this is bbc news with me christian fraser. the uk health secretary warns covid cases could reach 100 thousand a day this winter — as he urges more people to get vaccinated. i will do what it takes to make sure that this pressure doesn't become unsustainable and it that we don't allow the nhs to become overwhelmed. hospital admissions are rising sharply in the uk, up 23% this week. nhs leaders are calling on the government to trigger plan b now. buckingham palace says the queen has reluctantly cancelled a two day visit to northern ireland and has been order to rest on the advice of her doctors. the man who carried out america's worst high school shooting three years ago in parkland, florida pleads guilty to 17 murders. and a mission to rescue the dogs trapped by lava on the spanish island —

la palma. hello, "we are right on the edge", the warning from nhs leaders today, as covid cases in the uk reach their highest level since march. there are calls for the government to trigger a plan b which would mean a return to some of the earlier restrictions. the number of cases in the uk are the highest in europe, and the uk health secretary, sajid javid, warned today that cases could rise further to 100,000 a day b winter. —— cases could rise further to 100,000 a day by winter. but he believes the vaccines and the booster programme remain the best form of defence. the government said today it has given third jabs to four million people. and they have now opened vaccines centres, to children 12 and over, so they can jabs

during the half term period. here's hugh pym. he of ambulances waiting to hand over patients and some hospitals reflect mounting pressure on the nhs because of a range of conditions and notjust because of a range of conditions and not just call that. because of a range of conditions and notjust call that. how because of a range of conditions and not just call that.— notjust call that. now there are demands for— notjust call that. now there are demands for a _ notjust call that. now there are demands for a timing _ notjust call that. now there are demands for a timing of- notjust call that. now there are demands for a timing of the - notjust call that. now there are i demands for a timing of the rules, plan b in england. when you have that combination together- plan b in england. when you have that combination together you've got a erfect that combination together you've got a perfect storm. _ that combination together you've got a perfect storm, and _ that combination together you've got a perfect storm, and that's _ that combination together you've got a perfect storm, and that's why - that combination together you've got a perfect storm, and that's why we i a perfect storm, and that's why we need to do everything we can to reduce the pressure and that is why we need plan b now.— reduce the pressure and that is why we need plan b now. medical leaders have also warned _ we need plan b now. medical leaders have also warned of— we need plan b now. medical leaders have also warned of the _ we need plan b now. medical leaders have also warned of the serious - have also warned of the serious strain on hospitals, ambulance services and gp practices and said some intervention may well be required. some intervention may well be reuuired. ~ , ., some intervention may well be reuuired. , ., ., some intervention may well be reuuired. ., �* required. when it comes to plan b, sooner is better _ required. when it comes to plan b, sooner is better than _ required. when it comes to plan b, sooner is better than later, - required. when it comes to plan b, sooner is better than later, and - sooner is better than later, and things— sooner is better than later, and things in— sooner is better than later, and things in the nhs are precarious right— things in the nhs are precarious right now — things in the nhs are precarious right now. the pandemic is still raging — right now. the pandemic is still raging i— right now. the pandemic is still raging. i would take everyone to take personal responsibility right now irrespective of national

guidelines. now irrespective of national guideline— now irrespective of national guidelines. now irrespective of national uuidelines. ., , guidelines. the government says it will introduce _ guidelines. the government says it will introduce plan _ guidelines. the government says it will introduce plan b _ guidelines. the government says it will introduce plan b if— guidelines. the government says it will introduce plan b if there - will introduce plan b if there is unsustainable pressure on the nhs in england with steps like me making face come brings mandatory in some settings and asking people to work from home and introducing vaccine passports in northern ireland, face coverings remain a legal requirement in crowded indoor spaces. it's the same for masks and whales, proof of vaccination at nightclubs is needed and people are encouraged to work from home. scotland's strategy similarly includes vaccine passports and face masks in schools and some other settings. the health secretary warned cases could get hit 100,000 a day while stopping short of announcing new measures. tote day while stopping short of announcing new measures. we are lookin: announcing new measures. we are looking closely _ announcing new measures. we are looking closely at _ announcing new measures. we are looking closely at the _ announcing new measures. we are looking closely at the data - announcing new measures. we are looking closely at the data and - announcing new measures. we are looking closely at the data and we | looking closely at the data and we want to be implementing our plan b of contingency measures at this point. but we will be staying vigilant, preparing for all eventualities whilst strengthening our vital defences that can help us fight back against this virus. he

also announced it deals to secure two new treatments for covert patients which could be available soon if approved by regulators. ministers say the strategy in england for now is to focus on the continued roll—out of vaccines, booster jabs and first continued roll—out of vaccines, boosterjabs and first and second doses for those who haven't already had them. at the big unknown whether that can happen fast enough to help slow any future spread of the virus. here, gareth is getting at their desk and he is eligible because he is undergoing treatment for cancer and his immune system has been compromised. i and his immune system has been compromised-— compromised. i feel a lot more confident _ compromised. i feel a lot more confident going _ compromised. i feel a lot more confident going forward, - compromised. i feel a lot more confident going forward, and i compromised. i feel a lot more confident going forward, and a | compromised. i feel a lot more - confident going forward, and a great believer in the vaccination programme. in believer in the vaccination programme-— believer in the vaccination rouramme. . , ., ,, , programme. in a bid to speed up the rouress, programme. in a bid to speed up the progress. the _ programme. in a bid to speed up the progress, the system _ programme. in a bid to speed up the progress, the system has _ programme. in a bid to speed up the progress, the system has been - programme. in a bid to speed up the| progress, the system has been made simpler for those who are eligible six months after the second dose is. hugh pym, bbc news. the problem right now as hugh explained is the waning efficacy of the vaccine, particularly among those older people who had theirjabs more

than six months ago. as of today 4 million have received a third jab. but there's still some way to go. it's thought some 22 million will need a booster. let's look at the latest data then as to where we are with infection right now. and when you compare the number of new coronavirus cases with the figure that was being recorded day to day last winter — you can see why people are worried. that said the vaccines are effective. the hospitalisation rates are very different now to last winter. evidence if it were still needed as to why people should get a jab. still some 5 million who haven't. i'm joined now by rowland kao — an epidemiologist at edinburgh university who sits on one of the government sage�*s subadvisory committees. he is speaking in a personal capacity here on the programme. thank you very much for being with us. why do you think the infection rate here in the uk is much higher comparative to the rest of the

