this is bbc news. the headlines at 8pm. unless the government puts further restrictions in place, the uk faces a substantial wave of omicron infections next month that might overwhelm the nhs — that's the stark warning from scientists. another 633 omicron cases are recorded in the last 2a hours — the uk's biggest dailyjump in omicron infections so far. new rules on face masks, self isolation and vaccine passports will be voted on by mps in the commons on tuesday — according to government sources. at least 70 people have been killed as a series of devastating tornadoes strike the central united states, focusing on kentucky. this has been the most devastating tornado event in our state's history

and, for those who have seen it, what it has done here in grace county and elsewhere, it is indescribable. britain warns russia it will face severe consequences if it invades ukraine — a g7 meeting of foreign ministers is discussing rising tensions. and foreign secretary liz truss joins nick robinson in this week's episode of political thinking, that's in half an hour. good evening. health officials have renewed their call for everyone who's eligible to get their covid boosterjab. new modelling suggests the uk could be facing a bigger wave of infections than back injanuary. a further 633 omicron cases have been recorded in the past 2a hours — the uk's biggest dailyjump

in omicron infections so far. but there's still uncertainty about how many people may need hospital care, and how much pressure will be on the nhs. here's our health correspondent, katharine da costa. at vaccine centres around the uk, including this one in grimsby, the race is on to get even more jabs into arms and boost our defences against what may become the biggest wave of covid infections we've seen so far. it's more worrying, i think, because we don't know exactly what's going to happen, so it's betterjust to be safe. ijust want to protect people as well that i'm going to be in contact with. the new variant omicron is spreading fast, doubling every 2.5 days. new modelling has looked at what that might mean for hospital admissions and deaths in england under plan b with greater use of masks and working from home. it's early work, but researchers say further measures may be needed. what we do know is that very

stringent restrictions come with their own downsides that can be devastating for individuals, for their families and for businesses especially leading into christmas, so i think policymakers have some very, very difficult decisions to make. so, what does this mean for cases? well, researchers expect there to be a substantial wave, bigger than last winter when daily cases peaked at more than 50,000. there is still a lot of uncertainty about how many people might end up in hospital, because we still don't know whether omicron causes a more severe illness and many people are fully vaccinated, which should help. by the end of april, deaths may range from 25,000 to 75,000 depending on how well vaccines perform, but scientists are hopeful they will still provide good protection against serious disease. we know that the booster doses do give very effective protection. we don't know how long it's going to last. it may not be very long lasting, but those booster doses are going to be critical,

but we can'tjust rely on the vaccine campaign to control this, we have to also wear masks and do all those other things that we have learned to do. this winter, we're in a better place thanks to vaccines, boosters and new antiviral drugs. the government says current measures in england are proportionate but won't hesitate to take further action if needed to protect lives and the nhs. professor christina pagel is a member of independent sage and is professor of research at university college london. she told us omicron could put huge pressure on the nhs very quickly. the problem with omicron is that because it can re—infect people and infect people who have had one or two doses of the vaccine, it means we have millions more people who are getting infections with omicron who would not with delta and if you have high enough numbers, you will have enough people who need hospital treatment to put severe

pressure on health services, and because it is so much more transmissible than delta, you are in a situation where even if you do not get that sick, you can potentially infect people who will get really sick. i think as a nation, we want to protect the nhs. it is already exhausted after nearly two years of this pandemic, they are already under severe, pressure and any extra pressure from covid reduces services for everybody, and we do not want to be in a situation where you can't get sick in winter, so i think from just a community point of view, we want to reduce infection. i spoke to professor rupert pearse, who is an intensive care consultant at a large london hospital and speaks on behalf of the intensive care society. it's not just covid. we are dealing with a lot

