a place, will have to find a _ will have to find a place, will have to find a place with their priorities. it will have to be a coalition— priorities. it will have to be a coalition that will keep the country together— coalition that will keep the country together and where everybody can implement what they promise their voters _ implement what they promise their voters i_ implement what they promise their voters. i would like to congratulate everyone _ voters. i would like to congratulate everyone for the election results and thank— everyone for the election results and thank them for a campaign that was largely fair, and i would like to thank— was largely fair, and i would like to thank all campaign workers in the

south _ to thank all campaign workers in the south in _ to thank all campaign workers in the south in the — to thank all campaign workers in the south in the north, in east and west — south in the north, in east and west this— south in the north, in east and west. this was a great final run. we really— west. this was a great final run. we really cut— west. this was a great final run. we really cut up — west. this was a great final run. we really cut up. you did great work, you never— really cut up. you did great work, you never gave up, and that is also what _ you never gave up, and that is also what motivates me and motivates us for the _ what motivates me and motivates us for the future. the election campaign is over now we need to— the election campaign is over now we need to build a stable coalition for a strong _ need to build a stable coalition for a strong and modern germany. and the person— a strong and modern germany. and the person who _ a strong and modern germany. and the person who can bring together

differences will be the next chancellor and create a programme for the _ chancellor and create a programme for the next policy programme for the next _ for the next policy programme for the next 4 — for the next policy programme for the next 4 years. the chancellor will be the 1 who can overcome _ the chancellor will be the 1 who can overcome these differences within the bundestag and we need a chancellor that will be a chancellor for everyone who lives in germany. that is _ for everyone who lives in germany. that is our— for everyone who lives in germany. that is our task that lies ahead, there _ that is our task that lies ahead, there will— that is our task that lies ahead, there will be many discussions with there will be many discussions with the different competing parties in the different competing parties in the next — the different competing parties in the next few days, and the next chancellor — the next few days, and the next chancellor must develop a project that is— chancellor must develop a project that is long—term, that will last beyond — that is long—term, that will last beyond the next few weeks, and i am

ready— beyond the next few weeks, and i am ready for— beyond the next few weeks, and i am ready for thatjob. applause. and with that, armin laschet departs the stage to the right, appropriately, and that was absolutely fascinating because just absolutely fascinating because just a few minutes ago i read your statement from the spd, the social democrats, saying we have a mandate

to govern and we predicted that it probably wasn't the only party who would be saying that and sure enough armin laschet come straight out and says that is a vote for us to form a government with others and to get on with the work that we think it is important for germany so this is where the manoeuvring happens, not just behind these, looking at a 3—way coalition for the 1st time in many years. that is significant because the only way there will be 2 parties as if the sdp and the cdu work together. at last time around they were not keen either and after 5 months they gave up so don't rule it out but it is interesting to hear the cdu saying we think it will be a 3—way coalition. lots of emphasis on climate which was interesting because it has been a criticism accepted by seniorfigures in because it has been a criticism accepted by senior figures in the cdu that this party and angela

merkel�*s government, that she has led over the last 16 years, has not done enough on climate change. that is the cdu saying no, we take this seriously. bearing in mind, armin laschet knows that if he is to make good progress with coalition building he probably needs of the greens to be part of the equation so bear all the messaging in mind, not just talking to us watching and not just talking to us watching and not just turning to germans but talking to each other as well. also and this was fascinating, and emphasis on the digital transformation of the german economy. you could think that was not that significant but you have to bearin not that significant but you have to bear in mind the free—market liberals at around 11— i2%, they are big on emphasising a proper digitalisation of the german economy, so a message for germans but also a message for potential coalition partners. there are layers to this, it is fascinating is the german political process kicks from the resultant to the negotiating stage. let's have a look at the

let's have a look at the exit poll. things are tight. this was the first one that we showed you a few minutes back now. that shows a dead heat between the union. i'm going to stop talking about this, because we think olaf scholz, leader of the social democrats, one of the two men who could have a realistic chance of replacing angela merkel is about to start talking. let's have a look. applause.

translation: dear friends. .. applause.

dear friends, dearfriends, i dear friends, i am dearfriends, i am very happy dear friends, i am very happy to see so many of you here, and of course i am very happy about the election results, and that the voters voted for, they decided, that the social democratic party is going up, and thatis democratic party is going up, and that is a fantastic success.

this will be a very long election night, that is for sure, but what is also certain is that many voters voted for the spd, and they wanted a change in government, and they want next of this country to be olaf scholz. we campaigned for more respect in our society, we are committed to modernising industry, and we want to stop climate change. those are the three big goals that we need to work for and the next few years. and that is what we are committed to. but that dust as possible and that the pores have been so positive, and that the spd has been supported by voters, that

as a matter that everything discussed in this campaign will be implemented, and we will be politically strong to push all these things through. but at this point, i would also like to say thank you to all the voters, the citizens of this country, who voted for me and the party to allow this election result. and i would also like to say, is one of 40,000 members of the spd, to all those who worked on our behalf and made this possible. applause.

we area we are a pragmatic party, who knows how to govern. we are a confident party, and we are committed to bringing about a better future for germany. but we have also shown that we have the know—how to govern a country, to bring the country together. and i would like to thank you for that as well. pragmatism, confidence, and unity. that is what we will show you in the

future. and i am certain that these citizens will be happy with the decision they have made when they voted for the social democrats. and thatis voted for the social democrats. and that is also something that we promise. cheering.

so, now we are waiting for the final result, and then we will start working. thank you very much. chanting. mar, a rapturous reception for olaf scholz, leader of the spd, or i should say candidate chancellor, because you have leadership of a political party but then the party

packs its candidate. olaf scholz is very much that. everyone looks very happy. very much that. everyone looks very happy, lots of cheering, and i am not for a minute suggesting that is insincere, but we sought the same thing at the cdu, because the two biggest parties of german politics, the social democrats on the centre—left and the christian democratic union, angela merkel�*s party, the centre right, along with their sister party, the csu, in bavaria. they are very close. one exit polls gives the sdp a slight lead, another gives a dead heat. both parties trying to create momentum, trying to say to potential coalition partners and two germans, we have the agenda, we have momentum, we should be forming a coalition. take everything we are seeing from both headquarters in that context. that speak to a politician for the social democratic party. thank you for your time. what is your reaction to these exit

polls? this has been a really good election evening for us, because we came prepared with the last actions in 2017, and we started off with election polls at 14% in the middle ofjuly. and there we are at 25%. for the conservative party, this is the worst result after world war ii, so there is a very clear winner, and evenif so there is a very clear winner, and even if it is very tight the result tonight, we will have to wait for a long time until the end, yet there is a clear winner, and that is the social democratic party, under candidate for change. we will have to see. the exit polls don't suggest a clear winner, they suggest that this is very close to being a dead heat. is that a disappointment, given that the spd was leading and a

lot of the polls in the last two bits? ., ., ., ., ., ., ., bits? no, not at all. you have to see where _ bits? no, not at all. you have to see where we — bits? no, not at all. you have to see where we came i bits? no, not at all. you have to see where we came from. i bits? no, not at all. you have to see where we came from. not i bits? no, not at all. you have to i see where we came from. not only the last election result, compared with 2017, our numbers go up, and the numbers for the conservatives go down. very much so. and also, just to go back to the beginning of this election campaign, injuly, the pores had us at 14%, and now we are at 25. this is a real good evening for the sdp, and it may be close, and we need a three party government coalition, but to deter from clear that it should be under the leadership of olaf scholz and not the loser of this election, who is armin laschet.— the loser of this election, who is armin laschet. �*, ., ,, ., ., armin laschet. let's talk about what that three party _ armin laschet. let's talk about what that three party coalition i armin laschet. let's talk about what that three party coalition could i armin laschet. let's talk about what that three party coalition could be. l that three party coalition could be. i find that three party coalition could be. ifind it that three party coalition could be. i find it quite easy to imagine the social democrats and the greens

working together, they have some common ground. but the free—market liberals, led by christian lindner, they very much opposed to tax rises. your party would like to raise taxes. what are you going to do about that?— taxes. what are you going to do about that? their parties have to take that into i about that? their parties have to take that into the i about that? their parties have to take that into the deliberation i about that? their parties have to i take that into the deliberation what they have said, so you need a compromise between different parties with different goals in different programmes. that is the task that lies ahead of us in the next weeks or months, and i'm very sure that the liberal party wants to be part of the government, and they need to partners is welcome and it may be difficult for us with the liberals, so it is difficult for the liberals with the greens. we will see what happens. as long as it is no majority for a 2—party coalition, we will need to build a government coalition with three partners, and thatis

coalition with three partners, and that is obviously difficult, but we have to solve it, and micro it is in the best position to do so, not only because of his government experience, but also because of the mandate behalf. — olaf scholz. remember, we have 5% than last time, and the conservatives lost at least 7%. and the conservatives lost at least 796. ., ~ and the conservatives lost at least 7%. ., ~ , ., and the conservatives lost at least 7%. ., ~ y and the conservatives lost at least 7%. ., y . ., 796. thank you very much indeed for 'oinin: 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us- — 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us- it — 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us- it is _ 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us. it is worth i 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us. it is worth adding i 796. thank you very much indeed for joining us. it is worth adding some i joining us. it is worth adding some context to these results. we have exit polls predicting very close to a dirty between the cdu, csu and the centre—right and the social democrats on the centre—left. four years ago, i was standing here and we were talking about angela merkel and the cdu taking 32%, they were the biggest party, and it was the worst result in decades. 32% is the