countries in europe? fine comparative to the rest of the countries in europe?— comparative to the rest of the countries in europe? one of the big reasons we — countries in europe? one of the big reasons we seem _ countries in europe? one of the big reasons we seem to _ countries in europe? one of the big reasons we seem to have _ countries in europe? one of the big reasons we seem to have more - reasons we seem to have more infections now is because that pattern of the epidemic in the uk has changed with teenagers and younger adults really driving things forward. we were much slower in adopting vaccination in those groups, in particular, teenagers. that has had a big impact on the course of the pandemic. because they had 'ust course of the pandemic. because they had just come — course of the pandemic. because they had just come back _ course of the pandemic. because they had just come back to _ course of the pandemic. because they had just come back to school. - had just come back to school. exactly. had just come back to school. exactl . , ., ., exactly. explained to me, if you are in control right _ exactly. explained to me, if you are in control right now, _ exactly. explained to me, if you are in control right now, which - in control right now, which levers would you be pulling and in which order? ~ .., would you be pulling and in which order? ~ _, .,, , order? welcome as we were 'ust talkin: order? welcome as we were 'ust talking about. i order? welcome as we were 'ust talking about, teenagers, h order? welcome as we were just i talking about, teenagers, younger adults are the ones currently driving forward the patterns of infection, so getting out the vaccination to teenagers as quickly as possible is going to be one of the key things. beyond that, we want to make sure those booster vaccines go out, because remember, we are onlyjust reaching the point where people early on in the vaccination campaign are starting to lose that efficacy, immunity is going down, so

we need to get on top of that before those numbers increase. finally, mask wearing, one of those measures which is very, very little impact on other aspects of social engagement on business, etc, and could be adopted now as a mandatory measure. again, as mentioned earlier, has been done in other home nation. 50 been done in other home nation. so everything to me it's interesting that you put masks at the bottom, because i think some people would probably put masks at the top. welcome it's not exactly that they are at the bottom. the biggest impact will likely be because of increasing vaccination rates. that's obviously something that could be done right now, could be done immediately with very little detrimental effect. so in that sense, does have a high priority. beyond those three that you have set out there, the other libraries presumably, with much more pay. yes. presumably, with much more pay. yes, otentiall . presumably, with much more pay. yes, potentially- they _ presumably, with much more pay. yes, potentially. they talk _ presumably, with much more pay. us: potentially. they talk about increased working from home, so we know remote working means you are less liable to spend money, because

a lot of spending is done while you at work, so that does have an impact on businesses, especially in city centres where there are already hard hit over the course of the pandemic, so that is going to have any kind of lockdown measures which restrict social interaction and it is going to have an impact on people. remember, even though a lot of the infections are going on in teenagers, they are the ones who we really need to have as close to normal lives as possible because they have already suffered due to that lack of social interaction. here in the media, we are looking for the focus in the direction from government, but, of course, people can make their own decisions, can't they? they can wear a mask and that they can open windows, they can get a lateral flow test twice a week, all of these measures which we have within our own capability would help. within our own capability would hel. �* , ,., , within our own capability would hel. , within our own capability would hel, , within our own capability would hel. , ., help. absolutely. people can and certainly should _ help. absolutely. people can and certainly should do _ help. absolutely. people can and certainly should do things - help. absolutely. people can and certainly should do things and i help. absolutely. people can and certainly should do things and be aware that these things can have an impact if we do it at on masks. without clear direction from government, that level of impotence thatis government, that level of impotence that is required for individuals to do it task to be quite high.

governments can do a lot to set the example for what individuals are going to do. example for what individuals are going to do-_ example for what individuals are going to do— going to do. what we don't mind, thou~h, going to do. what we don't mind, though. is — going to do. what we don't mind, though. is a _ going to do. what we don't mind, though, is a sustained _ going to do. what we don't mind, though, is a sustained period - going to do. what we don't mind, though, is a sustained period of. going to do. what we don't mind, i though, is a sustained period of big infection because what happens in that scenario as we get variance, we get different mutations, bentley? and he talked about one today which he is calling a y 4.2, which is spreading, although, he did say that it is no greater threat than the delta variant. what do we know about that mutation? we delta variant. what do we know about that mutation?— delta variant. what do we know about that mutation? we have been aware of this sub -e that mutation? we have been aware of this subtype of— that mutation? we have been aware of this subtype of the _ that mutation? we have been aware of this subtype of the delta _ that mutation? we have been aware of this subtype of the delta variant, - this subtype of the delta variant, so it is an existing variant, we are aware that spreading more rapidly since aboutjuly. eights currently is spread all over, but it is not increasing at an incredibly fast rate, so the estimates i've seen from other not doing the calculations myself are on the order of ten or 15% faster. that's not

very fast. so it's only slightly more infectious if at all. and there is no evidence as well that it is causing severe infection. so something to watch, but i think the important thing about it is it does highlight the fact that if we were to get another variant, and they could still come up, of concern, that would indeed immediately put enormously more pressure on the nhs, and we need to have the buffer capacity and order to prevent being overwhelmed by that single kind of random event which could still occur. i random event which could still occur. ., , random event which could still occur. . , ., ., ., ., occur. i have listened to a lot of --eole occur. i have listened to a lot of people talking _ occur. i have listened to a lot of people talking today _ occur. i have listened to a lot of people talking today about - occur. i have listened to a lot of people talking today about the l people talking today about the booster programme and i about the vaccine programme for children, and it doesn't seem to me to be working just as effective as the roll—out of the vaccine in the early stages. why do you think we are having problems in the uk with this booster programme, 4,000,000 of eventually 22,000,000 that will meet at their jab. 22,000,000 that will meet at their “ab. , ~ , , ., 22,000,000 that will meet at their “ab. , ~ , ~ ., jab. yes, keep in mind, you know, the vaccine —