of other problems, too. our emergency departments and hospitals are under huge pressure and there are long queues of patients waiting for beds in the hospital which makes things very busy in emergency departments. primary care, our gp colleagues are under a lot of pressure as well, so at the moment, this winter, it is notjust about intensive care and finding intensive care beds, it is about the wider strain on the nhs and how we juggle the range of problems, one of which is covid. and one thing knocks to another, presumably. one of the consequences you do not know yet is whether the restrictions imposed on care homes will delay discharge, for example, for elderly patients who perhaps need to go into a residential care facility and at the moment are still in hospital. there are so many unponderables with this, even before you get into whether or not omicron is more dangerous for patients than delta has been? that is exactly right. the problem that the nhs has its uncertainty. we have to be prepared for any eventuality, so it doesn't really matter so much what we think is going to happen. unless we can be sure of it,

we still need to be prepared for a range of different eventualities which might include a big covid wave, but it might also mean that we still need to do whatever we can do to keep surgery going, so that patients who need urgent cancer care, for example, are still guessing that, and that is really the challenge, it's the uncertainty. the nhs needs to be as agile and as flexible as possible and i think it has been the most agile and flexible it has been in the last two years than i can ever remember, but still the challenges come. what proportion of the patients who are in icu at the moment are with covid, or the effects of covid, how many are vaccinated as opposed to unvaccinated? well, i can only tell you in my experience of where i work, it is about 20% or so, one in five patients who are vaccinated. what is notable at the bedside is they seem to be less ill, they do not seem to need a ventilator

when other patients do, but certainly, i mean, this week i was looking after one patient who hasn't needed to be ventilated and had been extremely relieved to have had the vaccine and spoke very strongly of his initial doubts about getting vaccinated and how glad he was that he had done it, and so i think a big plea to everybody, we realise that sometimes there are worries about treatments like vaccinations, but it really is making a difference, it is saving a huge number of lives. do you understand how difficult it is for people to start to limit their behaviour on the possibility that this could be very bad, but not knowing at this stage whether it will make ay difference? do i understand? yes. i am a member of society, too. one of my daughters had her a—levels cancelled, one of my close relatives had major surgery

delayed for some time, i have personally experienced all the challenges and difficulties that public health measures have brought for all of us, so, yes, of course, we understand, but i think we still need to be aware that the nhs is not going to function and be as reliable and be that safety net that we are used to if it gets overwhelmed during the winter. the government's latest coronavirus figures for the uk have just been released, and they show there were just over 5a,000 new infections recorded, in the latest 2a hour period. there were 132 deaths — that's of people who died within 28 days of a positive test. and more than 22.5 million people have received their boosterjab. new guidance has been issued for care home visits in england as a result of the surge in omicron infections. the stricter rules could be

heartbreaking for families. from wednesday, residents will be limited to three visitors as well as a friend or relative nominated as their essential care giver. the national care association has yet to be told whether the three people can come in at the same time or rather they can be from different households. government sources have told the bbc that will be commons votes about new measures and whether vaccination should be mandatory for front line nhs staff in england. some mps are publicly a person of the measures but labour says it will back the government in full. out of correspondent came in earlier and explained each vote in more detail. what the government is now saying it is going to do is there will be free verse on this plan be moving england. there will be one on the expansion on the need for face masks and lots of settings. there isn't a vast amount of controversy in parliament around that. there will be another on people being able to

test their way out of self—preservation if they come into contact with someone who has tested positive for the omicron variant. that also will not encounter much resistance. then there will be the vote on the covid passport. there will be resistance to that, we think from around 60 conservative mps, a big rebellion, no doubt about it. it means the government will be reliant on labour votes to get that through, but there will be those labour votes and a real world terms these measures will come into place, and in political terms governments hate relying on the opposition to get their business through because it makes them look feeble. there will be a fourth vote, unconnected to plan b and they went to plan, around the idea of making it mandatory for front line nhs staff in england to be vaccinated. i am told i understand this evening that labour will also back the government on that. they had previously been