stuff of fantasies now. none of the party is getting close to that, and thatis party is getting close to that, and that is because we are seeing a further fragmentation of german politics, where parties like the greens and the free—market liberals are starting to score more heavily. but spring and our correspondence from the headquarters of the spd. it sounded quite raucous. it from the headquarters of the spd. it sounded quite raucous.— sounded quite raucous. it certainly was. as sounded quite raucous. it certainly was- as you _ sounded quite raucous. it certainly was. as you would i sounded quite raucous. it certainly was. as you would imagine, i sounded quite raucous. it certainly was. as you would imagine, the i was. as you would imagine, the speech went down extremely well, people barred by the food they have laid on, that is a for the sausages, and the barman is quite busy as well. as you can imagine, they were lapping up everything that olaf scholz said, but as you were suggesting, the politicians are sending messages to each other, really. interesting that the social democrats were not first out of the blocks, they were listening to what the conservative candidate was in,

and in the minutes that followed, point olaf scholz finally spoke, he talked about pragmatism, being optimistic but also a pragmatic party, a unified one, and it seemed to lots of people watching that he was channelling his inner angela merkel. the idea that she could be a continuity candidate. he served as her deputy, and she really hope she could be a steady hand on the tiller. it did go down well here, as you would expect. in tiller. it did go down well here, as you would expect.— tiller. it did go down well here, as you would expect. in terms of how the spd is — you would expect. in terms of how the spd is seeing i you would expect. in terms of how the spd is seeing this i you would expect. in terms of how the spd is seeing this result, i i the spd is seeing this result, i have just interviewed one politician who said, a couple of months ago, we won't know welcome and there we looked like we are top or may be joint top. this is that our people for you are seeing a question? for you are seeing a the joint top. this is that our people for you are seeing a— for you are seeing a the point it was interesting, i for you are seeing a the point it was interesting, because i for you are seeing a the point it was interesting, because a i for you are seeing a the point it| was interesting, because a week for you are seeing a the point it i was interesting, because a week ago, they thought they would be doing better. they were looking at the polls and seeing daylight between them and the conservatives, and it

seems that in the last few that gap has narrowed. maybe it was angela merkel at the last minute writing to the rescue having said she won't intervene in this campaign, really backing in her conservative candidate, so armin laschet could pick up votes over the last week or so. they mood was buoyant, people are happy, there are lots of smiles inside the place, which was extremely deafening, that is why we have come out to the lobby. people are in a good mood, but in the words of olaf scholz, it will be a very long night. he said it is clear to him germany wants him to be the next answer, but as ever, it is not going to be straightforward, and for the days and weeks to come, it could be a tricky business. just days and weeks to come, it could be a tricky business.— a tricky business. just for the moment. _ a tricky business. just for the moment, thank i a tricky business. just for the moment, thank you. it i a tricky business. just for the moment, thank you. it could | a tricky business. just for the i moment, thank you. it could be a long night, it could be a long few weeks and months, because there are going to be some fierce negotiations in the smaller parties demanding their price for coming into a

coalition. let mejust their price for coming into a coalition. let me just pause for a moment, because we have been talking about exit polls, showing youtube for the last hour or so. we now have a projection. this has come and while we were listening to the party leaders, and these are... listen to this. it is putting the spd on 24.9, and the cdu on 24.7, so .2 of a percentage points between the two biggest parties and then has a greens on 14.8, very close to what we were told the free—market liberals on 11, and die linke on fire. that was expected the far right also on 11%. those are first projection is largely in line with what the exit polls were sent, but one had given it separately to the social democrats and one didn't. the first project are suggesting this is as tight as it could possibly be.

not what all of the statements coming out matter so much, because the parties are trying to persuade germans, themselves, the smaller parties, they have the momentum, they have the best chance of forming a coalition. let's go to the cdu,... before that, let's hear from the candidates for chancellor for the green party, annalena baerbock. translation: we green party, annalena baerbock. translation:— green party, annalena baerbock. translation: we had a fantastic cam aiun translation: we had a fantastic campaign as _ translation: we had a fantastic campaign as never— translation: we had a fantastic campaign as never before, i translation: we had a fantastic campaign as never before, we i campaign as never before, we campaigned until last night, around the clock, so many of us worked really hard. we had so many town halls, with thousands of people, and you are prepared all that, all of these turn hows, this was really fantastic. �* . . these turn hows, this was really fantastic. �* , , ., fantastic. let's bring in a reporter- _ fantastic. let's bring in a reporter. they i fantastic. let's bring in a reporter. they could i fantastic. let's bring in a reporter. they could not| fantastic. let's bring in a i reporter. they could not stop

smiling on stage.— reporter. they could not stop smiling on stage. yeah, certain imaue of smiling on stage. yeah, certain image ofjubilation i smiling on stage. yeah, certain image ofjubilation and i smiling on stage. yeah, certain i image ofjubilation and euphoria. annalena baerbock and her co—leader were on the stage behind me just a few minutes ago, and they were so happy. few minutes ago, and they were so happy, because it was a solid result in line with what the predictions were saying before the election, they have also got options, and they are not really to be chancellor, that what has sold a few months ago. there was more of a realism came into the green party in the last few months, but it was all about getting into government as junior coalition partner. that is why there is is being greeted with greatjubilation by the green party. what they can now do is go right or go left, with a conservative cdu or to the centre—left spd. so, they are very flexible, they are looking very strong, and they say they are getting into government. the problem is, what did we want to do is get into government with the centre—left, the spd. every time the cd got a bad result and at the hall,

a big cheer went up. the greens are not rooting for the cdu, they are rooting for centre—left spd. that fits in with their ideology. they want to centre—left government. the next challenge is the third partner. that would potentially be the liberals, pro— market, pro—business, some similarities with the greens but not many. that is going to be a challenging combination to pull off. for people watching us all around the world, potter and the uk on the bbc news channel, lots of other channels on bbc world news, help us understand the green party in general, because this isn't some relative small campaign group with a couple of mps. this is a major part of mainstream german politics. that's right. they have already been in government with the centre—left spd at the beginning of 2,000 under gerhard schroeder. they have a foreign minister, they were a credible government partner. that was quite a successful government.

they have not been in government since the nasty, but they are in numerous regional governments come and they have a solid reputation. they have also become mainstream. backin they have also become mainstream. back in the '60s, they were antiestablishment, anti— nuclear, they would go on demos, they were quite a student —type group and how they looked and sounded. they have become really professional over the last few decades. the artist —like operation, and they have a message which really applies to younger people. that is why they are doing so well. they have also got strong leadership, jewel river strip, — dual leadership. they have brought the party together, because you have a fundamentalist bank and a pragmatic ring that kept the party out for quite a while. that has been resolved. they have come together, because the green so we have got to change society, and that is what they have certain that they are going to do by entering the next government. they are quite clear that they want power, and don't know what they want to do with it. — they

do know what to do with it. the numbers for — do know what to do with it. the numbers for the i do know what to do with it. the numbers for the two biggest parties in germany in the context of the last 15 years are exceptionally low. in 2017, angela merkel�*s cdu along with the csu got 32%. the biggest party, but the loss outcome in an election since the second world war. that was 32%, have a look at the exit polls and where we are seeing the conservatives now. projected on 25%, the projects and have them just a tiny bit below that. essentially the same. the spd come again the exit poll 25%, the projection is very close. then the greens on 15, the free—market liberals 11, marker

one, 11, die linke 5%. the projections, there is very little difference between that first exit poll and what the projections are saying. that may show you the second exit poll. a bit more variation here. this shows cdu/csu back on 24 with the spd with a 2% lead. that is not backed up by the projections at the moment. i'm very much the same, slight variations, but in the same ballpark. there is in the projection will change, that is because as more and more votes are counted, the projection evolves. the exit polls are fits, the projection evolves as account goes on. let me show you a third exit poll. germany has a number of them. you get an impression how tight dresses. you go. cdu/csu on 25, you get the idea.