jab. yes, keep in mind, you know, the vaccine roll-out _ jab. yes, keep in mind, you know, the vaccine roll-out that _ jab. yes, keep in mind, you know, the vaccine roll-out that we - jab. yes, keep in mind, you know, the vaccine roll-out that we have, | the vaccine roll—out that we have, that first round of vaccination was incredibly successful. far more than many people would have thought. it was one of the best, fastest, most complete roll—outs we have ever seen. what we are seeing now undoubtedly could be increased from about what we need to remember is it's almost certain that it will not reach the levels that we had for the first doses. that isn't the same impetus of getting out of lockdown, from other isn't the same impetus of having best. people think that things are more normal. a great percentage of people will leave office, so we need to minimise the number, certainly, if we can get anywhere close to what we had in the first wave them i think we would all be very, very happy. first wave them i think we would all be very. very happy-— be very, very happy. really get to net our be very, very happy. really get to get your expertise. _ be very, very happy. really get to get your expertise. thank - be very, very happy. really get to get your expertise. thank you - be very, very happy. really get to get your expertise. thank you sol get your expertise. thank you so much for coming in the programme. all right, thank you. nikolas cruz, the man who shot dead 17 people at a school in parkland, florida, three years ago, has pleaded guilty to murder and the attempted murder of 17 others who were injured. the 23 year old, a former pupil at the marjory stoneman douglas high school, had been expelled a year earlier. staff described him as an "outcast" and a troublemaker. despite a tip—off a month before the shooting cruz was still able

to own a semi automatic rifle. he pleaded guilty to all 34 charges. to count one of the indictment, murder in the first degree of victim luc hoyer, how do you wish to plead? guilty. to count two of the indictment, murder in the first degree of martin duque. how do you wish to plead? guilty. count three of the indictment, murder in the first degree of gina montalto, how do you wish to plead? guilty. after entering his pleas —— he was allowed to address the court, in which he spoke directly to the victims�* families. i am very sorry for what i did, and i have to live with that every day, and that if i were to get a second chance, i would do everything in my power to try to help others. and i am doing this for you, and i do not care if you do not believe me. i love you and i know you don't believe me,

but i have to live with this every day, and it brings me nightmares, and i can't live with myself sometimes, but i try to push through because i know that's what you guys would want me to do. i hate drugs, and i believe this country would do better if everyone would stop smoking marijuana and doing all these drugs. david 0valle is the crime reporter for the miami herald and has been following today's developments. really interesting reaction they the air and courts. really interesting reaction they the airand courts. did really interesting reaction they the air and courts. did you think it was genuine remorse and contrition, or was it for the benefit of the courts? �* , ~ was it for the benefit of the courts? �*, ~ ., ., ., courts? it's kind of hard to tell how much _ courts? it's kind of hard to tell how much of — courts? it's kind of hard to tell how much of it _ courts? it's kind of hard to tell how much of it was _ courts? it's kind of hard to tell how much of it was genuine i courts? it's kind of hard to tell - how much of it was genuine remorse and how— how much of it was genuine remorse and how much was just how much of it was genuine remorse and how much wasjust him trying to curry— and how much wasjust him trying to curry favour. — and how much wasjust him trying to curry favour, may be permeate that fox of _ curry favour, may be permeate that fox of a _ curry favour, may be permeate that fox of a future jury that is not going — fox of a future jury that is not going to _ fox of a future jury that is not going to be panelled until next year. but — going to be panelled until next year, but certainly his remorse was a bit _ year, but certainly his remorse was a bit puzzling, kind of made it more about— a bit puzzling, kind of made it more about himself i think throwing in, you know. — about himself i think throwing in, you know, references to him not

being _ you know, references to him not being able — you know, references to him not being able to sleep and he can't watch _ being able to sleep and he can't watch tv, — being able to sleep and he can't watch tv, you know, kind of obviously— watch tv, you know, kind of obviously didn't set really well too well but _ obviously didn't set really well too well but the family members who were gathered _ well but the family members who were gathered just a few paces away. i want gathered just a few paces away. want to gathered just a few paces away. i want to come to them in a moment, because they are the most important part of this process, butjust to focus on him for a second, clearly the death penalty is on the table. are there in the background, what you have done, either mitigating circumstances that the courts, the jury circumstances that the courts, the jury might consider?— circumstances that the courts, the jury might consider? sure. you know, the likelihood — jury might consider? sure. you know, the likelihood that _ jury might consider? sure. you know, the likelihood that nicholas _ jury might consider? sure. you know, the likelihood that nicholas was - the likelihood that nicholas was ever going to be acquitted orfound not guilty by reason of insanity was pretty much non—existent, so really him pleading guilty todayjust buys him pleading guilty todayjust buys him a little bit of an edge, so that when he is at the penalty phase of the trial, the sentencing phase, his lawyers can argue, you know, that he had remorse, yet contrition, love,

he went ahead and pleaded guilty and accepted responsibility for this heinous act. but, yes, absolutely, the thrust of the penalty phase next year will be his story, write? all the mitigating factors, he was born to a crack cocaine addicted mother. he was adopted. he had all these mental health issues and all of this tumultuous life and upbringing as a youth, so all of that would be laid out for the jurors in youth, so all of that would be laid out for thejurors in hopes youth, so all of that would be laid out for the jurors in hopes that at least one, because that's all you need, just one, to stand fast and vote for her life, and if it's not unanimous, then he will get like in prison, and if not, they agree none of the neck unanimously 12— zero that he will be sentenced to death. the parents of luke player who was shot dead and one of the classrooms said that's outside the courtroom. he does not deserve life in prison. life in prison is a life. he deserves nothing more than the death penalty. i'm just looking forjustice here,

and justice for us is, you know, we want him dead, we went him forgotten. i don't ever want to hear this kid's name again. we can't ever put ourselves, we hope to never put ourselves in the position of these parents, david, given that he has pleaded guilty today, will they be spared from testimony from that detail, the gory detail of what unfolded that day, or well that all still have to be played out in the penalty hearing? no, it will definitely still have to be played out, because normally it is the same jury for both phases, but because the prosecution does not have the ability to do it in the first phase now, now they have to introduce a lot of fat in the second phase, so it may not be quite as extensive, there may be fewer technical witnesses, maybe there