opposed to it but they will back the government now on that irrespective of any conservative rebellion, that will pass, that will happen. we will pass, that will happen. no sur - rise will pass, that will happen. no surprise that the government were going to do this, they saw this as the obvious legislative opportunity to get it all out of the way in one go. to get it all out of the way in one no. , ~' to get it all out of the way in one no. , ~ ., ,., to get it all out of the way in one go. they were keen for some time on the idea of was — go. they were keen for some time on the idea of nhs staff _ go. they were keen for some time on the idea of nhs staff having - go. they were keen for some time on the idea of nhs staff having to - go. they were keen for some time on the idea of nhs staff having to get i the idea of nhs staff having to get a vaccine, plenty in government and beyond .2 presidents, there are otherjabs and vaccinations that are mandatory for front line nhs staff, so in that sense they can point to that precedent. they have already done it as far as care homes are concerned. the next step is to nhs staff stop it looks as though those votes will come on tuesday before parliament is packing up for christmas on thursday. m50 parliament is packing up for christmas on thursday. also the day ofthe christmas on thursday. also the day of the north — christmas on thursday. also the day of the north shropshire _ christmas on thursday. also the dayj of the north shropshire by-election, of the north shropshire by—election, so who knows what that might bring? i would like your thoughts on where the government finds itself, the

pause in hostilities whilst various reports and investigations go on but it does not mean that the stories have stopped all the speculation. i was talking to someone in government who has bracing themselves with the metaphorical tin hat on for the arrival of sunday newspaper front pages which you will be talking about a little later.— pages which you will be talking about a little later. 11:30pm this evenina! about a little later. 11:30pm this evening! the — about a little later. 11:30pm this evening! the government - about a little later. 11:30pm this evening! the government are i about a little later. 11:30pm this | evening! the government are not lickin: evening! the government are not licking their _ evening! the government are not licking their lips _ evening! the government are not licking their lips at _ evening! the government are not licking their lips at the _ evening! the government are not licking their lips at the prospect l licking their lips at the prospect of devouring that. they are conscious that it might not be all that comfortable. there is no doubt with cis has been as bumpy a period as borisjohnson has faced since he has been in power as prime minister. hgppy has been in power as prime minister. happy anniversary, prime minister. he has had a difficult time personally when he was ill with covid but politically this is the most awkward time, no doubt about it. plenty of his own supporters privately and publicly, within the party, but in the broader

conservative family, conservative supporting newspapers asking questions about how long he might be around, if he is losing his political magic as they see it, it is very difficult, but we must draw a distinction between that which is real and the real world consequence of these votes to come, which will pass. of these votes to come, which will ass. , of these votes to come, which will ass, , ~ ., , ., of these votes to come, which will ass. , a, ,., ., ~ of these votes to come, which will lass. , m, ,., ., " ., pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. pass. chris mason talking to me earlier- we _ pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. we will _ pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. we will find _ pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. we will find out - pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. we will find out how- pass. chris mason talking to me earlier. we will find out how the story of the potential conservative rebellion and the allegations swirling around the prime minister feature on the front pages at 10:30pm and 11:30pm. joining mejoe mayes and ros altmann. the headlines. unless the government puts further restrictions in place the uk faces a substantial wave of omicron infection that might ever run the nhs, that is a stark warning from scientist. new rules on facemasks, self—isolation and vaccine passports will be voted by

mps in the commons on tuesday. the government has told the bbc. at least 70 people have been killed as a series of devastating tornado struck the central united states, focusing on kentucky. let's stay with that story. those terrible pictures that you saw taken from a drawing or light aircraft in the immediate aftermath of the tornadoes. in america, more than 70 people are thought to have died, after a series of tornados hit several states. kentucky has been worst affected, with the governor saying it's been one of the toughest nights in the state's history. in all, 30 tornadoes, were reported across a large swathe of the southeast. nomia iqbal has the full story. the us national weather service had issued several tornado warnings for multiple us states. in illinois this amazon warehouse was ripped apart by the storm after the roof partially collapsed. emergency responders have been working through the night.