reasonably consistent. we have an idea of the way this is going. that analyse this further with my guests. a climate scientist, member of scientists for the future, and we are also starjohn bitar soon, a political analyst. you authored a report sent none of these parties have a good enough plan for climate change. people might be surprised to hear that, especially with reference to the greens. hear that, especially with reference to the greens-— hear that, especially with reference to the greens. yeah, but the greens came very close _ to the greens. yeah, but the greens came very close to i to the greens. yeah, but the greens came very close to reach i to the greens. yeah, but the greens came very close to reach the i to the greens. yeah, but the greens came very close to reach the paris i came very close to reach the paris agreement targets, but the others have not. we were very surprised by the social democrats, who did not really provide an election programme showing how they would like to reach climate targets, which germany need to do. so, we will see at the end. i would say looking at these numbers,

climate protection is the biggest loser in this election, because right now the greens are quite low, and the others do not really provide and the others do not really provide a good enough programme... the greens have _ a good enough programme... the greens have a i a good enough programme... the greens have a lot of leverage. they can demand things from the big parties. can demand things from the big arties. . �* . can demand things from the big arties. . �*, , , ., parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens i parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens will i parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens will be i parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens will be in i parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens will be in the i parties. that's true. it depends on how the greens will be in the next j how the greens will be in the next government, probably there will be a coalition or not. it is also one option that the greens are not there, that climate protection is clearly the biggest loser. lhiere there, that climate protection is clearly the biggest loser. were you disappointed _ clearly the biggest loser. were you disappointed despite i clearly the biggest loser. were you disappointed despite the i clearly the biggest loser. were you disappointed despite the fact i clearly the biggest loser. were you i disappointed despite the fact people were talking about climate change all the time during the campaign that the parties were not more radical than the voters didn't support the parties with the most radical plans?— radical plans? yeah, i was quite disappointed — radical plans? yeah, i was quite disappointed not i radical plans? yeah, i was quite disappointed not only i radical plans? yeah, i was quite disappointed not only by i radical plans? yeah, i was quite disappointed not only by the i disappointed not only by the election programmes but also by the campaigns themselves, because in the general public, climate protection did not play a very large though, it should have been. it did not really show up, but we will see at the end

of the day, the greens are not that bad but could have been better. climate protection is a biggest goal and the major challenge in germany has. and the ma'or challenge in germany has. . and the ma'or challenge in germany has. , , ., ., has. help me understand how the sort. has. help me understand how the sport- can — has. help me understand how the sport- can the _ has. help me understand how the sport. can the greens i has. help me understand how the sport. can the greens demand i has. help me understand how the | sport. can the greens demand that the two bigger party as much into climate policy in exchange for a coalition? . , , , ., coalition? yeah, they will push for ambitious climate i coalition? yeah, they will push for ambitious climate goals i coalition? yeah, they will push for ambitious climate goals during i coalition? yeah, they will push for| ambitious climate goals during this coalition— ambitious climate goals during this coalition negotiation. i think claudia _ coalition negotiation. i think claudia will not be happy about the result. _ claudia will not be happy about the result, because she has a very ambitious _ result, because she has a very ambitious agenda, but the greens have a _ ambitious agenda, but the greens have a fairly strong mandate to push for more _ have a fairly strong mandate to push for more ambitious climate agenda than we _ for more ambitious climate agenda than we have seen over the past four years _ than we have seen over the past four years i_ than we have seen over the past four years ithink— than we have seen over the past four years. i think also public opinion is with— years. i think also public opinion is with armin laschet, he promised that the _ is with armin laschet, he promised that the greens could come in to his government— that the greens could come in to his government and he will deliver something on climate change. we will see. overall, ithink something on climate change. we will see. overall, i think the coalition negotiations are very much open air

i’ili'lt negotiations are very much open air right now _ negotiations are very much open air right now. one person we haven't heard _ right now. one person we haven't heard from — right now. one person we haven't heard from is the leader of the christian— heard from is the leader of the christian socialist union, and he has said if the csu ends up in the second _ has said if the csu ends up in the second spot, he wants a social democrats to form a government, so that would — democrats to form a government, so that would undercut armin laschet's options _ that would undercut armin laschet's options quite severely. but that would undercut armin laschet's options quite severely.— options quite severely. but mister laschet come _ options quite severely. but mister laschet come on i options quite severely. but mister laschet come on climate i options quite severely. but mister laschet come on climate change i laschet come on climate change committee was seeing through the campaign, i'm committed to this, but i cannot damage the german economy. so, the timetable has to be one that doesn't lose jobs or doesn't heart the german economy. he think the politicians have said, in the short term, this might heart us? germany has to be the _ term, this might heart us? germany has to be the climate i term, this might heart us? germany has to be the climate target, i term, this might heart us? germany has to be the climate target, and i has to be the climate target, and that means that the emission reduction it needs to be severe. there is no way out of it, so we have committed to the paris agreement, we have committed to the climate law in germany, and that means that the emissions need to go

down. we need to replace a call, we need a much faster increase in renewables. armin laschet did not provide enough answers, he was saying he would meet the targets but does not tell us how.— does not tell us how. before we go to the cdu. — does not tell us how. before we go to the cdu. you — does not tell us how. before we go to the cdu, you have i does not tell us how. before we go to the cdu, you have seen i does not tell us how. before we go to the cdu, you have seen the i to the cdu, you have seen the speeches from the two men who want to be chancellor. what did you think about the different messages? mister scholz was quite _ about the different messages? mister scholz was quite modest, i about the different messages? mister scholz was quite modest, it i about the different messages? mister scholz was quite modest, it is i about the different messages? mister scholz was quite modest, it is a i scholz was quite modest, it is a big triumph _ scholz was quite modest, it is a big triumph for— scholz was quite modest, it is a big triumph for him, because who would have thought two months ago that he would _ have thought two months ago that he would have a shot at the top spot and have — would have a shot at the top spot and have several options to form the government? but he was very modest and not _ government? but he was very modest and not too _ government? but he was very modest and not too triumphant, and said, i want— and not too triumphant, and said, i want to— and not too triumphant, and said, i want to lead — and not too triumphant, and said, i want to lead this country, i invite others _ want to lead this country, i invite others to— want to lead this country, i invite others tojoin a want to lead this country, i invite others to join a government led want to lead this country, i invite others tojoin a government led by the social— others tojoin a government led by the social democrats, whereas mister laschet. _ the social democrats, whereas mister laschet. he _ the social democrats, whereas mister laschet, he acknowledged it was not the best— laschet, he acknowledged it was not the best possible result, but he was quite _ the best possible result, but he was quite happy that he still has a shot — quite happy that he still has a shot he _ quite happy that he still has a shot. he is still in the game, and he is _ shot. he is still in the game, and he is also — shot. he is still in the game, and he is also fighting for his political survival. he doesn't have a return _

political survival. he doesn't have a return ticket, and on tuesday, they— a return ticket, and on tuesday, they cdu/csu parliamentary group will need _ they cdu/csu parliamentary group will need to decide whether the election— will need to decide whether the election as their leader. and that is pretty— election as their leader. and that is pretty much up in the air. the more _ is pretty much up in the air. the more you — is pretty much up in the air. the more you can state a claim to forming — more you can state a claim to forming a _ more you can state a claim to forming a government, the stronger his position — forming a government, the stronger his position gets. for forming a government, the stronger his position gets.— his position gets. for the moment, thank ou his position gets. for the moment, thank you very much i his position gets. for the moment, thank you very much indeed. i his position gets. for the moment, | thank you very much indeed. that's because a minute and consider where we have got to. we have a number of exit polls, and the two big parties, the cdu of angela merkel and the social democrats, are essentially neck and neck. the greens are performing much better than the last election, thrilled with the outcome, around 15%. we have free market liberals around i2%, they could be crucial. down a bit you have the far right, but no one is going to go into government with them, so it is important, it is not relevant for the next government. and then you have die linke on 5%, the way the numbers are looking, it is hard to see how they become particularly

crucial. really, we are focusing on, much weight to the greens want to go? which way to the ftp want to go? just to help you understand how this is going to play out, it will not get sorted out tonight. it is a strange situation for that new mps all come to town on tuesday, so you have a new parliament, but you don't have a new parliament, but you don't have a new parliament, but you don't have a new chancellor. angela merkel are still in charge, you only have a new chancellor when within that parliamentary coalition is formed, and then the elect father parliament the new chancellor. it could happen at any rate, or a month, the new chancellor. it could happen atany rate, ora month, might the new chancellor. it could happen at any rate, or a month, might not happen before christmas. we been talking about armin laschet, the candidate for the cdu. he has been speaking at their headquarters, reacting to these exit we

asa as a shifting protections to change now over the last few hours, is going to make the greens capital, because it is going to mean that it will possibly get into the coalition they want to go and. they want to be junior coalition

partner, and then you are going to have to have a 3rd partner in that, which could be the liberals. as the mostjunior partner in that coalition, the liberals wouldn't have as much weight, so the greens would feel they were the junior, so there will be some tough wrangling over the next few weeks and months, possibly. find over the next few weeks and months, ossibl . �* . . over the next few weeks and months, ossibl . �* ., , , ., ~ possibly. and as we speak, the numbers are — possibly. and as we speak, the numbers are changing, i possibly. and as we speak, the numbers are changing, spd i possibly. and as we speak, the i numbers are changing, spd have gone up numbers are changing, spd have gone up slightly, but nothing is guaranteed because those numbers are shifting. just guaranteed because those numbers are shiftinu, . .~ , guaranteed because those numbers are shiftinu. . ,' ., shifting. just quickly come up1 of the dynamics _ shifting. just quickly come up1 of the dynamics within i shifting. just quickly come up1 of the dynamics within a i shifting. just quickly come up1 of the dynamics within a coalition i the dynamics within a coalition negotiation in germany is that different parties ask for different roles. the set i've only come into the coalition if i get the finance ministry, the greens will not be