won't be as many crime scene technicians, the chain of custody evidence type witnesses, but the 90w evidence type witnesses, but the gory details and the surveillance video and the compassion, all of that should still come into the trial, so they are absolutely going to be subjected to the trauma of reliving this horrible, horrible events, and i remember one of the aggravating factor is that prosecutors need to be able to prove to get the death penalty as heinous attractions and cruel, right? while today that's coming have to present evidence that, you know, these people suffered in their last moment, that they knew they were about to die, that he went ahead and was shooting wounded students that he had already shot so they had those moments of pure fear and this cold and calculated manner, so absolutely, they are not going to be spared the gruesome details. david, sta with spared the gruesome details. david, stay with sap _ spared the gruesome details. david, stay with sap well, _ spared the gruesome details. david, stay with sap well, because - spared the gruesome details. david, stay with sap well, because there i spared the gruesome details. david, stay with sap well, because there is| stay with sap well, because there is other breaking news out of florida tonight. police hunting fugitive brian laundrie, the 23—year—old fiance of murdered gabby petito,

say they have found partial human remains in an alligator—infested swamp. earlier in the day laundrie s belongings were found in the carlton reserve, where laundrie was thought to be hiding. his parents identified the backpack that was found. the sarasota medical examiner has been called to the scene. it's a five—week kind that has been going on in this park. we were discussing in the office the fact that there had been no trace of him at all, no signal that he was trying to use money or he had been spotted anywhere. it didn't seem to suggest that maybe something had happened to him in this park. i that maybe something had happened to him in this park-— him in this park. i think the natural assumption - him in this park. i think the natural assumption from i him in this park. i think the - natural assumption from pretty much everybody following this case is that he probably killed himself. and obviously we will have to wait until the medical examiner does their thing then determines whether these remains are actually brian or not, but certainly and today's day and age, you know, it's possible to commence missing till long with surveillance cameras —— it's impossible, because of the digital

footprints we all have come up alone in this case, i've never seen anything in terms of the sheer amount of people who are interested in this case doing, you know, online analysis of the evidence and the videos, coming up with theories, you know, i wasjust looking on videos, coming up with theories, you know, i was just looking on twitter now, people are starting to take credits, we finally found him, you know, it asserted one of the bizarre spectacles of this whole case that is really unique, so yeah, it would not surprise me if the remains were hand, because he was alive and hiding somewhere i think someone would have noticed by now.- would have noticed by now. david, rarel aet would have noticed by now. david, rarely get to _ would have noticed by now. david, rarely get to talk _ would have noticed by now. david, rarely get to talk to _ would have noticed by now. david, rarely get to talk to you. _ would have noticed by now. david, rarely get to talk to you. thank - would have noticed by now. david, | rarely get to talk to you. thank you very much. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: a mission to rescue dogs trapped by lava on the spanish island — la palma intelligence officers have deemed that mps are now facing a "substantial threat" to their safety — that's the warning given by the home secretary, priti patel, to the house of commons this evening. the change in threat level follows a security review launched

after the conservative mp for southend west — sir david amess — was killed on friday at a surgery for his constituents. the joint terrorism analysis centre has conducted an independent review on the risk facing members of parliament. while we do not see any information or intelligence which points to an incredible specific or imminent threat, i must update ——to any credible specific or imminent threat, i must update the house that that threat level facing members of this house is now deemed to be substantial. this is the same level as the current national threat to the united kingdom as a whole, so i can assure the house that our world—class security and intelligence agencies and counterterrorism police will now ensure that this change is properly reflected in the operational posture. one of europe's best—known footballers — real madrid striker karim benzema — has gone on trial in france, accused of complicity in an attempt to extort money from fellow

footballer mathieu valbuena over a sex tape. prosecutors say 33—year—old benzema — who didn't appear in court — encouraged his team—mate, midfielder valbuena to pay blackmailers — to stop a sex—tape, which was found on his phone, from being made public. the case dates back to six years ago, when the team—mates were at a training camp in france. hugh schofield is in paris with the background. the famous case back in 2015 widely reported mathieu valbuena and benzema were both on the french squad, and its alleged that at their training ground just south of paris in october 2015, benzema approached valbuena and said to him, "i know you've got trouble with a sex tape," which was a video which had been originally on a valbuena's phone which had got out and was showing him in a sex act with a woman. and he said, benzema said to valbuena, i can help

you put this to bed. i can help you put this away if you get in touch with somebody i know and lior, then this can be resolved for you. it's alleged that benzema though was actually in behalf of blackmailers who were trying to get money out of valbuena. benzema's defence says nothing of the kind, was acting as a friend to valbuena and wanted to advise him about how to excuse himself from a difficult situation. the crux of the matter in court will be that, whether benzema knew that he was acting in an attempt to extort money out of valbuena, even if it wasn't for him, for the others, whereas his defence is going to be that no, he was trying to simply help his team—mate in a difficult situation. let's look at some of the day's other news. a us arbitrator is recommending compensation be paid to a pubic official who was unfairly scapegoated following the city's water contamination scandal. lead poisoning in flint, michigan seven years ago killed 12 people. the arbitrator says

that the state of michigan failed to showjust cause for sacking the of its drinking water office at the time, ——for sacking the offical its drinking water office at the time, liane shekter smith. russia has announced that president putin will not attend the un climate summit starting in glasgow in ten days time. did stress that addressing climate change was one of russia's top foreign policy priorities, and that it would send a delegation to glasgow. the queen has cancelled a two day trip to northern ireland today. buckingham palace said she had reluctantly accepted medical advice to rest for a few days after what has already been a busy few weeks for the 95 year old monarch. 0ur royal correspondent nicholas witchell reports. the queen at windsor castle last night, hosting a reception for global business and other leaders, doing what she's done for nearly 70 years now — representing and gently canvassing support for britain. she was, by all accounts, in good spirits.

it was the latest in a series of engagements over the past eight days. she was at westminster abbey last tuesday, using a walking stick for the first time at a public engagement. two days later, she was in cardiff, for the opening of the welsh parliament. at every engagement, there are lines of guests, all of them anxious to meet her and have a few moments of conversation. in addition, there's the daily business of monarchy — audiences, many of them now by video call. ah, there you are. this was earlier this week. the queen in windsor, speaking via cyberspace to the new governor—general of new zealand. good morning, how are you? oh, gosh, it's good morning, isn't it, to you? this afternoon, this 95—year—old monarch should have been boarding a flight to northern ireland, for a series of engagements there tonight and tomorrow. but this morning, buckingham palace issued this short statement.