up up to 100 people are inside the building. they had been on the night shift in the run—up to christmas. theirfamily members had been trying to find them. he was on the phone with me while it was happening. the tornado was hitting the back of the building, the trucks were coming in. i told him tojump out the truck and duck. i decided to come down here to see what was going on. i had no idea the building look that bad, and i'mjust... i'm worried sick. ijust want to know if he's 0k. tornadoes tore a path through 200 miles, hitting the small town of mayfield. it's one thing when we know - the potential of the atmosphere. it's another thing when we it actually becomes a reality. i this was the bank. that's what's left of. the fire department. there used to be two storeys to that building — now there is one. - a black cylinder swept across the ground, slamming into a candle factory. the governor fears dozens may have been killed inside. this will be, i believe, the deadliest tornado system to ever run through kentucky. earlier this morning, about 5am,

we were pretty sure we would lose over 50 kentuckians. i'm now certain that number is north of 70. it may in fact end up exceeding 100. in arkansas, the storm hit a nursing home, killing at least one person, injuring several and trapping more than a dozen others inside. local reports have described it as a mass casualties event. one official called it "heartbreaking". millions of americans are being urged to prepare for weather alerts nationwide, as the storm continues to wreak havoc across the country. nomia iqbal, bbc news, washington. earlier, we spoke to the meteorologist you saw that report, and he spoke about the defendant — back the extent of the damage. this

ma be the back the extent of the damage. in 3 may be the longest tracking tornado in united states history, on the ground for over 200 miles. we are just looking at a small piece of this 200 miles. the amazing thing is, we have not had as many deaths or casualties as, if you just look at this, the fact that people survived, some of these houses that we are going by, is remarkable. christmas, it is two weeks until christmas. there are christmas decorations miles from here, the debris that was lofted from this tornado was up at about 35,000 feet so, so that is about the altitude a commercial airliner cruises that, maybe a little higher doing across the atlantic. the debris from this tornado was dropped miles and miles from the actual tornado. i don't even know how to describe this other

than showing this to you. for anybody who has never lived in an area of the world who gets tornadoes, this is the result. it is utter devastation. it tornadoes, this is the result. it is utter devastation.— utter devastation. it looks like a war zone- _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some of - utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some of the - utter devastation. it looks like a l war zone. will some of the people utter devastation. it looks like a - war zone. will some of the people in this town have got out? world they have tried to flee, before the storm hit? that have tried to flee, before the storm hit? ~ ., , ., ., ., hit? at our tv station we gave everybody _ hit? at our tv station we gave everybody advance _ hit? at our tv station we gave everybody advance notice - hit? at our tv station we gave everybody advance notice thatj hit? at our tv station we gave i everybody advance notice that if they did not have a tornado shelter, that they should head north, so people didn't get out and they were out of town as soon as we gave them that morning, they drove in their car and left. so a lot of people did leave town and thankfully they were not here for it. but unfortunately some of those that were here were in that factory and many of them did not make it. it honestly looks like

a bomb has gone off. no other way to describe it. that a bomb has gone off. no other way to describe it. . , a bomb has gone off. no other way to describe it. ., , ., , , ., describe it. that is absolutely how it looks to arab _ describe it. that is absolutely how it looks to arab viewers, - describe it. that is absolutely how it looks to arab viewers, who - describe it. that is absolutely how it looks to arab viewers, who are l it looks to arab viewers, who are seeing this right now on the bbc. this is the absolute heart of the storm therein kentucky. and people who had their ways and means they get out before the storm hit were the lucky ones. i guess if you didn't own a car, you cannot get out. , ., , ., didn't own a car, you cannot get out. , ., i. ,., ., didn't own a car, you cannot get out. , ., i. ., . out. let me show you some more. we 'ust not out. let me show you some more. we just got out- _ out. let me show you some more. we just got out. yesterday _ out. let me show you some more. we just got out. yesterday it _ out. let me show you some more. we just got out. yesterday it was - just got out. yesterday it was almost 80 degrees, and it was humid. and the contrast now, i don't know how this looks to you on this cell connection and around the world, but if you look at this on google earth, there would be a business there, a bank there, and it isjust, there is