asking for the chancellorship, but what would they be asking for? fi what would they be asking for? natural fit, what would they be asking for? naturalfit, if what would they be asking for? natural fit, if they were the 2nd biggest party will be foreign ministry. they have done that before, they are very competent on foreign policy, they are quite hawkish, know what they are doing. the big fight would be over finance ministry. they liberals want finance ministry, so do the greens. they have opposite ends. that would be the fight, and it depends who can win that. that would be 1 of the stumbling blocks in the talks, and that could be printed a breakdown or work. worth watching, the fight over finance ministry. 50 work. worth watching, the fight over finance ministry.— finance ministry. so many interesting i finance ministry. so many interesting dynamics. i finance ministry. so many. interesting dynamics. thank finance ministry. so many- interesting dynamics. thank you finance ministry. so many— interesting dynamics. thank you very much for helping us with this, and you have publishing is talking over the last few days about the different coalition possibilities. we all have nicknames here in germany, like a canyon, traffic lights, germany. a number of this, all connected to the colours of the

different combinations. we will run you through some of the possibilities in the coming minutes, but let me show you an updated prediction stop let's be clear, this is not an exit poll, theirs is based on actual votes counted. and it is so close. this has been rounded up, but i can tell you the cdu is on 24.5, the spd on 24.9, so not even half a percentage point on it. the greens are closer to 14.5, the fdp on 11, and that's rounded to 12. again, it is not about the percentages, it is about how that translates to seats in the parliament, where the coalition is actually formed. this is what it looks like and see terms the spd would be the bigger party only buy 5 seats, the greens would be 17 seats

clear of the fdp, so those 2 and followed on by the fdp and the left. it would be the opposition? we cannot tell you, because it depends who goes into the coalition. there are any numbers of possibilities here because the reason it is so fascinating is that whatever possibility, whatever coalition emerges will have a profound impact on the core policies of the next german government and the next german government and the next german leader and issues from further integration from the eu, to how you approach defence in the of that new deal between the uk and australia and the us. the list goes on. what happens here matters a great deal to germs, europe and the rest of the world too. let's pick to the international editor of the new statesman magazine, and i don't know many people in the world who spend more time poring over the details of

german politics, so tonight is your world cup, really.— world cup, really. particularly civen world cup, really. particularly given that _ world cup, really. particularly given that the i world cup, really. particularly given that the resort i world cup, really. particularly given that the resort seems i world cup, really. particularly| given that the resort seems to world cup, really. particularly- given that the resort seems to be so close. i am struck by the amazing rollercoaster ride we have had over the last few months. 1st of all, it looked like the greens were surging, then we had the cdu and the csu, back into the loo, and then the most astonishing comeback by the social democrats, a party that many had largely written off under a leader that some people seem to have underestimated,, and who is the frontrunner to be the successor to angela merkel. frontrunner to be the successor to angela merkel-— angela merkel. some people said anuela angela merkel. some people said angela merkel— angela merkel. some people said angela merkel almost i angela merkel. some people said angela merkel almost took i angela merkel. some people said angela merkel almost took the i angela merkel almost took the politics out of politics. you think the reason this has been such a rollercoaster is that all the voters are trying to work out who they are and 4 others died in a world without angela merkel. and 4 others died in a world without angela merkel-— and 4 others died in a world without angela merkel. yeah, there is every -hrase angela merkel. yeah, there is every phrase called _

angela merkel. yeah, there is every phrase called asymmetric i phrase called asymmetric demobilisation, a posh way of saying that angela merkel the are signalled as german public. she removed the grievances with which opponents might build up allowances against her. she is stepping down, and it unleashed all these debates on these forces that have been held back in german politics, and we are seeing a surge in the green party support, we are seeing this transformative shirt and a balance between different parties, and we are seeing big debates about the future of germany, whether it is foreign policy, industrial model, social model. it is very exciting.— industrial model, social model. it is very exciting. there will be lots of --eole is very exciting. there will be lots of people watching i is very exciting. there will be lots of people watching who i is very exciting. there will be lots of people watching who don't i is very exciting. there will be lots i of people watching who don't follow german politics, but he seems to be a centralfigure, the leader of the free market led liberals. they will get 11 or i2%, but in the context of boarding coalitions, crucial. it looks like the kingmakers will be has a pro— democrat, pro—business, and the green party. she had the

chance to go into government at the last election in 2017, but walked out of those talks, causing great uproar here in the burden. that likely like he was joining angela merkel, then he is gone for another attempt, and this time he is very determined. we know he wants to be finance minister. the german finance ministry is the most powerful department other than the chancellor itself, and i think you will go for that very aggressively.— itself, and i think you will go for that very aggressively. people might sa , ou that very aggressively. people might say. you came _ that very aggressively. people might say, you came forth, i that very aggressively. people might say, you came forth, since i that very aggressively. people might say, you came forth, since when i that very aggressively. people might say, you came forth, since when do| say, you came forth, since when do you get to demand the 2nd biggest gig in the government?— gig in the government? exactly re , gig in the government? exactly pretty. isn't — gig in the government? exactly pretty. isn't the _ gig in the government? exactly pretty, isn't the most i gig in the government? exactly| pretty, isn't the most important thing. you don't have to come 1st to lead the government. can you build a coalition that wields a majority in the parliament? for coalition that wields a ma'ority in the parliament?i coalition that wields a ma'ority in the parliament? for the moment, thank you- — the parliament? for the moment, thank you. let's i the parliament? for the moment, thank you. let's bring i the parliament? for the moment, thank you. let's bring in i the parliament? for the moment, thank you. let's bring in a i thank you. let's bring in a politician for the cdu. thank you very much for speaking to us. what

is your reaction to the projections? of course we cannot be satisfied with this, break last minute percentage points, it is a historically low result for us, but still regained some points compared to the opinion polls from a few weeks ago, so at least we achieved that. it seems we are behind the social democrats, which is not good, but still we are so close that it is at least an option also to form a government under our readership. find government under our readership. and our government under our readership. and your candidate is the head of the state where you are speaking from, so you know him very well. do you think it was a mistake to choose him as a candidate? he has been very widely criticised.— widely criticised. now, i also had discussions _ widely criticised. now, i also had discussions with i widely criticised. now, i also had discussions with voters i widely criticised. now, i also had discussions with voters here, i widely criticised. now, i also hadj discussions with voters here, but mainly based on quite negative very 1—sided media coverage. i think we

have not succeeded in bringing through his record as a prime minister of the big estate in germany, where people on the streets and the last week said he, he does a good job here, but i don't want him as chancellor. that's a little irrational, he is accepted as a good prime minister but not by many people as a chancellor. in hindsight, you can always 2nd guess, but i think they were very good reasons to put up as a candidate. can i also ask you about climate change, because it looks like if the cdu is to form a government, it has to from that government with the greens. but lots of people look at angela merkel�*s 16 years and says she and the cdu just didn't do enough to get away from call, to address the challenges of climate change. how can dc do you convince the greens that they should work together? i the greens that they should work to . ether? ~ the greens that they should work touether? ~' ., ., ~'

the greens that they should work touether? ~' ., together? i think if we look at the facts from the i together? i think if we look at the facts from the last i together? i think if we look at the facts from the last years, i together? i think if we look at the facts from the last years, we i together? i think if we look at the facts from the last years, we did i together? i think if we look at the | facts from the last years, we did a lot of things when it comes to climate protection. i'm living at the fringes of the biggest brown coal mining area in western germany, and we have made the decision jointly, also beyond the present coalition, to move out of brown coal, open cast mining, in 2038, 7 years earlier than the previous government in the state had decided before. so, ithink government in the state had decided before. so, i think we have made some very important progress. this could always be quicker, and you look at the recent weather events, they might have to be quicker, but i think if your project there is a fairly, it is clear that also the christian democratic led government has done a lot of things when it comes to climate protection. there should be a common ground. thank you very much indeed forjoining us live on bbc news. we appreciated. if you're just on bbc news. we appreciated. if you'rejustjoining me in berlin, it has been a dramatic couple of hours,

because we are very close to a dead heat based on the current projections and there is a german election, with the social democrats and the cdu looking like they are very close to 25%. that and the cdu looking like they are very close to 2596.— and the cdu looking like they are very close to 2596. that spring and jeremy from _ very close to 2596. that spring and jeremy from the — very close to 2596. that spring and jeremy from the new i very close to 2596. that spring and jeremy from the new statesman i very close to 2596. that spring and i jeremy from the new statesman again. the match between the cdu and the greens doesn't look particularly easy 1, greens doesn't look particularly easyi, but greens doesn't look particularly easy 1, but am greens doesn't look particularly easy1,butam| greens doesn't look particularly easyi, butam i right to greens doesn't look particularly easy 1, but am i right to say that is the primary route to cover for the cdu? , , ., ., the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal— the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal with i the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal with the i the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal with the greens i the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal with the greens are i the cdu? yes, they would either have to do a deal with the greens are 1 i to do a deal with the greens are 1 with the social democrats, but the assumption that i mentioned previously it was at the greens and the ftp other kingmakers, and i think the greens will be very interested if it is a deal with the christian democrats and the fdp, because the parties of the centre—right, parties that are fiscally hawkish, and parties that have presided over policies at the green seat have not put germany but it needs to be with the cop26 climate talks coming up, as his