the queen is not unwell, but she is 95, and there's obviously a need for anyone of that age to pace themselves sensibly. and that's all, officials insist, that's happening here. there are, it's understood, no covid—related concerns. the queen has, of course, received her double vaccination. what royal officials and doctors will be focused on is her role at the forthcoming cop26 summit, when the queen will be hosting all the visiting leaders. they will want to be sure that she is fully rested for that. nicholas witchell, bbc news. ido i do love that the clean does zoom and still gets confused by time zones, as do i, as do i. to stay with us, plenty more to come, we

will talk about cap 26, the un climate change conference in glasgow, and the role that we will be playing at that summit. so do stay with us for that. hello. a marked change in our weather coming through right now. we are switching air masses. don't worry, it's not particularly painful, but it will be noticeable for the end of the week. it's going to feel much cooler and fresher. we sat in basically tropical air earlier on in the week, with a southerly or south—westerly airstream. for thursday and friday, we are into a plunging northerly. you get the picture, as we switch around to that blue shading in our graphic, moving into cooler air for thursday. stormy conditions across southern britain overnight. widespread gales, more heavy rain, a weather front sinks south. it's been across scotland through wednesday. it gets down into england and wales by the end of the night. behind it, much colder air. patchy frost to start the day for scotland and then quite a nagging northerly wind through the course of the day.

some rain early on across southern counties. for many, beautiful blue skies and sunshine, but there will be some showers, and those showers will be wintry across mountains of scotland, such is the change in our air. gusts of wind up to 40 to 50 mph. these are the temperatures as you'd read them on the thermometer. take those with a pinch of salt. down the north sea coasts, probably going to feel closer to just 5 or six degrees. now, as we look at friday, things do shift on somewhat. a little ridge of high pressure builds in. itjust puts the brakes on those northerly winds somewhat. we will still be sitting in some relatively chilly air, but i think friday will feel a shade milder. there will be a few showers around, particular towards the northwest. there will also be some patchy cloud, but a fine day for friday, lighter winds than thursday. again, perhaps a little cooler than these temperatures would imply. for something milder, we need to look towards the weekend, when this ridge of high pressure will start to shuffle off

perhaps, if anything, on sunday, a more widespread risk of seeing some showers, but they should be interspersed with seeing some pleasant spells of sunshine. the showers heaviest and most frequent across the western side of the uk.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. ahead of november's un climate summit in glasgow, president biden looks to keep his climate credentials intact as he negotiates with fellow democrats over a tax and spending bill. the british home secretary says the threat level facing mps is now "substantial", following the killing of the conservative mp sir david amess. a senate committee in brazil says president bolsanaro should be charged for crimes against humanity over his handling of the covid crisis. and the number of arrest on the us—mexico border reaches an all time high — which underlines the enormous challenge the white house is facing on immigration.

when the world leaders gather in glasgow in 12 days' time for the un's climate conference, cop26, all eyes will be on president biden. the united states is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, and so they must lead by example. the ambition shown by the white house will dictate to a large degree how successful the summit is, and how far others will go in cutting their emissions. china, europe, india and the united states are responsible for over half of global emissions. the us is responsible for 11% of it. president biden had promised earlier this year to reduce the us's emissions by half by 2030. but many of the pledges he has made are tied up in his signature reconciliation bill, which has stalled in the senate. he's desperate to get it passed in time for glasgow. and to get it through, they have shrunk the bill from $3.5 trillion to around $1.9 trillion.

it looks like the clean electricity programme the president favoured is dead, killed byjoe manchin, the senator from the coal—rich state of west virginia. but there's a desperate scramble this week to revive a carbon tax on polluting industries. that forms part of the ongoing negotiations. with me now is professor leah stokes, who's been advising senate democrats on how to craft the clean electricity programme. good to have you with us. how important do you think getting this bill through will be tojoe biden's credibility in glasgow? this bill through will be to joe biden's credibility in glasgow?— bill through will be to joe biden's credibility in glasgow? this bill is absolutely essential _ credibility in glasgow? this bill is absolutely essential for - credibility in glasgow? this bill is absolutely essential for the - credibility in glasgow? this bill is. absolutely essential for the united states to deliver on its climate commitments that president biden campaigned and won on. american pollution by 50% this decade, and we know that this bill is going to form the majority that we need. before

the majority that we need. before the programme got cut, we were on a pathway to meet those targets, but we now have a whole about one third of the pollution cuts from the package with that programme going away. jae package with that programme going awa . g ., , ., package with that programme going awa. , ., ., package with that programme going awa. , ., , away. joe is from the state of west virr inia. away. joe is from the state of west virginia- he — away. joe is from the state of west virginia. he gets _ away. joe is from the state of west virginia. he gets around _ away. joe is from the state of west virginia. he gets around half a - away. joe is from the state of west j virginia. he gets around half a year from dividends. is there a danger there? when they take that out and don't get agreement on carbon tax, it's been watered down to such a degree, it's really not going to impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thin . impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thin about impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thing about climate _ impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thing about climate change _ impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thing about climate change is - impress anyone in glasgow. well, the thing about climate change is that - thing about climate change is that carbon pollution comes from all sectors of our economy, including the power sector, but also industrial pollutions, transportation buildings, so what the leadership in the white house needs to focus on is how to redeploy that $150 billion investment that was going to go towards the clean electricity programme towards other

ways to cut carbon pollution. and they can deliver that, they can find ways, including in the power sector, that will work and passed the house and the senate.— and the senate. when we talk about this tax, because _ and the senate. when we talk about this tax, because the _ and the senate. when we talk about this tax, because the way _ and the senate. when we talk about this tax, because the way that - this tax, because the way that it works is you charge industry for every tonne of carbon dioxide they emit. the danger of that politically is they pass that cost on to the consumer at a time when we have rising cost of living, when fuel bills are already high. it becomes quite exclusive because it could be seen that the biden administration is taxing the middle classes at. senator manchen made it clear that a carbon tax is not really on the agenda. he said that wasn't something he was interested in. what the white house and congress need to do is figure out how the build back better act can deliver an additional $150 billion of investment into climate, and really fill that hole of a third of the pollution cuts