nothing left. there are buildings, there are pieces of bricks, but if you were in a mobile home or a poorly manufactured house you are not surviving this. the poorly manufactured house you are not surviving this.— not surviving this. the devastation in ma ield not surviving this. the devastation in mayfield in _ not surviving this. the devastation in mayfield in the _ not surviving this. the devastation in mayfield in the heart _ not surviving this. the devastation in mayfield in the heart of - not surviving this. the devastation in mayfield in the heart of greys . in mayfield in the heart of greys county in kentucky. from los angeles peter bos has given me an update, and this is the latest. this peter bos has given me an update, and this is the latest.— and this is the latest. as every hour passes — and this is the latest. as every hour passes we _ and this is the latest. as every hour passes we are _ and this is the latest. as every hour passes we are getting - and this is the latest. as every hour passes we are getting a l and this is the latest. as every - hour passes we are getting a better idea of their stale —— scale of what has happened and kentucky seems to be the epicentre of this, this candle factory were more than 110 people were working as of a couple of hours ago, only a0 of those people had been rescued. it is a real problem and difficulty for the local emergency services. the local police station was destroyed. part of the fire station. and to respond

to this, firefighters had to fight their way out of their own building. much of the recruitment had been destroyed so you can imagine how difficult it was and how difficult it continues to be —— the equipment had been destroyed. equipment is beginning to arrive from other regions. this is quite a remote area. they are getting some assistance. we expect a federal disaster to be declared. that will come from the white house. that will provide alleviate —— it will provide additionalfunds and provide alleviate —— it will provide additional funds and alleviate the financial nightmare for the local authorities but as far as a search and rescue operation is concerned, it is a painstaking task, likely to go on for some time.— it is a painstaking task, likely to go on for some time. kentucky is a relatively rural _ go on for some time. kentucky is a relatively rural states _ go on for some time. kentucky is a relatively rural states are - relatively rural states are presumably just the logistics relatively rural states are presumablyjust the logistics of operating there, and getting federal help, from fema, the federal emergency administration, even that will take time. emergency administration, even that

will take time-— will take time. exactly, and because it is remote. — will take time. exactly, and because it is remote, as _ will take time. exactly, and because it is remote, as are _ will take time. exactly, and because it is remote, as are many _ will take time. exactly, and because it is remote, as are many of - will take time. exactly, and because it is remote, as are many of the - it is remote, as are many of the other affected areas. we are talking about six states, arkansas, illinois, missouri, mississippi, tennessee as well as kentucky. a huge operation from a federal perspective with the assistance they have to provide. and this is quite an unprecedented situation just in its sheer scale and the fact that it is happening in december. tornadoes usually strike in the middle of the year, april, may, june, generally the time that local people expect tornadoes like this. it seems to be a perfect storm of conditions, very unusually warm weather over the past few days, the kind of weather you might expect in april or may, that contributes towards these tornadoes, but tornadoes are not fully understood in terms of why they happen and what can happen and because the kind of ferocity we have seen but all of these factors making

it extremely difficult for the authorities in the first place to have predicted what happened and how to deal with it. that have predicted what happened and how to deal with it— to deal with it. that was peter bowes in los _ to deal with it. that was peter bowes in los angeles. - to deal with it. that was peter bowes in los angeles. the - to deal with it. that was peter . bowes in los angeles. the mayor to deal with it. that was peter - bowes in los angeles. the mayor of mayfield has described his town as having been reduced to matchsticks. a man has died after being shot by armed police near kensington palace in west london. officers say they stopped a vehicle at about 3.20pm this afternoon, shots were fired and a man was pronounced dead at the scene. police say they are not treating the incident as terrorism. the treasury has admitted some officials did have drinks in their office in november last year but has denied this amounted to a party. the times has reported that about two dozen civil servants held a drinks party to celebrate finishing work on the chancellor's spending review. a treasury spokesperson described what happened as "impromptu drinks around their desks" and added that there was no in—person departmental party last christmas. foreign ministers from the g7