coalition talks take place, and that could be a real stumbling block. latte could be a real stumbling block. we are in the strange situation, even the wind out not the results, or what is likely to be closer to the result, we actually don't know what kind of policies are chancellor our government will pursue. they could end up in1 place or a different place. obviously, the exact results this evening do matter. it matters which party comes 1st, and eventually that party has a stronger claim to government, but it is not automatic. germany hasn't previously been covered by the 2nd largest party in the parliament, that was a case in the 19705. that is all a bit bothered you can build a coalition. so some of the most important conversations will be happening behind closed doors a5 parties talk and try to market where they can find compromises. thank you very much indeed. that's bringing some live pictures from the election

night program. this is where candidates from each party have to address what the exit poll determines. in other words, these candidates who have been fighting each other on the election show of books have to sit down and be civilised and talk at all 3. have a listen. translation: latte civilised and talk at all 3. have a listen. translation:— civilised and talk at all 3. have a listen. translation: we are ready to take on responsibility, i listen. translation: we are ready to take on responsibility, and i listen. translation: we are ready to take on responsibility, and we i listen. translation: we are ready to take on responsibility, and we have i take on responsibility, and we have done this in a number of states, and we have assured that it is correct. tonight is not a good night for us, and it is a very long night, but i do believe we will remain in the german parliament, and will continue to develop and come back stronger. nobody wants to enter into coalition with you, you have lost a vote. what is the reason for this? is this due to internal disputes? what do you think is the reason? we think is the reason? translation: we

are very satisfied _ think is the reason? translation: we are very satisfied with i think is the reason? translation: we are very satisfied with the i think is the reason? translation: we are very satisfied with the result, i are very satisfied with the result, we are _ are very satisfied with the result, we are double digits in the states. everyone — we are double digits in the states. everyone forecast that the afd is 'ust everyone forecast that the afd is just a _ everyone forecast that the afd is just a 1—time wonder, and that we would _ just a 1—time wonder, and that we would leave — just a 1—time wonder, and that we would leave the parliament after1 legislative period, but we have shown— legislative period, but we have shown that this is not true. we have very loyal— shown that this is not true. we have very loyal voters. because you are comparing today with the elections in 2017, we must say there _ the elections in 2017, we must say there is— the elections in 2017, we must say there is a — the elections in 2017, we must say there is a special effect because there _ there is a special effect because there is— there is a special effect because there is a — there is a special effect because there is a new party, the three voters. — there is a new party, the three voters, who have taken votes away from _ voters, who have taken votes away from us. _ voters, who have taken votes away from us. and — voters, who have taken votes away from us, and if we look at those special— from us, and if we look at those special effects and adjust for them, then we _ special effects and adjust for them, then we can say we will be above the result— then we can say we will be above the result of— then we can say we will be above the result of 2017 so we will have actually — result of 2017 so we will have actually improved. and of course

that is— actually improved. and of course that is proof of our good work in opposition— that is proof of our good work in opposition and the night is still long _ opposition and the night is still long we — opposition and the night is still long. we shall see what the results will bring _ long. we shall see what the results will bring tomorrow. we are fairly relaxed _ will bring tomorrow. we are fairly relaxed and we are actually in a good _ relaxed and we are actually in a good mood on entering into the next legislative _ good mood on entering into the next legislative period. olaf scholz, you will take _ legislative period. olaf scholz, you will take over from angela merkel. but you _ will take over from angela merkel. but you have achieved a very weak result if you become chancellor of germany? many did not decide to vote for you. germany? many did not decide to vote foryou. forthe germany? many did not decide to vote for you. for the first time a chancellor will have to share his power with twomack other parties, probably the greens and the free democrats. are you then a very weak cook with a very strong waiters?

this compares then with cooks and waiters, i think is wrong. i this compares then with cooks and waiters, i think is wrong.— waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink ou waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always— waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always have i waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always have to i waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always have to work i waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always have to work on i waiters, ithink is wrong. ithink you always have to work on the | waiters, i think is wrong. i think- you always have to work on the same level with your partners and you should try to bring things together that in the end our country moves forward. so it is notjust about leadership but the arithmetic self power are different. i would like to say that the current coalition also often seems like a coalition of three parties. therefore i already have some practice. but if we look around in the country around as this is the reality in many countries and so i think it will work, we need a

government that has realistic goals and works together, and if we want to move germany forward we want to also be elected together again. {lilia also be elected together again. ok, let's analyse — also be elected together again. ok, let's analyse a _ also be elected together again. ok, let's analyse a bit more. so how about red, green, red is not a possibility, but you also said that could be a possibility for the social democrats. was that a mistake to keep this possibility open? did you help the conservative election campaign? i you help the conservative election camaiun? ., �* ~' you help the conservative election cam-lain? ., �* ~' you help the conservative election camaiun? .,�* ~ . you help the conservative election camaiun? ., �* ~' ~ . campaign? i don't think so. we want the voters to — campaign? i don't think so. we want the voters to decide i campaign? i don't think so. we want the voters to decide which i campaign? i don't think so. we want the voters to decide which parties i the voters to decide which parties will be in the bundestag and how strong they are. we are not going to form the government months before the election. that would be disrespectful to the voters, and the

voters, the social democrats, have become much stronger, and it is also stronger than it has been in the polls in the last few weeks, so i think this is a very clear vote. there are a few parties see that the table who have made changes like the free democrats and the greens and many others have not seen stronger figures. armin laschet wants to become chancellor, you also want to become chancellor, you also want to become chancellor. so become chancellor, you also want to become chancellor.— become chancellor. so what will ha en if become chancellor. so what will happen if you — become chancellor. so what will happen if you don't i become chancellor. so what will happen if you don't become i happen if you don't become chancellor and our number two? what would you recommend to your party, stay in the opposition there become a junior partner in the social democratic government? and could you remain leader of the party in these circumstances? latte remain leader of the party in these circumstances?— remain leader of the party in these circumstances? we don't even have all the results i circumstances? we don't even have all the results yet, i circumstances? we don't even have all the results yet, we i circumstances? we don't even have all the results yet, we are i circumstances? we don't even have all the results yet, we are still- all the results yet, we are still waiting. — all the results yet, we are still

waiting, and today we realise only the party— waiting, and today we realise only the party that has a majority in parliament will become chancellor. so we _ parliament will become chancellor. so we need to look at what direction should _ so we need to look at what direction should the _ so we need to look at what direction should the country go into? what are the topics _ should the country go into? what are the topics that are important? and we shouldn't really discuss what should _ we shouldn't really discuss what should become if such and such happens. — should become if such and such happens, we should talk about that when _ happens, we should talk about that when that— happens, we should talk about that when that time comes. right now we need to— when that time comes. right now we need to look, how can we form a government in this situation? we are at the _ government in this situation? we are at the centre of europe. i think in the debates we spoke to a little about _ the debates we spoke to a little about europe and international politics. — about europe and international politics, but europe is looking at is to— politics, but europe is looking at is to see — politics, but europe is looking at is to see what will happen in germany _ is to see what will happen in germany. and the fact that we don't even know— germany. and the fact that we don't even know who will become chancellor on election— even know who will become chancellor on election night is something new. this has— on election night is something new. this has happened before, there will

only be one option. if this has happened before, there will only be one option.— only be one option. if the cdu is in second place. _ only be one option. if the cdu is in second place. l _ only be one option. if the cdu is in second place, ithink— only be one option. if the cdu is in second place, i think everybody i second place, i think everybody agrees — second place, i think everybody agrees the working style of this grand _ agrees the working style of this grand coalition is not possible. we really _ grand coalition is not possible. we really need a new start and that is not forced — really need a new start and that is not forced. the grand coalition was also not _ not forced. the grand coalition was also not the — not forced. the grand coalition was also not the wish of the social democrats in 2018. we also tried a different— democrats in 2018. we also tried a different coalition. so what will begin— different coalition. so what will begin now has to be something that different— begin now has to be something that different social currents come together _ different social currents come together and that will push this country— together and that will push this country forward. we need to bring together— country forward. we need to bring together the economy and the environment. but you are willing to

id environment. but you are willing to go into— environment. but you are willing to go into opposition. i always believe in being _ go into opposition. i always believe in being successful that things will work out _ in being successful that things will work out and i believe something good _ work out and i believe something good will— work out and i believe something good will happen for germany. and the three _ good will happen for germany. and the three democrats will be key and you have _ the three democrats will be key and you have bet more on a coalition with— you have bet more on a coalition with the — you have bet more on a coalition with the conservatives and the greens — with the conservatives and the greens. and what about a coalition with the _ greens. and what about a coalition with the social democrats and the greens? _ with the social democrats and the greens? ., , ., ., greens? could you live with that? you asked — greens? could you live with that? you asked about i greens? could you live with that? you asked about olaf i greens? could you live with that? you asked about olaf scholz i greens? could you live with that? you asked about olaf scholz and i greens? could you live with that? i you asked about olaf scholz and then you cited annalena baerbock. i have read all the party programmes and when you do that, you can see that we agree more with the conservatives and i have said that before the elections and i will say that