that the clean electricity programme was going to do. because the thing is that programme was going to be about a quarter of our climate spending, and it was going to deliver about a third of our pollution cuts. there are many ways to solve this problem, but it's clear that the leadership in the senate and in the house have to figure out a way to deliver on climate so president biden can meet the goals he has laid out. paris climate so president biden can meet the goals he has laid out.— the goals he has laid out. paris was really about — the goals he has laid out. paris was really about strategy, _ the goals he has laid out. paris was really about strategy, glasgow - the goals he has laid out. paris was really about strategy, glasgow is i really about strategy, glasgow is about implementation. the implementation bid is the hard part, and i wonder whenjoe biden comes here and makes all sorts of pledges because he wanted to be a success, whether there'll be much faith in that. seen with this reconciliation that. seen with this reconciliation that when you have such a narrow majority in both houses, it's really difficult to get anything through. let's not be too negative. let's

remember there's still a big chunk of climate spending on the table and still two thirds of those pollution cuts in the package. not good enough by my count, but it isn't nothing either. president biden and leaders in congress have been working hard to get this over the finish line, and what we need now in the wake of senator manchen saying no to that part of the policy is to find other solutions, to figure out how to still deliver on president biden's climate promises so he can take a bold package with him.— bold package with him. professor leah, we bold package with him. professor leah. we have — bold package with him. professor leah, we have to _ bold package with him. professor leah, we have to leave _ bold package with him. professor leah, we have to leave it - bold package with him. professor leah, we have to leave it there. i leah, we have to leave it there. thank you very much indeed. more now on that story. britain's security services have judged that mps are facing a "substantial threat" to their safety in the wake of the murder of sir david amess. let's bring in our political correspondent, jonathan blake. he's at westminster for us. what basis is she making at the statement?— basis is she making at the statement? ., ,, . ., , ., .,

statement? the home secretary made a late nirht statement? the home secretary made a late night statement _ statement? the home secretary made a late night statement to _ statement? the home secretary made a late night statement to mps _ statement? the home secretary made a late night statement to mps in _ statement? the home secretary made a late night statement to mps in the - late night statement to mps in the house of commons here at westminster, and she said there was no specific credible threats to mps. there was no intelligence or information to suggest that, but the joint terrorism analysis centre here in the uk did deem that the terror threat level facing mps specifically should be raised from moderate to substantial. to put that in contact, moderate is number two on a 5—point scale, and it means an attack as possible but substantial is one level up. it means an attack is likely. that brings it into line with the terror threat level that is set for the uk as a whole. priti patel said the security services would adjust their operational

posture. but she didn't go into detail what that that would look like. ., , ., , detail what that that would look like. ., , , ., , ., like. the obvious question is what ha--ened like. the obvious question is what happened that — like. the obvious question is what happened that constituency - like. the obvious question is what| happened that constituency level? like. the obvious question is what - happened that constituency level? do they get protection? what sort of things can they put in place to protect mps?— protect mps? well, there is a difference _ protect mps? well, there is a difference between _ protect mps? well, there is a l difference between high-profile difference between high—profile ministers and mps. the prime minister and some members to get protection wherever they go, and are guarded in public every second of every day. but that is not the case for the vast majority of mps, and thatis for the vast majority of mps, and that is one reason why we saul when sir david amess was stabbed, someone was able to get access to him. priti patel said she want to see more

consistency. some do have a police presence, but others don't. it doesn't seem like we will get any public updated advice for mps to follow, but we are told that the police on a regional basis, on a case—by—case basis, are in touch with each individual in the and discussing with them the specific arrangements that they have in place or should put in place.— or should put in place. jonathan blake, or should put in place. jonathan blake. thank — or should put in place. jonathan blake, thank you. _ the united states detained more than 1.7 million migrants along its border with mexico in the year to september, and the number of arrests soared to the highest level ever recorded in a single year. no question immigration is president biden's biggest headache. he promised during the transition a more humane policym but it would be a cautious approach. well, they are short of that.

but his record and the policies they've enacted are sure become a majorfocus in the next year's midterm elections. i'm joined now by former department of homeland security spokesperson, david lapan, in washington. nice to have you with us. they skyrocketed, let's be frank, in the months after resident biden took office. what changed?— months after resident biden took office. what changed? well, most of what changed _ office. what changed? well, most of what changed is _ office. what changed? well, most of what changed is the _ office. what changed? well, most of what changed is the migration - what changed is the migration patterns, and they do every year. one of the things that we see driving migration in the southwest border are conditions in other countries, whether it's poverty, corruption, violence or natural disasters. and they have a pandemic on top of that and there are still a lot of desperate people. but when ou look lot of desperate people. but when you look at _ lot of desperate people. but when you look at the — lot of desperate people. but when you look at the policies, _ lot of desperate people. but when you look at the policies, i - lot of desperate people. but when you look at the policies, i want - lot of desperate people. but when you look at the policies, i want to |

you look at the policies, i want to list them — the construction on the border wall, the remain mexico policy, he announced a 100 a pause on most deportations. the doll that create an impression south in a border that it was easier to get into the us — — did all that? i into the us — — did allthat? i think that personally is part of that. the cartels that will cause people, migrants to pay to make that journey north, will give the impression that the us is open. but the other thing to remind people is during the trump administration, at the beginning of the administration, there was a lot of harsh rhetoric, there was a lot of harsh rhetoric, there was a lot of harsh rhetoric, there was the start of the building of the border wall and the numbers went up rather than down. so, it's not always a function of the messages as much as the desperation of people making thatjourney. it’s

of people making that “ourney. it's an of people making that journey. it's an important point. let's talk about kamala harris, because she went down to central america to get to the root of the problem. to stop the flow coming through the central american countries. these figures would be somewhat embarrassing for her because they don't seem to have slowed at all. fine her because they don't seem to have slowed at all-— slowed at all. one thing, and it roes slowed at all. one thing, and it goes back _ slowed at all. one thing, and it goes back to — slowed at all. one thing, and it goes back to what _ slowed at all. one thing, and it goes back to what i... - slowed at all. one thing, and it i goes back to what i... inaudible i think we goes back to what i... inaudible i think we just — goes back to what i... inaudible i think we just lost _ goes back to what i... inaudible i think we just lost david. - goes back to what i... inaudible i think we just lost david. are - goes back to what |. .. inaudible| i think we just lost david. are you there? carry—on. i think we just lost david. are you there? carry-on.— i think we just lost david. are you there? carry-on. sorry. we are still seeinr there? carry-on. sorry. we are still seeing families _ there? carry-on. sorry. we are still seeing families coming _ there? carry-on. sorry. we are still seeing families coming from - there? carry-on. sorry. we are still| seeing families coming from central american countries, but also adult males from mexico. we are seeing haitians and south americans. while the vice president has spoken about addressing some of the root causes in central america, migration patterns are well beyond what's