group of wealthy nations are meeting in liverpool this evening with talks focused on how to counter threats posed by china and russia. the build up of russian troops on the border with ukraine is high on the agenda. james landale explains. they estimate there's about 100,000 russian troops on the border of the ukraine. russia says that is merely defensive manoeuvres. the west fears that actually the potential, at least, of an invasion, so they are doing everything they possibly can to deter that invasion. i spoke a few moments ago to the eu foreign policy chief and he told me we are in "deter mode". they are doing that by threatening what they call severe economic consequences if russia were to invade, but they have not been specific about that at the moment and one of the issues that is being debated here in liverpool is what should those severe economic conditions be? one example is the issue of this big

new pipeline which is being laid between russia and germany to provide a huge amount of gas. if that were to be shut down, that would certainly hit russia hard, but it would also hit europe's economy, too, so those are the kinds of trade—offs that the g7 foreign ministers are trying to grapple with today so they can get the issue right of deterring russia but also being credible at the same time. james langdale at the g7 meeting in the report there. nick robinson will be hearing from the foreign secretary liz truss in a few minutes. 60 years after her late father was my pioneering flight, the daughter of an astronaut has made a trip to the edge of space. she was with six people aboard the blue origin commercial spacecraft making a ten minute trip from rural texas, reaching an altitude ofjust over 100 kilometres before descending

back to earth as you saw. the spacecraft is named after her dad, alan, who made his flight in 1961. what a lovely 50th anniversary present. time for a look at the weather. into next week it stays relatively mild and settles down thanks to high pressure. sunday is mild but it will be cloudy with rain. the mild air has been working in from the west through today. tangled in these weather fronts which has brought quite a bit of cloud and outbreaks of rain. you can see the milder colours spreading particularly across england and wales. this evening it stays cloudy and rather damp for england and wales were further pulses of rain running west to east. further north, apart from a few showers around the scotland it will be largely driver clear spells.

temperatures in single digits across the north, compared to ten and 12 across parts of england and wales. starting off in a mild note sunday morning. lots of cloud around with a weather front morning. lots of cloud around with a weatherfront spinning morning. lots of cloud around with a weather front spinning north over the rac affecting north wales first then affecting northern ireland, parts of northern england and gradually across scotland through the afternoon. it will be brighter and cooler to the north of it and to the south of it double figures, very mild indeed for the time of year at around 15 celsius. limited spells of sunshine. to the west, this deep area of low pressure during sunday night skirts past the uk, it could bring severe gales to the west of scotland but that will clear during monday morning, leaving a legacy of some fresh air across scotland and northern ireland, sunny spells, blustery showers, wintry on the hills. england and wales will see lots of cloud, a weather front trapped here so some areas quite wet with persistent rain but temperatures around 10—13. that

weather front players from england and wales on into tuesday. stays windy and wet for the north of the uk through tuesday and wednesday but this area of high pressure begins to build across the south. it will settle things down and influence the weather as we move towards the end of the week, right across the uk, and you will notice the milder, sticking with us. temperatures above the seasonal norm, an unsettled start then it settles down with light winds, and we will start to see a lot of cloud around, limited sunshine and brightness. hello, i'm shaun ley with the headlines. unless the government puts further restrictions in place, the uk faces a abstention wave of on

the uk faces a abstention wave of on the cross —— omicron. cases have been recorded in the 2a hours to saturday. it's the uk's biggestjump in infections to date. new rules will be voted on by mps on tuesday, according to government sources. in the united states, at least 70 people have been killed by tornadoes focusing on the state of kentucky. this has been the most devastating tornado for our state's history, and for those who have seen it and what it's done here and elsewhere, it is indescribable. the it's done here and elsewhere, it is indescribable.— it's done here and elsewhere, it is indescribable. the uk government formed rough _ indescribable. the uk government formed rough so _ indescribable. the uk government formed rough so it _ indescribable. the uk government formed rough so it will— indescribable. the uk government formed rough so it will face - formed rough so it will face consequences if it invades ukraine. —— informed russia. which