clearly after the elections. we don't agree with tax rises and the softening. we don't think that is acceptable. the next government will be much more environmentally friendly. we have to recognise that. with the greens. many people in country want a more environmentally friendly government and i also see that the free democrats have received a very good results because we are open to technology, because we are open to technology, because we stand for civil rights and for economic upswing.— we stand for civil rights and for economic upswing. what a tradition this is as part _ economic upswing. what a tradition this is as part of— economic upswing. what a tradition this is as part of the i economic upswing. what a tradition this is as part of the german i this is as part of the german election experience. after the polls close and we get the exit polls and the first projections, all of the leaders from the main parties who have spent the last few weeks tearing strips off each other have to sit down live on the tv and have

a really civil discussion with each other while being probed by a couple of tv presenters on who they might work with, and you will notice the dynamics are fascinating because none of them want to rule out anything because they don't know what combination of parties might shake down. the leader of the fdp, the free—market liberals, says it is no secret i am more comfortable with the conservatives than the greens. he didn't say, i will not go into coalition with the greens. then you see olaf scholz being complimentary about the greens, annalena baerbock sitting to his left. those are more natural bedfellows within a coalition and perhaps some of the other parties, but no one is being definitive because they know they may need to work with each other, and let's remember the context. this stage in the actual process back in 2017, everyone was saying there is this option that option and the option we ended up with was the

biggest parties, social democrats and the cdu, rivals, going into a grand coalition, which many didn't predict. so watch these people very carefully butjust remember they are not giving too much away and they know this evening as the start of some really fierce negotiations which will take place well away from the microphone is, well away from tv cameras, but absolutely fascinating to watch it play out. we are looking at either a dead heat between the social democrats and the centre—right cdu— csu or perhaps a slight lead for the social democrats but certainly not a knockout blow. either party will have to work with one and possibly two parties to form a coalition government, hence the sort of manoeuvrings we are seeing. let's speak to one party not in the next government, the afd, the far right, is polling around 10— 11% but no other party will work with it so it can't be part of a coalition. we can talk about it now, with an

expert on the german far right and on the afd. thank you forjoining u5 on the afd. thank you forjoining us on the afd. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. what is your reaction to the results for the afd? it is very much expected. they have moved marginally in the polls the last few years and so will probably face slight losses compared to 2017 but it is pretty much what everyone expected. and helpers understand how they are notjust expected. and helpers understand how they are not just talking about emigration now but are talking about masks and how germany deals with covid? l masks and how germany deals with covid? ~ . . masks and how germany deals with covid? ~ , , ., masks and how germany deals with covid? ~' , , ., , masks and how germany deals with covid? ~ , , ., , ., covid? i think this is a case of the far riaht covid? i think this is a case of the far right party _ covid? i think this is a case of the far right party trying _ covid? i think this is a case of the far right party trying to i covid? i think this is a case of the far right party trying to learn i covid? i think this is a case of the j far right party trying to learn from the success of trump and the international far right movement, so they have sort of imported these issues and aligned themselves with the lateral thinking is, covid

deniers and anti— factors in germany, but it is really not a new sector. anti—vaxxers. many voters are already critical of covid measures so it is not a new front, it is basically more of the same. latte it is basically more of the same. we have 'ust it is basically more of the same. we have just been listening to the afd representative in the tv show happening live on german tv at the moment. she was saying she was very happy at the outcome. do you think it is a correct assessment of how the selection has gone for them? absolutely not. i think they are hugely disappointed. they were used to making gains in every election they contested and have now sort of plateaued. i think there will be a period of reckoning in the party. the party is deeply divided between a wing that calls itself more moderate and the real radicals, and it has been struggling over the past

four years or so, sol it has been struggling over the past four years or so, so i am pretty sure the blame game will kick in pretty soon. sure the blame game will kick in pretty soon-— pretty soon. how close is the relationship _ pretty soon. how close is the relationship between i pretty soon. how close is the relationship between the i pretty soon. how close is the i relationship between the profile of theissue relationship between the profile of the issue of immigration and how well the afd does? does it remain primarily an anti—immigration party? it is primarily anti—immigration, the most important issue for the voters, but emigration has gone down the agenda. so if you look at what german voters care about, it used to be the number one issue in 2016, maybe even 2017, and now it's in fourth or fifth place. maybe even 2017, and now it's in fourth orfifth place. so it doesn't have the same mobilising effect for most german voters but it is still an all—important core electorate. the afd remains crucially important but everyone else has moved on.

thank you very much indeed for joining us. so the afd polling looks like it will be very much in line with 2017, may be a slight drop but not significant based on the exit polls and projections that we currently have. we can join polls and projections that we currently have. we canjoin in polls and projections that we currently have. we can join in the economist and the founder of a think tank that looks at the issues of micro— finance. i understand you have been down that the spd headquarters. how was it? i have been down that the spd headquarters. how was it? i guess the mood is _ headquarters. how was it? i guess the mood is quite i headquarters. how was it? i guess the mood is quite good, i headquarters. how was it? i guess the mood is quite good, stilli the mood is quite good, still cautious but positive. find the mood is quite good, still cautious but positive. and would you like the spd — cautious but positive. and would you like the spa to — cautious but positive. and would you like the spd to form i cautious but positive. and would you like the spd to form the i cautious but positive. and would you like the spd to form the next i like the spd to form the next coalition?— like the spd to form the next coalition? , . ,., ~ coalition? very much so, i think it would be an _ coalition? very much so, i think it would be an impressive i coalition? very much so, i think it would be an impressive and i coalition? very much so, i think it would be an impressive and good| would be an impressive and good government that actually moves thing ahead. ~ , ., i. government that actually moves thing ahead. ~ , ., ,. ~' government that actually moves thing ahead. . , ., y., 4' ,, , government that actually moves thing ahead. ~ , ., ~ ,, , ., ahead. why do you think the spd and its approach — ahead. why do you think the spd and its approach is _ ahead. why do you think the spd and its approach is the i ahead. why do you think the spd and its approach is the preferable i ahead. why do you think the spd and its approach is the preferable one? i its approach is the preferable one? because i think they have realised what has happened in economics in the last 20 years whereas the conservatives have not so much. we

once had a european debt, there is more flexibility and fiscal policy, you have to support the economy. listening to conservatives in recent days they are still back to the old mantra. ., , , ~ mantra. people might be thinking the cdu has been — mantra. people might be thinking the cdu has been in i mantra. people might be thinking the cdu has been in power— mantra. people might be thinking the cdu has been in power for— mantra. people might be thinking the cdu has been in power for different i cdu has been in powerfor different forms for 16 years, the german economy is in fantastic health, lots of germans live affluent lives compared with most people in the world. that looks like a party that knows how to run an economy? partly, because the — knows how to run an economy? partly, because the picture i knows how to run an economy? partly, because the picture is i knows how to run an economy? partly, because the picture is not i knows how to run an economy? partly, because the picture is not that i knows how to run an economy? partly, because the picture is not that rosy i because the picture is not that rosy for everyone. the low—wage sector is very large in germany, between 20 and 25%, which for a booming economy is too much. and you have to look at europe and whether the growth came at the expense of europe. i europe and whether the growth came at the expense of europe.— at the expense of europe. i know this is technical i at the expense of europe. i know this is technical but i i at the expense of europe. i know this is technical but i am i this is technical but i am interested in understanding it, shared european debt. most people don't know how shared that would

work, can you explain why you care about that and why it would matter to anyone else? i about that and why it would matter to anyone else?— to anyone else? i will try to keep it nontechnical. it i to anyone else? i will try to keep it nontechnical. it really matters| it nontechnical. it really matters because once you have a common currency which we introduced with the euro it is problematic not to have common debt. it is a bit like you are selling a third of a product, an iphone without a charger, so it doesn't really work, and you could see that pretty acutely after the financial crisis because we couldn't take the necessary steps to really reinvigorate the european economy and the build it up again. now we actually did it after the corona crisis, or during it. there is shared european debt and they are using it to rebuild the economy. it using it to rebuild the economy. if thatis using it to rebuild the economy. if that is one macro issue, another one that is one macro issue, another one that strikes me is how to change the economy and industry of germany into something much more suitable to stop climate change. all the parties seem to agree it needs to happen but they don't agree on the route. how does

micro— finance help to change the nature of german industry? i micro- finance help to change the nature of german industry? i think there are two _ nature of german industry? i think there are two big i nature of german industry? i think there are two big questions. i nature of german industry? i think there are two big questions. one i nature of german industry? i think| there are two big questions. one is you need a lot of public money to do this even if you don't think the public sector will fix it, but you still need to build a lot of things, you need to renovate buildings and build up public transport so this is one aspect when it comes in, that is really big, and the other thing is what is the relationship between private companies and the state more broadly and what can you market do and whether you need government to steer it. . ~ and whether you need government to steer it. ., ,, , ., , . steer it. thank you very much indeed. this i steer it. thank you very much indeed. this is i steer it. thank you very much indeed. this is why i steer it. thank you very much indeed. this is why these i steer it. thank you very much i indeed. this is why these coalition talks are going to be so crucial because let's just take one example, the social democrats who fell apart would like to help form the next government. they need to go into coalition with the free—market liberals, but we know the social democrats favour significant investment in things like infrastructure and raising taxes to do so. the free—market liberals