happening injust patterns are well beyond what's happening in just those countries. you wouldn't bet against this being the key topic in the midterm elections, would you? itlat the key topic in the midterm elections, would you? not at all. certainly. — elections, would you? not at all. certainly. the — elections, would you? not at all. certainly, the republicans - elections, would you? not at all. certainly, the republicans will i certainly, the republicans will continue to hammer on president biden and vice president harris on this particular topic.— this particular topic. david lapan there. this particular topic. david lapan there- lovely — this particular topic. david lapan there. lovely to _ this particular topic. david lapan there. lovely to have _ this particular topic. david lapan there. lovely to have you - this particular topic. david lapan there. lovely to have you with i this particular topic. david lapani there. lovely to have you with us. stay with us on bbc news. still to come... the home secretary has asked police to assess urgently the scale there've been claims too that some have even been drugged by injection in cities including nottingham, edinburgh, liverpool and glasgow. 0ur correspondentjo black reports. after covid, it was supposed to be

the freshers' week they never had. but on this night out at a club in nottingham, second—year university student sarah buckle became so unwell, she ended up in hospital. out of nowhere, i seemed to just stop communicating. i couldn't talk. it was as if someone had just turned a switch. the 19—year—old believes she was the victim of an injection spiking. i was almost screaming out for help and then almost going unconscious and coming back round and choking, and they could just tell immediately, wait, it's not that she's had too much to drink, something's really, really wrong. i have no memory of anything. i think my earliest memory will have been around 9am. my hand was throbbing and a bruise was starting to develop. posts on social media talk of similar incidents, and now a petition calling for compulsory searches at nightclubs has been signed by more than 130,000 people. and groups from more than 30 universities around the uk have joined a campaign calling for a boycott of nightclubs the problem of people having their drinks spiked in night—time venues has been reported for many years,

but now there are new fears about the rise of injection spiking. however, only a small number of police forces across the uk say they've had reports of this happening. the home secretary, priti patel, has now asked police forces for an urgent update on this issue. and today, at the home affairs select committee, questions about the scale of the problem. do you think police forces are taking this seriously enough? every chief constable takes this as a top priority. - violence against women in general. sarah says it will be a long time before she can enjoy another night out, but she hopes her story will be a warning to others. if you feel unwell, slightly, orjust think you've had brazil has the highest covid death toll in the world — they have lost 600,000 people. today, a parliamentary inquiry is delivering its verdict on president bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic. 0vernight senators decided to remove serious crimes from the document, including homicide and indigenous

genocide, but the brazilian leader is still being accused of crimes against humanity and the misuse of public funds. the president says he is guilty of nothing. 0ur correspondent katy watson is in brasilia and sent this report. but despite president bolsonaro's bold predictions, covid—19 wreaked havoc in brazil. there is no normalfor the hundreds of thousands of families who lost loved ones, and as each new grave was dug, denial at the top continued. all that the government's done and not done has been picked apart in the senate. like the collapse of the health care system in the amazon. at the beginning of this year, hospitals there were running out of oxygen, people suffocating to death. but the government was accused

of underplaying the crisis, senators pointing to our report as proof the situation was worse than claimed. and then came the scandal at one of the country's largest health care providers. accused, among other things, of giving unproven drugs to elderly patients and covering up deaths of patients who died of covid—19. prevent senior, though, denies the accusations. tadeu spent four months in icu, the scars from being intubated still very visible. his family refused to believe his only option was palliative care, and thanks to them, he's here today. families were betrayed, tadeu tells me. "they feel the weight on their conscience — but they could have done something, like my family did. it was an ideological choice made, not a medical one, with my treatment." for the senator in charge of publishing the final

report, its findings are a foregone conclusion. but the process is not without its critics. for bolsonaro's supporters, the enquiry has been seen as biased and vengeful — but everyone agrees it's dented bolsonaro's popularity. 600,000 deaths and counting. while brazil buries the dead,

crimes are still being unearthed. but it's up to federal prosecutors to take this prosecution further and punish those responsible. katy watson, bbc news, in sao paulo. 0n the other side of the world, russia is seeing another surge in coronavirus cases, reporting just over a thousand deaths today. president putin has now endorsed the cabinets decision to introduce a non—working period starting october 30th and extending through the following week, when four of the seven days are state holidays. it's a chance, he says, for russia to get on top of the virus. here's our moscow correspondent, steve rosenberg. in russia, numbers keep going up. health officials recorded another record number of covid —related deaths in the last 24 hours, 1028. in its reach the point where the kremlin has decided it has to do something to slow the spread of the virus, so today, president putin

approved a workplace shutdown across the country for about a week ago. from october the 30th to november the 2nd, businesses will basically close. in those regions of russia where the situation is particularly bad will be allowed to shut down sooner and for longer. the kremlin also called on russians to go and get vaccinated. he said we can see dangerous consequences from the slow pace of vaccination. up till now, many russians have ignored official calls to go and get the jobs back. 0nly calls to go and get the jobs back. only a third of the population are fully vaccinated, and president putin referred to the reluctance to protect themselves and their loved ones today, he simply doesn't understand it. the problem is that vaccine scepticism is widespread in russia, and so is mistrust of the authorities. many people simply don't believe what those in power tell them. even if the prime

minister or the president goes on tela is indian and held russia the vaccine is safe, many here pay no attention — — television. i vaccine is safe, many here pay no attention - - television.— attention - - television. i want to brinr attention - - television. i want to bring you — attention - - television. i want to bring you a _ attention - - television. i want to bring you a quick _ attention - - television. i want to bring you a quick update - attention - - television. i want to bring you a quick update on - attention - - television. i want to bring you a quick update on the l bring you a quick update on the human remains that were found today in the florida nature reserve where authorities have been searching for brian more injury. here's fbi special agent michael mcpherson speaking in the last few minutes. as you are aware, the fbi and partners — as you are aware, the fbi and partners have searched the area for the reserve — partners have searched the area for the reserve for brian laundry, a person— the reserve for brian laundry, a person of— the reserve for brian laundry, a person of interest in the murder of gabby pitino. earlier today, investigators found what appeared to be human— investigators found what appeared to be human remains along with personal items— be human remains along with personal items such _ be human remains along with personal items such as a backpack and notebook— items such as a backpack and notebook belonging to ryan laundrie. these _ notebook belonging to ryan laundrie. these items were found in an area