don't want to raise taxes and don't believe in that kind of state spending so you have parties who have to find common ground if they are to form a coalition and that is why for all the polite conversation we have seen with all the leaders being noncommittal, these negotiations are going to be really tough because the parties need to give up positions they hold dear in order to form a coalition and they will all be studying the numbers, let me show you the latest. these are updated projections, not exit polls, based on actual votes counted. the picture is becoming a familiar one. the union of the cdu— csu on 25 but the social democrats just ahead on 26. in terms of the maths that doesn't make much difference but in terms of perception of germans watching this process that one party or another have the right to push on, coming first helps. the greens on 14 and

what is interesting about this as we have seen some exit polls with the gap being up to four percentage points, this has it at two. this gives the free—market liberals even more leverage going into these talks. afd we have been discussing, will not be in the next coalition. turn this into seats at the bundestag and we are not interested in the percentage points on their own, we are interested in what it means for the bundestag. the spd would bejust means for the bundestag. the spd would be just about the biggest party but not by much, pretty close between the greens and the ftp. what is also interesting when we consider what coalition is for, depending on the coalition that defines the opposition and one potential coalition, not likely at the moment but in the past, has been cdu — csu, spd and greens. that would be the three biggest parties all in

government and raises questions about the opposition being strong enough. it doesn't work like they most likely outcome but predicting what will happen is not something i am going to do! let's speak now to a leaderfor the young am going to do! let's speak now to a leader for the young greens and live without is here on bbc news. thank you for your time. i am guessing you are feeling very happy with things? on the one hand, it is clear we wanted — on the one hand, it is clear we wanted more _ on the one hand, it is clear we wanted more votes i on the one hand, it is clear we wanted more votes for i on the one hand, it is clear we wanted more votes for the i on the one hand, it is clear we i wanted more votes for the green party. _ wanted more votes for the green party. we — wanted more votes for the green party. we wanted _ wanted more votes for the green party, we wanted to i wanted more votes for the green party, we wanted to go i wanted more votes for the green party, we wanted to go more i wanted more votes for the green party, we wanted to go more up. wanted more votes for the green i party, we wanted to go more up. on the one — party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand _ party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand to— party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand to be _ party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand to be sure i party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand to be sure we i party, we wanted to go more up. on the one hand to be sure we would i party, we wanted to go more up. on| the one hand to be sure we would be able to— the one hand to be sure we would be able to have — the one hand to be sure we would be able to have a — the one hand to be sure we would be able to have a coalition i the one hand to be sure we would be able to have a coalition that i the one hand to be sure we would be able to have a coalition that can i able to have a coalition that can tackle _ able to have a coalition that can tackle climate _ able to have a coalition that can tackle climate change i able to have a coalition that can tackle climate change and i able to have a coalition that can tackle climate change and will. able to have a coalition that can. tackle climate change and will be able to _ tackle climate change and will be able to tackle _ tackle climate change and will be able to tackle social— tackle climate change and will be able to tackle social injustice i tackle climate change and will be able to tackle social injustice and society. — able to tackle social injustice and society. but— able to tackle social injustice and society. but on— able to tackle social injustice and society, but on the i able to tackle social injustice and society, but on the other- able to tackle social injustice and society, but on the other hand, i| society, but on the other hand, i think— society, but on the other hand, i think many— society, but on the other hand, i think many people i society, but on the other hand, i think many people who i society, but on the other hand, i think many people who voted i society, but on the other hand, ij think many people who voted for society, but on the other hand, i. think many people who voted for the greens— think many people who voted for the greens didn't — think many people who voted for the greens didn'tjust_ think many people who voted for the greens didn't just vote i think many people who voted for the greens didn't just vote for i think many people who voted for the greens didn't just vote for them i greens didn't just vote for them because — greens didn't just vote for them because they _ greens didn't just vote for them because they always i greens didn't just vote for them because they always get i greens didn't just vote for them because they always get it i greens didn't just vote for them because they always get it and i greens didn't just vote for them | because they always get it and it greens didn't just vote for them i because they always get it and it is another— because they always get it and it is another thing — because they always get it and it is another thing to— because they always get it and it is another thing to do, i because they always get it and it is another thing to do, but— because they always get it and it is another thing to do, but they i because they always get it and it is| another thing to do, but they voted because _ another thing to do, but they voted because they — another thing to do, but they voted because they hope _ another thing to do, but they voted because they hope greens i another thing to do, but they voted because they hope greens willi another thing to do, but they voted because they hope greens will be i another thing to do, but they voted i because they hope greens will be the party that— because they hope greens will be the party that will — because they hope greens will be the party that will be _ because they hope greens will be the party that will be the _

because they hope greens will be the party that will be the ones i because they hope greens will be the party that will be the ones that i party that will be the ones that will take — party that will be the ones that will take care _ party that will be the ones that will take care of— party that will be the ones that will take care of climate i party that will be the ones that| will take care of climate change party that will be the ones that i will take care of climate change and social— will take care of climate change and social injustice _ will take care of climate change and social injustice in _ will take care of climate change and social injustice in the i will take care of climate change and social injustice in the next i social injustice in the next coalition. _ social injustice in the next coalition, and i— social injustice in the next coalition, and i think- social injustice in the next coalition, and i think it- social injustice in the next coalition, and i think it isi social injustice in the next| coalition, and i think it is a social injustice in the next i coalition, and i think it is a very bil coalition, and i think it is a very big responsibility— coalition, and i think it is a very big responsibility for— coalition, and i think it is a very big responsibility for the i coalition, and i think it is a very. big responsibility for the greens, even _ big responsibility for the greens, even though— big responsibility for the greens, even though it _ big responsibility for the greens, even though it is _ big responsibility for the greens, even though it is not i big responsibility for the greens, even though it is not 20% i big responsibility for the greens, even though it is not 20% to i big responsibility for the greens, even though it is not 20% to do i even though it is not 20% to do exactly— even though it is not 20% to do exactly that _ even though it is not 20% to do exactly that. [it i even though it is not 2096 to do exactly that-— exactly that. it is our responsibility. if- exactly that. it is our responsibility. if you | exactly that. it is our i responsibility. if you choose with your work with the cdu or the social democrats?— democrats? definitely the social democrats- _ democrats? definitely the social democrats. even i democrats? definitely the social democrats. even though i democrats? definitely the social democrats. even though we i democrats? definitely the social democrats. even though we still democrats? definitely the social- democrats. even though we still have differences _ democrats. even though we still have differences for— democrats. even though we still have differences for us— democrats. even though we still have differences for us as _ democrats. even though we still have differences for us as the i democrats. even though we still have differences for us as the young i differences for us as the young greens— differences for us as the young greens it — differences for us as the young greens it is _ differences for us as the young greens it is clear— differences for us as the young greens it is clear we i differences for us as the young greens it is clear we do- differences for us as the young greens it is clear we do not- differences for us as the young| greens it is clear we do notjust need _ greens it is clear we do notjust need climate _ greens it is clear we do notjust need climate policies, i greens it is clear we do notjust need climate policies, we - greens it is clear we do notjust need climate policies, we need| need climate policies, we need social_ need climate policies, we need socialjustice _ need climate policies, we need socialjustice and _ need climate policies, we need socialjustice and climate - need climate policies, we need| socialjustice and climate justice social justice and climate justice which _ socialjustice and climate justice which means_ socialjustice and climate justice which means we _ socialjustice and climate justice which means we need _ socialjustice and climate justice which means we need higher. socialjustice and climate justice - which means we need higher wages, lower_ which means we need higher wages, lower rents — which means we need higher wages, lower rents for — which means we need higher wages, lower rents for the _ which means we need higher wages, lower rents for the people, - which means we need higher wages, lower rents for the people, and - which means we need higher wages, lower rents for the people, and i- lower rents for the people, and i don't _ lower rents for the people, and i don't thihk— lower rents for the people, and i don't think the _ lower rents for the people, and i don't think the cdu, _ lower rents for the people, and i don't think the cdu, the - lower rents for the people, and i don't think the cdu, the union, i lower rents for the people, and il don't think the cdu, the union, is interested — don't think the cdu, the union, is interested irr— don't think the cdu, the union, is interested in doing _ don't think the cdu, the union, is interested in doing these - don't think the cdu, the union, is interested in doing these things. i interested in doing these things. climate — interested in doing these things. climate change _ interested in doing these things. climate change has _ interested in doing these things. climate change has been - interested in doing these things. climate change has been talkedi interested in doing these things. - climate change has been talked about an awful lot during this election campaign. are you surprised the greens, they have had a great night but the result not even hire? it is but the result not even hire? it is all about a _ but the result not even hire? it is all about a horse _ but the result not even hire? it is all about a horse race between the union— all about a horse race between the union and — all about a horse race between the union and the _ all about a horse race between the union and the social— all about a horse race between the union and the social democrats - all about a horse race between the i union and the social democrats and all about a horse race between the . union and the social democrats and i -et union and the social democrats and i get it, _ union and the social democrats and i

get it. people — union and the social democrats and i get it. people don't _ union and the social democrats and i get it, people don't want _ union and the social democrats and i get it, people don't want armin - get it, people don't want armin laschet — get it, people don't want armin laschet to— get it, people don't want armin laschet to he _ get it, people don't want armin laschet to be chancellor- get it, people don't want armin laschet to be chancellor so - get it, people don't want armini laschet to be chancellor so they voted _ laschet to be chancellor so they voted for — laschet to be chancellor so they voted for olaf _ laschet to be chancellor so they voted for olaf scholz— laschet to be chancellor so they voted for olaf scholz even - laschet to be chancellor so they. voted for olaf scholz even though they were — voted for olaf scholz even though they were hot _ voted for olaf scholz even though they were not all _ voted for olaf scholz even though they were not all in _ voted for olaf scholz even though they were not all in with - voted for olaf scholz even though they were not all in with the - voted for olaf scholz even though | they were not all in with the social democrats. — they were not all in with the social democrats. it— they were not all in with the social democrats, it is— they were not all in with the social democrats, it is all— they were not all in with the social democrats, it is all ok, _ they were not all in with the social democrats, it is all ok, but - they were not all in with the social democrats, it is all ok, but it- they were not all in with the social democrats, it is all ok, but it was| democrats, it is all ok, but it was kind of— democrats, it is all ok, but it was kind of predictable _ democrats, it is all ok, but it was kind of predictable that _ democrats, it is all ok, but it was kind of predictable that this - democrats, it is all ok, but it wasj kind of predictable that this would happen— kind of predictable that this would happen right — kind of predictable that this would happen right now— kind of predictable that this would happen right now because - kind of predictable that this would happen right now because it- kind of predictable that this would happen right now because it is- kind of predictable that this would happen right now because it is sol happen right now because it is so close _ happen right now because it is so close to — happen right now because it is so close to cait _ happen right now because it is so close to call. i— happen right now because it is so close to call. i think _ happen right now because it is so close to call. i think the - close to call. i think the responsibility— close to call. i think the responsibility now- close to call. i think the responsibility now will i close to call. i think the i responsibility now will be close to call. i think the - responsibility now will be not just to say— responsibility now will be not just to say we — responsibility now will be not just to say we are _ responsibility now will be not just to say we are third, _ responsibility now will be not just to say we are third, now- responsibility now will be not just to say we are third, now we - responsibility now will be not just to say we are third, now we don't have _ to say we are third, now we don't have to _ to say we are third, now we don't have to do — to say we are third, now we don't have to do much _ to say we are third, now we don't have to do much and _ to say we are third, now we don't have to do much and we - to say we are third, now we don't have to do much and we just - to say we are third, now we don't have to do much and we just likel to say we are third, now we don't i have to do much and we just like the little party— have to do much and we just like the little party that— have to do much and we just like the little party that does _ have to do much and we just like the little party that does something - have to do much and we just like the little party that does something for i little party that does something for climate _ little party that does something for climate change. _ little party that does something for climate change, but _ little party that does something for climate change, but to _ little party that does something for climate change, but to be - little party that does something for climate change, but to be the - little party that does something forj climate change, but to be the party that realty— climate change, but to be the party that really takes _ climate change, but to be the party that really takes care _ climate change, but to be the party that really takes care that - climate change, but to be the party that really takes care that this - that really takes care that this will he — that really takes care that this will he a — that really takes care that this will be a climate _ that really takes care that this will be a climate justice - that really takes care that this . will be a climate justice coalition. thank— will be a climate justice coalition. thank you — will be a climate justice coalition. thank you very _ will be a climate justice coalition. thank you very much _ will be a climate justice coalition. thank you very much for - will be a climate justice coalition. | thank you very much for speaking will be a climate justice coalition. i thank you very much for speaking to us, we appreciate you joining us live here in berlin. as sara lee leaves me, we can step into position in berlin as we consider these results. very close to a dead heat between the two biggest parties. henning is international editor of

international politics quarterly so you have been following this closely, what has this told us about general politics this evening? iterate general politics this evening? we don't general politics this evening? - don't have too dominating parties any more, our big leading parties have become a little smaller but politics is becoming more interesting in a way, and we will be looking at a new formation which may be just brings the dynamism out. find be just brings the dynamism out. and when ou be just brings the dynamism out. and when you say you are becoming more like europe, you mean there are not one or two big parties, but there are more parties sharing the vote. you could call it dutchification of german politics. it is a sign of the times, four years ago a coalition between the cdu, the greens and stp was tried but failed very late in the day, so we were very close to having a coalition then, but we

might more likely have a traffic light coalition, which is probably even more forward—looking. find light coalition, which is probably even more forward-looking. and to use our even more forward-looking. and to use your word. _ even more forward-looking. and to use your word, the _ even more forward-looking. and to use your word, the dutchification . even more forward-looking. and to| use your word, the dutchification of german politics, the spreading out of the boat across more parties, is that good for politics and democracy?— that good for politics and democracy? that good for politics and democra ? , ., ., ., ,, , that good for politics and democra ? , ., ., .,~ , ., democracy? yes and no. it makes it a little more difficult, _ democracy? yes and no. it makes it a little more difficult, maybe, - democracy? yes and no. it makes it a little more difficult, maybe, and - little more difficult, maybe, and you will have to see how stable a 3—way coalition can be. the last time we had it in the 19505, no one complains about conrad adenauer back then, but times have changed, and in principle i don't see why that should be such a big problem. i think we may end up all being a little surprised how quickly it can actually be resolved.— little surprised how quickly it can l actually be resolved.- yes, actually be resolved. really? yes, reall . actually be resolved. really? yes, really- you're _ actually be resolved. really? yes, really. you're the _ actually be resolved. really? yes, really. you're the first _ actually be resolved. really? yes, really. you're the first person - actually be resolved. really? yes, really. you're the first person i - really. you're the first person i have spoken — really. you're the first person i have spoken to _ really. you're the first person i have spoken to has _ really. you're the first person i have spoken to has said - really. you're the first person i have spoken to has said that? l

really. you're the first person i i have spoken to has said that? do you think the fdp leader, last time he walked away from negotiations, do you think he will changes approach? this is one of the reasons i think it will be really difficult for him to walk again, and all the pressure of german industry will be on him not to be the one who makes different coalition is possible. so the stars aligned for a traffic light coalition and the latest ic is that the social democrats are edging ahead and that would probably give them call on the chancellor. iterate ahead and that would probably give them call on the chancellor. we will have to see. — them call on the chancellor. we will have to see, the _ them call on the chancellor. we will have to see, the first _ them call on the chancellor. we will have to see, the first person - them call on the chancellor. we will have to see, the first person i've . have to see, the first person i've spoken to who thinks it can be sorted out quickly but really talking about the situation where there is possibilities for all parties, the cdu think they have a chance, the social democrats think they are just in the lead, a great outcome considering where they were two months ago but the greens know they are in the mix, the free—market

liberals, for the far right and far left that has been tougher but everything still in play in this most important of german elections. well into the '205 and the summary spots and more sunshine to go around compared with yesterday as well. but we do have a change in the weather on the way. that change will be brought courtesy of the strap of cloud you can see here. a cold front bringing rain to northern ireland and west scotland but behind that feature the ones coming from me north—westerly direction, dragging cooler air eastwards across the country overnight and into monday as well. the temperature this afternoon reaching 23 across northern scotland, one of the warmest places in the whole of the country but

tomorrow the temperature and kinloss will drop by around 10 c. a massive change to how the weather feels. overnight this cold front will continue to push eastwards across scotland, and western areas of england and wales and perhaps the midlands and the rain will be heavy, wins custody as well, first signs of the cooler air edging into west scotland and northern ireland towards the end of the night as the ran clear through. rain could cause a few issues for eastern scotland, slow—moving and heavy, but eventually clears away from eastern areas of the uk followed by sunshine and showers but shower is widespread, frequent, heavy, blustery, maybe some thunder. a much cooler kind of day, blustery, maybe 5ome thunder. a much cooler kind of day, 14— blustery, maybe some thunder. a much cooler kind of day, 14— 15 for scotland and northern ireland. tuesday another area of low pressure set to swing and across the country, this one again bringing some fairly heavy rain but rain arriving quickly across wales and western england,

perhaps not reaching east anglia and the south—east until after dark but across scotland, western areas in northern ireland, showers are potentially longer outbreaks of rain so tuesday will be wet and continue to be quite windy as well. tuesday night, that rain and strong wind pushed across eastern england before clearing. wednesday the driest day of the week ahead, a ridge built in, lots of dry weather and showers continue even into the afternoon across parts of north—west england, running into parts of the west midlands as well and the temperature coming down a bit, highs of 13— 16. that is the weather.

hello, this is bbc news. the headlines at 8pm... warnings from petrol retailers that many petrol stations no longer have fuels as a result of days of cues at the pumps. there is a large number, more than half, which have already run dry, and those others are running dry quite quickly. the and those others are running dry quite quickly-— quite quickly. the murder of the london school _ quite quickly. the murder of the london school teacher, - quite quickly. the murder of the london school teacher, police i london school teacher, police arrested 36 or a man on suspicion of murder. a good day for sir keira starmer come the labour party conference, as his controversial plans on changing leadership rules are nearly passed. a5 plans on changing leadership rules are nearly passed. as the votes are counted in the german elections,

projections suggest that the two main parties are