that up— these items were found in an area that up until recently had been underwater. 0ur evidence response team _ underwater. 0ur evidence response team is— underwater. 0ur evidence response team is on — underwater. 0ur evidence response team is on scene using all available forensic— team is on scene using all available forensic resources to process the area _ forensic resources to process the area it's — forensic resources to process the area. it's likely the team will be on scene — area. it's likely the team will be on scene for several days. i know you have — on scene for several days. i know you have a — on scene for several days. i know you have a lot of questions, but we don't have — you have a lot of questions, but we don't have all the answers yet. we are working — don't have all the answers yet. we are working diligently to get those answers— are working diligently to get those answers for you. we are grateful for the dedication, the professionalism of the _ the dedication, the professionalism of the police department and all their— of the police department and all their partners. just of the police department and all their partners.— of the police department and all their partners. just to remind you that brian laundrie _ their partners. just to remind you that brian laundrie parents - their partners. just to remind you that brian laundrie parents werel their partners. just to remind you i that brian laundrie parents were at the scene earlier and identified a backpack that were sounds near those human remains. if you were watching last night, you will have heard danjohnson describing the scene on the spanish island of la palma, where the volcano continues to erupt. and in that report, he talked about a number of dogs that had been left behind in the panic, and were now stranded by the molten lava that's

surrounded some of the houses. well, today, the authorities set about trying to rescue these three dogs, and dan was watching. all life has been caught in this eruption and these three got left behind, trapped by lava. they have been fed by a drone and are now looking to the skies for rescue. and here it is — the flying retriever, a snare from the air coming to lower the pups in and lift them up, up and away. very, very, very good. we are positive. we are motivated and we are going to try, we're going try, 0k? there's sort of rescue mission can only be considered because of the fact human life has been so successfully protected here so far, but that doesn't mean that this eruption is without any risk. so, scientific teams are busy monitoring every aspect of the volcano, its lava and its gases, the silent, unseen, airborne threat.

anna is here from manchester. i am starting my second year of my phd, so i never imagined i would be able to come here and see a live volcano. so, it's incredible experience for me. really bad for people, of course. i'm really sad about all the loss, but for me, an amazing experience. pulling off this daring dog rescue is not easy and the canine airlift is currently on pause because they can't actually find them. i think we can do it, we can do it, ok? but like so many people here, this team is dedicated and determined. dan johnson, bbc news. the snare from the air, there's no way. i can't get my dog on that. the ten o'clock news are coming up. laura is here. see you tomorrow,

bye—bye. hello there. wednesday was still quite mild for many parts of the country, just not as mild as it was at the start of the week, and for the next few days, it is certainly going to feel colder. that's because instead of the warm southerly winds that we had at the beginning of the week, the wind direction switches around completely to a northerly, and that will bring in much colder air. now, after the storm moves away from the english channel overnight and some early rain clears the south of england, it's sunshine on thursday, but also some showers, especially for scotland, northern ireland, some coming over the irish sea into western parts of england and wales. head further inland towards the east, probably going to be dry with plenty of sunshine. those showers, though, still of a wintry flavour over the mountains in scotland, and there'll be a cold wind blowing in as well, a strong wind taking the edge off these temperatures even. 0nly eight degrees in northern scotland.

we may struggle up to 14 along the south coast of england, so certainly a chillier feeling day on thursday, and that colder air is still in place for friday as well. we are going to find this little bump of high pressure coming in from the atlantic — only very slowly, mind you. there'll be fair bit of cloud for the western side of the uk, and this is where we're more likely to have some showers, especially in the morning. a lot of those will fade away in the afternoon. head towards the east, the best of the sunshine, it should be dry. the winds not as strong on friday, so it won't feel quite as cold. temperatures again around 11—14 degrees. now, let's head into the weekend, and actually, saturday's not looking too bad for many places. things are slowing down. this weather front coming in from the atlantic is now a little bit slower. so, many places will be dry during the day on saturday. again, the sunshine more likely to be across more eastern part of the uk, but this rain holding off in the west until quite later on in the day. and with more of the southerly wind

ahead of that reign, and with more of a southerly wind ahead of that rain, we are going to find temperatures more widely14— 15 celsius or so. so, fairly mild, really, i think, on saturday, just unsure as to how much sunshine there'll be. and then that weather front pushes its way across northern ireland in the evening, into scotland, then down into england and wales. there's that weather front there, that rain slowly pushing its way towards the southeast. and then behind that, we'll get some sunshine coming through, but also some showers. these could be heavy and thundery, especially across western scotland and northern ireland, but temperatures, again, around about 13—15 degrees, could make 16 even in the southeast of england. that weather front does finally move through, and with low pressure turning up towards iceland, we've got this run of winds coming in from off the atlantic, and that's going to bring with it quite a showery airstream for the start of the new week. and these showers could merge into some longer spells of rain across western scotland, northern ireland for a while, and also the northwest of england. again, towards the southeast, this is where we've got the drier and sunny weather,

and temperatures hitting 14—15 degrees. now, let's look further ahead. looking out into the atlantic, there's much more undulation in the jet stream pattern, those upper level winds, and it now looks like we're steering those upper—level winds more towards the north of the uk. still feeding in the lower—level winds and the weather coming in from the atlantic, of course, but we have of course, but we've got more of the uk into some quite mild air throughout next week. so, temperature—wise, we're looking at 12—13 degrees across some northern areas to highs of around 16—17, maybe even 18 in the southeast, but it is still quite unsettled, some spells of rain followed by some sunshine, and also some showers. that's it, goodbye.

tonight at ten, covid restrictions are likely to be reimposed in england if progress in giving booster vaccinations is not satisfactory. as the uk reports one of the highest weekly figures of new infections anywhere in the world, ministers say the booster is essential. we've been in a race, a race between the vaccine and the virus, and although we're ahead in that race, the gap is narrowing. it raises the prospect of the reintroduction of mandatory face coverings and working from home, as health experts warn it's a critical time. this is the lesson we must learn from the past — to prepare for what looks like an inevitable challenging period, rather than to cross our fingers and stumble into a crisis. we'll have more details, as ministers warn that the number

of new infections could rise to 100,000 a day.